As Waterson points out the Brum to Notts link ends at Parkway, which is literally in the middle of some fields in the middle of nowhere. EM airport is close, but otherwise it links you to some sheep and the last coal power station in UK (closing soon obviously).
It's clear that no one has explained that the greatest advantages actually come from the Leeds extension which opens capacity across both the East Coast and Midland Mainline tracks.
With the new plan their improve capacity to Nottingham / Derby from London and if I'm being generous the cross country capacity into Birmingham from Nottingham.
I'm seriously tempted to say it's a worse plan than scrapping it in its entirety except for the fact if its half built building the rest would rapidly make commercial sense.
If they are phasing construction - as in start at both ends and work inwards then ok. But seemingly not, they have cancelled it. Which means huge expense and disruption especially in Leeds for no real gains. And as you say the bottlenecks on the East Coast remain unsolved.
I get that some MPs don't want to spend the money. Fine. Cancel it then. Don't waste gazillions building pointless bits that get left as a white elephant.
The "don't want to spend the money excuse" is meaningless for them when they spent 12-15bn on the Stamp Duty holiday, and many billions placating the Nimbys of the South East. Leaving aside the dodgy representations / comparisons about the cost of HS2.
One of my grandsons (12) and his father (double vaccinated) have been diagnosed with covid this morning
Indeed my grandson has not been vaccinated yet through Wales NHS
Sad to read that Mr G. However, as one who contracted Covid after being double vaccinated, I can attest that it wasn't nearly as bad as might have been had we not been vaccinated. I had one flu-like day and a bit of a cough; Mrs C had a cough which lasted about a week. Both coughs were infected though, from the appearance of the sputum, but responded well to antibiotics. We're fine now. Much younger relatives have had it and recovered well.
Thanks OKC
Unfortunately thursday is my wife's 82nd birthday and we were having a family gathering which has now been cancelled, but better safe than sorry
Both my grandson and son in law have mild symptoms and my son in law is working from home
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
Having done a little reading into the Shapps story from yesterday, it looks like toast now or toast later.
Why?
I admit to having hardly read in detail, but I can’t see what he’s done wrong.
The criticism seems to be that he’s lobbied in favour of amateur flyers, but so what? In what way (for example) is this different from Boris pushing policy in favour of cyclists?
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Agreed, Had Major lost in 1992 Heseltine would likely have become leader of the opposition and could well have won in 1997. So in pure party politics terms it was bad longer term for the Tories.
However Major's win was the best thing for the country for as was mentioned before PM Kinnock would have reversed many of the Thatcherite reforms and PM Heseltine would have likely been a return to Heathism. There would also have been no Blair Labour leadership or premiership had Kinnock won in 1992 as Labour would not have needed to go further to New Labour to win again
Looks clear to me that selling off the family silver, as Harold Macmillan described Thatchers denationalisation polices have created a situation where we in UK own pretty well none of what once were our great industries.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories.
But a good thing for the country. If Kinnock had won the Thatcher reforms would have been rolled back and would we ever have had PM Blair?
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.
So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
Indeed. I don't remember the IRA ever dropping anything from the air.
The worrying thing is that explosives were used at all, as it suggests far more planning and logistical support than some idiot grabbing a kitchen knife on his way out.
The contents of the cleaning chemical section at the local supermarket/hardware store is either a warning, a monument to human stupidity or a sign of hope...
a) A warning - mix a few of any number of things together to get a bang. b) Human stupidity - they don't realise it's there c) A sign of hope - more people don't do this.
Making something that goes bang doesn't require "planning and logistical support". It requires simple chemistry.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Likewise Cameron's surprise win is 2015 - when even he was hoping for another coalition (to allow awkward manifesto bits to be removed).
Had Cameron failed to win a majority in 2015 and the coalition with the LDs continued, UKIP would likely have been on 20%+ within a year or two though of course there would have been no EUreferendum and Brexit. Ed Miliband would likely have stayed Labour leader so there would have been no Corbyn either
As Waterson points out the Brum to Notts link ends at Parkway, which is literally in the middle of some fields in the middle of nowhere. EM airport is close, but otherwise it links you to some sheep and the last coal power station in UK (closing soon obviously).
It's clear that no one has explained that the greatest advantages actually come from the Leeds extension which opens capacity across both the East Coast and Midland Mainline tracks.
With the new plan their improve capacity to Nottingham / Derby from London and if I'm being generous the cross country capacity into Birmingham from Nottingham.
I'm seriously tempted to say it's a worse plan than scrapping it in its entirety except for the fact if its half built building the rest would rapidly make commercial sense.
If they are phasing construction - as in start at both ends and work inwards then ok. But seemingly not, they have cancelled it. Which means huge expense and disruption especially in Leeds for no real gains. And as you say the bottlenecks on the East Coast remain unsolved.
I get that some MPs don't want to spend the money. Fine. Cancel it then. Don't waste gazillions building pointless bits that get left as a white elephant.
The "don't want to spend the money excuse" is meaningless for them when they spent 12-15bn on the Stamp Duty holiday, and many billions placating the Nimbys of the South East. Leaving aside the dodgy representations / comparisons about the cost of HS2.
That's the bit I really don't get - the sanest build at the moment would be all the way to Sheffield, add a link from there to the East Coast Mainline and you would be good to go.
Midland Mainline completely bypassed East Coast Bypassed from Doncaster south (which I think solves all issues until you hit York / Darlington both of which have improvement plans already).
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Agreed, Had Major lost in 1992 Heseltine would likely have become leader of the opposition and could well have won in 1997. So in pure party politics terms it was bad longer term for the Tories.
However Major's win was the best thing for the country for as was mentioned before PM Kinnock would have reversed many of the Thatcherite reforms and PM Heseltine would have likely been a return to Heathism. There would also have been no Blair Labour leadership or premiership had Kinnock won in 1992 as Labour would not have needed to go further to New Labour to win again
Looks clear to me that selling off the family silver, as Harold Macmillan described Thatchers denationalisation polices have created a situation where we in UK own pretty well none of what once were our great industries.
That is globalisation, most of our main industries are however much more efficient and profitable than pre Thatcher and less strike ridden
Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)
PREMIER LEAGUE
Margaret Thatcher Tony Blair
CHAMPIONSHIP
David Cameron
DIVISION ONE
John Major Gordon Brown Theresa May
DIVISION TWO
Ted Heath Jim Callaghan Boris Johnson
Ironically, the two Conservative Prime Ministers at the bottom of your league table might be the most significant. Ted Heath took us into Europe; Boris took us out.
Of the rest, I'd move Gordon Brown up for his handling of the global financial crisis, and David Cameron to the bottom as our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. He gave us Lansley's disastrous NHS reforms, IDS's UC which was undermined by the Chancellor, flatlined the recovery and attempted to rig the electoral system. He almost lost Scotland and did lose Europe. Even if you think Brexit a good thing, it was clearly not Cameron's government's policy.
Boris is sui generis. I find it impossible to rate him on the same scale as the others.
I think anyone who says "worst Prime Minister since Lord North" should be made to write 2000 words to be marked by @ydoethur on North's strengths and weaknesses. He lost America at a time when generals not PMs won or lost wars. On the other hand he had an impressively long tenure, over 10 years I think, for some of which he was simultaneously CotE.
He was an awful Prime Minister for the 'Intolerable Acts' alone not simply for losing the war.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Likewise Cameron's surprise win is 2015 - when even he was hoping for another coalition (to allow awkward manifesto bits to be removed).
Had Cameron failed to win a majority in 2015 and the coalition with the LDs continued, UKIP would likely have been on 20%+ within a year or two though of course there would have been no EUreferendum and Brexit. Ed Miliband would likely have stayed Labour leader so there would have been no Corbyn either
You are often at your most persuasive when trying hard not to be...
As was clear from the Budget (and maybe even the Financial Statement-y thing before that), Levelling Up is cancelled.
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
I really have no idea how 24 will pan out to be honest
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
At the moment the next election looks more 1964, February 1974, 2010 or 1992 than either 1997 or 1945 unless something changes drastically
Given that we have no shortage of vaccinations, unlike at the start, is it time for people to be able to seek private vaccinations/boosters if they want to? AFAIK this is still not possible. What are they doing in other countries?
BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.
So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
Indeed. I don't remember the IRA ever dropping anything from the air.
The worrying thing is that explosives were used at all, as it suggests far more planning and logistical support than some idiot grabbing a kitchen knife on his way out.
The contents of the cleaning chemical section at the local supermarket/hardware store is either a warning, a monument to human stupidity or a sign of hope...
a) A warning - mix a few of any number of things together to get a bang. b) Human stupidity - they don't realise it's there c) A sign of hope - more people don't do this.
Making something that goes bang doesn't require "planning and logistical support". It requires simple chemistry.
I wonder if the real skill in making something go bang isn't in making it go bang; it's in making it go bang at the time you want it to, not when you're making it, transporting it etc. Plenty of amateur bombmakers have been unexpectedly and prematurely terminated by their own creations.
On this incident: if the main device did go off, then there was little apparent signs of shrapnel on the surroundings, especially the other cars. I'd have expected some from a mail bomb, even if the blast was partially constrained in a vehicle.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Agreed, Had Major lost in 1992 Heseltine would likely have become leader of the opposition and could well have won in 1997. So in pure party politics terms it was bad longer term for the Tories.
However Major's win was the best thing for the country for as was mentioned before PM Kinnock would have reversed many of the Thatcherite reforms and PM Heseltine would have likely been a return to Heathism. There would also have been no Blair Labour leadership or premiership had Kinnock won in 1992 as Labour would not have needed to go further to New Labour to win again
Looks clear to me that selling off the family silver, as Harold Macmillan described Thatchers denationalisation polices have created a situation where we in UK own pretty well none of what once were our great industries.
That is globalisation, most of our main industries are however much more efficient and profitable than pre Thatcher and less strike ridden
And we have a large trade gap, as our earnings from overseas investments have dwindled in comparison to remittances we now pay abroad.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
At the moment the next election looks more 1964, February 1974, 2010 or 1992 than either 1997 or 1945 unless something changes drastically
From a 100 seat (using the new constituency boundaries) majority to no overall control doesn't look good for the history books.
BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.
So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
Indeed. I don't remember the IRA ever dropping anything from the air.
The worrying thing is that explosives were used at all, as it suggests far more planning and logistical support than some idiot grabbing a kitchen knife on his way out.
The contents of the cleaning chemical section at the local supermarket/hardware store is either a warning, a monument to human stupidity or a sign of hope...
a) A warning - mix a few of any number of things together to get a bang. b) Human stupidity - they don't realise it's there c) A sign of hope - more people don't do this.
Making something that goes bang doesn't require "planning and logistical support". It requires simple chemistry.
The chemicals I bought freely as a child would today have the pharmacist straight on the phone to MI5.
But making a bomb, even if only following instructions illegally downloaded, does take more planning than swerving your car onto a crowded pavement.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
At the moment the next election looks more 1964, February 1974, 2010 or 1992 than either 1997 or 1945 unless something changes drastically
From a 100 seat (using the new constituency boundaries) majority to no overall control doesn't look good for the history books.
Even Major lost 40 seats in 1992 and he is the only PM since universal suffrage in 1918 to have won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Agreed, Had Major lost in 1992 Heseltine would likely have become leader of the opposition and could well have won in 1997. So in pure party politics terms it was bad longer term for the Tories.
However Major's win was the best thing for the country for as was mentioned before PM Kinnock would have reversed many of the Thatcherite reforms and PM Heseltine would have likely been a return to Heathism. There would also have been no Blair Labour leadership or premiership had Kinnock won in 1992 as Labour would not have needed to go further to New Labour to win again
Looks clear to me that selling off the family silver, as Harold Macmillan described Thatchers denationalisation polices have created a situation where we in UK own pretty well none of what once were our great industries.
That is globalisation, most of our main industries are however much more efficient and profitable than pre Thatcher and less strike ridden
1. How much do British investors own of German Railways, French Energy? 2. As far as the railways and telecoms are concerned, the big driver has been technology. 3. Zero hours contracts have not been of great benefit to many workers.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
At the moment the next election looks more 1964, February 1974, 2010 or 1992 than either 1997 or 1945 unless something changes drastically
From a 100 seat (using the new constituency boundaries) majority to no overall control doesn't look good for the history books.
It looks quite good for the history books, I would have thought. What is does not look good for is the Conservative leadership.
Scot Gov covid advisor Prof Devi Sridhar tells #bbcgms new covid “protections” we could see include “tightening of indoor settings where it’s risky”. Could include more venues asking for vaccine passports or negative tests. She says she’d advise this should be introduced.
As was clear from the Budget (and maybe even the Financial Statement-y thing before that), Levelling Up is cancelled.
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
Oh I've little doubt that levelling up (with real money) has been cancelled.
And there are a whole pile of projects that can justifibly be kicked into the long grass such as Northern Power Rail (would be nice, let's see if it's needed in the new post Covid world).
What annoys me though is that the greatest benefits for HS2 were always the eastern leg as it fixed capacity issues on both the east and central rail spines of the country and yet that's the bit that's gone.
What is left is slightly faster trains to Manchester (which although has capacity issues aren't as bad as on the eastern side).
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I wish people would stop the disgusting and offensive transphobic comments on here. They're neither funny nor clever and merely display the ignorance and unpleasant nature of those making them.
I can't imagine what it would be like to be transphobic. The joke is at the expense of lefty wannabes who have arbitrarily selected transsexuals as an issue to be posturing wankers about, now that Palestine is a bit passé.
Sure.
Um, piss off? I have been passionately pro gay rights ever since I was old enough to know they were an issue, and I have a male friend whom I have known since he was a teenage girl, so why on earth would I be "transphobic"?
But you virtue signal away. I am sure you brought down apartheid pretty much single handed.
Given that we have no shortage of vaccinations, unlike at the start, is it time for people to be able to seek private vaccinations/boosters if they want to? AFAIK this is still not possible. What are they doing in other countries?
We could move to a system of triple jab for all over 18s, and those that have been boosted within 6 months do not need to isolate even if infected, on the basis the infection is likely to be very mild...
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against). Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.
And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.
Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
Your viewpoint is the Boris will always be an vote winner, my viewpoint is that he is quickly going to turn politically toxic - as the chickens and short term decision making come home to roost.
I concur and expect 22 may well see his premiership end
I wonder if Johnson will resign/retire not long before an election but the Conservatives still go down to a defeat of 1997 or 1945 proportions. Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
At the moment the next election looks more 1964, February 1974, 2010 or 1992 than either 1997 or 1945 unless something changes drastically
From a 100 seat (using the new constituency boundaries) majority to no overall control doesn't look good for the history books.
It looks quite good for the history books, I would have thought. What is does not look good for is the Conservative leadership.
Thniking about it more, it would be very Churchillian - won Brexit, won Covid and an ungrateful population throws you out because they want change.
O/T but to follow up on sneaky DNA sequencing of customer's DNA from covid tests, and of real interest to many PBers, as flagged up some days ago by one of us (I apologise for forgetting whom, but it was well spotted):
'The Sunday Times also reported that the data privacy watchdog was examining information about one company, CignPost, over fears that its terms and conditions could allow the sale of its customers’ genetic data to third parties.
Cignpost denied it was keeping such data. It said: “Cignpost Diagnostics only uses customers’ DNA for Covid-19 testing. All PCR Covid-19 tests are based on DNA analysis. We only use DNA for the purposes of conducting the PCR test in line with Public Health England guidelines. All DNA samples and data are destroyed once the Covid-19 test process is complete and data has been shared with clients and PHE.
“Our terms and conditions do not allow the use of customer DNA samples or data for any purpose other than Covid-19 testing. Any change in use of customer data would require new explicit consent. We apologise to our clients for any concern or confusion caused by today’s media coverage.”.
Given that we have no shortage of vaccinations, unlike at the start, is it time for people to be able to seek private vaccinations/boosters if they want to? AFAIK this is still not possible. What are they doing in other countries?
There is a government press conference in a few minutes, at 9.30.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Scottish Covid vaccinations bookings have gone live for Aged 50 to 59 Unpaid carers who are 16 and over Household contacts of immunosuppressed individuals (16+)
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Likewise Cameron's surprise win is 2015 - when even he was hoping for another coalition (to allow awkward manifesto bits to be removed).
Had Cameron failed to win a majority in 2015 and the coalition with the LDs continued, UKIP would likely have been on 20%+ within a year or two though of course there would have been no EUreferendum and Brexit. Ed Miliband would likely have stayed Labour leader so there would have been no Corbyn either
You are often at your most persuasive when trying hard not to be...
@HYUFD l agree. That is quite a complement from @IanB2 in my opinion.
BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
I was watching Sky News and they played the clip of the police officer statement yesterday where she said "we're keeping an open mind" (i.e. as to whether or not it was terrorism). It obviously is terrorism and it's pretty poor that they were trying to spin it to suggest it was still unknown as to whether or not it was a fault with the car.
Given that we have no shortage of vaccinations, unlike at the start, is it time for people to be able to seek private vaccinations/boosters if they want to? AFAIK this is still not possible. What are they doing in other countries?
We could move to a system of triple jab for all over 18s, and those that have been boosted within 6 months do not need to isolate even if infected, on the basis the infection is likely to be very mild...
Giving under 18s one jab only is out of line with the approach of other countries. Due to this, UK under 18s are classed by other countries as unvaccinated even though they have that the one jab sanctioned by the NHS. There is no option for a second jab. This is causing big issues - indeed I heard only yesterday of a friend's child who has had her school trip cancelled because of this - the school decided that it cannot wait any longer for the government to bring in the second jab for these children.
I got a 4,000 CHF fine and 3 month driving ban in Swizterland than began with immediate effect on the Grimsel pass. I waited until the cops left and then nicked a number plate off a German registered R1200GS to put on my MV. I then went full Five Star Grand Theft Auto to the Italian border.
I've been waiting for a Swiss speeding fine from one of those cameras that very clearly went off as I passed through a tunnel near Lucerne. But no sign of it yet, and doing some Googling it appears that a (probably temporary) 'benefit' of Brexit is that we're no longer sharing drivers' details with Switzerland. So I could be in line for a special Brexit dividend all of my own....
Icelandic plates don't work with UK gatsos. I got a set off eBay for testing purposes.
I wish people would stop the disgusting and offensive transphobic comments on here. They're neither funny nor clever and merely display the ignorance and unpleasant nature of those making them.
I can't imagine what it would be like to be transphobic. The joke is at the expense of lefty wannabes who have arbitrarily selected transsexuals as an issue to be posturing wankers about, now that Palestine is a bit passé.
Sure.
Um, piss off? I have been passionately pro gay rights ever since I was old enough to know they were an issue, and I have a male friend whom I have known since he was a teenage girl, so why on earth would I be "transphobic"?
But you virtue signal away. I am sure you brought down apartheid pretty much single handed.
I have trans friends!
Good for you.
To expand my point, PB has a fair number of what you might call gammon children who have found a woke costume in the dressing up box and are desperate to try it on but don't understand how the straps and buttons work. To these people the trans are probably a wholly theoretical construct. To me they are not.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Due mainly to boundary changes, I can't see an election until 2024. And in any case i'm not certain that Starmer would go if he loses anyway. He's a piece of work.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Boundaries arrive in October - which is why I continually state I expect a November / December 23 election.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Boundaries arrive in October - which is why I continually state I expect a November / December 23 election.
Is it October? I thought it was July, so was expecting ~October election.
I got a 4,000 CHF fine and 3 month driving ban in Swizterland than began with immediate effect on the Grimsel pass. I waited until the cops left and then nicked a number plate off a German registered R1200GS to put on my MV. I then went full Five Star Grand Theft Auto to the Italian border.
I've been waiting for a Swiss speeding fine from one of those cameras that very clearly went off as I passed through a tunnel near Lucerne. But no sign of it yet, and doing some Googling it appears that a (probably temporary) 'benefit' of Brexit is that we're no longer sharing drivers' details with Switzerland. So I could be in line for a special Brexit dividend all of my own....
Icelandic plates don't work with UK gatsos. I got a set off eBay for testing purposes.
Waggish coders propose having as a numberplate an SQL injection which wipes the database.
I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.
But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.
It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.
Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.
Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
Likewise Cameron's surprise win is 2015 - when even he was hoping for another coalition (to allow awkward manifesto bits to be removed).
Had Cameron failed to win a majority in 2015 and the coalition with the LDs continued, UKIP would likely have been on 20%+ within a year or two though of course there would have been no EUreferendum and Brexit. Ed Miliband would likely have stayed Labour leader so there would have been no Corbyn either
You are often at your most persuasive when trying hard not to be...
@HYUFD l agree. That is quite a complement from @IanB2 in my opinion.
Ok I am blaming a autocorrect now, as having got complement wrong last time I was very careful this time and yet....
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
If Sir Keir only managed to reduce the majority in a 2023 election, Labour could still keep him. They kept Neil Kinnock on after the 1987 election when all he did was reduce Mrs Thatcher's majority a bit.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
I was just painting a scenario that has the bet losing but still met Stocky's description. Though I now suspect it was simply a typo on 2022 and was meant to say 2023. I wasn't making a prediction of when the election would be or its result, just pointing out what looked like a mistake in the understanding of the bet.
Apologies - I've checked back - you are right typo!
As a 39 year I old I hope boosters keep going through the age groups and don't stop there.
Fantastic, I'm going to sign up straight away for one as my other half is in her 30s to get the max protection for all of us.
I went to a walk-in yesterday and queued for 3.5 hours rather than wait for an appointment mid-December. Boring as fk and the delay visibly due to understaffing and incompetence but at least it's done. Flu jab later this morning at Boots. I'm going to be pretty much immortal.
I am gobsmacked by the incompetence of DHL Parcel UK. Short of driving to Brissle to sort their depot out not sure there is anything anyone can do.
Once you've been on the receiving end of Hermes's trademark 'dump, run, and email you a photo of some random building' delivery "service", any liveried carrier seems professional by comparison.
(edit/ what they really provide is a social service, encouraging neighbours to knock on each others' doors)
I am gobsmacked by the incompetence of DHL Parcel UK. Short of driving to Brissle to sort their depot out not sure there is anything anyone can do.
I can't agree more. I had to send a parcel from Pembrokeshire to Powys, a distance of 100miles. It took 4 days. It went via Bristol, East Midlands Airport, Shrewsbury, then Powys.
As was clear from the Budget (and maybe even the Financial Statement-y thing before that), Levelling Up is cancelled.
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
Oh I've little doubt that levelling up (with real money) has been cancelled.
And there are a whole pile of projects that can justifibly be kicked into the long grass such as Northern Power Rail (would be nice, let's see if it's needed in the new post Covid world).
What annoys me though is that the greatest benefits for HS2 were always the eastern leg as it fixed capacity issues on both the east and central rail spines of the country and yet that's the bit that's gone.
What is left is slightly faster trains to Manchester (which although has capacity issues aren't as bad as on the eastern side).
The truly truly stupid is the spin that the Sunday Times loyally reported yesterday. OK so we have scrapped HS2E and NPR but look - THREE new high speed lines for you plucky northerners! The truncated short section to Leeds (and all the vast demolition of Leeds city centre required) is not the kind of high speed line people are expecting.
If some gobby minister tries to spin this with their usual level of knowledge and incompetence it will be truly funny.
O/T but to follow up on sneaky DNA sequencing of customer's DNA from covid tests, and of real interest to many PBers, as flagged up some days ago by one of us (I apologise for forgetting whom, but it was well spotted):
'The Sunday Times also reported that the data privacy watchdog was examining information about one company, CignPost, over fears that its terms and conditions could allow the sale of its customers’ genetic data to third parties.
Cignpost denied it was keeping such data. It said: “Cignpost Diagnostics only uses customers’ DNA for Covid-19 testing. All PCR Covid-19 tests are based on DNA analysis. We only use DNA for the purposes of conducting the PCR test in line with Public Health England guidelines. All DNA samples and data are destroyed once the Covid-19 test process is complete and data has been shared with clients and PHE.
“Our terms and conditions do not allow the use of customer DNA samples or data for any purpose other than Covid-19 testing. Any change in use of customer data would require new explicit consent. We apologise to our clients for any concern or confusion caused by today’s media coverage.”.
Yes the Sunday Times picked up on it, it made the front page. It has made lots of newspapers now - interesting to read the daily mail comments in particular - it is fuelling covid conspiracy theories and I wouldn't be surprised if Cignpost get their license suspended.
As was clear from the Budget (and maybe even the Financial Statement-y thing before that), Levelling Up is cancelled.
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
Oh I've little doubt that levelling up (with real money) has been cancelled.
And there are a whole pile of projects that can justifibly be kicked into the long grass such as Northern Power Rail (would be nice, let's see if it's needed in the new post Covid world).
What annoys me though is that the greatest benefits for HS2 were always the eastern leg as it fixed capacity issues on both the east and central rail spines of the country and yet that's the bit that's gone.
What is left is slightly faster trains to Manchester (which although has capacity issues aren't as bad as on the eastern side).
The truly truly stupid is the spin that the Sunday Times loyally reported yesterday. OK so we have scrapped HS2E and NPR but look - THREE new high speed lines for you plucky northerners! The truncated short section to Leeds (and all the vast demolition of Leeds city centre required) is not the kind of high speed line people are expecting.
If some gobby minister tries to spin this with their usual level of knowledge and incompetence it will be truly funny.
If you find my later post I actually have a better solution that would fix the issues and cost the same (given the cost of knocking down Leeds).
Ignore the Leeds to Sheffield bit, build the Nottingham to Sheffield bit - add a link to the ECML somewhere around Doncaster and I think you would be good to go
I am gobsmacked by the incompetence of DHL Parcel UK. Short of driving to Brissle to sort their depot out not sure there is anything anyone can do.
I can't agree more. I had to send a parcel from Pembrokeshire to Powys, a distance of 100miles. It took 4 days. It went via Bristol, East Midlands Airport, Shrewsbury, then Powys.
Hub-and-spoke is generally the efficient way to provide delivery services nowadays. Hence letters going from one part of the island to another generally get taken by ferry to Portsmouth and brought back again.
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
The BBC account has been updated within the last half hour, and reports the passenger was male. There is also speculation that the device might have been an incendiary bomb, else, as you say, it did not detonate properly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59288929
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Boundaries arrive in October - which is why I continually state I expect a November / December 23 election.
Is it October? I thought it was July, so was expecting ~October election.
I know the new boundaries are due next year, but has the FTPA been repealed yet? If so, doesn't there need legislation to bring back the old rules?
O/T but to follow up on sneaky DNA sequencing of customer's DNA from covid tests, and of real interest to many PBers, as flagged up some days ago by one of us (I apologise for forgetting whom, but it was well spotted):
'The Sunday Times also reported that the data privacy watchdog was examining information about one company, CignPost, over fears that its terms and conditions could allow the sale of its customers’ genetic data to third parties.
Cignpost denied it was keeping such data. It said: “Cignpost Diagnostics only uses customers’ DNA for Covid-19 testing. All PCR Covid-19 tests are based on DNA analysis. We only use DNA for the purposes of conducting the PCR test in line with Public Health England guidelines. All DNA samples and data are destroyed once the Covid-19 test process is complete and data has been shared with clients and PHE.
“Our terms and conditions do not allow the use of customer DNA samples or data for any purpose other than Covid-19 testing. Any change in use of customer data would require new explicit consent. We apologise to our clients for any concern or confusion caused by today’s media coverage.”.
Yes the Sunday Times picked up on it, it made the front page. It has made lots of newspapers now - interesting to read the daily mail comments in particular - it is fuelling covid conspiracy theories and I wouldn't be surprised if Cignpost get their license suspended.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Boundaries arrive in October - which is why I continually state I expect a November / December 23 election.
Is it October? I thought it was July, so was expecting ~October election.
I know the new boundaries are due next year, but has the FTPA been repealed yet? If so, doesn't there need legislation to bring back the old rules?
Do you think any opposition would ever reject a request for an election?
Under the FTPA the next election is May 5th 2024 so there is actually little point wasting Parliamentary time dealing with it at the moment.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Boundaries arrive in October - which is why I continually state I expect a November / December 23 election.
Is it October? I thought it was July, so was expecting ~October election.
I know the new boundaries are due next year, but has the FTPA been repealed yet? If so, doesn't there need legislation to bring back the old rules?
Do you think any opposition would ever reject a request for an election?
Under the FTPA the next election is May 5th 2024 so there is actually little point wasting Parliamentary time dealing with it at the moment.
They don't seem to be doing much else, apart from Covid.
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
The BBC account has been updated within the last half hour, and reports the passenger was male. There is also speculation that the device might have been an incendiary bomb, else, as you say, it did not detonate properly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59288929
Remember the Doctors Plot? The one where a Glaswegian cabbie ended up giving one of the idiots a bit of shoeing?
They seemed to think they could detonate petrol just by... hoping?
The most worrying thing to me was that doctors employed by the NHS were *that* bad at chemistry.
I am gobsmacked by the incompetence of DHL Parcel UK. Short of driving to Brissle to sort their depot out not sure there is anything anyone can do.
I can't agree more. I had to send a parcel from Pembrokeshire to Powys, a distance of 100miles. It took 4 days. It went via Bristol, East Midlands Airport, Shrewsbury, then Powys.
Hub-and-spoke is generally the efficient way to provide delivery services nowadays. Hence letters going from one part of the island to another generally get taken by ferry to Portsmouth and brought back again.
Hub and spoke works for delivery - because it centralises parcel sorting and simplifies work at the depot - 6pm load everything into the lorry to the hub (warehouse should be almost empty), 6am unload the freshly arrived parcels.
I am gobsmacked by the incompetence of DHL Parcel UK. Short of driving to Brissle to sort their depot out not sure there is anything anyone can do.
I can't agree more. I had to send a parcel from Pembrokeshire to Powys, a distance of 100miles. It took 4 days. It went via Bristol, East Midlands Airport, Shrewsbury, then Powys.
My parcels aren't leaving the warehouse. Driver comes to site (logistics warehousing) with "collect from frozen dock" instructions which I know are given. Is directed where to go by security. But then doesn't wait 2 minutes for the parcels to be pulled out of the freezer despite instructions to do so.
Was all OK with regular drivers. But they're now struggling with driver shortages and agency staff. And has all gone to shit.
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
I agree completely. I still believe that Johnson and Starmer will head their parties for years to come.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Um, spring 2023 election, Labour loses, Starmer resigns and is replaced in August 2023. Your bet loses.
Why would there be a Spring election when the new boundaries arrive in July?
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Boundaries arrive in October - which is why I continually state I expect a November / December 23 election.
Is it October? I thought it was July, so was expecting ~October election.
I know the new boundaries are due next year, but has the FTPA been repealed yet? If so, doesn't there need legislation to bring back the old rules?
The repeal of the FTPA was in the Queen's Speech I believe and I believe the paper for it has been published, so the repeal should go ahead within the next year.
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
Good on the guy in the yellow jacket: he ran to help the driver, not knowing exactly what he was dealing with. The guy could have been one of the assailants...
O/T but to follow up on sneaky DNA sequencing of customer's DNA from covid tests, and of real interest to many PBers, as flagged up some days ago by one of us (I apologise for forgetting whom, but it was well spotted):
'The Sunday Times also reported that the data privacy watchdog was examining information about one company, CignPost, over fears that its terms and conditions could allow the sale of its customers’ genetic data to third parties.
Cignpost denied it was keeping such data. It said: “Cignpost Diagnostics only uses customers’ DNA for Covid-19 testing. All PCR Covid-19 tests are based on DNA analysis. We only use DNA for the purposes of conducting the PCR test in line with Public Health England guidelines. All DNA samples and data are destroyed once the Covid-19 test process is complete and data has been shared with clients and PHE.
“Our terms and conditions do not allow the use of customer DNA samples or data for any purpose other than Covid-19 testing. Any change in use of customer data would require new explicit consent. We apologise to our clients for any concern or confusion caused by today’s media coverage.”.
Yes the Sunday Times picked up on it, it made the front page. It has made lots of newspapers now - interesting to read the daily mail comments in particular - it is fuelling covid conspiracy theories and I wouldn't be surprised if Cignpost get their license suspended.
Depending which ministers are on their payroll
There's either some bad confusion or some sneakily weasel wording there, come to think of it. 'customer's DNA' is decidedly ambiguously phrased - using it 'for covid testing' could be interpreted as examining the human DNA for correlations of sequence variation with covid. Which is of course a RNA, not DNA, virus.
It doesn't help having the wider background of UKG trying to hand over English medical data to commercial firms without a proper opt in system/
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
The BBC account has been updated within the last half hour, and reports the passenger was male. There is also speculation that the device might have been an incendiary bomb, else, as you say, it did not detonate properly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59288929
Remember the Doctors Plot? The one where a Glaswegian cabbie ended up giving one of the idiots a bit of shoeing?
They seemed to think they could detonate petrol just by... hoping?
The most worrying thing to me was that doctors employed by the NHS were *that* bad at chemistry.
As was clear from the Budget (and maybe even the Financial Statement-y thing before that), Levelling Up is cancelled.
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
Oh I've little doubt that levelling up (with real money) has been cancelled.
And there are a whole pile of projects that can justifibly be kicked into the long grass such as Northern Power Rail (would be nice, let's see if it's needed in the new post Covid world).
What annoys me though is that the greatest benefits for HS2 were always the eastern leg as it fixed capacity issues on both the east and central rail spines of the country and yet that's the bit that's gone.
What is left is slightly faster trains to Manchester (which although has capacity issues aren't as bad as on the eastern side).
The truly truly stupid is the spin that the Sunday Times loyally reported yesterday. OK so we have scrapped HS2E and NPR but look - THREE new high speed lines for you plucky northerners! The truncated short section to Leeds (and all the vast demolition of Leeds city centre required) is not the kind of high speed line people are expecting.
If some gobby minister tries to spin this with their usual level of knowledge and incompetence it will be truly funny.
If you find my later post I actually have a better solution that would fix the issues and cost the same (given the cost of knocking down Leeds).
Ignore the Leeds to Sheffield bit, build the Nottingham to Sheffield bit - add a link to the ECML somewhere around Doncaster and I think you would be good to go
Nope - can't build HS2E because too many Tory MPs think their patrons can't trough from it its a waste of money. Building most of it would clearly still be the HS2E scheme.
But look! The mighty sword of dobber has sliced it neatly in twain! Now we have two high speed likes to offer the plebs and neither are HS2E honest!
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
And good for him, if he locked the bomber in the car
Is there a betting market on what gong the cabbie gets? OBE imo.
Terrorism is often excluded from insurance policies. I hope he gets his cab replaced. I'm guessing there will be a whip round if he doesn't and bad press for the insurer so I think he will be ok.
Back to COP26 for a moment. The simplicities of idiots have, so far, been decent predictors of actual progress. Is this idiot's guide COP26 about right:
1) CO2 emissions are both continuing and increasing in output year on year.
2) It is essential to halve emissions by 2030 - reduce to 50% of current levels.
3) COP26 puts us in line to reduce the additional annual amount of CO2 by 20%, not 50%.
4) 20% of 50% is 10% of 100%
5) COP26, if implemented, reduces the amount of annual extra CO2 by 2030 by 10% from its current level. We are still doing 90% of the damage we are doing now.
6) If the science is right this isn't going to work, and is nowhere close.
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
The BBC account has been updated within the last half hour, and reports the passenger was male. There is also speculation that the device might have been an incendiary bomb, else, as you say, it did not detonate properly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59288929
Remember the Doctors Plot? The one where a Glaswegian cabbie ended up giving one of the idiots a bit of shoeing?
They seemed to think they could detonate petrol just by... hoping?
The most worrying thing to me was that doctors employed by the NHS were *that* bad at chemistry.
Chemistry and ethics.
Mind you, they did target Tiger Tiger, which suggests a taste in nightclubs that could only that be formed in.... Ethics.
It feels like Johnson has moved from derision to absolute loathing
A perfect time to have as leader of the opposition a QC and ex Director of Public Prosecutions once described as the finest lawyer of his generation.
For once the stars look to be perfectly aligned.
And the time has come for Sir Keir Rodney Starmer to remove this charlatan from political life once and for all.
"someone described as the finest lawyer of his generation."
You are having a serious giraffe, mate. Those that can, prosecute. Those that can't, direct.
That's very funny and brought a welcome smile! However in the case of Sir Keir I'm assured that unlike most in his profession (and yours?) he was not motivated by lucre and preferred public service
It feels like Johnson has moved from derision to absolute loathing
A perfect time to have as leader of the opposition a QC and ex Director of Public Prosecutions once described as the finest lawyer of his generation.
For once the stars look to be perfectly aligned.
And the time has come for Sir Keir Rodney Starmer to remove this charlatan from political life once and for all.
"someone described as the finest lawyer of his generation."
You are having a serious giraffe, mate. Those that can, prosecute. Those that can't, direct.
That's very funny and brought a welcome smile! However in the case of Sir Keir I'm assured that unlike most in his profession (and yours?) he was not motivated by lucre and preferred public service
It is one of the areas in which I have failed over the years, but @DavidL seems not to rate him
Back to COP26 for a moment. The simplicities of idiots have, so far, been decent predictors of actual progress. Is this idiot's guide COP26 about right:
1) CO2 emissions are both continuing and increasing in output year on year.
2) It is essential to halve emissions by 2030 - reduce to 50% of current levels.
3) COP26 puts us in line to reduce the additional annual amount of CO2 by 20%, not 50%.
4) 20% of 50% is 10% of 100%
5) COP26, if implemented, reduces the amount of annual extra CO2 by 2030 by 10% from its current level. We are still doing 90% of the damage we are doing now.
6) If the science is right this isn't going to work, and is nowhere close.
Where have I gone wrong?
The UK gets to wear the hairshirt whilst China, India and the USA carry on with coal for now ?
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
And good for him, if he locked the bomber in the car
Is there a betting market on what gong the cabbie gets? OBE imo.
If that was a bomber and he thwarted him hand to hand, that's George Cross territory, surely?
No. As a guideline, Lisa Potts, the nursery school teacher who was badly cut shielding children from a machete got the George Medal. What the cabbie showed and must be rewarded for is alertness and quick thinking rather than courage per se. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Potts
As was clear from the Budget (and maybe even the Financial Statement-y thing before that), Levelling Up is cancelled.
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
Oh I've little doubt that levelling up (with real money) has been cancelled.
And there are a whole pile of projects that can justifibly be kicked into the long grass such as Northern Power Rail (would be nice, let's see if it's needed in the new post Covid world).
What annoys me though is that the greatest benefits for HS2 were always the eastern leg as it fixed capacity issues on both the east and central rail spines of the country and yet that's the bit that's gone.
What is left is slightly faster trains to Manchester (which although has capacity issues aren't as bad as on the eastern side).
The truly truly stupid is the spin that the Sunday Times loyally reported yesterday. OK so we have scrapped HS2E and NPR but look - THREE new high speed lines for you plucky northerners! The truncated short section to Leeds (and all the vast demolition of Leeds city centre required) is not the kind of high speed line people are expecting.
If some gobby minister tries to spin this with their usual level of knowledge and incompetence it will be truly funny.
If you find my later post I actually have a better solution that would fix the issues and cost the same (given the cost of knocking down Leeds).
Ignore the Leeds to Sheffield bit, build the Nottingham to Sheffield bit - add a link to the ECML somewhere around Doncaster and I think you would be good to go
Nope - can't build HS2E because too many Tory MPs think their patrons can't trough from it its a waste of money. Building most of it would clearly still be the HS2E scheme.
But look! The mighty sword of dobber has sliced it neatly in twain! Now we have two high speed likes to offer the plebs and neither are HS2E honest!
I think we are again seeing another item where the Red Wall MPs are losing out to those in safe seats.
What is curious is why is Boris suddenly listening to the safe seat MPs rather than the Red Wall MPs?
It feels like Johnson has moved from derision to absolute loathing
A perfect time to have as leader of the opposition a QC and ex Director of Public Prosecutions once described as the finest lawyer of his generation.
For once the stars look to be perfectly aligned.
And the time has come for Sir Keir Rodney Starmer to remove this charlatan from political life once and for all.
"someone described as the finest lawyer of his generation."
You are having a serious giraffe, mate. Those that can, prosecute. Those that can't, direct.
That's very funny and brought a welcome smile! However in the case of Sir Keir I'm assured that unlike most in his profession (and yours?) he was not motivated by lucre and preferred public service
And its that level of public service that led to him sticking loyally with Corbyn and denying there was an antisemitism problem even when the evidence was right there all along?
That figure represents the largest lead for the GOP in the 110 polls conducted by the two news organizations since 1981, ABC noted. It also represents only the second time since 1981 Republicans have held a statistical advantage in that category.
The same poll found 62 percent of Americans said the Democratic party is "out of touch" with the concerns of most citizens, compared to 58 percent who said the same of Republicans.
A total of 63 percent of all respondents indicated they support President Biden's newly-passed $1 trillion infrastructure bill and another 58 percent indicated support for the larger social spending packages Democrats are working to pass in Congress...
Back to COP26 for a moment. The simplicities of idiots have, so far, been decent predictors of actual progress. Is this idiot's guide COP26 about right:
1) CO2 emissions are both continuing and increasing in output year on year.
2) It is essential to halve emissions by 2030 - reduce to 50% of current levels.
3) COP26 puts us in line to reduce the additional annual amount of CO2 by 20%, not 50%.
4) 20% of 50% is 10% of 100%
5) COP26, if implemented, reduces the amount of annual extra CO2 by 2030 by 10% from its current level. We are still doing 90% of the damage we are doing now.
6) If the science is right this isn't going to work, and is nowhere close.
Where have I gone wrong?
I don't think you have, especially. The process will be an iterative one.
Consider the path to the current plans in the UK. And the fact that there is non-trivial political pressure to bring those further forward.
The surprise was signing up India and China to *anything*
The next step is to ratchet the progress - the fact that China and India have signed up to *something* takes alot of political pressure off Biden in the US, for example. There was a whole political thing built around "If India and China don't do anything, then we are mugs to do anything."
Which means, hopefully, more progress in the US. And, also hopefully, a new competition between India and China to promise more and more....
Comments
Unfortunately thursday is my wife's 82nd birthday and we were having a family gathering which has now been cancelled, but better safe than sorry
Both my grandson and son in law have mild symptoms and my son in law is working from home
I admit to having hardly read in detail, but I can’t see what he’s done wrong.
The criticism seems to be that he’s lobbied in favour of amateur flyers, but so what? In what way (for example) is this different from Boris pushing policy in favour of cyclists?
a) A warning - mix a few of any number of things together to get a bang.
b) Human stupidity - they don't realise it's there
c) A sign of hope - more people don't do this.
Making something that goes bang doesn't require "planning and logistical support". It requires simple chemistry.
Midland Mainline completely bypassed
East Coast Bypassed from Doncaster south (which I think solves all issues until you hit York / Darlington both of which have improvement plans already).
Which will then be ascribed in some quarters at least to him not being there!
I actually believe Boris *is* in favour of “Levelling Up” as the speech he gave on it several months ago was one of his more informed efforts.
The issue is that Rishi is unwilling to fund it, and Boris doesn’t have the operational capability or the attention to detail to do anything about it.
Of course Levelling Up as a label will continue, and a White Paper is due soon, but my prediction is that it will not achieve much coherence and effectively be used to describe some too-modest local government reforms, a tram system for Leeds, and a hanging baskets fund.
On this incident: if the main device did go off, then there was little apparent signs of shrapnel on the surroundings, especially the other cars. I'd have expected some from a mail bomb, even if the blast was partially constrained in a vehicle.
But making a bomb, even if only following instructions illegally downloaded, does take more planning than swerving your car onto a crowded pavement.
2. As far as the railways and telecoms are concerned, the big driver has been technology.
3. Zero hours contracts have not been of great benefit to many workers.
https://twitter.com/BBCDavidWL/status/1460160674978537472?s=20
And there are a whole pile of projects that can justifibly be kicked into the long grass such as Northern Power Rail (would be nice, let's see if it's needed in the new post Covid world).
What annoys me though is that the greatest benefits for HS2 were always the eastern leg as it fixed capacity issues on both the east and central rail spines of the country and yet that's the bit that's gone.
What is left is slightly faster trains to Manchester (which although has capacity issues aren't as bad as on the eastern side).
The history of Tory MPs kicking out leaders is often overstated. Since the party first started electing leaders in 1965, it's only done so four times - and, crucially, even then only after a considerable period of grumbling and hesitation.
I don't really see Johnson coming back from where he is now; his problems are a factor of his personality and political style - and those aren't going to change. On top of which, he has problems coming down the line with an income squeeze, rising interest rates, an NHS under severe pressure for some years to come, and Red Wall MPs pissed off that 'levelling up' turned out to be no more than a newspaper column idea. I suspect that personal promises to MPs may also turn out (or have turned out) to have been given optimistically.
However, he's still the man who won the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s. It will take more than a few bad polls to shift him. Both that record, and also an imperative that he has to take the blame with him when he goes, means that I expect MPs to wait until at least after the May elections next year but quite possibly not until 2023 before they act. There will be, after all, 12-18 months to rebuild after that - plenty long enough to establish a new leadership in office, while potentially short enough to benefit from a lingering honeymoon.
A perfect time to have as leader of the opposition a QC and ex Director of Public Prosecutions once described as the finest lawyer of his generation.
For once the stars look to be perfectly aligned.
Surely the time has come for Sir Keir Rodney Starmer to remove this charlatan from political life once and for all.
But you virtue signal away. I am sure you brought down apartheid pretty much single handed.
You are having a serious giraffe, mate. Those that can, prosecute. Those that can't, direct.
O/T but to follow up on sneaky DNA sequencing of customer's DNA from covid tests, and of real interest to many PBers, as flagged up some days ago by one of us (I apologise for forgetting whom, but it was well spotted):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/14/uk-officials-have-compiled-covid-exit-strategy-from-april-report
'The Sunday Times also reported that the data privacy watchdog was examining information about one company, CignPost, over fears that its terms and conditions could allow the sale of its customers’ genetic data to third parties.
Cignpost denied it was keeping such data. It said: “Cignpost Diagnostics only uses customers’ DNA for Covid-19 testing. All PCR Covid-19 tests are based on DNA analysis. We only use DNA for the purposes of conducting the PCR test in line with Public Health England guidelines. All DNA samples and data are destroyed once the Covid-19 test process is complete and data has been shared with clients and PHE.
“Our terms and conditions do not allow the use of customer DNA samples or data for any purpose other than Covid-19 testing. Any change in use of customer data would require new explicit consent. We apologise to our clients for any concern or confusion caused by today’s media coverage.”.
The best best at the moment in these markets IMO is Smarkets: "Keir Starmer Exit Date".
Lay 2.6 "2023 or earlier".
Given that the LP takes at least three months for a new leader to be elected (this is the settlement terms laid out in
the Smarkets market rules) this means that you are betting that Starmer will lead past Sept/Oct 2022 only.
Aged 50 to 59
Unpaid carers who are 16 and over
Household contacts of immunosuppressed individuals (16+)
Booking portal is, erm, straining under the load.
To expand my point, PB has a fair number of what you might call gammon children who have found a woke costume in the dressing up box and are desperate to try it on but don't understand how the straps and buttons work. To these people the trans are probably a wholly theoretical construct. To me they are not.
I'd expect an autumn 2023 election if events are going well for the government, that makes it tight to see if Starmer could be replaced in 2023 or would survive to 2024.
Second doses for 16s and 17s.
Good move!
As a 39 year I old I hope boosters keep going through the age groups and don't stop there.
They kept Neil Kinnock on after the 1987 election when all he did was reduce Mrs Thatcher's majority a bit.
(edit/ what they really provide is a social service, encouraging neighbours to knock on each others' doors)
New data.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10203173/Moment-Poppy-Day-car-bomb-EXPLODES-Video-shows-taxi-stop-outside-Liverpool-Womens-Hospital.html
A very lucky escape for the cabbie. The suggestion that the bomb didn't detonate may be right.
If some gobby minister tries to spin this with their usual level of knowledge and incompetence it will be truly funny.
Ignore the Leeds to Sheffield bit, build the Nottingham to Sheffield bit - add a link to the ECML somewhere around Doncaster and I think you would be good to go
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-59288929
Under the FTPA the next election is May 5th 2024 so there is actually little point wasting Parliamentary time dealing with it at the moment.
They seemed to think they could detonate petrol just by... hoping?
The most worrying thing to me was that doctors employed by the NHS were *that* bad at chemistry.
Was all OK with regular drivers. But they're now struggling with driver shortages and agency staff. And has all gone to shit.
It doesn't help having the wider background of UKG trying to hand over English medical data to commercial firms without a proper opt in system/
their patrons can't trough from itits a waste of money. Building most of it would clearly still be the HS2E scheme.But look! The mighty sword of dobber has sliced it neatly in twain! Now we have two high speed likes to offer the plebs and neither are HS2E honest!
1) CO2 emissions are both continuing and increasing in output year on year.
2) It is essential to halve emissions by 2030 - reduce to 50% of current levels.
3) COP26 puts us in line to reduce the additional annual amount of CO2 by 20%, not 50%.
4) 20% of 50% is 10% of 100%
5) COP26, if implemented, reduces the amount of annual extra CO2 by 2030 by 10% from its current level. We are still doing 90% of the damage we are doing now.
6) If the science is right this isn't going to work, and is nowhere close.
Where have I gone wrong?
Shell moving their headquarters to the UK by moving a grand total of 8 (albeit the most senior management) people from the Netherlands.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Potts
What is curious is why is Boris suddenly listening to the safe seat MPs rather than the Red Wall MPs?
https://thehill.com/homenews/581475-republicans-hold-largest-edge-in-early-midterm-vote-preferences-in-40-years-poll
...An ABC News/Washington Post poll published Sunday found if midterm elections were held now, 51 percent of all registered voters say they would vote for a Republican in their congressional district, as opposed to 41 percent who said they would go with a Democrat.
That figure represents the largest lead for the GOP in the 110 polls conducted by the two news organizations since 1981, ABC noted. It also represents only the second time since 1981 Republicans have held a statistical advantage in that category.
The same poll found 62 percent of Americans said the Democratic party is "out of touch" with the concerns of most citizens, compared to 58 percent who said the same of Republicans.
A total of 63 percent of all respondents indicated they support President Biden's newly-passed $1 trillion infrastructure bill and another 58 percent indicated support for the larger social spending packages Democrats are working to pass in Congress...
Consider the path to the current plans in the UK. And the fact that there is non-trivial political pressure to bring those further forward.
The surprise was signing up India and China to *anything*
The next step is to ratchet the progress - the fact that China and India have signed up to *something* takes alot of political pressure off Biden in the US, for example. There was a whole political thing built around "If India and China don't do anything, then we are mugs to do anything."
Which means, hopefully, more progress in the US. And, also hopefully, a new competition between India and China to promise more and more....