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On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence – politicalbetting.com

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  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,622
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections



    "not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.

    "HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"


    https://twitter.com/TheCryptoDog/status/1464250009474543617?s=20


    OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news

    What would be great is if this is a largely asymptomatic disease in vaccinated and recovered people. Even if we can all catch it, if it presents few to no symptoms I think that's our best case scenario. A new dominant variant that is out there but also doesn't make anyone very sick.
    Which would have the bonus effect of topping up everybody's immune system. :)
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Ace - I made it to a Scottish thread.

    "What a guy!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,789
    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,286

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
    Yup and if they could no longer get to Marbs, they'd all get it pretty rapidly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,987
    kinabalu said:

    Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.

    First preference

    Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May
    Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May
    Independent 17.5% - up 2.9%
    Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5%
    Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere

    The countdown continues.

    I wonder how this would map to parliamentary seats per Baxter?

    Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.

    First preference

    Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May
    Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May
    Independent 17.5% - up 2.9%
    Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5%
    Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere

    The countdown continues.

    So a significant part of the WEP vote appears to have come from the Conservatives
    Whereas either female LD's are fairly happy with the party's view, or of course, there aren't very many!
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Ace - I made it to a Scottish thread.

    "What a guy!"
    I think TSE timed them when he knew I wouldn't be around.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Then they would be criticised for being too slow on the 4th jabs for the elderly!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,567
    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,427
    edited November 2021

    This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,236
    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,709
    kjh said:

    Tip: Don't read PB while cooking. My mincemeat has now got 10x the Muscovado sugar than it should have. It is now going to be a Christmas cake with the unexpected addition of cranberries.

    Can't you rebalance and make 10x the mince pies?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    edited November 2021
    Sean_F said:

    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
    Or (f), we *are* facing the end of civilisation, and we may as well not stress too much about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,476

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    What's the context? Varicose veins or cancer? Deathbed wish? Bigoted old trout, anyway
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
    Yup and if they could no longer get to Marbs, they'd all get it pretty rapidly.
    Well, Ibiza, Fiji and Rome respectively - rather than Marbs. But, yeah.
  • This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    I don't think this will take us back to square one, but if it is as bad as feared, it could be a real set back, in my view. On the other hand, if it's as good as hoped, this could be seen as the final twist in the tail that ends the pandemic. Chances are it's somewhere in between.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,814
    Sean_F said:

    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
    Everyone has been asking the wrong questions. Important stuff first -

    - What kind of biscuits are we serving at the latest PB panic?
    - Who is making crap photocopies of the agenda?
    - Who is staying behind to fold the chairs and tables?
    - Who is returning the key to the church hall where we are holding the panic?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107

    kinabalu said:

    Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.

    First preference

    Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May
    Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May
    Independent 17.5% - up 2.9%
    Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5%
    Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere

    The countdown continues.

    I wonder how this would map to parliamentary seats per Baxter?

    Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.

    First preference

    Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May
    Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May
    Independent 17.5% - up 2.9%
    Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5%
    Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere

    The countdown continues.

    So a significant part of the WEP vote appears to have come from the Conservatives
    Whereas either female LD's are fairly happy with the party's view, or of course, there aren't very many!
    It's plausible that any woman remembering why there was a by-election would have pause before ticking the blue box (all potentially very unfair on the new candidate, of course). This time we only had leaflets from the Conservatives, three of them, I think. They were clearly keen to try and maintain the vote. None of them mentioned the previous incumbent, but they went big on the new candidate's story, fact she was a woman etc. For the original election, we had leaflets from Tordoff (the independent) and the Lab candidate, I think.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107
    kjh said:

    Tip: Don't read PB while cooking. My mincemeat has now got 10x the Muscovado sugar than it should have. It is now going to be a Christmas cake with the unexpected addition of cranberries.

    You accidentally read the figure for Nu's estimated R rather than the mass of sugar required?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,600

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
    I know two:

    Our airport taxi driver: "Why should I do what the government says; I'm not worried about catching Covid"

    and

    A piano-tuner: Ditto above plus some conspiracy stuff
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    IshmaelZ said:
    'The traveler from South Africa used a mask with a valve that doesn’t filter exhaled air and may have transmitted the virus to his neighbor when the hotel room door was open, a health department spokesperson said Friday.'
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,600
    Hospitalisations still coming down nicely
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    50,091 cases

    160 deaths

    730 admits
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012

    Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.

    First preference

    Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May
    Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May
    Independent 17.5% - up 2.9%
    Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5%
    Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere

    The countdown continues.

    From the local news coverage they seemed to be running a pretty effective campaign. Sometimes that can just be a favourable edit but clearly in this case the news reports were spot on.

    I wonder where they sit in the wretched Trans debate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    Sean_F said:

    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
    Everyone has been asking the wrong questions. Important stuff first -

    - What kind of biscuits are we serving at the latest PB panic?
    - Who is making crap photocopies of the agenda?
    - Who is staying behind to fold the chairs and tables?
    - Who is returning the key to the church hall where we are holding the panic?
    Mince pies not biscuits. Seasonal, plus just ask kjh.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,031
    kjh said:

    Tip: Don't read PB while cooking. My mincemeat has now got 10x the Muscovado sugar than it should have. It is now going to be a Christmas cake with the unexpected addition of cranberries.

    Years ago, I was making my wife tea whilst watching videos on YouTube. I ended up pouring milk into my tumbler of Scotch.

    I fact, I did it twice in a year.

    I no longer make my wife tea whilst drinking whisky ...
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012
    kjh said:

    Tip: Don't read PB while cooking. My mincemeat has now got 10x the Muscovado sugar than it should have. It is now going to be a Christmas cake with the unexpected addition of cranberries.

    I’ve always got Spotify on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,286
    Leon said:

    50,091 cases

    160 deaths

    730 admits

    Key stat (IMO) is 5992 in hospital in England down from a peak of 7535. That number is dropping despite rising cases. Booster effect in action.

    We're not out of the woods and there are definitely a few storm clouds on the horizon, yet at the same time we're also not anywhere near a situation where we need to panic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    kinabalu said:

    This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
    Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
  • Bit of a breeze?

    Due to severe weather, the A1 will be closed to all road vehicles north of #BerwickUponTweed from 17:00. We will be unable to operate rail replacement coaches in both directions between #Newcastle and #Edinburgh from this time.

    We reiterate: please DO NOT TRAVEL.


    https://twitter.com/LNER/status/1464250188256657408?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,758
    edited November 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    50,091 cases

    160 deaths

    730 admits

    Key stat (IMO) is 5992 in hospital in England down from a peak of 7535. That number is dropping despite rising cases. Booster effect in action.

    We're not out of the woods and there are definitely a few storm clouds on the horizon, yet at the same time we're also not anywhere near a situation where we need to panic.
    Yes, the falling admissions are feeding into falling hospital bed occupancy

    This is a very strange and precarious stage of the pandemic. On the one hand, the UK could be on the verge of escaping it altogether, and moving to the endemic phase

    And yet, thanks to the fucking Nunu, we could also be on the verge of plunging back into the worst: winter lockdowns, screaming ambulances, morgues on overtime

    It is Global Squeaky Bum Time
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,396
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
    Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
    Chill Winston. To name two. The reasonable worst case fatality ratio was far higher than it’s turned out to be. There was a brief period in April 2020 when it looked like the free pass covid generally gives to kids was about to be revoked.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,607
    Afternoon all :)

    A busy old day today and as usual I'm several hours off the pace.

    Some good results for the Conservatives in the overnight local by-elections though derisory turnouts probably mean one shouldn't read too much into any of it.

    I'll leave the microanalysis to others except to comment Bedford Ward in Wandsworth has always been marginal. The Conservatives held all three seats in 2010, lost two in 2014 and the last one last time but the margins were very tight.

    At the by election in May, Labour polled 2714, Conservative 1778, Green 815 and Lib Dem 310.

    Last night it was Labour 906, Conservative 905, Green 306 and Liberal Democrat 135 leading to a stunning win for the "Voted In May but couldn't be Arsed on a Cold November Night" party with 3,300 votes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,820

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,814
    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
    Everyone has been asking the wrong questions. Important stuff first -

    - What kind of biscuits are we serving at the latest PB panic?
    - Who is making crap photocopies of the agenda?
    - Who is staying behind to fold the chairs and tables?
    - Who is returning the key to the church hall where we are holding the panic?
    Mince pies not biscuits. Seasonal, plus just ask kjh.
    Surely, the mince pies have been ruined due to BREXIT?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,427
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
    Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
    Yep. Very true. But I'm going to wait for reliable updates on those 3 key Nu attributes, (i) virulence, (ii) speadiness, (iii) current vaccine efficacy, and until it's clearer try not to get too massively anxious.

    Might make sense to chat about Scottish independence in the meantime.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
    Presumably this plays well with someone, but I find the idea of this, or similar episodes like Corbyn ending his marriage over private schooling, incomprehensible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
    Everyone has been asking the wrong questions. Important stuff first -

    - What kind of biscuits are we serving at the latest PB panic?
    - Who is making crap photocopies of the agenda?
    - Who is staying behind to fold the chairs and tables?
    - Who is returning the key to the church hall where we are holding the panic?
    Mince pies not biscuits. Seasonal, plus just ask kjh.
    Surely, the mince pies have been ruined due to BREXIT?
    OKay. Bath Olivers and home made sloe jam.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
    Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
    i just think we have to grasp the concept more that old people do die and before that its a good idea to live life a bit.
  • Angelique Coetzee, chairperson of the South African Medical Association, has been telling the BBC that new travel restrictions on her country are premature. "For now, it is a storm in a tea cup," she says.

    ----

    The new coronavirus variant has "many red flags - more than we would've expected or ever planned for", says Sir Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford.

    He says the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,783
    MattW said:

    kjh said:

    Tip: Don't read PB while cooking. My mincemeat has now got 10x the Muscovado sugar than it should have. It is now going to be a Christmas cake with the unexpected addition of cranberries.

    Can't you rebalance and make 10x the mince pies?
    Not without causing a national shortage of dried fruit (which will be put down to Brexit)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,407
    Leon said:

    So I've been digging around the data

    Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem

    OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.

    Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet

    There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:


    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/


    I suggest we have a problem

    There is a wave starting in a poorly vaccinated environment. We do not know what that means for the UK.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,000
    edited November 2021
    One of Italy and Portugal will not be going to the World Cup!

    (Edit: at least one!)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
    Have you watched Dr Campbell's latest?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,407

    What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?

    Zero. Its not here yet, and even if it was, there is no evidence (yet) of a problem.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,802
    Forty one fewer cases today, and we'd have been able to say that Covid is Hoovering up the unvaxxed.

    So close.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kamski said:

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    It's noticeable that the German spikes started very much on the borders with Austria and Czechia, and it has since spread across the country. Yes those areas have higher unvaccinated rates, but now the Saarland has a very high case rate - with a relatively low unvaccinated rate. I would be very surprised if this new variant was causing the latest spikes and nobody had noticed, it's probably just how waves tend to go, but it's still curious.

    Last Thursday's report here:
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-11-25.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    seems to show that in calendar week 45 all 1713 of the sequencing done on randomly chosen positive PCR tests were Delta, and none were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, My, or Lambda. But it's interesting that that number (1713) is about half the number of previous weeks - which were also almost all Delta. I'm not sure why there would be such a big drop in the amount of random sequencing done from one week to the next. It also seems odd - unless labs were so overwhelmed with tests that there was less time for sequencing?
    When is week 45 in real dates? There are quite a lot of holidays in Europe in November which may have impacted numbers
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,814
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    pigeon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?

    Because it is either (a) incompetent, (b) doesn't have sufficient vaccine supply available, (c) doesn't have sufficient staff available to undertake more vaccinations, or - most probably - (d) some combination of a, b and c.
    I suppose there is (e) that we aren't facing the end of civilisation.
    Everyone has been asking the wrong questions. Important stuff first -

    - What kind of biscuits are we serving at the latest PB panic?
    - Who is making crap photocopies of the agenda?
    - Who is staying behind to fold the chairs and tables?
    - Who is returning the key to the church hall where we are holding the panic?
    Mince pies not biscuits. Seasonal, plus just ask kjh.
    Surely, the mince pies have been ruined due to BREXIT?
    OKay. Bath Olivers and home made sloe jam.
    Good, reasonable choices.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,288

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    I think they'd have noticed, wouldn't they? This variant (like alpha) shows up as different in the PCR tests.
    My understanding was sequencing and monitoring isn't very good in Europe and you need to know what you are looking for. In fact this SA variant was found by the UK.
    Yes, but you don't need to do full sequencing to notice this one. Germany may not be as hot on this as the UK is, but I don't think they'd have missed this if it really were a significant factor in their recent rise in cases.
    It would be a hell of a scandal if they hadn't noticed. Supposedly 99-100% of the thousands of random positive tests sequenced each week have been Delta up to last week. But this is Germany, everything is decentralised. Maybe all these little labs came up with weird sequencing results and there wasn't a space on the form they have to fax, or something.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,236

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
    Presumably this plays well with someone, but I find the idea of this, or similar episodes like Corbyn ending his marriage over private schooling, incomprehensible.
    It's like the death of little Nell.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012

    Bit of a breeze?

    Due to severe weather, the A1 will be closed to all road vehicles north of #BerwickUponTweed from 17:00. We will be unable to operate rail replacement coaches in both directions between #Newcastle and #Edinburgh from this time.

    We reiterate: please DO NOT TRAVEL.


    https://twitter.com/LNER/status/1464250188256657408?s=20

    A night in the toon beckons.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,286
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    50,091 cases

    160 deaths

    730 admits

    Key stat (IMO) is 5992 in hospital in England down from a peak of 7535. That number is dropping despite rising cases. Booster effect in action.

    We're not out of the woods and there are definitely a few storm clouds on the horizon, yet at the same time we're also not anywhere near a situation where we need to panic.
    Yes, the falling admissions are feeding into falling hospital bed occupancy

    This is a very strange and precarious stage of the pandemic. On the one hand, the UK could be on the verge of escaping it altogether, and moving to the endemic phase

    And yet, thanks to the fucking Nunu, we could also be on the verge of plunging back into the worst: winter lockdowns, screaming ambulances, morgues on overtime

    It is Global Squeaky Bum Time
    We could be, but aren't yet. I think what's really important to remember is that diluted vaccine efficacy doesn't necessarily mean an increase in hospitalisations and the UK has done almost 17m third doses covering almost all of the key 70+ cohort most likely to get severely ill from it. For example, Beta reduced overall VE for two doses of AZ to 30% but it still showed an 85% reduction in hospitalisations, which is pretty significant. We may end up talking about a reduction from 99% efficacy against severe symptoms to 95% in the end for the triple dosed, which is an increase but maybe not as bad as we think.

    There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,567
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    50,091 cases

    160 deaths

    730 admits

    Key stat (IMO) is 5992 in hospital in England down from a peak of 7535. That number is dropping despite rising cases. Booster effect in action.

    We're not out of the woods and there are definitely a few storm clouds on the horizon, yet at the same time we're also not anywhere near a situation where we need to panic.
    FWIW, the total number of Covid patients in hospital has been in steady decline since the start of the month, even though the number of cases by specimen date began rising again on the 7th. Further corroboration for the idea that the present wave of infections is heavily skewed towards the very young, and that crude case totals alone are therefore a metric that need no longer much concern us.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
    Presumably this plays well with someone, but I find the idea of this, or similar episodes like Corbyn ending his marriage over private schooling, incomprehensible.
    It's like the death of little Nell.
    Presumably not the one who was in the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012
    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    That’s an incredibly kind route forward for them
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    Storm Arwen has arrived.
    A beautiful crisp winter's day becomes a howling gale.
    Snow horizontal.
    Take care folks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,613
    edited November 2021
    Powerful intervention by French gov's spokesperson:
    1. PM letter does not reflect everything FR has done & is doing to address migration
    2. UK refused to send ppl to process asylum claims in France (which wd prevent ppl taking boats)
    3. Letter not true to PM-President call


    https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1464249216750993410?s=20

    Does France send people to process asylum claims in Greece? (which would prevent people treking across Europe)
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Do-able

    I must admit that sometimes big championships can be a bit more fun when the home team doesn't qualify - Every match counts equally so you can get immerserd in the footie.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,288
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    This account has been credible on the vaccines throughout and doesn’t seem too alarmed by the new variant.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043

    If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.

    Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
    Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
    Chill Winston. To name two. The reasonable worst case fatality ratio was far higher than it’s turned out to be. There was a brief period in April 2020 when it looked like the free pass covid generally gives to kids was about to be revoked.
    There was a prolific poster here around that time (Eadric istr) who said that between 10 and 25% of the population would die of Covid. So it looks like we have done a hell of a lot better than that poster's Best Case Scenario. So far.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
    Have you watched Dr Campbell's latest?
    Didn’t Dr Campbell quote some Invermectin trials approvingly?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,000
    edited November 2021
    JBriskin3 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Do-able

    I must admit that sometimes big championships can be a bit more fun when the home team doesn't qualify - Every match counts equally so you can get immerserd in the footie.
    World Cups must have been a lot of fun in Scotland, for a long time ;-)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    Owen Paterson U-turn shows PM could also cave in to pressure over independence referendum, SNP deputy leader claims - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/nov/26/boris-johnson-letter-macron-paris-channel-crossings-deaths-covid-variant-uk-politics-live-latest-updates
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,427

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
    Presumably this plays well with someone, but I find the idea of this, or similar episodes like Corbyn ending his marriage over private schooling, incomprehensible.
    It's an interesting area this. Like, I personally would see a left wing politician placing their politics over their personal family life as a negative - "Hmm, bit of a zealot," I'd think - but many others tend to be more critical about the opposite, eg when they send their child to private school or have expensive tastes in something or other. The old 'champagne socialist' business.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Bloody good draw for the Home Nations.
    Here's what you could have won...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189
    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Oh, so at least one of Italy or Portugal won’t be going to Qatar.

    Not sure this format is the best way to produce the most competitive World Cup entrants.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,000
    edited November 2021
    Looks good for Wales.

    Italy up against it. Amazing if the Italians don't qualify after winning Euro 2020. Mancini could be free for Man U earlier than expected - he might want to change his mind about rejecting them!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,288
    Charles said:

    kamski said:

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    It's noticeable that the German spikes started very much on the borders with Austria and Czechia, and it has since spread across the country. Yes those areas have higher unvaccinated rates, but now the Saarland has a very high case rate - with a relatively low unvaccinated rate. I would be very surprised if this new variant was causing the latest spikes and nobody had noticed, it's probably just how waves tend to go, but it's still curious.

    Last Thursday's report here:
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-11-25.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
    seems to show that in calendar week 45 all 1713 of the sequencing done on randomly chosen positive PCR tests were Delta, and none were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, My, or Lambda. But it's interesting that that number (1713) is about half the number of previous weeks - which were also almost all Delta. I'm not sure why there would be such a big drop in the amount of random sequencing done from one week to the next. It also seems odd - unless labs were so overwhelmed with tests that there was less time for sequencing?
    When is week 45 in real dates? There are quite a lot of holidays in Europe in November which may have impacted numbers
    8-14 November. No official holidays in Germany that I know of, though it is St Martins, and official start of the Carnival season.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 895
    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Come on Ukraine!
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Do-able

    I must admit that sometimes big championships can be a bit more fun when the home team doesn't qualify - Every match counts equally so you can get immerserd in the footie.
    Worlds Cups must have been a lot of fun in Scotland, for a long time ;-)
    Indeed - The last time Scotland qualifiied before the Euros this year was France 98 so I've enjoyed a good few tournements.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    Taz said:

    Bit of a breeze?

    Due to severe weather, the A1 will be closed to all road vehicles north of #BerwickUponTweed from 17:00. We will be unable to operate rail replacement coaches in both directions between #Newcastle and #Edinburgh from this time.

    We reiterate: please DO NOT TRAVEL.


    https://twitter.com/LNER/status/1464250188256657408?s=20

    A night in the toon beckons.
    Consider a long sleeved shirt.
    Then disabuse yourself of such a notion.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801
    Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.

    Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Bloody good draw for the Home Nations.
    Here's what you could have won...
    Doubt Ukraine will be able to turn up and play the way Putin is carrying on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079

    Looks good for Wales.

    Italy up against it. Amazing if the Italians don't qualify after winning Euro 2020. Mancini could be free for Man U earlier than expected - he might want to change his mind about rejecting them!

    Easy to forget they didn't qualify last time either.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    Good afternoon. Just about to read through the thread to see what's been happening today in the news.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,191
    edited November 2021
    Omnium said:

    Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.

    Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.

    I would have thought firing up the old press conference room for one this evening would have been sensible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,820
    edited November 2021

    OKay. Bath Olivers and home made sloe jam.

    Good, reasonable choices.

    I love the observation on the packet: "delicious with cheese and wine". Indeed they are, indeed they are.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,783
    Andy_JS said:

    Good afternoon. Just about to read through the thread to see what's been happening today in the news.

    I cocked up my mince pies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,814
    Omnium said:

    Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.

    Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.

    Javid was the one who told JCVI to take a shit or get off the pot.

    Otherwise we wold still be waiting for an answer on boosters.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801
    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good afternoon. Just about to read through the thread to see what's been happening today in the news.

    I cocked up my mince pies.
    They'll be edible - your house needs to burn down to make them inedible. So, happy days, you get to make more mince pies.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 650
    edited November 2021

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    More details on the Belgian case:

    The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.

    Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.

    The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.

    The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.

    Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.


    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

    Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....

    I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
    I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?

    Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
    Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
    By producing a very recent negative test result
    That must change now
    Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
    Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?

    Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
    On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
    Thanks very helpful.
    I know several anti-vaxxers.

    1. A judge, “vax will affect my thyroid”
    2. My sister-in-law, “longterm vax effect is unknown”
    3. My hairdresser, “can’t be arsed”.
    Have you watched Dr Campbell's latest?
    Didn’t Dr Campbell quote some Invermectin trials approvingly?
    Some of the Ivermectin trials seem to be well run & meta-analysis suggests a small, but real net positive effect.

    Best explanation I’ve seen so far is the one that explains the correlation between positive Ivermectin trial outcome & lattitude - treatment for Covid-19 includes heavy doses of steroids, which suppress the runaway immune response. In latitudes closer to the equator, many people have latent fluke worm infections which, if allowed to let rip, can (in the worst case) kill their host. For this reason, I believe, it’s common for any patient given steroids in places like India to also get a dose of, guess what, Invermectin (or another anti-worm / fluke agent) to kill off any possible fluke worm infection.

    So under this hypothesis, invermectin helps in warmer climes by killing off latent fluke worm infections that would otherwise be unleased by the heavy steroids given to treat Covid-19, thus giving the impression that Invermectin is active against Covid-19 all by itself.

    Is this hypothesis true? I don’t know & the evidence isn’t there to say one way or the other, but it does explain the observed facts. It also suggests that just blindly stuffing yourself with horse de-wormer is unlikely to help much with a Covid-19 infection anywhere.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    TOPPING said:

    I love the observation on the packet: "delicious with cheese and wine". Indeed they are, indeed they are.

    Not a fan of the original bath olivers, but you can sometimes find them chocolate coated. Cost a fortune, but worth it
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,820
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
    Presumably this plays well with someone, but I find the idea of this, or similar episodes like Corbyn ending his marriage over private schooling, incomprehensible.
    It's an interesting area this. Like, I personally would see a left wing politician placing their politics over their personal family life as a negative - "Hmm, bit of a zealot," I'd think - but many others tend to be more critical about the opposite, eg when they send their child to private school or have expensive tastes in something or other. The old 'champagne socialist' business.
    The key takeaway is that the family was rich enough to consider going private.

    Paging @isam!
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    Bit of a breeze?

    Due to severe weather, the A1 will be closed to all road vehicles north of #BerwickUponTweed from 17:00. We will be unable to operate rail replacement coaches in both directions between #Newcastle and #Edinburgh from this time.

    We reiterate: please DO NOT TRAVEL.


    https://twitter.com/LNER/status/1464250188256657408?s=20

    A night in the toon beckons.
    Consider a long sleeved shirt.
    Then disabuse yourself of such a notion.
    A long sleeved shirt ? Only if they’re shandy drinking southerners !
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    What if he went private, but the state footed the bill, like Sir Keir’s education? (If his parents didn’t pay, which looks unlikely)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801

    Omnium said:

    Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.

    Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.

    Javid was the one who told JCVI to take a shit or get off the pot.

    Otherwise we wold still be waiting for an answer on boosters.
    I'm not a fan.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.

    Winner will face Wales or Austria.

    Oh, so at least one of Italy or Portugal won’t be going to Qatar.

    Not sure this format is the best way to produce the most competitive World Cup entrants.
    Not really. It's been fail to win your group and you are in the playoffs for some years now.
    Was a time it was only group winners.
    Italy, Holland, Sweden and the USA missed out last time. There are always notable non-qualifiers. And surprise qualifiers.
    Always have been.
    Mexico in a bit of strife too.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568

    "She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"

    Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"

    Heart of stone, etc
    Presumably this plays well with someone, but I find the idea of this, or similar episodes like Corbyn ending his marriage over private schooling, incomprehensible.
    It's an interesting area this. Like, I personally would see a left wing politician placing their politics over their personal family life as a negative - "Hmm, bit of a zealot," I'd think - but many others tend to be more critical about the opposite, eg when they send their child to private school or have expensive tastes in something or other. The old 'champagne socialist' business.
    The key takeaway is that the family was rich enough to consider going private.

    Paging @isam!
    Right on time!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,286
    Omnium said:

    Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.

    Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.

    Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,820
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    I love the observation on the packet: "delicious with cheese and wine". Indeed they are, indeed they are.

    Not a fan of the original bath olivers, but you can sometimes find them chocolate coated. Cost a fortune, but worth it
    I thought they had stopped making them (the originals and presumably the chocolate-coated ones).
  • MaxPB said:

    [snip]
    There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.

    Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.

    I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.

    Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.

    Javid was the one who told JCVI to take a shit or get off the pot.

    Otherwise we wold still be waiting for an answer on boosters.
    I'm not a fan.
    He’s a bit thick, but considerably better than Hancock.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,000
    dixiedean said:

    Looks good for Wales.

    Italy up against it. Amazing if the Italians don't qualify after winning Euro 2020. Mancini could be free for Man U earlier than expected - he might want to change his mind about rejecting them!

    Easy to forget they didn't qualify last time either.
    Good point. Football, eh? Full of surprises.

    (Now if managerless Man U could just win the treble this season to prove my point...)
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,012
    dixiedean said:

    Storm Arwen has arrived.
    A beautiful crisp winter's day becomes a howling gale.
    Snow horizontal.
    Take care folks.

    It’s not too bad, all things considered, just outside of Durham. Cold, a little windy and no snow at All although the forecast tomorrow is not great and we’re both off to the toon.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    I know this is a silly conversation but:

    Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?

    As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?

    Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?

    If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.

    Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
    Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
    It's the sheer arrogance of your assumption that your vote overrides anyone else's that astounds me.
    Surely if you are both MPs then any positive motion (eg “authorise a referendum”) would fail if you didn’t secure a majority. Although you’d need to elect a speaker to chair the debate and they wouldn’t get a vote…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    I love the observation on the packet: "delicious with cheese and wine". Indeed they are, indeed they are.

    Not a fan of the original bath olivers, but you can sometimes find them chocolate coated. Cost a fortune, but worth it
    I thought they had stopped making them (the originals and presumably the chocolate-coated ones).
    Still on the Waitrose website.
This discussion has been closed.