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Midterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall – politicalbetting.com
Midterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall – politicalbetting.com
After the Virginia Gubernatorial election ends over a decade of straight Democrat wins in the state, one question looms large. Is this a taster of what will happen at the Midterms? Very probably it is.
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Danny Altmann
@Daltmann10
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Nov 2
Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/538039486731227262/
Or does he only do diesels?
Thurnberg herself says it is all Greenwash and 'blah'.
This is just not reality. Close to a lie perhaps? Loads is being done, step by step. You can say it isn't fast enough but you can't say nothing is being done. Even Caroline Lucas says even tiny steps help.
Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...
... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
IanB2
"The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."
+++++
The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats
History does not work the way you think
Next time he wins he will win forever
Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.
Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
Perhaps tomorrow we'll get a Class 31 or 33?
It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register
It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register
That’s actually a reasonable approach
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
I sense from your many posts that you're ok with pretty much all the social liberalisation to date around race, gender, disability, sexual orientation - much of which would have been pretty radical back when we were kids.
So I genuinely wonder if you think we've gone far enough, or too far, and if the latter what is too far?
Or maybe you agree there is still more to do to increase diversity and reduce discrimination?
https://twitter.com/profcornpop/status/1456328789672202248
They weren't "forced" into doing anything.
Good job there is no parallels like that today
It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/05/record-number-of-people-cross-channel-to-uk-in-small-boats
Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
Weren't they up in 2016. Six year terms.
(Masks, social distancing, wfh etc)
Listening to Thunberg's speech I got a bit of a Corbynista vibe from the audience response. They were cheering the catch phrases from their hero, even though quite a lot of what she was saying is provably wrong. It's all getting a bit cultish, which is a shame as I do believe that Thunberg has done a lot to focus attention on the issue of climate change, and I don't doubt that her intension is good.
Saxony - 59.1%
That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/
Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?
Curious
Had a good night tonight going to a local fireworks display, hope everyone's having a good weekend.
A weird thing I'd never seen before happened twice tonight during the display. Twice the fireworks suddenly stopped dead without any notice in the middle of the display only to have the DJ apologise and say there was a security concern and please do not climb over the fence. About a ten minute (or what felt like it) silence with just music playing before they were able to resume the fireworks both times; what kind of an idiot does that during a display - and what kind of bigger idiot sees them do that, sees the disruption that caused and thinks "I'll do that too"?
It's a rare adult who expresses more than over simplified cliches, and even rarer in a child. However sincere the feeling I dont feel I've gained any understanding from kids regurgitating what are essentially just slogans.
That they are protesting is message enough, it makes its point powerfully enough, without proto Gretas just robototically repeating talking points. This is where figurehead like Greta help more than vox pops. Sure its largely still just slogans - I think the blah blah blah line was good but is already getting overplayed - but it's not as obviously so when its not parroted by mini mes.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
It’s a lot. Any precise number would be inaccurate and made up.
There are very many reasons why the EU is leaning into the suspension of the TCA
But without doubt the *single most important* is to demonstrate solidarity with Ireland
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1456717671895113735?s=20
The twelfth amendment explicitly states that the constitutional requirements as provided for the President also apply for Vice President.
Since the twenty second means someone is barred from becoming President, the twelfth means they're also barred from becoming Vice President.
Which is odd, because Catholic countries like Italy, Portugal and Spain all have very high levels of vaccination.
Frost and Johnson need to call their bluff.
With socio-econonic (race, income, education) as well as geography (urban vs suburban vs rural) key factors along with politics & ideology (including religion).
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
All the low vax states are Red - which is Baden-W and Bavaria in the South, and the former DDR.
That said Trump's support is a largely a personality cult, the GOP don't have anyone else who can replicate his unique appeal or inspire such intense devotion, his family included.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
The MPs code of conduct says that ministers are not different to other MPs in requiring them to report on the MPs register (para 16)
The code of conduct says that gifts from ministers are no different to gifts from others (para 9)
So based on that, he has to declare on the MPs register as well as the ministerial register
The declarable categories include gifts from UK sources (category 3) and visits outside the UK (category 4), both if they're over £300.
Johnson, B.'s argument seems to be that as they're from a friend (but see para 9) the value is zero so not declarable.
You've gone for a variant, saying that it's not possible to calculate a value. But obviously it is, a point you glossed over from my previous post.
So the reasonable, and indeed lawful approach, is to declare it, and its value. So why won't he?
If Germany keeps rising at 35% a week, (which they will not,) then that gets very ... messy
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
However things work in perverse ways, a few months ago when these GOP governor candidates where selected by there party, it looks like the party was thinking, all that matters is to find the best candidate to beet the Deams, and they chose well. from not on, perhaps the GOP, will think 'we are going to win, so which person do I really want in power' and then they will select Trump whanbys and Trump like people, which apart from putting me off will also put off swing voters. if the Dems do the opposite, go from near complacency to concisely choosing moderate looking people, then 2022 may be very different.
Its all about the lessons you learn.
As for issues, in New Jersey the one that nearly did Gov. Murphy in, was fact that he'd actually been quoted as telling folks concerned about rising taxes that "maybe New Jersey isn't the state for you". Which alienated plenty of people in state with VERY high property taxes - including lots who are NOT anti-tax zealots but instead moderate, mostly suburban swing voters - including many moderate Democrats.
And as noted, McAuliffe & Murphy had little to say except Trump, Trump, Trump.
Looking forward to 2022, both parties will take lessons from 2021. For GOP candidates & consultants, hard to believe they will NOT copy what worked - or almost worked - in the Old Dominion and the Garden State.
That's nationalizing the mid-terms, in reverse!
BTW, re: current Woke v Woke culture wars, this is nothing new under the sun in American politics.
Last thread there was mention of French Republican calendar. Well, in the Year IX (late 1800 to me & you) incumbent John Adams and the Federalist Party were attacking Thomas Jefferson and the Republicans (of that day) as godless atheists in league with French terrorists bent on destroying western civilization with their proto-wokism.