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Now there’s talk of a confidence move against BJ – politicalbetting.com
Now there’s talk of a confidence move against BJ – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson in danger as 'a dozen Tory MPs send in letters of no confidence' https://t.co/CF4MO8vfXn
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If today's precedent had applied in 1990 would Thatcher have been safe?
I reckon it won't happen for a while because of events but Boris Johnson's doesn't have much going for him if people conclude he's not a vote winner.
To the office of Prime Minister.
To the Conservative Party.
To the nation.
Get rid.
When it looks like he's no longer a winner amongst the voting public who pay no attention to politics and still love the whole 'Boris the clown who means well' routine he will be brutally dispatched in scenes not far from an episode of Narcos Mexico.
I reckon you can count the true Boris believers on one or two hands. They are in the Cabinet or in senior posts.
Absolutely finished if they do. They lose all the folk who think he is Brexit. Plus the ones who think he's a laugh.
Same crap policies with nobody to sell them.
Or do folk think they'll be any different?
Your point being?
How or why did this happen ? Why him ? Who is this character ?
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1463268162812719112
Under today's no confidence vote rules in the Tory party, Thatcher would have survived and been unchallengeble for a year
What seems clear from recent events is that the old fart Conservative MPs have seriously miscalculated as to both the political mood in the country and to their own influence within the party.
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
16m
Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday
Voters also prefer Boris to Starmer by 41% to 32%, they only prefer Sunak to Starmer by 39% to 32%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-november-2021/
Do you think he graces the office of prime minister?
There are many Tories here who think Johnson is a disaster, perhaps they're worth listening to and respecting rather than being told they're fake Tories, or "Boris haters"
Will persuade some to ignore their own misgivings because it is not the 'time' for a fight.
Point is that my "boris hating" is not partisan. I am not ramping Labour nor do I expect them to win the next election. We need politics that works, and right now it is broken. The Prime Minister of the UK should not embarrass the country at the UN by making a climate speech scribbled together on the train to New York that goes on about Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy. Should not patronise the CBI after their heroic efforts battling Covid with "hands up who's been to Peppa Pig World.
We have standards in this country. OK, some of us have standards.
Pascal was on about t-cells on R4 this morning I believe.
And:
"The Telegraph understands that the pharmaceutical company is preparing to release data showing that its jab offers long term T-cell immunity for older people even after antibodies wane. Mr Soriot said the immunity provided by T-cells may be "more durable"."
Telegraph (tonight)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_Grandees_of_Spain
Whereas Chope, Paterson, Swaine etc are old farts.
All need clearing out and certainly not to the HoL.
We might need it, if it turns out that the BRITISH Oxford jab is way better long term than any other.
In practice that provision is about as meaningful as the FTPA as May demonstrated in both cases.
A confidence vote was won by May in December 2018, but she was forced to announce her resignation in May 2019 once it had become clear that the whole country had lost confidence in her.
Ultimately if confidence is lost no bureaucratic rule will be of any use.
Thatcher only went in 1990 because she clearly trailed Kinnock, IDS also only went in 2003 as he trailed Blair.
Unless Starmer clearly and consistently leads Boris, Boris will survive. It is as simple as that
Based on the evidence (for example, briefing/leaking) the REAL Boris haters are in the cabinet.
We used to have standards. Apparently you don't.
As long as Boris is at least level with Labour then he is not going anywhere
Now we hear that he second guesses his correspondents.
The Old Lady is for turning.
That was what saved Major pre 1997, Heseltine, Portillo and Redwood did not poll any better v Blair than he did
July last year? I know 2020 was bad but I don't think it should be expunged from history.
What the letters to Brady allows is for a minority of MPs who have lost confidence in the leader to make their case to all the others in the open. Unless the leader wins the confidence motion very heavily, isolating the disaffected minority, it will mean that the issue of confidence in the leader never goes away.
Although it's unlikely to be tested enough times to say definitively one way or the other, my guess is that a large majority of Conservative party leaders who don't win the confidence vote with >75% of the vote will end up losing the leadership before the year is out.
To extend the possibly counter-intuitive and bizarre Beatles analogy a step further, as on the one hand, I don't think Johnson has been a a positive influence on the UK as they were, but on the other am intrigued to see what is described as their "real story" coming up on TV this week, he's lost his Brian Epstein. May was a devout and ordered Christian traditionalist whose downfall was almost too much robotic order and self-organisation, not too little.
I want to bake free
I want to bake free from your pies
You're dough self-satisfied
I don't kneed you
I want to bake free
Cod knows
Cod knows I want to bake free
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
Happily, I think the last point is also right.
This may be true, but the same was said of Tony Blair in November 1997, and he spent another nine and a half years as Prime Minister. It was said so often that it became a running gag. When you start from such a high starting point as an 80-seat majority you can have many "worst weeks" before the situation becomes terminal.
I think it will be Starmer vs Johnson at the GE, and that that will be no sooner than 2 years away.
I found it very striking that the counter-briefing yesterday seemed to start from *inside* no.10 first, and then extend outward, first to the cabinet, and then other Tory MP's.
This dynamic doesn't remind me of May or Blair, or any other Prime Ministers, and again to me seems to point to the crucial point of him having lost his partner in crime from Vote Leave.
That being said, the evidence has been clear for some time that mixing and matching vaccines elicits the strongest immune response, so AZ-AZ-Pfizer may be the best of all worlds.
I have seldom seen an English team so completely dominant against a storied European club. They are in a different league (literally and metaphorically)
On the efficacy stuff, it does feel a bit soon, from a bumpkin pov, and there's still an element of 'which country is best' sneaking through a bit. I don't think most people will notice the difference of a few percent here and there though.
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch association for ICU doctors, calls for a hard lockdown as cases continue to rise, says hospitals are approaching "Code Black". Code black means hospitals have exhausted ICU capacity and doctors have to choose who gets treatment.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463288538800267270
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1460313047529103365
Pfizer is better in a two dose regime, but in a post-booster world, it's all much of a muchness.
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
So somewhat worse than the UK currently but with a rapidly worsening situation.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsTrust&areaName=Royal Surrey County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust
so perhaps it should get back to normal and restrict the anti-vaxxers to extreme need instead.
For ICU, the difference is even more stark - roughly 5x between March 2020 and now.
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames
Our World in Data shows likewise:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=NLD
I will double check tomorrow morning. My number, fwiw, is both ICU and regular.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)