Johnson’s Nightmare November continues with another bad poll – politicalbetting.com

Nigelb said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Out of interest, you know how we're doing this axe-murdered plan to make it faster?

ECML upgrades in full: 2037
HS2 to Nottingham: 2043
Manchester - Leeds: 2043

Boris Johnson defends HS2 U-turn, saying ‘levelling up cannot wait that long
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/nov/18/raab-tories-boris-johnson-standards-reform-hs2-rail-uk-politics-live-latest-updates

Can't wait that long? This is the report. Showing the timescale for the new faster plan. Subject to treasury reauthorisation of every step of the plan before it is authorised. Because this plan is not a commitment to build despite them saying so.



Levelling up cannot wait that long. Until 2043. Assuming it doesn't get quietly binned. Vote Conservative as we Build Back Better in the parliament after the parliament after next.

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

Correct. This will never be built:

"commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point."

eek said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I do wonder if the treasury will change it's viewpoint when half of them move North (or whether that move is going to rapidly peter out).

Gravity modelling isn't really a London/not London thing. It's just not very good and basically says "hey this is successful today so it will be successful tomorrow, this isn't so it won't tomorrow either". A bit more complicated but essentially it starves less economically developed places of investment and doubles up in more economically developed ones. Hence London, Manchester and a few other places doing really well and the rest of the country getting two bits of fuck all.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

Very moving account by Lord Monson on WatO (13.30) of the death of his son.

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Speaking as an occasional friend of @BorisJohnson, also as a fellow journalist: in 45 years of civil service and then public reporting, the only worse prime minister I have seen is Silvio Berlusconi.
https://twitter.com/JohnGPeet/status/1461081436379926532

A more entertaining introduction than "Speaking an ardent pro-EU zealot, who's written as a journalist and for decades against Brexit ..."

Do you not get it Philip. Boris got Brexit over the line. Your Brexit. That most sacred of political achievements. All down to Boris.

And you know what? He was a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else then and he is a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else now.

And he is the guy that is your hero. Boris supported Brexit; he is Brexit. And like everything else he supports it therefore merits a huge scepticism as to its value.

No you don't get it. Boris may be a tosser not giving a damn, but he's our tosser not giving a damn.

If we want a different tosser who will give a damn, then we can vote for one. That's Brexit.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

kinabalu said:

What a shambles. You can hardly see the screw ups for the screw ups atm. Johnson seems to be unravelling at a rate of knots, yet I find I'm taking no pleasure in it. It's the patriot in me, I suppose. When all's said and done I want the best for the UK. And the fact is, this bloke is our PM and quite likely to remain so for years, so I'd love to see him use this rocky period to reinvent himself. People do this sometimes so why not here. Let's see the facing of some hard truths then a reboot. Let's see a new Boris Johnson, one with integrity, grip and vision. Let's see a proper grown-up prime minister for what I like to think is a proper grown-up country. If I were advising him that's the 'tough love' message I'd give.

As a patriot who's probably overly bothered about our image abroad I am hoping the collapse comes fully, quickly and humiliatingly because I'd dearly love the rest of the world to stop conflating "Boris" with "Britain". We need to cut the knot, like - for a while at least - the USA did by turfing out Trump and electing Biden.

That doesn't require a change of government necessarily, it just needs a new leader (Rishi will do, Liz would not) who doesn't come across as a clown, seems morally upstanding and has a less antagonistic attitude to our neighbours particularly Ireland. Every time Britain is seen to be targeting Ireland the rest of the world thinks "there they go again".

Italy struggled to shake off the shadow of Berlusconi and he kept coming back. Our own Berlusconi needs to be more cleanly extricated from government.

So let him be gone and let's start rebuilding our global brand.

Yes, I fear my Johnson 'reboot' is probably a pipedream. Nevertheless that would genuinely be my advice to him. Finger out, red boxes, upgrade the cabinet with talent not stoolies, and please please please stop making stupid jokes about everything.

You strip out the stupid jokes and there's nothing left.

I can totally relate to that.

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Well to Glasgow Central - HS2E is required to speed up travel to Edinburgh and everywhere else in Scotland.

Surely with HS2 to Crewe, Edinburgh-Euston will become a lot quicker than Edinburgh-King's Cross?

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Speaking as an occasional friend of @BorisJohnson, also as a fellow journalist: in 45 years of civil service and then public reporting, the only worse prime minister I have seen is Silvio Berlusconi.
https://twitter.com/JohnGPeet/status/1461081436379926532

A more entertaining introduction than "Speaking an ardent pro-EU zealot, who's written as a journalist and for decades against Brexit ..."

Do you not get it Philip. Boris got Brexit over the line. Your Brexit. That most sacred of political achievements. All down to Boris.

And you know what? He was a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else then and he is a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else now.

And he is the guy that is your hero. Boris supported Brexit; he is Brexit. And like everything else he supports it therefore merits a huge scepticism as to its value.

No you don't get it. Boris may be a tosser not giving a damn, but he's our tosser not giving a damn.

If we want a different tosser who will give a damn, then we can vote for one. That's Brexit.

We always could.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Since you're an expert on this, can you find any of the current on average 83 minute trains from York to Manchester?

Also can he tell me how trains from London can go beyond Glasgow Central at Glasgow?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

I just do not see the HS2W not being completed by 2042

Why would it be completed? - the economic model for it is no longer valid due to the lack of HS3 - on which the economic model was dependent.

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

It's a little worse than that, actually: a few years ago, it was decided to move the Birmingham International to Crewe link from HS2 phase 2 to a phase 2a - essentially decoupling it from the main phase 2. Construction is expected to start on 2a in 2024.

Why is this important? The Crewe link allows trains on the classic network to access HS2 phase 1 to London much further north. It also makes it slightly easier to cancel the rest of the western leg as well...

How about a PB meet on the Plymouth to Aberdeen train?

We could commandeer a few coaches and PBers just join along the route, we could have convivial chats on there, and then party when we get to Aberdeen.

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

tlg86 said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Well to Glasgow Central - HS2E is required to speed up travel to Edinburgh and everywhere else in Scotland.

Surely with HS2 to Crewe, Edinburgh-Euston will become a lot quicker than Edinburgh-King's Cross?

London to Edinburgh ECML is 4 hours 29 fastest.

Fastest train Crewe to Edinburgh is 3 hours 13.

London Crewe is an hour so you save 16 minutes - provided there are no delays on the route and you don't need to wait 17 minutes (or more likely 45) for a connection.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Since you're an expert on this, can you find any of the current on average 83 minute trains from York to Manchester?

I am talking about London to Glasgow

You were earlier talking about York to Manchester, so I'm following up on that.

I was only staying that I understood Shapps to say it would cut 28 minutes off the journey not make the journey 28 minutes

TheScreamingEagles said:

and then party when we get to Aberdeen.

Having partied in Aberdeen, this is the worst part of your plan...

Mr. Abode, all three circuits are meant to be good for Mercedes. But two are totally new and one (Abu Dhabi) is altered to try and encourage overtaking.

However, Interlagos was pretty strong for Mercedes too (looking at Verstappen/Bottas) and Hamilton had to cane his engine for two hours which will have an impact down the line.

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

and then party when we get to Aberdeen.

Having partied in Aberdeen, this is the worst part of your plan...

You need to go to the Malmaison.

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

TheScreamingEagles said:

How about a PB meet on the Plymouth to Aberdeen train?

We could commandeer a few coaches and PBers just join along the route, we could have convivial chats on there, and then party when we get to Aberdeen.

I'll be here waiting for you jollie fellows - if you need a place to stay the Ibis has good rates.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

kinabalu said:

What a shambles. You can hardly see the screw ups for the screw ups atm. Johnson seems to be unravelling at a rate of knots, yet I find I'm taking no pleasure in it. It's the patriot in me, I suppose. When all's said and done I want the best for the UK. And the fact is, this bloke is our PM and quite likely to remain so for years, so I'd love to see him use this rocky period to reinvent himself. People do this sometimes so why not here. Let's see the facing of some hard truths then a reboot. Let's see a new Boris Johnson, one with integrity, grip and vision. Let's see a proper grown-up prime minister for what I like to think is a proper grown-up country. If I were advising him that's the 'tough love' message I'd give.

As a patriot who's probably overly bothered about our image abroad I am hoping the collapse comes fully, quickly and humiliatingly because I'd dearly love the rest of the world to stop conflating "Boris" with "Britain". We need to cut the knot, like - for a while at least - the USA did by turfing out Trump and electing Biden.

That doesn't require a change of government necessarily, it just needs a new leader (Rishi will do, Liz would not) who doesn't come across as a clown, seems morally upstanding and has a less antagonistic attitude to our neighbours particularly Ireland. Every time Britain is seen to be targeting Ireland the rest of the world thinks "there they go again".

Italy struggled to shake off the shadow of Berlusconi and he kept coming back. Our own Berlusconi needs to be more cleanly extricated from government.

So let him be gone and let's start rebuilding our global brand.

Yes, I fear my Johnson 'reboot' is probably a pipedream. Nevertheless that would genuinely be my advice to him. Finger out, red boxes, upgrade the cabinet with talent not stoolies, and please please please stop making stupid jokes about everything.

You strip out the stupid jokes and there's nothing left.

Yep fraid so.

The template I usually imagine for a top politician talking to his speechwriter is "Ok, it's good on the policies and the vision, I like that a lot, but can you put a couple of jokes in, just to lighten things up a bit?"

But for BJ, I imagine this reversed. "Ha ha ha. Some absolute crackers in there! Every one a winner what? It'll go down a storm. But listen, can we just have one or two girly swot policy type thingies as well, so it doesn't look like I'm totally taking the piss?"

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Since you're an expert on this, can you find any of the current on average 83 minute trains from York to Manchester?

I am talking about London to Glasgow

You were talking about London to Scotland, you only changed it to London to Glasgow when I pointed out it doesn't help the rest of Scotland at all.

A 10 minute difference on a 5 hour journey, no one is going to care 1 bit - with HS2E it was 35 minutes.

Yet speed isn't what is being gained here - it's capacity to add more local services and capacity to move freight in an eco-friendly matter that is going to be completely lost.

In fairness it's possible to go the long way round from Edinburgh via Carlisle. But that would presumably add to the timetable crowding of the track diagram charts on the WCML as far as Warrington. And only useful if you want to go to places like Brum and London, rather than fine cities such as Newcastle or York. It's the London as the Black Hole of the UK thinking all over again (like making the northerners walk from Euston to St Pancras if they are so uppity as to want to go to the rest of Europe).

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

Speaking as an occasional friend of @BorisJohnson, also as a fellow journalist: in 45 years of civil service and then public reporting, the only worse prime minister I have seen is Silvio Berlusconi.
https://twitter.com/JohnGPeet/status/1461081436379926532

A more entertaining introduction than "Speaking an ardent pro-EU zealot, who's written as a journalist and for decades against Brexit ..."

Do you not get it Philip. Boris got Brexit over the line. Your Brexit. That most sacred of political achievements. All down to Boris.

And you know what? He was a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else then and he is a tosser not giving a damn, still less knowing anything about it or anything else now.

And he is the guy that is your hero. Boris supported Brexit; he is Brexit. And like everything else he supports it therefore merits a huge scepticism as to its value.

No you don't get it. Boris may be a tosser not giving a damn, but he's our tosser not giving a damn.

If we want a different tosser who will give a damn, then we can vote for one. That's Brexit.

We always could.

But we couldn't vote out Von Der Leyen.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I don't care how cheaper or quicker the WCML is/will be I will always prefer to go to Scotland via the East Coast mainline, beautiful scenery along the way.

And strangely enough the best bits starts north of York where HS2E would have finished.

Foxy said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Well to Glasgow Central - HS2E is required to speed up travel to Edinburgh and everywhere else in Scotland.

Surely with HS2 to Crewe, Edinburgh-Euston will become a lot quicker than Edinburgh-King's Cross?

London to Edinburgh ECML is 4 hours 29 fastest.

Fastest train Crewe to Edinburgh is 3 hours 13.

London Crewe is an hour so you save 16 minutes - provided there are no delays on the route.

And if there is anything more than a 16 minute wait between trains, it is slower.

I don't really get this obsession with speed. The reason that I rarely travel by train is the cost.

Advance purchases make it cost effective, on the day/7days before you travel prices are what make it expensive.

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigelb said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Out of interest, you know how we're doing this axe-murdered plan to make it faster?

ECML upgrades in full: 2037
HS2 to Nottingham: 2043
Manchester - Leeds: 2043

Boris Johnson defends HS2 U-turn, saying ‘levelling up cannot wait that long
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/nov/18/raab-tories-boris-johnson-standards-reform-hs2-rail-uk-politics-live-latest-updates

Can't wait that long? This is the report. Showing the timescale for the new faster plan. Subject to treasury reauthorisation of every step of the plan before it is authorised. Because this plan is not a commitment to build despite them saying so.



Levelling up cannot wait that long. Until 2043. Assuming it doesn't get quietly binned. Vote Conservative as we Build Back Better in the parliament after the parliament after next.

That was my point.
The entire statement is bollocks from start to finish.

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Well to Glasgow Central - HS2E is required to speed up travel to Edinburgh and everywhere else in Scotland.

Surely with HS2 to Crewe, Edinburgh-Euston will become a lot quicker than Edinburgh-King's Cross?

London to Edinburgh ECML is 4 hours 29 fastest.

Fastest train Crewe to Edinburgh is 3 hours 13.

London Crewe is an hour so you save 16 minutes - provided there are no delays on the route and you don't need to wait 17 minutes (or more likely 45) for a connection.

That's a bit misleading as those Crewe - Glasgow/Edinburgh trains stop quite a bit. I'd have thought they could flight a fast train to Glasgow and a fast train to Edinburgh once an hour and not lose too much capacity on the WCML.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I don't care how cheaper or quicker the WCML is/will be I will always prefer to go to Scotland via the East Coast mainline, beautiful scenery along the way.

Pulling into Durham and seeing the castle and cathedral is one of the great sights of this country,

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

The truth is, the cancelled program was utterly essential to any attempt to address the appalling underperformance of cities outside London.

This really is two countries - London and the SE, possibly *the* global capital for services - and the rest (65% of the bloody population!) which is now falling behind parts of the old Warsaw Pact in terms of productivity and thereby income levels.

My great hope for Johnson was that he is almost unique in the Tory Party in his affection for large scale infrastructure projects.

But even he couldn’t punch through the disastrous, self-defeating penny-wise mania of the gradgrinds in Treasury.

Forget politics, this is a very sad day for this country.

It's the same awful gravity models you hold so dear that is driving this. The econometricians and their "science" of economics say putting money into these places will yield no multiplier so the treasury has shit canned it.

One day, maybe soon, you'll agree with me that economics is full of bullshit artists who know fuck all about fuck all and the country would be a better place if we stuck them all on a boat and floated it out into the Atlantic.

I’m not an economist, but—-

It’s not the economics profession per se, in fact it’s a kind of perverted accounting that controls Treasury thinking.

As you kind of say, “if it’s not there, don’t build it” seems to be the mantra.

It makes sense if you have no theory whatsoever of how economic growth happens.

It absolutely is the whole bloody profession. They're all useless and like the pretence of being scientists when they aren't. One of my favourite things to do is goad them about how their Nobel prize is a facsimile of the real thing. They really don't like that one and they tend to to off in a huff.

People are always saying that economists are a waste of money. Yet economists continue to be employed, often at quite good salaries. The theory of revealed preference tells me that at least some people therefore don't think economists are a waste of money.

Fishing said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I don't care how cheaper or quicker the WCML is/will be I will always prefer to go to Scotland via the East Coast mainline, beautiful scenery along the way.

Pulling into Durham and seeing the castle and cathedral is one of the great sights of this country,

It is.

Walking out of Durham station is quite the experience.

Durham is great, that viaduct.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Since you're an expert on this, can you find any of the current on average 83 minute trains from York to Manchester?

I am talking about London to Glasgow

You were talking about London to Scotland, you only changed it to London to Glasgow when I pointed out it doesn't help the rest of Scotland at all.

A 10 minute difference on a 5 hour journey, no one is going to care 1 bit.

As I understand it trains do go to Edinburgh along the West coast mainline and cut across at Abington

However, I am cannot asuage the anger of some but just how popular or otherwise thee decisions are will become fairly obvious soon in the polling

Not Abington. Carstairs. And it's a slow way to get to Edinburgh.

TheScreamingEagles said:

How about a PB meet on the Plymouth to Aberdeen train?

We could commandeer a few coaches and PBers just join along the route, we could have convivial chats on there, and then party when we get to Aberdeen.

And a lengthy argument about masks...

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

The truth is, the cancelled program was utterly essential to any attempt to address the appalling underperformance of cities outside London.

This really is two countries - London and the SE, possibly *the* global capital for services - and the rest (65% of the bloody population!) which is now falling behind parts of the old Warsaw Pact in terms of productivity and thereby income levels.

My great hope for Johnson was that he is almost unique in the Tory Party in his affection for large scale infrastructure projects.

But even he couldn’t punch through the disastrous, self-defeating penny-wise mania of the gradgrinds in Treasury.

Forget politics, this is a very sad day for this country.

It's the same awful gravity models you hold so dear that is driving this. The econometricians and their "science" of economics say putting money into these places will yield no multiplier so the treasury has shit canned it.

One day, maybe soon, you'll agree with me that economics is full of bullshit artists who know fuck all about fuck all and the country would be a better place if we stuck them all on a boat and floated it out into the Atlantic.

I’m not an economist, but—-

It’s not the economics profession per se, in fact it’s a kind of perverted accounting that controls Treasury thinking.

As you kind of say, “if it’s not there, don’t build it” seems to be the mantra.

It makes sense if you have no theory whatsoever of how economic growth happens.

They are the Matthew 25 economists.
For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

It's a little worse than that, actually: a few years ago, it was decided to move the Birmingham International to Crewe link from HS2 phase 2 to a phase 2a - essentially decoupling it from the main phase 2. Construction is expected to start on 2a in 2024.

Why is this important? The Crewe link allows trains on the classic network to access HS2 phase 1 to London much further north. It also makes it slightly easier to cancel the rest of the western leg as well...

Oh I know, hence my "by 2042 following multiple rounds of reauthorisation" comment.

HS2 is dead. They'll manage the connection to the WCML and then pull the rest. Remember that a few bits of upgrade of existing lines is as good - better even - as a new high speed line.

Whats more, with HS2 dead, the rest of the network is similarly screwed. Fewer trains than now, less freight, more trucks. Again again for some posters, if you run trains at a higher speed on existing lines you reduce capacity which means you reduce the number of trains you can run.

Hurrah!

I'd utterly disagree that HS2 is dead - phase 1 is under construction at the moment, and I cannot see that being cancelled. Phase 2 has been severely trimmed - negatively IMO - and the rest of it has to be felt endangered. But HS2 is not dead.

I've still not had time to read the document: one thing that could mollify some people is for full electrification of the MML to occur from Kettering/Wellingborough to Sheffield. I assume they're not doing that?

Page 10:

We will complete the electrification of the Midland Main Line, allowing high speed journeys from London to Chesterfield and Sheffield in the same times to those originally proposed by HS2, decarbonising the railway, and bringing a long overdue improvement to passenger services.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1034360/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands.pdf

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

Extrapolating the future from the present was the fundamental philosophical reason I switched out of economics.
People don't behave in an immutable way. Nor rationally. At all. I understand there have been big advances in behavioural economics since, but the basically deterministic mindset seems to remain.

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

I agree obviously on your main point.

Not on trade, though.

It’s pretty obvious why goods trade gets harder and harder the further you are away. So making it harder to trade locally - which is what Brexit does - is just self-defeating.

Anyway, we’ll never agree on that until the numbers come in, perhaps, and maybe not even then.

I was once told that Sheffield to St Pancras has never been brought below two hours (and it could be quicker now) because there is an employer in Sheffield who has in their T&S policy that train journeys of over two hours can be done first class.

According to Belarus, Merkel is negotiating a humanitarian corridor to bring 2000 migrants to Germany.

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1461309594727337988

dixiedean said:

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Aslan said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

FFS

https://twitter.com/StephenJoseph7/status/1461321725518532609

Small print in Integrated Rail Plan: "commitments will be made only to progress individual schemes up to the next stage of development, and a re-authorisation will be required at that point." Cue @hmtreasury scrutiny before anything is built.

The same broken gravity models which have starved the north of investment will now be used to not build any of this stuff either. I've had so many arguments with our own "econometrics" people about the utility of the gravity model. They're addicted to them but compared to real world data they perform extremely poorly. One day, hopefully soon, people will realise that economics isn't a science and the predictive value of gravity modelling is very low. Yet our lives are effectively ruled by them from the treasury.

I always found it funny that the Treasury gravity model that showed leaving the EU was a bad thing found that having no trade deal with the EU at all was better than being in the EEA. If you read the report they just asterisk it out and said "this doesn't make sense so we set it the difference to zero", without stopping to pause about the implications for the overall analysis.

I think Max, and certainly you, are confused about gravity.

The gravity model of trade says that the closer you are to another country, the more likely you are to trade (especially goods) with them.

It’s highly predictive, although Brexiters don’t like this for some reason.

I can’t comment on your Treasury observation, although it sounds like shite.

No, the issue is that where there is nothing or very little it can't properly predict the multiplier so in most cases they set it to zero. So in this scenario where economic development in these northern places is quite low they rate the multiplier will also be very, very low and the absolute GDP gain will be tiny leading to a really low ROI. This also holds for trade deals, the gravity models uprate where stuff already exists and downrates where not a lot or nothing exists. It's fundamentally a broken way to look at any situation or investment. Gravity models would have us all invested in BT in 2005 and completely ignore Apple (and loads of investment houses did that).

Extrapolating the future from the present was the fundamental philosophical reason I switched out of economics.
People don't behave in an immutable way. Nor rationally. At all. I understand there have been big advances in behavioural economics since, but the basically deterministic mindset seems to remain.

This is not about homo economicus though.

This is Treasury simply saying, we don’t care how economic growth happens, it’s nowt to do with us.

Imagine if Singapore had thought the same way in 1960.

TOPPING said:

TimS said:

Scott_xP said:

Yesterday Boris Johnson admitted he crashed the car when it came to sleaze.

Today he has derailed the trains.

He’s taking the country absolutely nowhere.

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1461325245038698497

He's having a good week, Sir Keir, but he really needs to start appending these kinds of statements with what Labour will do. That's how to start building a government in waiting.

"...He's taking the country absolutely nowhere
A Labour government will build HS3 and NPR, no ifs and buts"

etc. for each policy area. There is enough flexibility around timescales and funding that he need not worry about "unfunded promises" accusations, and I'm not sure they would stick anyway. Would just make the Tories look mean to the North.

The accepted wisdom is that LotOs only need to articulate policies once a GE is in sight.

Generally those saying they need a policy from the Opposition NOW are govt supporters; and they only say it when the govt is in trouble.

Obviously there is truth in this, but the demands of this particular time would suggest that something else is needed from the opposition in addition to waiting modestly on the subs bench sucking an orange.

The current lot have the claim to fame that they and only they could deliver and have delivered Brexit, along with some sub claims about vaccine programmes and so on. There is much truth in the first, and a bit of truth in the second.

They also have Olympic style records in borrowing, taxing and spending, to the extent that they are maxed out on their credit cards, and almost look like the Labour party.

They also look staggeringly sloppy in their presentation and style.

With all that they are level in the polls, when they should be 20 points behind.

Labour need to to exude two things: the capacity to win bigly, and competence with moderation coming out of their ears in warm blasts of steam.

They are not there yet. Further, the Brexit thingy means that they perhaps cannot win without actually telling us, realistically and simply, where they stand on the post Brexit plans, and on things like social care. Three word slogans won't do. They remind us of T May's three word slogans.

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

Well to Glasgow Central - HS2E is required to speed up travel to Edinburgh and everywhere else in Scotland.

Surely with HS2 to Crewe, Edinburgh-Euston will become a lot quicker than Edinburgh-King's Cross?

London to Edinburgh ECML is 4 hours 29 fastest.

Fastest train Crewe to Edinburgh is 3 hours 13.

London Crewe is an hour so you save 16 minutes - provided there are no delays on the route and you don't need to wait 17 minutes (or more likely 45) for a connection.

Pre-pandemic there were regularly 4h20m trains on the ECML from Edinburgh to London. Sometimes I didn't even get refunds for them being late. And the new Azuma timetable was supposed to speed some of them up a bit.

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

It requires obstinacy and attention to detail.

Cummings was an absolute shit, but you see why he wanted control of the Treasury spads.

Treasury should be broken up; it’s a failed organisation, but it has the country in a death-grip.

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

It's a little worse than that, actually: a few years ago, it was decided to move the Birmingham International to Crewe link from HS2 phase 2 to a phase 2a - essentially decoupling it from the main phase 2. Construction is expected to start on 2a in 2024.

Why is this important? The Crewe link allows trains on the classic network to access HS2 phase 1 to London much further north. It also makes it slightly easier to cancel the rest of the western leg as well...

Oh I know, hence my "by 2042 following multiple rounds of reauthorisation" comment.

HS2 is dead. They'll manage the connection to the WCML and then pull the rest. Remember that a few bits of upgrade of existing lines is as good - better even - as a new high speed line.

Whats more, with HS2 dead, the rest of the network is similarly screwed. Fewer trains than now, less freight, more trucks. Again again for some posters, if you run trains at a higher speed on existing lines you reduce capacity which means you reduce the number of trains you can run.

Hurrah!

I'd utterly disagree that HS2 is dead - phase 1 is under construction at the moment, and I cannot see that being cancelled. Phase 2 has been severely trimmed - negatively IMO - and the rest of it has to be felt endangered. But HS2 is not dead.

I've still not had time to read the document: one thing that could mollify some people is for full electrification of the MML to occur from Kettering/Wellingborough to Sheffield. I assume they're not doing that?

Page 10:

We will complete the electrification of the Midland Main Line, allowing high speed journeys from London to Chesterfield and Sheffield in the same times to those originally proposed by HS2, decarbonising the railway, and bringing a long overdue improvement to passenger services.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1034360/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands.pdf

Thanks. Interestingly, the plan is to continue electrification to Sheffield from Derby (p. 82). I'd have expected an electrified / upgraded Trent Valley route to offer better times to Sheffield.

You don't mean Trent Valley (that's the WCML) - I guess you mean the Erewash line from Toton to Clay Cross Junction? Yeah, I don't know why every Sheffield to London train needs to through Derby and they need to electrify the Erewash line so that they have a diversionary route.

Gardenwalker said:

kinabalu said:

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808

There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.

There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.

No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.

I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.

My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.

Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?

It requires obstinacy and attention to detail.

Cummings was an absolute shit, but you see why he wanted control of the Treasury spads.

Treasury should be broken up; it’s a failed organisation, but it has the country in a death-grip.

The Treasury in theory is going to be split in 2 - if that was done successfully (sadly it won't be) than the 2 halves will have very different aims..

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

JosiasJessop said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

swing_voter said:

dixiedean said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Government's plan for #NorthernPowerhouseRail. There is some new track, going about half way across the Pennines. (This also shows, as expected, that HS2 will go to Manchester)



https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461300460313362435?s=20

That new track seems to connect Warrington with Huddersfield. Ideal for a Thursday night mid-table RL clash in 2050.
But not for regional re-generation.
Also, why does the "upgrade" stop at Northallerton?

Northallerton is Rishi's train station, he lives a short distance from it.

Well, nobody seems to have discussed today what the Scots might think about the complete foulup over HS2. But seems superfluous when the Yorkshirepersons, monkey-hangers and Geordies are doing an admirable job of assessment already.

Mind, I seem to recall Mr Johnson proclaiming how HS2 would strengthen the sinews of the Union.

Ironically HS2 when completed will speed rail to Scotland

But it will never now be completed. That is the whole point of the news today.

The west coast HS2 will be completed speeding trains to Scotland

As HS2 East has just been partially scrapped you mean "HS2 West will be completed" as HS2 will not be completed.

You are aware that nothing has been committed to. When you say it will be completed. In 2042. It will have had to survive multiple rounds of reauthorisation. Which in the real world we know it will not.

It's a little worse than that, actually: a few years ago, it was decided to move the Birmingham International to Crewe link from HS2 phase 2 to a phase 2a - essentially decoupling it from the main phase 2. Construction is expected to start on 2a in 2024.

Why is this important? The Crewe link allows trains on the classic network to access HS2 phase 1 to London much further north. It also makes it slightly easier to cancel the rest of the western leg as well...

Oh I know, hence my "by 2042 following multiple rounds of reauthorisation" comment.

HS2 is dead. They'll manage the connection to the WCML and then pull the rest. Remember that a few bits of upgrade of existing lines is as good - better even - as a new high speed line.

Whats more, with HS2 dead, the rest of the network is similarly screwed. Fewer trains than now, less freight, more trucks. Again again for some posters, if you run trains at a higher speed on existing lines you reduce capacity which means you reduce the number of trains you can run.

Hurrah!

I'd utterly disagree that HS2 is dead - phase 1 is under construction at the moment, and I cannot see that being cancelled. Phase 2 has been severely trimmed - negatively IMO - and the rest of it has to be felt endangered. But HS2 is not dead.

I've still not had time to read the document: one thing that could mollify some people is for full electrification of the MML to occur from Kettering/Wellingborough to Sheffield. I assume they're not doing that?

HS2 is more than just phase 1. It was a project to transform connectivity which provides major capacity upgrades across the network. That is now dead and buried - they are now actively cutting the existing not enough capacity.

Yes they are wiring up the midland to Sheffield. Which will then have HS services on it north of Nottingham City Central Power Station Parkway. As it is only a 2 track railway through the existing bottlenecks (i.e. Chesterfield to Sheffield) we reduce capacity as fast services need longer headways than slower trains.

Nothing at all for Sheffield to anywhere that isn't south. Better still all the places already hit by HS2E planning remain hit as they aren't going to release the land.

I agree HS2 is more than just phase 1 - and I want to see the whole thing built (although as I said before, some alterations to the northern parts to integrate with NPR are understandable). But calling HS2 'dead' is also a trifle hyperbolic.

TheScreamingEagles said:

BlancheLivermore said:

tlg86 said:

I was once told that Sheffield to St Pancras has never been brought below two hours (and it could be quicker now) because there is an employer in Sheffield who has in their T&S policy that train journeys of over two hours can be done first class.

18:37
On time
Sheffield
20:36
On time
London St Pancras International
Plat. 2A estimated
East Midlands Railway
Super Off Peak
1h 59m, direct

It is the only one on today's schedule under two hours, though.

There was an early morning service that used to be 1hr 59 minutes as well but that was in the EMT days.

I caught it once.

Seems there's still a 10:37am train that does 1h59

“Tory MPs Criticise 'Disappointing' £96 Billion Integrated Rail Plan” - story by ⁦@nedsimons⁩
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mps-criticise-rail-plan_uk_6196461de4b0ae9a429c99ac