Johnson’s Nightmare November continues with another bad poll – politicalbetting.com

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

I agree obviously on your main point.

Not on trade, though.

It’s pretty obvious why goods trade gets harder and harder the further you are away. So making it harder to trade locally - which is what Brexit does - is just self-defeating.

Anyway, we’ll never agree on that until the numbers come in, perhaps, and maybe not even then.

That doesn't make sense, the gravity models rate a US trade deal really well, it's not to do with geographic location but what already exists. You don't understand it, I think. Gravity models work by looking at clusters of size and economic development, where two large clusters exist (say the UK and US or the UK and EU) it will rate the potential very highly, where there are smaller clusters (say the UK and Morocco which is closer than the US) it will rate the potential very poorly.

That's the basis of how the treasury uses the gravity model and generally the basis of how they work. It's fundamentally flawed and has very, very poor real world predictive value. Yet here we are still governed by them.

tlg86 said:

I was once told that Sheffield to St Pancras has never been brought below two hours (and it could be quicker now) because there is an employer in Sheffield who has in their T&S policy that train journeys of over two hours can be done first class.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

The truth is, the cancelled program was utterly essential to any attempt to address the appalling underperformance of cities outside London.

This really is two countries - London and the SE, possibly *the* global capital for services - and the rest (65% of the bloody population!) which is now falling behind parts of the old Warsaw Pact in terms of productivity and thereby income levels.

My great hope for Johnson was that he is almost unique in the Tory Party in his affection for large scale infrastructure projects.

But even he couldn’t punch through the disastrous, self-defeating penny-wise mania of the gradgrinds in Treasury.

Forget politics, this is a very sad day for this country.

It's the same awful gravity models you hold so dear that is driving this. The econometricians and their "science" of economics say putting money into these places will yield no multiplier so the treasury has shit canned it.

One day, maybe soon, you'll agree with me that economics is full of bullshit artists who know fuck all about fuck all and the country would be a better place if we stuck them all on a boat and floated it out into the Atlantic.

I’m not an economist, but—-

It’s not the economics profession per se, in fact it’s a kind of perverted accounting that controls Treasury thinking.

As you kind of say, “if it’s not there, don’t build it” seems to be the mantra.

It makes sense if you have no theory whatsoever of how economic growth happens.

It absolutely is the whole bloody profession. They're all useless and like the pretence of being scientists when they aren't. One of my favourite things to do is goad them about how their Nobel prize is a facsimile of the real thing. They really don't like that one and they tend to to off in a huff.

People are always saying that economists are a waste of money. Yet economists continue to be employed, often at quite good salaries. The theory of revealed preference tells me that at least some people therefore don't think economists are a waste of money.

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

It's a little worse than that, actually: a few years ago, it was decided to move the Birmingham International to Crewe link from HS2 phase 2 to a phase 2a - essentially decoupling it from the main phase 2. Construction is expected to start on 2a in 2024.

Why is this important? The Crewe link allows trains on the classic network to access HS2 phase 1 to London much further north. It also makes it slightly easier to cancel the rest of the western leg as well...

Oh I know, hence my "by 2042 following multiple rounds of reauthorisation" comment.

HS2 is dead. They'll manage the connection to the WCML and then pull the rest. Remember that a few bits of upgrade of existing lines is as good - better even - as a new high speed line.

Whats more, with HS2 dead, the rest of the network is similarly screwed. Fewer trains than now, less freight, more trucks. Again again for some posters, if you run trains at a higher speed on existing lines you reduce capacity which means you reduce the number of trains you can run.

Hurrah!

I'd utterly disagree that HS2 is dead - phase 1 is under construction at the moment, and I cannot see that being cancelled. Phase 2 has been severely trimmed - negatively IMO - and the rest of it has to be felt endangered. But HS2 is not dead.

I've still not had time to read the document: one thing that could mollify some people is for full electrification of the MML to occur from Kettering/Wellingborough to Sheffield. I assume they're not doing that?

Page 10:

We will complete the electrification of the Midland Main Line, allowing high speed journeys from London to Chesterfield and Sheffield in the same times to those originally proposed by HS2, decarbonising the railway, and bringing a long overdue improvement to passenger services.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1034360/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands.pdf

Thanks. Interestingly, the plan is to continue electrification to Sheffield from Derby (p. 82). I'd have expected an electrified / upgraded Trent Valley route to offer better times to Sheffield.

You don't mean Trent Valley (that's the WCML) - I guess you mean the Erewash line from Toton to Clay Cross Junction? Yeah, I don't know why every Sheffield to London train needs to through Derby and they need to electrify the Erewash line so that they have a diversionary route.

Gardenwalker said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

It requires obstinacy and attention to detail.

Cummings was an absolute shit, but you see why he wanted control of the Treasury spads.

Treasury should be broken up; it’s a failed organisation, but it has the country in a death-grip.

Gardenwalker said:

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

Extrapolating the future from the present was the fundamental philosophical reason I switched out of economics.
People don't behave in an immutable way. Nor rationally. At all. I understand there have been big advances in behavioural economics since, but the basically deterministic mindset seems to remain.

This is not about homo economicus though.

This is Treasury simply saying, we don’t care how economic growth happens, it’s nowt to do with us.

Imagine if Singapore had thought the same way in 1960.

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

I agree obviously on your main point.

Not on trade, though.

It’s pretty obvious why goods trade gets harder and harder the further you are away. So making it harder to trade locally - which is what Brexit does - is just self-defeating.

Anyway, we’ll never agree on that until the numbers come in, perhaps, and maybe not even then.

That doesn't make sense, the gravity models rate a US trade deal really well, it's not to do with geographic location but what already exists. You don't understand it, I think. Gravity models work by looking at clusters of size and economic development, where two large clusters exist (say the UK and US or the UK and EU) it will rate the potential very highly, where there are smaller clusters (say the UK and Morocco which is closer than the US) it will rate the potential very poorly.

That's the basis of how the treasury uses the gravity model and generally the basis of how they work. It's fundamentally flawed and has very, very poor real world predictive value. Yet here we are still governed by them.

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

LostPassword said:

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life.

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Speaking as an occasional friend of @BorisJohnson, also as a fellow journalist: in 45 years of civil service and then public reporting, the only worse prime minister I have seen is Silvio Berlusconi.
https://twitter.com/JohnGPeet/status/1461081436379926532

A more entertaining introduction than "Speaking an ardent pro-EU zealot, who's written as a journalist and for decades against Brexit ..."

Do you not get it Philip. Boris got Brexit over the line. Your Brexit. That most sacred of political achievements. All down to Boris.

And you know what? He was a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else then and he is a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else now.

And he is the guy that is your hero. Boris supported Brexit; he is Brexit. And like everything else he supports it therefore merits a huge scepticism as to its value.

No you don't get it. Boris may be a tosser not giving a damn, but he's our tosser not giving a damn.

If we want a different tosser who will give a damn, then we can vote for one. That's Brexit.

We always could.

But we couldn't vote out Von Der Leyen.

We did vote her out. We literally just voted to leave the EU.

LostPassword said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

The truth is, the cancelled program was utterly essential to any attempt to address the appalling underperformance of cities outside London.

This really is two countries - London and the SE, possibly *the* global capital for services - and the rest (65% of the bloody population!) which is now falling behind parts of the old Warsaw Pact in terms of productivity and thereby income levels.

My great hope for Johnson was that he is almost unique in the Tory Party in his affection for large scale infrastructure projects.

But even he couldn’t punch through the disastrous, self-defeating penny-wise mania of the gradgrinds in Treasury.

Forget politics, this is a very sad day for this country.

It's the same awful gravity models you hold so dear that is driving this. The econometricians and their "science" of economics say putting money into these places will yield no multiplier so the treasury has shit canned it.

One day, maybe soon, you'll agree with me that economics is full of bullshit artists who know fuck all about fuck all and the country would be a better place if we stuck them all on a boat and floated it out into the Atlantic.

I’m not an economist, but—-

It’s not the economics profession per se, in fact it’s a kind of perverted accounting that controls Treasury thinking.

As you kind of say, “if it’s not there, don’t build it” seems to be the mantra.

It makes sense if you have no theory whatsoever of how economic growth happens.

It absolutely is the whole bloody profession. They're all useless and like the pretence of being scientists when they aren't. One of my favourite things to do is goad them about how their Nobel prize is a facsimile of the real thing. They really don't like that one and they tend to to off in a huff.

People are always saying that economists are a waste of money. Yet economists continue to be employed, often at quite good salaries. The theory of revealed preference tells me that at least some people therefore don't think economists are a waste of money.

But what is the value they provide.

The claim is that they scientifically analyse the economy, enabling predictions of the effects of various interventions to be made, so that we can choose the optimal course of action.

Or it could just be that they provide the illusion of that so as to justify decisions made to benefit one interest group over another in a way that is harder to challenge.

I can easily see many people being prepared to pay for the latter.

MaxPB said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

I agree obviously on your main point.

Not on trade, though.

It’s pretty obvious why goods trade gets harder and harder the further you are away. So making it harder to trade locally - which is what Brexit does - is just self-defeating.

Anyway, we’ll never agree on that until the numbers come in, perhaps, and maybe not even then.

That doesn't make sense, the gravity models rate a US trade deal really well, it's not to do with geographic location but what already exists. You don't understand it, I think. Gravity models work by looking at clusters of size and economic development, where two large clusters exist (say the UK and US or the UK and EU) it will rate the potential very highly, where there are smaller clusters (say the UK and Morocco which is closer than the US) it will rate the potential very poorly.

That's the basis of how the treasury uses the gravity model and generally the basis of how they work. It's fundamentally flawed and has very, very poor real world predictive value. Yet here we are still governed by them.

Additionally, the gravity model doesn't have the concept of the 10x, it simply can't handle the idea of $1bn turning into $10bn and completely discounts the possibility of that happening. Yet we live in an era of the 10x, an automation company where I was invited to the Series A just did 30x between that Series A and the Series E, in the world of gravity modelling this is impossible.

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

eek said:

LostPassword said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Well to Glasgow Central - HS2E is required to speed up travel to Edinburgh and everywhere else in Scotland.

Surely with HS2 to Crewe, Edinburgh-Euston will become a lot quicker than Edinburgh-King's Cross?

London to Edinburgh ECML is 4 hours 29 fastest.

Fastest train Crewe to Edinburgh is 3 hours 13.

London Crewe is an hour so you save 16 minutes - provided there are no delays on the route and you don't need to wait 17 minutes (or more likely 45) for a connection.

Pre-pandemic there were regularly 4h20m trains on the ECML from Edinburgh to London. Sometimes I didn't even get refunds for them being late. And the new Azuma timetable was supposed to speed some of them up a bit.

I was and am surprised by the London Edinburgh time as I thought 4 hours was easily possible - 2hrs 30 to Newcastle and 1 hour 30 Newcastle to Edinburgh but I only quoted what I saw.

If (and as shown above) you are correct and the fastest journey time to Edinburgh is 4 hours than it's possible that the HS2 route is 13 minutes slower rather than 16 minutes (assuming no connections) faster.

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.

tlg86 said:

eek said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I hope Boris Johnson suffers erectile dysfunction for the rest of his very long life and that not even viagra can fix his issue.

That's the only fitting punishment for Boris Johnson and his betrayal of the North.

The North Midlands (i.e. Sheffield) will still benefit, however.

How? Boris and co have just cut Midland mainline capacity by 10% but haven't realised yet.

Presumably you mean Derby to Sheffield? Surely taking intercity trains off the MML south of East Mids Parkway is a boost for the southern end of the MML.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

kinabalu said:

What a shambles. You can hardly see the screw ups for the screw ups atm. Johnson seems to be unravelling at a rate of knots, yet I find I'm taking no pleasure in it. It's the patriot in me, I suppose. When all's said and done I want the best for the UK. And the fact is, this bloke is our PM and quite likely to remain so for years, so I'd love to see him use this rocky period to reinvent himself. People do this sometimes so why not here. Let's see the facing of some hard truths then a reboot. Let's see a new Boris Johnson, one with integrity, grip and vision. Let's see a proper grown-up prime minister for what I like to think is a proper grown-up country. If I were advising him that's the 'tough love' message I'd give.

As a patriot who's probably overly bothered about our image abroad I am hoping the collapse comes fully, quickly and humiliatingly because I'd dearly love the rest of the world to stop conflating "Boris" with "Britain". We need to cut the knot, like - for a while at least - the USA did by turfing out Trump and electing Biden.

That doesn't require a change of government necessarily, it just needs a new leader (Rishi will do, Liz would not) who doesn't come across as a clown, seems morally upstanding and has a less antagonistic attitude to our neighbours particularly Ireland. Every time Britain is seen to be targeting Ireland the rest of the world thinks "there they go again".

Italy struggled to shake off the shadow of Berlusconi and he kept coming back. Our own Berlusconi needs to be more cleanly extricated from government.

So let him be gone and let's start rebuilding our global brand.

Yes, I fear my Johnson 'reboot' is probably a pipedream. Nevertheless that would genuinely be my advice to him. Finger out, red boxes, upgrade the cabinet with talent not stoolies, and please please please stop making stupid jokes about everything.

You strip out the stupid jokes and there's nothing left.

I can totally relate to that.

I think maybe you're being mean to me but it's ambiguous enough for me to pretend to myself that you're not.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

algarkirk said:

PB is weighted towards railway fans. It may be news to many that everyone in the north of England travels by car (in the north of Scotland also boat and small plane) and plans to carry on doing so. This is especially true of those who bother to vote and live in Tory or Tory winnable seats.

The number of people appalled by the Aeschylean tragedy of HSwhatever number being cancelled with be dwarfed by the indifferent and those pleased that their rhubarb beds and whippet race tracks are not being subject to compulsory purchase orders to build it.

As a bona fide Yorkshireman I can assure you this is damaging to the Tories.

It's fitting this narrative that Government is prepared to spaff up billions on London and the South but not the North.

It is indeed but as I've argued for years if you really wanted to help the North you'd recognise the North uses roads not rails for almost all transport and economic activity and that rails are a teeny, tiny obsessive primarily for people who work in Manchester or London.

If you really wanted to help the North then tens of billions invested in new motorways and roads - actually new motorways not turning hard shoulders into camera-operated lanes - would help the North far, far more.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

algarkirk said:

PB is weighted towards railway fans. It may be news to many that everyone in the north of England travels by car (in the north of Scotland also boat and small plane) and plans to carry on doing so. This is especially true of those who bother to vote and live in Tory or Tory winnable seats.

The number of people appalled by the Aeschylean tragedy of HSwhatever number being cancelled with be dwarfed by the indifferent and those pleased that their rhubarb beds and whippet race tracks are not being subject to compulsory purchase orders to build it.

As a bona fide Yorkshireman I can assure you this is damaging to the Tories.

It's fitting this narrative that Government is prepared to spaff up billions on London and the South but not the North.

It is indeed but as I've argued for years if you really wanted to help the North you'd recognise the North uses roads not rails for almost all transport and economic activity and that rails are a teeny, tiny obsessive primarily for people who work in Manchester or London.

If you really wanted to help the North then tens of billions invested in new motorways and roads - actually new motorways not turning hard shoulders into camera-operated lanes - would help the North far, far more.

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

You could not make it up. When will you realise G that you cannot polish a turd and we all know it.

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

You could not make it up. When will you realise G that you cannot polish a turd and we all know it.

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.

You a MMT fan?

(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)

No.

But I do note:

- U.K. prints it’s own money.
- The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked.
- Interest rates are very low.

I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.

Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

Theuniondivvie said:

If you can’t polish a turd, grow tomatoes from it.

https://twitter.com/kentindell/status/1461100613140467721?s=21

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.

You a MMT fan?

(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)

No.

But I do note:

- U.K. prints it’s own money.
- The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked.
- Interest rates are very low.

I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.

Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

My issue with MMT is that it would clearly work - up to the point when it all explodes in an almighty explosion of inflation.

The problem is that you really want another guinea pig to find out what the explosion point is.

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.

You a MMT fan?

(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)

No.

But I do note:

- U.K. prints it’s own money.
- The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked.
- Interest rates are very low.

I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.

Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.

You a MMT fan?

(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)

No.

But I do note:

- U.K. prints it’s own money.
- The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked.
- Interest rates are very low.

I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.

Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

I don't know why.

I'll guess your answer might be infrastructure?

I agree we should be borrowing heavily in these times of low interest rates (which won't be along for much longer by my reading.)

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

TOPPING said:

TimS said:

Scott_xP said:

Yesterday Boris Johnson admitted he crashed the car when it came to sleaze.

Today he has derailed the trains.

He’s taking the country absolutely nowhere.

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461325245038698497

He's having a good week, Sir Keir, but he really needs to start appending these kinds of statements with what Labour will do. That's how to start building a government in waiting.

"...He's taking the country absolutely nowhere
A Labour government will build HS3 and NPR, no ifs and buts"

etc. for each policy area. There is enough flexibility around timescales and funding that he need not worry about "unfunded promises" accusations, and I'm not sure they would stick anyway. Would just make the Tories look mean to the North.

The accepted wisdom is that LotOs only need to articulate policies once a GE is in sight.

Generally those saying they need a policy from the Opposition NOW are govt supporters; and they only say it when the govt is in trouble.

Obviously there is truth in this, but the demands of this particular time would suggest that something else is needed from the opposition in addition to waiting modestly on the subs bench sucking an orange.

The current lot have the claim to fame that they and only they could deliver and have delivered Brexit, along with some sub claims about vaccine programmes and so on. There is much truth in the first, and a bit of truth in the second.

They also have Olympic style records in borrowing, taxing and spending, to the extent that they are maxed out on their credit cards, and almost look like the Labour party.

They also look staggeringly sloppy in their presentation and style.

With all that they are level in the polls, when they should be 20 points behind.

Labour need to to exude two things: the capacity to win bigly, and competence with moderation coming out of their ears in warm blasts of steam.

They are not there yet. Further, the Brexit thingy means that they perhaps cannot win without actually telling us, realistically and simply, where they stand on the post Brexit plans, and on things like social care. Three word slogans won't do. They remind us of T May's three word slogans.

I don't think Labour should be 20 points ahead when the pandemic has blotted them out for most of the 2 years that have passed since the election.

That's the problem for Labour for supporting the government throughout those two years. They haven't built up a track record for independent thought where people could have said yes those guys super astute we always suspected Johnson was a tosser.

It's a bit late now. imo.

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

How does this sit with your assertion that "Trade is pretty much a function: Value = (Proximity x Economic size) - Regulatory Friction"?

RochdalePioneers said:

JBriskin3 said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How about a PB meet on the Plymouth to Aberdeen train?

We could commandeer a few coaches and PBers just join along the route, we could have convivial chats on there, and then party when we get to Aberdeen.

Can you get a week off work

You're exageratting. I once drove from Aberdeen to Somerset in a day. By train they might need a pit stop though I guess.

I have business interests in Zummerzet. Easily driveable from an hour north of Aberdeen in a day.

MattW said:

Well - back, depollyped and with the sinuses bored out; and explicit instruction to sneeze with open mouth to avoid pushing them back the other way ;-) .

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Imagine you are a private firm, looking to invest in the U.K.

Are you gonna put your money in the North, after today, when the government has decided it’s not worth investing in?

You are not.

Be honest - you would take one look and start investigating the none UK options.

I wonder if PBers do invest locally? A few years ago I funded a startup gym near here (about 25k and 25k 3-4 years later), which is now coming good after years of hard work. For me it is part of my pension planning.

There are now half a dozen staff on the team, therapists based there, and a cafe about to open.

Do others do similar? Any examples?

JosiasJessop said:

Theuniondivvie said:

If you can’t polish a turd, grow tomatoes from it.

https://twitter.com/kentindell/status/1461100613140467721?s=21

My dad did lots of work on sewage farms. Tomato plants were everywhere for this reason.

As far as I know he was never brave enough to pick any ...

MattW said:

Well - back, depollyped and with the sinuses bored out; and explicit instruction to sneeze with open mouth to avoid pushing them back the other way ;-) .

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Imagine you are a private firm, looking to invest in the U.K.

Are you gonna put your money in the North, after today, when the government has decided it’s not worth investing in?

You are not.

Be honest - you would take one look and start investigating the none UK options.

I wonder if PBers do invest locally? A few years ago I funded a startup gym near here (tartup funding more 3-4 years later), which is now coming good after years of hard work. For me it is part of my pension planning.

There are now half a dozen staff on the team, therapists based there, and a cafe about to open.

Do others do similar? Any examples?

Aslan said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

Gardenwalker said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.

You a MMT fan?

(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)

No.

But I do note:

- U.K. prints it’s own money.
- The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked.
- Interest rates are very low.

I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.

Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

I don't know why.

I'll guess your answer might be infrastructure?

I agree we should be borrowing heavily in these times of low interest rates (which won't be along for much longer by my reading.)

Infrastructure + Skills + Local Autonomy is the magic recipe.

Like the Local Autonomy that got us out of the EU you mean

Sorry, couldn't resist.

It’s actually a fair point.
But Westminster (to my mind) had massive autonomy within the EU, especially outside the Euro.

Whereas, in the U.K., local government is astonishingly feeble. International studies basically put U.K. (and Ireland) in a bucket with some dodgy East European countries that only got “democracy” about twenty years ago.

Ireland is massively more centralized than the UK

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

algarkirk said:

PB is weighted towards railway fans. It may be news to many that everyone in the north of England travels by car (in the north of Scotland also boat and small plane) and plans to carry on doing so. This is especially true of those who bother to vote and live in Tory or Tory winnable seats.

The number of people appalled by the Aeschylean tragedy of HSwhatever number being cancelled with be dwarfed by the indifferent and those pleased that their rhubarb beds and whippet race tracks are not being subject to compulsory purchase orders to build it.

As a bona fide Yorkshireman I can assure you this is damaging to the Tories.

It's fitting this narrative that Government is prepared to spaff up billions on London and the South but not the North.

It is indeed but as I've argued for years if you really wanted to help the North you'd recognise the North uses roads not rails for almost all transport and economic activity and that rails are a teeny, tiny obsessive primarily for people who work in Manchester or London.

If you really wanted to help the North then tens of billions invested in new motorways and roads - actually new motorways not turning hard shoulders into camera-operated lanes - would help the North far, far more.

How does that get you anywhere any faster? - it may remove a few traffic jams (I would however seriously doubt it) but you can still only travel at 70mph.

eek said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

Given that today's announcement is the equivalent of a cricket ball to the bollox while someone else went with a baseball bat to both legs and an arm, Gove is going to have great difficult delivering anything now.

Carnyx said:

JBriskin3 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JosiasJessop said:

Theuniondivvie said:

If you can’t polish a turd, grow tomatoes from it.

https://twitter.com/kentindell/status/1461100613140467721?s=21

My dad did lots of work on sewage farms. Tomato plants were everywhere for this reason.

As far as I know he was never brave enough to pick any ...

As I may have mentioned my dad fought in the Korean War. Though he didn’t talk that much abut it, one thing he did say was that the whole country smelled of shit. Human excrement was the main fertiliser and it being a largely agricultural country, the reek was pervasive. Bully beef and tinned jam all round..

Your Dad?

I only found out at his funeral that my grandad fought there.

I didn't realise you were such an old fart.

Just wait till you grow a bit older. Then someone else will be calling you an o. f.

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

algarkirk said:

PB is weighted towards railway fans. It may be news to many that everyone in the north of England travels by car (in the north of Scotland also boat and small plane) and plans to carry on doing so. This is especially true of those who bother to vote and live in Tory or Tory winnable seats.

The number of people appalled by the Aeschylean tragedy of HSwhatever number being cancelled with be dwarfed by the indifferent and those pleased that their rhubarb beds and whippet race tracks are not being subject to compulsory purchase orders to build it.

As a bona fide Yorkshireman I can assure you this is damaging to the Tories.

It's fitting this narrative that Government is prepared to spaff up billions on London and the South but not the North.

It is indeed but as I've argued for years if you really wanted to help the North you'd recognise the North uses roads not rails for almost all transport and economic activity and that rails are a teeny, tiny obsessive primarily for people who work in Manchester or London.

If you really wanted to help the North then tens of billions invested in new motorways and roads - actually new motorways not turning hard shoulders into camera-operated lanes - would help the North far, far more.

How does that get you anywhere any faster? - it may remove a few traffic jams (I would however seriously doubt it) but you can still only travel at 70mph.

70mph is reasonably fast. The problem is both that you can't always do 70mp and that you're forced to go on a much longer journey because you have to follow the limited amount of roads that are available.

If you were to build a string of new motorways, it would remove a lot of traffic jams, as vehicles wouldn't all be piled into the same pinch points like the M60 or M6/M62 interchange. But equally importantly it would allow more direct routes, so you wouldn't be compelled to go on stupidly long detours simply because the limited motorway network takes you that way.

I gave the example earlier today of Aintree to Bolton. They're 22 miles apart so should be about 18 minutes apart at 70mph but instead its a 1 hour journey. As the crow flies that's basically a straight line West to East and the M58 takes you halfway there in a virtually straight line. But because the M58 was only half-built, that's not the route to go.

Instead according to Google Maps the quickest route to take is to go South on the M57 past Knowsley until you reach the M62 interchange, then East on the M62 past Warrington until you get to Eccles, Manchester and the M60, through Manchester on the M60 until you reach the M61, then back North again on the A666.

What should be an 18 minutes point to point 70mph journey instead takes an hour, across four different motorways, going South then North again, and through some of the most congested roads in the Northwest in Manchester because there is no alternative built.

Its maddening.

MattW said:

JBriskin3 said:

eek said:

JBriskin3 said:

LostPassword said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.

It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.

He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?

Let's see how it plays out.

Given that today's announcement is the equivalent of a cricket ball to the bollox while someone else went with a baseball bat to both legs and an arm, Gove is going to have great difficult delivering anything now.

I was a HS2E fan - but since it was not really going to affect me I'll cope.

If Nippy actually cared about Scotland she'd call BJ's bluff and start building HS2E from Aberdeen.

But everyone knows she hates Aberdeen and the Shire for voting No.

The Shire?

Hobbits?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

Gardenwalker said:

That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?

How does this sit with your assertion that "Trade is pretty much a function: Value = (Proximity x Economic size) - Regulatory Friction"?

The problem for the UK outside of London and the SE is geography. There's an arc of prosperity that runs from Northern Italy through Switzerland, South and West Germany, France and the Low Countries and across the Channel. It ends in the Chilterns. With better transport infrastructure you can shrink the effective distance between the other parts of the UK and those prosperous regions of Western Europe. With fewer trade barriers you can also encourage trade and boost productivity. I just don't see any logic right now in the Government's approach, I think it is more or less bound to mean a further deterioration in the standard of living in the rest of the UK vs London and the SE. It's tragic, really.