Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
You need one (or remote detonation) if you go down the sewing-them-in-to-the-vest route
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
We haven't but other places have when the Suicide bombers are, say, not thought to be committed / suicidal enough.
” McLaren Group is aware of a news media report stating it has been sold to Audi. This is wholly inaccurate and McLaren is seeking to have the story removed.
“McLaren’s technology strategy has always involved ongoing discussions and collaboration with relevant partners and suppliers, including other carmakers, however, there has been no change in the ownership structure of the McLaren Group.
Merger then!
(Many years ago I was working on a merger on behalf on a client, Saturday afternoon some of the trade papers and sundays picked up on it, saying company x is about to buy company z, so I helped draft a response saying, company x has no plans on buying company y, which was true as a merger isn't an acquisition.)
"No plans" is a good one too. Even an intention isn't a plan.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
Which shows the absolute purity of the evil inside these Islamist wankers
You can at a stretch say a Remembrance Service is a kind of “military” target. Lots of ex soldiers etc. Killing them would still be brutal murder but there is a cruel rationale
But then he couldn’t get to the service, so the suicide bomber decides “hospital”? And a women’s hospital at that
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
Thanks for the further Italy/Austria/Germany road trip advice @IanB2@MattW@malcolmg - much appreciated!
The only tough bit is the long day at each end when you have to pay €40 for the pleasure of driving for hours looking at precisely nothing in northern France (or save the toll and fight with the lorries going through Belgium).
But I do have a very nice secret stopover in France, if you need one.
That would be great - always looking for fresh suggestions for a nice stop in France.
Our current tentative plan is a couple of days driving to Lake Como via Chamonix, then back via Austria, maybe stopping there for 3-4 nights to explore the locality.
In the past we have stopped at Grindelwald in Switzerland which we absolutely love but we fancy something different this time. I may go for the German alps rather than Austria on the way back, as per the PB suggestions.
Political Betting. I never considered it before because I didn’t think how it would work. It makes more sense to me now thinking election is a race - can you in political betting work out who will win and back the winner? I have never bet on politics. I do know about politics. When I was at uni I was told I understand political issues better than anyone. But I have only bet on horses. I backed two winners when I was at Cheltenham over the weekend. I bet on hurdles mostly, because I know now if I back the fastest horse I will win. steeplechase is too much of luck.
What I meant is the main factor I am looking for in hurdles is speed round the course, there are other things to consider, which I do look at, but I don’t think any of it even form is going to matter as speed on the course distance and conditions. I’m often backing winners with my way of choosing I don’t really care very much about odds, I don’t look for better odds when confident who winner is. Is there a similar way of doing this in political betting? I don’t think so.
There is much more mispricing in politics than horses/footie and this is a good place to identify it. Most recently, lots of people made a packet in Chesham and Amersham at 20/1, tipped by the site owner.
I identified it as a good value loser, and cashed out a £5 bet for £6.20. Genius decision.
£1.20? Seriously? If I tell you which horse is going to win a hurdles race I would expect more than a five pound bet on it!
I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course.
Correct me where I am wrong, you are saying there is money to be made betting against the market, where the market lacks knowledge?
on other hand this may not be completely right, yes if I am sure betting markets are wrong, it means I can bet against them. But not all bets against a market are smart ones, smartest bets are those where you work out who the winner is.When you know what is going to happen and why. And to do that you need to know something.
Is a media narrative founded in something that really matters? Is the media actually objective? If these answers no, it means not only you shouldn’t learn from media but they help you get political betting wrong.
Are opinion polls a measure of public opinion? Not necessarily. For starters it depends if they were scrupulously done to accurate measure of public opinion. And if set up fair are they answered honestly? Not if someone says they don’t know who to vote for despite knowing they will vote and for exactly who. Very honest with you, I done that myself? Sometimes I’m feeling okay to give an opinion sometimes I’m not.
to do good political bets you need to know something, but you can’t trust media or polls to give you that knowledge.
Credo in the Leicester 1 o'clock today?
3rd at 11/4. Beaten out of sight.
If I am sure of a winner this week I’ll tell you so you know how often I get it right.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
another advantage to politics betting is that it is not bent (in the sense that the "actors" are not in it for a betting coup and nto probably that much aware of the betting on it ) - horseracing especially but most other sports as well have a lot of issues with non-tryers, handicap manipulation etc. To win at horse racing you need inside information. In political betting you just need good (public available) information , a chance post by somebody on here and good analysis of that information
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
another advantage to politics betting is that it is not bent (in the sense that the "actors" are not in it for a betting coup and nto probably that much aware of the betting on it ) - horseracing especially but most other sports as well have a lot of issues with non-tryers, handicap manipulation etc
Indeed when political betting is "bent" it tends to be in a way that's profitable for the punters to exploit.
Sports has scandals whereby matches are fixed to suit the bookies. In politics people try to fix the bookies in order to get a political advantage - so laying the fixes can be very profitable.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
Shell up 2% in the market today
Yes, the Cop26 flop was good for them.
Interesting you say that when Exxon's stock is currently trading marginally down in its out of hours trading over the weekend (since their exchange isn't open yet).
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
Shell up 2% in the market today
Yes, the Cop26 flop was good for them.
Interesting you say that when Exxon's stock is currently trading marginally down in its out of hours trading over the weekend (since their exchange isn't open yet).
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Speculating on these things is always dangerous. But my hypothesis fits everything I have seen and heard so far:
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
What's a "point to point" ? Sorry if it's a stupid question.
So far from Moonrabbit all I've really heard is that he/she likes to bet on the nags. I think we should let him/her stay.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Hmm.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
A good example of a golfing bet that is like a lot of politics bets in the sense of publicly available information just waiting to be analysed right by a smart punter is the Hole in One betting coup where shrewd punters knew that in nearly 50% of pro golf tournaments there was a hole in one but also were shrewd enough to know the perception of people and bookies would be that they were very rare .Well they are rare but not that rare in that a pro golfer will get a hole in one 1 in about a 1000 attempts . Given that over a course of a typical golf pro tournament there are about a 1000 attempts at a hole in one (all the par 3s ) then the true odds are about evens . The punters got odds of up to a 100/1 on a hole in one at a tournament from some bookies .
Thanks for the further Italy/Austria/Germany road trip advice @IanB2@MattW@malcolmg - much appreciated!
The only tough bit is the long day at each end when you have to pay €40 for the pleasure of driving for hours looking at precisely nothing in northern France (or save the toll and fight with the lorries going through Belgium).
But I do have a very nice secret stopover in France, if you need one.
That would be great - always looking for fresh suggestions for a nice stop in France.
Our current tentative plan is a couple of days driving to Lake Como via Chamonix, then back via Austria, maybe stopping there for 3-4 nights to explore the locality.
In the past we have stopped at Grindelwald in Switzerland which we absolutely love but we fancy something different this time. I may go for the German alps rather than Austria on the way back, as per the PB suggestions.
Normally Germany has been a stopover for me en route to Italy or Eastern Europe, but the various Austrian and Italian restrictions forced me to replan my trip such that I spent a fortnight in southern Germany this September before being able to travel on. And it was a great place to visit! Near the mountains, both Fussen and Bertchesgaden are exceptional places to stay, and I also enjoyed short stops in Tubingen and Freiburg - both with medieval centres that survived the war.
And if you are able to stop anywhere within a day trip from Garmisch, doing the Zugspitze on a clear day is an amazing, if relatively costly, experience!
My French stop is just south of Laon, if that would be on your route.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Speculating on these things is always dangerous. But my hypothesis fits everything I have seen and heard so far:
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
Let’s see what the news cycle reveals….
Sort of grim if the alleged bomber realised that he wasn't going to be able to get out of the vest before it exploded but asked to be taken to a hospital on the (slim) chance that they might be able to save him.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Hmm.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
But we shall see.
I THINK, although I may well be wrong, that on many taxis the driver can lock the passenger doors remotely. Stops people doing a runner and so on.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
A good example of a golfing bet that is like a lot of politics bets in the sense of publicly available information just waiting to be analysed right by a smart punter is the Hole in One betting coup where shrewd punters knew that in nearly 50% of pro golf tournaments there was a hole in one but also were shrewd enough to know the perception of people and bookies would be that they were very rare .Well they are rare but not that rare in that a pro golfer will get a hole in one 1 in about a 1000 attempts . Given that over a course of a typical golf pro tournament there are about a 1000 attempts at a hole in one (all the par 3s ) then the true odds are about evens . The punters got odds of up to a 100/1 on a hole in one at a tournament from some bookies .
Wasn't this largely before the rise of internet betting and these guys had to drive about the country putting their bets on over the counter?
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Speculating on these things is always dangerous. But my hypothesis fits everything I have seen and heard so far:
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
Let’s see what the news cycle reveals….
Sort of grim if the alleged bomber realised that he wasn't going to be able to get out of the vest before it exploded but asked to be taken to a hospital on the (slim) chance that they might be able to save him.
That’s a possibility I hadn’t thought of. I was assuming he was still looking for somewhere where he could make the maximum impact from the device he was wearing.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
Anecdotally CABx in 'that sort of area' tend to be busier than those in more affluent areas.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
What's a "point to point" ? Sorry if it's a stupid question.
So far from Moonrabbit all I've really heard is that he/she likes to bet on the nags. I think we should let him/her stay.
A point to point is an amateur horse race where the horses have to have a certificate from a (fox) hunt before they can take part. They are not allowed to take part in one without such a certificate, which is signed by the hunt.
It can be (especially in Ireland) a great stepping stone for National Hunt horses to race "under rules" - which means subject to more stringent rules for horse racing.
Our friend moonie is slightly mixing things up with how it all works.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Speculating on these things is always dangerous. But my hypothesis fits everything I have seen and heard so far:
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
Let’s see what the news cycle reveals….
Sort of grim if the alleged bomber realised that he wasn't going to be able to get out of the vest before it exploded but asked to be taken to a hospital on the (slim) chance that they might be able to save him.
Not impossible but unlikely. The state of mind to begin that journey is one which doesn't necessarily lend itself to such a sequence of thought or action.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
I am sure that is true. Back in my days as a Borough councillor, it was clear that those councillors representing the poorer and more multi-ethnic parts of the Borough had a lot more casework concerning benefits and immigration cases than did those of us representing more middle class areas where the most common complains concerned parking, planning and street cleaning.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
What's a "point to point" ? Sorry if it's a stupid question.
So far from Moonrabbit all I've really heard is that he/she likes to bet on the nags. I think we should let him/her stay.
A point to point is an amateur horse race where the horses have to have a certificate from a (fox) hunt before they can take part. They are not allowed to take part in one without such a certificate, which is signed by the hunt.
It can be (especially in Ireland) a great stepping stone for National Hunt horses to race "under rules" - which means subject to more stringent rules for horse racing.
Our friend moonie is slightly mixing things up with how it all works.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
The alternative view is that a lot of MPs would love to have a second job, but the reality is that they are generally of so little ability to influence anything and of such low calibre no-one would pay them anything, particularly on the Labour benches. It might be a good bit of investigative journalism to see how many of them would be interested in a bit of extra income and how they might miraculously find the additional time in their very busy schedule to offer it .
Talking of betting, anyone who has read anything I've written about boxing bets (ie no one) will know that no matter who I think will win, I quite regularly bet on the long outsider because no matter how good someone is supposed to be and how "sure" they are to win, it is still within a punch to upset the odds.
I backed Kiko Martinez for example on Saturday at 19s (bf) to beat Kid Galahad. And for five rounds I was the biggest fool in town. And then Kaboom. He decked Galahad and that was my most successful bet of the year.
19s for one of two boxers in a match is bonkers odds, no matter how carefully picked he was by Eddie Hearn.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
Anecdotally CABx in 'that sort of area' tend to be busier than those in more affluent areas.
Yes. And the diminution of CAB services, along with the total disappearance of many Council facilities can only be making it worse.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Speculating on these things is always dangerous. But my hypothesis fits everything I have seen and heard so far:
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
Let’s see what the news cycle reveals….
Sort of grim if the alleged bomber realised that he wasn't going to be able to get out of the vest before it exploded but asked to be taken to a hospital on the (slim) chance that they might be able to save him.
I’m not against political betting just trying to work out what makes it sensible. After I found this chat room, which is confusing at first because it’s not obviously politics or betting going on in the chat, I looked how to do political betting and it seems it’s betting a hunch on trends that means you spread your political bets with your hunch. The obvious problem I see is where to get objective knowledge from, because media like to give impressions about something that probably won’t matter to votes, and is not factual just rigged up. So do you trust media narrative for a hunch?
The key to understanding Political Betting is that possibly even more than any other form of betting you are betting against other punters and not the bookies.
And other punters are rank rotten at political betting. Because it's not a professional's domain, it is mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
For instance people staked hundreds of millions upon millions of pounds on Donald Trump to win the presidency AFTER the 2020 election. They were still betting on him to win through the Trump Exit Date market into January this year.
During the Scottish Parliament elections John Curtis made a mental slip and said, with only a few seats left to declare, that the SNP were going to win 63 seats when 64 seats were nailed on due to the breakdown of the regional vote. A hugely profitable bet on the seat bands market then ensued.
The 2015 Scottish Constituency betting market profits and Brexit vote are legendary on here.
There is so much inefficiency it is unreal.
Yes I totally agree with that point. It’s not a professionals domain, it’s mostly amateurs backing what they want to happen.
But you are talking about some rather niche examples of mistakes made. Without that, what do you actually have yourself to go on?
You misunderstand. Profitable Political Betting is all about niche examples. Political Betting is not about slow and steady minimal edge application. It is about home run hitting. There are not many events to bet on (which is why there are not professionals) almost every single time there is some stupid angle which you can hit and clean out.
2015 - Absolute sustained disbelief that the SNP would do well 2015/16 Republican nomination - denial that Trump was favourite including Marco Rubio becoming odds on favourite after finishing third in Iowa 2016 - Brexit, in play betting on result night and pundits kept saying the Remain was still in it despite the overwhelming results evidence to the contrary. 2016 - Election night in-play betting as Florida came in 2017 - Sustained disbelief that the Scottish Tories would do well in Scotland despite the sustained polls in their favour. 2017 - Sustained disbelief that Labour were going to do 'well' despite the rapidly closing polls etc, etc
Political Betting is about identifying the absolutely screaming obvious and then having the courage to bet against the crowd and take the money.
It is also about realising that "the market" doesn't know any more than anyone else. It certainly doesn't know more than, say, PB. We should also trust ourselves I mean we talk about it every effing day so damn well should know more about it than random punters.
As for our new arrival @MoonRabbit, I am just shocked that coming to PB for the first time he/she didn't immediately find evidence of politics or betting. Shocked, I tell you.
Also waiting for an explanation of the hurdlers "hidden away at point to points" thing that they identified.
When I was reading it last week there was very little talk about betting or about politics at first. There was lots of talking about breaking news stories and Europe negotiations that I suppose is politics to be honest.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
You said this:
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
What's a "point to point" ? Sorry if it's a stupid question.
So far from Moonrabbit all I've really heard is that he/she likes to bet on the nags. I think we should let him/her stay.
A point to point is an amateur horse race where the horses have to have a certificate from a (fox) hunt before they can take part. They are not allowed to take part in one without such a certificate, which is signed by the hunt.
It can be (especially in Ireland) a great stepping stone for National Hunt horses to race "under rules" - which means subject to more stringent rules for horse racing.
Our friend moonie is slightly mixing things up with how it all works.
Thanks for the very comprehensive answer.
Everyday day's a school day.
Ha! Pleasure - they are great social events also but not everyone's cup of tea on account of the association with hunting.
Mr. Divvie, my understanding is that they're rigged to go off if removal is attempted, and there may also be watchers who can detonate it remotely to stop people with a last minute outbreak of reason from backing out.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
Anecdotally CABx in 'that sort of area' tend to be busier than those in more affluent areas.
Yes. And the diminution of CAB services, along with the total disappearance of many Council facilities can only be making it worse.
It is ironic that a lot of Red Wall Tory MPs now have a lot of casework because austerity cut the services (Citizens Advice) that previously took on that work.
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
Actually I think it was @Leon who mentioned it. Narcos was excellent and I believe that this was supposed to be S4 of that so yes and no. (ie it is probably good stand alone but Narcos is well worth a watch and gives plenty of touch points also.)
Attacker of Middle Eastern background, not known to security services. The second part is worrying which is probably why the terror threat level has been raised while any links are investigated.
What you find on this site are tips from people who are not realising they are giving them .In the sense that many on here know a lot about niche politics (or the seat where they live etc) but not much about betting. If you know about betting you can use information on here to your advantage
I think a lot more people read PB than post. We regularly change markets.
This morning I mentioned a Lay of Starmer Exit Date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets. Very quickly afterwards the 2.6 went up to 2.68. Not a big move, I agree, but I'm convinced there is a link (the price had been stuck at 2.6 for days).
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
A good example of a golfing bet that is like a lot of politics bets in the sense of publicly available information just waiting to be analysed right by a smart punter is the Hole in One betting coup where shrewd punters knew that in nearly 50% of pro golf tournaments there was a hole in one but also were shrewd enough to know the perception of people and bookies would be that they were very rare .Well they are rare but not that rare in that a pro golfer will get a hole in one 1 in about a 1000 attempts . Given that over a course of a typical golf pro tournament there are about a 1000 attempts at a hole in one (all the par 3s ) then the true odds are about evens . The punters got odds of up to a 100/1 on a hole in one at a tournament from some bookies .
Wasn't this largely before the rise of internet betting and these guys had to drive about the country putting their bets on over the counter?
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
I've yet to get to Narcos Mexico - bogged down atm by Start Up, The Shield (ancient as it is but really good) and a few others.
Talking of betting, anyone who has read anything I've written about boxing bets (ie no one) will know that no matter who I think will win, I quite regularly bet on the long outsider because no matter how good someone is supposed to be and how "sure" they are to win, it is still within a punch to upset the odds.
I backed Kiko Martinez for example on Saturday at 19s (bf) to beat Kid Galahad. And for five rounds I was the biggest fool in town. And then Kaboom. He decked Galahad and that was my most successful bet of the year.
Mine was Pedro Acosta to be Moto3 champion at 16/1. I might have tipped it on here; I can't recall. It just about paid for my new GSX-R.
The bookies are incredibly bad at setting odds on motorcycle racing in general. They are obviously just working off recent form and don't really understand what's a Yamaha track or a Ducati track, etc.
They used to be similarly bad at odds setting for pro cycling but have greatly improved in recent years as it got popular in the UK.
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.
I have a theory on MPs casework; like many of my theories, it may be garbage.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
Astute. Equally I would have thought, the cases would tend to be more complex and time-consuming. Issues of poverty, poor housing and health. Which really aren't in an individual MP's gift to solve. And from constituents without the funds to pay for more specialist advice.
Anecdotally CABx in 'that sort of area' tend to be busier than those in more affluent areas.
Yes. And the diminution of CAB services, along with the total disappearance of many Council facilities can only be making it worse.
Indeed; another 'benefit' of the 'kick the b*&&*s when they're down' policies we've seen from Conservative Governments over the past few years.
Talking of betting, anyone who has read anything I've written about boxing bets (ie no one) will know that no matter who I think will win, I quite regularly bet on the long outsider because no matter how good someone is supposed to be and how "sure" they are to win, it is still within a punch to upset the odds.
I backed Kiko Martinez for example on Saturday at 19s (bf) to beat Kid Galahad. And for five rounds I was the biggest fool in town. And then Kaboom. He decked Galahad and that was my most successful bet of the year.
Mine was Pedro Acosta to be Moto3 champion at 16/1. I might have tipped it on here; I can't recall. It just about paid for my new GSX-R.
The bookies are incredibly bad at setting odds on motorcycle racing in general. They are obviously just working off recent form and don't really understand what's a Yamaha track or a Ducati track, etc.
They used to be similarly bad at odds setting for pro cycling but have greatly improved in recent years as it got popular in the UK.
You did tip it here - back in April - I remember - see below.
For some reason I didn't back it. Couldn't find the market I think.
" You can still get 16/1 on Pedro Acosta to win the Moto3 championship which are absurd odds considering how dominant he has been over the first three races. You're basically betting that he won't injure himself in way that keeps him out for 2-3 races."
Talking of betting, anyone who has read anything I've written about boxing bets (ie no one) will know that no matter who I think will win, I quite regularly bet on the long outsider because no matter how good someone is supposed to be and how "sure" they are to win, it is still within a punch to upset the odds.
I backed Kiko Martinez for example on Saturday at 19s (bf) to beat Kid Galahad. And for five rounds I was the biggest fool in town. And then Kaboom. He decked Galahad and that was my most successful bet of the year.
19s for one of two boxers in a match is bonkers odds, no matter how carefully picked he was by Eddie Hearn.
It's why I don't bet on boxing (with the exception of the free money that was McGregor - Mayweather where it was just too much not to bet). Emotionally I would not be able to take the gut punch of a flukey 1-hit knockout.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Speculating on these things is always dangerous. But my hypothesis fits everything I have seen and heard so far:
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
Let’s see what the news cycle reveals….
Sort of grim if the alleged bomber realised that he wasn't going to be able to get out of the vest before it exploded but asked to be taken to a hospital on the (slim) chance that they might be able to save him.
An almost comically charitable take.
I yield to your intimate familiarity with the mindset of a suicide bomber.
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.
It’s not just a very entertaining drama, it also explains how the narcotics industry got so powerful, parasitising entire nations - Mexico, Colombia
Game of Thrones is a hoot, the first 3-4 seasons of Mad Men are excellent (but the later ones much poorer)
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
I've yet to get to Narcos Mexico - bogged down atm by Start Up, The Shield (ancient as it is but really good) and a few others.
The Shield is excellent - under-rated I think. Walton Goggins is great.
Talking of betting, anyone who has read anything I've written about boxing bets (ie no one) will know that no matter who I think will win, I quite regularly bet on the long outsider because no matter how good someone is supposed to be and how "sure" they are to win, it is still within a punch to upset the odds.
I backed Kiko Martinez for example on Saturday at 19s (bf) to beat Kid Galahad. And for five rounds I was the biggest fool in town. And then Kaboom. He decked Galahad and that was my most successful bet of the year.
19s for one of two boxers in a match is bonkers odds, no matter how carefully picked he was by Eddie Hearn.
It's why I don't bet on boxing (with the exception of the free money that was McGregor - Mayweather where it was just too much not to bet). Emotionally I would not be able to take the gut punch of a flukey 1-hit knockout.
A bit like horse races I quite like to enjoy it without wanting someone to lose. But 19s (and 11s for Plant the other day - and that _was_ a stupid bet) is just too high.
'Tis. Either he has the body of a 7 year old or the phone that took the pic has a weird lens. I see he's at the rting Robert Kennedy Jr clips stage.
It's such a shame, I absolutely loved The Stone Roses but Ian Brown's antivax bullshit has ruined the enjoyment of them.
I Wanna Be Adored was a soundtrack of my life.
One of my mates said he thought they were singing ‘I wanna be a Dog’ and I couldn’t take it seriously after that. That’s his head on a woman’s body isn’t it?
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.
I only watch free to view and I waiting for game of thrones to get there. I'll be the last on the planet to see it. The anticipation though.
The final lines of the headline are telling - "and then what?"
A16 supposedly pushes both parties to fix in a timely manner the issue that prompted the triggering. As we have no proposals that are viable apart from "The EU need to drop all their arguments" this is not going to be a solution.
The simple truth is that we will swing into a trade war as by far the smaller party, will get hit harder by it, will de-escalate and we all find ourselves damaged but back in the exact place we started.
The EU are not about to cave and dismantle the single market. You'd think that our side would understand that by now. Then again with the reports as to how Johnson didn't understand things like the customs union as late as last summer, probably not.
AS per recent press conference he went to Glasgow COP26 and thought he was in Edinburgh, you would think given he has been working it supposedly for some time that he might have remembered it was Glasgow and he actually went there twice last week rather than Edinburgh. The man is a moron.
‘Look Boris, how many time do we have to tell you? Edinburgh is where they think you’re a morally vacant disaster who has proved damaging to the UK and Scotland’s place within it, Glasgow is where they think you’re a prick.’
I'm not sure who will be more insulted - the Weegies or the Edinbuggers.
Just flashed up on my FB page, from the Telegraph. Yes, the Telegraph. "The equine business is being killed by Brexit,” Olympic gold medal-winning rider Nick Skelton told me last week. “It’s been catastrophic as far as the movement of horses to and from Europe is concerned.”
Goes on about lots of complaints about not being to move horses for races such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. How will it affect Cheltenham in the future, especially if there's an on-going row over N. Ireland?
Attacker of Middle Eastern background, not known to security services. The second part is worrying which is probably why the terror threat level has been raised while any links are investigated.
I would guess there must have been some foreknowledge, since they raided that house in another part of Liverpool exceedingly soon after?
Just flashed up on my FB page, from the Telegraph. Yes, the Telegraph. "The equine business is being killed by Brexit,” Olympic gold medal-winning rider Nick Skelton told me last week. “It’s been catastrophic as far as the movement of horses to and from Europe is concerned.”
Goes on about lots of complaints about not being to move horses for races such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. How will it affect Cheltenham in the future, especially if there's an on-going row over N. Ireland?
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
I've yet to get to Narcos Mexico - bogged down atm by Start Up, The Shield (ancient as it is but really good) and a few others.
The Shield is excellent - under-rated I think. Walton Goggins is great.
Just flashed up on my FB page, from the Telegraph. Yes, the Telegraph. "The equine business is being killed by Brexit,” Olympic gold medal-winning rider Nick Skelton told me last week. “It’s been catastrophic as far as the movement of horses to and from Europe is concerned.”
Goes on about lots of complaints about not being to move horses for races such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. How will it affect Cheltenham in the future, especially if there's an on-going row over N. Ireland?
I can confirm that the costs to get horses to and from the EU are extraordinary and huge and didn't exist previously. For example, there is a roaring trade (for EU businesses and vets) taking empty horseboxes to RoI so that they can be certified as EU-compliant costing hundreds if not thousands of pounds at a time.
How significant is that, Presidential nominee-wise?
Mahoosive, he wins it, I suspect Betfair would (over)react and make him the favourite for the Dem nomination.
Texas and her 40 electoral votes for the Dems would be a game changer.
You can get 180 with Smarkets if you are quick.
Its gone already. All that's available now is 140 which I was tempted by as a trading bet but the lay odds are a thousand so its going to be tough to trade with it if there's no liquidity to lay off.
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
It's a yawning gap in my TV best ever drama portfolio so I'll give it ago. I've also not seen Game of Thrones or Mad Men.
It’s not just a very entertaining drama, it also explains how the narcotics industry got so powerful, parasitising entire nations - Mexico, Colombia
Game of Thrones is a hoot, the first 3-4 seasons of Mad Men are excellent (but the later ones much poorer)
Absolutely loved both Narcos and Narcos Mexico - sadly have watched both a few times!
I’ve tended to recommend people watch Narcos Mexico first as it puts a lot of Narcos Colombia Into perspective (even though Colombia was made first). The timeline for Mexico is also focussed earlier so when there is cross-over it makes more sense.
I found Colombia more “real” and Mexico had a more glossy soap opera feel - for example the female characters in Mexico are more glamorous and glossy. Wondered if it reflected a difference in culture if not tv culture of the Mexican soap opera style?
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
They weirdly overlap, to the extent they have the same actors doing the same roles, yet in different dramas. Chapo also overlaps. It’s all quite confusing
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
I've yet to get to Narcos Mexico - bogged down atm by Start Up, The Shield (ancient as it is but really good) and a few others.
The Shield is excellent - under-rated I think. Walton Goggins is great.
Justified, then?
Yes, liked that as well. Not quite as much as The Shield though.
Just flashed up on my FB page, from the Telegraph. Yes, the Telegraph. "The equine business is being killed by Brexit,” Olympic gold medal-winning rider Nick Skelton told me last week. “It’s been catastrophic as far as the movement of horses to and from Europe is concerned.”
Goes on about lots of complaints about not being to move horses for races such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. How will it affect Cheltenham in the future, especially if there's an on-going row over N. Ireland?
Add 'fuck the equestrians' to the growing list.
Ironically it won't impact Cheltenham, we would just (pragmatically) ignore the horse movements for the week...
Remember it's always the french that are awkward elsewhere people are more blaise.
Breaking - Dutch government 'unpleasantly surprised' and 'deeply regrets' announcement by Shell of plans to move tax residence and CEO to UK and drop the 'Royal Dutch' from the name - @AFP. This is a big deal here in the Netherlands
I do wonder at what point regulation starts to impact on headquarters, but also even market participation.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
Shell up 2% in the market today
Yes, the Cop26 flop was good for them.
Interesting you say that when Exxon's stock is currently trading marginally down in its out of hours trading over the weekend (since their exchange isn't open yet).
Shell Renewables has been a large a and serious component of the company for a long time.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Hmm.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
But we shall see.
I THINK, although I may well be wrong, that on many taxis the driver can lock the passenger doors remotely. Stops people doing a runner and so on.
Most cars have child locks that do that for the back. Perspex barrier to passengers might have helped too.
The man's motivation was "yet to be understood", he said (Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West Russ Jackson)
Surely a “terror incident” assumes a terrorising intent? It’s clear as mud.
But which flavour of terrorising intent ?
Militant islamism, anti-abortion, anti-vaccination, far right ?
The Mail article suggests that he wanted to go to the Anglican Cathedral where a Remembrance service was being held.
R4 WATO says he asked to be taken to the Women's Hospital
It seems he wanted to get to the remembrance but was held up by road closures and traffic, and the turn into the hospital was an impulse decision? The sequence of events fits someone who knew the device was already primed to go off at 11 am and was running out of time.
Hmm. Not sure about that. Not sure we have seen timing devices on suicide vests.
Perhaps. But despite reports that the taxi driver locked him in and then got out before the device exploded, the video clearly shows that the device went off first and the driver got out afterwards.
Yes the sequence is there. Just not sure that we have seen that MO before. Not to say it couldn't be done.
Actually timers have been used on suicide bombers for a long time, especially in conflict zones like in the Middle East.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
Hmm.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
But we shall see.
I THINK, although I may well be wrong, that on many taxis the driver can lock the passenger doors remotely. Stops people doing a runner and so on.
Most cars have child locks that do that for the back. Perspex barrier to passengers might have helped too.
Would explain the direction of the blast do all Liverpool taxis have screens, I wonder.
If he couldn't win a statewide election in Texas in 2018 when the Democrats won the House in the midterms, he certainly won't do so next year given the GOP are 10% ahead in the latest 2022 midterms poll.
Comments
Interesting that they think they should try again.
Either he has the body of a 7 year old or the phone that took the pic has a weird lens.
I see he's at the rting Robert Kennedy Jr clips stage.
Putting a timer on a suicide vest makes it much less likely for the bomber to chicken out at the last minute as they've got no trigger to press.
If there was a timer on this one then it certainly points to the person who blew up being a pawn and not the mastermind of the attack.
I Wanna Be Adored was a soundtrack of my life.
It’s true there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase.
No I am not new. I was posting the other day on my phone when I was away at Cheltenham but then I couldn’t get it to work. This is working again now on my MacBook.
What will the impact of fines well over 10 billion Euro on Google in a very few years from the EuCo be? Not enough yet to be substantial, but they are building up.
Our current tentative plan is a couple of days driving to Lake Como via Chamonix, then back via Austria, maybe stopping there for 3-4 nights to explore the locality.
In the past we have stopped at Grindelwald in Switzerland which we absolutely love but we fancy something different this time. I may go for the German alps rather than Austria on the way back, as per the PB suggestions.
Much better than I Wanna Be Unvaxxed.
"I understand what you are saying, mispricing exists in horse racing too, where it’s been kept back, hidden away in point to points despite how fast it was when it last raced on course."
And differs from your latest statement of "there are horses I have seen at point to point that I would like to bet on. They will be long odds when they race on a course, though likely steeplechase."
Which was the last point to point you went to?
To win at horse racing you need inside information. In political betting you just need good (public available) information , a chance post by somebody on here and good analysis of that information
Sports has scandals whereby matches are fixed to suit the bookies. In politics people try to fix the bookies in order to get a political advantage - so laying the fixes can be very profitable.
The theory is that, as a generalisation, Labour MPs will historically have a higher caseload than Tory MPs, simply because of the nature of their constituencies - less affluent on average, more social problems, and so on. However, the Tory MPs in their new northern and midlands seats, in places like Stoke etc., may be finding the same. This could be one reason why they resent the extra paid work of those old-style Tories in the affluent southern seats, who have more time to do other paid work because, other than moans about housing development etc., their case load is less onerous.
The guy had a vest already timed to go off at 11, which he knew (hence why the driver reports seeing him trying to fiddle with it once they began to be held up in traffic). The target was the remembrance ceremony - presumably because of its obvious tie in to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - but the combination of timing, traffic, and road closures around the ceremony meant he wasn’t going to get there in time.
The Mail reports the taxi driver as having said that he then asked to be taken to the town centre, then changed his mind again and asked to be taken to the hospital when they were passing by. By this time the driver is suspicious and there are various reports that the passenger was then locked in. But the video shows the device going off before the taxi stops moving, and the driver gets out afterwards. Suggesting either a pre-timed detonation, or (if not already timed for 11 am) a passenger who realised he had been rumbled and expected to be shortly turned in, and an explosion that didn’t trigger the main device, hence the driver luckily and amazingly survived.
Let’s see what the news cycle reveals….
So far from Moonrabbit all I've really heard is that he/she likes to bet on the nags. I think we should let him/her stay.
My first pass: somehow the taxi driver realised that the guy was up to no good, and confronted him and/or locked the doors at which point the guy triggered the device. Which then maybe partialled although that's some force we saw in the blast and might have directed upwards.
But we shall see.
https://twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1460244885848702987?s=20
And if you are able to stop anywhere within a day trip from Garmisch, doing the Zugspitze on a clear day is an amazing, if relatively costly, experience!
My French stop is just south of Laon, if that would be on your route.
It can be (especially in Ireland) a great stepping stone for National Hunt horses to race "under rules" - which means subject to more stringent rules for horse racing.
Our friend moonie is slightly mixing things up with how it all works.
Everyday day's a school day.
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1460250805299200006?s=21
You mentioned Narcos Mexico the other day. I admit that Narcos has passed me by.
Is Narcos Mexico a sequel, i.e. should I watch Narcos first?
I backed Kiko Martinez for example on Saturday at 19s (bf) to beat Kid Galahad. And for five rounds I was the biggest fool in town. And then Kaboom. He decked Galahad and that was my most successful bet of the year.
19s for one of two boxers in a match is bonkers odds, no matter how carefully picked he was by Eddie Hearn.
This morning I mentioned a Lay of Starmer Exit Date "2023 or earlier" with Smarkets. Very quickly afterwards the 2.6 went up to 2.68. Not a big move, I agree, but I'm convinced there is a link (the price had been stuck at 2.6 for days).
That said, it is excellent. I watched the final episode of series 3 last night. Bleak but compelling. The guy who plays the bad cop turned good is a tremendous actor
https://www.racingpost.com/news/yellow-sam-a-perfectly-executed-gamble-that-netted-barney-curley-a-fortune/247363
The bookies are incredibly bad at setting odds on motorcycle racing in general. They are obviously just working off recent form and don't really understand what's a Yamaha track or a Ducati track, etc.
They used to be similarly bad at odds setting for pro cycling but have greatly improved in recent years as it got popular in the UK.
Beto O'Rourke will run for governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1460253793426161672
For some reason I didn't back it. Couldn't find the market I think.
" You can still get 16/1 on Pedro Acosta to win the Moto3 championship which are absurd odds considering how dominant he has been over the first three races. You're basically betting that he won't injure himself in way that keeps him out for 2-3 races."
Game of Thrones is a hoot, the first 3-4 seasons of Mad Men are excellent (but the later ones much poorer)
Texas and her 40 electoral votes for the Dems would be a game changer.
Jist is O'Rourke won't have any competition for the Democrat nomination but Abbott has 2 for the Republican one.
O'Rourke will need to pivot to the centre and undo some of things he said when running for the 2020 nomination tough.
"The equine business is being killed by Brexit,” Olympic gold medal-winning rider Nick Skelton told me last week. “It’s been catastrophic as far as the movement of horses to and from Europe is concerned.”
Goes on about lots of complaints about not being to move horses for races such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
How will it affect Cheltenham in the future, especially if there's an on-going row over N. Ireland?
I think evens on 2024 doesn't look too bad - if it weren't for coming rampant inflation.
I’ve tended to recommend people watch Narcos Mexico first as it puts a lot of Narcos Colombia Into perspective (even though Colombia was made first). The timeline for Mexico is also focussed earlier so when there is cross-over it makes more sense.
I found Colombia more “real” and Mexico had a more glossy soap opera feel - for example the female characters in Mexico are more glamorous and glossy. Wondered if it reflected a difference in culture if not tv culture of the Mexican soap opera style?
Remember it's always the french that are awkward elsewhere people are more blaise.
Indeed the latest Texas governor poll has Abbott, the GOP incumbent, beating O'Rourke by 9%. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/05/texas-poll-greg-abbott-beto-orourke/
Cruz only beat O'Rourke by 2.6% in 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas