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Now there’s talk of a confidence move against BJ – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,006
    Maybe a statement of the obvious but it's a good to know we're living in a real democracy in the sense that Johnson is probably facing a leadership challenge if he loses both of these by-elections, and that will be directed determined by around 150,000 voters in these two seats.
  • Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.

    I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.

    I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.

    I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.

    So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:

    1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)

    2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.

    3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.

    4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.

    5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.

    Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
  • isam said:

    Farooq said:

    Don't stop believing Boris haters! :lol:

    Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
    Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15
    I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.

    I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,756

    isam said:

    Farooq said:

    Don't stop believing Boris haters! :lol:

    Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
    Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15
    I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.

    I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)
    Tim was an entertaining fellow, but like all of us, got rather predictable after a while. A bit like his nemesis, SeanT. Fortunately SeanT realised when he was getting stale, and we've been fortunate he was replaced with a series of similar posters. Sometimes uncannily similar ... ;)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,392
    The Covid panic flap on the continent continues to accelerate: France has now started to circle the plughole, despite its numerous restrictions (including a wide-ranging vaxport scheme and compulsory gagging all over the place, including for primary school children.) Daily new cases were up 54% yesterday compared with last Tuesday, and the week-on-week increase in new cases has been well above or nearly at 50% for 11 days in a row.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-french-covid-19-infections-surge-over-30000-past-24-hours-minister-2021-11-23/
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Talk doesn't mean much. Sending in the letters is all that counts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,163
    edited November 2021
    Good morning one and all.
    Getting colder as we get towards December and the Shortest Day.

    Somewhat sadly I feel we've got to break out the Covid tests again, although as far as Mrs C & I are concerned, having had three vaccinations and the wretched thing itself, we ought to be OK for a bit.
    Could, of course, still carry it though. And I don't want our Family Christmas spoiled!

    On topic, I wait to see how the next PMQ's goes. If Starmer ties up the PM, or if the latter loses his rag, as he sometimes appears close to doing, then I think Conservative MP's will even more concerned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,040

    Good morning one and all.
    Getting colder as we get towards December and the Shortest Day.

    Somewhat sadly I feel we've got to break out the Covid tests again, although as far as Mrs C & I are concerned, having had three vaccinations and the wretched thing itself, we ought to be OK for a bit.
    Could, of course, still carry it though. And I don't want our Family Christmas spoiled!

    On topic, I wait to see how the next PMQ's goes. If Starmer ties up the PM, or if the latter loses his rag, as he sometimes appears close to doing, then I think Conservative MP's will even more concerned.

    Yes, unlike his hero, he’s a disappointment in the chamber, and that is where the morale of his backbenchers will be tested.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,040
    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,163
    edited November 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning one and all.
    Getting colder as we get towards December and the Shortest Day.

    Somewhat sadly I feel we've got to break out the Covid tests again, although as far as Mrs C & I are concerned, having had three vaccinations and the wretched thing itself, we ought to be OK for a bit.
    Could, of course, still carry it though. And I don't want our Family Christmas spoiled!

    On topic, I wait to see how the next PMQ's goes. If Starmer ties up the PM, or if the latter loses his rag, as he sometimes appears close to doing, then I think Conservative MP's will even more concerned.

    Yes, unlike his hero, he’s a disappointment in the chamber, and that is where the morale of his backbenchers will be tested.
    Quite, and, while I haven't got the figures I suspect there are a very high proportion on Conservative MP's who are new, and therefore have no memory of previous PM's.
    If their leader is getting chewed up and spat out by both the Opposition and the Speaker, then their loyalty will be tested.
    Not that I'm confident...... yet ...... that Starmer can or will do that! On a regular basis, anyway.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243

    isam said:

    Farooq said:

    Don't stop believing Boris haters! :lol:

    Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
    Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15
    I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.

    I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)
    Tim was an entertaining fellow, but like all of us, got rather predictable after a while. A bit like his nemesis, SeanT. Fortunately SeanT realised when he was getting stale, and we've been fortunate he was replaced with a series of similar posters. Sometimes uncannily similar ... ;)
    Given how often SeanT seems to follow / stalk those new posters, I find it better to think of them as from Followers / Studio of SeanT
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,050
    "The problem is that there are so many people frustrated with the PM at the moment that it's not easy to narrow down who might be bad-mouthing him," said one.

    https://mol.im/a/10236109
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,163

    eek said:

    isam said:

    Farooq said:

    Don't stop believing Boris haters! :lol:

    Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
    Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15
    I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.

    I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)
    Tim was an entertaining fellow, but like all of us, got rather predictable after a while. A bit like his nemesis, SeanT. Fortunately SeanT realised when he was getting stale, and we've been fortunate he was replaced with a series of similar posters. Sometimes uncannily similar ... ;)
    Given how often SeanT seems to follow / stalk those new posters, I find it better to think of them as from Followers / Studio of SeanT
    That's actually quite a scary thought. Somewhere in North London there's a candlelit garret room. Three man and women sat hunched over keyboards as their master examines their work. "No," he proclaims, "that insult is not quite witty enough! You should emphasise your disdain in a more assertive manner! Clear your mind and let your fingers brush over the keys! Remember, you are of the school of SeanT! Your work should replicate that of the master!"
    Is that six people altogether? Plus the 'master'?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,050
    eek said:

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.

    The same Longbenton that was refurbished at huge expense less than 20 years ago?

    If it is workers from Longbenton that would be true, but is it? If they are moving from Telford HMRC is more likely
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,191
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.
    Funnily enough I made a joke to my boss about backhanders when this was announced!

    You are right though, this has been on the cards for many months.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,144
    Old news, but have people seen the Steve Rosenberg interview with Lukashenko?

    Astonishing stuff.

    God bless the BBC.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.
    Funnily enough I made a joke to my boss about backhanders when this was announced!

    You are right though, this has been on the cards for many months.
    Yep it means they’ve finally found a use for the old odeon site and that closed in 2002.

    Shame that Stack goes, I quite like it
  • Don't stop believing Boris haters! :lol:

    They've been on quite a journey.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,191
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.

    The same Longbenton that was refurbished at huge expense less than 20 years ago?

    If it is workers from Longbenton that would be true, but is it? If they are moving from Telford HMRC is more likely
    No its Longbenton and Washington combining. This is very good news for Newcastle.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,050
    Column, the problem of "taking back control" when there are two sides to a border. Also, it turns out that France is really not very far away. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/23/brexiters-france-eurosceptic-tories-britain-eu
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.

    The same Longbenton that was refurbished at huge expense less than 20 years ago?

    If it is workers from Longbenton that would be true, but is it? If they are moving from Telford HMRC is more likely
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-59390938 (moving from Benton Park View and Washington - I suspect a few will be moving from Gosforth as well).

    Longbenton's offices are truly dire - I know I've mentioned it in the past, if it was refurbed 20 years ago it was done on the f***ing cheap because the interior isn't a 2000 era building it's still from the 70s.

    Also even though the building may have been refurbed the frames and the core infrastructure is 50 years old now (and was built for that lifetime).

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,191
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.

    The same Longbenton that was refurbished at huge expense less than 20 years ago?

    If it is workers from Longbenton that would be true, but is it? If they are moving from Telford HMRC is more likely
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-59390938 (moving from Benton Park View and Washington - I suspect a few will be moving from Gosforth as well).

    Longbenton's offices are truly dire - I know I've mentioned it in the past, if it was refurbed 20 years ago it was done on the f***ing cheap because the interior isn't a 2000 era building it's still from the 70s.

    Also even though the building may have been refurbed the frames and the core infrastructure is 50 years old now (and was built for that lifetime).

    Funnily enough the employees don't seem particularly happy with this as it means they’ll have to commute into the city centre and all the expense and lack of parking that involves.

    Maybe the government will do some levelling up of public transport..?
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.

    The same Longbenton that was refurbished at huge expense less than 20 years ago?

    If it is workers from Longbenton that would be true, but is it? If they are moving from Telford HMRC is more likely
    No its Longbenton and Washington combining. This is very good news for Newcastle.
    Washington isn't big - it's about 200 people.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,191
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
  • Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...



    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    16m
    Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    France reports Covid infection surge
    France has announced that there were more than 30,000 Covid infections in the past 24 hours, Reuters reports.

    On Monday, France reported 5,266 new cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/23/covid-news-live-india-records-smallest-daily-rise-in-cases-in-18-months-despite-festivals?page=with:block-619d12f08f0866e46b621eb0#block-619d12f08f0866e46b621eb0
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,050
    eek said:

    Longbenton's offices are truly dire - I know I've mentioned it in the past, if it was refurbed 20 years ago it was done on the f***ing cheap because the interior isn't a 2000 era building it's still from the 70s.

    I was there when the hospital wards from the 30's were torn down and replaced with entirely new structures.

    Is Block B still standing? That should have been bulldozed as well
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
    I thought that this was part of the plan to move parts of Ministries out of London. Again, not new jobs but new to the area.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,050

    No its Longbenton and Washington combining. This is very good news for Newcastle.

    That makes more sense, just.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    Let's outline the useful facts

    1) The Reubens know how to build and run an office block (it's where their money comes from)
    2) the Longbenton site is time served
    3) Government now needs a city based location for eco reasons
    4) this is the only site available (and it's been available for 20 years as people scrambled to find a use for it). HMRC/DWP or Sage (had they been inclined) really were the only options here.

  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
    I thought that this was part of the plan to move parts of Ministries out of London. Again, not new jobs but new to the area.
    Nope, this is mainly a regional move.

    DWP and HMRC Newcastle are already both important regional centres. Both have policy departments within the office which should tell you everything you need to know if you are / were as civil servant.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    edited November 2021

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    And? I’m sorry but there is a need to move away from Longbenton and given that the only plausible plan is an office in central Newcastle (which was already announced) all that was left is to find a big enough office block.

    And the only one available is this one (which has been equally known for about a year).

    Finally unless things have changed it’s actually more DWP than HMRC workers.
    Funnily enough I made a joke to my boss about backhanders when this was announced!

    You are right though, this has been on the cards for many months.
    10th June 2021:

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/hmrc-leave-benton-park-view-20784910

    Yesterday:

    https://www.newcastle.gov.uk/citylife-news/9000-staff-move-newcastle-city-centre
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,583
    edited November 2021
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    Let's outline the useful facts

    1) The Reubens know how to build and run an office block (it's where their money comes from)
    2) the Longbenton site is time served
    3) Government now needs a city based location for eco reasons
    4) this is the only site available (and it's been available for 20 years as people scrambled to find a use for it). HMRC/DWP or Sage (had they been inclined) really were the only options here.

    You might add that Newcastle town centre needs a serious boost of spending power and that this will provide it. Last time I was there Eldon Square was really struggling (as are so many shopping centres, given the loss of key retailers).

    But the point is that there is nothing wrong with the PM meeting the developers, nothing at all.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    edited November 2021

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
    I actually pity the people moving from Washington. Previously it was a short car drive into a private car park on an industrial estate (it's Washington, if it's not a housing estate it's an industrial park). Now they need to find a means of getting into central Newcastle, they don't have the metro or a train and car parking is blooming expensive.
  • Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
    I actually pity the people moving from Washington. Previously it was a short car drive into a private car park on an industrial estate (it's Washington, if it's not a housing estate it's an industrial park). Now they need to find a means of getting into central Newcastle, they don't have the metro or a train and car parking is blooming expensive.
    They ate civil servants. They will have their travel costs protected for up to three years.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816
    Roger said:
    That is good news for him, the Mail has been increasingly vitriolic and has some influence on the rank and file. This should dial it back a bit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
    I actually pity the people moving from Washington. Previously it was a short car drive into a private car park on an industrial estate (it's Washington, if it's not a housing estate it's an industrial park). Now they need to find a means of getting into central Newcastle, they don't have the metro or a train and car parking is blooming expensive.
    They ate civil servants. They will have their travel costs protected for up to three years.
    Is eating civil servants allowed? Maybe this dinner was more controversial than I realised.
  • isam said:

    Farooq said:

    Don't stop believing Boris haters! :lol:

    Boris haters are more in line with public opinion than Boris fanbois:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
    Polling vs PB Tory anecdote, copyright tim 2010-15
    I miss tim. He was a wonder to witness. I’ve seen him single-handedly taking on a 50-strong PB Tory Herd and win hands-down. An absolute grand master of the blogging arts.

    I think someone said he now posts on Twitter? A shame I just can’t be bothered with that platform. (Big thanks to the folks on here that point out tidbits, saving me the bother.)
    Tim was an entertaining fellow, but like all of us, got rather predictable after a while. A bit like his nemesis, SeanT. Fortunately SeanT realised when he was getting stale, and we've been fortunate he was replaced with a series of similar posters. Sometimes uncannily similar ... ;)
    You can follow Tim on Twitter. He's

    ForgottenGenius
    @ExStrategist
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    edited November 2021
    Dame Kate Bingham criticises govt on R4 over Valneva decision - would have provided long term resilience and vaccines for children.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,953

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,147
    A LAY of Starmer leave date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets at 2.78 (currently) is a good bet. I've topped up my position this morning at 2.69 but 2.78 is still value IMO.

    The danger is a May 2023 GE, LP defeat and he resigns. An Autumn 2023 election is no risk because of the time lag for LP to elect a new leader (would go into 2024 and the bet still wins).
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    It is important to point out that these are not new jobs. They are just moving them from other places in the NE to Newcastle city centre.
    I actually pity the people moving from Washington. Previously it was a short car drive into a private car park on an industrial estate (it's Washington, if it's not a housing estate it's an industrial park). Now they need to find a means of getting into central Newcastle, they don't have the metro or a train and car parking is blooming expensive.
    They ate civil servants. They will have their travel costs protected for up to three years.
    And if they're moving from Longbenton, as mentioned by DavidL, then most people will travel by Metro anyway, and from all over the North East. For many, the city centre will be easier. Anyone based in Washington probably will have a harder time of it (depending on where they live) but that always happens with office locations. (As it happens, I passed my driving test at Longbenton).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    Loved this sentence: "People always say they want their politicians to write their own speeches and Peppa Pig is what happens when they do."

    Edit, it is an excellent piece because it shows that the problems and the success are very much based around the Boris brand which is not going to change. As he notes the Tories are in a remarkably strong position at this stage in the Parliament and that is down to Boris reaching voters no other Tory is going to get near. It's why this thread header is, in my view, nonsense.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    Stocky said:

    A LAY of Starmer leave date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets at 2.78 (currently) is a good bet. I've topped up my position this morning at 2.69 but 2.78 is still value IMO.

    The danger is a May 2023 GE, LP defeat and he resigns. An Autumn 2023 election is no risk because of the time lag for LP to elect a new leader (would go into 2024 and the bet still wins).

    There isn't going to be a general election prior to October 2023 - Boris (or whoever else is in charge) will want the new boundaries in place
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,191
    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Right, but that’s a criticism of both the left and the right but obviously you frame it as merely a criticism of the left.

    Lazy.
  • Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...



    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    16m
    Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    France reports Covid infection surge
    France has announced that there were more than 30,000 Covid infections in the past 24 hours, Reuters reports.

    On Monday, France reported 5,266 new cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/23/covid-news-live-india-records-smallest-daily-rise-in-cases-in-18-months-despite-festivals?page=with:block-619d12f08f0866e46b621eb0#block-619d12f08f0866e46b621eb0
    Would it be fair to say that France's strategy to combat Covid-19 is quasi-effective?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,583
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    Let's outline the useful facts

    1) The Reubens know how to build and run an office block (it's where their money comes from)
    2) the Longbenton site is time served
    3) Government now needs a city based location for eco reasons
    4) this is the only site available (and it's been available for 20 years as people scrambled to find a use for it). HMRC/DWP or Sage (had they been inclined) really were the only options here.

    No the salient facts are that this company gets a government contract and has contributed hundred of thousands of £££££££££££'s to the Tory Party and gets to sit next to the Prime Minister at a 'Lavish winter ball' Only a Tory couldn't see what's wrong whether they were the best option or not. This government and its supporters have no moral compass whatsoever.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,583

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    Welcome to the Anglosphere!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,953

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Right, but that’s a criticism of both the left and the right but obviously you frame it as merely a criticism of the left.

    Lazy.
    Because in this particular case it’s the left being idiots. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of right-wing idiots in the States too.
  • Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816
    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    What does it say about Trump that he is so keen to meet someone who's claim to fame is that he killed 2 people and seriously wounded another, acquitted or not? No one is coming back together whilst his baleful influence holds sway.
  • He really should have held out for a viscountcy like one his predecessors, Bertrand Dawson.

    The Queen has honoured her chief royal physician with a knighthood in a personal investiture ceremony held today at Windsor Castle.

    The 95-year-old monarch conferred the accolade on Professor Sir Huw Thomas, who is also a consultant gastroenterologist at St Mary’s Hospital London, just over a month after she was ordered to rest by royal doctors.

    It is likely that Thomas, who has been head of the medical household for seven years, was behind the Queen’s decision to miss several high-profile engagements after concerns about her health....

    ...It is understood that the Queen personally invested Thomas separately with the Insignia of a Knight Commander of the Royal Victorian Order. He was made a Knight Commander at the start of this year in the New Year’s Honours list.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/queen-honours-chief-physician-professor-sir-huw-thomas-with-knighthood-in-private-ceremony-n8wxgh0z0
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    I had no idea he was a Brummie!
  • On topic, having read a few articles and exchanged messages with a few people I think Sunak is more likely to leave the cabinet first than Boris Johnson is to leave Number 10.

    Some have started to call the Chancellor the 'midget submarine'.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,147

    Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.

    I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.

    I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.

    I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.

    So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:

    1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)

    2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.

    3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.

    4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.

    5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.

    Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
    Betting Post:

    I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).

    I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.

    I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.

    First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.

    Next Leader:

    Sunak 5/2 3.8

    Truss 7/1 7.0

    Hunt 10/1 12.5

    Javid 20/1 24

    Next PM:

    Sunak 11/4 3.85

    Truss 12/1 8.6

    Hunt 14/1 14.5

    Javid 25/1 38


    First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.

    The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.

    What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?

    I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.

    Views please - especially from @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,292

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,147
    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    A LAY of Starmer leave date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets at 2.78 (currently) is a good bet. I've topped up my position this morning at 2.69 but 2.78 is still value IMO.

    The danger is a May 2023 GE, LP defeat and he resigns. An Autumn 2023 election is no risk because of the time lag for LP to elect a new leader (would go into 2024 and the bet still wins).

    There isn't going to be a general election prior to October 2023 - Boris (or whoever else is in charge) will want the new boundaries in place
    I agree - one of the reasons for my confidence in this bet.
  • Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
  • Paging @Dura_Ace

    FLOP GUN! £100million Royal Navy fighter jet crashed ‘because cheap plastic rain cover was left on during take-off’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16829088/royal-navy-fighter-jet-crash/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,982

    He really should have held out for a viscountcy like one his predecessors, Bertrand Dawson.

    The Queen has honoured her chief royal physician with a knighthood in a personal investiture ceremony held today at Windsor Castle.

    The 95-year-old monarch conferred the accolade on Professor Sir Huw Thomas, who is also a consultant gastroenterologist at St Mary’s Hospital London, just over a month after she was ordered to rest by royal doctors.

    It is likely that Thomas, who has been head of the medical household for seven years, was behind the Queen’s decision to miss several high-profile engagements after concerns about her health....

    ...It is understood that the Queen personally invested Thomas separately with the Insignia of a Knight Commander of the Royal Victorian Order. He was made a Knight Commander at the start of this year in the New Year’s Honours list.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/queen-honours-chief-physician-professor-sir-huw-thomas-with-knighthood-in-private-ceremony-n8wxgh0z0

    That was a reward for murdering the monarch. Perhaps this is a bribe to dissuade him?
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243

    On topic, having read a few articles and exchanged messages with a few people I think Sunak is more likely to leave the cabinet first than Boris Johnson is to leave Number 10.

    Some have started to call the Chancellor the 'midget submarine'.

    Sunak's best chance is if Boris goes prior to May 1st 2022.

    After that his stealth tax rises will be obvious to the general public and MPs will be hearing complaint,
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,618

    On topic, having read a few articles and exchanged messages with a few people I think Sunak is more likely to leave the cabinet first than Boris Johnson is to leave Number 10.

    Some have started to call the Chancellor the 'midget submarine'.

    On that note, a very interesting stat this morning:

    Rishi Sunak's net favourability rating enters negative territory (-3) for the first time since March 2020

    Favourable: 38% (down 3pts from 11 Nov)
    Unfavourable: 41% (up 2pts)

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1463165009874370572?s=21

    Is this collateral damage from Boris and the general state of things in government, or specific disquiet with the economy? I suspect more the former, as I know the ratings for Patel, Truss and others have fallen equally or more rapidly, but it does give the lie a bit to the idea there’s a handsome hoodie-wearing prince waiting to ride to the rescue.
  • Stocky said:

    Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.

    I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.

    I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.

    I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.

    So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:

    1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)

    2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.

    3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.

    4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.

    5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.

    Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
    Betting Post:

    I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).

    I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.

    I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.

    First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.

    Next Leader:

    Sunak 5/2 3.8

    Truss 7/1 7.0

    Hunt 10/1 12.5

    Javid 20/1 24

    Next PM:

    Sunak 11/4 3.85

    Truss 12/1 8.6

    Hunt 14/1 14.5

    Javid 25/1 38


    First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.

    The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.

    What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?

    I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.

    Views please - especially from @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark

    Sadly it is quite plausible the next contest is seven or eight years away, in which case the winner might be one of the 2019 intake perhaps even yet to take a ministerial post, let alone be a big hitter such as the above.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,567
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Right, but that’s a criticism of both the left and the right but obviously you frame it as merely a criticism of the left.

    Lazy.
    Because in this particular case it’s the left being idiots. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of right-wing idiots in the States too.
    Trump and a Rittenhouse being a couple of them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,893

    Paging @Dura_Ace

    FLOP GUN! £100million Royal Navy fighter jet crashed ‘because cheap plastic rain cover was left on during take-off’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16829088/royal-navy-fighter-jet-crash/

    Oh dear. Some poor soul is going to have their salary docked by £10/month for nearly a million years.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,618

    Old news, but have people seen the Steve Rosenberg interview with Lukashenko?

    Astonishing stuff.

    God bless the BBC.

    “I would say it’s more like 87% or 90% now”.

    The barefaced, hiding in plain sight, implausible deniability style of lying perfected by Putin, jazzed up by Trump and channelled by Johnson is alive and thriving in Belarus.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Right, but that’s a criticism of both the left and the right but obviously you frame it as merely a criticism of the left.

    Lazy.
    Because in this particular case it’s the left being idiots. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of right-wing idiots in the States too.
    Wandering around town with a machine gun seems pretty idiotic to me.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,618
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Right, but that’s a criticism of both the left and the right but obviously you frame it as merely a criticism of the left.

    Lazy.
    Because in this particular case it’s the left being idiots. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of right-wing idiots in the States too.
    Trump and a Rittenhouse being a couple of them.
    Trump associating with Rittenhouse in this way might be a useful wake-up call to some traditional floating voters minded to give the Democrats a mid term kicking. Reminder that they’re dealing with a monster/mobster.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,292

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
    It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,728
    Scott_xP said:
    Boris is Boris we all know and knew that.

    I will just put some traits out there, however:

    - being unable to sit still, especially in calm or quiet surroundings.
    - constantly fidgeting.
    - being unable to concentrate on tasks.
    - excessive physical movement.
    - excessive talking.
    - being unable to wait their turn.
    - acting without thinking.
    - interrupting conversations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,567
    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Right, but that’s a criticism of both the left and the right but obviously you frame it as merely a criticism of the left.

    Lazy.
    Because in this particular case it’s the left being idiots. Don’t worry, there’s plenty of right-wing idiots in the States too.
    Wandering around town with a machine gun seems pretty idiotic to me.
    Republicans, of course, want the Supreme Court to mandate such irresponsible behaviour is legally protected in every state, irrespective of the wishes of state government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,816

    On topic, having read a few articles and exchanged messages with a few people I think Sunak is more likely to leave the cabinet first than Boris Johnson is to leave Number 10.

    Some have started to call the Chancellor the 'midget submarine'.

    Sunak leaving this cabinet would be like Howe leaving Maggie's. The beginning of the end.
  • Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).

    Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:

    "They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.

    Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
    It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
    Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,943

    Up yours Delores. Or whoever is running France these days...



    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    16m
    Wednesday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “AstraZeneca vaccine may give longer protection” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    France reports Covid infection surge
    France has announced that there were more than 30,000 Covid infections in the past 24 hours, Reuters reports.

    On Monday, France reported 5,266 new cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/23/covid-news-live-india-records-smallest-daily-rise-in-cases-in-18-months-despite-festivals?page=with:block-619d12f08f0866e46b621eb0#block-619d12f08f0866e46b621eb0
    Would it be fair to say that France's strategy to combat Covid-19 is quasi-effective?
    Without digging deeper that look like reporting issues/catch up from weekend more than anything else.
  • Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    Using the logic of the NRA if there'd been a "good guy with a gun" on the scene they could have killed Rittenhouse ending his killing spree and then they'd have been the ones to be able to claim self-defence.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,235
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,567

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
    It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
    Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
    Well those who said the Biden administration would be weak on China were wrong.
    I think another term for Trump would likely see Taiwan lost.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,900

    Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).

    Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:

    "They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.

    Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."

    Trump would win all of them on the latest poll

    MICHIGAN
    Trump 53% (+12)
    Biden 41%
    .
    WISCONSIN
    Trump 52% (+10)
    Biden 42%
    .
    ARIZONA
    Trump 51% (+8)
    Biden 43%
    .
    PENNSYLVANIA
    Trump 51% (+6)
    Biden 45%
    .
    GEORGIA
    Trump 48% (+3)
    Biden 45%

    https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1463170659610157058?s=20
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,618
    edited November 2021

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
    It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
    Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
    It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.

    My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.

    It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,461
    edited November 2021

    Paging @Dura_Ace

    FLOP GUN! £100million Royal Navy fighter jet crashed ‘because cheap plastic rain cover was left on during take-off’

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16829088/royal-navy-fighter-jet-crash/

    In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.

    CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.

    For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,900
    Stocky said:

    Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.

    I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.

    I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.

    I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.

    So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:

    1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)

    2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.

    3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.

    4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.

    5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.

    Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
    Betting Post:

    I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).

    I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.

    I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.

    First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.

    Next Leader:

    Sunak 5/2 3.8

    Truss 7/1 7.0

    Hunt 10/1 12.5

    Javid 20/1 24

    Next PM:

    Sunak 11/4 3.85

    Truss 12/1 8.6

    Hunt 14/1 14.5

    Javid 25/1 38


    First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.

    The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.

    What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?

    I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.

    Views please - especially from @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark

    At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.

    Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
  • eekeek Posts: 19,243
    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).

    Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:

    "They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.

    Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."

    Trump would win all of them on the latest poll

    MICHIGAN
    Trump 53% (+12)
    Biden 41%
    .
    WISCONSIN
    Trump 52% (+10)
    Biden 42%
    .
    ARIZONA
    Trump 51% (+8)
    Biden 43%
    .
    PENNSYLVANIA
    Trump 51% (+6)
    Biden 45%
    .
    GEORGIA
    Trump 48% (+3)
    Biden 45%

    https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1463170659610157058?s=20
    Yep, even on a curious glance it's easy to see how Trump wins in 2024 and very hard to see how the Democrats can avoid losing by miles.
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).

    Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:

    "They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.

    Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."

    Trump would win all of them on the latest poll

    MICHIGAN
    Trump 53% (+12)
    Biden 41%
    .
    WISCONSIN
    Trump 52% (+10)
    Biden 42%
    .
    ARIZONA
    Trump 51% (+8)
    Biden 43%
    .
    PENNSYLVANIA
    Trump 51% (+6)
    Biden 45%
    .
    GEORGIA
    Trump 48% (+3)
    Biden 45%

    https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1463170659610157058?s=20
    Yep, even on a curious glance it's easy to see how Trump wins in 2024 and very hard to see how the Democrats can avoid losing by miles.
    Depends what "see" means here. If they work together as a team to deliver stuff in the period before the midterms whilst they still can, then there is no reason they can't win. If they carry on bickering and blocking each other, then they lose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,900
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).

    Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:

    "They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.

    Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."

    Trump would win all of them on the latest poll

    MICHIGAN
    Trump 53% (+12)
    Biden 41%
    .
    WISCONSIN
    Trump 52% (+10)
    Biden 42%
    .
    ARIZONA
    Trump 51% (+8)
    Biden 43%
    .
    PENNSYLVANIA
    Trump 51% (+6)
    Biden 45%
    .
    GEORGIA
    Trump 48% (+3)
    Biden 45%

    https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1463170659610157058?s=20
    Yep, even on a curious glance it's easy to see how Trump wins in 2024 and very hard to see how the Democrats can avoid losing by miles.
    Although to give some comfort to Biden, Romney also led Obama at this stage in late 2009 and Dole led Bill Clinton at this stage in late 1993 and both Obama and Clinton recovered after the midterms.

    Although Biden also led Trump at this stage in late 2017 too and Trump did not recover enough to be re elected
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,292
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
    What should have happened is law enforcement by well trained and disciplined police authorities.

    Not random teenage vigilantes turning up from out of state with automatic weapons
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).

    Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:

    "They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.

    Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."

    Trump would win all of them on the latest poll

    MICHIGAN
    Trump 53% (+12)
    Biden 41%
    .
    WISCONSIN
    Trump 52% (+10)
    Biden 42%
    .
    ARIZONA
    Trump 51% (+8)
    Biden 43%
    .
    PENNSYLVANIA
    Trump 51% (+6)
    Biden 45%
    .
    GEORGIA
    Trump 48% (+3)
    Biden 45%

    https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1463170659610157058?s=20
    Yep, even on a curious glance it's easy to see how Trump wins in 2024 and very hard to see how the Democrats can avoid losing by miles.
    It's a vey depressing thought. Very depressing. I don't see how America survives another Trump term in a recognisable form.

    But, yep, certainly looks like he will win easily unless something turns up or perhaps someone from Dem side. Those kind of numbers in swing states look more serious than mid term blues?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,583
    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Are you being serious? It's not always easy to tell these days. Just in case you are do you see nothing wrong with an 18 year old boy getting hold of a machine gun and driving 80 miles to a town and shooting people with it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,050
    Absolutely priceless picture-caption combo from @SkyNews https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1463173976281255948/photo/1
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.

    I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.

    I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.

    I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.

    So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:

    1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)

    2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.

    3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.

    4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.

    5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.

    Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
    Betting Post:

    I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).

    I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.

    I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.

    First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.

    Next Leader:

    Sunak 5/2 3.8

    Truss 7/1 7.0

    Hunt 10/1 12.5

    Javid 20/1 24

    Next PM:

    Sunak 11/4 3.85

    Truss 12/1 8.6

    Hunt 14/1 14.5

    Javid 25/1 38


    First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.

    The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.

    What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?

    I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.

    Views please - especially from @HYUFD and @MarqueeMark

    At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.

    Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
    You are probably right on last part. I can well see membership electing Truss over Sunak, especially in opposition.

    But Tory MPs are clever, so unless she has significant back bench support they will engineer Sunak facing someone else.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,599
    Scott_xP said:
    I found the article very interesting but there is a problem with it. We are regularly told the Boris we see is an act, reinforced by the Jeremy Vine story of his identical performance prior to after dinner speeches.

    Both stories of Boris can't be true. It's either a genuine Boris or an act. It can't be both. Everyone is guessing.
  • Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    Are you being serious? It's not always easy to tell these days. Just in case you are do you see nothing wrong with an 18 year old boy getting hold of a machine gun and driving 80 miles to a town and shooting people with it?
    Well I think we should have a good hard think about whether the legal age for driving should be increased to 21.
  • Mr. Roger, from how far away had others driven?

    If police protected property then there'd be more justification against the public seeking to do so themselves.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,030
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.

    Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.

    Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.

    So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.

    I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
    Let's outline the useful facts

    1) The Reubens know how to build and run an office block (it's where their money comes from)
    2) the Longbenton site is time served
    3) Government now needs a city based location for eco reasons
    4) this is the only site available (and it's been available for 20 years as people scrambled to find a use for it). HMRC/DWP or Sage (had they been inclined) really were the only options here.

    The Reuben brothers are also major investors in Newcastle City centre owning property and undertaking numerous developments. They’re the idea partners.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,235
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.


    What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?

    The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
    ‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
    Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
    Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
    It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
    Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
    It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.

    My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.

    It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
    A while ago I told people about 'sauna woman'; and anti vaxxer who sits in our local swimming pool sauna who refuses to be vaccinated and tells everyone about the conspiracy theories she has read about on the internet. It seems that she just gets hold of vague ideas and sees a grand conspiracy involving a plan by the worlds elites as part of the "great reset" to end freedom and control people through by Covid-19.

    A couple of months ago I sat there for 40 minutes and tried to explain everything to her and she seemed to listen. But then a few weeks ago I went back to the sauna and it was like our conversation never happened. She was just riffing on the same theories over and over again.

    In the end there is just an overpowering human instinct for easy answers; and unless governments find a way of reigning in the internet, this is where people will find them.
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