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A Johnson exit in 2022 moving up in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
imageA Johnson exit in 2022 moving up in the betting – politicalbetting.com

The recent record lows in Johnson’s leadership ratings and LAB taking the lead have sparked off a flurry of activity in several betting markets including the year in which Johnson will go.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,069
    first.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    What we won't see in 2022 or for sometime afterwards is a LAB government.

    Goodnight all 👍
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,023

    What we won't see in 2022 or for sometime afterwards is a LAB government.

    Goodnight all 👍

    Great point, trouble is I cant see how this ends for a BJ-led Conservative govt either.... I am hoping (in a voyeuristic sort of way) that it is messy and undignified for the blues....they have had it too easy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,755
    Apparently the UN is giving the names of Uyghur dissidents to China

    https://www.newsweek.com/united-nations-giving-names-uyghur-dissidents-china-opinion-1649060
  • YokesYokes Posts: 733
    It looks like the cops in Liverpool have drafted in some national level units. That suggests the probability of attacking whatever property they are looking at.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    I agree.
    Although I have obviously been double vaxxed and boostered to be immune from sensing his "charisma". Though I know some are overpowered by it.
    At the presser he seemed to me an incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma.
    But maybe that's just me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,222
    dixiedean said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    I agree.
    Although I have obviously been double vaxxed and boostered to be immune from sensing his "charisma". Though I know some are overpowered by it.
    At the presser he seemed to me an incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma.
    But maybe that's just me.
    "incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma."

    That's interesting, as IME the chancers are usually smooth, well-dressed and articulate; all the better to persuade suckers to buy the medicine.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,753
    edited November 15
    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,753
    edited November 15

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    From that Mail link:-
    One theory police are probing is that the detonators on a potential bomb exploded but not the main charge. That would be a repeat of the failed 21/7 bombings three weeks after the 7/7 atrocity.

    In the immediate aftermath of the blast local police handed command of the incident to the North West Counter Terror force based in Manchester. They stressed it was 'out of caution' and that the blast had not officially been deemed a terror attack.


    So the Mail just seems to be reporting more speculation rather than more facts. If the authorities are playing it close to their chest, what choice is there?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    It looks like a suicide vest that has gone off early in the taxi rather than amongst the chosen targets. And thank the lord for that. Weird thing is that it wasn't much of a bang if the poor taxi driver survived. It may have misfunctioned.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
  • dixiedean said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    I agree.
    Although I have obviously been double vaxxed and boostered to be immune from sensing his "charisma". Though I know some are overpowered by it.
    At the presser he seemed to me an incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma.
    But maybe that's just me.
    "incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma."

    That's interesting, as IME the chancers are usually smooth, well-dressed and articulate; all the better to persuade suckers to buy the medicine.
    Politics seems a bit different. Perhaps because of Blair and Cameron, we tend to distrust the smoothies. BoJo's scarecrow look makes him look more authentic, makes him stand out, and fits his "the rules don't apply to me" power play.

    The slight surprise is that he can't / won't scrub up for those occasions- big summits, say- when it would be better to leave his hair tidy and wear a suit that fits.
  • ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    There are some facts being pointlessly withheld. For instance, did the bomber identify as a man or a woman?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    dixiedean said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    I agree.
    Although I have obviously been double vaxxed and boostered to be immune from sensing his "charisma". Though I know some are overpowered by it.
    At the presser he seemed to me an incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma.
    But maybe that's just me.
    "incoherent, ill- informed, scruffy chancer in comparison to the smooth and on the ball Sharma."

    That's interesting, as IME the chancers are usually smooth, well-dressed and articulate; all the better to persuade suckers to buy the medicine.
    Politics seems a bit different. Perhaps because of Blair and Cameron, we tend to distrust the smoothies. BoJo's scarecrow look makes him look more authentic, makes him stand out, and fits his "the rules don't apply to me" power play.

    The slight surprise is that he can't / won't scrub up for those occasions- big summits, say- when it would be better to leave his hair tidy and wear a suit that fits.
    You'd think Carrie would have something to say on the subject. Can't see Mrs C letting me go off to somewhere important looking like a scruff.

    On the subject of his spouses, his lawyers have managed to make sure they they all keep very quiet about life with him. Odd, that. Hell hath no fury and so on.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    More evidence of stress in the Trump Organisation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59257319

    The money paid to that hotel by foreign governments during his Presidency stinks to high heaven but its the loss of a prestigious site in Washington itself, near the Whitehouse. It also suggests, again, that the Trump name is not an asset in running such a business. His claim to be a successful businessman is rapidly catching up with his claim that the election was stolen in credibility.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    From that Mail link:-
    One theory police are probing is that the detonators on a potential bomb exploded but not the main charge. That would be a repeat of the failed 21/7 bombings three weeks after the 7/7 atrocity.

    In the immediate aftermath of the blast local police handed command of the incident to the North West Counter Terror force based in Manchester. They stressed it was 'out of caution' and that the blast had not officially been deemed a terror attack.


    So the Mail just seems to be reporting more speculation rather than more facts. If the authorities are playing it close to their chest, what choice is there?
    Lazy journalism again, 21/7 was obviously TWO weeks after 7/7.

    On topic, I don't see any clamour within the Parliamentary Conservative party to replace Boris, he will retire as 'Sir' or Lord Boris quite soon after the 2024 election, win or lose.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    edited November 15
    FPT

    Paging the PB Travel Club:

    Planning a road trip to the Italian Lakes next summer and we fancy coimng back via Austria with a few nights stop somewhere.

    I don't know Austria at all, what's our best bet for a stop... Innsbruck? Salzburg? Vienna is a bit out of the way since we have to drive back to the Channel

    I saw this from last night - Sean’s suggestion of the South Tyrol was on the money in terms of its attractions, but not necessarily the geography. It depends which lake you are finishing at. If your trip ends at Garda, then heading up through the Brenner can be the way home, and South Tyrol is a great extra stop - Bolzano or Brixen, as he said, or Merano, for a small detour or Ortisei for a moderate detour.

    But you’ll still then have a long drive home, too long for a single leg. Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    However if you’re at the western lakes it would obviously be more sensible to come back through Switzerland, and even from Iseo Austria would be a considerable detour. Indeed Garda via Austria is more driving than via France or Switzerland, assuming you’re heading for Calais or similar.

    You can buy Austrian motorway passes online provided you do so at least two weeks before the journey.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    IanB2 said:

    Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    I like to overnight in Bonn coming back from the alps
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Paging the PB Travel Club:

    Planning a road trip to the Italian Lakes next summer and we fancy coimng back via Austria with a few nights stop somewhere.

    I don't know Austria at all, what's our best bet for a stop... Innsbruck? Salzburg? Vienna is a bit out of the way since we have to drive back to the Channel

    I saw this from last night - Sean’s suggestion of the South Tyrol was on the money in terms of its attractions, but not necessarily the geography. It depends which lake you are finishing at. If your trip ends at Garda, then heading up through the Brenner can be the way home, and South Tyrol is a great extra stop - Bolzano or Brixen, as he said, or Merano, for a small detour or Ortisei for a moderate detour.

    But you’ll still then have a long drive home, too long for a single leg. Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    However if you’re at the western lakes it would obviously be more sensible to come back through Switzerland, and even from Iseo Austria would be a considerable detour. Indeed Garda via Austria is more driving than via France or Switzerland, assuming you’re heading for Calais or similar.

    You can buy Austrian motorway passes online provided you do so at least two weeks before the journey.
    Konstanz and it's Lake. Especially the latter.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    There are some facts being pointlessly withheld. For instance, did the bomber identify as a man or a woman?
    After a suicide vest goes off, the wearer tends to identify as a detached head. I suppose you can still have a look to see if it's bearded
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Conservative Party chairman, Oliver Dowden says the Prime Minister has said “mistakes were made” and he has “regret”.

    According to the govt minister that is ‘effectively the same’ as an apology over the handling of sleaze claims.


    #KayBurley
    https://trib.al/5J1pu6I https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1460152923401474052/video/1
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477
    DavidL said:

    More evidence of stress in the Trump Organisation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59257319

    The money paid to that hotel by foreign governments during his Presidency stinks to high heaven but its the loss of a prestigious site in Washington itself, near the Whitehouse. It also suggests, again, that the Trump name is not an asset in running such a business. His claim to be a successful businessman is rapidly catching up with his claim that the election was stolen in credibility.

    The family fortune was made by his father Fred Trump who was something of a teenage genius, buying real estate in his mother's (Donald's Grandmother) name at first because he was under age.

    They went on to make a vast fortune by buying up chunks of Manhattan at rock bottom prices when people were forced to sell during the Great Depression.

    Fred had to retire in in 1990s because he developed Alzheimer's disease and he choose to hand over nearly all the family wealth to Donald because his eldest son, Fred Jnr. was a chronic alcoholic.

    When he first became President someone calculated that if Donald had simply put all the money on deposit, he would have more money than he has now after his mostly unsuccessful business career.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    There are some facts being pointlessly withheld. For instance, did the bomber identify as a man or a woman?
    After a suicide vest goes off, the wearer tends to identify as a detached head. I suppose you can still have a look to see if it's bearded
    A person with a beard might still identify as a woman or non-binary.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,534
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    There are some facts being pointlessly withheld. For instance, did the bomber identify as a man or a woman?
    After a suicide vest goes off, the wearer tends to identify as a detached head. I suppose you can still have a look to see if it's bearded
    harsh
  • Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    There are some facts being pointlessly withheld. For instance, did the bomber identify as a man or a woman?
    After a suicide vest goes off, the wearer tends to identify as a detached head. I suppose you can still have a look to see if it's bearded
    A person with a beard might still identify as a woman or non-binary.
    Unlikely to be the top concern of that person if their head is detached though.
  • I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    More evidence of stress in the Trump Organisation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59257319

    The money paid to that hotel by foreign governments during his Presidency stinks to high heaven but its the loss of a prestigious site in Washington itself, near the Whitehouse. It also suggests, again, that the Trump name is not an asset in running such a business. His claim to be a successful businessman is rapidly catching up with his claim that the election was stolen in credibility.

    The family fortune was made by his father Fred Trump who was something of a teenage genius, buying real estate in his mother's (Donald's Grandmother) name at first because he was under age.

    They went on to make a vast fortune by buying up chunks of Manhattan at rock bottom prices when people were forced to sell during the Great Depression.

    Fred had to retire in in 1990s because he developed Alzheimer's disease and he choose to hand over nearly all the family wealth to Donald because his eldest son, Fred Jnr. was a chronic alcoholic.

    When he first became President someone calculated that if Donald had simply put all the money on deposit, he would have more money than he has now after his mostly unsuccessful business career.
    Was it Fred's father who kept (ahem) short-term hotels?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Grant Shapps had to be asked to stop summoning staff to talk about recreational flight during collapse of Thomas Cook - the biggest repatriation since Dunkirk, say two civil servants

    He "backed off" after CAA chair intervened


    Govt disputes this account
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/62eb0e48-44c9-11ec-b414-b1f6389ab345?shareToken=d37fc7e81435dff878189a670ecfe0ac
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    edited November 15
    France may have vaccinated more people, but have they vaccinated the right people?


    https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1459958446342774787?s=20


    Remember 98% vs 96% isn't "about the same" it's 2% unvaccinated vs 4% unvaccinated - in other words its twice as good.
  • Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: surprised Ladbrokes has the pair equal (1.83) for the title. Betfair has Hamilton slight outsider at 2.1.

    He was significantly faster at Interlagos than Verstappen. But he also had a new engine which he had to cane for two hours (not including qualifying).

    I do think Hamilton has a decent shot of retaining the title, but Ricciardo's engine-related DNF is a serious concern.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632

    Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    Boosters for all?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Harold Wilson should be there; Premier or Championship. Although if he's only Championship Cameron ought to be relegated!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319
    I wish people would stop the disgusting and offensive transphobic comments on here. They're neither funny nor clever and merely display the ignorance and unpleasant nature of those making them.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319

    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Harold Wilson should be there; Premier or Championship. Although if he's only Championship Cameron ought to be relegated!
    Longer than 50 years ago. Otherwise I'd put him in the Championship, definitely.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701
    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    I'd disagree on a fair few:

    - Gordon Brown should be in the Conference - absolutely awful;

    - Jim Callaghan Division One - he inherited a very poor position (economic crisis, strikes, no majority) and did with it as best as he could;

    - Teresa May - Div 2 but only because she tried so hard on Brexit. Blew an election, no majority, split her party

    - John Major - Championship - small majority, split party but economic policy a success

    - BJ - Championship but too early - massive majority for the Tories

    - Blair - I am tempted to put him into whatever Godforsaken minor league there is - tactically brilliant but, when it came to making decisions that impacted the country longer-term, a f**king disaster
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    I think you're underestimating the importance of "winning elections" which would see Johnson (for all his failings) promoted while May and Brown (for all their personal qualities) demoted.

    I also wouldn't rank Cameron above Major. Major is often underestimated, without him the Thatcher reforms would have been rolled back by a Kinnock government.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811
    Heathener said:

    I wish people would stop the disgusting and offensive transphobic comments on here. They're neither funny nor clever and merely display the ignorance and unpleasant nature of those making them.

    I can't imagine what it would be like to be transphobic. The joke is at the expense of lefty wannabes who have arbitrarily selected transsexuals as an issue to be posturing wankers about, now that Palestine is a bit passé.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,622
    Gordon Brown was the best Prime Minister in that period. Also the worst Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  • Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    Boosters for all?
    One of my grandsons (12) and his father (double vaccinated) have been diagnosed with covid this morning

    Indeed my grandson has not been vaccinated yet through Wales NHS
  • Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    I think you're underestimating the importance of "winning elections" which would see Johnson (for all his failings) promoted while May and Brown (for all their personal qualities) demoted.

    I also wouldn't rank Cameron above Major. Major is often underestimated, without him the Thatcher reforms would have been rolled back by a Kinnock government.
    Also, you cannot set aside that Major is a decent man. I disagreed with him politically but he passionately cared for his country and for people. It wasn't an easy balance maintaining the winning Thatcherite platform and shaving off the harshest edges but he did it.
  • Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Ironically, the two Conservative Prime Ministers at the bottom of your league table might be the most significant. Ted Heath took us into Europe; Boris took us out.

    Of the rest, I'd move Gordon Brown up for his handling of the global financial crisis, and David Cameron to the bottom as our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. He gave us Lansley's disastrous NHS reforms, IDS's UC which was undermined by the Chancellor, flatlined the recovery and attempted to rig the electoral system. He almost lost Scotland and did lose Europe. Even if you think Brexit a good thing, it was clearly not Cameron's government's policy.

    Boris is sui generis. I find it impossible to rate him on the same scale as the others.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    edited November 15

    Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    Boosters for all?
    "Update on Boosters program" mentioned on R4 just now - Oliver Dowden
  • I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    You may be correct in your last sentence but Boris has the ability to surprise, especially when campaigning
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    So I got out my crayons. Bit in yellow is the original eastern leg of HS2. And the bits in orange are the “two new high speed lines” as briefed. And then it becomes clear… the easiest way to get TWO new rail lines is to… simply not build the middle section of the original plan! https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1459843398282657792/photo/1
  • Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    You think something might be up? Or down!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    Scott_xP said:

    So I got out my crayons. Bit in yellow is the original eastern leg of HS2. And the bits in orange are the “two new high speed lines” as briefed. And then it becomes clear… the easiest way to get TWO new rail lines is to… simply not build the middle section of the original plan! https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1459843398282657792/photo/1

    Only in Britain could we end up with this half arsed mess.

    We just cannot do infrastructure. Well, not since Victoria was on the throne.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811

    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Ironically, the two Conservative Prime Ministers at the bottom of your league table might be the most significant. Ted Heath took us into Europe; Boris took us out.

    Of the rest, I'd move Gordon Brown up for his handling of the global financial crisis, and David Cameron to the bottom as our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. He gave us Lansley's disastrous NHS reforms, IDS's UC which was undermined by the Chancellor, flatlined the recovery and attempted to rig the electoral system. He almost lost Scotland and did lose Europe. Even if you think Brexit a good thing, it was clearly not Cameron's government's policy.

    Boris is sui generis. I find it impossible to rate him on the same scale as the others.
    I think anyone who says "worst Prime Minister since Lord North" should be made to write 2000 words to be marked by @ydoethur on North's strengths and weaknesses. He lost America at a time when generals not PMs won or lost wars. On the other hand he had an impressively long tenure, over 10 years I think, for some of which he was simultaneously CotE.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,579

    Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    You think something might be up? Or down!
    It’s been trailed - boosters for U50’s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    As Waterson points out the Brum to Notts link ends at Parkway, which is literally in the middle of some fields in the middle of nowhere. EM airport is close, but otherwise it links you to some sheep and the last coal power station in UK (closing soon obviously).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Ironically, the two Conservative Prime Ministers at the bottom of your league table might be the most significant. Ted Heath took us into Europe; Boris took us out.

    Of the rest, I'd move Gordon Brown up for his handling of the global financial crisis, and David Cameron to the bottom as our worst Prime Minister since Lord North. He gave us Lansley's disastrous NHS reforms, IDS's UC which was undermined by the Chancellor, flatlined the recovery and attempted to rig the electoral system. He almost lost Scotland and did lose Europe. Even if you think Brexit a good thing, it was clearly not Cameron's government's policy.

    Boris is sui generis. I find it impossible to rate him on the same scale as the others.
    I think anyone who says "worst Prime Minister since Lord North" should be made to write 2000 words to be marked by @ydoethur on North's strengths and weaknesses. He lost America at a time when generals not PMs won or lost wars. On the other hand he had an impressively long tenure, over 10 years I think, for some of which he was simultaneously CotE.
    The war could have been avoided
  • Reading commentary on the COP26 deal - some anger about how India and China kyboshed the stronger text with supposedly the US and EU watching on.

    Here is realpolitik - you can't force these other countries to sign a deal they don't want to - or stick to it regardless of what they sign. What are we to do, war with China over coal?

    What we should be doing is leading the charge to replace fossil fuels, so that we can both push the technology needed and sell it for profit. Lets throw resources at leading edge Hydrogen (for trucks and buses) and wind / tidal power. That way as countries like India and China start coming off coal there is something there to offer as a replacement.

    Never mind cash for honours and dodgy PPE contracts, lets have cash for R&D, for manufacturing, for technology. Down the road in Aberdeen and across the county we are set up for both ends of the process - carbon capture from fossil fuels, Hydrogen already powers buses and some hire cars, and we're generating a lot of wind power and tidal is coming.

    But it needs cash and vision. And the Tories keep saying no.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Oliver Dowden seems to be suggesting to Nick Robinson that the proof the Ofcom appointment process isn’t corrupt is that Paul Dacre doesn’t yet have the job. Which has weird implications for if he does
    https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1460162573748293632
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932

    Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    You think something might be up? Or down!
    It’s been trailed - boosters for U50’s.
    I read that as boosters first UFOs and though you were @moonshine
  • Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    You think something might be up? Or down!
    It’s been trailed - boosters for U50’s.
    We need a press conference for that? Is Boris trolling the Speaker by not announcing it in the Commons first? Parliament is sitting today.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811

    Reading commentary on the COP26 deal - some anger about how India and China kyboshed the stronger text with supposedly the US and EU watching on.

    Here is realpolitik - you can't force these other countries to sign a deal they don't want to - or stick to it regardless of what they sign. What are we to do, war with China over coal?

    What we should be doing is leading the charge to replace fossil fuels, so that we can both push the technology needed and sell it for profit. Lets throw resources at leading edge Hydrogen (for trucks and buses) and wind / tidal power. That way as countries like India and China start coming off coal there is something there to offer as a replacement.

    Never mind cash for honours and dodgy PPE contracts, lets have cash for R&D, for manufacturing, for technology. Down the road in Aberdeen and across the county we are set up for both ends of the process - carbon capture from fossil fuels, Hydrogen already powers buses and some hire cars, and we're generating a lot of wind power and tidal is coming.

    But it needs cash and vision. And the Tories keep saying no.

    China is doing a pretty good job of leading the charge and developing the technology on its own. It has stacks more renewable, evs etc than we do, it's just that you can't do an industrial revolution without coal and steel and concrete.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,975

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    You may be correct in your last sentence but Boris has the ability to surprise, especially when campaigning
    Except Johnson needs rubbish discredited opponents - like Corbyn and Livingstone. Never been tested against someone mediocre or better.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    I think the argument is “the fact that we have to keep moving the goalposts proves that we respect the goalposts”
    https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1460163666087751681
  • Reading commentary on the COP26 deal - some anger about how India and China kyboshed the stronger text with supposedly the US and EU watching on.

    Here is realpolitik - you can't force these other countries to sign a deal they don't want to - or stick to it regardless of what they sign. What are we to do, war with China over coal?

    What we should be doing is leading the charge to replace fossil fuels, so that we can both push the technology needed and sell it for profit. Lets throw resources at leading edge Hydrogen (for trucks and buses) and wind / tidal power. That way as countries like India and China start coming off coal there is something there to offer as a replacement.

    Never mind cash for honours and dodgy PPE contracts, lets have cash for R&D, for manufacturing, for technology. Down the road in Aberdeen and across the county we are set up for both ends of the process - carbon capture from fossil fuels, Hydrogen already powers buses and some hire cars, and we're generating a lot of wind power and tidal is coming.

    But it needs cash and vision. And the Tories keep saying no.

    Investment? Vision? You are Dominic Cummings AICMFP. :wink:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Oliver Dowden getting lost in a cul-de-sac of nonsense as he flails to defend sleaze & corruption allegations

    #r4today

    https://twitter.com/JoelTaylorhack/status/1460162502382305283
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    The argument is, in essence: "If we were REALLY corrupt, you'd never have caught us."

    Otherwise known as the Scooby Doo defence.
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1460164217856790533/photo/1
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,307
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    More evidence of stress in the Trump Organisation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59257319

    The money paid to that hotel by foreign governments during his Presidency stinks to high heaven but its the loss of a prestigious site in Washington itself, near the Whitehouse. It also suggests, again, that the Trump name is not an asset in running such a business. His claim to be a successful businessman is rapidly catching up with his claim that the election was stolen in credibility.

    The family fortune was made by his father Fred Trump who was something of a teenage genius, buying real estate in his mother's (Donald's Grandmother) name at first because he was under age.

    They went on to make a vast fortune by buying up chunks of Manhattan at rock bottom prices when people were forced to sell during the Great Depression.

    Fred had to retire in in 1990s because he developed Alzheimer's disease and he choose to hand over nearly all the family wealth to Donald because his eldest son, Fred Jnr. was a chronic alcoholic.

    When he first became President someone calculated that if Donald had simply put all the money on deposit, he would have more money than he has now after his mostly unsuccessful business career.
    Was it Fred's father who kept (ahem) short-term hotels?
    Friedrich Trump first left Germany aged 16 and moved to New York where he became an apprentice barber, then he joined the Klondike Gold Rush where he opened a restaurant for the prospectors which doubled as a brothel.

    With the money he made from that he went back to Germany and got married, but he soon returned to the US to avoid military service and became an American citizen, Fred was born in 1905.

    Friedrich worked as a hotel manager in New York and died in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    As Waterson points out the Brum to Notts link ends at Parkway, which is literally in the middle of some fields in the middle of nowhere. EM airport is close, but otherwise it links you to some sheep and the last coal power station in UK (closing soon obviously).

    It's clear that no one has explained that the greatest advantages actually come from the Leeds extension which opens capacity across both the East Coast and Midland Mainline tracks.

    With the new plan their improve capacity to Nottingham / Derby from London and if I'm being generous the cross country capacity into Birmingham from Nottingham.

    I'm seriously tempted to say it's a worse plan than scrapping it in its entirety except for the fact if its half built building the rest would rapidly make commercial sense.
  • Scott_xP said:

    So I got out my crayons. Bit in yellow is the original eastern leg of HS2. And the bits in orange are the “two new high speed lines” as briefed. And then it becomes clear… the easiest way to get TWO new rail lines is to… simply not build the middle section of the original plan! https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1459843398282657792/photo/1

    Only in Britain could we end up with this half arsed mess.

    We just cannot do infrastructure. Well, not since Victoria was on the throne.
    Its utterly utterly stupid. I almost get the Kingsbury - East Midlands section if it wasn't for the fact they're truncating the thing at a badly located East Midlands parkway. The claims about Birmingham to Nottingham times are laughable.

    The northern section? Delusional. Exit from Leeds towards Sheffield isn't at capacity, but the section through Rotherham and Meadowhall to the hopeless Sheffield Midland is at capacity. Only building this northern section does nothing but still smashes up Leeds city centre so that the new slightly faster but still slow trains to Sheffield have a vast terminus to rattle around in. Again, journey time claims hysterical.

    If we need to speed up journeys along this access then build it properly. Don;t build two sections so you can claim they are two new lines as a distraction from having cancelled NPR across the Pennines.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484
    edited November 15
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Paging the PB Travel Club:

    Planning a road trip to the Italian Lakes next summer and we fancy coimng back via Austria with a few nights stop somewhere.

    I don't know Austria at all, what's our best bet for a stop... Innsbruck? Salzburg? Vienna is a bit out of the way since we have to drive back to the Channel

    I saw this from last night - Sean’s suggestion of the South Tyrol was on the money in terms of its attractions, but not necessarily the geography. It depends which lake you are finishing at. If your trip ends at Garda, then heading up through the Brenner can be the way home, and South Tyrol is a great extra stop - Bolzano or Brixen, as he said, or Merano, for a small detour or Ortisei for a moderate detour.

    But you’ll still then have a long drive home, too long for a single leg. Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    However if you’re at the western lakes it would obviously be more sensible to come back through Switzerland, and even from Iseo Austria would be a considerable detour. Indeed Garda via Austria is more driving than via France or Switzerland, assuming you’re heading for Calais or similar.

    You can buy Austrian motorway passes online provided you do so at least two weeks before the journey.
    Swiss don't half rob you to pass through though. Salzberg is beautiful but your suggestion of Fussen area is a good one , it is beautiful around there. Used to weekend in Hohen Schwangau when I was in Munich. @Benpointer
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Reading commentary on the COP26 deal - some anger about how India and China kyboshed the stronger text with supposedly the US and EU watching on.

    Here is realpolitik - you can't force these other countries to sign a deal they don't want to - or stick to it regardless of what they sign. What are we to do, war with China over coal?

    What we should be doing is leading the charge to replace fossil fuels, so that we can both push the technology needed and sell it for profit. Lets throw resources at leading edge Hydrogen (for trucks and buses) and wind / tidal power. That way as countries like India and China start coming off coal there is something there to offer as a replacement.

    Never mind cash for honours and dodgy PPE contracts, lets have cash for R&D, for manufacturing, for technology. Down the road in Aberdeen and across the county we are set up for both ends of the process - carbon capture from fossil fuels, Hydrogen already powers buses and some hire cars, and we're generating a lot of wind power and tidal is coming.

    But it needs cash and vision. And the Tories keep saying no.

    Yes, there is a lot of sense in this and a lot to gain by doing so. We already have a fair bit going on with hydrogen at the moment and further investment recently announced and wind has a lot of investment with more to come. We can do more and should and we should certainly invest in tidal power. It is not a bleak picture but the govt should invest more for certain.
  • I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    You may be correct in your last sentence but Boris has the ability to surprise, especially when campaigning
    Except Johnson needs rubbish discredited opponents - like Corbyn and Livingstone. Never been tested against someone mediocre or better.
    Fair comment, and he may not even be in office, but assuming the conservatives cannot win with Boris is quite an assumption
  • eek said:

    As Waterson points out the Brum to Notts link ends at Parkway, which is literally in the middle of some fields in the middle of nowhere. EM airport is close, but otherwise it links you to some sheep and the last coal power station in UK (closing soon obviously).

    It's clear that no one has explained that the greatest advantages actually come from the Leeds extension which opens capacity across both the East Coast and Midland Mainline tracks.

    With the new plan their improve capacity to Nottingham / Derby from London and if I'm being generous the cross country capacity into Birmingham from Nottingham.

    I'm seriously tempted to say it's a worse plan than scrapping it in its entirety except for the fact if its half built building the rest would rapidly make commercial sense.
    If they are phasing construction - as in start at both ends and work inwards then ok. But seemingly not, they have cancelled it. Which means huge expense and disruption especially in Leeds for no real gains. And as you say the bottlenecks on the East Coast remain unsolved.

    I get that some MPs don't want to spend the money. Fine. Cancel it then. Don't waste gazillions building pointless bits that get left as a white elephant.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564

    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Harold Wilson should be there; Premier or Championship. Although if he's only Championship Cameron ought to be relegated!
    Indeed. And Johnson is rather some non-league team that won the cup through some freak series of accidents.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    You may be correct in your last sentence but Boris has the ability to surprise, especially when campaigning
    He certainly has his cheerleaders on here who think he is the Messiah.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,242
    DavidL said:

    More evidence of stress in the Trump Organisation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59257319

    The money paid to that hotel by foreign governments during his Presidency stinks to high heaven but its the loss of a prestigious site in Washington itself, near the Whitehouse. It also suggests, again, that the Trump name is not an asset in running such a business. His claim to be a successful businessman is rapidly catching up with his claim that the election was stolen in credibility.

    It's a combination of -

    1) His "empire" is a pile of debt. While this is in the style of the old style "billionaires" before Silicon Valley created people with an actual billion or 2... his empire is particularly built on bullshit.
    2) He has completely toxified his brand with 50% of the population.

    2) is feeding into 1) - People don't want to be seen to be doing business with him, because of 2)

    Which is particularly problematic when it comes to banks which finance 1)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516

    Heathener said:

    Prime Ministers of the last 50 years ranked (by me)

    PREMIER LEAGUE

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair


    CHAMPIONSHIP

    David Cameron


    DIVISION ONE

    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Theresa May


    DIVISION TWO

    Ted Heath
    Jim Callaghan
    Boris Johnson

    Harold Wilson should be there; Premier or Championship. Although if he's only Championship Cameron ought to be relegated!
    Wilson did introduce a lot of social reforms but he and Callaghan, Brown and Heath left the worst economic legacies
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    It depends on hte seat, There are Red Wall marginals, like Darlington, High Peak, and some pretty flukey wins, like Burnley or Leigh, which Labour could easily win back.

    But there are seats where the Labour vote has simply collapsed, over the course of 20 years, in ex-mining constituencies. I see those seats going the same way as places like Forest of Dean or NW Leicestershire.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    edited November 15
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Paging the PB Travel Club:

    Planning a road trip to the Italian Lakes next summer and we fancy coimng back via Austria with a few nights stop somewhere.

    I don't know Austria at all, what's our best bet for a stop... Innsbruck? Salzburg? Vienna is a bit out of the way since we have to drive back to the Channel

    I saw this from last night - Sean’s suggestion of the South Tyrol was on the money in terms of its attractions, but not necessarily the geography. It depends which lake you are finishing at. If your trip ends at Garda, then heading up through the Brenner can be the way home, and South Tyrol is a great extra stop - Bolzano or Brixen, as he said, or Merano, for a small detour or Ortisei for a moderate detour.

    But you’ll still then have a long drive home, too long for a single leg. Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    However if you’re at the western lakes it would obviously be more sensible to come back through Switzerland, and even from Iseo Austria would be a considerable detour. Indeed Garda via Austria is more driving than via France or Switzerland, assuming you’re heading for Calais or similar.

    You can buy Austrian motorway passes online provided you do so at least two weeks before the journey.
    Swiss don't half rob you to pass through though. Salzberg is beautiful but your suggestion of Fussen area is a good one , it is beautiful around there. Used to weekend in Hohen Schwangau when I was in Munich. @Benpointer
    The Swiss are certainly good at fleecing travellers - but then robbing people passing through the Alps has been that country's business model dating back to ancient times.

    But the iniquity of the annual pass is really that the Swiss themselves pay so little. If you compare the €40-odd Swiss pass, for doing a single or return trip across the entire country en route from the UK, to the cost you pay on the French motorways for a similar length, it isn't so bad.

    I was in Schwangau just two months' back, stayed at the edge of that flat plain just below the castles, with the mountain views, and a great beer garden just along the road. I hope to return on a future trip. I'm sure we all know the closing scenes of the Great Escape, with McQueen being pursued through Alpine countryside on his motorbike - that was all filmed in that area, between Fussen and Pfronten.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.

    Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476
    malcolmg said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    You may be correct in your last sentence but Boris has the ability to surprise, especially when campaigning
    He certainly has his cheerleaders on here who think he is the Messiah.
    Nah, he’s just a very naughty boy
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    eek said:

    As Waterson points out the Brum to Notts link ends at Parkway, which is literally in the middle of some fields in the middle of nowhere. EM airport is close, but otherwise it links you to some sheep and the last coal power station in UK (closing soon obviously).

    It's clear that no one has explained that the greatest advantages actually come from the Leeds extension which opens capacity across both the East Coast and Midland Mainline tracks.

    With the new plan their improve capacity to Nottingham / Derby from London and if I'm being generous the cross country capacity into Birmingham from Nottingham.

    I'm seriously tempted to say it's a worse plan than scrapping it in its entirety except for the fact if its half built building the rest would rapidly make commercial sense.
    If they are phasing construction - as in start at both ends and work inwards then ok. But seemingly not, they have cancelled it. Which means huge expense and disruption especially in Leeds for no real gains. And as you say the bottlenecks on the East Coast remain unsolved.

    I get that some MPs don't want to spend the money. Fine. Cancel it then. Don't waste gazillions building pointless bits that get left as a white elephant.
    Oh I know the new plan is an utter waste of money - I just hope that were the two bits built a sensible future Government would finish the project (as the benefits would easily outweigh the costs).

    As for the loss of Northern Power Rail - I will be paying more attention to the announcement or not of platforms 15/16 at Manchester Piccadilly (as that is one of the major blocks in the North West nowadays).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
    Indeed. I don't remember the IRA ever dropping anything from the air.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,753
    edited November 15

    DavidL said:

    More evidence of stress in the Trump Organisation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59257319

    The money paid to that hotel by foreign governments during his Presidency stinks to high heaven but its the loss of a prestigious site in Washington itself, near the Whitehouse. It also suggests, again, that the Trump name is not an asset in running such a business. His claim to be a successful businessman is rapidly catching up with his claim that the election was stolen in credibility.

    It's a combination of -

    1) His "empire" is a pile of debt. While this is in the style of the old style "billionaires" before Silicon Valley created people with an actual billion or 2... his empire is particularly built on bullshit.
    2) He has completely toxified his brand with 50% of the population.

    2) is feeding into 1) - People don't want to be seen to be doing business with him, because of 2)

    Which is particularly problematic when it comes to banks which finance 1)
    One odd thing about Donald Trump that we forget is that his fortune was propped up at a crucial time by The Apprentice, which added about $400 million to Trump's bottom line because he co-owned it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,307
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Whilst Johnson absolutely cut through into the red wall, I'm not sure that will still be the case. Brexit is done, Covid is done, and people will get to the election worse off not better off as promised. Whats more they will have seen the Tories line their own pockets at the same time as picking theirs.

    News this week about the broken promises on northern infrastructure won't help either. They can win the next election but not with Johnson.
    You may be correct in your last sentence but Boris has the ability to surprise, especially when campaigning
    He certainly has his cheerleaders on here who think he is the Messiah.
    Nah, he’s just a very naughty boy
    Brilliant, how ever did you pluck that fabulously obscure gem from murky depths of comedy history?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,918
    malcolmg said:



    Swiss don't half rob you to pass through though.

    I got a 4,000 CHF fine and 3 month driving ban in Swizterland than began with immediate effect on the Grimsel pass. I waited until the cops left and then nicked a number plate off a German registered R1200GS to put on my MV. I then went full Five Star Grand Theft Auto to the Italian border.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    edited November 15
    HYUFD said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.

    Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
    Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against).
    Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.

    And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
  • IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
    Indeed. I don't remember the IRA ever dropping anything from the air.
    The worrying thing is that explosives were used at all, as it suggests far more planning and logistical support than some idiot grabbing a kitchen knife on his way out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080
    Heathener said:

    I wish people would stop the disgusting and offensive transphobic comments on here. They're neither funny nor clever and merely display the ignorance and unpleasant nature of those making them.

    I've noted before that it reminds me of the gay jokes which were around a couple of decades or so back.
    Embarrassing stuff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    I wish people would stop the disgusting and offensive transphobic comments on here. They're neither funny nor clever and merely display the ignorance and unpleasant nature of those making them.

    I can't imagine what it would be like to be transphobic. The joke is at the expense of lefty wannabes who have arbitrarily selected transsexuals as an issue to be posturing wankers about, now that Palestine is a bit passé.
    Sure.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,320
    edited November 15
    HYUFD said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.

    Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
    I expect Boris will continue in office for a while but he is losing his popularity and needs to get a grip quickly if he wants to lead into GE24

    Yesterday he said he saw the Queen on wednesday when it was friday, referred to Edinburgh re COP26 and his dress sense at times is embarrassing and justifies the contrast to Benny Hill

    He is in the greatest danger since taking office, and many see him as a diminishing asset to the party
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,242
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:
    BBC Breakfast news had the police still not confirming it was a bomb (ETA maybe it wasn't, if a suicide vest is different) and it is hard to know how much more can be reported if the police are withholding information that is clearly already known to the bad guys.
    Almost nobody uses bombs, as technically a bomb is an explosive device dropped from the air.

    So the police can use semantics to not confirm it was a bombing.
    I mean, that's not even remotely true. If there are some people who use the word only in that specific way, that's all well and good, but language isn't a technocracy. The vast majority will use "bomb" for most anything that it built to go boom, dropped or not.
    Indeed. I don't remember the IRA ever dropping anything from the air.
    Such things are not helped by the usual; behaviour by journalists...

    image
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,452
    HYUFD said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.

    Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
    Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,827
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Paging the PB Travel Club:

    Planning a road trip to the Italian Lakes next summer and we fancy coimng back via Austria with a few nights stop somewhere.

    I don't know Austria at all, what's our best bet for a stop... Innsbruck? Salzburg? Vienna is a bit out of the way since we have to drive back to the Channel

    I saw this from last night - Sean’s suggestion of the South Tyrol was on the money in terms of its attractions, but not necessarily the geography. It depends which lake you are finishing at. If your trip ends at Garda, then heading up through the Brenner can be the way home, and South Tyrol is a great extra stop - Bolzano or Brixen, as he said, or Merano, for a small detour or Ortisei for a moderate detour.

    But you’ll still then have a long drive home, too long for a single leg. Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    However if you’re at the western lakes it would obviously be more sensible to come back through Switzerland, and even from Iseo Austria would be a considerable detour. Indeed Garda via Austria is more driving than via France or Switzerland, assuming you’re heading for Calais or similar.

    You can buy Austrian motorway passes online provided you do so at least two weeks before the journey.
    Swiss don't half rob you to pass through though. Salzberg is beautiful but your suggestion of Fussen area is a good one , it is beautiful around there. Used to weekend in Hohen Schwangau when I was in Munich. @Benpointer
    Like the websites that charge you as a wraparound on free services, in Czechia they put kiosks in front of the machines at border entry points, and add money to do the purchase.

    Does this take place n Austria?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.

    Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
    Yes Major's win in 92 was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Tories. If they had just lost to Kinnock they would probably have been back in 96 or 97. I think Major did a good job in winning and governing considering the internal fighting. It is ironic that doing a good job resulted in years out of government.
    Likewise Cameron's surprise win is 2015 - when even he was hoping for another coalition (to allow awkward manifesto bits to be removed).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 15
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't stand Johnson personally and think he is a dire PM and worse person.

    But they'd be crazy to ditch him. I'm afraid the truth is he reaches parts other Tories cannot reach. A more traditional Tory may save Esher, but that's not worth doing at the expense of red wall seats, which it would be. And the people who are similar to Johnson in populist instincts lack his charisma.

    It's a populist problem, not unlike the Republican problem. It would take time to rebrand as traditional GOP. And Trump isn't ideal for populists (even less ideal than Johnson) but a smoother tribute act like just Josh Hawley just won't work - he's not an authentic enough nutcase, and the hardcore fear he's actually borderline sane but faking it.

    Indeed, Boris is the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher and the Tories lost 3 out of 4 general elections after they removed her.

    Sunak might just about be Major to Boris' Thatcher if Labour start to build a big lead in the polls with Starmer as Kinnock but Major's premiership after his narrow re election was all downhill
    Thatcher at least you knew what she stood for (and against).
    Boris promised levelling up and if the forthcoming railways announcements are as leaked - he's failed. As for where he stands on anything - that depends on who is talking to him that moment and in 5 minutes he will have done another u-turn.

    And that failure added to corruption is going to be long term damaging to a party that with Boris has already turned it's back on it's historic supporters.
    In 2019 Boris held almost all the party's historic supporters (bar a few diehard Remainers) and won seats in the North and Midlands and North Wales no Tory leader had won since Thatcher and indeed some working class seats even Thatcher did not win.

    Ditching an electorally successful leader never ends well for the party longer term, as the Tories found out when they removed Thatcher and Labour found out when it pushed Blair out for Brown
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:



    Swiss don't half rob you to pass through though.

    I got a 4,000 CHF fine and 3 month driving ban in Swizterland than began with immediate effect on the Grimsel pass. I waited until the cops left and then nicked a number plate off a German registered R1200GS to put on my MV. I then went full Five Star Grand Theft Auto to the Italian border.
    I've been waiting for a Swiss speeding fine from one of those cameras that very clearly went off as I passed through a tunnel near Lucerne. But no sign of it yet, and doing some Googling it appears that a (probably temporary) 'benefit' of Brexit is that we're no longer sharing drivers' details with Switzerland. So I could be in line for a special Brexit dividend all of my own....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Paging the PB Travel Club:

    Planning a road trip to the Italian Lakes next summer and we fancy coimng back via Austria with a few nights stop somewhere.

    I don't know Austria at all, what's our best bet for a stop... Innsbruck? Salzburg? Vienna is a bit out of the way since we have to drive back to the Channel

    I saw this from last night - Sean’s suggestion of the South Tyrol was on the money in terms of its attractions, but not necessarily the geography. It depends which lake you are finishing at. If your trip ends at Garda, then heading up through the Brenner can be the way home, and South Tyrol is a great extra stop - Bolzano or Brixen, as he said, or Merano, for a small detour or Ortisei for a moderate detour.

    But you’ll still then have a long drive home, too long for a single leg. Tubingen or Freiburg are great spots for an overnight to break the driving. Or Fussen, which is a great stopover, if not that far into the driving.

    However if you’re at the western lakes it would obviously be more sensible to come back through Switzerland, and even from Iseo Austria would be a considerable detour. Indeed Garda via Austria is more driving than via France or Switzerland, assuming you’re heading for Calais or similar.

    You can buy Austrian motorway passes online provided you do so at least two weeks before the journey.
    Swiss don't half rob you to pass through though. Salzberg is beautiful but your suggestion of Fussen area is a good one , it is beautiful around there. Used to weekend in Hohen Schwangau when I was in Munich. @Benpointer
    Like the websites that charge you as a wraparound on free services, in Czechia they put kiosks in front of the machines at border entry points, and add money to do the purchase.

    Does this take place n Austria?
    You can stop and buy at the border, and there are plenty of signs as you enter warning drivers (in German and English) of the fines if you don't have a vignette. But provided you pay 14 days in advance (because there's a cooling off period during which you can cancel, so they don't sell them at short notice) it's very easy to buy the pass, plus any special tolls for stretches like the Brenner, online.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    Do we usually have 09:30 Covid pressers?
    Boosters for all?
    One of my grandsons (12) and his father (double vaccinated) have been diagnosed with covid this morning

    Indeed my grandson has not been vaccinated yet through Wales NHS
    Sad to read that Mr G. However, as one who contracted Covid after being double vaccinated, I can attest that it wasn't nearly as bad as might have been had we not been vaccinated. I had one flu-like day and a bit of a cough; Mrs C had a cough which lasted about a week. Both coughs were infected though, from the appearance of the sputum, but responded well to antibiotics.
    We're fine now.
    Much younger relatives have had it and recovered well.
This discussion has been closed.