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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,196
    edited December 2021
    Cookie said:

    Just as an observation, this is a very similar story to that which did for Matt Hancock - I.e. having a nice time while specifically denying the opportunity for that specific nice time to the rest of us.
    And yes, both Hancock and Boris could probably, technically, say what they were doing was within the rules. And in neither case would it cut much ice.

    Although, the allegation isn't that Boris was involved at these gathering, other than when there was the senior individual leaving, where he gave a short speech, which probably is just about ok to get away with it. However, he has clearly lied about the existence of the regular knees up.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    your reminder that almost 2,000 people have been prosecuted at Westminster magistrates court for ignoring lockdowns, attending parties and breaking quarantine during this pandemic
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1468313462514364422
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    I find it fascinating how leaky this Government has become, even post-Cummings.

    LIke a North-East Coast roof post Storm Arwen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
    I can positively smell the ammonia of your anger, and I'm not surprised at all.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,476
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    So they will applaud Boris Johnson for sticking it to Boris Johnson?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,827
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Magnus Carlsen defeats Ian Nepomniachtchi in Game 9 of World Chess Championship – as it happened

    Nepomniachtchi makes fatal blunder in Game 9
    Norwegian leads 6-3 in best-of-14 title showdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2021/dec/07/magnus-carlsen-v-ian-nepomniachtchi-world-chess-championship-game-9-live

    I don't play chess but I find this series surprisingly gripping.
    The fatal blunder thing is becoming a bit cliche.
    Nepomniachtchi must be burnt out from the epic game 6. It wasn't just a fatal blunder - it was something that most club players would have avoided.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    How any times during this pandemic now is it that you “thought you had covid”? We lose count.

    Time to man up and admit you over-reacted to some minor virus or cold.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    There's quite a lot of bollocks on twitter. He was making a joke about the whole story at a speech a few days ago.
    Even when bashing the government, Guido is not worth “turning the channel” for.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
    Thanks, but there are many in worse situations. I'm in the fortunate situation that three out of my kids grandparents are within half an hour. They were denied hugs for a year, but they actually saw their grandparents not too irregularly during 2020. I know plenty of others who didn't see parents and grandparents for well over a year. It is really them for whom your piss and mine should boil.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
    Are you seriously suggesting that number 10, Beth Rigby and others ruined Christmas for us?
    Most people like to 'follow the rules'.

    So yes, Boris did ruin christmas for loads. The least you can expect from the powers that be is to follow their own rules & guidelines.
  • I am sure a total coincidence

    Allegra Stratton is married to Spectator editor James Forsyth - the best man at Rishi Sunak's wedding. She worked on Robert Peston's ITV show alongside Cassian Horowitz, who is now special advisor to Sunak. This footage has now been leaked to ITV.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    edited December 2021

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    My claim to fame is getting detained by the personal protection lot after "assaulting" Denis Thatcher...I accidentally knocked him flying coming around a corner and the plod thought i was attacking him, so I got jumped on. When I was finally released, he was actually very nice about it all.

    Good job it was before all the days of camera phones etc as I am sure I would have been all over social media in minutes.
    Denis was a good old boy. I'm sure he had a large gin and tonic and took it all his stride :D
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078

    I am sure a total coincidence

    Allegra Stratton is married to Spectator editor James Forsyth - the best man at Rishi Sunak's wedding. She worked on Robert Peston's ITV show alongside Cassian Horowitz, who is now special advisor to Sunak. This footage has now been leaked to ITV.

    There are people who know far more about this stuff than me, but I always assumed Allegra would seek revenge after Carrie shunted her sideways.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    Here is how Britain’s head of state marked the funeral of the man she had been married to for 73 years. It might not seem immediately obvious in the reaction to news that the Prime Minister was throwing parties at Number 10 during that period, but I have a feeling this matters. https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1468298704197140485/photo/1
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,824
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    So they will applaud Boris Johnson for sticking it to Boris Johnson?
    There was a poll on it this morning. From memory, 67% didn't believe there hadn't been a party, some similar figure disapproved, and only 13% approved on the basis that the staff had worked hard and deserved a break.

    How much people care, though, I dunno.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    Foxy will no doubt answer in a more informed way.

    I can tell you though that I had a cold a few months ago that totally wiped me out. I'm sure it was a cold - tests like you all negative for CV, and it was all about common cold symptoms. But my word! I really was delerious for about 12h - I have zero memory of that period. I remember waking up and having no idea about anything.

    Just a cold though really (almost sure).

    I think right at the start of the pandemic I did have covid - unstoppable coughing - nothing like flu or a cold.


    We're all getting the after-effects of isolation. What would have been brushed off by our immune systems isn't.

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,622
    Cookie said:

    Just as an observation, this is a very similar story to that which did for Matt Hancock - I.e. having a nice time while specifically denying the opportunity for that specific nice time to the rest of us.
    And yes, both Hancock and Boris could probably, technically, say what they were doing was within the rules. And in neither case would it cut much ice.

    I think that's about right.

    I don't have the incentive to look up exactly what the rules and guidance where at the time, I suspect that it was just within those rules. and frankly I never supported the lockdowns and other covid rules, I am however frustrated by this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    edited December 2021

    I am sure a total coincidence

    Allegra Stratton is married to Spectator editor James Forsyth - the best man at Rishi Sunak's wedding. She worked on Robert Peston's ITV show alongside Cassian Horowitz, who is now special advisor to Sunak. This footage has now been leaked to ITV.

    Fascinating detail. The Spectator is turning on its erstwhile editor and most famous alumnus?

    I'm unconvinced. Boris gave them Brexit.

    Also, who the F would want to take over now as PM, if this did somehow bring down Bojo? Absolutely awful timing, with winter ahead and Omicron the Almighty on the horizon. As others have said, it is far better to let Boris absorb all the damage, and THEN heave him overboard some time late next year, or whatever



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    On No 10 position tonight, govt source says 'this line won’t hold. As bad as Cummings road trip for sure.'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468315695448576008
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    Trudi is my MP. It is rural where the main industries are farming, tourism and Sellafield. The idea that she was so concerned about pets in Afghanistan that she was able to overrule the Defence Secretary is for the birds.

    I hope she puts the boot into Boris.
  • After watching that video all I can say is there's little wonder Allegra's televised press conferences never happened. She looks awful in that. 🤨
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    There's quite a lot of bollocks on twitter. He was making a joke about the whole story at a speech a few days ago.
    Even when bashing the government, Guido is not worth “turning the channel” for.
    I wouldn’t give him the clicks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,196
    edited December 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    My claim to fame is getting detained by the personal protection lot after "assaulting" Denis Thatcher...I accidentally knocked him flying coming around a corner and the plod thought i was attacking him, so I got jumped on. When I was finally released, he was actually very nice about it all.

    Good job it was before all the days of camera phones etc as I am sure I would have been all over social media in minutes.
    Denis was a good old boy. I'm sure he had a large gin and tonic and took it all his stride :D
    I was only a kid at the time, but if I remember correctly he apologised to my parents for the overzealous reaction of the police and left money for us to have lunch.

    To be fair to the plod, I was the size of a fully grown adult even by that age, and all the plod would have seen is the aftermath of Denis getting crunched like Boris crunched that Japanese kid. I was face down on the tarmac of the car park in seconds.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Scott_xP said:

    Here is how Britain’s head of state marked the funeral of the man she had been married to for 73 years. It might not seem immediately obvious in the reaction to news that the Prime Minister was throwing parties at Number 10 during that period, but I have a feeling this matters. https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1468298704197140485/photo/1

    I was thinking the other day Her Majesty started her reign with Churchill and may (hopefully not, but may) end her reign with Boris Johnson.

    What happened in the intervening 70 years?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    Scott_xP said:

    On No 10 position tonight, govt source says 'this line won’t hold. As bad as Cummings road trip for sure.'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468315695448576008

    Think it's worse tbf, Cummings was trying to do the best for his family even though he was lying his arse off. An after work bash doesn't have the same human element mitigation.
  • Leon said:

    I am sure a total coincidence

    Allegra Stratton is married to Spectator editor James Forsyth - the best man at Rishi Sunak's wedding. She worked on Robert Peston's ITV show alongside Cassian Horowitz, who is now special advisor to Sunak. This footage has now been leaked to ITV.

    Fascinating detail. The Spectator is turning on its erstwhile editor and most famous alumnus?

    I'm unconvinced. Boris gave them Brexit.

    Also, who the F would want to take over now as PM, if this did somehow bring down Bojo? Absolutely awful timing, with winter ahead and Omicron the Almighty on the horizon. As others have said, it is far better to let Boris absorb all the damage, and THEN heave him overboard some time late next year, or whatever


    The novelty of Brexit has surely long worn off. In fact elements of the Speccie are now grumbling that Boris's botched version killed the dream.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    Scott_xP said:

    On No 10 position tonight, govt source says 'this line won’t hold. As bad as Cummings road trip for sure.'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468315695448576008

    Worse. During lockdown, few of us were pining for a drive to Barnard Castle, whereas during Christmas 2020 very many would like to have been with friends and family.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    How any times during this pandemic now is it that you “thought you had covid”? We lose count.

    Time to man up and admit you over-reacted to some minor virus or cold.
    Ignore that Leon. It’s a very good question. Have you seen the pictures of the drunken lab fight where important batches from midlands and southwest being tested.

    The seriousness was that people told no, went round to see the elderly family and into work etc.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,220
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    your reminder that almost 2,000 people have been prosecuted at Westminster magistrates court for ignoring lockdowns, attending parties and breaking quarantine during this pandemic
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1468313462514364422

    Nothing more to say.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    Foxy will no doubt answer in a more informed way.

    I can tell you though that I had a cold a few months ago that totally wiped me out. I'm sure it was a cold - tests like you all negative for CV, and it was all about common cold symptoms. But my word! I really was delerious for about 12h - I have zero memory of that period. I remember waking up and having no idea about anything.

    Just a cold though really (almost sure).

    I think right at the start of the pandemic I did have covid - unstoppable coughing - nothing like flu or a cold.


    We're all getting the after-effects of isolation. What would have been brushed off by our immune systems isn't.

    Yes. Looking at my symptoms - and presuming the Covid tests were accurate - I reckon I had some kind of viral bronchitis, perhaps. Dunno

    it's just the anosmia which nags. Such an odd symptom

    It has also given me tremendous sympathy for a very old friend from my Uni days, who has been anosmic since birth. I've always rather shrugged at his problem - not in a cruel way, it just never seemed that much of a handicap, unlike deafness or blindness

    I now realise it is a huge limitation on the joys of life
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,596
    Is there anyone on here who would defend this? I would guess a few would give it a go…
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    I’m still not willing to go there.

    I think Boris v Corbyn is pretty much on par, but the people behind Corbyn scared me more than the people behind Boris.
    If Johnson as PM is the equivalent of being garrotted, Corbyn would have been the equivalent of being slow sliced while at the same time being buggered with a red hot poker.

    They were both awful as a choice. But there is no doubt, even now, that Corbyn would have been the worse option.
    Corbyn minority vs Johnson landslide though?
    All right, being buggered with a poker that's not red hot.
    Corbyn propped up by Sturgeon - whose interest in leaving the UK as a functioning state long-term is nil - would have been even worse than pure Corbyn.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    If omicron requires another lockdown, Boris Johnson is no longer in a position to demand it.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1468317198963855360
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,662
    edited December 2021
    Meanwhile, the story is conspicuous by its absence on the BBC News front page. Scrub that - they've literally just now put it up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    I’m still not willing to go there.

    I think Boris v Corbyn is pretty much on par, but the people behind Corbyn scared me more than the people behind Boris.
    If Johnson as PM is the equivalent of being garrotted, Corbyn would have been the equivalent of being slow sliced while at the same time being buggered with a red hot poker.

    They were both awful as a choice. But there is no doubt, even now, that Corbyn would have been the worse option.
    Corbyn minority vs Johnson landslide though?
    All right, being buggered with a poker that's not red hot.
    Corbyn propped up by Sturgeon - whose interest in leaving the UK as a functioning state long-term is nil - would have been even worse than pure Corbyn.
    Leaving the UK yes; not wrecking it all. You're just projectring current Conservative policy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091

    Is there anyone on here who would defend this? I would guess a few would give it a go…

    ..another job for the Thompsonator?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    edited December 2021

    Meanwhile, the story is conspicuous by its absence on the BBC News front page.

    Oddly enough Ms Kuennsberg is tweeting about it in some detail.

    Edit: as ScottXP noted earlier, I see.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak
  • Meanwhile, the story is conspicuous by its absence on the BBC News front page.

    It's just appeared, as a little caption. Even the BBC's nervousness has its limits.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518

    Meanwhile, the story is conspicuous by its absence on the BBC News front page. Scrub that - they've literally just now put it up.

    NDBC now 🤣
  • AslanAslan Posts: 895
    Tory politicians must be incredibly frustrated by how they built a new alignment that gave them a sustainable majority of the electorate, and it is being thrown away not for any policy goal or philosophy, but entirely because of irresponsible choices for personal benefit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,230

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    edited December 2021

    Is there anyone on here who would defend this? I would guess a few would give it a go…

    Not me! I think it's absolutely terrible and if the the police lay charges I think he'll have to go.

    It's as bad as what Hanky Panky did (minus the hanky panky... though we still don't know what actually went on at the party ;) so there's still time for that angle...)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,827
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    On No 10 position tonight, govt source says 'this line won’t hold. As bad as Cummings road trip for sure.'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468315695448576008

    I guess the crucial question is whether Boris was there or not.

    If Rishi is really stirring in the background - Gordon Brown style - does that really bode well were he to take over?

    Petty feuding as a replacement for actual government seems to be the problem, not the solution.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    On No 10 position tonight, govt source says 'this line won’t hold. As bad as Cummings road trip for sure.'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468315695448576008

    Worse. During lockdown, few of us were pining for a drive to Barnard Castle, whereas during Christmas 2020 very many would like to have been with friends and family.
    Speak for yourself, I'm always happy to drive to Barnard Castle.
  • IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn has been caught repeatedly breaking the rules.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn has been caught repeatedly breaking the rules.
    But he wasn't PM, enunciating and enforcing [sic] them.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,567
    Scott_xP said:

    If omicron requires another lockdown, Boris Johnson is no longer in a position to demand it.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1468317198963855360

    Fair. Then again, is anybody else?

    The prospect of relief through vaccination was the only thing that made that massive lockdown that started about a year ago bearable. If there's another one, the only conclusion is that lockdowns will go on in cycles forever. At which point, why bother to comply? Far better to roll the dice than to live like that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Aslan said:

    Tory politicians must be incredibly frustrated by how they built a new alignment that gave them a sustainable majority of the electorate, and it is being thrown away not for any policy goal or philosophy, but entirely because of irresponsible choices for personal benefit.

    If they have to push him and Carrie under the proverbial bus to keep the show on the road... they will! ;)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045

    Scott_xP said:

    your reminder that almost 2,000 people have been prosecuted at Westminster magistrates court for ignoring lockdowns, attending parties and breaking quarantine during this pandemic
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1468313462514364422

    Nothing more to say.
    I remember Greater Manchester Police gleefully tweeting about their success in breaking up children's birthday parties.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,230
    I think it’s clear that almost nobody strictly adhered to lockdown rules. No surprise there. What does stick in the craw is Boris and his hectoring buddies lecturing the public while enjoying a good old screw themselves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,196
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn has been caught repeatedly breaking the rules.
    But he wasn't PM, enunciating and enforcing [sic] them.
    Oh I am not equivocating with what Cumming, Hannock etc have done. But Nick trying to say no no no, he would never do such a thing is demonstrable bullshit. Corbyn has treated COVID restrictions as optional repeatedly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,029
    edited December 2021

    After watching that video all I can say is there's little wonder Allegra's televised press conferences never happened. She looks awful in that. 🤨

    Now up on the BBC front page.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59572149

    I can usually rely on people complaining that the BBC are ‘ignoring’ a story, only for them to report it shortly after.
    Unless it’s their own scoop, they are cautious about posting news precipitately.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn has been caught repeatedly breaking the rules.
    But he wasn't PM, enunciating and enforcing [sic] them.
    Oh I am not equivocating with what Cumming, Hannock etc have done. But Nick trying to say no no no, he would never do such a thing is demonstrable bullshit.
    NP? Oh, you mean Mr Corbyn. But did he have mass parties at the seat of government at a critical time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    edited December 2021
    The significance of the leaked Stratton video is little to do with covid regulations, but a further sign that even within number ten there are those whose patience with the clown-in-charge has run out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage
  • At least today we have learnt that the next time there is an international humanitarian crisis that needs action by civil servants and ministers, we can tempt them into staying beyond 5pm by offering cheese, wine and party games.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    After watching that video all I can say is there's little wonder Allegra's televised press conferences never happened. She looks awful in that. 🤨

    Now up on the BBC front page.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59572149
    Thgat's actrually quite severe on HMG. But with an intriguing weasel exit right there at the end.
  • 20 goals by 7 December.

    Salah is the GOAT. Discuss.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    Foxy will no doubt answer in a more informed way.

    I can tell you though that I had a cold a few months ago that totally wiped me out. I'm sure it was a cold - tests like you all negative for CV, and it was all about common cold symptoms. But my word! I really was delerious for about 12h - I have zero memory of that period. I remember waking up and having no idea about anything.

    Just a cold though really (almost sure).

    I think right at the start of the pandemic I did have covid - unstoppable coughing - nothing like flu or a cold.


    We're all getting the after-effects of isolation. What would have been brushed off by our immune systems isn't.

    Yes. Looking at my symptoms - and presuming the Covid tests were accurate - I reckon I had some kind of viral bronchitis, perhaps. Dunno

    it's just the anosmia which nags. Such an odd symptom

    It has also given me tremendous sympathy for a very old friend from my Uni days, who has been anosmic since birth. I've always rather shrugged at his problem - not in a cruel way, it just never seemed that much of a handicap, unlike deafness or blindness

    I now realise it is a huge limitation on the joys of life
    I'm sure you're not the sort of chap to be blindsided by this anyway. Forwards :)

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,230
    Cookie said:

    Just as an observation, this is a very similar story to that which did for Matt Hancock - I.e. having a nice time while specifically denying the opportunity for that specific nice time to the rest of us.
    And yes, both Hancock and Boris could probably, technically, say what they were doing was within the rules. And in neither case would it cut much ice.

    Correct, it’s the hypocrisy, not the act. In fact, resorting to the minutiae of the technicalities makes it worse. And keeps it in the news too!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    At least today we have learnt that the next time there is an international humanitarian crisis that needs action by civil servants and ministers, we can tempt them into staying beyond 5pm by offering cheese, wine and party games.

    D'you think they need, er, stimulants to keep up their energy levels? There are those glucose tablets one can buy.
  • IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn has been caught repeatedly breaking the rules.
    Piers or Jezza?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,196
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage

    The claim in the Mirror stories are that no he didn't attend what appears to have been regular knees up. There was some drinks for a senior civil servant leaving, where he came in, gave a short speech and left.

    The problem is a) did he know / encourage them and b) he has clearly lied about them.

    Everything we know about Boris, you can see him egging them on....oh yeahhh well you know nudge nudge, wink wink, you lot are working jolly hard, if I was to leave at 4pm on Friday and you know somebody tripped and fell and a load of bottles of plonk came out the back of the ruck, well it would be a waste not to drink them....vroom vroom.
  • IanB2 said:

    Is there anyone on here who would defend this? I would guess a few would give it a go…

    ..another job for the Thompsonator?
    Pass.

    I'd rather talk about the football. Or Cricket. Or just about anything else. 😉
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Yawn. From memory Corbo himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party - too many people during the dark (hopefully never to be repeated) days of the Rule of Six.
    Corbyn has been caught repeatedly breaking the rules.
    Piers or Jezza?
    Both lol! ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,230
    One good thing from Partygate: no more lockdowns.

    The public will just tell the lying git to sod off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    At least today we have learnt that the next time there is an international humanitarian crisis that needs action by civil servants and ministers, we can tempt them into staying beyond 5pm by offering cheese, wine and party games.

    In times of austerity, perhaps we could double up by suggesting Sardines for both aspects?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    Leon said:

    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage

    The claim in the Mirror stories are that no he didn't attend what appears to have been regular knees up. There was some drinks for a senior civil servant leaving, where he came in, gave a short speech and left.

    The problem is a) did he know / encourage them and b) he has clearly lied about them.
    Quiz? Secret Santa? I used to work in the civil service (or more precisely in a quango still very much marked by the CS ethos) and I can never remember those in a leaving do.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518
    They were here. Where’s Big G and HYUFD gone? Has anyone seen the Odd Couple?

    What’s the point of a spin team if they are always hiding in the kitchen at parties?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    Nigelb said:

    After watching that video all I can say is there's little wonder Allegra's televised press conferences never happened. She looks awful in that. 🤨

    Now up on the BBC front page.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59572149

    I can usually rely on people complaining that the BBC are ‘ignoring’ a story, only for them to report it shortly after.
    Unless it’s their own scoop, they are cautious about posting news precipitately.
    “has Nigel complained about it yet?” is a question often asked around editorial tables at BBC HQ, while the grunts are keeping half an eye trained on live-streamed PB discussions on one of their many tv screens…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    They were here. Where’s Big G and HYUFD gone? Has anyone seen the Odd Couple?

    What’s the point of a spin team if they are always hiding in the kitchen at parties?

    Fridge.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    edited December 2021
    The party is featuring prominently on BBC and Sky and the video has put the cat amongst the pigeons

    I have no idea how this ends, but the public seem to accept it was a party irrespective of any denials by Boris and this must be very unsettling to conservative mps

    Watching Rees Mogg was sickening and he is one of several conservative mps I would really like to see unseated at the next GE

    On the subject of public opinion, North Staffordshire is perfectly timed to give Boris and his party a huge wake up call

    I would also comment that if the police investigate and find it was a party then Boris is indeed trouble
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042
    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    My Vicar buried Fred West.

    Yeah, that's a rubbish one but it's the best I can do.
  • I am sure a total coincidence

    Allegra Stratton is married to Spectator editor James Forsyth - the best man at Rishi Sunak's wedding. She worked on Robert Peston's ITV show alongside Cassian Horowitz, who is now special advisor to Sunak. This footage has now been leaked to ITV.

    She also worked on BBC Newsnight before heading to No. 10.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518
    I don’t think I am nearly smart enough to second guess a select committee report. But.

    What I saw of the committee, I think they say yes we got 15K out, but was it the right 15K, or a shambles operation didn’t get enough of the right people out? the operation too easily pulled this way that way by various partial lobbying, like news organisations, and making different types of lists confusing the effort.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    Wow!
    Did you notice anything funny about the drains?
  • The party is featuring prominently on BBC and Sky and the video has put the cat amongst the pigeons

    I have no idea how this ends, but the public seem to accept it was a party irrespective of any denials by Boris and this must be very unsettling to conservative mps

    Watching Rees Mogg was sickening and he is one of several conservative mps I would really like to see unseated at the next GE

    On the subject of public opinion, North Staffordshire is perfectly timed to give Boris and his party a huge wake up call

    I would also comment that if the police investigate and find it was a party then Boris is indeed trouble

    Zero chance the police and CPS can't find a reason to avoid doing their job here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    edited December 2021

    The party is featuring prominently on BBC and Sky and the video has put the cat amongst the pigeons

    I have no idea how this ends, but the public seem to accept it was a party irrespective of any denials by Boris and this must be very unsettling to conservative mps

    Watching Rees Mogg was sickening and he is one of several conservative mps I would really like to see unseated at the next GE

    On the subject of public opinion, North Staffordshire is perfectly timed to give Boris and his party a huge wake up call

    I would also comment that if the police investigate and find it was a party then Boris is indeed trouble

    “There was food and drink and nibbles and games and it went on until after midnight with lots of people crowded into a small space but, oh no (…your honour…), it certainly wasn’t a party……”
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    My Vicar buried Fred West.

    Yeah, that's a rubbish one but it's the best I can do.
    Good Christian.

    One wonders about the smells in Cranley Gardens.

    Forebear of mine lived in the same house as Burke of Burke and Hare. Fortunately before they took an interest in furtheting the advance of medical education.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,196
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage

    The claim in the Mirror stories are that no he didn't attend what appears to have been regular knees up. There was some drinks for a senior civil servant leaving, where he came in, gave a short speech and left.

    The problem is a) did he know / encourage them and b) he has clearly lied about them.
    Quiz? Secret Santa? I used to work in the civil service (or more precisely in a quango still very much marked by the CS ethos) and I can never remember those in a leaving do.
    From the Mirror report....

    The Prime Minister gave a speech at a packed leaving do for a top aide last November when the country was in the grip of its second lockdown...Then just days before Christmas, with London in tier 3 restrictions, members of his top team held their own festive bash in Downing Street. Officials knocked back glasses of wine during a Christmas quiz and a Secret Santa while the rest of the country was forced to stay at home....But the leaving do still took place on November 27 while the unofficial Christmas bash, which the PM did not attend, happened on December 18.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-broke-covid-lockdown-25585238

    As I say, I can definitely see old Boris saying while I couldn't possibly attend such an event, if one was to happen, I never heard about it....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,827

    One good thing from Partygate: no more lockdowns.

    The public will just tell the lying git to sod off.

    If Omicron really is as transmissible as some are fearing a lockdown will make sod all difference anyway. What was R during the last one? 0.8 or thereabouts?

    We're back to the original Plan A (March 2020), whether we like it or not.
  • They were here. Where’s Big G and HYUFD gone? Has anyone seen the Odd Couple?

    What’s the point of a spin team if they are always hiding in the kitchen at parties?

    I have just posted
  • Aslan said:

    Tory politicians must be incredibly frustrated by how they built a new alignment that gave them a sustainable majority of the electorate, and it is being thrown away not for any policy goal or philosophy, but entirely because of irresponsible choices for personal benefit.

    Yes. I am a constant critic of Peppa and his idiots when they do wrong and stupid. Not because I am ramping the Labour party, but because we used to have standards. Having a majority of 80 does not mean its ok to run the government to line your supporter's pockets and to lie and cheat and demean the rule of law. Whats more every other Tory leader would have been horrified of such acts.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,220
    edited December 2021
    The Mail includes the telling detail that this fake "press conference" was in the £2.6 million "briefing room, that has now been ditched."

    That's the kind of detail that really matters to people, because it feeds the growing sense of arrogance. Decadence.
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,230
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Indeed.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,257
    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If omicron requires another lockdown, Boris Johnson is no longer in a position to demand it.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1468317198963855360

    Fair. Then again, is anybody else?

    The prospect of relief through vaccination was the only thing that made that massive lockdown that started about a year ago bearable. If there's another one, the only conclusion is that lockdowns will go on in cycles forever. At which point, why bother to comply? Far better to roll the dice than to live like that.
    Sort of relevant but mask compliance on the train today was low - about 50%. I get the feeling that people don't take the threat seriously. Perhaps they are resigned to taking their chances with whatever new Covid strain there is.

    If there is a virus that kills children rather than the old / unvaccinated, then maybe people would look at the situation differently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091

    The Mail includes the telling detail that this fake "press conference" was in the £2.6 million "briefing room, that has now been ditched."

    That's the kind of detail that really matters, because it feeds the growing sense of arrogance. Decadence.

    True. We could have had a foot or two of garden bridge for that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    My Vicar buried Fred West.

    Yeah, that's a rubbish one but it's the best I can do.
    Good Christian.

    One wonders about the smells in Cranley Gardens.

    Forebear of mine lived in the same house as Burke of Burke and Hare. Fortunately before they took an interest in furtheting the advance of medical education.
    He was a very remarkable character one way and another (the Revd Robert Simpson, not Fred West). Couldn't preach a good sermon to save his life and his services were so modern even Graham Kendrick would have blinked, but he was undoubtedly a force.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,720

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I think you must have misunderstood.

    The calculation is based on the rate of hospitalisation for a given number of cases today. It reflects precisely the position we are in now, not the position we were in at the start.

    Except that - as I said - it makes the very optimistic assumption that Omicron will produce only half as many hospitalisations per infection as Delta.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    Blimey Miss Cycle. That's not someone you want popping round to share a cup of Nescafe with...
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    ...
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    After watching that video all I can say is there's little wonder Allegra's televised press conferences never happened. She looks awful in that. 🤨

    Now up on the BBC front page.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59572149

    I can usually rely on people complaining that the BBC are ‘ignoring’ a story, only for them to report it shortly after.
    Unless it’s their own scoop, they are cautious about posting news precipitately.
    “has Nigel complained about it yet?” is a question often asked around editorial tables at BBC HQ, while the grunts are keeping half an eye trained on live-streamed PB discussions on one of their many tv screens…
    He has!

    https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1468314095720239104?s=21
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    IanB2 said:

    The Mail includes the telling detail that this fake "press conference" was in the £2.6 million "briefing room, that has now been ditched."

    That's the kind of detail that really matters, because it feeds the growing sense of arrogance. Decadence.

    True. We could have had a foot or two of garden bridge for that.
    Bit more than that. Though a couple of feet is about right for the Northern Ireland bridge.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,476

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Indeed.
    No Indeed about it because they are his bloody regulations. Unless you think they were imposed on him against his will by Ther Science or something?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,622
    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If omicron requires another lockdown, Boris Johnson is no longer in a position to demand it.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1468317198963855360

    Fair. Then again, is anybody else?

    The prospect of relief through vaccination was the only thing that made that massive lockdown that started about a year ago bearable. If there's another one, the only conclusion is that lockdowns will go on in cycles forever. At which point, why bother to comply? Far better to roll the dice than to live like that.
    Sort of relevant but mask compliance on the train today was low - about 50%. I get the feeling that people don't take the threat seriously. Perhaps they are resigned to taking their chances with whatever new Covid strain there is.

    If there is a virus that kills children rather than the old / unvaccinated, then maybe people would look at the situation differently.
    It might also be partly that the the people most worried about getting coved, who are most likely to where masks all the time when out, have decided not to take the train?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage

    The claim in the Mirror stories are that no he didn't attend what appears to have been regular knees up. There was some drinks for a senior civil servant leaving, where he came in, gave a short speech and left.

    The problem is a) did he know / encourage them and b) he has clearly lied about them.
    Quiz? Secret Santa? I used to work in the civil service (or more precisely in a quango still very much marked by the CS ethos) and I can never remember those in a leaving do.
    From the Mirror report....

    The Prime Minister gave a speech at a packed leaving do for a top aide last November when the country was in the grip of its second lockdown...Then just days before Christmas, with London in tier 3 restrictions, members of his top team held their own festive bash in Downing Street. Officials knocked back glasses of wine during a Christmas quiz and a Secret Santa while the rest of the country was forced to stay at home....But the leaving do still took place on November 27 while the unofficial Christmas bash, which the PM did not attend, happened on December 18.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-broke-covid-lockdown-25585238

    As I say, I can definitely see old Boris saying while I couldn't possibly attend such an event, if one was to happen, I never heard about it....
    When did the pubs have to close last year? I would have sworn I was in one in early Dec, as was going to arrange a birthday drink, but they told us lockdown was looming
This discussion has been closed.