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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

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  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 605
    edited December 2021

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Didn't see my girlfriend for 6 weeks and didn't leave the health board for months.

    The sum total of human misery last winter...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,029
    ydoethur said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Although it can hardly have been a surprise after Cummings, surely?

    Incidentally @NigelB it's easy to spot which of Cummings' ideas are bad ones. All of them are.
    That is why I referred to you earlier today. I knew I could rely on you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    eek said:

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST.

    A constituency MP can overrule the Defence Secretary and the Foreign Secretary.

    Downing Street have just responded to top
    @theousherwood scoop: "This was an operational decision. Neither the PM nor Mrs Johnson were involved. This letter was nothing to do with Ms Harrison’s role as the PM’s PPS, she was acting in her capacity as a constituency MP.


    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468295067228164100

    LOL! That is a hilarious excuse even by Boris standards.
    It's like a pair of boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
    I mean.. how long can MPs put up with this?

    Bojo thinks he’s Max Verstappen - rules don’t apply to him…
    You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

    The problem the Tories have is that currently Boris is fooling enough of the people enough of the time that he still looks like a reasonable option.
    This is the guy who literally dressed up as a policeman the other day..
    Did he shake hands with two policemen at once?

    I just ask because we all know he's quite good at grabbing hold of pairs of nickers...
  • Farooq said:

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    And, funnily, you'll be umpire.
    I will leave that to others
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    No 10 still sticking to line tonight that Christmas party didn't take place - despite astonishing leaked video.

    "There was no Christmas party. Covid rules have been followed at all times."

    Feels like they're stuck - if they admit it, they've not only lied, they've broken law.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468301778273849349
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,383

    Farooq said:

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    And, funnily, you'll be umpire.
    I will leave that to others
    GBNews, The Telegraph, Guido...
  • PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    At least we can be fairly sure that, unlike the previous LOTO, Starmer wont lead on a letter he has had from a voter in Preston who has lost one of her daily bus routes down her street.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189
    Whereas, the Cummings Barnard Castle trip and Hancock thing were bad because they were breaking unnecessary rules. Going outside should never have been banned and Hancock was breaking rules that were left too long after the vaccines/lockdown had done their thing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    Quite a good line this...

    People across the country followed the rules, even when that meant being separated from loved ones.

    They had a right to expect the government was doing the same.

    To lie and to laugh about those lies is shameful.

    We have a Prime Minister who’s socially distanced from the truth.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1468302393154670592
    https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1468285179919749120
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Dear people of North Shropshire.

    He'll never be more vulnerable than he is right now.

    Vote Liberal Democrat and change the world!

    (They won't but it's a delightful dream.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,295
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Last Christmas we had my MIL for Christmas lunch because she was in our bubble since her daughter did all her shopping for her. How could your other half not be in your bubble? My son went to a school dance with his girlfriend. It was a bit weird, being held in tents in the School grounds, but they did it. And I was mixing with the same people every day at work without masks unless we were moving around the building. And these staff all worked together every day, all day too. So they are in a bubble. And had the party in their office. Really struggling to understand the hysteria about this.

    There is so much this government can be criticised for but this is just silly.

    You must not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble. Your support bubble cannot include more than 2 households.

    That's why, we both had parents who were shielding, she had a brother that was also shielding.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Scott_xP said:

    Quite a good line this...

    People across the country followed the rules, even when that meant being separated from loved ones.

    They had a right to expect the government was doing the same.

    To lie and to laugh about those lies is shameful.

    We have a Prime Minister who’s socially distanced from the truth.


    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1468302393154670592
    https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1468285179919749120

    And is trying to mask it instead.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,125
    Isn't it amazing that so many party animals have stayed quiet for almost 12 months, until today.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,476

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    At least we can be fairly sure that, unlike the previous LOTO, Starmer wont lead on a letter he has had from a voter in Preston who has lost one of her daily bus routes down her street.
    Would be quite effective. One voter whose sister has been tortured to death in Kabul, another whose mum died of covid in january.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    PMQs tomorrow will be fun.

    Bold prediction. Big G calls it a disaster for Starmer.

    It he cannot win 6 - 0 tomorrow then he is a lost cause
    And, funnily, you'll be umpire.
    I will leave that to others
    GBNews, The Telegraph, Guido...
    Guardian are often quite fair
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189
    dr_spyn said:

    Isn't it amazing that so many party animals have stayed quiet for almost 12 months, until today.

    Yes, exactly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    edited December 2021

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    Are we now talking about flying dogs or downing street night clubbing - I cant keep up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,195
    edited December 2021
    dr_spyn said:

    Isn't it amazing that so many party animals have stayed quiet for almost 12 months, until today.

    It feels like the push is on....as I say look for who is saying very quiet and away from the limelight.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,390
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot 1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    It will be interesting to see if Macron's first round score holds up even if he stops looking like the automatic winner. He could end up as another Hollande.
    Indeed, and I wonder whether his reaction to losing will be dissimilar to Trump.
    Much as I loathe Macron, I don't think he'd claim it was all a rigged election and make wild unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud.
    Or, indeed, attempt to stay in power.

    Or incite a riot.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045
    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,789

    DavidL said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Last Christmas we had my MIL for Christmas lunch because she was in our bubble since her daughter did all her shopping for her. How could your other half not be in your bubble? My son went to a school dance with his girlfriend. It was a bit weird, being held in tents in the School grounds, but they did it. And I was mixing with the same people every day at work without masks unless we were moving around the building. And these staff all worked together every day, all day too. So they are in a bubble. And had the party in their office. Really struggling to understand the hysteria about this.

    There is so much this government can be criticised for but this is just silly.

    You must not form a support bubble with a household that is part of another support bubble. Your support bubble cannot include more than 2 households.

    That's why.
    If they were in the office together during the day, then from a covid transmission perspective, what difference does it make if they have cheese and wine in the evening?
  • How many months until Boris goes?

    If I were an ambitious Conservative Minister, I think my ideal would have been for BoJo to stay until early Summer '23; the next year or two will be grim for people's wallets and I'd rather not take the rap for that.
    Kick Bozza in the nuts in May, PM by September. Feelgood budget, feeding through to pay packets in April '24 and a GE win in May '24. Job's a goodun.

    That requires the PM to stay upright and not tarnish the party brand for a year and a half, which seems increasingly unlikely.

    So- take the risk of going for BoJo now, or leave him to soil himself a bit longer? I don't know.

    The other (very speculative, we're not there yet) question is whether BoJo could end up like late John Major- obviously a dead PM walking, but his internal opponents choosing to rebuild in opposition.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    i'm sorry but this recording turning out to be the only thing that came out of the government building that £2.6m white house ripoff press conference room that they ended up never using is the most delicious Chekhov's Gun reveal i've seen in years

    https://twitter.com/vampthebs/status/1468302267543691267
    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    I have elective surgery scheduled for Monday. I'm expecting a record forth cancellation. I wonder how late in the day this one will be - the last one was 5 minutes before hand.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Not getting quotes to work for some reason.

    On the positive side getting rid of Macron has got to be good for both the UK and UK/French relations. On the negative he is likely to be even more of a twat over the next few months in the hope of winning over a few centre rights by wrapping himself in the flag.

    Given Précresse thinks Macron weak in defending France's interests against countries like the UK, I don't think so.

    https://twitter.com/vpecresse/status/1128723876471504897
    It's almost like there are votes in France for appearing tough against the perfidious English.

    And vice versa.
    In the (May 2019) tweets you are linking to, she criticizes Macron for defending Europe and weakening France, but does not mention his relationship with the UK.

    In another tweet she criticizes the UK for post-Brexit political chaos (it was 10 days before Theresa May's resignation)
    I'll answer because I posted the the tweets. Pécresse clearly despises Brexit as a manifestation of anti European nationalism. She also criticises Macron for not standing up for French interests. As the two comments are in the same Twitter thread I would assume she links the two

    However here's a more direct attack on Macron for not being sufficiently hard-line on the fishing licences

    https://mobile.twitter.com/vpecresse/status/1461447867147640832
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    "Magnus Carlsen defeats Ian Nepomniachtchi in Game 9 of World Chess Championship – as it happened

    Nepomniachtchi makes fatal blunder in Game 9
    Norwegian leads 6-3 in best-of-14 title showdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2021/dec/07/magnus-carlsen-v-ian-nepomniachtchi-world-chess-championship-game-9-live
  • Peace in our time?

    The U.S. Congress removed sanctions against Nord Stream 2, Russian sovereign debt, and 35 Russian individuals from the draft defense budget. The announcement came right after the Biden-Putin call.

    https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1468287736901681156?s=20
  • How many months until Boris goes?

    If I were an ambitious Conservative Minister, I think my ideal would have been for BoJo to stay until early Summer '23; the next year or two will be grim for people's wallets and I'd rather not take the rap for that.
    Kick Bozza in the nuts in May, PM by September. Feelgood budget, feeding through to pay packets in April '24 and a GE win in May '24. Job's a goodun.

    That requires the PM to stay upright and not tarnish the party brand for a year and a half, which seems increasingly unlikely.

    So- take the risk of going for BoJo now, or leave him to soil himself a bit longer? I don't know.

    The other (very speculative, we're not there yet) question is whether BoJo could end up like late John Major- obviously a dead PM walking, but his internal opponents choosing to rebuild in opposition.
    It feels like the push is on now. Was it the CBI speech that was the final straw?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    If the police prosecute Boris over his Christmas Party breaking lockdown rules I think the 1922 may have to terminate him and Carrie (not literally ;) )
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,814
    eek said:

    Rowena
    @JustRowena
    ·
    1m
    In my career I've dealt with people who put stupid things on email. People who put stupid things on text. People who were secretly recorded.

    I have never dealt with anyone who deliberately videoed evidence against themselves and giggled whilst doing so

    There was the case of the Royal Marine, who knowing that a colleagues helmet cam was running, stated the exact war crime he was about to commit (murder of a prisoner), made sure the preparation for the murder and the murder itself were all recorded. Then made a crack about it to the camera.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175


    I don't know who leaked the footage, but I kinda hope it was Allegra
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,195
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:



    I don't know who leaked the footage, but I kinda hope it was Allegra

    If it was her, she herself looks absolutely terrible.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,125

    dr_spyn said:

    Isn't it amazing that so many party animals have stayed quiet for almost 12 months, until today.

    It feels like the push is on....as I say look for who is saying very quiet and away from the limelight.
    May be a case of get the retaliation in first.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,939
    edited December 2021

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Boris is such a lazy duffer he can't do a decent job of lying.

    I had the thought the other day, and some of you will not like this, that the country would be better off if covid had killed Boris. We'd almost certainly have a better PM now, and his death might well have scared some sense into the dopes who are still monkeying around and dodging the vaccine. Instead the fat twerp lived, and we are now dealing with a pandemic whilst being lead by a man who clearly thinks "I've had it, so what's the big deal?"
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    TSE was very much pro-lockdown, I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,573
    Scott_xP said:

    i'm sorry but this recording turning out to be the only thing that came out of the government building that £2.6m white house ripoff press conference room that they ended up never using is the most delicious Chekhov's Gun reveal i've seen in years

    https://twitter.com/vampthebs/status/1468302267543691267
    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    Isn't it used all the time for the press conferences?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    Andy_JS said:

    "Magnus Carlsen defeats Ian Nepomniachtchi in Game 9 of World Chess Championship – as it happened

    Nepomniachtchi makes fatal blunder in Game 9
    Norwegian leads 6-3 in best-of-14 title showdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2021/dec/07/magnus-carlsen-v-ian-nepomniachtchi-world-chess-championship-game-9-live

    I don't play chess but I find this series surprisingly gripping.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,824

    Does anyone have any inside information about what ordinary Conservative MPs think about their government? Do they agree with the way things are run, are they thinking of writing a letter, or are they just keeping their heads down?

    I obviously don't. But my impression is that most Tory MPs see the relationship with Boris Johnson as transactional. If he gets them reelected, they're not too bothered about what he does - the fussy ones like Grieve and Clarke got kicked out years ago. If he shows persistent signs of being a drag on the ticket, personal support seems in short supply. But they'll give it a year to find out, and then if necessary try the "new PM, give him a chance" trick again with a new one.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,662
    I find it fascinating how leaky this Government has become, even post-Cummings.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    What is really remarkable is that it must have been at some point shortly after this rehearsal that, for some intangible reason, they decided TV briefings were a bad idea after all.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1468305727374737414

    I'm told by one well-connected Tory that this specific mock press conference was decisive in ensuring they never actually happened
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1468305823856222212
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    Not long till they drop the No10 Christmas party Spotify playlist
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1468306175317975040

    "It's not a playlist": No10 spokesman.
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1468306295908442113
  • eekeek Posts: 17,293
    edited December 2021
    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    glw said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    Boris is such a lazy duffer he can't do a decent job of lying.

    I had the thought the other day, and some of you will not like this, that the country would be better off if covid had killed Boris. We'd almost certainly have a better PM now, and his death might well have scared some sense into the dopes who are still monkeying around and dodging the vaccine. Instead the fat twerp lived, and we are now dealing with a pandemic whilst being lead by a man who clearly thinks "I've had it, so what's the big deal?"
    Very nasty post! :(
  • eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    You know the game is up when the official PR department of Boris for PM is sticking the knife in.
  • But despite more companies cancelling their parties this week, and some families already planning lateral flow tests for festive gatherings, it’s not the festive period that looks most worrying. It’s January.

    Both Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Wales’ Health Minister Eluned Morgan made clear today that next month is when the Omicron wave could turn into a tsunami.

    Morgan revealed that the scientists’ modelling showed it should “reach its peak by around the end of January”. Sturgeon urged employers to tell their staff to work from home if possible “until the middle of January” at least......

    The PM won’t want to make even a mini-lockdown his Christmas present to the nation. The question is whether delaying the bad news until the New Year will make January even worse. And whether the country will forgive him a second time for the same mistake.


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-covid-christmas-pushing-luck-1340467
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,476

    eek said:

    Rowena
    @JustRowena
    ·
    1m
    In my career I've dealt with people who put stupid things on email. People who put stupid things on text. People who were secretly recorded.

    I have never dealt with anyone who deliberately videoed evidence against themselves and giggled whilst doing so

    There was the case of the Royal Marine, who knowing that a colleagues helmet cam was running, stated the exact war crime he was about to commit (murder of a prisoner), made sure the preparation for the murder and the murder itself were all recorded. Then made a crack about it to the camera.
    That boy who was murdered last week - the woman had literally hundreds of images on her phone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    Another example of Mogg's astonishing foresight.

    I'm amazed he lasted five minutes as an investment manager. How come he didn't bankrupt all his clients through dud decisions?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    From the end of the previous thread
    Off-thread - French election - First poll to predict another winner than Macron of the whole campaign

    For those interested, the new Elabe for BFM-TV

    First Round
    Macron 23 (-2)
    Pecresse 20 (+11!!)
    Le Pen 15 (-5)
    Zemmour 14 (+1)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 7 (-1)
    Hidalgo 3 (-1)
    Others : 10 -> Poutou 2 (=) Montebourg 2 (=) Lassalle 2 (=) Dupont Aignan 2 (-1)
    Arthaud 1 (=) Roussel 1 (=) Asselineau, Thouy and Philippot 1

    Second round
    Pecresse 52
    Macron 48

    This is obviously a direct effect from her victory in the primary but it will be huge for Pecresse's credibility to unite the right behind her. And if she does...
    Total left: 24 / Centre 23 / Total right 51

    It will be interesting to see if Macron's first round score holds up even if he stops looking like the automatic winner. He could end up as another Hollande.
    Indeed, and I wonder whether his reaction to losing will be dissimilar to Trump.
    Much as I loathe Macron, I don't think he'd claim it was all a rigged election and make wild unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud.
    The French count their votes quickly, and the sampling gives an almost instant result. One of the aggravating factors in the USA is the length of time it takes to vote then count the votes. Ample room for unscrupulous lawyers hired by the parties GOP to try and subvert the process.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,789
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    Another example of Mogg's astonishing foresight.

    I'm amazed he lasted five minutes as an investment manager. How come he didn't bankrupt all his clients through dud decisions?
    It's footage from last night.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042
    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    Another example of Mogg's astonishing foresight.

    I'm amazed he lasted five minutes as an investment manager. How come he didn't bankrupt all his clients through dud decisions?
    It's footage from last night.
    Ah, thank goodness for that.

    Just an example of his crassness, stupidity and arrogance then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    Another example of Mogg's astonishing foresight.

    I'm amazed he lasted five minutes as an investment manager. How come he didn't bankrupt all his clients through dud decisions?
    His Dad knows the right people etc etc.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    The Christmas party mystery will eventually be solved by who gave whom what in the Secret Santa..

    There was an office drinks party in Japan some years ago where someone poisoned everyone's drinks so there were no witnesses. They worked out who did it by working out the Japanese business card etiquette.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    Jesus christ the arrogance of these people
  • I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,573
    eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    There's quite a lot of bollocks on twitter. He was making a joke about the whole story at a speech a few days ago.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    I note even those who think the regulations and so forth are complete tosh (Oakeshott/Grimes/Tice) faction are now sticking the boot in about this party.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518
    Eabhal said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Didn't see my girlfriend for 6 weeks and didn't leave the health board for months.

    The sum total of human misery last winter...
    I absolutely love your picture, 😍
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,824
    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    edited December 2021

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give you a like anyway! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    I expect a Corbyn Gov't could never have got away with the state largesse Sunak heaped out during the pandemic and remained credible with the international markets. So we'd probably have had a counterfactual of an economically more right wing Gov't during the pandemic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,428
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    I’m still not willing to go there.

    I think Boris v Corbyn is pretty much on par, but the people behind Corbyn scared me more than the people behind Boris.
    If Johnson as PM is the equivalent of being garrotted, Corbyn would have been the equivalent of being slow sliced while at the same time being buggered with a red hot poker.

    They were both awful as a choice. But there is no doubt, even now, that Corbyn would have been the worse option.
    Corbyn minority vs Johnson landslide though?
  • I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    Dom Joly at school with Osama Bin Laden I think might trump everybody....
  • dr_spyn said:

    Isn't it amazing that so many party animals have stayed quiet for almost 12 months, until today.

    https://youtu.be/NtfHaJKW1zQ
  • GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
  • GIN1138 said:

    If the police prosecute Boris over his Christmas Party breaking lockdown rules I think the 1922 may have to terminate him and Carrie (not literally ;) )

    I hate to disappoint but I suspect there's more chance of next door neighbour's cat beating Donald Trump in 2024 than the MET looking into this and actually doing something.
  • tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    TSE was very much pro-lockdown, I think.
    It wasn't as much pro as it was the only alternative, especially when you had the idiots we must follow Sweden see this Alistair Hames trendline.

    I was probably at my most pro lockdown in December/January because I thought it would give us time to rollout the vaccines.
  • eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    They're taking us for absolute chumps.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    Corbyn would have been attacked daily by the right if he had implemented the exact same policies.

    He would have been attacked as a communist for things like furlough and support for business.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,428

    How many months until Boris goes?

    Up to the public.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,195
    edited December 2021

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
  • eek said:

    Even Guido has released a second video



    Marina Purkiss
    @MarinaPurkiss
    There’s more…

    Footage

    From a party

    Where Rees-Mogg jokes:

    "This party is not going to be investigated by the police in a year's time..."

    Do your f*cking job
    @metpoliceuk
    Embedded video
    0:23
    254.8K views
    From
    Guido Fawkes

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1468304337097142274

    They're taking us for absolute chumps.
    Given the history of the last six years, they kinda have a point on that one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    I hope she got a nice divorce settlement out of the sleazy slime ball?
  • Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,195
    edited December 2021
    kinabalu said:

    How many months until Boris goes?

    Up to the public.
    It feels like the party (or senior individuals within) have decided its time to shift Boris and Princess Nut Nut. As I say, I wonder if the CBI speech was the final straw.

    All these "traps" being set, that people know he will lie about, all being deployed just at the right time, with the classic drip drip drip.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    There's a certain ghoulish satisfaction in observing a PM who is not only spectacularly dishonest but also doesn't even bother to make a token effort to conceal it.

    I genuinely think he is disorganised and confused most of the time he thinks it is true.

    A variation of Tony Blair means it when he says it.
    so you agree that his memory and mental capacity isn't what it used to be. I do seriously think Boris hasn't been 100% since he caught Covid.
    Never attribute to long covid what is adequately explained by too much coke and booze.

    That's just a general principle, obv doesn't apply in this instance.
    The other thing that has happened is that his job has got more complicated.

    Summer 2019-March 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    March 2020-November 2020: Talk about Covid, because that was the only story.

    December 2020: Talk about Brexit, because that was the only story.

    January 2021-May 2021: Talk about vaccines, because... you get the idea.

    A reasonably well-coached eight year old could have done it.

    Now we're heading back to politics as normal, with a dozen different things in the intray every day. Even if you're not probe to fibbing, it's hard to keep track. If you also have to remember what you said to who (and hope reality doesn't show you up), even more so.

    As people pointed out beforehand, he's just not up to the job.
    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.
    I’m still not willing to go there.

    I think Boris v Corbyn is pretty much on par, but the people behind Corbyn scared me more than the people behind Boris.
    If Johnson as PM is the equivalent of being garrotted, Corbyn would have been the equivalent of being slow sliced while at the same time being buggered with a red hot poker.

    They were both awful as a choice. But there is no doubt, even now, that Corbyn would have been the worse option.
    Corbyn minority vs Johnson landslide though?
    All right, being buggered with a poker that's not red hot.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
    Are you seriously suggesting that number 10, Beth Rigby and others ruined Christmas for us?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,029

    Scott_xP said:



    I don't know who leaked the footage, but I kinda hope it was Allegra

    If it was her, she herself looks absolutely terrible.
    Plausible deniability right there.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821
    edited December 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,029
    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Magnus Carlsen defeats Ian Nepomniachtchi in Game 9 of World Chess Championship – as it happened

    Nepomniachtchi makes fatal blunder in Game 9
    Norwegian leads 6-3 in best-of-14 title showdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2021/dec/07/magnus-carlsen-v-ian-nepomniachtchi-world-chess-championship-game-9-live

    I don't play chess but I find this series surprisingly gripping.
    The fatal blunder thing is becoming a bit cliche.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
  • I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    Dom Joly at school with Osama Bin Laden I think might trump everybody....
    I was also at school with a future Islamic terrorist, though thankfully a far less proficient one.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190
    Re Afghanistan and pets etc, aren't we at stage 4 - with poor Trudi being lined up as the fall guy?


    1. Enthusiasm

    2. Disillusionment

    3. Panic

    4. Search for the guilty

    5. Punishment of the innocent

    6. Praise and honour for the non-participants.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    I’d honestly forgotten it was less than a fortnight ago that Downing Street threatened to sue us, denied it had, and then decided it was maybe better to stop talking about it.
    https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1468310480037027841
    https://twitter.com/peterbale/status/1468309702605824000
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    I hope she got a nice divorce settlement out of the sleazy slime ball?
    Just looked it up and it looks like they settled before he was actually convicted of anything so she probably did pretty well
    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/harvey-weinstein-divorce-georgia-chapman-b1884081.html
  • glwglw Posts: 7,939

    kinabalu said:

    How many months until Boris goes?

    Up to the public.
    It feels like the party (or senior individuals within) have decided its time to shift Boris and Princess Nut Nut. As I say, I wonder if the CBI speech was the final straw.

    All these "traps" being set, that people know he will lie about, all being deployed just at the right time, with the classic drip drip drip.
    You can tell how little the national press and politicians pay attention to local government because Boris was always ill-prepared when questioned at the London Assembly. Boris not doing his homework is not news to Londoners. His current job is at least a couple of pay grades above his abilities, and during a pandemic that is not on. Charisma and jokes are much use for fighting a deadly virus.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,622
    Normally by this time some kind person has posted the updated numbers from South Africa. Have I missed them?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    I have elective surgery scheduled for Monday. I'm expecting a record forth cancellation. I wonder how late in the day this one will be - the last one was 5 minutes before hand.
    Look on the bright side, on trend, you’ll probably be asleep when the next cancellation comes through.
  • tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
    Are you seriously suggesting that number 10, Beth Rigby and others ruined Christmas for us?
    Number 10 certainly did.

    Based on my conversations with fellow parents about 99% of them didn't see their parents/grandparents last Christmas because they followed the rules.

    For the kids it was terrible not seeing granny and grandad at Christmas, especially after Boris Johnson had ramped up having a normal Christmas.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    I hope she got a nice divorce settlement out of the sleazy slime ball?
    Just looked it up and it looks like they settled before he was actually convicted of anything so she probably did pretty well
    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/harvey-weinstein-divorce-georgia-chapman-b1884081.html
    Good for her.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    Incredible.

    They had a party.

    They knew it broke the rules.

    They joked about how to deceive us.

    They knew they couldn’t say the Prime Minister condemned it.

    Because he didn’t.

    All while they cancelled Christmas for the rest of us.


    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1468312540253855745
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,195
    edited December 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    My claim to fame is getting detained by the personal protection lot after "assaulting" Denis Thatcher...I accidentally knocked him flying coming around a corner and the plod thought i was attacking him, so I got jumped on. When I was finally released, he was actually very nice about it all.

    Good job it was before all the days of camera phones etc as I am sure I would have been all over social media in minutes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045
    Just as an observation, this is a very similar story to that which did for Matt Hancock - I.e. having a nice time while specifically denying the opportunity for that specific nice time to the rest of us.
    And yes, both Hancock and Boris could probably, technically, say what they were doing was within the rules. And in neither case would it cut much ice.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,125
    I am now going to search Youtube for Hitler's take on that Downing Street Party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Flouting someone else’s silly regulations somehow seems different to imposing them on everyone else and then flouting them yourself?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045
    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Last Christmas my other half and I made the decision not to see each other because we gave a shit about the rules and our families.

    I didn't see her for nearly six months because of that.

    It boils my piss that the Number 10 staff were breaking the rules I was following and laughinging about it.

    Surely you were following the rules because you didn’t want to catch/spread a deadly disease? Obviously the state doesn’t care about any individuals and the restrictions were really about protecting the NHS, but really the joke is on those who were being reckless.
    No, I'm with Eagles. My judgement was that the rules were stupid and disproportionate, but I still followed them. I mainly followed the rules because I am, at heart, a rule follower, or at least not a blatant rule breaker. I follow rules grudgingly and bend them, but I do when pushed, believe in rules. And so do most people. That's the reason my daughter was in tears on Christmas Eve because for the first time in her life her grandparents weren't there. So yes, I am a bit grumpy about this.
    Have Beth Rigby and Kay Burley commented yet?
    I was so glad I lived in a multi generational household.

    My kids have a strong bond with my parents and not seeing them at Christmas would have damaged them all.

    I really did feel so sorry for families in your situation.

    It is what boils my piss further.
    Are you seriously suggesting that number 10, Beth Rigby and others ruined Christmas for us?
    It was No. 10 and the department for health who did that. Beth Rigby et al just cheered them on.
This discussion has been closed.