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Could Reform’s Tice surprise us on Thursday? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Not sure about the return of Thornberry (not that she actually went away). She’s marmite.

    Still, we can expect a bit more pressure on Patel now.

    I think she's great in that (albeit ex-) Tory liking Labour politicians they would never in a million years vote for*.

    *See entire Lab shadow cabinet.
    Is there a typo in that? I can’t work out what you are saying.
    Plenty of Tories on here say what a great politician and how big fans they are of XYZ Lab politician, and how they should be made leader of the Party but it's not going to translate into a vote for that politician and Party.
    Understood: thanks for clarifying.

    And I get your point. There is little point in a politician doing something just to win respect from those who would never dream of voting for them.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,827

    Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    They wanted to be locked in with an Oasis tribute band?

    Leave them there for a month and hope they come out cured.
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    She already lost 17 Commonwealth realms over the course of her reign, this will be the 18th so she is used to it. As of midnight she will pass on just 15 Commonwealth realms to Charles, fewer than half the level at the start of her reign. India and Ireland had already ceased to have her father as Head of State even before she became Queen.

    However Barbados will remain within the Commonwealth
    Unlike Ireland, India stayed within the Commonwealth.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645
    edited November 2021
    I’ve been dwelling on something Starmer said a few weeks ago on Marr (I think?);

    “I don’t think Boris is a bad man, I think he’s a trivial man”

    Very perceptive comment. Few things politicians say stick in my mind like that has. It gets to the heart of the political distinction labour need to draw to win over centre-ground, floating voters. Labour can win on seriousness and competence.

    I’m all out of the markets right now, but if I were to take a position, it would be to lay con maj at current odds.
  • MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
  • Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    They wanted to be locked in with an Oasis tribute band?

    Leave them there for a month and hope they come out cured.
    Maybe it was to get away from being forced to watch 9hrs of the Beatles tootling....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036
    edited November 2021
    AlistairM said:

    maaarsh said:

    42,583 (+3.7%) 35 deaths (-18.4%) admissions (-11.2%)

    Of course that + number on the cases is 7 days on 7 days. Today's data, same as previous 2 days, is down on prior week. Case growth already lower than testing growth and should flip back green tomorrow or the day after.
    Anecdotally I am not hearing now of entire classes going down with Covid in schools. Is is the odd pupil here and there now, even in the primaries. Obviously I only know about a small area but very different from a little while ago where people seemed to be going down with Covid everywhere.
    Me too. In Trafford, we had a big surge in October - half a class off with it at once, quite often. (That was when I got it, via middle daughter). Should be stressed, have heard of no-one having anything but mild symptoms. Now it's ones and twos mopping up any who somehow haven't had it yet. I suspect urban areas like ours are slightly ahead of the curve, so no doubt other areas are currently going through what we had a few weeks back.
  • Magdalena Andersson has been reappointed as Sweden’s Prime Minister

    ...but will Lady Nugee be re-appointed Shadow Home Secretary?

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    By you, Carlotta and Selebian, so far.

    She should have done better, but it wasn't the Peppa Pig fiasco to which you allude.
    I condemned Boris peppa pig speech at the time and since, but that does not mean we can give labour politicians a free pass when they make a totally inappropriate response to a very serious matter
    As I didn't watch it I'm quoting from the Guardian: "She was largely critical of the government, saying that masks should never have been made voluntary on public transport in the first place, that sick pay is still inadequate, and that there should be compulsory pre-departure Covid tests for people flying into the UK. She also criticised Boris Johnson for his record on mask wearing, saying he had put people at risk in a hospital."

    Can't see anything "wrong in tone or content" from that.
    So you did not watch it then
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.

  • If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over).
    Danzig was German until 1919.
  • Magdalena Andersson has been reappointed as Sweden’s Prime Minister

    ...but will Lady Nugee be re-appointed Shadow Home Secretary?

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    By you, Carlotta and Selebian, so far.

    She should have done better, but it wasn't the Peppa Pig fiasco to which you allude.
    I condemned Boris peppa pig speech at the time and since, but that does not mean we can give labour politicians a free pass when they make a totally inappropriate response to a very serious matter
    As I didn't watch it I'm quoting from the Guardian.....Can't see anything "wrong in tone or content" from that.
    Guardian sympathetic to Labour spokesman shocker!

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.
    I wanted to click 'like', but that seems inappropriate - can we have a button for 'horrified fascination'?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    edited November 2021

    Normally a fan of Rosena but her response was a bit ranty and look at me...

    Not good. I suspect she might have just done herself out of a promotion.

    I heard it and it was awful. Stark contrast to the Health Secretary.
    My only complaint would be that Javed started the party political tone, a bit too much crowing about what the government had done. If he had toned it down a touch, it would have hit a better pitch. Rosena just sounded shouty and shrill. Obsessed with Tories not wearing masks.
    Yes, the obsession with masks does Labour absolutely no favours. Their revealed preference for masklessness (as seen at the Labour Conference) is the same as the general public's revealed preference for masklessness.

    Labour needs to tread very carefully here: it should be careful not to become the party of masking and restrictions.
    Very strong support for compulsory masking in today's yougov.




  • Also ... word is Emily Thornberry isn't getting the Home Office gig.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1465361244488187906?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801


    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over).
    Danzig was German until 1919.
    One the things quietly forgotten in modern Europe is that, at the end of WWI, large numbers of people ended up in the countries they didn't feel they belong to.

    This was fixed at the end of WII by pushing the populations around until they more closely matched the new lines.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,800
    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".


    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,800

    Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    Referred to as "Snowasis" on Look North at lunchtime.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107

    Magdalena Andersson has been reappointed as Sweden’s Prime Minister

    ...but will Lady Nugee be re-appointed Shadow Home Secretary?

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    By you, Carlotta and Selebian, so far.

    She should have done better, but it wasn't the Peppa Pig fiasco to which you allude.
    No, still far better than our PM would have managed. But worse than Javid, for example. Just a bit disappointed that she did not do better. I'd been impressed with what I'd seen of her before, less impressed by this. She was standing in, of course so not her brief, but what I saw makes me think she needs more time before she'll be ready for one of the big shadow positions.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 580
    "Knocking on a door" can mean anything, I think it covers 90% had leaflets, putting them though doors raising a knock as the flap rebounds back into position!
  • Magdalena Andersson has been reappointed as Sweden’s Prime Minister

    ...but will Lady Nugee be re-appointed Shadow Home Secretary?

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    By you, Carlotta and Selebian, so far.

    She should have done better, but it wasn't the Peppa Pig fiasco to which you allude.
    I condemned Boris peppa pig speech at the time and since, but that does not mean we can give labour politicians a free pass when they make a totally inappropriate response to a very serious matter
    As I didn't watch it I'm quoting from the Guardian: "She was largely critical of the government, saying that masks should never have been made voluntary on public transport in the first place, that sick pay is still inadequate, and that there should be compulsory pre-departure Covid tests for people flying into the UK. She also criticised Boris Johnson for his record on mask wearing, saying he had put people at risk in a hospital."

    Can't see anything "wrong in tone or content" from that.
    So you did not watch it then
    Did I say that I did? But you said wrong in content:
    "masks should never have been made voluntary" - England is certainly an outlier on that compared to pretty much anywhere else. Now that they need to reinstate masks it is going to be very very hard to do so.
    "sick pay is still inadequate" - thats hardly controversial is it?
    "there should be compulsory pre-departure Covid tests for people flying into the UK" even if we don't want to go that far, we've been very lax on arrivals and we're still behind the curve compared to various other major economies
    "criticised Boris Johnson for his record on mask wearing" - again hardly controversial

    I personally don't rate her that highly as a politician. But I rate her medical knowledge higher than mine or yours or the PB brains trust.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021
    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good news for fans of Thornberry's return, Dan Hodges agrees with you -

    @DPJHodges
    16m
    I actually think Emily Thornberry to Shadow Home Affairs is a good move. Whatever White Van baggage she might carry, she's a scrapper. And Labour need that in that brief.


    The flags story was trivial bollocks. Who in their right mind would want to live next to that effing state of a house?

    Still, it was a great gift on PB as I had hours of fun asking the usual pearl-clutching PB Tories whether they, or their wife, would be comfortable if their next-door neighbour decked the front of their house in England flags. Much twisting and pin-head dancing ensued.
    I'd quite happily live next to that house.

    Absolutely no qualms with my neighbours flying flags. On my street I've got multiple neighbours who routinely fly flags, including one permanently flying a Unite flag. I've got many more who fly them during England tournaments and I've done so myself. Doesn't bother me at all, live and let live.

    Anyone bothered by that needs to get their head out of their arse. Do you whinge about neighbours putting Christmas or Halloween decorations out too? Miserable gits.
    Bully for you. The guy who decked his house in England flags did so in November 2014 – nothing to do with a major football tournament. It looked a right state and most people would be unhappy to have to live next to it.
    Why?

    We've got a neighbour who moans about other people's houses. She's full of shit in my opinion and so is anyone (I doubt its "most people") who get upset about other people's homes.

    However people want to decorate their own home is up to them. Variety is the spice of life.

    Curtain twitching busybodies need to get a life.
    Bully for you if you (and your wife!) have such accommodating attitudes. I can tell you that they aren't widely shared. Most people don't want their streets to look a right state. But, each to their own.
    As I said, there's multiple people who regularly fly flags on my street and nobody kicks off a stink about it.

    "Each to their own" is the polar opposite of being a curtain twitching busybody whinging about other people's homes.
    You lost your big St George in mysterious circumstances as I recall.
    Nothing mysterious - my wife isn't keen and happy wife, happy life.

    If it was a neighbour not being keen, I wouldn't care less.
    Suppose it was a neighbour who objected to a huge 20ft square Pirate Flag that you had decided to drape over your house and he came to ask if you would mind taking it down as it was upsetting his young children.

    Couldn't care less?
    I'd politely tell them to mind their own business.
    Great neighbour.
    Absolutely, being polite to a curtain twitcher is more than they deserve, but manners maketh man.
    And as for my next question - if your children were being upset by something in your neighbour's house. Just suck it up because it's none of your business?
    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.
    Do you know your neighbours' names?
    No. Not sure why it's relevant though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Cookie said:


    AlistairM said:

    maaarsh said:

    42,583 (+3.7%) 35 deaths (-18.4%) admissions (-11.2%)

    Of course that + number on the cases is 7 days on 7 days. Today's data, same as previous 2 days, is down on prior week. Case growth already lower than testing growth and should flip back green tomorrow or the day after.
    Anecdotally I am not hearing now of entire classes going down with Covid in schools. Is is the odd pupil here and there now, even in the primaries. Obviously I only know about a small area but very different from a little while ago where people seemed to be going down with Covid everywhere.
    Me too. In Trafford, we had a big surge in October - half a class off with it at once, quite often. (That was when I got it, via middle daughter). Should be stressed, have heard of no-one having anything but mild symptoms. Now it's ones and twos mopping up any who somehow haven't had it yet. I suspect urban areas like ours are slightly ahead of the curve, so no doubt other areas are currently going through what we had a few weeks back.
    Absolutely the same situ here in the north London suburbs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    They wanted to be locked in with an Oasis tribute band?

    Leave them there for a month and hope they come out cured.
    My advice to them? Don't Look Back in Anger.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,024


    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over). Actually arguing with the neighbour seemed unpromising. But while they weren't enthusiastic about developments back home - that's why they'd left - they felt this shouldn't go unanswered, so my grandfather bought a Soviet hammer and sickle flag and they flew that, as a silent indication that the neighbour was Not One Of Us.

    In a much more minor key, I'm not sure what the correct response is to a nationalist neighbour with a giant St George's flag. Perhaps putting up a tricoleur would be a good wind-up? But in general I tend to live and let live with people you can't escape from.
    The correct response is indifference. Flying flags is somewhere between a bit of fun and no big deal - unless it's something hateful like the Nazi swastika flag.

    Storm Arwen did for the huge Scotland flag one of my neighbours erected for Euro 2020, which is a shame. An earlier neighbour had "Scotland" tattooed across his shoulders, and that was similarly no trouble. What was trouble was when he assaulted a dog-walker on account of being born in Korea.
    I quite like the flags in my avatar... :)
  • theakestheakes Posts: 580
    Lib Dems still charging arouind North Shropshire despite the snow, deep in places.Just wonder if a gfood Labour result on Thursday will stillen that part's support and prevent some sliding off on a tactrical vote surge.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801


    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over). Actually arguing with the neighbour seemed unpromising. But while they weren't enthusiastic about developments back home - that's why they'd left - they felt this shouldn't go unanswered, so my grandfather bought a Soviet hammer and sickle flag and they flew that, as a silent indication that the neighbour was Not One Of Us.

    In a much more minor key, I'm not sure what the correct response is to a nationalist neighbour with a giant St George's flag. Perhaps putting up a tricoleur would be a good wind-up? But in general I tend to live and let live with people you can't escape from.
    The correct response is indifference. Flying flags is somewhere between a bit of fun and no big deal - unless it's something hateful like the Nazi swastika flag.

    Storm Arwen did for the huge Scotland flag one of my neighbours erected for Euro 2020, which is a shame. An earlier neighbour had "Scotland" tattooed across his shoulders, and that was similarly no trouble. What was trouble was when he assaulted a dog-walker on account of being born in Korea.
    I don't see that symbols can be hateful in the way you suggest. If an ancestor of a German that died under the swastika wishes to hang that flag then although unwise, it's tough to argue against. The same argument about the American Civil war flags.

    I have in my collection of books a Folio Society edition of Shirer's (a US journalists thoughts). It has a big swastika on the cover. I was gripped when I started reading it, and at one point it struck me that it wasn't really a wise book to read on the tube.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478
    .
    Selebian said:

    Magdalena Andersson has been reappointed as Sweden’s Prime Minister

    ...but will Lady Nugee be re-appointed Shadow Home Secretary?

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    By you, Carlotta and Selebian, so far.

    She should have done better, but it wasn't the Peppa Pig fiasco to which you allude.
    No, still far better than our PM would have managed. But worse than Javid, for example. Just a bit disappointed that she did not do better. I'd been impressed with what I'd seen of her before, less impressed by this. She was standing in, of course so not her brief, but what I saw makes me think she needs more time before she'll be ready for one of the big shadow positions.
    She was disappointing, but she wasn't "dire" as referred by one poster and alluded to by another.
  • MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.
    I don't suppose we know whether any of these patients ultimately survived despite being an incubator for a new Covid variant?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".


    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

    Being described as "shrill" and told to watch her tone do have rather a whiff of misogyny about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263
    Foxy said:

    Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    They wanted to be locked in with an Oasis tribute band?

    Leave them there for a month and hope they come out cured.
    My advice to them? Don't Look Back in Anger.
    They just needed to Roll With It.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Foxy said:


    Normally a fan of Rosena but her response was a bit ranty and look at me...

    Not good. I suspect she might have just done herself out of a promotion.

    I heard it and it was awful. Stark contrast to the Health Secretary.
    My only complaint would be that Javed started the party political tone, a bit too much crowing about what the government had done. If he had toned it down a touch, it would have hit a better pitch. Rosena just sounded shouty and shrill. Obsessed with Tories not wearing masks.
    Yes, the obsession with masks does Labour absolutely no favours. Their revealed preference for masklessness (as seen at the Labour Conference) is the same as the general public's revealed preference for masklessness.

    Labour needs to tread very carefully here: it should be careful not to become the party of masking and restrictions.
    Very strong support for compulsory masking in today's yougov.




    Aha, there's a surprise – that's why I used the phrase revealed preference.

    Difference between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
    Could you be a love before you traitor off abroad and post me some links? I don't bother answering strawman questions and haven't read any reports of what you are talking about.

    My comments are simple - "exit" suggests we exit something. As we haven't seen any drop from the sustained 30-40k+ cases per day I question your use - not theirs - of the word "exit".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    They wanted to be locked in with an Oasis tribute band?

    Leave them there for a month and hope they come out cured.
    My advice to them? Don't Look Back in Anger.
    They just needed to Roll With It.
    When you are snowed in up there, it much seem like you are half the world away....
  • Cookie said:


    AlistairM said:

    maaarsh said:

    42,583 (+3.7%) 35 deaths (-18.4%) admissions (-11.2%)

    Of course that + number on the cases is 7 days on 7 days. Today's data, same as previous 2 days, is down on prior week. Case growth already lower than testing growth and should flip back green tomorrow or the day after.
    Anecdotally I am not hearing now of entire classes going down with Covid in schools. Is is the odd pupil here and there now, even in the primaries. Obviously I only know about a small area but very different from a little while ago where people seemed to be going down with Covid everywhere.
    Me too. In Trafford, we had a big surge in October - half a class off with it at once, quite often. (That was when I got it, via middle daughter). Should be stressed, have heard of no-one having anything but mild symptoms. Now it's ones and twos mopping up any who somehow haven't had it yet. I suspect urban areas like ours are slightly ahead of the curve, so no doubt other areas are currently going through what we had a few weeks back.
    Absolutely the same situ here in the north London suburbs.
    And up here in Aberdeenshire. A massive relief to everyone that schools stopped being such a major transmission vector.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.
    I don't suppose we know whether any of these patients ultimately survived despite being an incubator for a new Covid variant?
    For Omicron and Alpha they didn't, I'm not sure with Delta, probably not. I can't imagine survival rates are very good for people who have been on life support for 30+ days.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    Yorkshire pubgoers face fourth day snowed in as temperatures drop to -8 Celsius

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/29/uk-weather-snow-cold-ice-met-office-warnings-storm-arwen/

    What will they do with themselves....

    The only reason to go to the Tan Hill Inn at this time of year is to get snowed in.

    It isn't exactly on the route to anywhere. The 25% gradients on the road and the drifting off the open moor in anything other than a light breeze make it inevitable that it will get cut off, particularly as it sits at 520m above sea level.

    Nice bike ride in the summer though.
    Most of them were there to see an Oasis tribute band apparently.
    Referred to as "Snowasis" on Look North at lunchtime.
    A comment on Liam's recreational habits rather than the weather?
  • Mr Herdson, late of this parish:

    While masks will make some difference to Covid transmission, I can't help but note that N Ireland and Wales (where masks in public indoor areas are mandatory) currently have higher covid case rates than England (where they're not).

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1465362331467231243?s=20

    And in Scotland, where masks are mandatory, current rates are lower. I suspect "not proven" would cover it....
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    edited November 2021

    Mr Herdson, late of this parish:

    While masks will make some difference to Covid transmission, I can't help but note that N Ireland and Wales (where masks in public indoor areas are mandatory) currently have higher covid case rates than England (where they're not).

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1465362331467231243?s=20

    And in Scotland, where masks are mandatory, current rates are lower. I suspect "not proven" would cover it....

    Isn't the impact of masks on R0 something like 0.1 to 0.2 so it doesn't make a real difference except on the margins.

    Masks while annoying do not however have significant long term economic or educational impacts unlike say closing schools or a lockdown.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,827
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.
    I don't suppose we know whether any of these patients ultimately survived despite being an incubator for a new Covid variant?
    For Omicron and Alpha they didn't, I'm not sure with Delta, probably not. I can't imagine survival rates are very good for people who have been on life support for 30+ days.
    Wait, what. We know who patient zero was?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
    Third world hospitals cost money. even getting to them is beyond the means of the average Nigerian, I would think. No NHS ambulances. so i don't think we can draw conclusions like that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Foxy said:


    Normally a fan of Rosena but her response was a bit ranty and look at me...

    Not good. I suspect she might have just done herself out of a promotion.

    I heard it and it was awful. Stark contrast to the Health Secretary.
    My only complaint would be that Javed started the party political tone, a bit too much crowing about what the government had done. If he had toned it down a touch, it would have hit a better pitch. Rosena just sounded shouty and shrill. Obsessed with Tories not wearing masks.
    Yes, the obsession with masks does Labour absolutely no favours. Their revealed preference for masklessness (as seen at the Labour Conference) is the same as the general public's revealed preference for masklessness.

    Labour needs to tread very carefully here: it should be careful not to become the party of masking and restrictions.
    Very strong support for compulsory masking in today's yougov.




    Aha, there's a surprise – that's why I used the phrase revealed preference.

    Difference between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.
    Yes, but your sample is biased. The people put off by maskless crowds indoors are not out and about.

  • If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over). Actually arguing with the neighbour seemed unpromising. But while they weren't enthusiastic about developments back home - that's why they'd left - they felt this shouldn't go unanswered, so my grandfather bought a Soviet hammer and sickle flag and they flew that, as a silent indication that the neighbour was Not One Of Us.

    In a much more minor key, I'm not sure what the correct response is to a nationalist neighbour with a giant St George's flag. Perhaps putting up a tricoleur would be a good wind-up? But in general I tend to live and let live with people you can't escape from.
    The correct response is indifference. Flying flags is somewhere between a bit of fun and no big deal - unless it's something hateful like the Nazi swastika flag.

    Storm Arwen did for the huge Scotland flag one of my neighbours erected for Euro 2020, which is a shame. An earlier neighbour had "Scotland" tattooed across his shoulders, and that was similarly no trouble. What was trouble was when he assaulted a dog-walker on account of being born in Korea.
    Your neighbour's tattoo is instructive. In and of itself covering your house with England flags outside of a major sporting occasion is completely harmless. On the other hand, it could indicate that the person living in the house is a massive racist.
    Anyone who thinks that the probability of a person being a total racist conditional on their house being covered in St Georges crosses isn't higher than the unconditional probability of them being a total racist is, I would argue, not living in the real world. Or perhaps simply enjoys the privileged position of not having to worry about these things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.
    That's quite a thought - a single dying person cooking up inside them a new malign variant. And, yes, an interesting ethical issue. There are quite a few of those thrown up by Covid.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,491
    edited November 2021
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    The Conservatives take back their voting intention lead.

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 Nov):

    Conservative 38% (+1)
    Labour 36% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
    Green 6% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 21 Nov
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
    Third world hospitals cost money. even getting to them is beyond the means of the average Nigerian, I would think. No NHS ambulances. so i don't think we can draw conclusions like that.
    We saw it in India....you start to get 1000s of people at the side of the road, chaos as relatives try to get oxygen, etc. You will see it if you get a meltdown. Nigeria is what 200-250 million people, so it isn't like so tiny population which yes you could probably say you never saw it is as only a few people live in mostly remote locations. There are also huge numbers of Nigerians living in the West, again if all their families were been wiped out left, right and centre, we would hear. Again, we heard that from India, even the rural areas, that is actually what happened early reports of people struggling, needing money, medical supplies etc, and then loads of people going over for funerals.

    Places like Iran there was plenty of footage of the mass graves despite the authorities saying nothing to see.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    Magdalena Andersson has been reappointed as Sweden’s Prime Minister

    ...but will Lady Nugee be re-appointed Shadow Home Secretary?

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    By you, Carlotta and Selebian, so far.

    She should have done better, but it wasn't the Peppa Pig fiasco to which you allude.
    I condemned Boris peppa pig speech at the time and since, but that does not mean we can give labour politicians a free pass when they make a totally inappropriate response to a very serious matter
    As I didn't watch it I'm quoting from the Guardian: "She was largely critical of the government, saying that masks should never have been made voluntary on public transport in the first place, that sick pay is still inadequate, and that there should be compulsory pre-departure Covid tests for people flying into the UK. She also criticised Boris Johnson for his record on mask wearing, saying he had put people at risk in a hospital."

    Can't see anything "wrong in tone or content" from that.
    So you did not watch it then
    I did. Pedestrian but fine.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446


    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over).
    Danzig was German until 1919.
    Gdansk for that.
  • Redfield will now be the true poll as it shows the Tories in the lead, watch BJO and other PB Tories refer to it at every junction
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,084

    On flags: On my little street, the places most likely to fly an American flag on the 4th of July are homes occupied by immigrants, judging from their appearances. That doesn't surprise me; legal immigrants are often especially patriotic, perhaps because they have seen alternatives.

    The Microsoft headquarters, a few miles away, has the standard combination of an American flag and, below it, a Washington state flag.

    The local Google operation, a few blocks away, has neither flag, but, at the entrance, a "diversity" symbol, with vertical stripes of different colors.

    (Oh, and Microsoft provided a place and friendly volunteers for my first two Pfizer shots. As far as I know, Google has done nothing to help here in the fight against COVID.)

    I'd be surprised if Google have done nothing. Probably nothing so visible. But they are a pioneer in geospatial medical information.
  • Not sure that I get the flap about flags. There is a difference between hoisting the England flag on the lawn every day and doing nazi salutes to having one because you identify with the nation / region. I've seen people with England / Scotland / Yorkshire / Kernow flags on their house or in their garden and it doesn't bother me that much.

    Anyway, the classy way to fly a flag is to make sure that people get the message you want to communicate. The Scotland flag design that covers the giant YES letters in Alex Salmond's garden for example...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,813
    edited November 2021

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
    Could you be a love before you traitor off abroad and post me some links? I don't bother answering strawman questions and haven't read any reports of what you are talking about.

    My comments are simple - "exit" suggests we exit something. As we haven't seen any drop from the sustained 30-40k+ cases per day I question your use - not theirs - of the word "exit".
    We* had exited the use of NPIs, and didn't experience exponential growth in cases, hospitalizations or deaths.

    There's your exit. Emergency over. Unless Omicron is at the worst end of possibilities.

    * Or, at least, England, most of the UK.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408

    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".

    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

    Yep, many say they love the NHS but she actually does.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,800
    theakes said:

    Lib Dems still charging arouind North Shropshire despite the snow, deep in places.Just wonder if a gfood Labour result on Thursday will stillen that part's support and prevent some sliding off on a tactrical vote surge.

    Must be at risk of frostbite, sandals in the snow.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327

    Redfield will now be the true poll as it shows the Tories in the lead, watch BJO and other PB Tories refer to it at every junction

    The true poll was in 2019 and you'll be waiting a while for the next one.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036


    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over). Actually arguing with the neighbour seemed unpromising. But while they weren't enthusiastic about developments back home - that's why they'd left - they felt this shouldn't go unanswered, so my grandfather bought a Soviet hammer and sickle flag and they flew that, as a silent indication that the neighbour was Not One Of Us.

    In a much more minor key, I'm not sure what the correct response is to a nationalist neighbour with a giant St George's flag. Perhaps putting up a tricoleur would be a good wind-up? But in general I tend to live and let live with people you can't escape from.
    The correct response is indifference. Flying flags is somewhere between a bit of fun and no big deal - unless it's something hateful like the Nazi swastika flag.

    Storm Arwen did for the huge Scotland flag one of my neighbours erected for Euro 2020, which is a shame. An earlier neighbour had "Scotland" tattooed across his shoulders, and that was similarly no trouble. What was trouble was when he assaulted a dog-walker on account of being born in Korea.
    Your neighbour's tattoo is instructive. In and of itself covering your house with England flags outside of a major sporting occasion is completely harmless. On the other hand, it could indicate that the person living in the house is a massive racist.
    Anyone who thinks that the probability of a person being a total racist conditional on their house being covered in St Georges crosses isn't higher than the unconditional probability of them being a total racist is, I would argue, not living in the real world. Or perhaps simply enjoys the privileged position of not having to worry about these things.
    It's frustrating, because it shouldn't be true. I'd rather it was a perfectly acceptable foible to fly your country's flag. Other countries seem to manage it. You get Canadian flags flying all over Canada; I can't imagine they're all massive Canadian nationalists.
    And yet it is true: flag-displayers outside the context of sporting occasions are more likely than average to have, er, slightly discomfiting views. How much more likely? I don't know.
    It's self-fulfilling in a way: because it's true, normal people are less likely to do it - thus reinforcing the more-than-averagely-odd-ness of the flag-displayers.
  • Redfield Wilton

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -12%, a four-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 48% disapproving (up 4%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (no change).

    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has decreased by five points in the past week, now standing at -10%. 39% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 6%), while 29% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 30% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 3%).

    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, the same result as in last week’s poll. Conversely, 35% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 3%).

    More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 35%), ‘can build a strong economy’ (42% to 34%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 32%), and ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 33%).

    Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (44% to 25%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (41% to 30%), ‘represents change’ (41% to 31%), and ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (41% to 37%).

    Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (43%), ‘is creative’ (41%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (39%).
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
    Could you be a love before you traitor off abroad and post me some links? I don't bother answering strawman questions and haven't read any reports of what you are talking about.

    My comments are simple - "exit" suggests we exit something. As we haven't seen any drop from the sustained 30-40k+ cases per day I question your use - not theirs - of the word "exit".
    We* had exited the use of NPIs, and didn't experience exponential growth in cases, hospitalizations or deaths.

    There's your exit. Emergency over. Unless Omicron is at the worst end of possibilities.

    * Or, at least, England, most of the UK.
    Thing is, I hear people like you say "Emergency Over" and I hear people like Matthew Taylor CEO of the NHS Confederation saying it isn't and I wonder who might know more about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
    Third world hospitals cost money. even getting to them is beyond the means of the average Nigerian, I would think. No NHS ambulances. so i don't think we can draw conclusions like that.
    We saw it in India....you start to get 1000s of people at the side of the road, chaos as relatives try to get oxygen, etc. You will see it if you get a meltdown. Nigeria is what 200-250 million people, so it isn't like so tiny population which yes you could probably say you never saw it is as only a few people live in mostly remote locations. There are also huge numbers of Nigerians living in the West, again if all their families were been wiped out left, right and centre, we would hear. Again, we heard that from India, even the rural areas.
    India ain't Africa. I don't know Nigeria, but in most of the bits of Africa I have been to the chances of getting hold of oxygen, or anything else, I would guess were so remote that you wouldn't even think of bothering to try.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases have stopped rising nationally - pretty much. The cases among the older part of the population is still falling.
    - Admissions are still falling. In the England data this is largely in the 64-85 group.
    - Deaths are still falling.

    Still riding the exit Delta wave quite nicely but will Omicron knock us off the board and force us to remount?
    Difficult to say just yet, we need to know whether Omicron can cause severe disease in vaccinated and recovered patients with high immunity to Delta. If it does then we're all pretty much fucked, if it doesn't then it's really no change.
    Yes, fingers crossed it's nearer to 'as we were' than 'oh no, Covid rides again'.

    I found this a striking sentence from the BBC write up of Omicron:

    "This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus."
    Yes, it's the same as Alpha and Delta, an immunocompromised person who was kept on life support. The subject came up yesterday, the one doctor at lunch was very much unable to resolve the ethical quandary of turning off the life support machines for the greater good while the scientists and academics were all pretty clear that life support shouldn't be available to COVID patients unable to defeat the virus in one or two attempts as it allows for significant viral evolution and may set the whole world back and cause countless deaths. It is the reason doctors make for poor public health officials, they can't see beyond the single patient, as harsh as that sounds.
    I don't suppose we know whether any of these patients ultimately survived despite being an incubator for a new Covid variant?
    For Omicron and Alpha they didn't, I'm not sure with Delta, probably not. I can't imagine survival rates are very good for people who have been on life support for 30+ days.
    That knowledge would make the decision easier for me to take.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284
    When does the mask mandate in shops *supposed to start* ?
  • Rubbish numbers for BoJo in latest Redfield, Starmer will take over soon
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036
    kinabalu said:

    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".

    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

    Yep, many say they love the NHS but she actually does.
    I'm not sure that 'loving the NHS' is massively helpful for giving it the massive boot up the arse it clearly needs.
  • NEW: Sweden reports first confirmed case of new coronavirus variant
  • Watching back over Dr Khan's statement and thinking that her main crime is that she is a woman and has a higher pitched voice. For shame.
  • Cookie said:


    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.

    My mother's family who left the USSR in 1922 to live in Danzig were disturbed to see that the neighbour had put up a large swastika (later on he became the Nazi gauleiter in the city after the Germans took it over). Actually arguing with the neighbour seemed unpromising. But while they weren't enthusiastic about developments back home - that's why they'd left - they felt this shouldn't go unanswered, so my grandfather bought a Soviet hammer and sickle flag and they flew that, as a silent indication that the neighbour was Not One Of Us.

    In a much more minor key, I'm not sure what the correct response is to a nationalist neighbour with a giant St George's flag. Perhaps putting up a tricoleur would be a good wind-up? But in general I tend to live and let live with people you can't escape from.
    The correct response is indifference. Flying flags is somewhere between a bit of fun and no big deal - unless it's something hateful like the Nazi swastika flag.

    Storm Arwen did for the huge Scotland flag one of my neighbours erected for Euro 2020, which is a shame. An earlier neighbour had "Scotland" tattooed across his shoulders, and that was similarly no trouble. What was trouble was when he assaulted a dog-walker on account of being born in Korea.
    Your neighbour's tattoo is instructive. In and of itself covering your house with England flags outside of a major sporting occasion is completely harmless. On the other hand, it could indicate that the person living in the house is a massive racist.
    Anyone who thinks that the probability of a person being a total racist conditional on their house being covered in St Georges crosses isn't higher than the unconditional probability of them being a total racist is, I would argue, not living in the real world. Or perhaps simply enjoys the privileged position of not having to worry about these things.
    It's frustrating, because it shouldn't be true. I'd rather it was a perfectly acceptable foible to fly your country's flag. Other countries seem to manage it. You get Canadian flags flying all over Canada; I can't imagine they're all massive Canadian nationalists.
    And yet it is true: flag-displayers outside the context of sporting occasions are more likely than average to have, er, slightly discomfiting views. How much more likely? I don't know.
    It's self-fulfilling in a way: because it's true, normal people are less likely to do it - thus reinforcing the more-than-averagely-odd-ness of the flag-displayers.
    Yes I agree, it doesn't need to be true, it shouldn't be true, but it is true. It may be entirely self fulfilling.
    I did my bit for detoxification and put up a load of England bunting on my house during the Euros, but took it down a few days after the final in case people got the wrong idea.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
    Third world hospitals cost money. even getting to them is beyond the means of the average Nigerian, I would think. No NHS ambulances. so i don't think we can draw conclusions like that.
    We saw it in India....you start to get 1000s of people at the side of the road, chaos as relatives try to get oxygen, etc. You will see it if you get a meltdown. Nigeria is what 200-250 million people, so it isn't like so tiny population which yes you could probably say you never saw it is as only a few people live in mostly remote locations. There are also huge numbers of Nigerians living in the West, again if all their families were been wiped out left, right and centre, we would hear. Again, we heard that from India, even the rural areas.
    India ain't Africa. I don't know Nigeria, but in most of the bits of Africa I have been to the chances of getting hold of oxygen, or anything else, I would guess were so remote that you wouldn't even think of bothering to try.
    The greater area of Lagos is home to 23 million people.....that the size of Delhi. If they get whacked with COVID, you are going to see bodies piling up in the street.

    Now it could be because they have a very young population. Still I think it is interesting how out of whack they are with basically every other populated country.
  • Pulpstar said:

    When does the mask mandate in shops *supposed to start* ?

    4am tomorrow. Expect yet more abuse and attacks on shop workers as we had last time.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107
    Foxy said:

    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".


    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

    Being described as "shrill" and told to watch her tone do have rather a whiff of misogyny about.
    Don't think this is directed at me, but when I used 'tone' I wasn't referring to her voice, but to the content. The correct tone in my opinion would be that this is a potentially serious variant that was always possible. Now, what do we know and what are we going to do about it? (And, possibly, this is what we'd do about it if we were in charged and this is how it's better than what you're doing, so please follow our way now).

    She seemed to want to get into a blame game over Omicron arising at all, which seemed misguided given it didn't even arise here. Javid was very easily able to bat that away in his response. I thought she struck the wrong tone by being too confrontational.
  • Pagin TSE....Steps axe their remaining tour dates due to further Covid cases

    Seen them many many times, so long as Slade cancel on me on the 19th of December.
  • NEW: Sweden reports first confirmed case of new coronavirus variant

    It was detected too late in SA. Big possibility it actually started somewhere else not sequencing. It is now everywhere. No chance of containing it. Just have to see how it now pans out.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    Watching back over Dr Khan's statement and thinking that her main crime is that she is a woman and has a higher pitched voice. For shame.

    My main reaction was that Angela looks bloody lovely in a mask.

    God set her brave eyes wide apart
    And painted them with fire;
    They stir the ashes of my heart
    To embers of desire.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
    Could you be a love before you traitor off abroad and post me some links? I don't bother answering strawman questions and haven't read any reports of what you are talking about.

    My comments are simple - "exit" suggests we exit something. As we haven't seen any drop from the sustained 30-40k+ cases per day I question your use - not theirs - of the word "exit".
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cases-could-fall-significantly-in-november-even-without-plan-b-modelling-suggests-12444117

    https://www.ft.com/content/974487ab-54be-4b43-945c-597277aa1292

    The second to last graph in the FT article is the LSHTM model in a pretty chart, it shows only 60 people per 100k in England that may need hospitalisation if everyone in Europe got COVID tomorrow vs 400 in Germany. The exit wave, that you continually deny, is the reason England - with a very similar overall vaccine take up as Germany - has got far, far fewer potential hospitalisations in the pipeline. Simply, everyone got COVID over the summer and autumn as intended while in Germany they suppressed it and now they have a huge natural immunity deficit.

    Again, this is really, really basic science. Foxy posted about it at length back in March and April 2020, you squash the sombrero, spread the cases out and hope like hell that health services can cope. The government has taken that average of 30-40k cases per day for the last few months and while the increased load on the NHS is sub-optimal, the storm of cases in Europe is set to overwhelm even the most well resourced healthcare systems. Belgium clocked an equivalent of 150k cases, Netherlands about 100k, even France so often held up as the example of how to force people into the vaccine funnel are now dealing with 30-40k cases per day and rising. All at the worst possible time.

    Now we have a potential variant which spreads 30-50% faster than Delta and literally tens of millions of people across Europe with no pre-existing immunity from the vaccine or from prior infection. It's a very, very scary thought and we really have to hope that the worst doesn't happen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021

    Pagin TSE....Steps axe their remaining tour dates due to further Covid cases

    Seen them many many times, so long as Slade cancel on me on the 19th of December.
    I presumed Noddy Holder didn't do winters in the UK....imagine where ever you go for a 6 weeks all you hear is that bloody song. At least until very recently, apparently he was still making £200k a year out of the royalties, so I presumed he buggered off somewhere warm with the money.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
    Could you be a love before you traitor off abroad and post me some links? I don't bother answering strawman questions and haven't read any reports of what you are talking about.

    My comments are simple - "exit" suggests we exit something. As we haven't seen any drop from the sustained 30-40k+ cases per day I question your use - not theirs - of the word "exit".
    We* had exited the use of NPIs, and didn't experience exponential growth in cases, hospitalizations or deaths.

    There's your exit. Emergency over. Unless Omicron is at the worst end of possibilities.

    * Or, at least, England, most of the UK.
    Thing is, I hear people like you say "Emergency Over" and I hear people like Matthew Taylor CEO of the NHS Confederation saying it isn't and I wonder who might know more about it.
    In what proportion of pre-Covid winters did someone declare an emergency for the NHS?

    I think they're using the word in a different way to me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
    Third world hospitals cost money. even getting to them is beyond the means of the average Nigerian, I would think. No NHS ambulances. so i don't think we can draw conclusions like that.
    We saw it in India....you start to get 1000s of people at the side of the road, chaos as relatives try to get oxygen, etc. You will see it if you get a meltdown. Nigeria is what 200-250 million people, so it isn't like so tiny population which yes you could probably say you never saw it is as only a few people live in mostly remote locations. There are also huge numbers of Nigerians living in the West, again if all their families were been wiped out left, right and centre, we would hear. Again, we heard that from India, even the rural areas.
    India ain't Africa. I don't know Nigeria, but in most of the bits of Africa I have been to the chances of getting hold of oxygen, or anything else, I would guess were so remote that you wouldn't even think of bothering to try.
    One of our pharmacists got stuck for months in Lilongwe, Malawi earlier in the year. She had it bad, and still has some damage on imaging, but lost her father and a few others. There was quite a scramble for oxygen cylinders, but without domestic resupply, it was all gone in days. She did say that a month later it seemed to disappear. Covid is like that in its waves.

  • Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".


    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

    Being described as "shrill" and told to watch her tone do have rather a whiff of misogyny about.
    Don't think this is directed at me, but when I used 'tone' I wasn't referring to her voice, but to the content. The correct tone in my opinion would be that this is a potentially serious variant that was always possible. Now, what do we know and what are we going to do about it? (And, possibly, this is what we'd do about it if we were in charged and this is how it's better than what you're doing, so please follow our way now).

    She seemed to want to get into a blame game over Omicron arising at all, which seemed misguided given it didn't even arise here. Javid was very easily able to bat that away in his response. I thought she struck the wrong tone by being too confrontational.
    It wasn't the best statement I've heard the opposition health team make, that's for certain. I didn't hear her blame the Tories for Omicron at any point, just for the usual shambolic action on border controls.

    The problem with "this is serious lets all hold hands" is that its right to do so the first time out. When things have been screwed up and everyone has said "must do better next time" and we proceed to repeat the same errors, it isn't the wrong tone to say so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021
    AlistairM said:

    NEW: Sweden reports first confirmed case of new coronavirus variant

    It was detected too late in SA. Big possibility it actually started somewhere else not sequencing. It is now everywhere. No chance of containing it. Just have to see how it now pans out.
    I am starting to wonder....one of the cases in the UK was from over 2 weeks ago.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801

    Rubbish numbers for BoJo in latest Redfield, Starmer will take over soon

    Hard to see quite how. Bad numbers for Boris just make 2024 more likely. Very bad numbers just make a pre-election switch to a new Tory leader more likely.

    Today's reshuffle might be important in this, but Starmer keeping order until 2024 in Labour seems unlikely. Paradoxically the more unpopular Boris gets the harder it'll become for Starmer to hang on.

    The market suggests about 15-20% chance for Starmer to be next PM. That seems about right.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,790

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good news for fans of Thornberry's return, Dan Hodges agrees with you -

    @DPJHodges
    16m
    I actually think Emily Thornberry to Shadow Home Affairs is a good move. Whatever White Van baggage she might carry, she's a scrapper. And Labour need that in that brief.


    The flags story was trivial bollocks. Who in their right mind would want to live next to that effing state of a house?

    Still, it was a great gift on PB as I had hours of fun asking the usual pearl-clutching PB Tories whether they, or their wife, would be comfortable if their next-door neighbour decked the front of their house in England flags. Much twisting and pin-head dancing ensued.
    I'd quite happily live next to that house.

    Absolutely no qualms with my neighbours flying flags. On my street I've got multiple neighbours who routinely fly flags, including one permanently flying a Unite flag. I've got many more who fly them during England tournaments and I've done so myself. Doesn't bother me at all, live and let live.

    Anyone bothered by that needs to get their head out of their arse. Do you whinge about neighbours putting Christmas or Halloween decorations out too? Miserable gits.
    Bully for you. The guy who decked his house in England flags did so in November 2014 – nothing to do with a major football tournament. It looked a right state and most people would be unhappy to have to live next to it.
    Why?

    We've got a neighbour who moans about other people's houses. She's full of shit in my opinion and so is anyone (I doubt its "most people") who get upset about other people's homes.

    However people want to decorate their own home is up to them. Variety is the spice of life.

    Curtain twitching busybodies need to get a life.
    Bully for you if you (and your wife!) have such accommodating attitudes. I can tell you that they aren't widely shared. Most people don't want their streets to look a right state. But, each to their own.
    As I said, there's multiple people who regularly fly flags on my street and nobody kicks off a stink about it.

    "Each to their own" is the polar opposite of being a curtain twitching busybody whinging about other people's homes.
    You lost your big St George in mysterious circumstances as I recall.
    Nothing mysterious - my wife isn't keen and happy wife, happy life.

    If it was a neighbour not being keen, I wouldn't care less.
    Suppose it was a neighbour who objected to a huge 20ft square Pirate Flag that you had decided to drape over your house and he came to ask if you would mind taking it down as it was upsetting his young children.

    Couldn't care less?
    I'd politely tell them to mind their own business.
    Great neighbour.
    Absolutely, being polite to a curtain twitcher is more than they deserve, but manners maketh man.
    And as for my next question - if your children were being upset by something in your neighbour's house. Just suck it up because it's none of your business?
    If my children were upset by something in my neighbours house then I'd comfort them and teach them that there's nothing to be afraid of.

    I'd parent my kids, not my neighbours.
    Do you know your neighbours' names?
    No. Not sure why it's relevant though.
    Because you seem to live in an anti-social world where you don't interact with your neighbours which in itself means nothing but I find interesting in your approach to how you live your life and your view of your interaction with neighbours in general.
  • Pulpstar said:

    When does the mask mandate in shops *supposed to start* ?

    4am tomorrow. Expect yet more abuse and attacks on shop workers as we had last time.
    "Piers Corbyn has released an anti-mask song that states ‘wearing a mask is like trying to keep a fart in your trousers’. This is where we are, folks."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/piers-corbyn-mask-song-tube-b1966057.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    Today's R&W shows Con back ahead

    What a surprise.

    Starmer should shuffle the SoS for providing no opposition ie himself
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    edited November 2021

    Not sure that I get the flap about flags. There is a difference between hoisting the England flag on the lawn every day and doing nazi salutes to having one because you identify with the nation / region. I've seen people with England / Scotland / Yorkshire / Kernow flags on their house or in their garden and it doesn't bother me that much.

    Anyway, the classy way to fly a flag is to make sure that people get the message you want to communicate. The Scotland flag design that covers the giant YES letters in Alex Salmond's garden for example...

    I agree. Not a big deal and each to his own.

    But back to where this started, Thornberry and the notorious tweet, that was a property on a normal street completely festooned with the St George. There was more flag than house. And not an international football tournament in sight.

    There is no way imo that most people wouldn't look at that and quite reasonably think "oh dear oh dear, numbskull little englander alert!"

    Now that could be unfair and be disproved on personal acquaintance. But still, c'mon.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    Normally a fan of Rosena but her response was a bit ranty and look at me...

    Not good. I suspect she might have just done herself out of a promotion.

    I heard it and it was awful. Stark contrast to the Health Secretary.
    My only complaint would be that Javed started the party political tone, a bit too much crowing about what the government had done. If he had toned it down a touch, it would have hit a better pitch. Rosena just sounded shouty and shrill. Obsessed with Tories not wearing masks.
    Yes, the obsession with masks does Labour absolutely no favours. Their revealed preference for masklessness (as seen at the Labour Conference) is the same as the general public's revealed preference for masklessness.

    Labour needs to tread very carefully here: it should be careful not to become the party of masking and restrictions.
    Very strong support for compulsory masking in today's yougov.




    Aha, there's a surprise – that's why I used the phrase revealed preference.

    Difference between what people tell pollsters, and what they actually do.
    Yes, but your sample is biased. The people put off by maskless crowds indoors are not out and about.
    Given how packed the hotels, pubs and restaurants have been down here this autumn I dare say there can't be that many of these people!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262

    Redfield Wilton

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -12%, a four-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 48% disapproving (up 4%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (no change).

    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has decreased by five points in the past week, now standing at -10%. 39% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 6%), while 29% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 30% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 3%).

    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, the same result as in last week’s poll. Conversely, 35% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 3%).

    More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 35%), ‘can build a strong economy’ (42% to 34%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 32%), and ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 33%).

    Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (44% to 25%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (41% to 30%), ‘represents change’ (41% to 31%), and ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (41% to 37%).

    Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (43%), ‘is creative’ (41%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (39%).

    42% believe Boris can build a strong economy?

    Really?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    Selebian said:

    Foxy said:

    I've watched Dr Rosena. Started well, went on a bit and drifted off topic.

    Not brilliant, but no car crash either. And certainly not "shrill".


    And I loved the subliminal message when she touched her chest when referring to the NHS: "That's me, that is!"

    Being described as "shrill" and told to watch her tone do have rather a whiff of misogyny about.
    Don't think this is directed at me, but when I used 'tone' I wasn't referring to her voice, but to the content. The correct tone in my opinion would be that this is a potentially serious variant that was always possible. Now, what do we know and what are we going to do about it? (And, possibly, this is what we'd do about it if we were in charged and this is how it's better than what you're doing, so please follow our way now).

    She seemed to want to get into a blame game over Omicron arising at all, which seemed misguided given it didn't even arise here. Javid was very easily able to bat that away in his response. I thought she struck the wrong tone by being too confrontational.
    It was Javid who criticised her tone.
  • Thirteen players at Portuguese club Belenenses, whose match against Benfica was abandoned in farcical scenes on Saturday, have tested positive for the Covid variant Omicron.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888

    Rubbish numbers for BoJo in latest Redfield, Starmer will take over soon

    So rubbish Con are 2 points ahead of the useless nonentity you are fanboy for.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Officials from the Canadian province of Ontario confirmed on Sunday evening that two new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant have been detected there.

    The two men had recently travelled from Nigeria to Montreal, said Dr Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health.

    ---

    I am still fascinated by the incredible low rates of COVID in Nigeria. Even if testing / detection is very poor, at no point have they had a rush on the hospitals.

    Our Nigerian doctors report a lot of deaths in their extended families. I wouldn't trust the official stats.
    Well no I don't. Their reported levels make Russia look honest. But even with dodgy stats, at some point, everybody who gets hit hard gets the hospital rush on and you can't keep that quiet now everybody has a camera phone. AFAIK we have never seen that from Nigeria, where as basically every other country that has got hit hard has had that happen.
    Third world hospitals cost money. even getting to them is beyond the means of the average Nigerian, I would think. No NHS ambulances. so i don't think we can draw conclusions like that.
    We saw it in India....you start to get 1000s of people at the side of the road, chaos as relatives try to get oxygen, etc. You will see it if you get a meltdown. Nigeria is what 200-250 million people, so it isn't like so tiny population which yes you could probably say you never saw it is as only a few people live in mostly remote locations. There are also huge numbers of Nigerians living in the West, again if all their families were been wiped out left, right and centre, we would hear. Again, we heard that from India, even the rural areas.
    India ain't Africa. I don't know Nigeria, but in most of the bits of Africa I have been to the chances of getting hold of oxygen, or anything else, I would guess were so remote that you wouldn't even think of bothering to try.
    One of our pharmacists got stuck for months in Lilongwe, Malawi earlier in the year. She had it bad, and still has some damage on imaging, but lost her father and a few others. There was quite a scramble for oxygen cylinders, but without domestic resupply, it was all gone in days. She did say that a month later it seemed to disappear. Covid is like that in its waves.

    Malawi pisses me off, or rather the Christian missionaries there do. If they built half the number of new hospitals they do churches they'd have a first world health service.
  • Pagin TSE....Steps axe their remaining tour dates due to further Covid cases

    Seen them many many times, so long as Slade cancel on me on the 19th of December.
    I presumed Noddy Holder didn't do winters in the UK....imagine where ever you go for a 6 weeks all you hear is that bloody song. At least until very recently, apparently he was still making £200k a year out of the royalties, so I presumed he buggered off somewhere warm with the money.
    He left the band ages ago.

    This is Slade sans Noddy Holder.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    Dunno who this ringer is giving Labour’s response to Javid. But she is one of those that doesn’t understand that covid is here forever and still thinks it can be eliminated if only the intrusion into our lives was strong enough. This Labour Party wants to condemn us to masks and tracking until we die. Concerning. Deeply deeply concerning.

    Dr Rosena Allin Khan? I'm quite sure we can disregard her complete lack of medical know-how in favour of the collected PB experts like your good self.
    Did you watch her response because if you did I doubt you would dismiss it so lightly

    It was wrong in tone and content, as has been commented on here by others
    "Wrong in content" lecture PB's various pray-the-pox-away deniers to the doctor.
    Yet you think you know better than the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about how best to handle the virus. Personally, I'd rate their expertise as higher than that of a doctor. They're only the world's leading experts on viruses, so what do they really know about viral epidemiology, RP thinks otherwise and can't wait to tell the world he told everyone!
    I do appreciate your affection for me. Especially for my traitorous abandonment of my home country. When do you move to Switzerland...?
    You're voting for the SNP, I'm not. You still haven't answered the question, do you think that you know better than the LSHTM? They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months, you have repeatedly said we haven't based on nothing and no knowledge of the science. Answer the question, who's got more expertise in viral modelling, you or the world's leading experts at the LSHTM?
    Could you be a love before you traitor off abroad and post me some links? I don't bother answering strawman questions and haven't read any reports of what you are talking about.

    My comments are simple - "exit" suggests we exit something. As we haven't seen any drop from the sustained 30-40k+ cases per day I question your use - not theirs - of the word "exit".
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cases-could-fall-significantly-in-november-even-without-plan-b-modelling-suggests-12444117

    https://www.ft.com/content/974487ab-54be-4b43-945c-597277aa1292

    The second to last graph in the FT article is the LSHTM model in a pretty chart, it shows only 60 people per 100k in England that may need hospitalisation if everyone in Europe got COVID tomorrow vs 400 in Germany. The exit wave, that you continually deny, is the reason England - with a very similar overall vaccine take up as Germany - has got far, far fewer potential hospitalisations in the pipeline. Simply, everyone got COVID over the summer and autumn as intended while in Germany they suppressed it and now they have a huge natural immunity deficit.

    Again, this is really, really basic science. Foxy posted about it at length back in March and April 2020, you squash the sombrero, spread the cases out and hope like hell that health services can cope. The government has taken that average of 30-40k cases per day for the last few months and while the increased load on the NHS is sub-optimal, the storm of cases in Europe is set to overwhelm even the most well resourced healthcare systems. Belgium clocked an equivalent of 150k cases, Netherlands about 100k, even France so often held up as the example of how to force people into the vaccine funnel are now dealing with 30-40k cases per day and rising. All at the worst possible time.

    Now we have a potential variant which spreads 30-50% faster than Delta and literally tens of millions of people across Europe with no pre-existing immunity from the vaccine or from prior infection. It's a very, very scary thought and we really have to hope that the worst doesn't happen.
    Thanks for posting the links. So it is your word and not theirs. You said "They have outlined that the UK has very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months" - can you show me where that is in their model or their statements?

    The summary of their findings is paraphrased by the Sky hack as "Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that - even without the government's 'Plan B' - COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas."

    I have bolded the key point. They may be right - I absolutely hope they are - that we peak and then drop away. But we haven't yet so we're hoping still that we see this rapid fall in December. That is NOT that we "very successfully exited the delta wave of the virus over the last few months".

    So like I said, what exit? LSHTM have modelled a prediction that we will exit. Not that we have exited.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Pulpstar said:

    When does the mask mandate in shops *supposed to start* ?

    4am tomorrow. Expect yet more abuse and attacks on shop workers as we had last time.
    "Piers Corbyn has released an anti-mask song that states ‘wearing a mask is like trying to keep a fart in your trousers’. This is where we are, folks."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/piers-corbyn-mask-song-tube-b1966057.html
    If people are farting in public, I would prefer that out of politeness that they wear underpants and trousers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    NEW: Sweden reports first confirmed case of new coronavirus variant

    Are we going to get these updates all week Francis?

    Great to have you back, but endless 'country X records X cases of omicron' posts are bloody boring.

  • Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, the same result as in last week’s poll. Conversely, 35% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 3%).

    That's not much of a lead for a sitting Prime Minister......
  • Pagin TSE....Steps axe their remaining tour dates due to further Covid cases

    Seen them many many times, so long as Slade cancel on me on the 19th of December.
    I presumed Noddy Holder didn't do winters in the UK....imagine where ever you go for a 6 weeks all you hear is that bloody song. At least until very recently, apparently he was still making £200k a year out of the royalties, so I presumed he buggered off somewhere warm with the money.
    He left the band ages ago.

    This is Slade sans Noddy Holder.
    How can you have Slade without Noddy?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited November 2021

    NEW: Sweden reports first confirmed case of new coronavirus variant

    Are we going to get these updates all week Francis?

    Great to have you back, but endless 'country X records X cases of omicron' posts are bloody boring.
    Fair point. I will restrict it to only countries with more than a single case ;-)

    No, I think we get the picture now, its everywhere in Europe already.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    kinabalu said:

    Not sure that I get the flap about flags. There is a difference between hoisting the England flag on the lawn every day and doing nazi salutes to having one because you identify with the nation / region. I've seen people with England / Scotland / Yorkshire / Kernow flags on their house or in their garden and it doesn't bother me that much.

    Anyway, the classy way to fly a flag is to make sure that people get the message you want to communicate. The Scotland flag design that covers the giant YES letters in Alex Salmond's garden for example...

    I agree. Not a big deal and each to his own.

    But back to where this started, Thornberry and the notorious tweet, that was a property on a normal street completely festooned with the St George. There was more flag than house. And not an international football tournament in sight.

    There is no way imo that most people wouldn't look at that and quite reasonably think "oh dear oh dear, numbskull little englander alert!"

    Now that could be unfair and be disproved on personal acquaintance. But still, c'mon.
    Is that right, there was no kickball going on? That is surprising. And a bit worrying. The EDL or someone equally horrible got into trouble for trying to adopt the quite innocent-in-context words of a Show of Hands song "I miss St George and the union jack/It's my flag too and I want it back" as their own.
  • Pagin TSE....Steps axe their remaining tour dates due to further Covid cases

    Seen them many many times, so long as Slade cancel on me on the 19th of December.
    I presumed Noddy Holder didn't do winters in the UK....imagine where ever you go for a 6 weeks all you hear is that bloody song. At least until very recently, apparently he was still making £200k a year out of the royalties, so I presumed he buggered off somewhere warm with the money.
    He left the band ages ago.

    This is Slade sans Noddy Holder.
    How can you have Slade without Noddy?
    It's a bit like Queen with Paul Rodgers.

    Ok but you really wish Freddie was still was with us.
This discussion has been closed.