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Midterms 2022: The writing’s on the wall – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over

    Well as dream goals go it has the advantage of being clear and achievable.
    That's what I think. It's not much to ask of life

    I used to want to be the greatest lithic dildo knapper in British history. Heck I wanted to make the best Carrara Butt Plug ever seen

    Now, I just want curry and a curvy lass. And to lay my head down to sleep, in the Siamese warmth
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    I can't be doing with this November shit
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
  • Last thread mentioned Snohomish and other Native American names of Washington State.

    Am now going down the list of votes reported by county. Of 39 counties, 16 have Native names:

    Asotin
    Clallam
    Chelan
    Cowlitz
    Kitsap
    Kittitas
    Klickitat
    Okanogan
    Skagit
    Skamania
    Snohomish
    Spokane
    Wahkiakum
    Walla Walla
    Whatcom
    Yakima

    In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    I could cope with November, I might even enjoy its austere beauties, if it wasn't so often followed by December, January, February and early March
  • HolesBayViewHolesBayView Posts: 81
    edited November 2021
    Long time reader, first time caller...
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
  • Leon said:

    I could cope with November, I might even enjoy its austere beauties, if it wasn't so often followed by December, January, February and early March

    Come visit Humptulips, WA on the beautiful but stormy Pacific Coast of the Olympic Peninsula.

    Will make you appreciate the (relative) aridity of southeast England!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Leon said:

    I could cope with November, I might even enjoy its austere beauties, if it wasn't so often followed by December, January, February and early March

    Agreed. November and December are too full of people forgetting that it will get a lot worse.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    These Yorkshire CCC revelations just get worse.
    As a Lancastrian this is what we always suspected goes on over there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited November 2021

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Welcome, Holes!

    [Edit - though perhaps you'd prefer HBV?]

    Are the two goals - vaccinating France and vaccinating Africa - mutually exclusive?

    Indeed, large part of internal French carrot-stick policy re: jabbing, is aimed at residents of African heritage.

    That said, the current low vaccination rate in across the bulk of Africa is a huge problem and must be a tremendous concern for the rest of the world, esp. Europe & North America, on multiple dimensions: medical, economical, enviromental, geo-political and above all moral.
  • SagandSagand Posts: 38
    edited November 2021
    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    I wouldn't that optimistic of the Democrats hopes even looking at it on a state by state basis. Given the assumption that it's a year which Republicans have the headwind (first midterms under Biden) it doesn't seem that likely a state that went Red in 2020 and currently has a Republican senator is going to flip, which narrows Democratic possible pickups to Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

    I'd make Republicans favourite in Georgia and Arizona. Nevada a tossup with exactly the type of demographics that are going hurt Democrats with increased educational polarization and lower turnout of working class PoC. New Hampshire could well have the sitting Governor Vs sitting Senator (the Republican Governor has lead all hypothetical polling so far).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    dixiedean said:

    These Yorkshire CCC revelations just get worse.
    As a Lancastrian this is what we always suspected goes on over there.

    What must Geoff Boycott make of it all?
  • SmartArseSmartArse Posts: 3
    edited November 2021
    dixiedean said:

    These Yorkshire CCC revelations just get worse.
    As a Lancastrian this is what we always suspected goes on over there.

    I thought I’d give them the benefit of the doubt and read the report. Unfortunately this is one of the few occasions where if you read it, you think even worse of the subject than you do from the news coverage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Leon said:

    I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over

    I wonder what the attitude of the locals is to the lack of tourists. My impression when I went there in 2014 was that although they liked the money, they disliked most of them.
  • Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    These Yorkshire CCC revelations just get worse.
    As a Lancastrian this is what we always suspected goes on over there.

    What must Geoff Boycott make of it all?
    “Something. Something. Rhubarb. Old Mum’s pinny” I imagine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over

    I wonder what the attitude of the locals is to the lack of tourists. My impression when I went there in 2014 was that although they liked the money, they disliked most of them.
    20% of Thailand's GDP is tourism. One of the biggest proportions of any significant country on earth

    I imagine they REALLY miss the money
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    I hope SeaShantyIrish will forgive me, his neighbor in King County, for making three corrections: Elections for King County and Seattle are formally nonpartisan so, for example, both Dow Constantine (re-elected as King County Executive) and Bruce Harrell (elected as Seattle mayor) were not listed on the ballot as Democrats.

    Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)

    Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.

  • FPT:
    BigRich said:

    Vaccination news: got a message telling me I could book my booster shot today. Managed to get a slot tomorrow, though they were fairly heavily booked up.

    Also we had nurses in school today finishing off vaccinating Y7-11: all who want one have now (I think) been vaccinated (one dose only, so far at least).

    Just cruise, what proportion of the Y7-11s at your school had the Jab?
    I”d guess 90%+, but it is just a guess.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
  • Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Welcome, Holes!

    [Edit - though perhaps you'd prefer HBV?]
    Either works, HBV is quicker to type 🙂
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    I hope SeaShantyIrish will forgive me, his neighbor in King County, for making three corrections: Elections for King County and Seattle are formally nonpartisan so, for example, both Dow Constantine (re-elected as King County Executive) and Bruce Harrell (elected as Seattle mayor) were not listed on the ballot as Democrats.

    Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)

    Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.

    Welcome.
    And what a superb debut. Political, meteorological and igloo pedantry. In the finest PB tradition. More please!
  • I hope SeaShantyIrish will forgive me, his neighbor in King County, for making three corrections: Elections for King County and Seattle are formally nonpartisan so, for example, both Dow Constantine (re-elected as King County Executive) and Bruce Harrell (elected as Seattle mayor) were not listed on the ballot as Democrats.

    Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)

    Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.

    Welcome, fellow Washingtonian!

    1. Think I said "mostly" nonpartisan, but you are correct, all county & city on this year's ballot were.

    2. We are NOT as wet as Humptulips and the coast (thank God) to the west, or as damp as the Cascade foothills to the east. But still pretty soggy, esp this time of year. Not that it bothers me too much!

    3. Have you conducted this particular experiment personally? Though there are definitely ice caves up that high, and even IIRC a little lower down.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    If I were looking to measure the partisan shift in this year's American elections, I would compare the judicial races in Pennsylvania this year, to previous years. (Hint: There was a Republican sweep this year.)
  • If I were looking to measure the partisan shift in this year's American elections, I would compare the judicial races in Pennsylvania this year, to previous years. (Hint: There was a Republican sweep this year.)

    Thanks for pointing that out, JM. Not that I like it overmuch . . .
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    "Have you conducted this particular experiment personally?"

    No. I've climbed two of the big five, Rainier and St. Helens, but haven't even gotten close to Glacier. Still hoping to hike up in that area some time.
  • rawliberalrawliberal Posts: 21
    edited November 2021

    Last thread mentioned Snohomish and other Native American names of Washington State.

    Am now going down the list of votes reported by county. Of 39 counties, 16 have Native names:

    Asotin
    Clallam
    Chelan
    Cowlitz
    Kitsap
    Kittitas
    Klickitat
    Okanogan
    Skagit
    Skamania
    Snohomish
    Spokane
    Wahkiakum
    Walla Walla
    Whatcom
    Yakima

    In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"

    Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.

    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889

    Edit: I should explain that Microsoft headquarters are in suburban Seattle, in Washington state.
  • "Have you conducted this particular experiment personally?"

    No. I've climbed two of the big five, Rainier and St. Helens, but haven't even gotten close to Glacier. Still hoping to hike up in that area some time.

    Had a hunch you might know something about the Cascade summits from personal experience. Sweet.

    Can NOT claim same, so will defer to your peak punditry & ice pedantry!
  • Last thread mentioned Snohomish and other Native American names of Washington State.

    Am now going down the list of votes reported by county. Of 39 counties, 16 have Native names:

    Asotin
    Clallam
    Chelan
    Cowlitz
    Kitsap
    Kittitas
    Klickitat
    Okanogan
    Skagit
    Skamania
    Snohomish
    Spokane
    Wahkiakum
    Walla Walla
    Whatcom
    Yakima

    In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"

    Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.

    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889

    Edit: I should explain that Microsoft headquarters are in suburban Seattle, in Washington state.
    Have not read or heard anything directly about this yet.

    Will say that, out here, mentioning and honoring our local tribes is about as radical, as doing the same for military veterans and first responders.

    Just bit more woke than being a Seahawks/Mariners/Sonics/Sounders/Storm/Rain/Kracken fan.

    There used to be considerable anti-Indian sentiment in parts of Washington State, and clashes over resources most notably fishing rights. There are still major clashes of interest, but also much more cooperation and common interests. And some of the tribes are major economic and political players thanks to the rise of Indian gaming, which has a large non-Native customer base to say the least.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    dixiedean - Thanks for your kind words.

    And I'll just mention that there is one more local election coming up this year. On December 7th, Kshama Sawant, Seattle's Trotskyite member of the city council, will be facing a recall election. Ballotpedia has a discussion for those who want more details.

    (I haven't the faintest idea whether the recall will succeed.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Interesting.

    "British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/
  • Andy_JS said:

    Interesting.

    "British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/

    Not really. Hawley is batcrap crazy, supported the coup, and voted to overturn the Presidential election results. Nothing he says is interesting.
  • Last thread mentioned Snohomish and other Native American names of Washington State.

    Am now going down the list of votes reported by county. Of 39 counties, 16 have Native names:

    Asotin
    Clallam
    Chelan
    Cowlitz
    Kitsap
    Kittitas
    Klickitat
    Okanogan
    Skagit
    Skamania
    Snohomish
    Spokane
    Wahkiakum
    Walla Walla
    Whatcom
    Yakima

    In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"

    Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.

    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889

    Edit: I should explain that Microsoft headquarters are in suburban Seattle, in Washington state.
    Some reactionaries bitching and a corporation being kind of cringe don't constitute a storm.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    Sagand said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    I wouldn't that optimistic of the Democrats hopes even looking at it on a state by state basis. Given the assumption that it's a year which Republicans have the headwind (first midterms under Biden) it doesn't seem that likely a state that went Red in 2020 and currently has a Republican senator is going to flip, which narrows Democratic possible pickups to Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

    I'd make Republicans favourite in Georgia and Arizona. Nevada a tossup with exactly the type of demographics that are going hurt Democrats with increased educational polarization and lower turnout of working class PoC. New Hampshire could well have the sitting Governor Vs sitting Senator (the Republican Governor has lead all hypothetical polling so far).
    Sununu would be to the left of several Democrat senators.
  • Infrastructure bill passed with some GOP votes. 5 lefty Dems voting against, I guess that means they're not getting their reconciliation bill?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2021
    Quite a few GOP votes:
    The final vote on infrastructure was 228-206.

    GOP YES votes: Katko, Bacon, Van Drew, Young, Upton, Kinzinger, Gonzalez, Fitzpatrick, Reed, Gabarino, Malliotakis, McKinley, and Smith of New Jersey,
    Dem NO votes: AOC, Omar, Bush, Bowman, Pressley, and Rashida Tlaib

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1456826746838429699
  • Con Maj drifting:

    Best prices

    NOM 11/8
    Con Maj 6/4
    Lab Maj 6/1
  • Leon said:

    I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over

    Is that you, @SeanT ?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test
  • Looks like the Scottish opposition parties have picked three more duds:

    Best prices - Next FM - the Unionist candidates

    Anas Sarwar (Lab) 14/1
    Douglas Ross (Con) 18/1
    Alex Cole-Hamilton (LD) 40/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
    My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
    There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:

    (1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.

    (2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.

    I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
    Does that match reality ? I’m sceptical.

    The Democrats real problem in policy terms is that they can’t get their more popular policies through the Senate thanks to Manchin and Sinema.

    Voters like the rhetoric of ‘moderate compromise’, but the reality is the blocked policies themselves actually poll very strongly.

    There other problem is that Republicans have learned to campaign at the local level, and in large parts of the country Democrats haven’t.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting.

    "British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/

    That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.

    The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.

    The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
    It does seem somewhat counterproductive to spin what is an exercise in military cooperation in this manner.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    edited November 2021

    Leaving the EU has really boosted our ability to control immigration, I see.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/05/record-number-of-people-cross-channel-to-uk-in-small-boats

    It clearly seems to have enhanced the UK's popularity with migrants compared to, say, France. You have to wonder just how awfully treated they must be in that country if they are willing to take such risks to reach the UK which you and others continue to claim is so much worse...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting.

    "British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/

    That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.

    The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.

    The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
    Interesting DuraAce.
    The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon):
    "The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    felix said:

    Leaving the EU has really boosted our ability to control immigration, I see.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/05/record-number-of-people-cross-channel-to-uk-in-small-boats

    It clearly seems to have enhanced the UK's popularity with migrants compared to, say, France. You have to wonder just how awfully treated they must be in that country if they are willing to take such risks to reach the UK which you and others continue to claim is so much worse...
    Nowhere near as bad as when Le Pen or Zammour are President. It will become quite some flotilla then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    Exactly.

    We don't know optimum dose or dosing schedule. We're still learning here.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    Ever wonder why there are no shipping containers anywhere? At £100 per day, dumping these containers all over East Anglia is quite some cost.

    Just as well the procuring company is the same as the storing company and so well connected.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1456592978785492993?t=cRGKORRm5CthXcqvbcelSg&s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
    I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible.
    Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    This is emblematic of self described moderate Democratic Senators.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/05/kyrsten-sinema-multi-level-marketing-labor-519661

    There are plenty of Democratic moderates, but Manchin and Sinema really aren’t.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    fpt

    IanB2

    "The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."

    +++++

    The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats

    History does not work the way you think

    You miss the point.

    Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.

    The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,132
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
    I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible.
    Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
    AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.

    Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.

    It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
    My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
    There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:

    (1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.

    (2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.

    I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
    There’s the third option, that they muddle along hoping for the best or that something will turn up, don’t force through unpopular things now and don’t change very much about their approach.

    I’d say that last has the shortest odds.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    Quincel said:

    BigRich said:

    the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.

    Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.

    There are 34 seats up this time.

    The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.

    The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.

    It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.

    In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
    Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but


    My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.

    The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.

    The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
    My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
    There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:

    (1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.

    (2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.

    I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
    There’s the third option, that they muddle along hoping for the best or that something will turn up, don’t force through unpopular things now and don’t change very much about their approach.

    I’d say that last has the shortest odds.
    Well they just passed the infrastructure bill, and it’s looking possible that they might now also pass some for of Biden’s social spending bill (which polls very well indeed).
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/05/house-democrats-infrastructure-vote-wait-megabill-519731

    The midterms could be a disaster for the Democrats, but equally they might be surprisingly good. I think it’s a little too early to call.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
    I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible.
    Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
    AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.

    Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.

    It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
    Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
  • Toms said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting.

    "British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/

    That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.

    The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.

    The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
    Interesting DuraAce.
    The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon):
    "The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
    The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in the advertisement of gambling, plastic toys, foreign holidays, alcohol, junk food, alcohol and cars.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Toms said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting.

    "British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/

    That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.

    The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.

    The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
    Interesting DuraAce.
    The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon):
    "The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
    The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in the advertisement of gambling, plastic toys, foreign holidays, alcohol, junk food, alcohol and cars.
    Flint toys surely.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The American Left is FUCKED, part 683,822


    "Should social justice be part of math class?


    "Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/california-math-curriculum-guidelines.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211105&instance_id=44769&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=106571559&segment_id=73706&te=1&user_id=d68bcc26626dde3f2cdef7375bdd3e94

    They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide

    Can you measure social justice without calculus?
    It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further

    The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".

    Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
    They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
    No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness

    Likewise Brits
    You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.

    I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
    Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
    Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!

    Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...

    ... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
    It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.

    Next time he wins he will win forever
    Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
    To a neutral and horrified outsider like me, it appears to be the fault of both sides. The extremes. The Woke Maniacs and the Ugly Trumpites. Each egging the other on.

    It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
    The history of inter war Germany is one of main-stream Conservatives happily making deals with the fascists even when the consequences were clear and the threat from the socialists minimal.

    They weren't "forced" into doing anything.
    Hmm... So the Spartacists are to be air-brushed out of history?
    And mainstream conservatives will continue to make deals with Fascists until the end of time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    fpt

    IanB2

    "The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."

    +++++

    The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats

    History does not work the way you think

    You miss the point.

    Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.

    The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
    You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    This seems super woke from Microsoft. The presenters describe what they are wearing and their ethnicity etc in their introduction. It’s for the visually impaired, which kind of makes sense, but made me wonder why radio presenters don’t do it. Is it because nobody can see them so there’s no disadvantage in being visually impaired?

    https://twitter.com/l0m3z/status/1456276894664384523?s=21

    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889?s=21
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Isam, it's bloody weird. Compliance to bullshit is a disturbing thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited November 2021

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Isam, it's bloody weird. Compliance to bullshit is a disturbing thing.

    Snowflake. :smile:

    I take it you’re fine with “bugmen”.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    What now passes for news in China.
    https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1456792449423011845
    This is a man of determination and action, a man of profound thoughts and feelings, a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly
  • Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    fpt

    IanB2

    "The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."

    +++++

    The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats

    History does not work the way you think

    You miss the point.

    Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.

    The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
    You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
    They do, but less than some conservatives hope.

    The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372

    Last thread mentioned Snohomish and other Native American names of Washington State.

    Am now going down the list of votes reported by county. Of 39 counties, 16 have Native names:

    Asotin
    Clallam
    Chelan
    Cowlitz
    Kitsap
    Kittitas
    Klickitat
    Okanogan
    Skagit
    Skamania
    Snohomish
    Spokane
    Wahkiakum
    Walla Walla
    Whatcom
    Yakima

    In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"

    Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.

    https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889

    Edit: I should explain that Microsoft headquarters are in suburban Seattle, in Washington state.
    Some reactionaries bitching and a corporation being kind of cringe don't constitute a storm.
    I see there’s a new term called ‘bug men’. What on earth does that mean ?
  • Mr. B, not sure what bugmen are...
  • Mr. B, not sure what bugmen are...

    Rachni?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Oh come on.
    The MPs code of conduct says that ministers are not different to other MPs in requiring them to report on the MPs register (para 16)
    The code of conduct says that gifts from ministers are no different to gifts from others (para 9)
    So based on that, he has to declare on the MPs register as well as the ministerial register

    The declarable categories include gifts from UK sources (category 3) and visits outside the UK (category 4), both if they're over £300.
    Johnson, B.'s argument seems to be that as they're from a friend (but see para 9) the value is zero so not declarable.
    You've gone for a variant, saying that it's not possible to calculate a value. But obviously it is, a point you glossed over from my previous post.

    So the reasonable, and indeed lawful approach, is to declare it, and its value. So why won't he?
    A value would be made up. I saw the mirror said “up to £25k per week”. *

    But actually the specific value really doesn’t matter. It was a lot. A big expense that Boris have had to pay. Goldsmith doesn’t really care since it is only theoretical lost income (the house isn’t rented out anyway) and he’s rich enough not to notice anyway.

    The “credit” that Goldsmith would get from lending a friend and her husband the house is exactly the same regardless of the nominal figure.

    What matters is the declaration of the gift. And that has been declared.


    * for example a friend and client once invited my to join him for lunch at ascot and flew me there from battersea to avoid traffic. I disclosed that, of course, but what is the value of a seat on a chopper that would be flying anyway?
  • Mr. Teacher, Mass Effect reference? Been a long time since I played it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2021

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    fpt

    IanB2

    "The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."

    +++++

    The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats

    History does not work the way you think

    You miss the point.

    Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.

    The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
    You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
    They do, but less than some conservatives hope.

    The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
    Indeed. What is interesting is that political views clearly change, whereas social attitudes, taste in music, etc, endure.

    A possible explanation is that the social attitudes, music and hairstyles of youth are ‘radical’ challenges to the preceding generation, directing toward radical poltiics also, whereas the same bundle of attitudes and behaviour becomes ‘conservative’ as one sees the next generation adopting a new set of attitudes and the natural instinct is to try and keep things as they were.
  • Mr. Teacher, Mass Effect reference? Been a long time since I played it.

    Yes. The Legendary Edition came out this year, so I indulged myself. Finally managed to finish ME3 on insanity last week, which involved more swearing than I was expecting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
    I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible.
    Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
    AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.

    Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.

    It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
    Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
    Booked for Mrs C and myself for a weeks time. Originally did so three or so weeks ago but had to postpone it because we actually contracted the wretched virus. Not seriously ill, but it's the need for isolation which messes things up.

    Now looking forward to a virus free Christmas when we can see all our grandchildren!
    For me they are offering dates in early December. A welcome step up in efficiency from the ‘go away’ message of a week or so back.
  • IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Long time reader, first time caller...

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British


    35.806

    over

    34,029

    That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.

    e.g.

    Danny Altmann
    @Daltmann10
    ·
    Nov 2
    Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
    So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
    Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.

    The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
    That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
    Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.

    I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
    Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
    France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
    Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
    Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
    Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
    (1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.

    (2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.

    (3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.

    It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.

    Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
    (1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.

    The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
    You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
    I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
    I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible.
    Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
    AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.

    Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.

    It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
    Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
    Booked for Mrs C and myself for a weeks time. Originally did so three or so weeks ago but had to postpone it because we actually contracted the wretched virus. Not seriously ill, but it's the need for isolation which messes things up.

    Now looking forward to a virus free Christmas when we can see all our grandchildren!
    For me they are offering dates in early December. A welcome step up in efficiency from the ‘go away’ message of a week or so back.
    I was told I could book yesterday and have a slot booked for this afternoon. How long ago was your second jab? Mine was just over six months ago.
  • Mr. Teacher, second game was my favourite of those. You've probably seen this already, but, if not, here's a short video you should enjoy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_rY6gn7GNM
  • Mr. Teacher, second game was my favourite of those. You've probably seen this already, but, if not, here's a short video you should enjoy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_rY6gn7GNM

    The third one has grown on me; it has the weakest ending, but the rest of the game more than makes up for it. The Legendary edition contains all the DLC which helps.
  • Mr. Teacher, yeah, I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC. It includes important stuff which should be in the base game (for the Dragon Age series, at least). While Bethesda have screwed up a lot since, their approach for the expansions of Skyrim was spot on. Lots of content, complete experiences, but not needed at all for the main story of the base game.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    What now passes for news in China.
    https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1456792449423011845
    This is a man of determination and action, a man of profound thoughts and feelings, a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly

    Was expecting a piece on Boris…
  • Mr. Teacher, yeah, I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC. It includes important stuff which should be in the base game (for the Dragon Age series, at least). While Bethesda have screwed up a lot since, their approach for the expansions of Skyrim was spot on. Lots of content, complete experiences, but not needed at all for the main story of the base game.

    Yes. That is one of the good things about the new edition. A lot of the DLC, like The Lair of the Shadowbroker or Arrival, are pretty important bits of plot.
  • Superb news on Biden's infrastructure Bill.

    Any brick in the wall that can help stop Trump is good.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,402
    Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.

    If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...
  • Mr. Tubbs, sorry to hear that, but glad the worst may be behind you.

    My back's been irksome the last few days but I think it's starting to mend. May well add short walks and a spot of yoga to my daily routine to try and prevent it recurring (not the first time it's happened this year).
  • IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    fpt

    IanB2

    "The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."

    +++++

    The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats

    History does not work the way you think

    You miss the point.

    Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.

    The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
    You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
    They do, but less than some conservatives hope.

    The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
    Indeed. What is interesting is that political views clearly change, whereas social attitudes, taste in music, etc, endure.

    A possible explanation is that the social attitudes, music and hairstyles of youth are ‘radical’ challenges to the preceding generation, directing toward radical poltiics also, whereas the same bundle of attitudes and behaviour becomes ‘conservative’ as one sees the next generation adopting a new set of attitudes and the natural instinct is to try and keep things as they were.
    That sounds plausible, and numerically it does feel as if we're on the cusp of a transition.

    Remember the row about taking the knee at Euro not-2020? Before the tournament, there was lots of vocal opposition to that, and I bet that a few years earlier, the public would not have backed the players. Now, there's a small but clear majority supporting what the players did, with a massive lead amongst the young.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2021

    Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.

    If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...

    My first AZ was like that. The worst I have felt in my entire life. I made the mistake of trying to walk to the kitchen to get some tablets and passed out. That was as bad as it got though, and although I didn’t feel right for a week after, it was just headache, dehydration and a touch of anxiety, borne of the passing out I reckon.

    Stay in bed and watch tv or listen to some nice music is my advice!
  • Mr. Romford, aye, and at one stage iconoclasts held sway in the Eastern Roman Empire.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    isam said:

    Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.

    If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...

    My first AZ was like that. The worst I have felt in my entire life. I made the mistake of trying to walk to the kitchen to get some tablets and passed out. That was as bad as it got though, and although I didn’t feel right for a week after, it was just headache, dehydration and a touch of anxiety, borne of the passing out I reckon.

    Stay in bed and watch tv or listen to some nice music is my advice!
    Yeah AZN1 I was shaking so hard in the first night it felt like convulsions, lying in sweat drenched sheets. Two days of flu then with a finger snap felt fine on 48hrs. Hoping the PFE treats me more kindly.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Superb news on Biden's infrastructure Bill.

    Any brick in the wall that can help stop Trump is good.

    It kills the BBB bill which is the bill that contains the majority of his campaign promises.

    The Dems are such idiots. If they are going to blow up part of his agenda to get a little temporary positive headlines the time to do it was a week before the Governor election, not a week after.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Is the price of petrol going to be a political issue soon? I picked a hell of a week to trade my F80 M3 for an F02 Alpina B7 Allrad (21 mpg).
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @SussexJames FPT

    It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register

    It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register

    That’s actually a reasonable approach

    Oh come on.
    The MPs code of conduct says that ministers are not different to other MPs in requiring them to report on the MPs register (para 16)
    The code of conduct says that gifts from ministers are no different to gifts from others (para 9)
    So based on that, he has to declare on the MPs register as well as the ministerial register

    The declarable categories include gifts from UK sources (category 3) and visits outside the UK (category 4), both if they're over £300.
    Johnson, B.'s argument seems to be that as they're from a friend (but see para 9) the value is zero so not declarable.
    You've gone for a variant, saying that it's not possible to calculate a value. But obviously it is, a point you glossed over from my previous post.

    So the reasonable, and indeed lawful approach, is to declare it, and its value. So why won't he?
    A value would be made up. I saw the mirror said “up to £25k per week”. *

    But actually the specific value really doesn’t matter. It was a lot. A big expense that Boris have had to pay. Goldsmith doesn’t really care since it is only theoretical lost income (the house isn’t rented out anyway) and he’s rich enough not to notice anyway.

    The “credit” that Goldsmith would get from lending a friend and her husband the house is exactly the same regardless of the nominal figure.

    What matters is the declaration of the gift. And that has been declared.


    * for example a friend and client once invited my to join him for lunch at ascot and flew me there from battersea to avoid traffic. I disclosed that, of course, but what is the value of a seat on a chopper that would be flying anyway?
    Again, you being disingenuous and hoping people won't notice. It has been declared in one register, but needs to be declared in both. He declared his holiday in Mustique in both registers only last year? What has changed? Nothing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    It has been declared in one register, but needs to be declared in both. He declared his holiday in Mustique in both registers only last year? What has changed? Nothing.

    he thought he could get away with it this time
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Sir John Major - As a conservative my whole life, I’m concerned about how govt is behaving - much of what they’re doing is v unconservative in behaviour. There’s a general whiff of ‘we are the masters now’ about their behaviour & I think it’s cutting through to public & it has to stop
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1456901922808606721
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
  • Good morning

    The poll in today's mail on which leader is sleazy Boris beats Starmer 53%/20%

    However, paradoxically on who is doing the better job overall he wins 41% too 27%

    The mail put this down to it is already being accepted about Boris and sleaze

    What a strange world we live in, but maybe labour should wonder why Starmer is not cutting through
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,402
    edited November 2021
    isam said:

    Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.

    If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...

    My first AZ was like that. The worst I have felt in my entire life. I made the mistake of trying to walk to the kitchen to get some tablets and passed out. That was as bad as it got though, and although I didn’t feel right for a week after, it was just headache, dehydration and a touch of anxiety, borne of the passing out I reckon.

    Stay in bed and watch tv or listen to some nice music is my advice!
    Sadly I need four new tyres and two brake pads this morning... Now wishing I hadn’t booked it for the day after the jab!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Sir John Major:
    "This government has done a number of things that have concerned me deeply: they have broken the law, the illegal prorogation of parliament. They have broken treaties, I have in mind the Northern Ireland Protocol. They have broken their word on many occasions."

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1456899066604949505
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Scott_xP said:

    Sir John Major:
    "This government has done a number of things that have concerned me deeply: they have broken the law, the illegal prorogation of parliament. They have broken treaties, I have in mind the Northern Ireland Protocol. They have broken their word on many occasions."

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1456899066604949505

    Bore off John, a total failure of a PM should be embarrassed giving public criticism of another.
This discussion has been closed.