A Johnson exit in 2022 moving up in the betting – politicalbetting.com
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Is "murderous, inexcusable and very stupid" a new way of indicating support then?williamglenn said:
By similar logic, would he support an invasion of Greece by Turkey to reunite the Ottoman Empire?TheScreamingEagles said:What a tw@
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He gets mentioned at the Council - and that Sauron is just a flunky.Fysics_Teacher said:
Morgoth wasn’t in LoTR, only the backstory.Malmesbury said:
Morgoth. Sauron was cosplaying Morgoth, and was basically working for him on a zero hours contract.Fysics_Teacher said:
Sauron. Was that a trick question?MoonRabbit said:
Tits and Dragon’s we called it. Can I say that?IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
Out of all the baddies in Lord of the Rings, which one was baddest?0 -
Gandalf.MoonRabbit said:
Tits and Dragon’s we called it. Can I say that?IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
Out of all the baddies in Lord of the Rings, which one was baddest?0 -
Bet on no goal scorer in the first goal scorer market. The odds are the same and you get own goals as they don't count.eek said:
Yep - always bet on a 0-0 draw in football - at least then there is a consolation if the match is boring.Fysics_Teacher said:
Never bet on the result you want to happen. If you win it is consolation, and if you lose you don’t care as much.MoonRabbit said:
That’s a really good point, am I to some degree betting on Libdems because I vote for them.algarkirk said:
A very interesting discussion. All betting is different. General election betting based on any number of opinion polls now is like betting on a horse race to take place in 2 year's time on the basis of yesterday's race result.MoonRabbit said:
I accept your apology ping. I am a real human. Why would I want to be a bot?ping said:
With respect, and I’m sorry if I’m insulting a real human, but your post reads like it’s written by a (spam?)bot.MoonRabbit said:Political Betting. I never considered it before because I didn’t think how it would work. It makes more sense to me now thinking election is a race - can you in political betting work out who will win and back the winner? I have never bet on politics. I do know about politics. When I was at uni I was told I understand political issues better than anyone. But I have only bet on horses. I backed two winners when I was at Cheltenham over the weekend. I bet on hurdles mostly, because I know now if I back the fastest horse I will win. steeplechase is too much of luck.
What I meant is the main factor I am looking for in hurdles is speed round the course, there are other things to consider, which I do look at, but I don’t think any of it even form is going to matter as speed on the course distance and conditions. I’m often backing winners with my way of choosing I don’t really care very much about odds, I don’t look for better odds when confident who winner is. Is there a similar way of doing this in political betting? I don’t think so.
Apologies if this doesn’t make any sense as well, I can see polling trends. Gaps between leading parties is what makes a headline, but the poll range for a party is more easy to get trend especially, when tracking on just each poll company - for example The Conservatives with Opinium - 15th Oct 41, 29th Oct 40, 6th Nov 37, 12th Nov 36. That’s a trend isn’t it? but what does trend mean in terms of placing a political bet? Nothing clear to me. obvious example is Lib Dem’s who I vote for I see polling double digits more often in polls recently, so do I place a bet because this trend means more blue boxes knocked over taking the mickey the way the Conservatives drove forklift through boxes? The answers no actually, libdems down again in latest polls, that’s the reason against deciding a political bet to quickly isn’t it?
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
One opinion poll won’t make me place a bet. even if I followed trends, does a trend in polling offer any assurance it’s going to go into real votes when election come? I would say no. media stories and fluctuating polling trends may not actually mean anything to actual votes, making it too much of a gamble and not based on betting talent, so I don’t think is very safe type of betting, it’s optimistic punts. Or worse, wishful thinking bets based on your political supporting isn’t it?
The big factors, it seems to me, are:
Do you know what you are talking about. (Don't bet on Belgian politics unless you understand Belgium. Don't bet on things where you find behaviour incomprehensible)
Do you get human nature, and do you have antennae for the spirit of the times? (C&A at 20/1 was a simple gift of cash from those who didn't to those who did. What was blindingly obvious to some was completely opaque to others).
Can you estimate how groups of people are likely to react.
Can you put your own preferences aside. Do you understand that being right, good, decent, sensible, experienced or qualified collectively is no grounds whatever for being elected by anyone for anything.
No-one has made much money - yet - by betting on Boris to lose.
Do you think general elections results can be known weeks in advance, or if another one was held a couple of weeks later it would have quite a different result? For a great many people it could be random exactly how they vote from one week to the next. Also a general election two weeks later could have a different result and different people taking part in the knowledge how the the first one went?
Could we have three general elections in six weeks and put this to the test?
There is also the point that you are more likely to spot value that way.1 -
The Alex Bird method.MoonRabbit said:
I have a friend who used to get right on the winning post so if it was waiting for a photo finish he was sure who had won so rushed to place a bet! But he was wrong nearly every time.algarkirk said:
Sadly having three GEs in 6 weeks fails to test the issue, as the facts of GE 1 alter the circumstances for GE 2 and so on - as you acknowledge. You would need access to parallel universes to try it out simultaneously but with the same electorate. The technology for this is unavailable. The next best technology available is Sir John Curtice, but he only tells you the result after the polls have closed.MoonRabbit said:
That’s a really good point, am I to some degree betting on Libdems because I vote for them.algarkirk said:
A very interesting discussion. All betting is different. General election betting based on any number of opinion polls now is like betting on a horse race to take place in 2 year's time on the basis of yesterday's race result.MoonRabbit said:
I accept your apology ping. I am a real human. Why would I want to be a bot?ping said:
With respect, and I’m sorry if I’m insulting a real human, but your post reads like it’s written by a (spam?)bot.MoonRabbit said:Political Betting. I never considered it before because I didn’t think how it would work. It makes more sense to me now thinking election is a race - can you in political betting work out who will win and back the winner? I have never bet on politics. I do know about politics. When I was at uni I was told I understand political issues better than anyone. But I have only bet on horses. I backed two winners when I was at Cheltenham over the weekend. I bet on hurdles mostly, because I know now if I back the fastest horse I will win. steeplechase is too much of luck.
What I meant is the main factor I am looking for in hurdles is speed round the course, there are other things to consider, which I do look at, but I don’t think any of it even form is going to matter as speed on the course distance and conditions. I’m often backing winners with my way of choosing I don’t really care very much about odds, I don’t look for better odds when confident who winner is. Is there a similar way of doing this in political betting? I don’t think so.
Apologies if this doesn’t make any sense as well, I can see polling trends. Gaps between leading parties is what makes a headline, but the poll range for a party is more easy to get trend especially, when tracking on just each poll company - for example The Conservatives with Opinium - 15th Oct 41, 29th Oct 40, 6th Nov 37, 12th Nov 36. That’s a trend isn’t it? but what does trend mean in terms of placing a political bet? Nothing clear to me. obvious example is Lib Dem’s who I vote for I see polling double digits more often in polls recently, so do I place a bet because this trend means more blue boxes knocked over taking the mickey the way the Conservatives drove forklift through boxes? The answers no actually, libdems down again in latest polls, that’s the reason against deciding a political bet to quickly isn’t it?
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
One opinion poll won’t make me place a bet. even if I followed trends, does a trend in polling offer any assurance it’s going to go into real votes when election come? I would say no. media stories and fluctuating polling trends may not actually mean anything to actual votes, making it too much of a gamble and not based on betting talent, so I don’t think is very safe type of betting, it’s optimistic punts. Or worse, wishful thinking bets based on your political supporting isn’t it?
The big factors, it seems to me, are:
Do you know what you are talking about. (Don't bet on Belgian politics unless you understand Belgium. Don't bet on things where you find behaviour incomprehensible)
Do you get human nature, and do you have antennae for the spirit of the times? (C&A at 20/1 was a simple gift of cash from those who didn't to those who did. What was blindingly obvious to some was completely opaque to others).
Can you estimate how groups of people are likely to react.
Can you put your own preferences aside. Do you understand that being right, good, decent, sensible, experienced or qualified collectively is no grounds whatever for being elected by anyone for anything.
No-one has made much money - yet - by betting on Boris to lose.
Do you think general elections results can be known weeks in advance, or if another one was held a couple of weeks later it would have quite a different result? For a great many people it could be random exactly how they vote from one week to the next. Also a general election two weeks later could have a different result and different people taking part in the knowledge how the the first one went?
Could we have three general elections in six weeks and put this to the test?
BTW 'known' is a high bar to clear. People don't offer odds on matters which can 'known' in advance. Especially bookies.
I think he got that idea from a fiction book without realising it was fiction.
ETA:-
He had many different ways of beating the bookmaker, but probably his most famous was his success on betting on the result of photo finishes. Unlike today photo finishes would take about 5 minutes to develop so there was always an active betting market on the outcome. Bird very early on noticed that when horses crossed the line together an optical illusion meant that the horse on the far side invariably looked like he had won.
He also discovered a simple technique which meant the illusion didn't occur. He stood at an elevated vantage point as near to the winning post as possible, he would keep very still, close his left eye and create an imaginary line across the track at the finishing line. He used this simple system for the next 20 years to make himself a fortune. With a reported 500 consecutive successful bets.
http://www.bookmakers1.com/alexbird.html0 -
I say it counts as backstory is story. So you can have Morgoths big spider friend as well.Fysics_Teacher said:
Morgoth wasn’t in LoTR, only the backstory.Malmesbury said:
Morgoth. Sauron was cosplaying Morgoth, and was basically working for him on a zero hours contract.Fysics_Teacher said:
Sauron. Was that a trick question?MoonRabbit said:
Tits and Dragon’s we called it. Can I say that?IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
Out of all the baddies in Lord of the Rings, which one was baddest?0 -
Or you could say, looking at this:IanB2 said:
Because there are zillions of people who'd like to see the LibDems running the country but are put off at a GE because the current system forces a choice between Tory and Labour and frightens them into not 'wasting' their vote, obvs.MoonRabbit said:So who thinks Lib Dem’s will win the North Shropshire bi election?
Voting against government in mid term but for them again with little change from last general election happens a lot doesn’t it? But why do voters do this?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
that there are lots of posh seats where people vote LD is just the right numbers to both feel good and make sure there is a Tory government that won't bash the rich.
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It was pouring down, we were all waiting to go, and he was arguing with someone through a window that their photo had got it wrong.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Alex Bird method.MoonRabbit said:
I have a friend who used to get right on the winning post so if it was waiting for a photo finish he was sure who had won so rushed to place a bet! But he was wrong nearly every time.algarkirk said:
Sadly having three GEs in 6 weeks fails to test the issue, as the facts of GE 1 alter the circumstances for GE 2 and so on - as you acknowledge. You would need access to parallel universes to try it out simultaneously but with the same electorate. The technology for this is unavailable. The next best technology available is Sir John Curtice, but he only tells you the result after the polls have closed.MoonRabbit said:
That’s a really good point, am I to some degree betting on Libdems because I vote for them.algarkirk said:
A very interesting discussion. All betting is different. General election betting based on any number of opinion polls now is like betting on a horse race to take place in 2 year's time on the basis of yesterday's race result.MoonRabbit said:
I accept your apology ping. I am a real human. Why would I want to be a bot?ping said:
With respect, and I’m sorry if I’m insulting a real human, but your post reads like it’s written by a (spam?)bot.MoonRabbit said:Political Betting. I never considered it before because I didn’t think how it would work. It makes more sense to me now thinking election is a race - can you in political betting work out who will win and back the winner? I have never bet on politics. I do know about politics. When I was at uni I was told I understand political issues better than anyone. But I have only bet on horses. I backed two winners when I was at Cheltenham over the weekend. I bet on hurdles mostly, because I know now if I back the fastest horse I will win. steeplechase is too much of luck.
What I meant is the main factor I am looking for in hurdles is speed round the course, there are other things to consider, which I do look at, but I don’t think any of it even form is going to matter as speed on the course distance and conditions. I’m often backing winners with my way of choosing I don’t really care very much about odds, I don’t look for better odds when confident who winner is. Is there a similar way of doing this in political betting? I don’t think so.
Apologies if this doesn’t make any sense as well, I can see polling trends. Gaps between leading parties is what makes a headline, but the poll range for a party is more easy to get trend especially, when tracking on just each poll company - for example The Conservatives with Opinium - 15th Oct 41, 29th Oct 40, 6th Nov 37, 12th Nov 36. That’s a trend isn’t it? but what does trend mean in terms of placing a political bet? Nothing clear to me. obvious example is Lib Dem’s who I vote for I see polling double digits more often in polls recently, so do I place a bet because this trend means more blue boxes knocked over taking the mickey the way the Conservatives drove forklift through boxes? The answers no actually, libdems down again in latest polls, that’s the reason against deciding a political bet to quickly isn’t it?
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
One opinion poll won’t make me place a bet. even if I followed trends, does a trend in polling offer any assurance it’s going to go into real votes when election come? I would say no. media stories and fluctuating polling trends may not actually mean anything to actual votes, making it too much of a gamble and not based on betting talent, so I don’t think is very safe type of betting, it’s optimistic punts. Or worse, wishful thinking bets based on your political supporting isn’t it?
The big factors, it seems to me, are:
Do you know what you are talking about. (Don't bet on Belgian politics unless you understand Belgium. Don't bet on things where you find behaviour incomprehensible)
Do you get human nature, and do you have antennae for the spirit of the times? (C&A at 20/1 was a simple gift of cash from those who didn't to those who did. What was blindingly obvious to some was completely opaque to others).
Can you estimate how groups of people are likely to react.
Can you put your own preferences aside. Do you understand that being right, good, decent, sensible, experienced or qualified collectively is no grounds whatever for being elected by anyone for anything.
No-one has made much money - yet - by betting on Boris to lose.
Do you think general elections results can be known weeks in advance, or if another one was held a couple of weeks later it would have quite a different result? For a great many people it could be random exactly how they vote from one week to the next. Also a general election two weeks later could have a different result and different people taking part in the knowledge how the the first one went?
Could we have three general elections in six weeks and put this to the test?
BTW 'known' is a high bar to clear. People don't offer odds on matters which can 'known' in advance. Especially bookies.
I think he got that idea from a fiction book without realising it was fiction.1 -
Interesting that Shell are not the first big Dutch company to do this in recent years. According to Sky this follows RELX (formally Reed and Elsevier) in 2017 and Unilever in 2018. Good for the UK tax revenue if nothing else.MattW said:
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.williamglenn said:Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name -
@AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/1460177125021990914
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.1 -
I'm sorry, Stocky, but no. No place for them in a grounded North London adventure starting in Waitrose.Stocky said:
Would you keep the breastydumplings in this fantasy one of yours?kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor1 -
Ungoliant is mentioned in the LoTR as well, as the ancestor of ShelobMoonRabbit said:
I say it counts as backstory is story. So you can have Morgoths big spider friend as well.Fysics_Teacher said:
Morgoth wasn’t in LoTR, only the backstory.Malmesbury said:
Morgoth. Sauron was cosplaying Morgoth, and was basically working for him on a zero hours contract.Fysics_Teacher said:
Sauron. Was that a trick question?MoonRabbit said:
Tits and Dragon’s we called it. Can I say that?IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
Out of all the baddies in Lord of the Rings, which one was baddest?0 -
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
I don't get this at all. He is just saying that Taiwan can self determine, surely? I suppose that leaves the door open for PRC to invade and say that was so obviously what the majority of the Taiwanese wanted that a referendum was superfluous.kinabalu said:
Is "murderous, inexcusable and very stupid" a new way of indicating support?williamglenn said:
By similar logic, would he support an invasion of Greece by Turkey to reunite the Ottoman Empire?TheScreamingEagles said:What a tw@
1 -
I wan’t quick enough to think of that. It’s a clear trend! He’s stopped now anyway.Fysics_Teacher said:
If he was wrong nearly every time then you could have cleaned up by betting on the other horse.MoonRabbit said:
I have a friend who used to get right on the winning post so if it was waiting for a photo finish he was sure who had won so rushed to place a bet! But he was wrong nearly every time.algarkirk said:
Sadly having three GEs in 6 weeks fails to test the issue, as the facts of GE 1 alter the circumstances for GE 2 and so on - as you acknowledge. You would need access to parallel universes to try it out simultaneously but with the same electorate. The technology for this is unavailable. The next best technology available is Sir John Curtice, but he only tells you the result after the polls have closed.MoonRabbit said:
That’s a really good point, am I to some degree betting on Libdems because I vote for them.algarkirk said:
A very interesting discussion. All betting is different. General election betting based on any number of opinion polls now is like betting on a horse race to take place in 2 year's time on the basis of yesterday's race result.MoonRabbit said:
I accept your apology ping. I am a real human. Why would I want to be a bot?ping said:
With respect, and I’m sorry if I’m insulting a real human, but your post reads like it’s written by a (spam?)bot.MoonRabbit said:Political Betting. I never considered it before because I didn’t think how it would work. It makes more sense to me now thinking election is a race - can you in political betting work out who will win and back the winner? I have never bet on politics. I do know about politics. When I was at uni I was told I understand political issues better than anyone. But I have only bet on horses. I backed two winners when I was at Cheltenham over the weekend. I bet on hurdles mostly, because I know now if I back the fastest horse I will win. steeplechase is too much of luck.
What I meant is the main factor I am looking for in hurdles is speed round the course, there are other things to consider, which I do look at, but I don’t think any of it even form is going to matter as speed on the course distance and conditions. I’m often backing winners with my way of choosing I don’t really care very much about odds, I don’t look for better odds when confident who winner is. Is there a similar way of doing this in political betting? I don’t think so.
Apologies if this doesn’t make any sense as well, I can see polling trends. Gaps between leading parties is what makes a headline, but the poll range for a party is more easy to get trend especially, when tracking on just each poll company - for example The Conservatives with Opinium - 15th Oct 41, 29th Oct 40, 6th Nov 37, 12th Nov 36. That’s a trend isn’t it? but what does trend mean in terms of placing a political bet? Nothing clear to me. obvious example is Lib Dem’s who I vote for I see polling double digits more often in polls recently, so do I place a bet because this trend means more blue boxes knocked over taking the mickey the way the Conservatives drove forklift through boxes? The answers no actually, libdems down again in latest polls, that’s the reason against deciding a political bet to quickly isn’t it?
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
One opinion poll won’t make me place a bet. even if I followed trends, does a trend in polling offer any assurance it’s going to go into real votes when election come? I would say no. media stories and fluctuating polling trends may not actually mean anything to actual votes, making it too much of a gamble and not based on betting talent, so I don’t think is very safe type of betting, it’s optimistic punts. Or worse, wishful thinking bets based on your political supporting isn’t it?
The big factors, it seems to me, are:
Do you know what you are talking about. (Don't bet on Belgian politics unless you understand Belgium. Don't bet on things where you find behaviour incomprehensible)
Do you get human nature, and do you have antennae for the spirit of the times? (C&A at 20/1 was a simple gift of cash from those who didn't to those who did. What was blindingly obvious to some was completely opaque to others).
Can you estimate how groups of people are likely to react.
Can you put your own preferences aside. Do you understand that being right, good, decent, sensible, experienced or qualified collectively is no grounds whatever for being elected by anyone for anything.
No-one has made much money - yet - by betting on Boris to lose.
Do you think general elections results can be known weeks in advance, or if another one was held a couple of weeks later it would have quite a different result? For a great many people it could be random exactly how they vote from one week to the next. Also a general election two weeks later could have a different result and different people taking part in the knowledge how the the first one went?
Could we have three general elections in six weeks and put this to the test?
BTW 'known' is a high bar to clear. People don't offer odds on matters which can 'known' in advance. Especially bookies.
I think he got that idea from a fiction book without realising it was fiction.0 -
Interesting, this is the one charge I'd have thought the prosecution might have had a chance of sticking...
BREAKING: Court finds Kyle Rittenhouse lawfully carried AR-15 on the night of August 25, 2020 in Kenosha, WI0 -
My sister in law has it currently. More inconvenience than actual illness...Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
OTOH they can be found in the seasonal dim sum fridge, surely? (Getting hungry just thinking of dim sum.)kinabalu said:
I'm sorry, Stocky, but no. No place for them in a grounded North London adventure starting in Waitrose.Stocky said:
Would you keep the breastydumplings in this fantasy one of yours?kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor0 -
Rest assured, there will be no plan b or no lockdown.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
1 -
Good day today, I'm headed in the right direction finally9
-
Yes, that has the right sort of vibe. Not sure about this 'intending to vote LibDem' thing from you btw. That's a pretty odd way to introduce yourself. Most people try and make themselves look more exciting than they really are.MoonRabbit said:
The Lion, the witch and the cheese counter.kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor1 -
Jessop gets all the fame (*), but this stoker survived five wrecks, including the Titanic and Britannic:Selebian said:Philip_Thompson said:
Not many people can have come so close to a suicide bomber's explosion and lived to tell the tale.dixiedean said:
Even more remarkable that the prognosis is so good.Philip_Thompson said:
Possibly, although given the windscreen was blown out in the explosion, I suspect it was more likely the seat and headrest etc that provided the initial protection.Foxy said:
Most cars have child locks that do that for the back. Perspex barrier to passengers might have helped too.OldKingCole said:
I THINK, although I may well be wrong, that on many taxis the driver can lock the passenger doors remotely. Stops people doing a runner and so on.TOPPING said:
Hmm.Philip_Thompson said:
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.TOPPING said:
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.IanB2 said:
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.TOPPING said:
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.IanB2 said:
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.CarlottaVance said:
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospitaltlg86 said:
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.Pulpstar said:
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?ping said:“Liverpool Women's Hospital explosion declared a terror incident“
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59291095
But then…
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
But we shall see.
Remarkable he survived though considering it does seem he was still in the vehicle when it happened despite earlier reports.
Not "lifechanging". Which I don't like as a term, but can see the medical utility.
Not sure how having survived a suicide bomb in the back of your car can be anything other than lifechanging.
Would certainly give me pause for thought.
Remarkable. Weirdly both extremely unfortunate and extremely fortunate simultaneously.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violet_Jessop
Was on the Titanic's two sister ships (and the Titanic as well) with a collision on one and sinking of the other.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_John_Priest
(*) And so she should; what a wonderful surname.
1 -
He is engaging in desperate whataboutery so that he can say that the US is worse than China (because of invading Iraq) if China attacks Taiwan, so that he had an excuse for not taking sides in a China-US conflict over Taiwan.IshmaelZ said:
I don't get this at all. He is just saying that Taiwan can self determine, surely? I suppose that leaves the door open for PRC to invade and say that was so obviously what the majority of the Taiwanese wanted that a referendum was superfluous.kinabalu said:
Is "murderous, inexcusable and very stupid" a new way of indicating support?williamglenn said:
By similar logic, would he support an invasion of Greece by Turkey to reunite the Ottoman Empire?TheScreamingEagles said:What a tw@
It's moral cowardice.0 -
If it gets up above 55000 it will get a little unnerving. At the moment it is just irritating.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
So for perspective a Covid death rate of 0.001%, the vaccines and boosters are still workingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
Booster efficacy against infection looks excellent, so just a case of rolling down the ages for this winter.MaxPB said:
Rest assured, there will be no plan b or no lockdown.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
Anything before the “but” does not count.kinabalu said:
Is "murderous, inexcusable and very stupid" a new way of indicating support?williamglenn said:
By similar logic, would he support an invasion of Greece by Turkey to reunite the Ottoman Empire?TheScreamingEagles said:What a tw@
0 -
The poshest seats in the country are generally no longer safe Tory seats but Tory-LD marginals now after Brexit eg that includes Esher and Walton, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Finchley and Golders Green, Richmond Park, Oxford West and Abingdon, Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etcalgarkirk said:
Or you could say, looking at this:IanB2 said:
Because there are zillions of people who'd like to see the LibDems running the country but are put off at a GE because the current system forces a choice between Tory and Labour and frightens them into not 'wasting' their vote, obvs.MoonRabbit said:So who thinks Lib Dem’s will win the North Shropshire bi election?
Voting against government in mid term but for them again with little change from last general election happens a lot doesn’t it? But why do voters do this?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
that there are lots of posh seats where people vote LD is just the right numbers to both feel good and make sure there is a Tory government that won't bash the rich.0 -
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.0 -
Yes, I’m not freaking out. But I was enjoying the 18 days of descending numbers…Cookie said:
If it gets up above 55000 it will get a little unnerving. At the moment it is just irritating.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
1 -
I stand corrected.Malmesbury said:
He gets mentioned at the Council - and that Sauron is just a flunky.Fysics_Teacher said:
Morgoth wasn’t in LoTR, only the backstory.Malmesbury said:
Morgoth. Sauron was cosplaying Morgoth, and was basically working for him on a zero hours contract.Fysics_Teacher said:
Sauron. Was that a trick question?MoonRabbit said:
Tits and Dragon’s we called it. Can I say that?IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
Out of all the baddies in Lord of the Rings, which one was baddest?0 -
Yes, a Catch 22, that. To be a serious regular winning punter you need lots of accounts but if you're a serious regular winning punter you can't have them.Stocky said:
If you want to be a serious punter, you must have accounts with all bookies and exchanges to efficiently seek the best odds. Unfortunately, I have four trad book who limit my stakes to paltry sums.MoonRabbit said:
Thanks for the tip! I have the Paddy Power app. This may be where some bookies better for different types of betting?Stocky said:
You can get 7/2 with William Hill. Golden rule: always take the best odds. (You may get even better on the exchanges.)MoonRabbit said:
I understand, but the pattern is give government majority, give them lots of disapproval, then give them another majority or even bigger one. To me that doesn’t make sense. Is it just me?state_go_away said:
Because they know that voting for somebody else in by elections etc will not change a government - they just want to voice disapproval .MoonRabbit said:So who thinks Lib Dem’s will win the North Shropshire bi election?
Voting against government in mid term but for them again with little change from last general election happens a lot doesn’t it? But why do voters do this?
Paddy Power has Libdems 5-2 so I will place my first political bet. Because I think there is going to be obvious vote of disapproval. But if it was a general election I would bet Conservatives for another majority I think.
https://www.paddypower.com/politics0 -
Can't be. I was shouted down on here for questioning the "its on the wane, all over, Boris dun gud" narrarive.Pulpstar said:
Basically back up to a fortnight ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
3 -
Pulpstar said:
Interesting, this is the one charge I'd have thought the prosecution might have had a chance of sticking...
BREAKING: Court finds Kyle Rittenhouse lawfully carried AR-15 on the night of August 25, 2020 in Kenosha, WI
Apparently they forgot to get expert testimony on the length of the barrel. No testimony, no evidence, no conviction.0 -
your avatar is brilliant. Love your horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:Good day today, I'm headed in the right direction finally
Your using a staple avatar. 😻0 -
Yes, I still don't understand the logic of waiting 6 months, they should really go for 5 months and do all over 18s.Pulpstar said:
Booster efficacy against infection looks excellent, so just a case of rolling down the ages for this winter.MaxPB said:
Rest assured, there will be no plan b or no lockdown.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
I've been eligible for almost a whole day and *still* no text message from the quacks. Bloody NHS.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.0 -
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.0 -
Have you been up Kinabalu? As you were looking up, did you think it looked like a chicken?kinabalu said:
Yes, that has the right sort of vibe. Not sure about this 'intending to vote LibDem' thing from you btw. That's a pretty odd way to introduce yourself. Most people try and make themselves look more exciting than they really are.MoonRabbit said:
The Lion, the witch and the cheese counter.kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor0 -
NHS website hasn't updated for 40+ @ 6 months yet. Did Bozza say when the system was updating ?MaxPB said:
Yes, I still don't understand the logic of waiting 6 months, they should really go for 5 months and do all over 18s.Pulpstar said:
Booster efficacy against infection looks excellent, so just a case of rolling down the ages for this winter.MaxPB said:
Rest assured, there will be no plan b or no lockdown.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed0 -
Monday, but backend updates will probably be done on Friday as usual meaning early birds can get appointments booked over the weekend.Pulpstar said:
NHS website hasn't updated for 40+ @ 6 months yet. Did Bozza say when the system was updating ?MaxPB said:
Yes, I still don't understand the logic of waiting 6 months, they should really go for 5 months and do all over 18s.Pulpstar said:
Booster efficacy against infection looks excellent, so just a case of rolling down the ages for this winter.MaxPB said:
Rest assured, there will be no plan b or no lockdown.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
Ah those same experts who assured us of at least 100k cases without NPIs and called our July unlockdown a "dangerous experiment". Those experts?RochdalePioneers said:
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.1 -
Also the worst day yet in Hungary. Explosive, exponential growth
Hungary, of course, used a whole lot of Sputnik and Sinopharm. May be regretting that now0 -
What facts are we missing? To the government's credit there is an awful lot of data transparency in relation to this. We know there has been a series of peaks and troughs in cases since unlocking, rather than unconstrained exponential growth. We know the booster jab improves protection very significantly, which is not yet baked into the numbers. We know hospitalisations have remained well below previous peaks.RochdalePioneers said:
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.
In any case, the decision on Plan B is made by politicians, not scientists.0 -
I thought the "Covid is done" celebrations here were premature, but I also think it's too soon to worry excessively. Basically, as Foxy said the other day, cases are bobbing along at a fairly high level, deaths are pretty low, but hospitalisation remains a serious obstacle for the nHS working properly. Essentially we've moved from having a major death threat for most people to a major capacity threat for our health services. A bit of Plan B wouldn't do any harm, especially reviving the wfh push where practical.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
There has been serious pushback at one place that I know where younger, more junior staff were asked to return to the office. They really don't want to.2 -
That's a couple of No's there. It's still a possible, if I ever get back to Malaysia, but I think I might struggle now. Eg I chickened out of Mam Tor this year. Went for a gentler Tor instead, so gentle it wasn't even a Tor, and was blowing hard and slightly dizzy by halfway on that.MoonRabbit said:
Have you been up Kinabalu? As you were looking up, did you think it looked like a chicken?kinabalu said:
Yes, that has the right sort of vibe. Not sure about this 'intending to vote LibDem' thing from you btw. That's a pretty odd way to introduce yourself. Most people try and make themselves look more exciting than they really are.MoonRabbit said:
The Lion, the witch and the cheese counter.kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor0 -
Exceptional stuff from Labour. Big poll lead? Time to send respects and condolences to the family of a suicide bomber who tried to attack a rememberance sunday service.0
-
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed1 -
There are always alternatives. Science cannot answer political questions.RochdalePioneers said:
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.0 -
My grandson (12) and his father have been tested positive today here in WalesLeon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
My granddaughter at Leeds University is unwell and waiting testing
My two younger grandchildren (10) and (8) again here in Wales were sick last night and they are awaiting test results
And my wife's 82nd birthday party on thursday has been cancelled, and we are keeping ourselves to ourselves !!0 -
You need to run the lengths and walk the widths.kinabalu said:
That's a couple of No's there. It's still a possible, if I ever get back to Malaysia, but I think I might struggle now. Eg I chickened out of Mam Tor this year. Went for a gentler Tor instead, so gentle it wasn't even a Tor, and was blowing hard and slightly dizzy by halfway on that.MoonRabbit said:
Have you been up Kinabalu? As you were looking up, did you think it looked like a chicken?kinabalu said:
Yes, that has the right sort of vibe. Not sure about this 'intending to vote LibDem' thing from you btw. That's a pretty odd way to introduce yourself. Most people try and make themselves look more exciting than they really are.MoonRabbit said:
The Lion, the witch and the cheese counter.kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
Not a chicken sorry, a cock. The rock face at the top. Not the summit, the bit at the very top. I thought it did. ;o0 -
Bu ... however after the but he says it's a matter for the Taiwanese. What's the problem with that?Fysics_Teacher said:
Anything before the “but” does not count.kinabalu said:
Is "murderous, inexcusable and very stupid" a new way of indicating support?williamglenn said:
By similar logic, would he support an invasion of Greece by Turkey to reunite the Ottoman Empire?TheScreamingEagles said:What a tw@
0 -
I hope you are right. I am not quite as convinced as you, but I am not soiling myself, eitherMaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed1 -
Lol the person who was quoted saying "we could hit 100k a day" was Health Secretary Sajid Javed. As always when we avoid the worst scenarios that exist people attack the need for scenario modelling.MaxPB said:
Ah those same experts who assured us of at least 100k cases without NPIs and called our July unlockdown a "dangerous experiment". Those experts?RochdalePioneers said:
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.
The simple reality is that a few people on here including your good self think you know better because your view is always the correct view (the Ballestre Edict).0 -
Considering how the Netherlands was hit in the first waves and their vaccine roll out coverage is as good as ours on Worldometer, I don't think there will be much difference on herd immunity.MaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed0 -
I think people were saying that Covid is done as a national emergency as it becomes endemic and we live with a new flavour of viral infection now, thanks to the jabs, not dissimilar from "influenza and pneumonia" in terms of lethality.NickPalmer said:
I thought the "Covid is done" celebrations here were premature, but I also think it's too soon to worry excessively. Basically, as Foxy said the other day, cases are bobbing along at a fairly high level, deaths are pretty low, but hospitalisation remains a serious obstacle for the nHS working properly. Essentially we've moved from having a major death threat for most people to a major capacity threat for our health services. A bit of Plan B wouldn't do any harm, especially reviving the wfh push where practical.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
There has been serious pushback at one place that I know where younger, more junior staff were asked to return to the office. They really don't want to.
And as such to be lived with, with the NHS ensuring as best it can that it accommodates patients with Covid just as it has done and does for patients with influenza and pneumonia.
I don't think anyone thinks or has said on here that Covid itself is over.3 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59293546
“Rosemead Preparatory School and Nursery, which charges up to £4,920 a term, teaches children between the ages of two and 11.“
I’d be livid if I was paying those kind of fees and yet the bloody roof falls in.0 -
But we have had a high case rate through the summer, and Covid has ripped through our kids. That’s not true of the Netherlands (or other continental countries). That is the theory underlying UK herd immunityFoxy said:
Considering how the Netherlands was hit in the first waves and their vaccine roll out coverage is as good as ours on Worldometer, I don't think there will be much difference on herd immunity.MaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed0 -
The data is all of the performance data within the NHS. We won't be pulling the Plan B lever for any other reason than to prevent a swamping of the health service. We know it is in a much worse position than 12 months ago so a smaller surge in hospitalisation would do it.Ratters said:
What facts are we missing? To the government's credit there is an awful lot of data transparency in relation to this. We know there has been a series of peaks and troughs in cases since unlocking, rather than unconstrained exponential growth. We know the booster jab improves protection very significantly, which is not yet baked into the numbers. We know hospitalisations have remained well below previous peaks.RochdalePioneers said:
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.
In any case, the decision on Plan B is made by politicians, not scientists.
As for politicians making decisions, its likely my spectral brain not linking inconsistencies. Either we are following the science or politicians make the decisions. The same people have make the two clashing positions at different times to suit themselves.0 -
Then why the “but”?kinabalu said:
Bu ... however after the but he says it's a matter for the Taiwanese. What's the problem with that?Fysics_Teacher said:
Anything before the “but” does not count.kinabalu said:
Is "murderous, inexcusable and very stupid" a new way of indicating support?williamglenn said:
By similar logic, would he support an invasion of Greece by Turkey to reunite the Ottoman Empire?TheScreamingEagles said:What a tw@
0 -
Wise move to keep the birthday party intimate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My grandson (12) and his father have been tested positive today here in WalesLeon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
My granddaughter at Leeds University is unwell and waiting testing
My two younger grandchildren (10) and (8) again here in Wales were sick last night and they are awaiting test results
And my wife's 82nd birthday party on thursday has been cancelled, and we are keeping ourselves to ourselves !!
A cousins estranged husband is on CPAP up north. I suspect that he was an antivaxxer.1 -
It will be 'over' - as in Covid become background rather than news - by Feb imo. And I think there's little chance of a plan B being activated. But it's crazy to rule it out. If the NHS gets too stressed to maintain essential minimum standards the govt should act. Course they should. It's what they're there for.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.1 -
It cannot be much more intimate than my wife of 57 years and myself home alone !!!!!!!Foxy said:
Wise move to keep the birthday party intimate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My grandson (12) and his father have been tested positive today here in WalesLeon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
My granddaughter at Leeds University is unwell and waiting testing
My two younger grandchildren (10) and (8) again here in Wales were sick last night and they are awaiting test results
And my wife's 82nd birthday party on thursday has been cancelled, and we are keeping ourselves to ourselves !!
A cousins estranged husband is on CPAP up north. I suspect that he was an antivaxxer.
And we have both been double vaccinated, boosted and flu vaccinated0 -
I am hoping it is more than theory.Leon said:
But we have had a high case rate through the summer, and Covid has ripped through our kids. That’s not true of the Netherlands (or other continental countries). That is the theory underlying UK herd immunityFoxy said:
Considering how the Netherlands was hit in the first waves and their vaccine roll out coverage is as good as ours on Worldometer, I don't think there will be much difference on herd immunity.MaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed
Covid tends laugh in the face of explication.
Meanwhile, I need to figure out how to get a booster shot after 5, not 6 months, because I am leaving the country two weeks before my 6 week milestone…0 -
Not that estranged if you, his estranged wife's cousin, know his medical condition.Foxy said:
Wise move to keep the birthday party intimate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My grandson (12) and his father have been tested positive today here in WalesLeon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
My granddaughter at Leeds University is unwell and waiting testing
My two younger grandchildren (10) and (8) again here in Wales were sick last night and they are awaiting test results
And my wife's 82nd birthday party on thursday has been cancelled, and we are keeping ourselves to ourselves !!
A cousins estranged husband is on CPAP up north. I suspect that he was an antivaxxer.0 -
If it comes to it they must try vaxports and masks before any kind of lockdown or WFHkinabalu said:
It will be 'over' - as in Covid become background rather than news - by Feb imo. And I think there's little chance of a plan B being activated. But it's crazy to rule it out. If the NHS gets too stressed to maintain essential minimum standards the govt should act. Course they should. It's what they're there for.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.
Why should I give up my freedoms because of idiot antivaxxers? Why should our cities and our economy take another massive hit because of THEM?0 -
We've had 7-8m infections in England since the start of May according to the ONS. That's the difference, Foxy. Countries that have tried to delay their exit waves to a significant degree or have got poor vaccination rates are seeing gigantic spikes in their infection rates as winter gives all respiratory viruses transmission advantages.Foxy said:
Considering how the Netherlands was hit in the first waves and their vaccine roll out coverage is as good as ours on Worldometer, I don't think there will be much difference on herd immunity.MaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed0 -
New Thread
0 -
I love dim sum too. Mind you, there's not much I don't like on the food front. I'm the very opposite of a picky eater.Carnyx said:
OTOH they can be found in the seasonal dim sum fridge, surely? (Getting hungry just thinking of dim sum.)kinabalu said:
I'm sorry, Stocky, but no. No place for them in a grounded North London adventure starting in Waitrose.Stocky said:
Would you keep the breastydumplings in this fantasy one of yours?kinabalu said:
I'm sure it was big for a good reason. It's me at fault really. The further something gets from the here & the now, stuff I can relate to, the better it has to be for me to be able to get into it. Eg my perfect drama would be set in 2021 and take place in North London, with the lead character a 61 year old bloke who goes to Waitrose most days, and maybe on one of those days falls into an adventure, but a grounded adventure, not a fantastical one.IshmaelZ said:
Trouble is it's 3 different things. Mainly, and the best bit, it's medieval dynastic warfare with no fantasy element. Secondly there's the white walkers in the north which are sort of Tolkienish and the acceptable face of fantasy to me. And thirdly there's that unbearably silly woman with her sodding dragons.kinabalu said:
Just totally not my scene. I can like fantasy but not of that type.Stocky said:
Why?kinabalu said:
You won't. I will be. As one by one the stars fall out the sky I'll still be giving it a miss.kjh said:
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.Stocky said:
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.Leon said:
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusingStocky said:@TOPPING
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor1 -
The family WhatsApp is quite some Bush telegraph.TOPPING said:
Not that estranged if you, his estranged wife's cousin, know his medical condition.Foxy said:
Wise move to keep the birthday party intimate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My grandson (12) and his father have been tested positive today here in WalesLeon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
My granddaughter at Leeds University is unwell and waiting testing
My two younger grandchildren (10) and (8) again here in Wales were sick last night and they are awaiting test results
And my wife's 82nd birthday party on thursday has been cancelled, and we are keeping ourselves to ourselves !!
A cousins estranged husband is on CPAP up north. I suspect that he was an antivaxxer.0 -
"Following the science" was merely a soundbite to give Boris credibility and make political decisions sound inevitable.RochdalePioneers said:
The data is all of the performance data within the NHS. We won't be pulling the Plan B lever for any other reason than to prevent a swamping of the health service. We know it is in a much worse position than 12 months ago so a smaller surge in hospitalisation would do it.Ratters said:
What facts are we missing? To the government's credit there is an awful lot of data transparency in relation to this. We know there has been a series of peaks and troughs in cases since unlocking, rather than unconstrained exponential growth. We know the booster jab improves protection very significantly, which is not yet baked into the numbers. We know hospitalisations have remained well below previous peaks.RochdalePioneers said:
Plan B is and always was something that the people in the know deploy when in their view there is no alternative. Their view based on science, medical knowledge and in full possession of the facts. It isn't what me and thee who don't know the facts think that matters.Ratters said:
I give it a week before there are loud calls for "Plan B" from the usual suspects.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Keep calm and carry on with booster jabs - we'll be up to a quarter of 12+ population with 3 doses in a few days' time. No need for mask mandates or vaccine passports.
In any case, the decision on Plan B is made by politicians, not scientists.
As for politicians making decisions, its likely my spectral brain not linking inconsistencies. Either we are following the science or politicians make the decisions. The same people have make the two clashing positions at different times to suit themselves.
Science can't tell you how best to implement public policy in such a complex situation. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand the limitations of science.0 -
You will still be eligible if you come and visit the UK so assuming you aren't leaving forever you can book your appointment for when you're around.Gardenwalker said:
I am hoping it is more than theory.Leon said:
But we have had a high case rate through the summer, and Covid has ripped through our kids. That’s not true of the Netherlands (or other continental countries). That is the theory underlying UK herd immunityFoxy said:
Considering how the Netherlands was hit in the first waves and their vaccine roll out coverage is as good as ours on Worldometer, I don't think there will be much difference on herd immunity.MaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed
Covid tends laugh in the face of explication.
Meanwhile, I need to figure out how to get a booster shot after 5, not 6 months, because I am leaving the country two weeks before my 6 week milestone…0 -
He was probably a superhero, but didn't know it yet... (With apologies to M. Night Shyamalan).Philip_Thompson said:
There was a child in America who survived a plane crash that killed his mom, brother and sister only to then survive a second plane crash years later that claimed the life of his dad and stepmom.tlg86 said:
I can't think of which crashes they were, but I have a feeling someone was unfortunate enough to be involved in two train crashes.Stark_Dawning said:
There was a story several years ago about a guy who, bizarrely, just happened to have been at the scene of three separate IRA bombings.Philip_Thompson said:
Not many people can have come so close to a suicide bomber's explosion and lived to tell the tale.dixiedean said:
Even more remarkable that the prognosis is so good.Philip_Thompson said:
Possibly, although given the windscreen was blown out in the explosion, I suspect it was more likely the seat and headrest etc that provided the initial protection.Foxy said:
Most cars have child locks that do that for the back. Perspex barrier to passengers might have helped too.OldKingCole said:
I THINK, although I may well be wrong, that on many taxis the driver can lock the passenger doors remotely. Stops people doing a runner and so on.TOPPING said:
Hmm.Philip_Thompson said:
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.TOPPING said:
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.IanB2 said:
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.TOPPING said:
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.IanB2 said:
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.CarlottaVance said:
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospitaltlg86 said:
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.Pulpstar said:
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?ping said:“Liverpool Women's Hospital explosion declared a terror incident“
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59291095
But then…
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
But we shall see.
Remarkable he survived though considering it does seem he was still in the vehicle when it happened despite earlier reports.
Not "lifechanging". Which I don't like as a term, but can see the medical utility.
Not sure how having survived a suicide bomb in the back of your car can be anything other than lifechanging.
Would certainly give me pause for thought.
Remarkable. Weirdly both extremely unfortunate and extremely fortunate simultaneously.
The estimated odds of surviving two plane crashes that claim the lives of multiple people is one in more than a quadrillion.
https://johnolearyinspires.com/podcast/archive/austin-hatch-312/0 -
BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120
"A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.
The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.
The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."
In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
A No
Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."1 -
Sure, I get the theory, but apart from being a vector children's cases are irrelevant in nearly all cases.MaxPB said:
We've had 7-8m infections in England since the start of May according to the ONS. That's the difference, Foxy. Countries that have tried to delay their exit waves to a significant degree or have got poor vaccination rates are seeing gigantic spikes in their infection rates as winter gives all respiratory viruses transmission advantages.Foxy said:
Considering how the Netherlands was hit in the first waves and their vaccine roll out coverage is as good as ours on Worldometer, I don't think there will be much difference on herd immunity.MaxPB said:
That's the difference between what's happening in countries without any real natural immunity reserves and the UK. All of them that have tried to displace infections from the summer are going to have a really difficult time of it now.Leon said:Nearly 20,000 cases in Holland. By far their worst day yet, in all the pandemic
I have a feeling their Xmas will get kyboshed
We are seeing a lot of breakthrough cases in the double vaxxed. We have 60 or so inpatients in that subgroup, bad enough to be inpatients. I don't think herd immunity is as robust as some make out.0 -
We agree on something here. I'm pretty sure the decision is taken to ride it out now and it'd take quite a plot twist to alter that.MaxPB said:
Rest assured, there will be no plan b or no lockdown.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
I'm not sure I'd call Tunbridge Wells (maj 14,700) or Chelsea and Fulham (maj 11,200) exactly marginal. Some of the others (Finchley, Cheltenham) have been marginals long before Brexit, while Guildford and Winchester have been LibDem in the early 2000s.HYUFD said:
The poshest seats in the country are generally no longer safe Tory seats but Tory-LD marginals now after Brexit eg that includes Esher and Walton, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Finchley and Golders Green, Richmond Park, Oxford West and Abingdon, Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etcalgarkirk said:
Or you could say, looking at this:IanB2 said:
Because there are zillions of people who'd like to see the LibDems running the country but are put off at a GE because the current system forces a choice between Tory and Labour and frightens them into not 'wasting' their vote, obvs.MoonRabbit said:So who thinks Lib Dem’s will win the North Shropshire bi election?
Voting against government in mid term but for them again with little change from last general election happens a lot doesn’t it? But why do voters do this?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
that there are lots of posh seats where people vote LD is just the right numbers to both feel good and make sure there is a Tory government that won't bash the rich.0 -
At what point do the Netherlands (and Ireland) realise they’ve been sold down the river by the EU on corporation tax rates and tax avoidance strategies?Malmesbury said:
The Shell move is interesting, since they tried this once before and were beaten back by a massive storm of protest in politics in the Netherlands.TOPPING said:
Naughty. It was nearly 10x that.MaxPB said:
You haven't? JP Morgan moved about 15 roles out of London and it got a lot of play.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have never seen the movement of eight employees be hyped up like this.Sandpit said:
Err, wasn’t #FBPE Twitter insisting that the movement of company headquarters was only ever going to be in the other direction?williamglenn said:Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name -
@AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/1460177125021990914
Edit - Unilever was another one, it got loads of airtime when it was heading to the Netherlands and suddenly it wasn't so it stopped making the news.
Not a huge dent in the global JP workforce, that said.
Interesting that they think they should try again.1 -
I'd check your maths there...HYUFD said:
So for perspective a Covid death rate of 0.001%, the vaccines and boosters are still workingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
0 -
This thread not making it to 16 November is moving up the betting. But DYOR
3 -
Half term effects and now unwinding again. The arguments about HI still stand - most kids have had it, we are boosting the elderly (and soon down to 40-49 year olds) and we have essentially no restictions in play, and the cases are basically wobbling around at 40K a day.Leon said:
Yes, I’m not freaking out. But I was enjoying the 18 days of descending numbers…Cookie said:
If it gets up above 55000 it will get a little unnerving. At the moment it is just irritating.Leon said:
This uptick in cases is getting a little unnervingBig_G_NorthWales said:39,705 and 47 deaths
Its likely that the boosters will have a decent effect on hospitals and soon.0 -
Both Tunbridge Wells and Chelsea and Fulham are in the top 50 LD target seats and not even in the top 100 safest Conservative seats now, which they were comfortably in even in 1997. Indeed in 1997 Kensington and Chelsea was the safest Conservative seat in the country after Huntingdon.JohnO said:
I'm not sure I'd call Tunbridge Wells (maj 14,700) or Chelsea and Fulham (maj 11,200) exactly marginal. Some of the others (Finchley, Cheltenham) have been marginals long before Brexit, while Guildford and Winchester have been LibDem in the early 2000s.HYUFD said:
The poshest seats in the country are generally no longer safe Tory seats but Tory-LD marginals now after Brexit eg that includes Esher and Walton, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Finchley and Golders Green, Richmond Park, Oxford West and Abingdon, Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etcalgarkirk said:
Or you could say, looking at this:IanB2 said:
Because there are zillions of people who'd like to see the LibDems running the country but are put off at a GE because the current system forces a choice between Tory and Labour and frightens them into not 'wasting' their vote, obvs.MoonRabbit said:So who thinks Lib Dem’s will win the North Shropshire bi election?
Voting against government in mid term but for them again with little change from last general election happens a lot doesn’t it? But why do voters do this?
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
that there are lots of posh seats where people vote LD is just the right numbers to both feel good and make sure there is a Tory government that won't bash the rich.
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There is only so much that can be gained by micro-analysing recent COVID data, but I was curios so calculated the change in reported cases in England for each day compared to the same day a week earlier.
1. Monday: 32,081
2. Tuesday: 28,531
3. Wednesday: 31,317
4. Thursday: 30,166
5. Friday: 28,490
6. Saturday: 26,250
7. Sunday: 23,779 -20%
8. Monday: 24,979 -28%
9. Tuesday: 27,872 -2%
10. Wednesday: 35,541 +12%
11. Thursday: 35,472 +15%
12. Friday: 33,155 +15%
13. Saturday: 33,493 +12%
14. Sunday: 29,404 +19%
15. Monday: 31,440 +22%
I don't think this shows much, but as I have typed it out I thought I would share.1 -
This is because the Judge decided the law was to complicated to understandPulpstar said:Interesting, this is the one charge I'd have thought the prosecution might have had a chance of sticking...
BREAKING: Court finds Kyle Rittenhouse lawfully carried AR-15 on the night of August 25, 2020 in Kenosha, WI0
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