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Midterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 5 in General
imageMidterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall – politicalbetting.com

After the Virginia Gubernatorial election ends over a decade of straight Democrat wins in the state, one question looms large. Is this a taster of what will happen at the Midterms? Very probably it is.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Yo!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    Exactly three years tonight we will at our keyboards waiting to see if Trump is back in the White House.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,594
    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    with less than 25% of the testing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Mostly agree... *however* despite the Republicans holding most State governments, the analysis from 538 and others is that changes in demographics mean the Dems are +1 on new boundaries.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    rcs1000 said:

    Mostly agree... *however* despite the Republicans holding most State governments, the analysis from 538 and others is that changes in demographics mean the Dems are +1 on new boundaries.

    I think there are still a few states to agree the new boundary's, so that may change, but overall I don't think it will make much difference.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    Did Sandy post a link to this?

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/538039486731227262/

    Or does he only do diesels?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    edited November 5
    FPT:
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    fpt

    IanB2

    "The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."

    +++++

    The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats

    History does not work the way you think
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    And Godwin has spoken. 12 posts. Good game all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831

    Exactly three years tonight we will at our keyboards waiting to see if Trump is back in the White House.

    God what a depressing thought.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    (Technically we're in the middle. We're doing massively better than Eastern Europe, where death rates are 10x our level on per million basis. We're doing similar or slightly better than Northern Europe - Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, etc. And we're doing worse than Southern Europe. Except Greece. Which is doing really badly.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,258
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    Did Sandy post a link to this?

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/538039486731227262/

    Or does he only do diesels?
    Sorry, I don't do Kettles!

    Perhaps tomorrow we'll get a Class 31 or 33?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Exactly three years tonight we will at our keyboards waiting to see if Trump is back in the White House.

    God what a depressing thought.
    Nah, in 3 years + 1 day, King William V will be Metaversing a message of congratulations to President-Elect Suarez, after President Harris concedes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457

    Exactly three years tonight we will at our keyboards waiting to see if Trump is back in the White House.

    God what a depressing thought.
    Indeed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yep. When Trump wins in 2024 it is game over for American republic. The fabled constitution will not hold him down a second time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    edited November 5
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
    To a neutral and horrified outsider like me, it appears to be the fault of both sides. The extremes. The Woke Maniacs and the Ugly Trumpites. Each egging the other on.

    It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Neutral! 😂
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    You've not really answered my question though.

    I sense from your many posts that you're ok with pretty much all the social liberalisation to date around race, gender, disability, sexual orientation - much of which would have been pretty radical back when we were kids.

    So I genuinely wonder if you think we've gone far enough, or too far, and if the latter what is too far?

    Or maybe you agree there is still more to do to increase diversity and reduce discrimination?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,748
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Microsoft are doing their bit to help him. At their last event, all the speakers announced their race along with their pronouns, and they listed all the Native American tribes whose land their campus appropriated.

    https://twitter.com/profcornpop/status/1456328789672202248
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,594
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    55% vaccination in Brussels, 60% in Wallonia
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Do you not see how it all stinks to high heaven though Charles?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
    To a neutral and horrified outsider like me, it appears to be the fault of both sides. The extremes. The Woke Maniacs and the Ugly Trumpites. Each egging the other on.

    It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
    The history of inter war Germany is one of main-stream Conservatives happily making deals with the fascists even when the consequences were clear and the threat from the socialists minimal.

    They weren't "forced" into doing anything.
    Ah ha! Someone who's actually read some history! Chapeau. You are 100% right.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,258
    Farooq said:

    Neutral! 😂

    Is that the blue wire or the brown wire?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Do you not see how it all stinks to high heaven though Charles?
    This specific item less so. The wallpaper, Patterson etc absolutely
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Farooq said:

    Neutral! 😂

    Is that the blue wire or the brown wire?
    I don't know, but from what I can read tonight they're all loose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    edited November 5
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Do you not see how it all stinks to high heaven though Charles?
    This specific item less so. The wallpaper, Patterson etc absolutely
    It's the Chumocracy writ large. If there's nothing to hide why not be transparent?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    He was POTUS? I think that post sadly grasps at a level of sophistication beyond its reach. He chose not to do stuff, rather than couldn't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
    To a neutral and horrified outsider like me, it appears to be the fault of both sides. The extremes. The Woke Maniacs and the Ugly Trumpites. Each egging the other on.

    It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
    The history of inter war Germany is one of main-stream Conservatives happily making deals with the fascists even when the consequences were clear and the threat from the socialists minimal.

    They weren't "forced" into doing anything.
    Hmm... So the Spartacists are to be air-brushed out of history?
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833



    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Do you not see how it all stinks to high heaven though Charles?
    This specific item less so. The wallpaper, Patterson etc absolutely
    It's the Chumocracy writ large. If there's nothing to hide why not be transparent?
    He’s disclosed it. That’s all that is actually needed.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,580
    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    Although these seats were last up in 2018 when the Dems did very well in the House, but did much worse than expected in the Senate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Well, for a start he is changing the GOP into a Trump cult. No one else gets a look in. Candidates who are non-Trump get thrown out of primary races. Local GOP officials are engineering election fixing rules and so on. 100s maybe 1000s of Trump fanatics have got involved in local GOP parties and are getting on to committees and becoming local chairmen and so on. All over the country GOP is preparing to try and rig the next election and even if they don't win they plan to contest the result once again. The lie that Trump won is believed by millions.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Leaving the EU has really boosted our ability to control immigration, I see.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/05/record-number-of-people-cross-channel-to-uk-in-small-boats
  • maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
    To a neutral and horrified outsider like me, it appears to be the fault of both sides. The extremes. The Woke Maniacs and the Ugly Trumpites. Each egging the other on.

    It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
    The history of inter war Germany is one of main-stream Conservatives happily making deals with the fascists even when the consequences were clear and the threat from the socialists minimal.

    They weren't "forced" into doing anything.
    Hmm... So the Spartacists are to be air-brushed out of history?
    Don't be ridiculous. There was no extreme Left threat against Germany. Stalin was a friend
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    rpjs said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    Although these seats were last up in 2018 when the Dems did very well in the House, but did much worse than expected in the Senate.
    Hang on - won't the 2018 Senate states not be up again until 2024?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    rpjs said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    Although these seats were last up in 2018 when the Dems did very well in the House, but did much worse than expected in the Senate.
    No its a 6 year cycle for the senate so 2022 will be seats last contested in 2016, a very close year IIRC
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    rpjs said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    Although these seats were last up in 2018 when the Dems did very well in the House, but did much worse than expected in the Senate.
    Erm.
    Weren't they up in 2016. Six year terms.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
    Sorry, NPIs =?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
    not sure where you got 17 million from? 5 million is the number most calculating, while it may be more than that, 17 million implies a degree of accuracy, which I don't think is possible,
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
    Sorry, NPIs =?
    Non pharmacological interventions

    (Masks, social distancing, wfh etc)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744

    Fascinating piece on BBC News 10 about the kids protesting at COP26. Time after time, those interviewed saying 'nothing is changing', 'nothing is happening', 'they aren't doing anything' etc etc.

    Thurnberg herself says it is all Greenwash and 'blah'.

    This is just not reality. Close to a lie perhaps? Loads is being done, step by step. You can say it isn't fast enough but you can't say nothing is being done. Even Caroline Lucas says even tiny steps help.

    Anyone saying that nothing is being done is lying.

    Listening to Thunberg's speech I got a bit of a Corbynista vibe from the audience response. They were cheering the catch phrases from their hero, even though quite a lot of what she was saying is provably wrong. It's all getting a bit cultish, which is a shame as I do believe that Thunberg has done a lot to focus attention on the issue of climate change, and I don't doubt that her intension is good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    BigRich said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
    not sure where you got 17 million from? 5 million is the number most calculating, while it may be more than that, 17 million implies a degree of accuracy, which I don't think is possible,
    I think 17 million is the global excess death number, although not all of that will be Covid related.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Isn’t it a constitutional amendment though?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Trump would be 82 by the end of his second term. I'm not sure he'd be going for a third.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Charles said:



    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Do you not see how it all stinks to high heaven though Charles?
    This specific item less so. The wallpaper, Patterson etc absolutely
    It's the Chumocracy writ large. If there's nothing to hide why not be transparent?
    He’s disclosed it. That’s all that is actually needed.
    I'd like to know the value of this holiday. Why is he hiding it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
    But it doesn't mainly seem to be an East/West thing in Germany?

    https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/

    Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?

    Curious
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Isn’t it a constitutional amendment though?
    Yes.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
    not sure where you got 17 million from? 5 million is the number most calculating, while it may be more than that, 17 million implies a degree of accuracy, which I don't think is possible,
    I think 17 million is the global excess death number, although not all of that will be Covid related.
    Maybe, I haven't seen that number before, do you know who estimated it, its a lot bigger than the wouldmeater estimates.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    The Godwins are flying thick and fast tonight I see.

    Had a good night tonight going to a local fireworks display, hope everyone's having a good weekend.

    A weird thing I'd never seen before happened twice tonight during the display. Twice the fireworks suddenly stopped dead without any notice in the middle of the display only to have the DJ apologise and say there was a security concern and please do not climb over the fence. About a ten minute (or what felt like it) silence with just music playing before they were able to resume the fireworks both times; what kind of an idiot does that during a display - and what kind of bigger idiot sees them do that, sees the disruption that caused and thinks "I'll do that too"?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    glw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Delta is significantly more infectious than Alpha which walloped the UK last winter even with a lockdown. The vaccines are doing almost all of the heavy lifting now, the NPIs in total are only marginally useful, once Delta takes hold the NPIs alone will not have much chance of bringing things under control. You would have to be very tough, and get lucky.

    Without vaccines the death toll would be many times larger than the 17 million already dead.
    not sure where you got 17 million from? 5 million is the number most calculating, while it may be more than that, 17 million implies a degree of accuracy, which I don't think is possible,
    I think 17 million is the global excess death number, although not all of that will be Covid related.
    Maybe, I haven't seen that number before, do you know who estimated it, its a lot bigger than the wouldmeater estimates.
    The Economist thinks the true death toll is maybe 3x the official global death toll. So ~17m. It is not unbelievable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 5

    Fascinating piece on BBC News 10 about the kids protesting at COP26. Time after time, those interviewed saying 'nothing is changing', 'nothing is happening', 'they aren't doing anything' etc etc.

    Thurnberg herself says it is all Greenwash and 'blah'.

    This is just not reality. Close to a lie perhaps? Loads is being done, step by step. You can say it isn't fast enough but you can't say nothing is being done. Even Caroline Lucas says even tiny steps help.

    This may reveal me to be an old codger, but I find vox pops of children and teens even more pointless than of adults.

    It's a rare adult who expresses more than over simplified cliches, and even rarer in a child. However sincere the feeling I dont feel I've gained any understanding from kids regurgitating what are essentially just slogans.

    That they are protesting is message enough, it makes its point powerfully enough, without proto Gretas just robototically repeating talking points. This is where figurehead like Greta help more than vox pops. Sure its largely still just slogans - I think the blah blah blah line was good but is already getting overplayed - but it's not as obviously so when its not parroted by mini mes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,739
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
    But it doesn't mainly seem to be an East/West thing in Germany?

    https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/

    Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?

    Curious
    Interesting, are catholic areas or protestant areas more likely go have high vaccination rates?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Isn’t it a constitutional amendment though?
    The XXII only refers to being elected president. It doesn't prevent, say, being elected vice president and then the president resigns on day 1. See also Putin.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744
    BigRich said:

    not sure where you got 17 million from? 5 million is the number most calculating, while it may be more than that, 17 million implies a degree of accuracy, which I don't think is possible,

    17 million is the latest estimate by the Economist for the excess death toll due to the pandemic.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    Charles said:



    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Do you not see how it all stinks to high heaven though Charles?
    This specific item less so. The wallpaper, Patterson etc absolutely
    It's the Chumocracy writ large. If there's nothing to hide why not be transparent?
    He’s disclosed it. That’s all that is actually needed.
    I'd like to know the value of this holiday. Why is he hiding it?
    No matter how prurient you might be there is no obligation to disclose it. There is no list price; there are no good comparables; it’s not available to rent to the public.

    It’s a lot. Any precise number would be inaccurate and made up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Not sure how imposing a hard border in Ireland "demonstrates solidarity with Ireland"?

    There are very many reasons why the EU is leaning into the suspension of the TCA

    But without doubt the *single most important* is to demonstrate solidarity with Ireland


    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1456717671895113735?s=20
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
    But it doesn't mainly seem to be an East/West thing in Germany?

    https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/

    Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?

    Curious
    Interesting, are catholic areas or protestant areas more likely go have high vaccination rates?
    And before anyone even thinks of digging out the figures and reaching a conclusion, please ensure you understand how the ecological fallacy might trip you up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Germany - Vaccine Uptake vs Green Share.


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Isn’t it a constitutional amendment though?
    The XXII only refers to being elected president. It doesn't prevent, say, being elected vice president and then the president resigns on day 1. See also Putin.
    Actually it does.

    The twelfth amendment explicitly states that the constitutional requirements as provided for the President also apply for Vice President.

    Since the twenty second means someone is barred from becoming President, the twelfth means they're also barred from becoming Vice President.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
    But it doesn't mainly seem to be an East/West thing in Germany?

    https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/

    Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?

    Curious
    Interesting, are catholic areas or protestant areas more likely go have high vaccination rates?
    Catholic Bavaria is a real outlier in terms of being (a) rich, and (b) having relative low vaccination rates.

    Which is odd, because Catholic countries like Italy, Portugal and Spain all have very high levels of vaccination.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,176
    Is there any fecker on the media who has taken a stand against enforced poppy wearing? Haven’t spotted one all night. Had my hopes for Miriam Margolyes but it’s coyly nestling behind a scarf.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Isn’t it a constitutional amendment though?
    The XXII only refers to being elected president. It doesn't prevent, say, being elected vice president and then the president resigns on day 1. See also Putin.
    Actually it does.

    The twelfth amendment explicitly states that the constitutional requirements as provided for the President also apply for Vice President.

    Since the twenty second means someone is barred from becoming President, the twelfth means they're also barred from becoming Vice President.
    My source: https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/amdt22-2/ALDE_00001009/
    It looks murky and untested. A favourable SCOTUS could swing it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    Not sure how imposing a hard border in Ireland "demonstrates solidarity with Ireland"?

    There are very many reasons why the EU is leaning into the suspension of the TCA

    But without doubt the *single most important* is to demonstrate solidarity with Ireland


    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1456717671895113735?s=20

    They're bluffing.

    Frost and Johnson need to call their bluff.
  • rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
    But it doesn't mainly seem to be an East/West thing in Germany?

    https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/

    Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?

    Curious
    Interesting, are catholic areas or protestant areas more likely go have high vaccination rates?
    Catholic Bavaria is a real outlier in terms of being (a) rich, and (b) having relative low vaccination rates.

    Which is odd, because Catholic countries like Italy, Portugal and Spain all have very high levels of vaccination.
    Perhaps the conservative/liberal split helps explain the German vac divide, like it does the American.

    With socio-econonic (race, income, education) as well as geography (urban vs suburban vs rural) key factors along with politics & ideology (including religion).
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    No, it's not the weather, or at least not primarily. This new wave is terrible in Greece

    Best hypothesis: the virus will hit everyone in the end, it has already done its worst in Spain, Italy and the UK, it is now turning to countries hitherto less affected, and with large reservoirs of potential new victims.

    Belgium is odd, however. Already badly hit, yet badly hit again?!
    They are one of these countries where there are massive differences in vaccination rates: while Flanders is at 90% of 12+, Brussels is in the 50s.
    I guess a lot of that is vax hesitancy in BAME communities. Also general continental preference for alternative medicine. It always surprises me how many "homeopathic" pharmacies and whatnot you can find in central and northern Europe (ex UK)
    I'm not sure the "homeopathic" argument matches the geographies that well. In Germany the crunch granola states all have really high levels of vaccination, while the former East Germany is way behind. (And given that East Germany is much older than West - because all the young people moved West - age adjusted vaccination is likely even worse.)
    Dunno. I read today - somewhere - that there are surprising levels of vax refusal in educated German middle class people, and they tend to be Green, Alternative Medicine types. And Germany has a lot of those (Britain has its bouji XR equivalent of course, but not so numerous)

    It would explain the high levels of vax refusals in older Gerrman people, right across Germany
    Bremen - 81.2% of 12+ year olds have had at least one shot of the vaccine
    Saxony - 59.1%

    That's a massive difference. In the former, they are v. close to British levels. In the latter it's nowhere near enough.
    But it doesn't mainly seem to be an East/West thing in Germany?

    https://www.citypopulation.de/en/germany/covid/

    Yes, there are some signs of that, but there are also signs of a north/south divide, even Catholic/Protestant?

    Curious
    That does pretty much match vaccination rates though.

    All the low vax states are Red - which is Baden-W and Bavaria in the South, and the former DDR.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    rcs1000 said:

    Germany - Vaccine Uptake vs Green Share.


    Thanks for that, Has anybody done a similar graff in England (or UK) for Brexit vote Vs Vaccination rate, I understand that both are published by LG area, so should be possible, but I have not seen it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    BigRich said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
    My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 568
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Trump would be 82 by the end of his second term. I'm not sure he'd be going for a third.
    Probably not but Ivanka will.

    That said Trump's support is a largely a personality cult, the GOP don't have anyone else who can replicate his unique appeal or inspire such intense devotion, his family included.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,739
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
  • Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Oh come on.
    The MPs code of conduct says that ministers are not different to other MPs in requiring them to report on the MPs register (para 16)
    The code of conduct says that gifts from ministers are no different to gifts from others (para 9)
    So based on that, he has to declare on the MPs register as well as the ministerial register

    The declarable categories include gifts from UK sources (category 3) and visits outside the UK (category 4), both if they're over £300.
    Johnson, B.'s argument seems to be that as they're from a friend (but see para 9) the value is zero so not declarable.
    You've gone for a variant, saying that it's not possible to calculate a value. But obviously it is, a point you glossed over from my previous post.

    So the reasonable, and indeed lawful approach, is to declare it, and its value. So why won't he?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831

    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    The Trump paranoia which seems to have become orthodox thought is just odd. He was never allowed any serious power last time so I'm struggling to see where the conviction that next time he'll be handed the keys permanently comes from.
    Franklin Roosevelt, followed by his last Vice President still running on FDR's coat strings, won five elections in a row and held office for two decades straight.

    Just saying it can be done. And also saying, that in many ways Trump has copied Roosevelt's strategy AND won allegiance of many of the same voting groups that sustained the New Deal coalition for most of a half-century in the USA.
    There's a two term limit of course now. And I bet that within days of a Trump win in 2024 work will have started to undo that limit.
    Isn’t it a constitutional amendment though?
    The XXII only refers to being elected president. It doesn't prevent, say, being elected vice president and then the president resigns on day 1. See also Putin.
    Actually it does.

    The twelfth amendment explicitly states that the constitutional requirements as provided for the President also apply for Vice President.

    Since the twenty second means someone is barred from becoming President, the twelfth means they're also barred from becoming Vice President.
    Perhaps SCOTUS could end up deciding it? 😬
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
    My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
    That's a reenable point, although the little I noticed from New Jercy, was a similar thing happening, the Dem chap kept on saying Trump, while his opponent kept on ignoring that and talking about other things, but I did not follow the election so maybe not.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
    My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
    I should temper this though, and say that I agree with you about this all being probabilities and not certainties and you could be right. I think that at the 4/6 on offer I'm happy placing bets, but you might be right and I might be wrong. I certainly think the state-by-state contests are slightly better for the Dems than GOP and that does matter, even if I think it is outweighed this time by the national trend.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,412
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    I did a quick excel spresheet, I would not call it a modal, but if cases keep falling at the 8% a week they have over the last week then we will be at just under 20,000 on Christmases day :)

    If Germany keeps rising at 35% a week, (which they will not,) then that gets very ... messy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Germany - Vaccine Uptake vs Green Share.


    Thanks for that, Has anybody done a similar graff in England (or UK) for Brexit vote Vs Vaccination rate, I understand that both are published by LG area, so should be possible, but I have not seen it.
    The correlation is actually stronger than that chart suggests, because the Green vote is higher where populations are younger, and vaccination rates are lower among the young.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,748
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
This discussion has been closed.