Now there’s talk of a confidence move against BJ – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson in danger as 'a dozen Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence' https://t.co/CF4MO8vfXn
Comments
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First.0
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Not that likely in my opinion0
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Intriguing that the Eastbourne by election by an act of terrorism and all the parties stood, now they don't in similar circumstances.
If today's precedent had applied in 1990 would Thatcher have been safe?3 -
A dozen is well short of the needed total?0
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For nowrottenborough said:A dozen is well short of the needed total?
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Still need another 44 MPs.
I reckon it won't happen for a while because of events but Boris Johnson's doesn't have much going for him if people conclude he's not a vote winner.1 -
Don't stop believing Boris haters!
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For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.0
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The man is an embarrassment.
To the office of Prime Minister.
To the Conservative Party.
To the nation.
Get rid.7 -
I wonder if they did what they did in 2003 when a few Tory MPs sent letters to Sir Michael Spicer, undated, and told him to date them when he received 15 dated letters.kle4 said:For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.
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Johnson has no serious tranche of supporter MPs. He has no group of believers in his philosophy or political strategy, because he has none.TheScreamingEagles said:Still need another 44 MPs.
I reckon it won't happen for a while because of events but Boris Johnson's doesn't have much going for him if people conclude he's not a vote winner.
When it looks like he's no longer a winner amongst the voting public who pay no attention to politics and still love the whole 'Boris the clown who means well' routine he will be brutally dispatched in scenes not far from an episode of Narcos Mexico.
I reckon you can count the true Boris believers on one or two hands. They are in the Cabinet or in senior posts.
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Really hope they get rid.
Absolutely finished if they do. They lose all the folk who think he is Brexit. Plus the ones who think he's a laugh.
Same crap policies with nobody to sell them.
Or do folk think they'll be any different?3 -
If I was designing the process I'd explicitly rule that sort of shenanigan out. It's counted when received, no game playing or strategising it, if you think the leader should go say so and stand by your opinion - it's not like its announced to the world so you don't need to be brave.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if they did what they did in 2003 when a few Tory MPs sent letters to Sir Michael Spicer, undated, and told him to date them when he received 12 dated letters.kle4 said:For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.
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Which according to the Sun is Tory MPs.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Your point being?0 -
Lot of Boris haters on here still hoping for his downfall - let's see what happens!RochdalePioneers said:
Which according to the Sun is Tory MPs.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Your point being?0 -
A fly-on-the-wall documentary about Boris Johnson and the whole strange, epochal process of Brexit, to be released 50 years hence like the new Beatles footage to be released this Thursday, would make compelling viewing for the next generation.
How or why did this happen ? Why him ? Who is this character ?0 -
Increasingly in the Tory-supporting media, previous Tory PMs, Tory MPs etc etc. Some things are just wrong. And some people will excuse anything when their man does it.londonpubman said:
Lot of Boris haters on here still hoping for his downfall - let's see what happens!RochdalePioneers said:
Which according to the Sun is Tory MPs.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Your point being?0 -
2/1 at Ladbrooks that BJ will be out in 2022.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/14632681628127191121 -
iirc Brady will ask people whether they wish to withdraw their 'old' letter should the threshold be crossed. Double checking they still hate the bastard etc etc.kle4 said:
If I was designing the process I'd explicitly rule that sort of shenanigan out. It's counted when received, no game playing or strategising it, if you think the leader should go say so and stand by your opinion - it's not like its announced to the world so you don't need to be brave.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if they did what they did in 2003 when a few Tory MPs sent letters to Sir Michael Spicer, undated, and told him to date them when he received 12 dated letters.kle4 said:For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.
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54% of Tory MPs voted for Thatcher in the first ballot in 1990.TheScreamingEagles said:Intriguing that the Eastbourne by election by an act of terrorism and all the parties stood, now they don't in similar circumstances.
If today's precedent had applied in 1990 would Thatcher have been safe?
Under today's no confidence vote rules in the Tory party, Thatcher would have survived and been unchallengeble for a year0 -
It would be interesting to know who any letters are actually from.
What seems clear from recent events is that the old fart Conservative MPs have seriously miscalculated as to both the political mood in the country and to their own influence within the party.0 -
Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
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Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday1 -
Does not mean they prefer Labour though, latest poll has the Tories and Labour tied on 37% eachFarooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
Voters also prefer Boris to Starmer by 41% to 32%, they only prefer Sunak to Starmer by 39% to 32%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-november-2021/0 -
Yes. The speculation over the number of no confidence letters sent to Brady could last for longer than traitorous speculation over the Queen's health.kle4 said:For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.
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Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?0 -
Does this mean that you are not quite ready to complete your journey from LAB > LD > CON yet?RochdalePioneers said:
Increasingly in the Tory-supporting media, previous Tory PMs, Tory MPs etc etc. Some things are just wrong. And some people will excuse anything when their man does it.londonpubman said:
Lot of Boris haters on here still hoping for his downfall - let's see what happens!RochdalePioneers said:
Which according to the Sun is Tory MPs.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Your point being?0 -
I think they prefer to be known as 'grandees' rather than 'old farts'.another_richard said:It would be interesting to know who any letters are actually from.
What seems clear from recent events is that the old fart Conservative MPs have seriously miscalculated as to both the political mood in the country and to their own influence within the party.0 -
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday2 -
It's evident to me that Corbyn was a disaster - and I say this of course in hindsight but I am prepared to say so.
There are many Tories here who think Johnson is a disaster, perhaps they're worth listening to and respecting rather than being told they're fake Tories, or "Boris haters"1 -
Pretty dodgy really. It's one thing if they get cold feet of their own accord and seek to withdraw their letter, but it's putting pressure on MPs to defend the leader to go to them and effectively say 'Look, we're about to hit the threshold - do you really want us to have a vote now? With the locals coming up?" etc etcrottenborough said:
iirc Brady will ask people whether they wish to withdraw their 'old' letter should the threshold be crossed. Double checking they still hate the bastard etc etc.kle4 said:
If I was designing the process I'd explicitly rule that sort of shenanigan out. It's counted when received, no game playing or strategising it, if you think the leader should go say so and stand by your opinion - it's not like its announced to the world so you don't need to be brave.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if they did what they did in 2003 when a few Tory MPs sent letters to Sir Michael Spicer, undated, and told him to date them when he received 12 dated letters.kle4 said:For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.
Will persuade some to ignore their own misgivings because it is not the 'time' for a fight.0 -
Others believe my destination is the SNP...londonpubman said:
Does this mean that you are not quite ready to complete your journey from LAB > LD > CON yet?RochdalePioneers said:
Increasingly in the Tory-supporting media, previous Tory PMs, Tory MPs etc etc. Some things are just wrong. And some people will excuse anything when their man does it.londonpubman said:
Lot of Boris haters on here still hoping for his downfall - let's see what happens!RochdalePioneers said:
Which according to the Sun is Tory MPs.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Your point being?
Point is that my "boris hating" is not partisan. I am not ramping Labour nor do I expect them to win the next election. We need politics that works, and right now it is broken. The Prime Minister of the UK should not embarrass the country at the UN by making a climate speech scribbled together on the train to New York that goes on about Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy. Should not patronise the CBI after their heroic efforts battling Covid with "hands up who's been to Peppa Pig World.
We have standards in this country. OK, some of us have standards.0 -
Yep. That fabled charisma is looking more than a bit soiled now isn't it?Farooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating0 -
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister? 0 -
I welcome there are a few Boris die hards around. Prevents an echo chamber.0
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Well, not the most scientific test, but I see where you are coming from.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
Pascal was on about t-cells on R4 this morning I believe.
And:
"The Telegraph understands that the pharmaceutical company is preparing to release data showing that its jab offers long term T-cell immunity for older people even after antibodies wane. Mr Soriot said the immunity provided by T-cells may be "more durable"."
Telegraph (tonight)1 -
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?1 -
A grandee is a Spanish nobleman:kle4 said:
I think they prefer to be known as 'grandees' rather than 'old farts'.another_richard said:It would be interesting to know who any letters are actually from.
What seems clear from recent events is that the old fart Conservative MPs have seriously miscalculated as to both the political mood in the country and to their own influence within the party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_Grandees_of_Spain
Whereas Chope, Paterson, Swaine etc are old farts.
All need clearing out and certainly not to the HoL.0 -
Is there a strong word than schadenfreude?
We might need it, if it turns out that the BRITISH Oxford jab is way better long term than any other.
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Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday0 -
"The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year."
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.4 -
What value do you think that Starmer would add as PM? Or his 'high quality' shadow cabinet?RochdalePioneers said:
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?0 -
As usual, I just wonder the response from the faithful, if a Labour leader was behaving as Johnson was. In fact we know, they called Corbyn out enough0
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Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday2 -
They are the key.Farooq said:
Who mentioned Labour?HYUFD said:
Does not mean they prefer Labour though, latest poll has the Tories and Labour tied on 37% eachFarooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
Voters also prefer Boris to Starmer 41% to 32%, they only prefer Sunak to Starmer by 39% to 32%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-november-2021/
Thatcher only went in 1990 because she clearly trailed Kinnock, IDS also only went in 2003 as he trailed Blair.
Unless Starmer clearly and consistently leads Boris, Boris will survive. It is as simple as that1 -
….0
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Johnson’s usefulness is over. He won a huge majority, achieved a version o& Brexit. Charitably he may have followed the best path for Covid in opening up in July and not panicking recently. But that’s it. It’s time for an adult to have a go at running the country. I don’t really care who, just not Johnson. Time for him to go and earn stupid sums of cash doing other stuff.CorrectHorseBattery said:It's evident to me that Corbyn was a disaster - and I say this of course in hindsight but I am prepared to say so.
There are many Tories here who think Johnson is a disaster, perhaps they're worth listening to and respecting rather than being told they're fake Tories, or "Boris haters"2 -
You mean on here?londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Based on the evidence (for example, briefing/leaking) the REAL Boris haters are in the cabinet.2 -
You aren't listening. This isn't about Starmer or Labour. This is about the Tories. Plenty of other people could be Prime Minister who aren't a disgrace to the office.londonpubman said:
What value do you think that Starmer would add as PM? Or his 'high quality' shadow cabinet?RochdalePioneers said:
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?
We used to have standards. Apparently you don't.0 -
Shock! The immune system isn’t just antibodies? Who knew? Don’t tell Prof Pesto.rottenborough said:
Well, not the most scientific test, but I see where you are coming from.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
Pascal was on about t-cells on R4 this morning I believe.
And:
"The Telegraph understands that the pharmaceutical company is preparing to release data showing that its jab offers long term T-cell immunity for older people even after antibodies wane. Mr Soriot said the immunity provided by T-cells may be "more durable"."
Telegraph (tonight)2 -
43% of voters did not think Boris was a disgrace to the office when they re elected him in 2019, even if you loathed him then and still loathe him now.RochdalePioneers said:
You aren't listening. This isn't about Starmer or Labour. This is about the Tories. Plenty of other people could be Prime Minister who aren't a disgrace to the office.londonpubman said:
What value do you think that Starmer would add as PM? Or his 'high quality' shadow cabinet?RochdalePioneers said:
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?
We used to have standards. Apparently you don't.
As long as Boris is at least level with Labour then he is not going anywhere0 -
Honesty?londonpubman said:
What value do you think that Starmer would add as PM? Or his 'high quality' shadow cabinet?RochdalePioneers said:
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?0 -
LOL I think my standards are higher than yours. Still keep on dreaming...RochdalePioneers said:
You aren't listening. This isn't about Starmer or Labour. This is about the Tories. Plenty of other people could be Prime Minister who aren't a disgrace to the office.londonpubman said:
What value do you think that Starmer would add as PM? Or his 'high quality' shadow cabinet?RochdalePioneers said:
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?
We used to have standards. Apparently you don't.0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
We do note that you aren't answering the question though.londonpubman said:
Usual high quality response from youAnabobazina said:
Standard partisan bilge from you. I don’t hate Boris. He’s just an embarrassment.londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?
Sir Graham Brady Old Lady is a disgrace to his office. It has long been known that he cannot count - a prerequisite of the job - nor locate his top drawer, another key duty.rottenborough said:
iirc Brady will ask people whether they wish to withdraw their 'old' letter should the threshold be crossed. Double checking they still hate the bastard etc etc.kle4 said:
If I was designing the process I'd explicitly rule that sort of shenanigan out. It's counted when received, no game playing or strategising it, if you think the leader should go say so and stand by your opinion - it's not like its announced to the world so you don't need to be brave.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if they did what they did in 2003 when a few Tory MPs sent letters to Sir Michael Spicer, undated, and told him to date them when he received 12 dated letters.kle4 said:For 'a dozen' read probably about 2-3. Or it was a dozen, but sent to their own inbox.
Now we hear that he second guesses his correspondents.
The Old Lady is for turning.0 -
Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15Farooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating3 -
Won't he also survive, even with a Labour lead, unless an alternative polls much better than him?HYUFD said:
They are the key.Farooq said:
Who mentioned Labour?HYUFD said:
Does not mean they prefer Labour though, latest poll has the Tories and Labour tied on 37% eachFarooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
Voters also prefer Boris to Starmer 41% to 32%, they only prefer Sunak to Starmer by 39% to 32%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-november-2021/
Thatcher only went in 1990 because she clearly trailed Kinnock, IDS also only went in 2003 as he trailed Blair.
Unless Starmer clearly and consistently leads Boris, Boris will survive. It is as simple as that0 -
Isn’t it more that pretty much everyone that qualified for it has already had it?Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday1 -
The May situation was a bit different. Her downfall was ultimately because she couldn't get the only bit of her agenda that mattered through Parliament. However loud the grumbling, and however grudging the support, Johnson has a fairly big majority and isn't going to have that problem over the course of the year, even if he's severely weakened.LostPassword said:"The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year."
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.2 -
I don't think there can be data on that yet. Boosters only started in September, and there needs to be a couple of weeks for it to work. That leaves only about six weeks or so of exposure. Not enough time to generate that sort of data, let alone analyse it and draw conclusions.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday0 -
That’s what I’ll be having. The connoisseur’s cocktail!rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday1 -
Giuseppe wins Bake Off. Well deserved but there'll always be that question of whether Jurgen would have won if he hadn't been booted out in the semi final.0
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They used data from the COV-BOOST trial.Foxy said:
I don't think there can be data on that yet. Boosters only started in September, and there needs to be a couple of weeks for it to work. That leaves only about six weeks or so of exposure. Not enough time to generate that sort of data, let alone analyse it and draw conclusions.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
1 -
That too.kinabalu said:
Won't he also survive, even with a Labour lead, unless an alternative polls much better than him?HYUFD said:
They are the key.Farooq said:
Who mentioned Labour?HYUFD said:
Does not mean they prefer Labour though, latest poll has the Tories and Labour tied on 37% eachFarooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
Voters also prefer Boris to Starmer 41% to 32%, they only prefer Sunak to Starmer by 39% to 32%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-november-2021/
Thatcher only went in 1990 because she clearly trailed Kinnock, IDS also only went in 2003 as he trailed Blair.
Unless Starmer clearly and consistently leads Boris, Boris will survive. It is as simple as that
That was what saved Major pre 1997, Heseltine, Portillo and Redwood did not poll any better v Blair than he did1 -
Fair point. The level of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party is so woeful that there is perhaps nobody better than Boris at the moment - a truly chastening thought. What a steaming pile of utter shite the party is currently, you are absolutely right about that.HYUFD said:
That too.kinabalu said:
Won't he also survive, even with a Labour lead, unless an alternative polls much better than him?HYUFD said:
They are the key.Farooq said:
Who mentioned Labour?HYUFD said:
Does not mean they prefer Labour though, latest poll has the Tories and Labour tied on 37% eachFarooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
Voters also prefer Boris to Starmer 41% to 32%, they only prefer Sunak to Starmer by 39% to 32%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-november-2021/
Thatcher only went in 1990 because she clearly trailed Kinnock, IDS also only went in 2003 as he trailed Blair.
Unless Starmer clearly and consistently leads Boris, Boris will survive. It is as simple as that
That was what saved Major pre 1997, Heseltine, Portillo and Redwood did not poll any better v Blair than he did0 -
"the past few weeks have been the worst for BJ since he got the job in July last year"
July last year? I know 2020 was bad but I don't think it should be expunged from history.5 -
We had the discussion about changing the rules to allow another confidence vote. If there was a solid majority against the party leader they'd be able to push a rule change through.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The May situation was a bit different. Her downfall was ultimately because she couldn't get the only bit of her agenda that mattered through Parliament. However loud the grumbling, and however grudging the support, Johnson has a fairly big majority and isn't going to have that problem over the course of the year, even if he's severely weakened.LostPassword said:"The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year."
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.
What the letters to Brady allows is for a minority of MPs who have lost confidence in the leader to make their case to all the others in the open. Unless the leader wins the confidence motion very heavily, isolating the disaffected minority, it will mean that the issue of confidence in the leader never goes away.
Although it's unlikely to be tested enough times to say definitively one way or the other, my guess is that a large majority of Conservative party leaders who don't win the confidence vote with >75% of the vote will end up losing the leadership before the year is out.0 -
Only 66% of Tory MPs voted for Major in the 1995 Tory leadership election, yet he survived until 1997LostPassword said:
We had the discussion about changing the rules to allow another confidence vote. If there was a solid majority against the party leader they'd be able to push a rule change through.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The May situation was a bit different. Her downfall was ultimately because she couldn't get the only bit of her agenda that mattered through Parliament. However loud the grumbling, and however grudging the support, Johnson has a fairly big majority and isn't going to have that problem over the course of the year, even if he's severely weakened.LostPassword said:"The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year."
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.
What the letters to Brady allows is for a minority of MPs who have lost confidence in the leader to make their case to all the others in the open. Unless the leader wins the confidence motion very heavily, isolating the disaffected minority, it will mean that the issue of confidence in the leader never goes away.
Although it's unlikely to be tested enough times to say definitively one way or the other, my guess is that a large majority of Conservative party leaders who don't win the confidence vote with >75% of the vote will end up losing the leadership before the year is out.2 -
On the other hand, May didn't seem to need such a strong figure internally, at the very top near her, and within her Downing Street operation, as Johnson. He's never seemed to have been the same without Cummings.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The May situation was a bit different. Her downfall was ultimately because she couldn't get the only bit of her agenda that mattered through Parliament. However loud the grumbling, and however grudging the support, Johnson has a fairly big majority and isn't going to have that problem over the course of the year, even if he's severely weakened.LostPassword said:"The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year."
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.
To extend the possibly counter-intuitive and bizarre Beatles analogy a step further, as on the one hand, I don't think Johnson has been a a positive influence on the UK as they were, but on the other am intrigued to see what is described as their "real story" coming up on TV this week, he's lost his Brian Epstein. May was a devout and ordered Christian traditionalist whose downfall was almost too much robotic order and self-organisation, not too little.1 -
I want to bake freekinabalu said:Giuseppe wins Bake Off. Well deserved but there'll always be that question of whether Jurgen would have won if he hadn't been booted out in the semi final.
I want to bake free
I want to bake free from your pies
You're dough self-satisfied
I don't kneed you
I want to bake free
Cod knows
Cod knows I want to bake free4 -
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.5 -
I also welcome there are a few Boris die hards around. Prevents an... oh. ;-)kle4 said:I welcome there are a few Boris die hards around. Prevents an echo chamber.
3 -
Are there any published data on efficacy? I can only find reports on initial side effects of boosters.rottenborough said:
They used data from the COV-BOOST trial.Foxy said:
I don't think there can be data on that yet. Boosters only started in September, and there needs to be a couple of weeks for it to work. That leaves only about six weeks or so of exposure. Not enough time to generate that sort of data, let alone analyse it and draw conclusions.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday0 -
Unfortunately, I think that first point's right.Northern_Al said:Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
Happily, I think the last point is also right.2 -
"There’s little doubt that the past few weeks have been the worst for BJ since he got the job..."
This may be true, but the same was said of Tony Blair in November 1997, and he spent another nine and a half years as Prime Minister. It was said so often that it became a running gag. When you start from such a high starting point as an 80-seat majority you can have many "worst weeks" before the situation becomes terminal.0 -
It would have to be a pretty rapid decline for him to be gone in 2022. The stench of a dead leader walking is usually around for a year or more before they are finally put out of our misery, and that starts to get rather close to the next GE.Northern_Al said:Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I think it will be Starmer vs Johnson at the GE, and that that will be no sooner than 2 years away.2 -
Alastair Campbell was there with him every step of the way, though.LostPassword said:"There’s little doubt that the past few weeks have been the worst for BJ since he got the job..."
This may be true, but the same was said of Tony Blair in November 1997, and he spent another nine and a half years as Prime Minister. It was said so often that it became a running gag. When you start from such a high starting point as an 80-seat majority you can have many "worst weeks" before the situation becomes terminal.
I found it very striking that the counter-briefing yesterday seemed to start from *inside* no.10 first, and then extend outward, first to the cabinet, and then other Tory MP's.
This dynamic doesn't remind me of May or Blair, or any other Prime Ministers, and again to me seems to point to the crucial point of him having lost his partner in crime from Vote Leave.0 -
John Burn-Murdoch at the FT has produced some good charts from the UK government's own data, showing Pfizer efficacy beating AZ at six months.Foxy said:
Are there any published data on efficacy? I can only find reports on initial side effects of boosters.rottenborough said:
They used data from the COV-BOOST trial.Foxy said:
I don't think there can be data on that yet. Boosters only started in September, and there needs to be a couple of weeks for it to work. That leaves only about six weeks or so of exposure. Not enough time to generate that sort of data, let alone analyse it and draw conclusions.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
That being said, the evidence has been clear for some time that mixing and matching vaccines elicits the strongest immune response, so AZ-AZ-Pfizer may be the best of all worlds.
2 -
They had their booster five months ago now, so I'm sure they have a lot to go on. Just because us plebs don't know about it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.Foxy said:
Are there any published data on efficacy? I can only find reports on initial side effects of boosters.rottenborough said:
They used data from the COV-BOOST trial.Foxy said:
I don't think there can be data on that yet. Boosters only started in September, and there needs to be a couple of weeks for it to work. That leaves only about six weeks or so of exposure. Not enough time to generate that sort of data, let alone analyse it and draw conclusions.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday0 -
Just back from watching Chelsea thrash Juventus at Stamford Bridge.
I have seldom seen an English team so completely dominant against a storied European club. They are in a different league (literally and metaphorically)0 -
You've got to feel sorry for everyone in the EU with all that senseless scaremongering surrounding AZ.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday0 -
I object to the word pleb. I'm a bumpkin, thank you very much.RobD said:
They had their booster five months ago now, so I'm sure they have a lot to go on. Just because us plebs don't know about it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.Foxy said:
Are there any published data on efficacy? I can only find reports on initial side effects of boosters.rottenborough said:
They used data from the COV-BOOST trial.Foxy said:
I don't think there can be data on that yet. Boosters only started in September, and there needs to be a couple of weeks for it to work. That leaves only about six weeks or so of exposure. Not enough time to generate that sort of data, let alone analyse it and draw conclusions.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But a) they claim the JCVI has data to show AZx 2 + a Pfizer boost is best b) they had a ton of spare Pfizer shots in the freezer.Foxy said:
Abandoned by our government now.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
On the efficacy stuff, it does feel a bit soon, from a bumpkin pov, and there's still an element of 'which country is best' sneaking through a bit. I don't think most people will notice the difference of a few percent here and there though.1 -
Indeed, and May survived for quite some time *after* the 2017 election debacle and subsequent Brexit deadlock.HYUFD said:
Only 66% of Tory MPs voted for Major in the 1995 Tory leadership election, yet he survived until 1997LostPassword said:
We had the discussion about changing the rules to allow another confidence vote. If there was a solid majority against the party leader they'd be able to push a rule change through.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The May situation was a bit different. Her downfall was ultimately because she couldn't get the only bit of her agenda that mattered through Parliament. However loud the grumbling, and however grudging the support, Johnson has a fairly big majority and isn't going to have that problem over the course of the year, even if he's severely weakened.LostPassword said:"The upside for the leader is that if he/she survives a vote then there cannot be another challenge for a year."
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.
What the letters to Brady allows is for a minority of MPs who have lost confidence in the leader to make their case to all the others in the open. Unless the leader wins the confidence motion very heavily, isolating the disaffected minority, it will mean that the issue of confidence in the leader never goes away.
Although it's unlikely to be tested enough times to say definitively one way or the other, my guess is that a large majority of Conservative party leaders who don't win the confidence vote with >75% of the vote will end up losing the leadership before the year is out.1 -
@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/14632885388002672700 -
Here's the data from the UK government on Pfizer and AZ efficacy:RobD said:
You've got to feel sorry for everyone in the EU with all that senseless scaremongering surrounding AZ.Anabobazina said:
I said on these pages many moons ago that AZ would probably end up being the best of the jabs. It was crystal clear from the hardcore reaction I got from it that it was some zingy shit.rottenborough said:Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1460313047529103365
Pfizer is better in a two dose regime, but in a post-booster world, it's all much of a muchness.1 -
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames0 -
Quite a surge round here and especially in Guildford this week, apparently - not sure why. The main hospital has been restricting non-Covid cases to extreme need for some time now.williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/14632885388002672700 -
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.0 -
Germany just passed 100,000 dead. Meaningless but emotionally symbolicanother_richard said:
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.0 -
Well there were 15 covid patients last week in your NHS trust:NickPalmer said:
Quite a surge round here and especially in Guildford this week, apparently - not sure why. The main hospital has been restricting non-Covid cases to extreme need for some time now.williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsTrust&areaName=Royal Surrey County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust
so perhaps it should get back to normal and restrict the anti-vaxxers to extreme need instead.0 -
The peak was 6,000 in March 2020 - you need to expand the graph out.another_richard said:
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.
For ICU, the difference is even more stark - roughly 5x between March 2020 and now.0 -
The peak in March 2020 is 3,284 and it says the data is not precise.rcs1000 said:
The peak was 6,000 in March 2020 - you need to expand the graph out.another_richard said:
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.
For ICU, the difference is even more stark - roughly 5x between March 2020 and now.0 -
The data is downloadable as a csv and peaked at slightly over 6,000 in early 2020. Tomorrow I'll copy it into a Google sheet.another_richard said:
The peak in March 2020 is 3,284 and it says the data is not precise.rcs1000 said:
The peak was 6,000 in March 2020 - you need to expand the graph out.another_richard said:
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.
For ICU, the difference is even more stark - roughly 5x between March 2020 and now.0 -
The graph clearly shows a peak at just over 3k in March 2020:rcs1000 said:
The data is downloadable as a csv and peaked at slightly over 6,000 in early 2020. Tomorrow I'll copy it into a Google sheet.another_richard said:
The peak in March 2020 is 3,284 and it says the data is not precise.rcs1000 said:
The peak was 6,000 in March 2020 - you need to expand the graph out.another_richard said:
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.
For ICU, the difference is even more stark - roughly 5x between March 2020 and now.
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
Our World in Data shows likewise:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=NLD0 -
You and I don't argue much, so I wonder if I've got it wrong, but I downloaded the dataset direct from the Netherlands webpage (albeit I'm from my phone in bed right now).another_richard said:
The graph clearly shows a peak at just over 3k in March 2020:rcs1000 said:
The data is downloadable as a csv and peaked at slightly over 6,000 in early 2020. Tomorrow I'll copy it into a Google sheet.another_richard said:
The peak in March 2020 is 3,284 and it says the data is not precise.rcs1000 said:
The peak was 6,000 in March 2020 - you need to expand the graph out.another_richard said:
By the looks of the graphs the Netherlands has 2,052 covid patients (excluding ICU) currently with the peak being 2,159 in 5th January.rcs1000 said:
Although according to both Google and the Netherlands own website, the number of patients in ICU with covid in the Netherlands are about 80% below peak:williamglenn said:@BNODesk
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.
For ICU, the difference is even more stark - roughly 5x between March 2020 and now.
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
Our World in Data shows likewise:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=NLD
I will double check tomorrow morning. My number, fwiw, is both ICU and regular.1 -
I sense no appetite within the Conservatives to start bloodletting, Boris is a serial philanderer and will plead forgiveness and get it (as he has done many times in the past)... 2022 needs to see some sort of shift which if no progress seen by early summer/May elections I think is more likely to herald a challenge (or a face saving resignation - he's not looking well....health grounds is a genuine possibility)WhisperingOracle said:
Alastair Campbell was there with him every step of the way, though.LostPassword said:"There’s little doubt that the past few weeks have been the worst for BJ since he got the job..."
This may be true, but the same was said of Tony Blair in November 1997, and he spent another nine and a half years as Prime Minister. It was said so often that it became a running gag. When you start from such a high starting point as an 80-seat majority you can have many "worst weeks" before the situation becomes terminal.
I found it very striking that the counter-briefing yesterday seemed to start from *inside* no.10 first, and then extend outward, first to the cabinet, and then other Tory MP's.
This dynamic doesn't remind me of May or Blair, or any other Prime Ministers, and again to me seems to point to the crucial point of him having lost his partner in crime from Vote Leave.0 -
Given how well Chelsea's system works, you have to think James and Chilwell will be England's wingbacks in a 3-4-3 at the World Cup.Leon said:Just back from watching Chelsea thrash Juventus at Stamford Bridge.
I have seldom seen an English team so completely dominant against a storied European club. They are in a different league (literally and metaphorically)0 -
Could be the same people.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
You mean on here?londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
Based on the evidence (for example, briefing/leaking) the REAL Boris haters are in the cabinet.0 -
Maybe a statement of the obvious but it's a good to know we're living in a real democracy in the sense that Johnson is probably facing a leadership challenge if he loses both of these by-elections, and that will be directed determined by around 150,000 voters in these two seats.1
-
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.Northern_Al said:Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.4 -
I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.isam said:
Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15Farooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)1 -
Tim was an entertaining fellow, but like all of us, got rather predictable after a while. A bit like his nemesis, SeanT. Fortunately SeanT realised when he was getting stale, and we've been fortunate he was replaced with a series of similar posters. Sometimes uncannily similar ...StuartDickson said:
I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.isam said:
Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15Farooq said:
Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:londonpubman said:Don't stop believing Boris haters!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)
4
