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Remember this from the 2016 referendum campaign? – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553
    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    kle4 said:

    Betting post?

    Boris has flaws, we all know that, but is not sniffing out a threat to his position one of them?
    Boris's calculation is presumably that Truss will neutralise Sunak and Sunak will neutralise Truss. We've seen bits of that already, such as Rishi's "I was into Brexit before it was cool" line.

    Thereby strengthening BoJo's position at the top.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I thought the German Constitutional Court had ruled a couple of times that EU law didn’t have primacy over German Fundamental Law
    That is correct.

    EU law has supremacy over national law only to the extent agreed in the treaties. If the EU claims powers that are not envisaged in its treaties, and which contradict national law (or countries' constitutions), then that it is the duty of national courts to slap the EU down.

    When countries join the EU, they make certain treaty commitments regarding their legal systems, and the maintenance of an independent judiciary. I think there is a good case that Poland (and Hungary) are no longer in compliance with their treaty commitments.

    I would suggest that the solution to this is that Poland and Hungary should cease to be members of the EU. They clearly aren't interested in "the project".

    And I would suggest that the UK should take the lead in creating a lighter-touch, less political free trade area. One that - in the fullness of time - would hopefully have a very close relationship with the EU. One that was about a single currency and political integration, and one that was solely about free trade.

    Done right, I could see a number of non-Eurozone members choose our grouping over the EU. And the EU should do better too, when stripped of all the complexity of managing two groups of members, who will often have opposing interests.
    I'm afraid this is LeaverFantasyLand.

    There already a lighter-touch, less political free trade area called EFTA and we chose not to be part of that.

    Why would Poland, for example, choose to align with the UK? Are we going to send them the subsidies or allow them the freedom of movement they get from the EU? No.
    Yep. They correctly foresaw 10 001 of the last one countries to leave the EU.
    That nation A, B, C, right through to Z is leaving any moment now is a trope akin to the day of rapture is nigh.
    In a paradoxical spasm Norway is Brexiting (Noxiting?) before it even joined.

    Leonardo Carella
    @leonardocarella
    All the countries "tipped to leave the EU", according to the Daily Express.

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1444751105934700547?s=20

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1444755743111098368?s=20
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553

    Absolute carnage round st james park

    Good job it didn’t happen during lockdown. You can only imagine the angst about super spreading... A tsoonarmy of Covid, to mangle a poor taste commentbthat got someone sacked!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,724
    edited October 7

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    With flu isn't it simply the case that the virus is continually mutating, therefore the longer you go without being in contact the latest flu variants the more likely you are to encounter a markedly different variety and the less beneficial your previously acquired immune response will be?
    No, actually. That would be more true for viruses with more continuous evolutionary paths, like coronaviruses. Flus have that, but the major thing is that they completely flip the H and N proteins between multiple versions of each. So evolution of phenotype is not smooth, but jumps from one to the other. That is why exposure to last year's flu does not confer protection against this year's.

    So with flu, the key is not whether this year's flu is similar to last year's, but whether the H and N proteins have been seen in a generation or not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    To lose lose one member in a decade is a little careless. To lose two is existential, as the rats leave the sinking ship.
    Actually, I don't think that's true at all.

    I think the EU would be a lot better off it only had countries that were broadly committed to "Ever Closer Union". Otherwise it will be forever attempting little carve outs.
    I don't think it will work that way. The commitment to "ever closer union" will wane if the EU is shrinking because it's intimately bound up with seeing the EU as Europe's destiny.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    Influenza
    Date Total
    mortality England Wales England
    and Wales Resident outside
    England and Wales
    2018 1,598 1,523 73 1,596 2
    2019 1,223 1,160 53 1,213 10
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    TimT said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    With flu isn't it simply the case that the virus is continually mutating, therefore the longer you go without being in contact the latest flu variants the more likely you are to encounter a markedly different variety and the less beneficial your previously acquired immune response will be?
    No, actually. That would be more true for viruses with more continuous evolutionary paths, like coronaviruses. Flus have that, but the major thing is that they completely flip the H and N proteins between multiple versions of each. So evolution of phenotype is not smooth, but jumps from one to the other. That is why exposure to last year's flu does not confer protection against this year's.

    So with flu, the key is not whether this year's flu is similar to last year's, but whether the H and N proteins have been seen in a generation or not.
    Ok thanks - my misunderstanding.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,724
    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Parallels to the GOP, but the GOP is considerably more f8cked
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    TimT said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Parallels to the GOP, but the GOP is considerably more f8cked
    I agree with that. The Conservative Party could reassert itself.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    Does not sound pleasant. Usually don’t mind if a cold lasts a week, any more gets irritating.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?

    "We’ve been hearing this theory too, and we can assure you that this is NOT the way your immune system works.

    this current period of contact with fewer germs does nothing to weaken the immune response you will be able to mount, as needed, in the future."

    https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/06/social-distancing-and-immune-system
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I thought the German Constitutional Court had ruled a couple of times that EU law didn’t have primacy over German Fundamental Law
    That is correct.

    EU law has supremacy over national law only to the extent agreed in the treaties. If the EU claims powers that are not envisaged in its treaties, and which contradict national law (or countries' constitutions), then that it is the duty of national courts to slap the EU down.

    When countries join the EU, they make certain treaty commitments regarding their legal systems, and the maintenance of an independent judiciary. I think there is a good case that Poland (and Hungary) are no longer in compliance with their treaty commitments.

    I would suggest that the solution to this is that Poland and Hungary should cease to be members of the EU. They clearly aren't interested in "the project".

    And I would suggest that the UK should take the lead in creating a lighter-touch, less political free trade area. One that - in the fullness of time - would hopefully have a very close relationship with the EU. One that was about a single currency and political integration, and one that was solely about free trade.

    Done right, I could see a number of non-Eurozone members choose our grouping over the EU. And the EU should do better too, when stripped of all the complexity of managing two groups of members, who will often have opposing interests.
    I'm afraid this is LeaverFantasyLand.

    There already a lighter-touch, less political free trade area called EFTA and we chose not to be part of that.

    Why would Poland, for example, choose to align with the UK? Are we going to send them the subsidies or allow them the freedom of movement they get from the EU? No.
    It is hard to see Poland leaving the EU unless they are thrown out. They make too much money, the diaspora is too widespread

    That said, they might ultimately have to make a choice, because of defence. If Western defence splits between a militarised EU led by France and an AUKUS pact led by the USA I suspect the Poles would go with the latter

    They will try and avoid a decision for as long as poss, for sure, and if the EU fails to build an army they might get away with it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    I've not had a cold for two years now. It's certainly one small silver-lining of the massive covid cloud.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?

    "We’ve been hearing this theory too, and we can assure you that this is NOT the way your immune system works.

    this current period of contact with fewer germs does nothing to weaken the immune response you will be able to mount, as needed, in the future."

    https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/06/social-distancing-and-immune-system
    Thanks for posting. I have heard quite a lot in the media about this. I guess I should have realised there was a lot of b*llshit out there...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    I've not had a cold for two years now. It's certainly one small silver-lining of the massive covid cloud.
    Likewise. One of the vanishingly few upsides of Covid. I am also much more scrupulous about hand-washing etc

    That won't go away. It's here for good
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,721

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    The UK wanted wider to stop deeper but got wider and deeper.
    I had that exact same thought, then continued it. It was Maggie's long play - set the EU on a path of not just deeper, but wider also, knowing the two were incompatible, then have the UK leave so it could watch from the sidelines as the whole edifice folded.
    The woman was omnipotent. Did she predict Boris shitting on fiscal conservatism, in 79 or 82?
    LOL. My comment was not entirely serious. :D
    I think Thatch would have hated Johnson. His glib manner, the mindless banter, the jokes, the recklessness, the appalling attention to work and detail, the less than wholehearted focus on family life.

    She was a deeply serious woman brought up in a strict Methodist household.

    Then HOW did she end up with so many cads, bounders, rotters and (to coin a phrase) sex pests in her govts?
  • If an early 70s Thatcher had a Freaky Friday and got brain swapped with today's Truss, would that day's Thatcher see today's problems in the same way as a modern day Thatcherite?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    edited October 7
    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    The Conservative party stopped being a 'conservative' party in the 80s. Thatcher was far too radical for that. They reinvented themselves as a neoliberal party under Thatcher; it's the death of that we are seeing now.

    What next? With Johnson in charge who knows - nothing good that's for sure.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    Does not sound pleasant. Usually don’t mind if a cold lasts a week, any more gets irritating.
    It has been going round the folk I know and everyone has been the same. So, no idea if it is poor immune response, or just a particularly irritatingly long cold.
    Or even if we are just noticing it so much more cos it has been a while.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    edited October 7
    TimT said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Parallels to the GOP, but the GOP is considerably more f8cked
    Trump and the GOP have not been as ideologically adaptable as Boris.

    There is a reason Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the G7 now outside Japan once Scholz almost certainly replaces Merkel (and Japan's governing party is the equally ideologically flexible LDP). The post Covid tide has been to social democratic parties and Boris has adapted accordingly
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    I've not had a cold for two years now. It's certainly one small silver-lining of the massive covid cloud.
    Likewise. One of the vanishingly few upsides of Covid. I am also much more scrupulous about hand-washing etc

    That won't go away. It's here for good
    I think the days when people will happily share a lift, meeting room, drink, lunch table etc. with someone who has a streaming cold or persistent cough are also gone for the foreseeable.

    Likewise people heroically making it into work when they are under the weather.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    I've not had a cold for two years now. It's certainly one small silver-lining of the massive covid cloud.
    Likewise. One of the vanishingly few upsides of Covid. I am also much more scrupulous about hand-washing etc

    That won't go away. It's here for good
    I think the days when people will happily share a lift, meeting room, drink, lunch table etc. with someone who has a streaming cold or persistent cough are also gone for the foreseeable.

    Likewise people heroically making it into work when they are under the weather.
    I had a 15 minute meeting/chat with a colleague in my office, during which she coughed 3 or 4 times. Would not have noticed 18 months ago. Did today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    The genius of t'internet


    "In 1921, Count Louis Zborowski named a series of racing cars “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang”. It’s where Ian Fleming got the name for his book. A “Chitty” was WW1 army slang for a leave ticket to Paris - also known as “Chitty Bangs” because a visit to Paris meant a trip to a brothel"

    https://twitter.com/WhoresofYore/status/1352331502017798144?s=20
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893

    If an early 70s Thatcher had a Freaky Friday and got brain swapped with today's Truss, would that day's Thatcher see today's problems in the same way as a modern day Thatcherite?

    No, sorry, I've read that post five times now and I still don't have a feckin' clue what you're on about.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
    More alarmingly, consider this.

    Suppose the Conservative party decided tomorrow that they didn't want Johnson as their leader any more. That Johnsonism is phoney. It's not going to happen, but suppose it did.

    Who is there who has sufficient weight and sufficient distance from BoJo that they could credibly take over and change direction? Hunt, I guess, and he could bring May back as his Willie (fnarr fnarr). But who else? Who is there who hasn't lain down with Boris enough to catch his fleas?

    (At least the US system has Senators and Governors who may be insanely right-wing, but they have independent mandates and statures. In England, virtually all the big beasts serve at the pleasure of the Leader.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
    More alarmingly, consider this.

    Suppose the Conservative party decided tomorrow that they didn't want Johnson as their leader any more. That Johnsonism is phoney. It's not going to happen, but suppose it did.

    Who is there who has sufficient weight and sufficient distance from BoJo that they could credibly take over and change direction? Hunt, I guess, and he could bring May back as his Willie (fnarr fnarr). But who else? Who is there who hasn't lain down with Boris enough to catch his fleas?

    (At least the US system has Senators and Governors who may be insanely right-wing, but they have independent mandates and statures. In England, virtually all the big beasts serve at the pleasure of the Leader.)
    Rory. But he's not an MP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    I've not had a cold for two years now. It's certainly one small silver-lining of the massive covid cloud.
    Likewise. One of the vanishingly few upsides of Covid. I am also much more scrupulous about hand-washing etc

    That won't go away. It's here for good
    I think the days when people will happily share a lift, meeting room, drink, lunch table etc. with someone who has a streaming cold or persistent cough are also gone for the foreseeable.

    Likewise people heroically making it into work when they are under the weather.
    I had a 15 minute meeting/chat with a colleague in my office, during which she coughed 3 or 4 times. Would not have noticed 18 months ago. Did today.
    Did you subconciously move back a few inches each time she coughed? That's another thing I've seen people doing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    Dunno. But I was slain by a very mild cold for two weeks.
    Ok if it was mild, why were you slain? Do you mean it was long lasting, but only mild symptoms, or was it actually a heavy cold?
    Sorry. Symptoms were very mild. Runny nose, chesty cough. Both unremarkable in their degree. But it just wouldn’t go away. And body achey and very fatigued for a fortnight. Needed 2-3 extra hours sleep a night.
    First cold for 20 months.
    I've not had a cold for two years now. It's certainly one small silver-lining of the massive covid cloud.
    Likewise. One of the vanishingly few upsides of Covid. I am also much more scrupulous about hand-washing etc

    That won't go away. It's here for good
    I think the days when people will happily share a lift, meeting room, drink, lunch table etc. with someone who has a streaming cold or persistent cough are also gone for the foreseeable.

    Likewise people heroically making it into work when they are under the weather.
    I had a 15 minute meeting/chat with a colleague in my office, during which she coughed 3 or 4 times. Would not have noticed 18 months ago. Did today.
    Did you subconciously move back a few inches each time she coughed? That's another thing I've seen people doing.
    Kinda already back to the wall...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    edited October 7

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
    More alarmingly, consider this.

    Suppose the Conservative party decided tomorrow that they didn't want Johnson as their leader any more. That Johnsonism is phoney. It's not going to happen, but suppose it did.

    Who is there who has sufficient weight and sufficient distance from BoJo that they could credibly take over and change direction? Hunt, I guess, and he could bring May back as his Willie (fnarr fnarr). But who else? Who is there who hasn't lain down with Boris enough to catch his fleas?

    (At least the US system has Senators and Governors who may be insanely right-wing, but they have independent mandates and statures. In England, virtually all the big beasts serve at the pleasure of the Leader.)
    Hunt has as much chance of being the next Tory leader after Boris as Romney has of being the 2024 GOP presidential candidate after Trump
  • If an early 70s Thatcher had a Freaky Friday and got brain swapped with today's Truss, would that day's Thatcher see today's problems in the same way as a modern day Thatcherite?

    No, sorry, I've read that post five times now and I still don't have a feckin' clue what you're on about.
    Sorry. It's not very clear.

    I was wondering what a 46 year old Thatcher would do in, say, 'Thatcherite' Truss's position. Would that Thatcher be a modern day Thatcherite?
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Looks like a Lib Dem hold in Rushcliffe.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Parallels to the GOP, but the GOP is considerably more f8cked
    Trump and the GOP have not been as ideologically adaptable as Boris.

    There is a reason Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the G7 now outside Japan once Scholz almost certainly replaces Merkel (and Japan's governing party is the equally ideologically flexible LDP). The post Covid tide has been to social democratic parties and Boris has adapted accordingly
    Boris is not a conservative. A Conservative, yes. But not a conservative.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
    More alarmingly, consider this.

    Suppose the Conservative party decided tomorrow that they didn't want Johnson as their leader any more. That Johnsonism is phoney. It's not going to happen, but suppose it did.

    Who is there who has sufficient weight and sufficient distance from BoJo that they could credibly take over and change direction? Hunt, I guess, and he could bring May back as his Willie (fnarr fnarr). But who else? Who is there who hasn't lain down with Boris enough to catch his fleas?

    (At least the US system has Senators and Governors who may be insanely right-wing, but they have independent mandates and statures. In England, virtually all the big beasts serve at the pleasure of the Leader.)
    Hunt has as much chance of being the next Tory leader after Boris as Romney has of being the 2024 GOP presidential candidate after Trump
    As high as that?

    You're right, of course. If BoJo fails, I imagine it will be for being to weak/conciliatory.

    But it's an unfortunate feature of the Westminster system, that there's only really one greasy pole to climb, and that's controlled by whoever is already at the top. (I know that there are Select Committees, but they're a different path altogether.)

    City/Region Mayors may evolve into another route to the top, but they're not there yet.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,991
    edited October 7
    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    I don't think all the joking and banter went down well; people are nervous about the cost of living, the end of the UC uplift etc.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    slade said:

    Looks like a Lib Dem hold in Rushcliffe.

    Confirmed. Con drops from 2nd to 3rd.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
    I've been surprised by how many right wingish news columns and so on have been negative about his speech.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Maybe 'Crisis, what crisis' will end up being Johnson's epitaph.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    Tesla to relocate its HQ from California to Texas

    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1446240605483401216?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Italian Vineyards are hiring machines, as they can’t get the staff.
    https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/21/10/07/1547245/robots-take-over-italys-vineyards-as-wineries-struggle-with-covid-19-worker-shortages

    (Insert “Because of Brexit” joke here).

    Even with unemployment being double what it is in the UK and youth unemployment being over 25%.
    Italian young people live at home, and don't want to work in the fields.

    It's not an uncommon problem in the Western world.
    Looking at European unemployment rates the difference between the Mediterranean countries and Eastern Europe is noticeable:

    Greece 14.6%
    Spain 14.3%
    Italy 9.3%
    France 7.9%

    Bulgaria 5.9%
    Romania 5.1%
    Hungary 4.3%
    Poland 3.4%

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

    Now there's going to be many factors involved but I wonder if that explains why the number of Eastern Europeans working in the UK has been falling but the number of Western Europeans has been increasing.
    Well, a lot of those countries unemployment rates are low because all the people of working age left to earn money abroad. The Polish diaspora is much larger than the Greek one.
    Sure, that one of the factors I referred to.

    But I am curious that the number of Western Europeans working in the UK continues to increase - who they are and where they are working I'd like to know. They're obviously not working on farms or washing cars.
    OK.

    Here's an interesting question. What has been the absolute change in the number of people employed between 2004 (when the eight were admitted) and now, for those countries.

    Spain: from 17.7m to 20.0m
    France: 26.2m to 28.7m
    Italy: 22.3m to 23.4m
    Greece: 4.4m to 3.9m
    Poland: 13.6m to 16.5m
    Hungary: 3.9m to 4.6m

    I didn't do Bulgaria and Romania as they joined the EU much later.

    (It's amazing how much better everyone else has done than Greece, isn't it?)
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
    I've been surprised by how many right wingish news columns and so on have been negative about his speech.

    From the point of view of a section of the right, Boris has outlived his use.
    That's his biggest danger. The papers choose the PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    edited October 7

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
    More alarmingly, consider this.

    Suppose the Conservative party decided tomorrow that they didn't want Johnson as their leader any more. That Johnsonism is phoney. It's not going to happen, but suppose it did.

    Who is there who has sufficient weight and sufficient distance from BoJo that they could credibly take over and change direction? Hunt, I guess, and he could bring May back as his Willie (fnarr fnarr). But who else? Who is there who hasn't lain down with Boris enough to catch his fleas?

    (At least the US system has Senators and Governors who may be insanely right-wing, but they have independent mandates and statures. In England, virtually all the big beasts serve at the pleasure of the Leader.)
    Hunt has as much chance of being the next Tory leader after Boris as Romney has of being the 2024 GOP presidential candidate after Trump
    As high as that?

    You're right, of course. If BoJo fails, I imagine it will be for being to weak/conciliatory.

    But it's an unfortunate feature of the Westminster system, that there's only really one greasy pole to climb, and that's controlled by whoever is already at the top. (I know that there are Select Committees, but they're a different path altogether.)

    City/Region Mayors may evolve into another route to the top, but they're not there yet.
    "But it's an unfortunate feature of the Westminster system, that there's only really one greasy pole to climb, and that's controlled by whoever is already at the top."

    Is it though? Wilson had all sorts of rivals in his cabinet, not least Tony Benn. He did it to balance the party - because the pressure came from the party to do that.

    Maybe what's lacking now is that kind of pressure?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    I don't think all the joking and banter went down well; people are nervous about the cost of living, the end of the UC uplift etc.

    If it all works out fine enough for enough people, the inappropriate tone of BoJo's speech will soon be yesterday's chip paper.

    If not, it's going to come back and bite him. Norman Lamont's Green Shoots, only a lot lot worse.

    And it will make Labour's job easy.

    "What's our alternative? Not treating things like a joke, for a start."

    That's all they would need.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Germany today

    22,000 cases and 411 deaths

    A statistical blip? Or their luck running out?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    Farooq said:

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
    I've been surprised by how many right wingish news columns and so on have been negative about his speech.

    From the point of view of a section of the right, Boris has outlived his use.
    That's his biggest danger. The papers choose the PM.
    They don't. The public do and as long as Boris leads the polls he is in no danger.

    Most people don't read the papers anymore anyway in the social media and internet age
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    Yes @rottenborough , it’s been an odd experience. Lots of people I’d normally expect to cheer Bozza are very conspicuously failing to see the funny side.

    (With apologies to the late, great Bob Monkhouse) They all laughed when Boris Johnson said he wanted to be a stand-up comedian. They’re not laughing now.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 732

    Rashford comes out against UC cut. Interview on BBC Breakfast tomorrow.

    Government and Sunak in particular about to be hit by the full broadside.

    If Rashford really wants a better he should join the Toon or Liverpool.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Leon said:

    Germany today

    22,000 cases and 411 deaths

    A statistical blip? Or their luck running out?

    Well, hard to know for sure. They're nowhere near as vaccinated (particularly in the East) as France/Spain/Italy/etc., so they're potentially pretty vulnerable.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they had a nasty Autumn in Thuringia/Mecklenerg/etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    I don't think all the joking and banter went down well; people are nervous about the cost of living, the end of the UC uplift etc.

    My view has been consistent on here: the government will end up backing out of the NI hike, although it might be retroactive, once people see it in their pay packets. I guess we’ll see.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
    I've been surprised by how many right wingish news columns and so on have been negative about his speech.

    From the point of view of a section of the right, Boris has outlived his use.
    That's his biggest danger. The papers choose the PM.
    They don't. The public do and as long as Boris leads the polls he is in no danger.

    Most people don't read the papers anymore anyway in the social media and internet age
    Political social media is crammed full of people sharing political output from newspapers. The papers set tones and narratives that are found in social media.
    And yeah, I'm counting news websites as "the papers". Don't @ me.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 732

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    It finally struck home this week. The Conservative Party is no more, except in name. It's the Boris Party. If you are a Conservative with values that match, you might well mourn the loss.
    Yes, there is no party for the fiscally sane or pro-business. Just a party of those who love the taste of Johnsons shoe polish.
    More alarmingly, consider this.

    Suppose the Conservative party decided tomorrow that they didn't want Johnson as their leader any more. That Johnsonism is phoney. It's not going to happen, but suppose it did.

    Who is there who has sufficient weight and sufficient distance from BoJo that they could credibly take over and change direction? Hunt, I guess, and he could bring May back as his Willie (fnarr fnarr). But who else? Who is there who hasn't lain down with Boris enough to catch his fleas?

    (At least the US system has Senators and Governors who may be insanely right-wing, but they have independent mandates and statures. In England, virtually all the big beasts serve at the pleasure of the Leader.)
    Hunt has as much chance of being the next Tory leader after Boris as Romney has of being the 2024 GOP presidential candidate after Trump
    As high as that?

    You're right, of course. If BoJo fails, I imagine it will be for being to weak/conciliatory.

    But it's an unfortunate feature of the Westminster system, that there's only really one greasy pole to climb, and that's controlled by whoever is already at the top. (I know that there are Select Committees, but they're a different path altogether.)

    City/Region Mayors may evolve into another route to the top, but they're not there yet.
    "But it's an unfortunate feature of the Westminster system, that there's only really one greasy pole to climb, and that's controlled by whoever is already at the top."

    Is it though? Wilson had all sorts of rivals in his cabinet, not least Tony Benn. He did it to balance the party - because the pressure came from the party to do that.

    Maybe what's lacking now is that kind of pressure?
    Parliament would be better if it was Macmillan v Wilson. Am I showing my age?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Where is this "backlash" against Bozza's speech?

    I read social media incessantly. This sounds like a fable, conjured from hope and wishes

    My bet is neither party will have a conference bounce. Labour didn't, nor will the Tories. Those days are over
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Germany today

    22,000 cases and 411 deaths

    A statistical blip? Or their luck running out?

    Well, hard to know for sure. They're nowhere near as vaccinated (particularly in the East) as France/Spain/Italy/etc., so they're potentially pretty vulnerable.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they had a nasty Autumn in Thuringia/Mecklenerg/etc.
    411 deaths is a huge leap from their "normal", tho their number of daily deaths WAS slowly rising, likewise cases

    As we all know one of the habits of Covid is to seek out countries which have been a *tiny bit smug* about their Covid handling, and give them a spanking. As a lesson. Perhaps now it is Germany's turn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
    I've been surprised by how many right wingish news columns and so on have been negative about his speech.

    From the point of view of a section of the right, Boris has outlived his use.
    That's his biggest danger. The papers choose the PM.
    They don't. The public do and as long as Boris leads the polls he is in no danger.

    Most people don't read the papers anymore anyway in the social media and internet age
    Political social media is crammed full of people sharing political output from newspapers. The papers set tones and narratives that are found in social media.
    And yeah, I'm counting news websites as "the papers". Don't @ me.
    It is not news sites that determine Boris' future but opinion polls. All Tory MPs care about is keeping their seats, as long as Boris leads the polls he is in no danger, if he falls behind he is in danger. It was the poor post Poll Tax polls that did for Thatcher in 1990 and IDS' poor polling that did for him in 2003.

    Otherwise provided the Tories stay in the lead Boris will stay PM and Tory leader until the next general election. Then the voters will decide if he is re elected or replaced by Starmer, if the latter then the Tories would dump him after that
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Looks like a Lib Dem hold in Rushcliffe.

    Confirmed. Con drops from 2nd to 3rd.
    Result in full. Rushcliffe Munster.

    LD 45.3% (-12.9)
    Lab 28.7% (+9.3)
    Con 26.0% (+3.6)

    LD Hold.
    Tories third for first time. Despite improved share. A rare decent Labour result these days in E Midlands.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Lib Dem hold in Waverley.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    edited October 7
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Just watching Question Time (I know, sad). Interestingly, Boris's conference speech was absolutely slammed by the panel and by the audience. Even Nadhim Zahawi couldn't think of anything good to say about it, and seemed rather taken aback by the vitriol expressed by the audience.

    Boris needs to be careful: he's starting to get the reputation that you only go to him for laughs.
    I've been surprised by how many right wingish news columns and so on have been negative about his speech.

    From the point of view of a section of the right, Boris has outlived his use.
    That's his biggest danger. The papers choose the PM.
    They don't. The public do and as long as Boris leads the polls he is in no danger.

    Most people don't read the papers anymore anyway in the social media and internet age
    Political social media is crammed full of people sharing political output from newspapers. The papers set tones and narratives that are found in social media.
    And yeah, I'm counting news websites as "the papers". Don't @ me.
    It is not news sites that determine Boris' future but opinion polls. All Tory MPs care about is keeping their seats, as long as Boris leads the polls he is in no danger, if he falls behind he is in danger. It was the poor post Poll Tax polls that did for Thatcher in 1990 and IDS' poor polling that did for him in 2003.

    Otherwise provided the Tories stay in the lead Boris will stay PM and Tory leader until the next general election. Then the voters will decide if he is re elected or replaced by Starmer, if the latter then the Tories would dump him after that
    Yup, and those who have the power to move public opinion hold the whip.
    Now is the time, get someone more reliable in who doesn't make such weird choices. Get someone a bit stuffy and sensible at the helm.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Lib Dem hold in Somerset.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    The Tories’ quadruple whammy

    Higher taxes
    Bigger bills
    Rising prices
    Bombing wisecracks
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264

    slade said:

    Lib Dem hold in Waverley.

    A bloody nose for Xi. But it’s just a matter of time before the CCP clinch the seat.
    Winnie Here!

    (Xi is apparently very sensitive to people pointing out he strongly resembles Winnie the Pooh)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    Labour gain (nominal) from Indy in Flintshire.
    I believe it was a Labour and Indy elected unopposed last time.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,460
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    httpLeaving s://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    Leaving behind an EU which resolutely speaks English, rather than French, which was the supreme language of the EU when we first joined

    Our entire EU membership can be seen as an act of comical cultural sabotage of the French. No wonder they stole our vaccines
    Fuck's sake get over the French already. Jesus.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    It looks as if Flintshire is a Labour gain. It was an Ind seat but there were 3 Ind candidates..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    edited October 7

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    httpLeaving s://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    Leaving behind an EU which resolutely speaks English, rather than French, which was the supreme language of the EU when we first joined

    Our entire EU membership can be seen as an act of comical cultural sabotage of the French. No wonder they stole our vaccines
    Fuck's sake get over the French already. Jesus.
    The French obsession exhibited by certain PBers is a weird infatuation, as if they were denied French citizenship in their formative years, and have never got over it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    And Labour hold both Nottingham wards.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I thought the German Constitutional Court had ruled a couple of times that EU law didn’t have primacy over German Fundamental Law
    That is correct.

    EU law has supremacy over national law only to the extent agreed in the treaties. If the EU claims powers that are not envisaged in its treaties, and which contradict national law (or countries' constitutions), then that it is the duty of national courts to slap the EU down.

    When countries join the EU, they make certain treaty commitments regarding their legal systems, and the maintenance of an independent judiciary. I think there is a good case that Poland (and Hungary) are no longer in compliance with their treaty commitments.

    I would suggest that the solution to this is that Poland and Hungary should cease to be members of the EU. They clearly aren't interested in "the project".

    And I would suggest that the UK should take the lead in creating a lighter-touch, less political free trade area. One that - in the fullness of time - would hopefully have a very close relationship with the EU. One that was about a single currency and political integration, and one that was solely about free trade.

    Done right, I could see a number of non-Eurozone members choose our grouping over the EU. And the EU, stripped of all the complexity of managing two groups of members, who will often have opposing interests.
    But Poles are the ones with the most favourable view of the EU. Why should they leave an organisation that is trying to defend an independent judiciary?

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/14/the-european-union/


    They elected a government with a stated goal of ignoring EU rules.

    You either join a club and abide by its rules, or you don't join the club.
    That seems a rather British way of thinking and we've already left.

    Surely the done thing to do with Europe for everyone else is to join the club, do as you please, and say you're abiding by the rules.

    It seems that saying you're abiding by the rules and agree with them while doing the opposite is more of a "good European" than saying you disagree with them but reluctantly following them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    httpLeaving s://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    Leaving behind an EU which resolutely speaks English, rather than French, which was the supreme language of the EU when we first joined

    Our entire EU membership can be seen as an act of comical cultural sabotage of the French. No wonder they stole our vaccines
    Fuck's sake get over the French already. Jesus.
    The French obsession exhibited by certain PBers is a weird infatuation, as if they were denied French citizenship in their formative years, and have never got over it.
    More like a sibling rivalry.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    One result to come.
    I know they are only Council by-elections, and thus of limited utility.
    But the Tories appear to have got a Conference faceplant. Some poor results indeed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    Yes Minister explained that well. In order to sabotage the EU, England had to be on the inside.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    dixiedean said:

    And Labour hold both Nottingham wards.

    Big advance by the Nottingham Independents largely from the Lib Dems.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited October 7
    LD hold in Somerset W and Taunton.
    And thus regain their majority of 1 on the Council.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,332
    Lib Dem hold in Somerset West and Taunton - and so of the council.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    edited October 7

    It's starting to feel like Johnson's speech has bombed.

    But it will make no difference as he has framed the next election.

    Only the forthcoming economic shitstorm can unseat him now.

    Curiously, Boris's speech was better received on the Left (typical Boris but set the right tone) than on the Right (economic and political disaster area). Ultimately though I think Boris will prevail. What's left of the Thatcherite consensus will whither and die.
    Funny how it was the Tories who finally buried Thatcherism in England. The Blair years simply continued her legacy.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    httpLeaving s://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    Leaving behind an EU which resolutely speaks English, rather than French, which was the supreme language of the EU when we first joined

    Our entire EU membership can be seen as an act of comical cultural sabotage of the French. No wonder they stole our vaccines
    Fuck's sake get over the French already. Jesus.
    The French obsession exhibited by certain PBers is a weird infatuation, as if they were denied French citizenship in their formative years, and have never got over it.
    More like a sibling rivalry.
    Indeed. The reason the French infuriate the English is because they are so similar. And vice versa.

    Arrogance
    Entitlement
    Hypocrisy
    Faux rage
    Sneakiness
    Unreliability
    Delusions of grandeur
    Bullying
    Condescending

    Peas in a pod.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Betting post?



    One almost becomes nostalgic when someone tries to bring up the topic of political betting on this blog. Such posts used to dominate threads. You almost never see them these days. The header-writers bravely try occasionally, but the subsequent threads are barren fare.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287

    Why isnt there a video with the lies of Remain.. just for balance?

    Remain lost.
    Exactly.

    The blatant big fat lies, spite and hatred of BetterTogether in 2014 and Leave in 2016 haunt the politics of these isles, and will do so until nemesis clears the air.

    Call it Cheaters’ Remorse.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    Foxy said:

    I'd like to hear what some of our liberal-left regulars love about England?

    It would be nice to find some common ground.

    I love its niche sub-cultures.

    I am not a scooterist, but seeing the scooter festival on the Isle of Wight in all its eccentricity in August is a real pleasure.
    But that is not a typically English attribute. All nations have niche sub-cultures. It is pretty much a prerequisite to being defined as a nation: a richness of texture.

    The raggarbil sub-culture of Värmland, Dalarna etc is just as eccentric, and is also valued by other Swedes who would never dream of taking part themselves.

    I do not self-define as left, although I do as liberal, and I could list lots of things that I love about England. But I don’t think Casino Royale was inviting external contributions from non-English posters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    Major Covid scandal in Australia:

    Brianna Travers @briannatravers
    #Breaking - Victoria Police confirm they are currently assessing footage of Premier Daniel Andrews walking across the Parliament carpark in Melbourne without a mask on October 7. The alleged breach of CHO directions is being reviewed by investigators.


    https://twitter.com/briannatravers/status/1446264785679437824
  • AslanAslan Posts: 732
    HYUFD said:

    Tesla to relocate its HQ from California to Texas

    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1446240605483401216?s=20

    More Democratic voting tech workers please.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,539
    edited October 8

    Maybe 'Crisis, what crisis' will end up being Johnson's epitaph.

    Really it is “Never mind the crisis, have you heard the one about…….? “

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,539
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Germany today

    22,000 cases and 411 deaths

    A statistical blip? Or their luck running out?

    Well, hard to know for sure. They're nowhere near as vaccinated (particularly in the East) as France/Spain/Italy/etc., so they're potentially pretty vulnerable.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they had a nasty Autumn in Thuringia/Mecklenerg/etc.
    411 deaths is a huge leap from their "normal", tho their number of daily deaths WAS slowly rising, likewise cases

    As we all know one of the habits of Covid is to seek out countries which have been a *tiny bit smug* about their Covid handling, and give them a spanking. As a lesson. Perhaps now it is Germany's turn
    Having spent nearly three weeks there this year, I don’t think smug is a fair description. It’s the only place I have been where observance of precautions is consistent, and challenged if you forget; in towns and cities I kept coming across free testing points and vaccination stations, with small queues of properly distanced people waiting for them.

    If Germany’s figures do go poor (and a sudden jump in daily deaths is more likely to be random fluctuation since a worsening situation should see a progressive change) the more accurate conclusion is that the new variant is sufficiently contagious that we are now wasting our time with all the precautions.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Pulpstar said:

    Why isnt there a video with the lies of Remain.. just for balance?

    The remain campaign definitely had less lies. The likes of Stuart Rose's frank truths sank it.
    Errrr fewer lies pls # grammar police
    dixiedean said:

    @stocky, @squareroot2,@Pulpstar.
    Completely missed the Super League GF discussion I was tagged in the other morning.
    I agree Saints probably should be slight favourites, given they've been there, done that more than once. Can't make it more than 55-60% though.
    11-5 represents outstanding value for a Catalans win therefore.
    One thing from today. SL Player of the Year Sam Tomkins is in the Dragons 21 after injury.
    IF he plays that is another big plus. He's done it before several times. And against Saints, too.
    The other thing is that means Arthur Mourgue plays somewhere other than full-back. He's a huge, unpredictable young talent who can do almost anything with ball in hand. Except catch a high ball. Which is quite a drawback if he plays full back.

    Thanks for this. I am far more nervous about this yrs GF than last. Last yr we should have beaten our rivals Wigan easily on the form book, but it didnt turn out like that.

    This yr, I think its almost even stevens but Saints lost appallingly with 3 tries in 5 mins and the golden point only a few weeks ago.. They will be keen to make sure that doesn't happen again. Catalan on the other hand have a chance to win Superleague for the first time. It should be a better. ... and there will be a crowd, which wasn't there last year.....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Pulpstar said:

    Why isnt there a video with the lies of Remain.. just for balance?

    The remain campaign definitely had less lies. The likes of Stuart Rose's frank truths sank it.
    Errrr fewer lies pls # grammar police
    dixiedean said:

    @stocky, @squareroot2,@Pulpstar.
    Completely missed the Super League GF discussion I was tagged in the other morning.
    I agree Saints probably should be slight favourites, given they've been there, done that more than once. Can't make it more than 55-60% though.
    11-5 represents outstanding value for a Catalans win therefore.
    One thing from today. SL Player of the Year Sam Tomkins is in the Dragons 21 after injury.
    IF he plays that is another big plus. He's done it before several times. And against Saints, too.
    The other thing is that means Arthur Mourgue plays somewhere other than full-back. He's a huge, unpredictable young talent who can do almost anything with ball in hand. Except catch a high ball. Which is quite a drawback if he plays full back.

    Thanks for this. I am far more nervous about this yrs GF than last. Last yr we should have beaten our rivals Wigan easily on the form book, but it didnt turn out like that.

    This yr, I think its almost even stevens but Saints lost appallingly with 3 tries in 5 mins and the golden point only a few weeks ago.. They will be keen to make sure that doesn't happen again. Catalan on the other hand have a chance to win Superleague for the first time. It should be a better. ... and there will be a crowd, which wasn't there last year.....
    Belter not better
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Germany today

    22,000 cases and 411 deaths

    A statistical blip? Or their luck running out?

    Well, hard to know for sure. They're nowhere near as vaccinated (particularly in the East) as France/Spain/Italy/etc., so they're potentially pretty vulnerable.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they had a nasty Autumn in Thuringia/Mecklenerg/etc.
    411 deaths is a huge leap from their "normal", tho their number of daily deaths WAS slowly rising, likewise cases

    As we all know one of the habits of Covid is to seek out countries which have been a *tiny bit smug* about their Covid handling, and give them a spanking. As a lesson. Perhaps now it is Germany's turn
    Having spent nearly three weeks there this year, I don’t think smug is a fair description. It’s the only place I have been where observance of precautions is consistent, and challenged if you forget; in towns and cities I kept coming across free testing points and vaccination stations, with small queues of properly distanced people waiting for them.

    If Germany’s figures do go poor (and a sudden jump in daily deaths is more likely to be random fluctuation since a worsening situation should see a progressive change) the more accurate conclusion is that the new variant is sufficiently contagious that we are now wasting our time with all the precautions.
    Germany really is a tale of two countries. In the West - in Bremen, Bonn, Cologne, Hamburg, etc - vaccine take up is in the 90s. In the East - Mecklenburg, Pomerania, Thuringia - it's in the high 50s or low 60s.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,039
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I thought the German Constitutional Court had ruled a couple of times that EU law didn’t have primacy over German Fundamental Law
    That is correct.

    EU law has supremacy over national law only to the extent agreed in the treaties. If the EU claims powers that are not envisaged in its treaties, and which contradict national law (or countries' constitutions), then that it is the duty of national courts to slap the EU down.

    When countries join the EU, they make certain treaty commitments regarding their legal systems, and the maintenance of an independent judiciary. I think there is a good case that Poland (and Hungary) are no longer in compliance with their treaty commitments.

    I would suggest that the solution to this is that Poland and Hungary should cease to be members of the EU. They clearly aren't interested in "the project".

    And I would suggest that the UK should take the lead in creating a lighter-touch, less political free trade area. One that - in the fullness of time - would hopefully have a very close relationship with the EU. One that was about a single currency and political integration, and one that was solely about free trade.

    Done right, I could see a number of non-Eurozone members choose our grouping over the EU. And the EU should do better too, when stripped of all the complexity of managing two groups of members, who will often have opposing interests.
    Poland receives very large subsidies from the EU, so that is rather more likely to be used as a lever. I’m not convinced we’d be a particularly attractive alternative for Poland.
    And would we really want to start such a project with Europe’s newly minted autocracies as founder members ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914
    rcs1000 said:



    And I would suggest that the UK should take the lead in creating a lighter-touch, less political free trade area. One that - in the fullness of time - would hopefully have a very close relationship with the EU. One that was about a single currency and political integration, and one that was solely about free trade.

    Done right, I could see a number of non-Eurozone members choose our grouping over the EU. And the EU should do better too, when stripped of all the complexity of managing two groups of members, who will often have opposing interests.


    This was already tried in the 60s with the Outer 7/Inner 6 structure of the EFTA and EEC. As soon as economic hard times hit in the early 70s members of the Outer 7 started wanting to come in from the cold.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,287
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Germany today

    22,000 cases and 411 deaths

    A statistical blip? Or their luck running out?

    Well, hard to know for sure. They're nowhere near as vaccinated (particularly in the East) as France/Spain/Italy/etc., so they're potentially pretty vulnerable.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they had a nasty Autumn in Thuringia/Mecklenerg/etc.
    411 deaths is a huge leap from their "normal", tho their number of daily deaths WAS slowly rising, likewise cases

    As we all know one of the habits of Covid is to seek out countries which have been a *tiny bit smug* about their Covid handling, and give them a spanking. As a lesson. Perhaps now it is Germany's turn
    Having spent nearly three weeks there this year, I don’t think smug is a fair description. It’s the only place I have been where observance of precautions is consistent, and challenged if you forget; in towns and cities I kept coming across free testing points and vaccination stations, with small queues of properly distanced people waiting for them.

    If Germany’s figures do go poor (and a sudden jump in daily deaths is more likely to be random fluctuation since a worsening situation should see a progressive change) the more accurate conclusion is that the new variant is sufficiently contagious that we are now wasting our time with all the precautions.
    Agreed re Germans’ behaviour: conformance to the rules is astounding. Definitely not “smug” as Sean claims. Like most things, they take Covid very seriously.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232
    edited October 8
    Nigelb said:

    Poland receives very large subsidies from the EU, so that is rather more likely to be used as a lever. I’m not convinced we’d be a particularly attractive alternative for Poland.
    And would we really want to start such a project with Europe’s newly minted autocracies as founder members ?

    Regardless of the attractiveness or moral dubiety of such an association, it’s the ‘Done right’ element that looks the biggest stumbling block. What are the chances that the current incompetent bunch of ****s could successfully fashion such an alliance?

    Pig farmer on R4 saying pigs to slaughter down 25% week on week, culling accelerating and the chances of the end of UK pig farming increasing, meanwhile DEFRA and Useless Eustice issuing the same bland statement and refusing to put anyone up for interview.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,039
    TimT said:

    One thing I am not clued up on is the idea of the immune system being weakened over the last 18 months by not being so exposed to pathogens. Lots of people suggesting this, but how true is it? Does the immune system need constant work outs?

    With flu isn't it simply the case that the virus is continually mutating, therefore the longer you go without being in contact the latest flu variants the more likely you are to encounter a markedly different variety and the less beneficial your previously acquired immune response will be?
    No, actually. That would be more true for viruses with more continuous evolutionary paths, like coronaviruses. Flus have that, but the major thing is that they completely flip the H and N proteins between multiple versions of each. So evolution of phenotype is not smooth, but jumps from one to the other. That is why exposure to last year's flu does not confer protection against this year's.

    So with flu, the key is not whether this year's flu is similar to last year's, but whether the H and N proteins have been seen in a generation or not.
    The rate of flu vaccination in the over 60s is also likely to be higher than normal, I think ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,039

    I'd like to hear what some of our liberal-left regulars love about England?

    It would be nice to find some common ground.

    We’re more woke than most ? :smile:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    To lose lose one member in a decade is a little careless. To lose two is existential, as the rats leave the sinking ship.
    Actually, I don't think that's true at all.

    I think the EU would be a lot better off it only had countries that were broadly committed to "Ever Closer Union". Otherwise it will be forever attempting little carve outs.

    I think they would also be wise to make it clear that treaty commitments are treaty commitments. If you can't do the time, don't do the... you know.
    Which countries do you think would prefer the UK's lighter touch? Just Sweden and Denmark? Can't really see the Eastern 6 preferring it without the monetary transfers.
    Well, that's the thing with the Eastern 6. They want:

    - free movement so that their people can remit money home
    - no Euro
    - fiscal transfers from Brussels
    - to do things that are not allowed in the treaties

    And it's their call. They can choose the EU or our lighter touch regime. Or nothing at all. But they don't get to dictate that the rules only apply to them.

    It will be a difficult call for them. Poland is very Atlanticist. I could see them joining with us. Hungary and Czechia, on the other hand, would probably stay with the EU. The Baltics have all joined the Euro, so they've kind of made their decision.
    I think in the Baltics joining the Euro is seen as part of their defence policy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Nigelb said:

    I'd like to hear what some of our liberal-left regulars love about England?

    It would be nice to find some common ground.

    We’re more woke than most ? :smile:
    Not at this time of the morning we’re not. *sips tea wearily*
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    In a strongly-worded initial reaction, the European Commission said the decision on Thursday raised “serious concerns”. It reaffirmed that “EU law has primacy over national law, including constitutional provisions”.


    That's the Guardian today on the Poland constitutional case. Just a reminder that those who think the EU is not an emerging state, and those who think everyone else is wonderfully happy with this conflicted and oxymoronic nightmare may be mistaken.

    httpLeaving s://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/polish-court-rules-that-eu-laws-incompatible-with-its-constitution


    BTW, the SNP are unhappy with the UK having control over the Scottish constitutional settlement, while wanting the EU to 'have primacy over (Scottish) national law, including constitutional provisions'. Fascinating.

    The problem with this analysis is that the Polish Constitutional Court isn't an independent body that deliberates before coming to reasoned and objective judgment. It's a kangaroo court stuffed with ruling party stooges who do precisely what they are told by their government masters.

    It is a massive problem for the EU however. A bigger threat to them in my view than Brexit. It can't really function if members don't respect the rule of law and and have a strong and independent judiciary.
    I think the EU would do better as a smaller grouping, and the Poles don't really want to be part of "the project" anyway.

    Why not split amicably now?
    Rather ironic we pushed and pushed for expansion eastwards. Then buggered off.
    Leaving behind an EU which resolutely speaks English, rather than French, which was the supreme language of the EU when we first joined

    Our entire EU membership can be seen as an act of comical cultural sabotage of the French. No wonder they stole our vaccines
    Fuck's sake get over the French already. Jesus.
    The French obsession exhibited by certain PBers is a weird infatuation, as if they were denied French citizenship in their formative years, and have never got over it.
    More like a sibling rivalry.
    Indeed. The reason the French infuriate the English is because they are so similar. And vice versa.

    Arrogance
    Entitlement
    Hypocrisy
    Faux rage
    Sneakiness
    Unreliability
    Delusions of grandeur
    Bullying
    Condescending

    Peas in a pod.
    Ah yes, another English expert speaking from his home in Sweden. ;)

    Besides, I don't really see that list being true of either the English or the French. Or, at least, they're applicable in various ways to most countries, in that they're common aspects of human nature.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    The EU will go through the motions on Poland but won't do anything serious as it won't want to alienate the whole Visegrad group, which can form a blocking minority and also buffers the EU to the East.

    In a competition between principles and real-politik the latter wins.
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