Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
There is no saving sizeable chunks of America. They vote for the rights of the shooter massacring their kids in schools. They vote for tax and healthcare that makes them iller and poorer. That this look gets acquitted of vigilante murder wasn't that much of a surprise.
I've travelled around 29 states and the abiding impression I got was that it was a zoo. Completely different kinds of people all enclosed into a single exhibit. Now that one side are convinced the other side want to take their food away and the other side think the first lot want to eat them it has descended into chaos.
I found the article very interesting but there is a problem with it. We are regularly told the Boris we see is an act, reinforced by the Jeremy Vine story of his identical performance prior to after dinner speeches.
Both stories of Boris can't be true. It's either a genuine Boris or an act. It can't be both. Everyone is guessing.
Perfectly coherent. He struggles with detail, concentration, focus, and hence has some "set pieces" which he uses as props to allow him to function on those occasions.
As I posted upthread, it looks for all the world to me that Boris is displaying traits which seem to be coherent and characteristic of various states. Someone asked him "are you ok" which is perhaps to misunderstand those symptoms.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
What should have happened is law enforcement by well trained and disciplined police authorities.
Not random teenage vigilantes turning up from out of state with automatic weapons
Are you seriously suggesting that the feds should have rounded up the BLM protesters and sent them all to jail?
The failings of law enforcement seems to have been in mostly democrat states; where effective policing of the riots was curbed by sympathetic left wing politicians.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.
My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.
It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
A while ago I told people about 'sauna woman'; and anti vaxxer who sits in our local swimming pool sauna who refuses to be vaccinated and tells everyone about the conspiracy theories she has read about on the internet. It seems that she just gets hold of vague ideas and sees a grand conspiracy involving a plan by the worlds elites as part of the "great reset" to end freedom and control people through by Covid-19.
A couple of months ago I sat there for 40 minutes and tried to explain everything to her and she seemed to listen. But then a few weeks ago I went back to the sauna and it was like our conversation never happened. She was just riffing on the same theories over and over again.
In the end there is just an overpowering human instinct for easy answers; and unless governments find a way of reigning in the internet, this is where people will find them.
The Great Reset is a thing. Anti-vaxxers have really latched onto this.
In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.
CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.
For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
No no no. Labour are soft on defence. The Tories always provide our Brave Boys with the very best of everything. Now Stand Up when you bellow out Rule Britannia like the Nigel does.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.
CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.
For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
No no no. Labour are soft on defence. The Tories always provide our Brave Boys with the very best of everything. Now Stand Up when you bellow out Rule Britannia like the Nigel does.
Oh come on. You know that the CONS could disband our armed forces and donate our tanks and guns to Costa Rica, while LAB could close all hospitals and send the NHS staff down the mines and CONS would still be the party of our boys and Lab would still be the party of the NHS.
A LAY of Starmer leave date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets at 2.78 (currently) is a good bet. I've topped up my position this morning at 2.69 but 2.78 is still value IMO.
The danger is a May 2023 GE, LP defeat and he resigns. An Autumn 2023 election is no risk because of the time lag for LP to elect a new leader (would go into 2024 and the bet still wins).
Agreed, that's almost free money, failing some unexpected disaster. I know lots of left-wingers, who vary from departure to morose tolerance, but nobody is working to change Starmer. And in truth the strategy of being calm, sensible and policy-light for now may be gradually coming right.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
I know the Conservative party doesn't, but do I see a split on the horizon? After all, Labour nearly did (again) after Corbyn's election.
In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.
CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.
For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.
My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.
It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
A while ago I told people about 'sauna woman'; and anti vaxxer who sits in our local swimming pool sauna who refuses to be vaccinated and tells everyone about the conspiracy theories she has read about on the internet. It seems that she just gets hold of vague ideas and sees a grand conspiracy involving a plan by the worlds elites as part of the "great reset" to end freedom and control people through by Covid-19.
A couple of months ago I sat there for 40 minutes and tried to explain everything to her and she seemed to listen. But then a few weeks ago I went back to the sauna and it was like our conversation never happened. She was just riffing on the same theories over and over again.
In the end there is just an overpowering human instinct for easy answers; and unless governments find a way of reigning in the internet, this is where people will find them.
The Great Reset is a thing. Anti-vaxxers have really latched onto this.
Look on the bright side. For ages people have been bemoaning the fact that civilisation has put paid to natural selection in humans.
All we need is a really deadly virus and a really effective vaccine for it, and the intelligence of the species will probably double in one generation.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I found the article very interesting but there is a problem with it. We are regularly told the Boris we see is an act, reinforced by the Jeremy Vine story of his identical performance prior to after dinner speeches.
Both stories of Boris can't be true. It's either a genuine Boris or an act. It can't be both. Everyone is guessing.
Really don't see the problem. Boris is his act. Which, considering it has served him so well for so long, is hardly surprising. As Finkelstein so cleverly points out it is those who expect anything different for good or ill that are going to be disappointed.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.
My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.
It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
A while ago I told people about 'sauna woman'; and anti vaxxer who sits in our local swimming pool sauna who refuses to be vaccinated and tells everyone about the conspiracy theories she has read about on the internet. It seems that she just gets hold of vague ideas and sees a grand conspiracy involving a plan by the worlds elites as part of the "great reset" to end freedom and control people through by Covid-19.
A couple of months ago I sat there for 40 minutes and tried to explain everything to her and she seemed to listen. But then a few weeks ago I went back to the sauna and it was like our conversation never happened. She was just riffing on the same theories over and over again.
In the end there is just an overpowering human instinct for easy answers; and unless governments find a way of reining in the internet, this is where people will find them.
Governments have their own overpowering instinct for easy answers.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.
My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.
It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
A while ago I told people about 'sauna woman'; and anti vaxxer who sits in our local swimming pool sauna who refuses to be vaccinated and tells everyone about the conspiracy theories she has read about on the internet. It seems that she just gets hold of vague ideas and sees a grand conspiracy involving a plan by the worlds elites as part of the "great reset" to end freedom and control people through by Covid-19.
A couple of months ago I sat there for 40 minutes and tried to explain everything to her and she seemed to listen. But then a few weeks ago I went back to the sauna and it was like our conversation never happened. She was just riffing on the same theories over and over again.
In the end there is just an overpowering human instinct for easy answers; and unless governments find a way of reigning in the internet, this is where people will find them.
The Great Reset is a thing. Anti-vaxxers have really latched onto this.
Look on the bright side. For ages people have been bemoaning the fact that civilisation has put paid to natural selection in humans.
All we need is a really deadly virus and a really effective vaccine for it, and the intelligence of the species will probably double in one generation.
Yes, the great reset is a thing however they are adding two and two and getting five.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
What's the reference to the findings of juries a reference to? If it's Rittenhouse, the statement he made is:
While the verdict in Kenosha will leave many Americans feeling angry and concerned, myself included, we must acknowledge that the jury has spoken,” Biden said Friday afternoon. “I ran on a promise to bring Americans together, because I believe that what unites us is far greater than what divides us. I know that we’re not going to heal our country’s wounds overnight, but I remain steadfast in my commitment to do everything in my power to ensure that every American is treated equally, with fairness and dignity, under the law.”
The president went on to say “I urge everyone to express their views peacefully, consistent with the rule of law. Violence and destruction of property have no place in our democracy. The White House and Federal authorities have been in contact with Governor Evers’s office to prepare for any outcome in this case, and I have spoken with the governor this afternoon and offered support and any assistance needed to ensure public safety.”
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
What, like "the jury system works and we must abide by the decision" ?
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
What's the reference to the findings of juries a reference to? If it's Rittenhouse, the statement he made is:
While the verdict in Kenosha will leave many Americans feeling angry and concerned, myself included, we must acknowledge that the jury has spoken,” Biden said Friday afternoon. “I ran on a promise to bring Americans together, because I believe that what unites us is far greater than what divides us. I know that we’re not going to heal our country’s wounds overnight, but I remain steadfast in my commitment to do everything in my power to ensure that every American is treated equally, with fairness and dignity, under the law.”
The president went on to say “I urge everyone to express their views peacefully, consistent with the rule of law. Violence and destruction of property have no place in our democracy. The White House and Federal authorities have been in contact with Governor Evers’s office to prepare for any outcome in this case, and I have spoken with the governor this afternoon and offered support and any assistance needed to ensure public safety.”
I think bringing such facts into the debate is most unfair.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Hush your mouth. He rules. I like his easy confident style of which that is an example.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
Heading? It is already there, just look at the January 6th insurrection and the events leading up to that.
It's going to be in a much darker place soon.
Indeed. The question for us is can it mostly be contained to US politics or will it end up infecting UK and other Western politics and/or the global economy. No-one seems to be discussing this, probably because it is too grim to contemplate.
It’s already infecting us over here in many ways.
My mother in law recently came to stay. She’s a religious fundamentalist / young earth creationist, devout Brexiteer and anti-vaxxer so I expected a fun few days. But what was really telling was her patter and her sources of misinformation: it was American religious right, not Tory Britain. She had straightforwardly middle of road views on UK domestic issues like HS2 or social care. The cultish language only emerges when we get on to topics favoured by the US right.
It’s like she’s been possessed by the ghost of some crazy Fox News presenter and is speaking in American tongues,
A while ago I told people about 'sauna woman'; and anti vaxxer who sits in our local swimming pool sauna who refuses to be vaccinated and tells everyone about the conspiracy theories she has read about on the internet. It seems that she just gets hold of vague ideas and sees a grand conspiracy involving a plan by the worlds elites as part of the "great reset" to end freedom and control people through by Covid-19.
A couple of months ago I sat there for 40 minutes and tried to explain everything to her and she seemed to listen. But then a few weeks ago I went back to the sauna and it was like our conversation never happened. She was just riffing on the same theories over and over again.
In the end there is just an overpowering human instinct for easy answers; and unless governments find a way of reigning in the internet, this is where people will find them.
In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.
CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.
For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
I did wonder who would be salvaging the plane.
In theory the RN has a privatised salvage operation. In reality, it's based on the west coast of Scotland and there is nothing forward deployed so the F-35B bits would be in Zhukovsky by the time they got organised and got to the eastern med.
SUPSALV got an SH-60 off the bottom of the Pacific at nearly 6,000m earlier this year.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
I know the Conservative party doesn't, but do I see a split on the horizon? After all, Labour nearly did (again) after Corbyn's election.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
What should have happened is law enforcement by well trained and disciplined police authorities.
Not random teenage vigilantes turning up from out of state with automatic weapons
Are you seriously suggesting that the feds should have rounded up the BLM protesters and sent them all to jail?
The failings of law enforcement seems to have been in mostly democrat states; where effective policing of the riots was curbed by sympathetic left wing politicians.
No, I am seriously suggest that they arrest people committing crimes, and support legitimate peaceful protests from being hijacked.
It is pretty basic policing in democratic societies.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.
CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.
For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
I did wonder who would be salvaging the plane.
In theory the RN has a privatised salvage operation. In reality, it's based on the west coast of Scotland and there is nothing forward deployed so the F-35B bits would be in Zhukovsky by the time they got organised and got to the eastern med.
SUPSALV got an SH-60 off the bottom of the Pacific at nearly 6,000m earlier this year.
In practice, the US isn't going to let Putin pick up any F35s. So long as we don't scatter too many them around at once.
I found the article very interesting but there is a problem with it. We are regularly told the Boris we see is an act, reinforced by the Jeremy Vine story of his identical performance prior to after dinner speeches.
Both stories of Boris can't be true. It's either a genuine Boris or an act. It can't be both. Everyone is guessing.
Perfectly coherent. He struggles with detail, concentration, focus, and hence has some "set pieces" which he uses as props to allow him to function on those occasions.
As I posted upthread, it looks for all the world to me that Boris is displaying traits which seem to be coherent and characteristic of various states. Someone asked him "are you ok" which is perhaps to misunderstand those symptoms.
Agree. One of the best pieces I've read about Boris. If anything, as the Fink says, Boris is too confident, hence the attempt to wing the CBI speech. Who else would have the chutzpah to riff on Peppa Pig in front of an audience like that. BJ doesn't really care what the suits think.
"After his speech, a reporter asked the prime minister if he was OK. This was a witty question, but also missed the point. This was him being OK. Johnson didn’t lose his place, imitate a motor car and ramble on about Peppa Pig because something was wrong with him. He did it because extended metaphor, subversion of the form, shambolic messiness and disorganisation are how he gives every speech — how he has given every speech for 40 years. Often it works brilliantly for him. This time it was catastrophic and disrespectful to his audience."
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Hush your mouth. He rules. I like his easy confident style of which that is an example.
Or we could make him listen to uninterrupted Alvar Lidell recordings for a month...
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
From what I have heard I don't think it is murder but manslaughter of some kind would seem correct. It is at least as bad as causing death by drunk driving imo.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
I'm a fan of his but you're quite right. This is a new affectation which didn't exist until he did a program which involved interviewing a trendoid who dropped every consonant they could and he started consciously or unconsciously imitating them.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Thanks.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
What's the reference to the findings of juries a reference to? If it's Rittenhouse, the statement he made is:
While the verdict in Kenosha will leave many Americans feeling angry and concerned, myself included, we must acknowledge that the jury has spoken,” Biden said Friday afternoon. “I ran on a promise to bring Americans together, because I believe that what unites us is far greater than what divides us. I know that we’re not going to heal our country’s wounds overnight, but I remain steadfast in my commitment to do everything in my power to ensure that every American is treated equally, with fairness and dignity, under the law.”
The president went on to say “I urge everyone to express their views peacefully, consistent with the rule of law. Violence and destruction of property have no place in our democracy. The White House and Federal authorities have been in contact with Governor Evers’s office to prepare for any outcome in this case, and I have spoken with the governor this afternoon and offered support and any assistance needed to ensure public safety.”
I think bringing such facts into the debate is most unfair.
Easy to see how partial versions/myths/conspiracy theories enter public discourse.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
There have been cases here, I think, where juries have refused to convict, much to the annoyance of the Establishment and the judge. While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
A LAY of Starmer leave date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets at 2.78 (currently) is a good bet. I've topped up my position this morning at 2.69 but 2.78 is still value IMO.
The danger is a May 2023 GE, LP defeat and he resigns. An Autumn 2023 election is no risk because of the time lag for LP to elect a new leader (would go into 2024 and the bet still wins).
Agreed, that's almost free money, failing some unexpected disaster. I know lots of left-wingers, who vary from departure to morose tolerance, but nobody is working to change Starmer. And in truth the strategy of being calm, sensible and policy-light for now may be gradually coming right.
It already is coming right. Starmer is playing his cards very well.
This risk to the bet is a May 2023 election, but a) I don't think this is likely and b) I think it is possible that Starmer stayed on even if he lost.
Telegraph picking up some interesting thoughts from some Dems. Concerns that Biden will not be up to a full throttle re-election campaign by 2024 (the last one he could hide at home thanks to covid).
Plus, Trump team already mapping out a campaign:
"They are concentrating on taking back five key states lost by less than three percentage points in 2020.
Those are the three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus Georgia and Arizona."
Yep, even on a curious glance it's easy to see how Trump wins in 2024 and very hard to see how the Democrats can avoid losing by miles.
Let's start with the obvious: the is a Make America Great Again, Again poll. It's principle job is to persuade Republican primary voters that Trump is the best shot to win the Presidency in 2024. So, it's far from an impartial poll.
We also need to remember that this is a midterm poll. One year into the Trump administration, the Republicans lost Alabama. That's like the Democrats losing California. In 1994, 2002 and in 2010, the Democrats were hammered in the midterms, yet in each case went on to win the Presidency.
Now... this is very different, because the incumbent President is (a) a bit doddery, and (b) highly likely not to be standing again in 2024. There's also the issue that there's no obvious, popular Democrat replacement for Biden. While even if you leave Trump aside, the Republicans have a number of plausible, popular Presidential candidates waiting in the wings.
In my day we used brooms down the inlets to immobilise the turbines on Sea Harrier but I never saw anybody start an engine with one in place.
CSCG21 hasn't been the RN's finest hour. We've had Diamond broken in Taranto for six weeks, Richmond broken in Yokusuka and Kent broken in Guam. They replaced the Strike Group Commander halfway through which is generally an indication that things aren't going terribly well.
For the final indignity we've had to phone a friend and ask the USN SUBSALV team from NAS Rota in Spain to get the remains of the F-35B off the bottom of the Med. The tories scrapped the RN's forward repair vessel (RFA Diligence) and cancelled the salvage tugs before they ever happened. Criminal.
I did wonder who would be salvaging the plane.
In theory the RN has a privatised salvage operation. In reality, it's based on the west coast of Scotland and there is nothing forward deployed so the F-35B bits would be in Zhukovsky by the time they got organised and got to the eastern med.
SUPSALV got an SH-60 off the bottom of the Pacific at nearly 6,000m earlier this year.
At least the XH558 Vulcan display people will feel better about leaving silica gel in two of their engines.
Here was me thinking at the time that this made them look like a amateur operation that shouldn't be flying...
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
What happens when these people take over and control the world's largest nuclear arsenal? Because we all know it's only a matter of time.
Yes, forget your Covids and your Brexits and your Social Cares, even your Climates, this for me is easily the biggest darkest cloud on the horizon right now, the eminently possible seizing of power in America by the batshit crazy Republican Party and the return of their rancid High Priest, Donald Trump, to the White House. As it happens I'm a bit contra consensus on the chances of this, I think it's less likely than it looks on the surface, but if I'm wrong, oh fuckety fuck, there will be blood.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Thanks.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
The scenario is that Peppa gets sent to the political abattoir early next year as red wall MPs conclude they have had enough and red corduroy MPs conclude their dreams of Singapore-on-Thames have been sunk.
Sunak would absolutely go for it. Possibly Truss. How about an outsider nutjob like Dorries?
Hunt is old news. Govey the same. Remember that it isn't the MPs who chose but the members. And we know that the last remaining members are frootloop.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Hush your mouth. He rules. I like his easy confident style of which that is an example.
Or we could make him listen to uninterrupted Alvar Lidell recordings for a month...
Rajan was outstanding in his previous gig on the Media Show. Now they're jostling for positions within the BBC and he's showing his metal, taking the persona of a rottweiler in his interview with Raab. But his interlocutor dealt quite adequately with him.
Indy: The fallout from Boris Johnson’s poor handling of a series of political decisions in recent weeks continues today, with what looks like the beginnings of a briefing war breaking out between the offices of the prime minister and his No 11 Downing Street neighbour, Rishi Sunak. Sources inside the chancellor’s Treasury are said to be increasingly concerned by the PM’s tendency to overpromise and underdeliver and are calling for a shake-up of his Downing Street team, a view shared by several senior Tory MPs who are worried that Johnson’s people are unable to spot political danger in advance and whose incompetence over the Paterson scandal and poorly received rail and social are plans may have terminally damaged party discipline.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
There have been cases here, I think, where juries have refused to convict, much to the annoyance of the Establishment and the judge. While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
And that's the jury system. They can acquit if they chose regardless of evidence and regardless of a judge directing them to convict. A jury of your peers completely independent to follow their judgement and moral compass however crazy those may be! As Biden said, the system works. Which is how we find this Rittenhouse kid posing with Trump having fulfilled every redneck's dream of exercising his second amendment rights to kill people in self-defence having driven to a different state with an assault-rifle he can't legally possess whilst committing vigilantism in someone else's town to defend the rights of cops to kill black people.
As the Donald likes to say, its a beautiful thing.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Hush your mouth. He rules. I like his easy confident style of which that is an example.
He's very good. Just a touch street for early am Today, to my ears, but I'm prepared to put that down to creeping old fogeyness in me.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
What happens when these people take over and control the world's largest nuclear arsenal? Because we all know it's only a matter of time.
Yes, forget your Covids and your Brexits and your Social Cares, even your Climates, this for me is easily the biggest darkest cloud on the horizon right now, the eminently possible seizing of power in America by the batshit crazy Republican Party and the return of their rancid High Priest, Donald Trump, to the White House. As it happens I'm a bit contra consensus on the chances of this, I think it's less likely than it looks on the surface, but if I'm wrong, oh fuckety fuck, there will be blood.
Don't worry. In a whoops-apocalypse scenario I'm far enough away from any primary target to not get nuked and surrounded by the heart of Scotland's farming and energy sectors. So will not only have access to steak but also the gas to cook them with.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Thanks.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
I'd be interested in a Tory insider's opinion - eg @HYUFD - on whether the next leader will need to be able to flash a Leave badge to win a membership vote.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
What happens when these people take over and control the world's largest nuclear arsenal? Because we all know it's only a matter of time.
Yes, forget your Covids and your Brexits and your Social Cares, even your Climates, this for me is easily the biggest darkest cloud on the horizon right now, the eminently possible seizing of power in America by the batshit crazy Republican Party and the return of their rancid High Priest, Donald Trump, to the White House. As it happens I'm a bit contra consensus on the chances of this, I think it's less likely than it looks on the surface, but if I'm wrong, oh fuckety fuck, there will be blood.
Anyone know when my winning German federal election bet is likely to settle (Green+SPD+FDP).
Christ they take ages over there.
Don't know, but HYUFD told us after the exit polls that another grand coalition was "almost certain". So they are probably waiting for him to give the OK before deciding anything.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
There have been cases here, I think, where juries have refused to convict, much to the annoyance of the Establishment and the judge. While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
And that's the jury system. They can acquit if they chose regardless of evidence and regardless of a judge directing them to convict. A jury of your peers completely independent to follow their judgement and moral compass however crazy those may be! As Biden said, the system works. Which is how we find this Rittenhouse kid posing with Trump having fulfilled every redneck's dream of exercising his second amendment rights to kill people in self-defence having driven to a different state with an assault-rifle he can't legally possess whilst committing vigilantism in someone else's town to defend the rights of cops to kill black people.
As the Donald likes to say, its a beautiful thing.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Thanks.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
The scenario is that Peppa gets sent to the political abattoir early next year as red wall MPs conclude they have had enough and red corduroy MPs conclude their dreams of Singapore-on-Thames have been sunk.
Sunak would absolutely go for it. Possibly Truss. How about an outsider nutjob like Dorries?
Hunt is old news. Govey the same. Remember that it isn't the MPs who chose but the members. And we know that the last remaining members are frootloop.
It's going to be Priti based on your last sentence.
I don't know how see gets into the final 2 but the result is so inevitable that she somehow does make it.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Thanks.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
I'd be interested in a Tory insider's opinion - eg @HYUFD - on whether the next leader will need to be able to flash a Leave badge to win a membership vote.
I don't think so. Old news now. Unless a candidate is clearly wanting to rejoin of course.
Of the four leading contenders that I cite, only Sunak voted Leave.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
What happens when these people take over and control the world's largest nuclear arsenal? Because we all know it's only a matter of time.
Yes, forget your Covids and your Brexits and your Social Cares, even your Climates, this for me is easily the biggest darkest cloud on the horizon right now, the eminently possible seizing of power in America by the batshit crazy Republican Party and the return of their rancid High Priest, Donald Trump, to the White House. As it happens I'm a bit contra consensus on the chances of this, I think it's less likely than it looks on the surface, but if I'm wrong, oh fuckety fuck, there will be blood.
He'll be more tempted if Biden runs again.
I'm short the both of them. I think it'll be Not Biden v Not Trump. And that's as far as I've got. I have no backs. No great feeling for who'll emerge on either side.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
What happens when these people take over and control the world's largest nuclear arsenal? Because we all know it's only a matter of time.
Yes, forget your Covids and your Brexits and your Social Cares, even your Climates, this for me is easily the biggest darkest cloud on the horizon right now, the eminently possible seizing of power in America by the batshit crazy Republican Party and the return of their rancid High Priest, Donald Trump, to the White House. As it happens I'm a bit contra consensus on the chances of this, I think it's less likely than it looks on the surface, but if I'm wrong, oh fuckety fuck, there will be blood.
He'll be more tempted if Biden runs again.
I'm short the both of them. I think it'll be Not Biden v Not Trump. And that's as far as I've got. I have no backs. No great feeling for who'll emerge on either side.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
From what I have heard I don't think it is murder but manslaughter of some kind would seem correct. It is at least as bad as causing death by drunk driving imo.
My personal view is that there should be a serious crime of 'taking weapons to a riot'. That would apply to rioters, and to vigilantes.
Obviously, if it's your own home, you wouldn't be guilty (as you wouldn't have taken weapons to a riot).
But if you cross state lines to go to a riot and to carry an AR15 assault rifle then (as with driving a vehicle when impaired) you are dramatically increasing the chance that someone dies.
In a civilized society, the government has the monopoly on the use of force. Here, the police seem to have tacitly chosen to back militias to take on protestors. That's never going to end well.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Haven't you noticed that the same person can speak in different accents and registers depending on circumstance, and it's not necessarily consciously done? I kindly suggest you get over it and continue to enjoy the things that are being said rather than worry about how they are being said.
Everybody does it - generally unconsciously - linguistically its called "code switching" and its done from childhood - children speak differently to their mates and to their teachers, and it carries on from there.
While I too found Rajan's delivery jarring at first I'm more interested in what's being asked rather than how it's being asked - and he's a good interviewer.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
From what I have heard I don't think it is murder but manslaughter of some kind would seem correct. It is at least as bad as causing death by drunk driving imo.
My personal view is that there should be a serious crime of 'taking weapons to a riot'. That would apply to rioters, and to vigilantes.
Obviously, if it's your own home, you wouldn't be guilty (as you wouldn't have taken weapons to a riot).
But if you cross state lines to go to a riot and to carry an AR15 assault rifle then (as with driving a vehicle when impaired) you are dramatically increasing the chance that someone dies.
In a civilized society, the government has the monopoly on the use of force. Here, the police seem to have tacitly chosen to back militias to take on protestors. That's never going to end well.
But that effectively nullifies the Second Amendment; you just define pretty much everything as a riot.
I found the article very interesting but there is a problem with it. We are regularly told the Boris we see is an act, reinforced by the Jeremy Vine story of his identical performance prior to after dinner speeches.
Both stories of Boris can't be true. It's either a genuine Boris or an act. It can't be both. Everyone is guessing.
Really don't see the problem. Boris is his act. Which, considering it has served him so well for so long, is hardly surprising. As Finkelstein so cleverly points out it is those who expect anything different for good or ill that are going to be disappointed.
There isn't a problem. It is just the narrative in the past was that what you see is NOT Boris but an act he performs. The Jeremy Vine story reinforced that perception. That is not what Daniel Finkelstein was saying. It can't be both.
My comment is not a comment on Boris at all, but a comment on us as observers. As a group we seem to have moved our opinion of him from a person performing (to achieve a perception) to this being the actual person.
That difference is important. The former implies a person in control manipulating the media and the voters (as all politicians try and do) with his humour and personality, but with an intelligence behind it in control of events. The latter not so.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
There have been cases here, I think, where juries have refused to convict, much to the annoyance of the Establishment and the judge. While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
And that's the jury system. They can acquit if they chose regardless of evidence and regardless of a judge directing them to convict. A jury of your peers completely independent to follow their judgement and moral compass however crazy those may be! As Biden said, the system works. Which is how we find this Rittenhouse kid posing with Trump having fulfilled every redneck's dream of exercising his second amendment rights to kill people in self-defence having driven to a different state with an assault-rifle he can't legally possess whilst committing vigilantism in someone else's town to defend the rights of cops to kill black people.
As the Donald likes to say, its a beautiful thing.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
I know the Conservative party doesn't, but do I see a split on the horizon? After all, Labour nearly did (again) after Corbyn's election.
QTWTAIN.
Can't see a split. But I do see some high-profile defections nearer the election, as well as some switching press support - The Times for a start, and probably The Economist. How many divisions do they have? Not many, but it will contribute to a "Time for the change" mood.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Hush your mouth. He rules. I like his easy confident style of which that is an example.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Haven't you noticed that the same person can speak in different accents and registers depending on circumstance, and it's not necessarily consciously done? I kindly suggest you get over it and continue to enjoy the things that are being said rather than worry about how they are being said.
Everybody does it - generally unconsciously - linguistically its called "code switching" and its done from childhood - children speak differently to their mates and to their teachers, and it carries on from there.
While I too found Rajan's delivery jarring at first I'm more interested in what's being asked rather than how it's being asked - and he's a good interviewer.
An LoL for his Raab interview this morning, opening by asking Raab what went through his mind when he saw Bozo fluffing his speech - putting him immediately on the spot. Raab responds by listing a whole load of other stuff mostly a litany of claimed government achievements; when he pauses for breath Rajan comes in with "wow, all those things went through your mind when you saw the PM speaking?" thus highlighting the vacuity of the answer without having to challenge it directly. So Raab then had no choice but to come back to the OQ.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
There have been cases here, I think, where juries have refused to convict, much to the annoyance of the Establishment and the judge. While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
Famously the Jury refused to convict Clive Ponting over the Belgrano leaks, and more recently one refused to convict Extinction Rebellion vandals:
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
What should have happened is law enforcement by well trained and disciplined police authorities.
Not random teenage vigilantes turning up from out of state with automatic weapons
Are you seriously suggesting that the feds should have rounded up the BLM protesters and sent them all to jail?
The failings of law enforcement seems to have been in mostly democrat states; where effective policing of the riots was curbed by sympathetic left wing politicians.
Setting bail bonds at a low value for a timely example.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
Of those currently in the frame (who are currently MPs), Hunt is worth watching as the only candidate who remotely tickles the one nation, moderate, Clarkeite aspect of Tory history and exudes a degree of competence.
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Thanks.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
The scenario is that Peppa gets sent to the political abattoir early next year as red wall MPs conclude they have had enough and red corduroy MPs conclude their dreams of Singapore-on-Thames have been sunk.
Sunak would absolutely go for it. Possibly Truss. How about an outsider nutjob like Dorries?
Hunt is old news. Govey the same. Remember that it isn't the MPs who chose but the members. And we know that the last remaining members are frootloop.
It's going to be Priti based on your last sentence.
I don't know how see gets into the final 2 but the result is so inevitable that she somehow does make it.
I would have added her to the list a year ago. Not sure she would make it now - the egregious failure over the border marks her card somewhat.
End Times preacher Sharon Gilbert says that an alien imitated her husband, and then it tried to have sex with her, and then it claimed to be Xerxes, and then Jesus got involved, and then the alien turned out to be a reptile with a posse of gargoyles.
What happens when these people take over and control the world's largest nuclear arsenal? Because we all know it's only a matter of time.
Yes, forget your Covids and your Brexits and your Social Cares, even your Climates, this for me is easily the biggest darkest cloud on the horizon right now, the eminently possible seizing of power in America by the batshit crazy Republican Party and the return of their rancid High Priest, Donald Trump, to the White House. As it happens I'm a bit contra consensus on the chances of this, I think it's less likely than it looks on the surface, but if I'm wrong, oh fuckety fuck, there will be blood.
He'll be more tempted if Biden runs again.
Agree. Cohen reckons he won't run because he is afraid of losing again, but if it is Biden the temptation might be too much.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
From what I have heard I don't think it is murder but manslaughter of some kind would seem correct. It is at least as bad as causing death by drunk driving imo.
My personal view is that there should be a serious crime of 'taking weapons to a riot'. That would apply to rioters, and to vigilantes.
Obviously, if it's your own home, you wouldn't be guilty (as you wouldn't have taken weapons to a riot).
But if you cross state lines to go to a riot and to carry an AR15 assault rifle then (as with driving a vehicle when impaired) you are dramatically increasing the chance that someone dies.
In a civilized society, the government has the monopoly on the use of force. Here, the police seem to have tacitly chosen to back militias to take on protestors. That's never going to end well.
But that effectively nullifies the Second Amendment; you just define pretty much everything as a riot.
why do you hate Freedom, boy?
Just declare 2022 the year of The Purge and have done with it. If you don't want to participate feel free to depart before New Year's Eve. From midnight in Times Square its free reign until the survivors found Gilead.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
I know the Conservative party doesn't, but do I see a split on the horizon? After all, Labour nearly did (again) after Corbyn's election.
QTWTAIN.
Can't see a split. But I do see some high-profile defections nearer the election, as well as some switching press support - The Times for a start, and probably The Economist. How many divisions do they have? Not many, but it will contribute to a "Time for the change" mood.
To where will the defectors defect? Ind Con and seeking re-election? Lab? LD? Or Ind Con and not seeking re-election?
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
From what I have heard I don't think it is murder but manslaughter of some kind would seem correct. It is at least as bad as causing death by drunk driving imo.
My personal view is that there should be a serious crime of 'taking weapons to a riot'. That would apply to rioters, and to vigilantes.
Obviously, if it's your own home, you wouldn't be guilty (as you wouldn't have taken weapons to a riot).
But if you cross state lines to go to a riot and to carry an AR15 assault rifle then (as with driving a vehicle when impaired) you are dramatically increasing the chance that someone dies.
In a civilized society, the government has the monopoly on the use of force. Here, the police seem to have tacitly chosen to back militias to take on protestors. That's never going to end well.
But that effectively nullifies the Second Amendment; you just define pretty much everything as a riot.
why do you hate Freedom, boy?
Just declare 2022 the year of The Purge and have done with it. If you don't want to participate feel free to depart before New Year's Eve. From midnight in Times Square its free reign until the survivors found Gilead.
I know Amol Rajan has big fans here, and I'm sure they loved hearing him tear into Raab earlier, but I just can't stand hearing his lazy speaking style on Radio 4.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
Hush your mouth. He rules. I like his easy confident style of which that is an example.
I heard him on Today for the first time this morning, I thought he was excellent. I don't really care how people talk as long as they are intelligible, if anything it's refreshing to have a wider range of accents on the radio than the usual deathly dull RP.
But if you cross state lines to go to a riot and to carry an AR15 assault rifle then (as with driving a vehicle when impaired) you are dramatically increasing the chance that someone dies.
This retarded little dickhead had a S&W M&P Sport 15 not an 'AR15 assault rifle'. It was semi-auto only and had no selective fire feature.
Unusually for me, I'm with the HYUFD and Isam gang who think talk of Boris's demise is premature (although I differ in that I want rid of him). It's far too early to tell whether this is mid-term blues or something more seismic.
I strongly suspect that Tory MPs will hold their fire unless/until there is a reasonably prolonged period in which the Tories have a significant deficit in the opinion polls. I'm also more dubious than many that, if he does have to go, his replacement will fare any better.
I can’t see anyone doing better than Johnson. At least no one shorter than 100/1. Possibly Liz Truss, but it’d be a huge gamble.
I think if BJ is forced out the Tories will not be in government after the next GE. But if he stays, and does not significantly up his game, he will rip his party apart and they’ll be out of power for a decade.
So the best solution for people wishing the Tories well (not me I hasten to add) is:
1st preference: help BJ to recover his mojo. The man is clearly in private pain of some kind: help him deal with it and he will probably become an electoral asset again. Not guaranteed, but it’s their best chance for the next GE. (This requires good teamwork, unfortunately not a characteristic defining the current iteration of the Tory Party.)
2nd preference: force BJ out and install a reasonably non-toxic, safe-pair-of-hands replacement. Truss? Hunt? Sunak? Javid? Problem with this is that Starmer will increase in stature.
3rd preference: keep BJ in office despite no improvement, or woe of woes even a further decline. He’s dire, but enough people either don’t care or don’t notice to stop a Labour landslide.
4th preference: go all “One Nation”. Rory Stewart is 120/1.
5th and worst option: force BJ out and install another unstable, toxic, marmite character. Gove? Patel? Raab? Pure suicide, but it’d have some troops cheering to the rafters.
Obviously, I’m cheering on Michael Gove.
Betting Post:
I agree that the four you mention Truss, Hunt, Sunak, and Javid have the best chance for next leader (and next PM if Johnson is replaced before the GE).
I've taken a look at current odds for Next Leader and Next PM.
I have discounted Gove purely because I don't see it.
First odds are best odds from trad bookies and second figure is best odds between BF and Smarkets.
Next Leader:
Sunak 5/2 3.8
Truss 7/1 7.0
Hunt 10/1 12.5
Javid 20/1 24
Next PM:
Sunak 11/4 3.85
Truss 12/1 8.6
Hunt 14/1 14.5
Javid 25/1 38
First observation is the 12/1 Truss for Next PM available with Paddy Power is a stand-out bet and is available (I just checked). In fact it could be combined with a LAY on the spreads for an Arb.
The CP leadership contest rules mean that two candidates have to get through the PMs and then it is a member vote. I am fairly certain that Sunak would get past the MPs but I cannot come to a view on the other candidates.
What level of MP support do Truss/Hunt/Sunak have?
I think Sunak wins unless - possibly - the second candidate is Truss.
At the moment it doesn't look like any of them would do better against Starmer than Boris, so I think Boris will stay through to the next general election. If he wins then fresh blood might come into the Cabinet who would come into play, if he loses then the party would likely shift right in opposition.
Sunak may find he ends up like David Miliband in the last years of the Brown government, strong favourite for next leader in power but Brown never went and in opposition he lost it to someone better able to play to what the party membership wanted to hear
I thought you'd say that - I should have framed my question to you as a hypothetical: If Johnson were to resign within six months, which two candidates would likely proceed to the member vote? I think Sunak and one other, but can't form a view on who the other would be.
I know the Conservative party doesn't, but do I see a split on the horizon? After all, Labour nearly did (again) after Corbyn's election.
QTWTAIN.
Can't see a split. But I do see some high-profile defections nearer the election, as well as some switching press support - The Times for a start, and probably The Economist. How many divisions do they have? Not many, but it will contribute to a "Time for the change" mood.
To where will the defectors defect? Ind Con and seeking re-election? Lab? LD? Or Ind Con and not seeking re-election?
The thought of defections, now, is really, really, really silly.
I found the article very interesting but there is a problem with it. We are regularly told the Boris we see is an act, reinforced by the Jeremy Vine story of his identical performance prior to after dinner speeches.
Both stories of Boris can't be true. It's either a genuine Boris or an act. It can't be both. Everyone is guessing.
Really don't see the problem. Boris is his act. Which, considering it has served him so well for so long, is hardly surprising. As Finkelstein so cleverly points out it is those who expect anything different for good or ill that are going to be disappointed.
There isn't a problem. It is just the narrative in the past was that what you see is NOT Boris but an act he performs. The Jeremy Vine story reinforced that perception. That is not what Daniel Finkelstein was saying. It can't be both.
My comment is not a comment on Boris at all, but a comment on us as observers. As a group we seem to have moved our opinion of him from a person performing (to achieve a perception) to this being the actual person.
That difference is important. The former implies a person in control manipulating the media and the voters (as all politicians try and do) with his humour and personality, but with an intelligence behind it in control of events. The latter not so.
I wish to remove the 'in control of events' part of my post. That really was going just too far and made the whole post just really silly.
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
‘Hey mom, I’m off on a road trip to defend myself. Yeah, yeah, I’ll pick up an AR-15 on the way.’
Trump endorsing an armed vigilante shows what a dark place America is heading into.
I have not followed this case in much detail. However, it is clear that there were protests going on in 2020 in America where people were turning up with guns and attacking private property, in violation of all sorts of laws. The left were, and remain, supportive of these protests; and the current president is implicitly supporting these protests with his recent statements. Whilst the attempted coup by Trump supporters was disgraceful, the democrats are really just as bad; but as we know, educated people have an entrenched bias towards the "progressive" left which means that they don't see the problem correctly.
Ah yes, if there are sins on both sides that MUST mean all sins are equal, of course.
Another phenomenon is that people look at the 'coup' and conclude that the republican party are now beyond the pale - in to Nazi territory. But this coup came in the wake of other parts of the government bowing down to a mob and suspending essential state functions. As the incumbent, Biden appears to guard the integrity of the system; but also continues to make pretty astounding statements about the finding of juries.
Biden? The same Biden who said “I stand by what the jury has concluded.” and “The jury system works. We have to abide by it.”
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
There have been cases here, I think, where juries have refused to convict, much to the annoyance of the Establishment and the judge. While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
And that's the jury system. They can acquit if they chose regardless of evidence and regardless of a judge directing them to convict. A jury of your peers completely independent to follow their judgement and moral compass however crazy those may be! As Biden said, the system works. Which is how we find this Rittenhouse kid posing with Trump having fulfilled every redneck's dream of exercising his second amendment rights to kill people in self-defence having driven to a different state with an assault-rifle he can't legally possess whilst committing vigilantism in someone else's town to defend the rights of cops to kill black people.
As the Donald likes to say, its a beautiful thing.
On topic, having read a few articles and exchanged messages with a few people I think Sunak is more likely to leave the cabinet first than Boris Johnson is to leave Number 10.
Some have started to call the Chancellor the 'midget submarine'.
The Chancellor is getting it this week, for having let the Free Ports initiative get watered down by the Treasury civil servants, despite having authored a report on their advantage five years ago.
“The idea of reviving freeports had come from then-international trade secretary Liz Truss. She invited me and others to join a working group to push it forward. When I got there, I was pleased to see Rishi Sunak, who had recently published a think tank report extolling the virtues of freeports. I was less pleased to see ranks of Treasury civil servants, almost outnumbering those of us round the table. “They insisted on being here,” a trade official told me. This was now a joint Trade-Treasury project.
“I had the sinking feeling that — despite the support of the Prime Minister, the Trade Secretary, and the man who would become Chancellor — the freeports revival was already in its last throes. And so it proved. Oxbridge professors on the panel said freeports would only relocate jobs from one part of the UK to another. (Oxbridge economics says very little about entrepreneurship. It regards firms as a "given" rather than asking how and why new ones are generated. Hence the idea that jobs can only be moved around, not created.)
“The Treasury officials, meanwhile, complained of the complexity of changing the customs and VAT rules, hinting of fraud and tax avoidance. The number of freeports would be limited to 10 and politics, not economics, would decide where they were located. And they would have to focus on "high-tech" jobs (the politicians’ mantra) rather than what the market might produce. None of the people I suggested, who actually created or ran successful freeports around the world, were ever contacted. After one meeting, the freeports "working group" quietly expired.
“Recently there have been reports that ministers and businesses have said that Treasury is killing freeports with a lack of ambition on tax cuts and planning relaxation. This comes as the first freeport started operating in Teesside on Friday.”
Who could have predicted? Master Rittenhouse's stated intention of living a quiet life away from the limelight going well.
What did the left expect, when they tried to make someone defending himself into a racist figure of hate?
The only way America comes back together, is if people start loving each other again, and stop trying to make everything hyper-partisan, black or white (often literally) issue.
Are you being serious? It's not always easy to tell these days. Just in case you are do you see nothing wrong with an 18 year old boy getting hold of a machine gun and driving 80 miles to a town and shooting people with it?
Err, how’s about because that’s not actually what happened, as was made clear in the courtroom last week.
Oh dear, so either a FOD ingestion, a pitot cover left in place, or a combination of both. That’s terribly embarrassing, $250m for a new plane, and millions more on the ongoing operation to salvage the wreck from the sea bed 1,000m down, to stop the Russians getting to it.
The Prime Minister shared a table with two property tycoons at a Tory fundraiser hours before it was announced thousands of civil servants were moving to offices the pair developed, it can be revealed.
Boris Johnson sat with David and Simon Reuben at the party’s lavish winter ball on Monday evening. The family of the Mumbai-born brothers – who are worth £21.5billion – have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives.
Ministers yesterday unveiled plans for 9,000 staff at HM Revenue and Customs to be transferred to a development they are building in Newcastle.
So what is wrong with that? You are about to announce a large scale development of that kind bringing thousands of well paid jobs to the north and you meet the people you are negotiating with. If it was announced hours later the deal was done.
I am getting seriously bored with all this "sleeze" nonsense built around the fact that the government doesn't live in an ivory tower with virginal purity but in the real world. There is sleeze, as Owen Paterson proved all too well, but this daft notion that governments and ministers are not allowed to speak to anybody is tiresome.
I reckon it's the "have given hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservatives" bit. Either limit political donations, or have a register of donors who are not allowed to benefit from public works. Otherwise it is simply legalised bribery.
Yes, the government should be able to get out of the ivory tower and get it on with anybody. But not if they're being paid to spread their legs.
Comments
I've travelled around 29 states and the abiding impression I got was that it was a zoo. Completely different kinds of people all enclosed into a single exhibit. Now that one side are convinced the other side want to take their food away and the other side think the first lot want to eat them it has descended into chaos.
As I posted upthread, it looks for all the world to me that Boris is displaying traits which seem to be coherent and characteristic of various states. Someone asked him "are you ok" which is perhaps to misunderstand those symptoms.
The failings of law enforcement seems to have been in mostly democrat states; where effective policing of the riots was curbed by sympathetic left wing politicians.
See:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/COVID-19-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab/dp/2940631123
https://www.weforum.org/focus/the-great-reset
(via CNBC)
All we need is a really deadly virus and a really effective vaccine for it, and the intelligence of the species will probably double in one generation.
Today while introducing a segment about youth crime he started with the time
Twenny to nine
Then the years covered
During twenny twenny, twenny twenny one
Then he immediately found his 't' when he wanted to be serious
TwenTy six young people have been stabbed (or something, I got so distracted by his sudden ability to speak properly I lost track)
It makes me think that his lazy speaking is deliberate and performative. He wants to dumb down the Today programme.
I keep expecting him to say "innit blud".
The party survives as the main party of government by frequently changing the mode of operation while keeping the name and rhetoric.
With extremes in the ascendant he faces both MP and membership obstacles, but once 'time for a change' is the slogan within the party, Hunt is the person who could do it, and crucially, it is hard to look beyond him for that sort of candidate.
Just as last time for other reasons it was impossible to look beyond Boris who was essential for the moment but even more flawed than people thought.
The great Rory (not an MP anyway) is too interesting and eccentric - in all the good ways - to be the leader.
Talking in a sauna 😱
SUPSALV got an SH-60 off the bottom of the Pacific at nearly 6,000m earlier this year.
The kid is legally innocent of his proven vigilante murders. Pointing out that this is bonkers isn't seeking to undermine a jury system which preserves at its heart the jury's absolute right to acquit if it sees fit for any reason it likes and that you are innocent until proven guilty even if you are in fact guilty.
Its imperfect but nobody is calling for its replacement with a "people's court" type mob trial of the kind wanted by the insurrectionists seeking out Vice President Pence that day.
It is pretty basic policing in democratic societies.
So long as we don't scatter too many them around at once.
"After his speech, a reporter asked the prime minister if he was OK. This was a witty question, but also missed the point. This was him being OK. Johnson didn’t lose his place, imitate a motor car and ramble on about Peppa Pig because something was wrong with him. He did it because extended metaphor, subversion of the form, shambolic messiness and disorganisation are how he gives every speech — how he has given every speech for 40 years. Often it works brilliantly for him. This time it was catastrophic and disrespectful to his audience."
*Trendoid from 'Wee Trendoid' learnt in Aberdeen
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2021-09-20..latest&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=ITA~DEU~GBR~FRA~BEL~NLD~ESP~PRT~DNK~POL~IRL~AUT~NOR~SWE
France is taking a novel approach to reduce their case numbers on that site by reporting -57,853.
But if it's Sunak v Hunt in a membership vote, Sunak wins doesn't he?
Easy to see how partial versions/myths/conspiracy theories enter public discourse.
While the Establishment wasn't bothered, I think the judge in Ken Dodd's tax case was quite surprised.
This risk to the bet is a May 2023 election, but a) I don't think this is likely and b) I think it is possible that Starmer stayed on even if he lost.
We also need to remember that this is a midterm poll. One year into the Trump administration, the Republicans lost Alabama. That's like the Democrats losing California. In 1994, 2002 and in 2010, the Democrats were hammered in the midterms, yet in each case went on to win the Presidency.
Now... this is very different, because the incumbent President is (a) a bit doddery, and (b) highly likely not to be standing again in 2024. There's also the issue that there's no obvious, popular Democrat replacement for Biden. While even if you leave Trump aside, the Republicans have a number of plausible, popular Presidential candidates waiting in the wings.
TL;DR, who knows?
Here was me thinking at the time that this made them look like a amateur operation that shouldn't be flying...
[Obviously they aren't flying now]
Christ they take ages over there.
Sunak would absolutely go for it. Possibly Truss. How about an outsider nutjob like Dorries?
Hunt is old news. Govey the same. Remember that it isn't the MPs who chose but the members. And we know that the last remaining members are frootloop.
As the Donald likes to say, its a beautiful thing.
Here France is saying +30,454 yesterday
https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-chiffres-cles-et-evolution-de-la-covid-19-en-france-et-dans-le-monde
no idea where ourworldindata is getting -57k from
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59355018
I don't know how see gets into the final 2 but the result is so inevitable that she somehow does make it.
Of the four leading contenders that I cite, only Sunak voted Leave.
Obviously, if it's your own home, you wouldn't be guilty (as you wouldn't have taken weapons to a riot).
But if you cross state lines to go to a riot and to carry an AR15 assault rifle then (as with driving a vehicle when impaired) you are dramatically increasing the chance that someone dies.
In a civilized society, the government has the monopoly on the use of force. Here, the police seem to have tacitly chosen to back militias to take on protestors. That's never going to end well.
While I too found Rajan's delivery jarring at first I'm more interested in what's being asked rather than how it's being asked - and he's a good interviewer.
why do you hate Freedom, boy?
No mob, no need for police to protect property and no problem if there aren't a load of police around.
My comment is not a comment on Boris at all, but a comment on us as observers. As a group we seem to have moved our opinion of him from a person performing (to achieve a perception) to this being the actual person.
That difference is important. The former implies a person in control manipulating the media and the voters (as all politicians try and do) with his humour and personality, but with an intelligence behind it in control of events. The latter not so.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56853979
He could quite conceivably have been convicted of reckless endangerment.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/20/freeports-risk-killed-officials-treasury/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/23/freeports-embody-low-tax-brexit-dream-treasury-cant-stand/
“The idea of reviving freeports had come from then-international trade secretary Liz Truss. She invited me and others to join a working group to push it forward. When I got there, I was pleased to see Rishi Sunak, who had recently published a think tank report extolling the virtues of freeports. I was less pleased to see ranks of Treasury civil servants, almost outnumbering those of us round the table. “They insisted on being here,” a trade official told me. This was now a joint Trade-Treasury project.
“I had the sinking feeling that — despite the support of the Prime Minister, the Trade Secretary, and the man who would become Chancellor — the freeports revival was already in its last throes. And so it proved. Oxbridge professors on the panel said freeports would only relocate jobs from one part of the UK to another. (Oxbridge economics says very little about entrepreneurship. It regards firms as a "given" rather than asking how and why new ones are generated. Hence the idea that jobs can only be moved around, not created.)
“The Treasury officials, meanwhile, complained of the complexity of changing the customs and VAT rules, hinting of fraud and tax avoidance. The number of freeports would be limited to 10 and politics, not economics, would decide where they were located. And they would have to focus on "high-tech" jobs (the politicians’ mantra) rather than what the market might produce. None of the people I suggested, who actually created or ran successful freeports around the world, were ever contacted. After one meeting, the freeports "working group" quietly expired.
“Recently there have been reports that ministers and businesses have said that Treasury is killing freeports with a lack of ambition on tax cuts and planning relaxation. This comes as the first freeport started operating in Teesside on Friday.”
Yes, the government should be able to get out of the ivory tower and get it on with anybody. But not if they're being paid to spread their legs.