the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
Funnily enough I disagree on both the desirable and likely outcomes. Some at least one of us will be pleasantly surprised!
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
Could be worse - could try for two unsuccessfully.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
I should temper this though, and say that I agree with you about this all being probabilities and not certainties and you could be right. I think that at the 4/6 on offer I'm happy placing bets, but you might be right and I might be wrong. I certainly think the state-by-state contests are slightly better for the Dems than GOP and that does matter, even if I think it is outweighed this time by the national trend.
I don't think we are really disagreeing here,
However things work in perverse ways, a few months ago when these GOP governor candidates where selected by there party, it looks like the party was thinking, all that matters is to find the best candidate to beet the Deams, and they chose well. from not on, perhaps the GOP, will think 'we are going to win, so which person do I really want in power' and then they will select Trump whanbys and Trump like people, which apart from putting me off will also put off swing voters. if the Dems do the opposite, go from near complacency to concisely choosing moderate looking people, then 2022 may be very different.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
Actually in terms of candidate profiles the Democratic versus Republican gubernatorial match-ups in New Jersey and Virginia showed some marked similarities.
As for issues, in New Jersey the one that nearly did Gov. Murphy in, was fact that he'd actually been quoted as telling folks concerned about rising taxes that "maybe New Jersey isn't the state for you". Which alienated plenty of people in state with VERY high property taxes - including lots who are NOT anti-tax zealots but instead moderate, mostly suburban swing voters - including many moderate Democrats.
And as noted, McAuliffe & Murphy had little to say except Trump, Trump, Trump.
Looking forward to 2022, both parties will take lessons from 2021. For GOP candidates & consultants, hard to believe they will NOT copy what worked - or almost worked - in the Old Dominion and the Garden State.
That's nationalizing the mid-terms, in reverse!
BTW, re: current Woke v Woke culture wars, this is nothing new under the sun in American politics.
Last thread there was mention of French Republican calendar. Well, in the Year IX (late 1800 to me & you) incumbent John Adams and the Federalist Party were attacking Thomas Jefferson and the Republicans (of that day) as godless atheists in league with French terrorists bent on destroying western civilization with their proto-wokism.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Quite right. Look at Trump. Once he stopped serving Russia he was screwed.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Welcome, Holes!
[Edit - though perhaps you'd prefer HBV?]
Are the two goals - vaccinating France and vaccinating Africa - mutually exclusive?
Indeed, large part of internal French carrot-stick policy re: jabbing, is aimed at residents of African heritage.
That said, the current low vaccination rate in across the bulk of Africa is a huge problem and must be a tremendous concern for the rest of the world, esp. Europe & North America, on multiple dimensions: medical, economical, enviromental, geo-political and above all moral.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
I wouldn't that optimistic of the Democrats hopes even looking at it on a state by state basis. Given the assumption that it's a year which Republicans have the headwind (first midterms under Biden) it doesn't seem that likely a state that went Red in 2020 and currently has a Republican senator is going to flip, which narrows Democratic possible pickups to Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
I'd make Republicans favourite in Georgia and Arizona. Nevada a tossup with exactly the type of demographics that are going hurt Democrats with increased educational polarization and lower turnout of working class PoC. New Hampshire could well have the sitting Governor Vs sitting Senator (the Republican Governor has lead all hypothetical polling so far).
These Yorkshire CCC revelations just get worse. As a Lancastrian this is what we always suspected goes on over there.
I thought I’d give them the benefit of the doubt and read the report. Unfortunately this is one of the few occasions where if you read it, you think even worse of the subject than you do from the news coverage.
I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over
I wonder what the attitude of the locals is to the lack of tourists. My impression when I went there in 2014 was that although they liked the money, they disliked most of them.
I just want to go to Thailand now. And eat chicken penang. And stare at the tropic moon between the skyscrapers. And fuck the locals till I fall over
I wonder what the attitude of the locals is to the lack of tourists. My impression when I went there in 2014 was that although they liked the money, they disliked most of them.
20% of Thailand's GDP is tourism. One of the biggest proportions of any significant country on earth
I hope SeaShantyIrish will forgive me, his neighbor in King County, for making three corrections: Elections for King County and Seattle are formally nonpartisan so, for example, both Dow Constantine (re-elected as King County Executive) and Bruce Harrell (elected as Seattle mayor) were not listed on the ballot as Democrats.
Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)
Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.
Vaccination news: got a message telling me I could book my booster shot today. Managed to get a slot tomorrow, though they were fairly heavily booked up.
Also we had nurses in school today finishing off vaccinating Y7-11: all who want one have now (I think) been vaccinated (one dose only, so far at least).
Just cruise, what proportion of the Y7-11s at your school had the Jab?
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
I hope SeaShantyIrish will forgive me, his neighbor in King County, for making three corrections: Elections for King County and Seattle are formally nonpartisan so, for example, both Dow Constantine (re-elected as King County Executive) and Bruce Harrell (elected as Seattle mayor) were not listed on the ballot as Democrats.
Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)
Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.
Welcome. And what a superb debut. Political, meteorological and igloo pedantry. In the finest PB tradition. More please!
I hope SeaShantyIrish will forgive me, his neighbor in King County, for making three corrections: Elections for King County and Seattle are formally nonpartisan so, for example, both Dow Constantine (re-elected as King County Executive) and Bruce Harrell (elected as Seattle mayor) were not listed on the ballot as Democrats.
Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)
Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.
Welcome, fellow Washingtonian!
1. Think I said "mostly" nonpartisan, but you are correct, all county & city on this year's ballot were.
2. We are NOT as wet as Humptulips and the coast (thank God) to the west, or as damp as the Cascade foothills to the east. But still pretty soggy, esp this time of year. Not that it bothers me too much!
3. Have you conducted this particular experiment personally? Though there are definitely ice caves up that high, and even IIRC a little lower down.
If I were looking to measure the partisan shift in this year's American elections, I would compare the judicial races in Pennsylvania this year, to previous years. (Hint: There was a Republican sweep this year.)
If I were looking to measure the partisan shift in this year's American elections, I would compare the judicial races in Pennsylvania this year, to previous years. (Hint: There was a Republican sweep this year.)
Thanks for pointing that out, JM. Not that I like it overmuch . . .
"Have you conducted this particular experiment personally?"
No. I've climbed two of the big five, Rainier and St. Helens, but haven't even gotten close to Glacier. Still hoping to hike up in that area some time.
In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.
"Have you conducted this particular experiment personally?"
No. I've climbed two of the big five, Rainier and St. Helens, but haven't even gotten close to Glacier. Still hoping to hike up in that area some time.
Had a hunch you might know something about the Cascade summits from personal experience. Sweet.
Can NOT claim same, so will defer to your peak punditry & ice pedantry!
In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.
Edit: I should explain that Microsoft headquarters are in suburban Seattle, in Washington state.
Have not read or heard anything directly about this yet.
Will say that, out here, mentioning and honoring our local tribes is about as radical, as doing the same for military veterans and first responders.
Just bit more woke than being a Seahawks/Mariners/Sonics/Sounders/Storm/Rain/Kracken fan.
There used to be considerable anti-Indian sentiment in parts of Washington State, and clashes over resources most notably fishing rights. There are still major clashes of interest, but also much more cooperation and common interests. And some of the tribes are major economic and political players thanks to the rise of Indian gaming, which has a large non-Native customer base to say the least.
And I'll just mention that there is one more local election coming up this year. On December 7th, Kshama Sawant, Seattle's Trotskyite member of the city council, will be facing a recall election. Ballotpedia has a discussion for those who want more details.
(I haven't the faintest idea whether the recall will succeed.)
In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
I wouldn't that optimistic of the Democrats hopes even looking at it on a state by state basis. Given the assumption that it's a year which Republicans have the headwind (first midterms under Biden) it doesn't seem that likely a state that went Red in 2020 and currently has a Republican senator is going to flip, which narrows Democratic possible pickups to Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
I'd make Republicans favourite in Georgia and Arizona. Nevada a tossup with exactly the type of demographics that are going hurt Democrats with increased educational polarization and lower turnout of working class PoC. New Hampshire could well have the sitting Governor Vs sitting Senator (the Republican Governor has lead all hypothetical polling so far).
Sununu would be to the left of several Democrat senators.
GOP YES votes: Katko, Bacon, Van Drew, Young, Upton, Kinzinger, Gonzalez, Fitzpatrick, Reed, Gabarino, Malliotakis, McKinley, and Smith of New Jersey, Dem NO votes: AOC, Omar, Bush, Bowman, Pressley, and Rashida Tlaib
That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.
The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.
The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
Does that match reality ? I’m sceptical.
The Democrats real problem in policy terms is that they can’t get their more popular policies through the Senate thanks to Manchin and Sinema.
Voters like the rhetoric of ‘moderate compromise’, but the reality is the blocked policies themselves actually poll very strongly.
There other problem is that Republicans have learned to campaign at the local level, and in large parts of the country Democrats haven’t.
That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.
The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.
The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
It does seem somewhat counterproductive to spin what is an exercise in military cooperation in this manner.
It clearly seems to have enhanced the UK's popularity with migrants compared to, say, France. You have to wonder just how awfully treated they must be in that country if they are willing to take such risks to reach the UK which you and others continue to claim is so much worse...
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.
The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.
The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
Interesting DuraAce. The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon): "The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
It clearly seems to have enhanced the UK's popularity with migrants compared to, say, France. You have to wonder just how awfully treated they must be in that country if they are willing to take such risks to reach the UK which you and others continue to claim is so much worse...
Nowhere near as bad as when Le Pen or Zammour are President. It will become quite some flotilla then.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
Exactly.
We don't know optimum dose or dosing schedule. We're still learning here.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible. Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
"The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."
+++++
The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats
History does not work the way you think
You miss the point.
Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.
The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible. Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.
Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.
It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
There’s the third option, that they muddle along hoping for the best or that something will turn up, don’t force through unpopular things now and don’t change very much about their approach.
the predictions made above, may well tern out accurate for the US house of representatives, but for the Senet, this may be different.
Every year 1/3 of the senit seats are up for election, and as each state has 2 senators, that means that 2/3 of the states vote, which states do and don't vote matters.
There are 34 seats up this time.
The democrats are defending 14 seats, all of which are in state Biden won, George might be hard to defend and Arizona will be close, but the other 12 are reasonably safe or very safe, all 14 senators are planning to run ageing so will benefit form incumbency.
The republicans are defending 20, in 5 of those the incumbent is stepping down Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missory, N Carolina and Louisiana, of theses Pennsylvania was won by Biden and Ohio close, there are also defending Wisconsin, which Biden won, and Florida and Iowa, are also normally consider swing states.
It may still all go the republican way, but of the 10 states I've mention above, the democrats just need to win in 2.
In theory I agree, but I just don't think the state-by-state situation is going to matter enough in the national popularity we're going to see.
Maybe, predictions are very hard and all that, but
My take away form Virginia, was one candidate went Trump Trump Trump, and the other went education education education, and the guy who talked about education won.
The way to win IMHO, is to talk about Trump or Biden in you fundraising emails to supporters, but talk about local real issues when talking to voters, especially swing voters.
The Senet may be slightly different as it votes on national politics,
My issue with that analysis is the Democrats also almost lost New Jersey. Totally different candidates, different campaign, same slump for the Dems. I don't think the problem in Virginia was abour Virginia.
There are two ways the Dems can react to this loss:
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
There’s the third option, that they muddle along hoping for the best or that something will turn up, don’t force through unpopular things now and don’t change very much about their approach.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible. Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.
Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.
It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.
The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.
The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
Interesting DuraAce. The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon): "The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in the advertisement of gambling, plastic toys, foreign holidays, alcohol, junk food, alcohol and cars.
That article is balls. The exercise wasn't RM vs USMC. The British 40 Commando were under the command of 7th Marine Regiment USMC along with 2nd Battalion 5th Marines, 3rd Battalion 11th Marines (Artillery), ANGLICO, US Marine Special Operations and the UAE Presidential Guard. You can see from some of the pictures they are actually using 7th Marine vehicles. Presumably the RM Land Rovers performed to expectations.
The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.
The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
Interesting DuraAce. The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon): "The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in the advertisement of gambling, plastic toys, foreign holidays, alcohol, junk food, alcohol and cars.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible. Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.
Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.
It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
Booked for Mrs C and myself for a weeks time. Originally did so three or so weeks ago but had to postpone it because we actually contracted the wretched virus. Not seriously ill, but it's the need for isolation which messes things up.
Now looking forward to a virus free Christmas when we can see all our grandchildren!
"Proposed changes to California’s math guidelines would de-emphasize calculus, reject the idea of naturally gifted children and build a connection to social justice. Critics say the framework would inject “woke politics” into the subject...."
They are determined to double down. The Democrats will be swept aside in 2022, 2024, and onwards. This is political suicide
Can you measure social justice without calculus?
It's quite incredible. They just lost Virginia because of this bullshit. Education was THE issue. But far from sobering up, the Wokesters are going further
The Republicans will use this again and again. "The Democrats want to destroy education because they are Woke morons".
Who would vote for this crap? The Republicans are being gifted a decade of elections. Scarily, this might even be enough to see Trump back in the White House
They'll still win for all practical purposes. This country keeps voting for the right wing option and brexit, but we're going to get all this shit forced down our throats regardless.
No they won't. In the end Americans will vote for Trump, or his equivalent, to get rid of this madness
Likewise Brits
You're like Cnut trying to stop the tide... and the tide of history is against you.
I appreciate it's all gone too far for your personal preference but it's not going away. Things that seemed radical 40 years ago (e.g. gay marriage) are now largely (rightly) accepted as non-issues.
Jesus Christ, this is so far beyond gay marriage. You don't even begin to understand what is happening. It is well meaning low watt lefties like you that are, in part, allowing this to happen. You dimly perceive it as "good" if a bit "bonkers", and thus it marches on. But not forever. Eventually the voters rebel
Mate I am not allowing it to happen - I am actively pushing for it to happen!
Your 'this is so far beyond gay marriage' comment raises an interesting question: Where in your opinion would be an approproate point to stop with lefty diversity nonsense? Where we are now? Or maybe where we were 5 or 10 years ago?...
... because from my perspective, with a special personal interest in disability rights, I think we still have a long, long way to go.
It needs to stop when you are in danger of forcing your opponents, in their desperation at your lunacy, to elect Donald Trump as president. Again.
Next time he wins he will win forever
Yes, but if he wins it is the fault of the idiots who vote for him, no one else. That's how it works.
To a neutral and horrified outsider like me, it appears to be the fault of both sides. The extremes. The Woke Maniacs and the Ugly Trumpites. Each egging the other on.
It is horribly reminiscent of Germany in the 20s and 30s. Most Germans didn't want the Communists OR the Nazis to govern, but in the end they were all polarised by the bitter enmity, often violent and visible, and eventually they chose a team.
The history of inter war Germany is one of main-stream Conservatives happily making deals with the fascists even when the consequences were clear and the threat from the socialists minimal.
They weren't "forced" into doing anything.
Hmm... So the Spartacists are to be air-brushed out of history?
And mainstream conservatives will continue to make deals with Fascists until the end of time.
"The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."
+++++
The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats
History does not work the way you think
You miss the point.
Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.
The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
This seems super woke from Microsoft. The presenters describe what they are wearing and their ethnicity etc in their introduction. It’s for the visually impaired, which kind of makes sense, but made me wonder why radio presenters don’t do it. Is it because nobody can see them so there’s no disadvantage in being visually impaired?
What now passes for news in China. https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1456792449423011845 This is a man of determination and action, a man of profound thoughts and feelings, a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly
"The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."
+++++
The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats
History does not work the way you think
You miss the point.
Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.
The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
They do, but less than some conservatives hope.
The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
Not often one comes to PB from Techmeme and finds a common thread. But today it seems there's a bit of a Twitter storm brewing about how speakers at Microsoft's big virtual event this week started out by acknowledging the various tribes whose land its corporate headquarters now stands on.
It was a stay in the private home if a friend therefore not disclosable on the MP register
It was a significant gift from one minister to another and therefore disclosed on the ministerial register
That’s actually a reasonable approach
Oh come on. The MPs code of conduct says that ministers are not different to other MPs in requiring them to report on the MPs register (para 16) The code of conduct says that gifts from ministers are no different to gifts from others (para 9) So based on that, he has to declare on the MPs register as well as the ministerial register
The declarable categories include gifts from UK sources (category 3) and visits outside the UK (category 4), both if they're over £300. Johnson, B.'s argument seems to be that as they're from a friend (but see para 9) the value is zero so not declarable. You've gone for a variant, saying that it's not possible to calculate a value. But obviously it is, a point you glossed over from my previous post.
So the reasonable, and indeed lawful approach, is to declare it, and its value. So why won't he?
A value would be made up. I saw the mirror said “up to £25k per week”. *
But actually the specific value really doesn’t matter. It was a lot. A big expense that Boris have had to pay. Goldsmith doesn’t really care since it is only theoretical lost income (the house isn’t rented out anyway) and he’s rich enough not to notice anyway.
The “credit” that Goldsmith would get from lending a friend and her husband the house is exactly the same regardless of the nominal figure.
What matters is the declaration of the gift. And that has been declared.
* for example a friend and client once invited my to join him for lunch at ascot and flew me there from battersea to avoid traffic. I disclosed that, of course, but what is the value of a seat on a chopper that would be flying anyway?
"The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."
+++++
The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats
History does not work the way you think
You miss the point.
Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.
The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
They do, but less than some conservatives hope.
The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
Indeed. What is interesting is that political views clearly change, whereas social attitudes, taste in music, etc, endure.
A possible explanation is that the social attitudes, music and hairstyles of youth are ‘radical’ challenges to the preceding generation, directing toward radical poltiics also, whereas the same bundle of attitudes and behaviour becomes ‘conservative’ as one sees the next generation adopting a new set of attitudes and the natural instinct is to try and keep things as they were.
Mr. Teacher, Mass Effect reference? Been a long time since I played it.
Yes. The Legendary Edition came out this year, so I indulged myself. Finally managed to finish ME3 on insanity last week, which involved more swearing than I was expecting.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible. Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.
Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.
It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
Booked for Mrs C and myself for a weeks time. Originally did so three or so weeks ago but had to postpone it because we actually contracted the wretched virus. Not seriously ill, but it's the need for isolation which messes things up.
Now looking forward to a virus free Christmas when we can see all our grandchildren!
For me they are offering dates in early December. A welcome step up in efficiency from the ‘go away’ message of a week or so back.
For the first time in a long time (ever?) Worldometer reports more German new cases than British
35.806
over
34,029
That can't be right. iSAGE have assured us that we are doing appallingly compared to europe.
e.g.
Danny Altmann @Daltmann10 · Nov 2 Hard to emphasise sufficiently the importance and impact of these points. I’m often asked why UK is fairing abysmally compared to mainland Europe.
So the hypothesis is, it’s down the the weather (climate) and most of the precautions are now of negligible real value.
Which is why it was the correct strategy to run hot in summer and autumn to build up natural immunity in the "won't vaccinate" cohort. No one was ever really able to explain what displacement of cases would get us in June and July when we were going for full unlockdown and in the end no answer was ever given, just screeching about being worse than Europe and other unnecessary politicisation of the issue. The people who wanted neverending NPIs got their wish in the EU and those countries have got no way out and chances are loads of them will have to go into pretty tough lockdown measures similar to last year because there isn't enough natural immunity to supplement diluted/waning vaccine immunity.
The people of Europe have been badly let down by their governments and been fed a diet of fear to keep them in line and critical of countries who have made the lead to endemic COVID like the UK has done. I have friends in Italy who don't want to come to the UK because they think it's a COVID wasteland where people are dying in the streets. Their officials feed them this constant bullshit about how reaching herd immunity is impossible so will have to live with permanent NPIs. The major worry in Italy is that the UK gets past the herd immunity threshold in the next two to three weeks and we're down to a trivial number of cases over Xmas and suddenly the Italian public wake up to the fact that they've been sold on a completely false pretence.
That's not just a European story. Fox News did a piece earlier this week about how Britain is struggling with a third wave, and how American vaccines (Moderna) were better than the British ones.
Weird, I had an American vaccine and my wife did as well! What's very odd is that everyone wants to shit on the UK. I think there is a lot of fear that we've chosen the right path and now it's too late for them to do the same thing so need to try and justify to themselves that we've fucked up. For those of us living through the "disaster" it's barely been noticeable. Now that government data shows cases falling we're also at minimal risk of having plan b shoved on us too.
I was looking at our own data model of cases today and it was saying an average of 30k per week in December for England.
Macron is doing a covid address to the nation on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what he announces.
France is now allowing everyone who's six months since their second vaccine jab to get the booster. I wouldn't be surprised if he introduces measures to encourage people to get it.
Does he not realise the damage this is doing to poorer countries, or does he not care? In Africa 9% - nine percent - have had a dose.
Macron was elected to serve the people of France. As a general rule, when you forget to whom you answer, you rapidly end up out of a job.
Sure. But is there any significant benefit to giving people - at least in lower risk groups - a third dose? Is there even significant demand for a third dose? There was clamour for the original two-dose regimen, so it's understandable that got rolled out to all adults and even to some children - but it strikes me that whilst that was the people saying "we want a vaccine" this is the politicians saying "you should have a booster".
(1) There are plenty of vaccination regimes people take today with are three or more doses, such as HPV or Hepititis B.
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
(1) is true - but these were supposed to be two doses and done. To take a personal example, I managed to convince my wife (who's in a vulnerable group) to get the two doses - but to get the booster is an uphill task. She doesn't want to have to go to get another dose every six months for the rest of her life, and that's quite understandable.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
You should remember the vaccines are being distributed rapidly with a much smaller gap than normal to cover the whole trial and testing process. Therefore it's all really part of a giant experiment and we simply cannot yet know the optimum amount of dose and number of doses for sure. That could take several years to be determined. I'm not sure anyone seriously thought or claimed that 2 doses would give protection in perpetuity.
I note that our government has dropped the Astra Zenica now. All boosters are Pfizer.
I note they’ve just cut the 6month requirement for boosters for the over 50s, which is very sensible. Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
AstraZeneca, while performing excellently against Original Covid, Saffer Covid, and Cockney Covid, has not been as effective as we would like against Delta - almost certainly as a consequence of the fact that people end up with massively bigger doses of it.
Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.
It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
Just booked mine for 181 days after the last. Is there any good data on how many days it takes the booster to do its thing?
Booked for Mrs C and myself for a weeks time. Originally did so three or so weeks ago but had to postpone it because we actually contracted the wretched virus. Not seriously ill, but it's the need for isolation which messes things up.
Now looking forward to a virus free Christmas when we can see all our grandchildren!
For me they are offering dates in early December. A welcome step up in efficiency from the ‘go away’ message of a week or so back.
I was told I could book yesterday and have a slot booked for this afternoon. How long ago was your second jab? Mine was just over six months ago.
The third one has grown on me; it has the weakest ending, but the rest of the game more than makes up for it. The Legendary edition contains all the DLC which helps.
Mr. Teacher, yeah, I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC. It includes important stuff which should be in the base game (for the Dragon Age series, at least). While Bethesda have screwed up a lot since, their approach for the expansions of Skyrim was spot on. Lots of content, complete experiences, but not needed at all for the main story of the base game.
What now passes for news in China. https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1456792449423011845 This is a man of determination and action, a man of profound thoughts and feelings, a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly
Mr. Teacher, yeah, I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC. It includes important stuff which should be in the base game (for the Dragon Age series, at least). While Bethesda have screwed up a lot since, their approach for the expansions of Skyrim was spot on. Lots of content, complete experiences, but not needed at all for the main story of the base game.
Yes. That is one of the good things about the new edition. A lot of the DLC, like The Lair of the Shadowbroker or Arrival, are pretty important bits of plot.
Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.
Mr. Tubbs, sorry to hear that, but glad the worst may be behind you.
My back's been irksome the last few days but I think it's starting to mend. May well add short walks and a spot of yoga to my daily routine to try and prevent it recurring (not the first time it's happened this year).
"The older generation ranting in the wind against the mores of the next, yet time will ensure that however strong they shout, demographics mean they are doomed and so society moves onwards."
+++++
The Red Guards and the Khmer Rouge were the "new generation" once. And the Nazis were, in their time, the virile youngsters, laughing at the decadent, middle aged social democrats
History does not work the way you think
You miss the point.
Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.
The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
You assume younger people views won’t change as they get older.
They do, but less than some conservatives hope.
The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
Indeed. What is interesting is that political views clearly change, whereas social attitudes, taste in music, etc, endure.
A possible explanation is that the social attitudes, music and hairstyles of youth are ‘radical’ challenges to the preceding generation, directing toward radical poltiics also, whereas the same bundle of attitudes and behaviour becomes ‘conservative’ as one sees the next generation adopting a new set of attitudes and the natural instinct is to try and keep things as they were.
That sounds plausible, and numerically it does feel as if we're on the cusp of a transition.
Remember the row about taking the knee at Euro not-2020? Before the tournament, there was lots of vocal opposition to that, and I bet that a few years earlier, the public would not have backed the players. Now, there's a small but clear majority supporting what the players did, with a massive lead amongst the young.
Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.
If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...
My first AZ was like that. The worst I have felt in my entire life. I made the mistake of trying to walk to the kitchen to get some tablets and passed out. That was as bad as it got though, and although I didn’t feel right for a week after, it was just headache, dehydration and a touch of anxiety, borne of the passing out I reckon.
Stay in bed and watch tv or listen to some nice music is my advice!
Booster update. I had a Pfizer booster yesterday at 9.30, original doses were both AZ. Felt fine until 10 pm then overcome with feeling shit, and went to bed. Have just had the worst night in years. Headache, sweaty, everything wrong. Still have the headache, and feeling under the weather but probably over the worst.
If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...
My first AZ was like that. The worst I have felt in my entire life. I made the mistake of trying to walk to the kitchen to get some tablets and passed out. That was as bad as it got though, and although I didn’t feel right for a week after, it was just headache, dehydration and a touch of anxiety, borne of the passing out I reckon.
Stay in bed and watch tv or listen to some nice music is my advice!
Yeah AZN1 I was shaking so hard in the first night it felt like convulsions, lying in sweat drenched sheets. Two days of flu then with a finger snap felt fine on 48hrs. Hoping the PFE treats me more kindly.
Any brick in the wall that can help stop Trump is good.
It kills the BBB bill which is the bill that contains the majority of his campaign promises.
The Dems are such idiots. If they are going to blow up part of his agenda to get a little temporary positive headlines the time to do it was a week before the Governor election, not a week after.
Comments
(1) There are certain aspects of our agenda that are unpopular, and if we wish to avoid being hammered next year (and losing control of both Houses), then we should probably seek to change them.
(2) We're going to lose the House next year anyway, so we might as well force through incredibly unpopular things now.
I'm hoping that the Dems go for the first... But I suspect they'll go for the second.
However things work in perverse ways, a few months ago when these GOP governor candidates where selected by there party, it looks like the party was thinking, all that matters is to find the best candidate to beet the Deams, and they chose well. from not on, perhaps the GOP, will think 'we are going to win, so which person do I really want in power' and then they will select Trump whanbys and Trump like people, which apart from putting me off will also put off swing voters. if the Dems do the opposite, go from near complacency to concisely choosing moderate looking people, then 2022 may be very different.
Its all about the lessons you learn.
As for issues, in New Jersey the one that nearly did Gov. Murphy in, was fact that he'd actually been quoted as telling folks concerned about rising taxes that "maybe New Jersey isn't the state for you". Which alienated plenty of people in state with VERY high property taxes - including lots who are NOT anti-tax zealots but instead moderate, mostly suburban swing voters - including many moderate Democrats.
And as noted, McAuliffe & Murphy had little to say except Trump, Trump, Trump.
Looking forward to 2022, both parties will take lessons from 2021. For GOP candidates & consultants, hard to believe they will NOT copy what worked - or almost worked - in the Old Dominion and the Garden State.
That's nationalizing the mid-terms, in reverse!
BTW, re: current Woke v Woke culture wars, this is nothing new under the sun in American politics.
Last thread there was mention of French Republican calendar. Well, in the Year IX (late 1800 to me & you) incumbent John Adams and the Federalist Party were attacking Thomas Jefferson and the Republicans (of that day) as godless atheists in league with French terrorists bent on destroying western civilization with their proto-wokism.
I used to want to be the greatest lithic dildo knapper in British history. Heck I wanted to make the best Carrara Butt Plug ever seen
Now, I just want curry and a curvy lass. And to lay my head down to sleep, in the Siamese warmth
Am now going down the list of votes reported by county. Of 39 counties, 16 have Native names:
Asotin
Clallam
Chelan
Cowlitz
Kitsap
Kittitas
Klickitat
Okanogan
Skagit
Skamania
Snohomish
Spokane
Wahkiakum
Walla Walla
Whatcom
Yakima
In addition, Pend Oreille County (also River) is named after Pend Oreille Tribe, so called by French Canadian fur trappers because they wore large earrings - "hanging (from) ear" = "ear-bobber"
Will make you appreciate the (relative) aridity of southeast England!
(2) There is ample evidence that protection from CV19 - particularly thanks to Delta - wanes if you have two doses close together.
(3) There is approximately a 10-fold increase in antibody levels once one is given a third dose.
It is highly likely that we will all take Covid booster shots every couple of years, probably bundled up with one's annual flu vaccine.
Even if this wasn't true, it's still not the case that vaccines are fungible. Most of Africa lacks the infrastructure to distribute the Moderna or Pfizer mRNA vaccines (which is pretty much all the inventory in Europe).
As a Lancastrian this is what we always suspected goes on over there.
[Edit - though perhaps you'd prefer HBV?]
Are the two goals - vaccinating France and vaccinating Africa - mutually exclusive?
Indeed, large part of internal French carrot-stick policy re: jabbing, is aimed at residents of African heritage.
That said, the current low vaccination rate in across the bulk of Africa is a huge problem and must be a tremendous concern for the rest of the world, esp. Europe & North America, on multiple dimensions: medical, economical, enviromental, geo-political and above all moral.
I'd make Republicans favourite in Georgia and Arizona. Nevada a tossup with exactly the type of demographics that are going hurt Democrats with increased educational polarization and lower turnout of working class PoC. New Hampshire could well have the sitting Governor Vs sitting Senator (the Republican Governor has lead all hypothetical polling so far).
I imagine they REALLY miss the money
Second, the temperate rain forest is in the Olympic Peninsula, not here in King County. (Seattle actually gets less rain than many other American cities, including New York. But it does rain often, here.)
Third, since Glacier Peak (height:10,525 feet) is in Snohomish County, it is possible to build a fairly long lasting igloo in the county.
The last point is fair - I had forgotten how much damage Macron (amongst others, but he was one of the worst culprits) did by demonising AZ.
And what a superb debut. Political, meteorological and igloo pedantry. In the finest PB tradition. More please!
1. Think I said "mostly" nonpartisan, but you are correct, all county & city on this year's ballot were.
2. We are NOT as wet as Humptulips and the coast (thank God) to the west, or as damp as the Cascade foothills to the east. But still pretty soggy, esp this time of year. Not that it bothers me too much!
3. Have you conducted this particular experiment personally? Though there are definitely ice caves up that high, and even IIRC a little lower down.
No. I've climbed two of the big five, Rainier and St. Helens, but haven't even gotten close to Glacier. Still hoping to hike up in that area some time.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889
Edit: I should explain that Microsoft headquarters are in suburban Seattle, in Washington state.
Can NOT claim same, so will defer to your peak punditry & ice pedantry!
Will say that, out here, mentioning and honoring our local tribes is about as radical, as doing the same for military veterans and first responders.
Just bit more woke than being a Seahawks/Mariners/Sonics/Sounders/Storm/Rain/Kracken fan.
There used to be considerable anti-Indian sentiment in parts of Washington State, and clashes over resources most notably fishing rights. There are still major clashes of interest, but also much more cooperation and common interests. And some of the tribes are major economic and political players thanks to the rise of Indian gaming, which has a large non-Native customer base to say the least.
And I'll just mention that there is one more local election coming up this year. On December 7th, Kshama Sawant, Seattle's Trotskyite member of the city council, will be facing a recall election. Ballotpedia has a discussion for those who want more details.
(I haven't the faintest idea whether the recall will succeed.)
"British troops trounced Americans in war games because US military ‘is focused on culture wars’"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/brits-beat-americans-war-game-us-military-focused-culture-wars/
Best prices
NOM 11/8
Con Maj 6/4
Lab Maj 6/1
Best prices - Next FM - the Unionist candidates
Anas Sarwar (Lab) 14/1
Douglas Ross (Con) 18/1
Alex Cole-Hamilton (LD) 40/1
The portrayal of it as a British 'victory' is dishonest and ridiculous.
The MoD used get very butthurt about this type of deceptive briefing (ie when the Indian Su-30s beat RAF Typhoons in DACT) but now they specialise in it.
The Democrats real problem in policy terms is that they can’t get their more popular policies through the Senate thanks to Manchin and Sinema.
Voters like the rhetoric of ‘moderate compromise’, but the reality is the blocked policies themselves actually poll very strongly.
There other problem is that Republicans have learned to campaign at the local level, and in large parts of the country Democrats haven’t.
The very short history of Homo S. is wrapped up in this line (I reckon):
"The Royal Marines were able to dominate US forces in a training exercise because the Pentagon is too focussed on culture wars rather than actual fighting, a prominent..."
We don't know optimum dose or dosing schedule. We're still learning here.
Just as well the procuring company is the same as the storing company and so well connected.
https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1456592978785492993?t=cRGKORRm5CthXcqvbcelSg&s=19
Shame they didn’t do it a couple of weeks ago, as it might have saved my getting infected. Can’t really complain so far, as the symptoms are somewhere around very bad cold / relatively mild flu. Worst thing is how much my eyes ache.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/05/kyrsten-sinema-multi-level-marketing-labor-519661
There are plenty of Democratic moderates, but Manchin and Sinema really aren’t.
Which wasn’t that the mores of each successive generation are always “better” than the last, or that the world inexorably moves toward social progress. One glance at history tells you that, beneath the positive long term trend there are periods of stagnation and periods when the world becomes less civilised, not more.
The point is that, sooner or later, the values of the next generation, for better or worse, will supplant the values of the generation that currently holds power (and very often contain counter-reactions to their failings and mistakes). No amount of Victor Meldrew-meets-King Canute ranting from the oldies about how everything is going to pot can change the inexorable tide of demographics.
Boosting antibody response 10x or more by adding a Pfizer or Moderna booster to an initial AZ dose (indeed, it may be nearer 20x, given that those are the increases in antibody levels for Pfizer/Moderna first doses) is going to make a massive difference to the number of symptomatic Covid cases.
It also means that people who do get it have less severe infections and - on average - exhibit less viral shedding. It's a win-win-win, more people with protection, means lower levels of Covid in the air, means that vaccines are more protective.
I’d say that last has the shortest odds.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/05/house-democrats-infrastructure-vote-wait-megabill-519731
The midterms could be a disaster for the Democrats, but equally they might be surprisingly good. I think it’s a little too early to call.
Now looking forward to a virus free Christmas when we can see all our grandchildren!
https://twitter.com/l0m3z/status/1456276894664384523?s=21
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889?s=21
Mr. Isam, it's bloody weird. Compliance to bullshit is a disturbing thing.
I take it you’re fine with “bugmen”.
https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1456792449423011845
This is a man of determination and action, a man of profound thoughts and feelings, a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly
The conservative social views of the 1950's have pretty much died out with their adherents.
But actually the specific value really doesn’t matter. It was a lot. A big expense that Boris have had to pay. Goldsmith doesn’t really care since it is only theoretical lost income (the house isn’t rented out anyway) and he’s rich enough not to notice anyway.
The “credit” that Goldsmith would get from lending a friend and her husband the house is exactly the same regardless of the nominal figure.
What matters is the declaration of the gift. And that has been declared.
* for example a friend and client once invited my to join him for lunch at ascot and flew me there from battersea to avoid traffic. I disclosed that, of course, but what is the value of a seat on a chopper that would be flying anyway?
A possible explanation is that the social attitudes, music and hairstyles of youth are ‘radical’ challenges to the preceding generation, directing toward radical poltiics also, whereas the same bundle of attitudes and behaviour becomes ‘conservative’ as one sees the next generation adopting a new set of attitudes and the natural instinct is to try and keep things as they were.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_rY6gn7GNM
Any brick in the wall that can help stop Trump is good.
If that’s what Covid is like, no thanks...
My back's been irksome the last few days but I think it's starting to mend. May well add short walks and a spot of yoga to my daily routine to try and prevent it recurring (not the first time it's happened this year).
Remember the row about taking the knee at Euro not-2020? Before the tournament, there was lots of vocal opposition to that, and I bet that a few years earlier, the public would not have backed the players. Now, there's a small but clear majority supporting what the players did, with a massive lead amongst the young.
Stay in bed and watch tv or listen to some nice music is my advice!
The Dems are such idiots. If they are going to blow up part of his agenda to get a little temporary positive headlines the time to do it was a week before the Governor election, not a week after.