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Conference season ends with Hung Parliament still betting favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912

    Off topic

    What an absolutely vile post.

    And the two people who gave you a like should be ashamed of themselves.
    lol. Are you not au fait with the collected posts of @Dura_Ace including the one to which I was replying?
  • Off topic

    What an absolutely vile post.

    And the two people who gave you a like should be ashamed of themselves.
    Agreed, on both fronts.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,157
    edited October 2021
    gealbhan said:

    There’s two points there, and I broadly agree with both. If problem is Labour shortage, and it’s possible to automate, that is a measure that will help. Not an overnight answer though, surely good government helps automate first pulls up drawbridge second.

    Second point, why is anyone defending not just slave wage shops particularly in rag trade putting things on hangers in our shops, you say Bangladesh but why not say Leicester, England, too?

    That’s not the point I am making though. Nor am I making it alone, think tanks across political spectrum all saying

    The shortages crisis is not an issue about wages but shortage of people available right now to do the work. They actually steal the pool off each other, not solved, but transferred. Industries offering high wages to attract an ever twindling supply of people qualified to fill vacancies is not real wage growth based on greater productivity, it's a labour shortage. Just paying higher wages doesn’t sort something that is not a wage issue but shortage issue. To raise prices to raise wages doesn’t make anyone better off so shouldn’t be sold as that.

    and Boris lied yesterday, for many leave voters Brexit was not about completely stopping immigration by pulling up a draw bridge, it was about taking back control. The Adam Smith institute particularly scathing about Boris extreme line on immigration, saying it’s claimed to be needed to solve a problem that is not really there.

    Is Boris actually boxed in by promises to working class voters of sunlit uplands. Could Brexit actually be implemented more strongly by Starmer’s Labour government?
    You couldn't fit Sunak's prepubescent penis into the gap between tory and Labour on policy but you'd get a better Brexit, to the limited extent that such a thing exists, from Labour because the EU don't hate them to quite the same quivering intensity as they do Johnson and Fat Frosty.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    edited October 2021

    Same as trading with any market anywhere in the world. Want access for your products? You have to be compliant with their laws.
    To say something like that is to misunderstand the difference between a free trade agreement and a single market.
  • Leon said:

    I don't take him seriously at all, but he can entertain

    I am increasingly sure he is a comic construction. Too many contradictions
    A bit more psychological projection there too?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021
    algarkirk said:

    Poor old SKS is electable. It's his MPs, the party and now the Labour voters that stand in the way of his being a credible alternative.

    Who is there who doesn't already vote Labour that will switch to vote with the Corbynites?

    I'm not at all convinced dreary, untrustworthy, boring Mogadon Man Keir is electable.

    When he's viewed by the public as less trustworthy than Boris Johnson* in many polls, and for quite good reason, but has few redeeming qualities then how exactly is he electable?

    Simply not being Corbyn is a necessary but not sufficient condition, to being electable.

    * And I say that as someone who likes Boris, but I would never suggest that trustworthiness is his key attribute.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2021
    Sandpit said:

    “1992” is the most likely outcome on the scale, probably 60% chance.

    I’d put a Hung Parliament at 30%, increased majority at 8% and Lab Majority at 2%.

    I’d also suggest October 2023 for Election Day, so two years from now. They won’t go long if they can avoid it, but also don’t want to go before the new boundaries are in place.
    Indeed. And December 2019 sank forever the old-fashioned notion that winter elections go badly for governing parties. That belonged to the bygone days of gas lighting and smog, if it ever really belonged at all.
  • Leon said:

    lol. Are you not au fait with the collected posts of @Dura_Ace including the one to which I was replying?
    reminds me, I've not liked it yet.

    Cheers Mexican Pete!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    Sandpit said:

    So if retail runs out of chocolate boxes, we get to see the Creme Eggs before Christmas? ;)
    I had a Creme Egg yesterday; no need to wait. Grandchild picked it off a shop shelf unnoticed and unwrapped it. So we had to buy it and I had to eat it.
  • As far as obviously constructed personas on this forum go, his is certainly more entertaining than others'.
    Agreed, and assuming his stated service in the RN is truthful (his posts seem pretty credible) he has done a bit more for his country than rant away on a political blog about the marvels of Brexit, write travel guides and the odd low-brow novel.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664

    My guess is that if the SNP do frame legislation there will be a legal challenge from a unionist "Miller" before it takes place. The point you make is interesting because perhaps Sturgeon will make the case that the referendum is "advisory" and therefore legal.
    SFAICS while the UK parliament can do as it likes (the fact it couldn't in the EU days was one of the objections to it) all subsidiary governing bodies, down to Great Snoring Parish Council can only do what a UK statute ultimately empowers them to do.

    The question about a Scottish inspired advisory referendum will be: where is the enactment which allows it? Can our Scottish friends help?

  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Yes that is quite common. I went for a job with a French company many years ago before I set up my own business. Having previously worked for a big US corp it was a bit of a shock. Obviously it was in the days before diversity was a big thing, but it was clear that everyone in the Paris HQ was French, middle aged, white and male; a complete contrast to the US company I was then part of. I declined a further interview, though I probably wouldn't have got the job anyway, not being French.
    The French company I worked for had the same approach of needing to be an old white French man to get to the top. To be fair they were diversifying rapdiy so that being white and a man were no longer pre-requisites. However, the one which was not changing was the requirement to be French.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    Dura_Ace said:

    You couldn't fit Sunak's prepubescent penis into the gap between tory and Labour on policy but you'd get a better Brexit, to the limited extent that such a thing exists, from Labour because the EU don't hate them to quite the same quivering intensity as they do Johnson and Fat Frosty.
    Confused. On the one hand you tell us the French don't give a shit about the Brits, on the other hand the EU - which is at least half French - loathes Boris Johnson and Lord Frost with a "quivering intensity"

    Some dissonance here. Not for the first time
  • I'm not at all convinced dreary, untrustworthy, boring Mogadon Man Keir is electable.

    When he's viewed by the public as less trustworthy than Boris Johnson* in many polls, and for quite good reason, but has few redeeming qualities then how exactly is he electable?

    Simply not being Corbyn is a necessary but not sufficient condition, to being electable.

    * And I say that as someone who likes Boris, but I would never suggest that trustworthiness is his key attribute.
    Yea, but you absolutely adore Boris, so you judgement is, shall we say, both impartial and highly suspect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213
    Good article on Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/can-nuclear-fusion-put-the-brakes-on-climate-change
    … In 1976, the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration published a study predicting how quickly nuclear fusion could become a reality, depending on how much money was invested in the field. For around nine billion a year in today’s dollars—described as the “Maximum Effective Effort”—it projected reaching fusion energy by 1990. The scale descended to about a billion dollars a year, which the study projected would lead to “Fusion Never.” “And that’s about what’s been spent,” the British physicist Steven Cowley told me. “Pretty close to the maximum amount you could spend in order to never get there.”…

    We’re now, finally, doing a little bit better.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Why don't you j
    ..
    Edit.

    Can't be bothered. Off for some fresh air.
  • algarkirk said:

    SFAICS while the UK parliament can do as it likes (the fact it couldn't in the EU days was one of the objections to it) all subsidiary governing bodies, down to Great Snoring Parish Council can only do what a UK statute ultimately empowers them to do.

    The question about a Scottish inspired advisory referendum will be: where is the enactment which allows it? Can our Scottish friends help?

    That a rather Napoleonic outlook. "Everything is forbidden unless it's allowed".

    The Scottish Parliament isn't only allowed to do what it's allowed to do. The Scottish Parliament can do what it likes so long as it's not forbidden to do it. "Everything is allowed unless it's forbidden".

    So the question is where is the enactment which forbids it? If by being advisory as per Miller the referenda isn't reserved then what's forbidding it?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    kle4 said:

    I still think that chap named Whitehouse should be the nominee. Send Whitehouse to the White House.
    Nah! I wanna see the lawn signs proclaiming 'Hope trumps all!' Or even "Hope trumps Trump"
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Quiz question:

    Which one of those got Labour into power?
    Was it a) the most popular with 2019 Labour voters, or b) one of those equally most unpopular with 2019 Labour voters?
    I'd be more interested to see the poll for those who voted Labour in 2017 but not 2019. And a Starmer vs Bojo for the same group.
  • No it doesn't. Because EFTA countries are fully involved in the development of legislation on those areas that affect them and in the end it only becomes legislation in the EFTA countries if agreed by the EFTA court and the individual countries. There is no qualified majority voting and each EFTA member has to agree individually.
    Don't confuse him with facts. This is new Gospel of Brexit According to St Paul. He probably thinks Nigel Farage is a heretic and too pro-European!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664

    Quite possibly correct. I would if I was Johnson.
    I don't think a 2022 election is impossible, if an excuse can be engineered and the polls OK. But unlikely, as these hurdles are large. Boris will not want to go down as Mark II T May.

    By the law of entropy the longer that passes the less predictable is a Tory victory, As I see it the chances of a Tory majority (326+) are drifting from 40%+ to 40%- in the last week or so.

  • That a rather Napoleonic outlook. "Everything is forbidden unless it's allowed".

    The Scottish Parliament isn't only allowed to do what it's allowed to do. The Scottish Parliament can do what it likes so long as it's not forbidden to do it. "Everything is allowed unless it's forbidden".

    So the question is where is the enactment which forbids it? If by being advisory as per Miller the referenda isn't reserved then what's forbidding it?
    Although by the same token an Act forbidding it could be passed pdq.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    edited October 2021
    algarkirk said:

    I don't think a 2022 election is impossible, if an excuse can be engineered and the polls OK. But unlikely, as these hurdles are large. Boris will not want to go down as Mark II T May.

    By the law of entropy the longer that passes the less predictable is a Tory victory, As I see it the chances of a Tory majority (326+) are drifting from 40%+ to 40%- in the last week or so.

    Brenda from Bristol would not be happy with a 2022 election. Two years early with a majority of 80 - you've got to be kidding!

    BJ would need a jolly good excuse to go in 2022, and even if he found/invented one it could easily backfire.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664

    Only if you are deranged enough to believe national membership (or perhaps associate membership) of a supranational organisation makes a country a "satellite". Under such twisted logic we are also satellites of NATO and the UN
    I think we have been here before. Neither NATO nor UN have overriding law making and law limiting powers over the UK parliament. Nor are they building a common currency and running an elected parliament.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    algarkirk said:

    I don't think a 2022 election is impossible, if an excuse can be engineered and the polls OK. But unlikely, as these hurdles are large. Boris will not want to go down as Mark II T May.

    By the law of entropy the longer that passes the less predictable is a Tory victory, As I see it the chances of a Tory majority (326+) are drifting from 40%+ to 40%- in the last week or so.
    Market agrees with you. Notwithstanding the triumphalist mood of the Tory conf - and Muscly's rollicking sidesplitter of a speech - the betting drift is away from them and towards Lab and Starmer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Foxy said:

    The 2 week wait is until seen, there are seperate targets for treatment. 31 days and 62 days to commence treatment.

    On my Trust dashboard 65% of 2 week cancer waits were seen on time, 79% of Breast suspects. 98% start chemo within 31 days, but only 70% get surgery in that time.

    This is because of staff shortages and redeployment to ICU from theatres etc.

    65% of 2 week cancer waits were seen on time. That is useless.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    edited October 2021

    As far as obviously constructed personas on this forum go, his is certainly more entertaining than others'.
    If he's a construct his author has certainly shown more distinctive imagination than 'others'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    The Orwell article on nationalism that was shared earlier was *really* excellent. Everybody on here should read it - and probably reflect on how we're all guilty of some of the logical fallacies he identifies.
  • algarkirk said:

    I think we have been here before. Neither NATO nor UN have overriding law making and law limiting powers over the UK parliament. Nor are they building a common currency and running an elected parliament.

    Neither is the EEA which is the body we were discussing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664

    That a rather Napoleonic outlook. "Everything is forbidden unless it's allowed".

    The Scottish Parliament isn't only allowed to do what it's allowed to do. The Scottish Parliament can do what it likes so long as it's not forbidden to do it. "Everything is allowed unless it's forbidden".

    So the question is where is the enactment which forbids it? If by being advisory as per Miller the referenda isn't reserved then what's forbidding it?
    You are confusing the general law of individual freedom and the law of local government. Local government at every level is a creation of statute. Its actions, unless authorised by law, are ultra vires and as such illegal.

  • I had a Creme Egg yesterday; no need to wait. Grandchild picked it off a shop shelf unnoticed and unwrapped it. So we had to buy it and I had to eat it.
    I'm sure the grandkid learned a valuable life lesson as he watched you consume it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    The Conservatives are losing their reputation as a low tax party - 64% of Britons think that taxes would rise under a future Tory government, but only 56% say the same of Labour

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/10/07/most-britons-now-say-government-are-handling-econo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=adam_tories_tax https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1446123300648669193/photo/1

    Public opinion on the government's handling of the economy, tax and inflation has become much more negative recently

    % saying handling badly:
    Economy: 54% (+7 from 6 Sep)
    Inflation: 53% (+15)
    Tax: 60% (+13)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/10/07/most-britons-now-say-government-are-handling-econo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=adam_tories_tax https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1446123306294267909/photo/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    Nigelb said:

    Good article on Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/can-nuclear-fusion-put-the-brakes-on-climate-change
    … In 1976, the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration published a study predicting how quickly nuclear fusion could become a reality, depending on how much money was invested in the field. For around nine billion a year in today’s dollars—described as the “Maximum Effective Effort”—it projected reaching fusion energy by 1990. The scale descended to about a billion dollars a year, which the study projected would lead to “Fusion Never.” “And that’s about what’s been spent,” the British physicist Steven Cowley told me. “Pretty close to the maximum amount you could spend in order to never get there.”…

    We’re now, finally, doing a little bit better.

    I would actually say that a lot of fundamental research needed to be done. A crash program would have just... crashed into the obstacles faster. There is a fair amount of combined fundamental science and engineering to be worked out before you get a break-even tomak.

    To get one that actually generates net power is even more work.

    I am not convinced that throwing money at it will increase the rate of progress.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    Heathener said:

    Indeed. And December 2019 sank forever the old-fashioned notion that winter elections go badly for governing parties. That belonged to the bygone days of gas lighting and smog, if it ever really belonged at all.
    I think the winter of 2021 will not be one to try that out.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,157

    Brenda from Bristol would not be happy with a 2022 election. Two years early with a majority of 80 - you've got to be kidding!

    BJ would need a jolly good excuse to go in 2022, and even if he found/invented one it could easily backfire.
    Even a glib and shameless liar like Johnson would struggle to come up with an enabling fabrication for a 2022 GE. Some bollocks about Brexit and the Six Counties? Maybe? A fresh mandate is required to consolidate the already stunning gains of the Brexit revolution?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973
    edited October 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    Even a glib and shameless liar like Johnson would struggle to come up with an enabling fabrication for a 2022 GE. Some bollocks about Brexit and the Six Counties? Maybe? A fresh mandate is required to consolidate the already stunning gains of the Brexit revolution?
    A Trudeauesque Covid recovery election? Load of balls of course but that would be no impediment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    To say something like that is to misunderstand the difference between a free trade agreement and a single market.
    I find the single currency a very interesting concept.

    (i) If you share a currency you should logically share fiscal and monetary policy. Given that fiscal and monetary policy is at the heart of government this means an end to serious national autonomy.

    (ii) It makes no sense whatsoever for countries who trade a lot together and have similar economies to each have their own silly little currency. That's the ultimate in pointless friction and red tape. It's nuts.

    These, for me, are both true.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Neither is the EEA which is the body we were discussing.
    And, in fact, the UN does have such powers over most nations. Chapter 7 UNSCRs are binding on all Member States. The UK and other P5 have the power of veto within the Council, so I suppose it is true, but only with the proviso 'over the UK/French/Russian/Chinese/US'.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    Dura_Ace said:

    Even a glib and shameless liar like Johnson would struggle to come up with an enabling fabrication for a 2022 GE. Some bollocks about Brexit and the Six Counties? Maybe? A fresh mandate is required to consolidate the already stunning gains of the Brexit revolution?
    I can't imagine NI being an election-winning issue in GB outside one or two Scottish central belt constituencies.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kinabalu said:

    I find the single currency a very interesting concept.

    (i) If you share a currency you should logically share fiscal and monetary policy. Given that fiscal and monetary policy is at the heart of government this means an end to serious national autonomy.

    (ii) It makes no sense whatsoever for countries who trade a lot together and have similar economies to each have their own silly little currency. That's the ultimate in pointless friction and red tape. It's nuts.

    These, for me, are both true.
    The latter statement is not true for me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    TimT said:

    Sean in all his guises has been banned or given time outs. He is always back because at his best he is the funniest and most thought provoking and challenging poster. And he can write beautifully when he puts his mind to it. This site is always the poorer when he is absent, and sometimes when he is present.
    I like his posts when he's not talking about what he's always talking about.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,976
    Given the site's anthing or one but Noris stance, I am interested to speculate how an appalling poll for Labour might be spun on a future thread as somehow good for Starmer.

    Anyone care what form this premise might be expounded ? I suspect the poll will be ignored.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    MrEd said:

    Replying to @gealbhan

    If firms think the cost of labour is too high, they can automate. They didn’t though previously because labour was so cheap. Many will choose - and I use the word choose - because it means investment cost and they would much rather protect margins, cash etc.

    Re the hospitality industry, yes I don’t want them to class but maybe it is not such a great idea to base your business model on low cost labour. If Primark turned round tomorrow and said “sorry we are struggling because we can’t use low cost labour from Bangladesh, sympathy would be limited.

    Serious question:

    In the last twenty five years, median wage growth was rubbish in the UK, the US, and in Japan. Indeed, it was dreadful across the developed world, except in Australia and Canada (which had resources booms), and Germany (where the rise in wages in the East made up for stagnation in the West).

    If it's all to do with immigration, why have the same trends also been seen in countries with very low levels of immigration?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:

    You are confusing the general law of individual freedom and the law of local government. Local government at every level is a creation of statute. Its actions, unless authorised by law, are ultra vires and as such illegal.

    The Scotland Act seems to think otherwise; s 29 says what it *cannot* do and implies that anything else, it can.

    What it can't do is things that relate to reserved matters. The union is a reserved matter and it seems to me a referendum relates to the Union whether it's advisory or not. But so what? S 29 says an Act is "not law" if it relates to a reserved matter, it doesn't say it's otherwise wrong or ultra vires. So if the Parliament votes for a referendum and holds one, there's no sanction.
  • Good news, we'll be able to see the rat corpse upon which we're gnawing.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    TimT said:

    Sean in all his guises has been banned or given time outs. He is always back because at his best he is the funniest and most thought provoking and challenging poster. And he can write beautifully when he puts his mind to it. This site is always the poorer when he is absent, and sometimes when he is present.
    I don't know who this "Sean" guy he is but he sounds amazing. Witty, wise and provocative. I for one wish he'd post a lot more
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rcs1000 said:

    Serious question:

    In the last twenty five years, median wage growth was rubbish in the UK, the US, and in Japan. Indeed, it was dreadful across the developed world, except in Australia and Canada (which had resources booms), and Germany (where the rise in wages in the East made up for stagnation in the West).

    If it's all to do with immigration, why have the same trends also been seen in countries with very low levels of immigration?
    I think Piketty suggested an alternative explanation, did he not?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Scotland Act seems to think otherwise; s 29 says what it *cannot* do and implies that anything else, it can.

    What it can't do is things that relate to reserved matters. The union is a reserved matter and it seems to me a referendum relates to the Union whether it's advisory or not. But so what? S 29 says an Act is "not law" if it relates to a reserved matter, it doesn't say it's otherwise wrong or ultra vires. So if the Parliament votes for a referendum and holds one, there's no sanction.
    BTW did you see my reply to your question the other day? About 20 posts from last in 'Big Speech Reactoin'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    TimT said:

    I think Piketty suggested an alternative explanation, did he not?
    Yes, but he also completely made up his numbers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,675
    Scott_xP said:

    The Conservatives are losing their reputation as a low tax party - 64% of Britons think that taxes would rise under a future Tory government, but only 56% say the same of Labour

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/10/07/most-britons-now-say-government-are-handling-econo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=adam_tories_tax https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1446123300648669193/photo/1

    Public opinion on the government's handling of the economy, tax and inflation has become much more negative recently

    % saying handling badly:
    Economy: 54% (+7 from 6 Sep)
    Inflation: 53% (+15)
    Tax: 60% (+13)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/10/07/most-britons-now-say-government-are-handling-econo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=adam_tories_tax https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1446123306294267909/photo/1

    People will get a nice surprise in spring 2023 when there's a big budget tax cut just in time for the election then! :D
  • Leon said:

    I don't know who this "Sean" guy he is but he sounds amazing. Witty, wise and provocative. I for one wish he'd post a lot more
    You keep linking to that trite fcuking piece on Brexit as childbirth by him, so I'm a teensy bit surprised you don't know who he is.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Serious question:

    In the last twenty five years, median wage growth was rubbish in the UK, the US, and in Japan. Indeed, it was dreadful across the developed world, except in Australia and Canada (which had resources booms), and Germany (where the rise in wages in the East made up for stagnation in the West).

    If it's all to do with immigration, why have the same trends also been seen in countries with very low levels of immigration?
    Because it is not so much to do with immigration per se as globalisation. If you can import cheap labour then fine. If not then you export your business to a country that already has cheap labour. Look at those numbers I dug out earlier in the year on the destruction of the US Middle Classes. In 1978 US companies offshored 150,000 jobs to other countries. In 2018 that number was 14.4 million.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    kinabalu said:

    I find the single currency a very interesting concept.

    (i) If you share a currency you should logically share fiscal and monetary policy. Given that fiscal and monetary policy is at the heart of government this means an end to serious national autonomy.

    (ii) It makes no sense whatsoever for countries who trade a lot together and have similar economies to each have their own silly little currency. That's the ultimate in pointless friction and red tape. It's nuts.

    These, for me, are both true.
    This goes straight to the heart of the Remain/Brexit dilemma. And was compounded by the degree of evasion and denial around in the campaigns about what the issues were.

    National sovereignty both does and does not make sense.
    EU sovereignty both does and does not make sense.

    This is why instead of silly games the two sides, both correct in very big ways, need to understand each other better.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912

    You keep linking to that trite fcuking piece on Brexit as childbirth by him, so I'm a teensy bit surprised you don't know who he is.
    Is that by the same guy???!

    Ah. Now it makes sense. That piece was genius. No wonder you're all obsessed with him
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    TimT said:


    The latter statement is not true for me.
    Different currencies don't introduce that much red tape. Indeed, these days - with contactless payments replacing cash, and with incredibly low cost transfers - it's pretty negligible.

    Where firms have have issues (historically) is when they order from a company in country X, and then that country's currency appreciated, and what looked like a great deal now looks pretty awful. And while this is rarely a problem for big companies, that have treasury departments that can do hedging, it is an issue for smaller firms. Indeed, if I wasn't really busy, it would be very interesting to look at creating a business that did easy hedging for smaller companies.

    I would be very interested to know if the Eurozone did boost inter-Eurozone trade. Did the single currency mean that Germans were more likely to buy from Italians and Spaniards from the Dutch?
  • algarkirk said:

    You are confusing the general law of individual freedom and the law of local government. Local government at every level is a creation of statute. Its actions, unless authorised by law, are ultra vires and as such illegal.

    No you're confusing it I'm afraid. The Scotland Act (as amended) specifies what can't be done, rather than what is allowed. As such anything not forbidden is permitted applies.

    There is an argument that an independence referendum is forbidden as it relates to the union [which is reserved and thus forbidden] but there is a counter-argument that as per Miller a referendum is purely advisory and therefore does not relate to the union. Sounds perverse, but could be right legally.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    algarkirk said:

    You are confusing the general law of individual freedom and the law of local government. Local government at every level is a creation of statute. Its actions, unless authorised by law, are ultra vires and as such illegal.

    Except that under the Localism Act local authorities in England can apply for and be granted a general power of competence that allows them to spend public funds on any purpose that they deem beneficial to their community that is not specifically forbidden by law.

    Northern Ireland and Wales have enacted similar provisions for their local authorities. It does not make sense that the devolved administrations would have the power to grant such general power of competence to their lower tiers but not possess it themselves.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    rcs1000 said:

    The Orwell article on nationalism that was shared earlier was *really* excellent. Everybody on here should read it - and probably reflect on how we're all guilty of some of the logical fallacies he identifies.

    Yes - a reason that I like it so much, is that it makes you *think*

    Despite disagreeing with Orwell on many, many things, I would love to have had an evening of conversation with him. I would probably have received the intellectual equivalent of popping in the ring with Mike Tyson, but worth it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    Because it is not so much to do with immigration per se as globalisation. If you can import cheap labour then fine. If not then you export your business to a country that already has cheap labour. Look at those numbers I dug out earlier in the year on the destruction of the US Middle Classes. In 1978 US companies offshored 150,000 jobs to other countries. In 2018 that number was 14.4 million.
    I'd argue that's one of four factors:

    1. Globalisation
    2. Automation
    3. Ageing populations
    4. Low interest rates that pushed up asset prices, and raised the cost of living for the ordinary people.

    Between them, they have stuffed everyone who isn't in the top quartile.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    algarkirk said:

    This goes straight to the heart of the Remain/Brexit dilemma. And was compounded by the degree of evasion and denial around in the campaigns about what the issues were.

    National sovereignty both does and does not make sense.
    EU sovereignty both does and does not make sense.

    This is why instead of silly games the two sides, both correct in very big ways, need to understand each other better.

    My own disillusionment with the EU began when I realized that the principle of subsidiarity was not really respected at all and would never be as it is at odds with the human nature of (EC) bureaucrats. Subsidiarity was and is the way to square the circle on national vs EU sovereignty. Without it, I go for national sovereignty.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    edited October 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Different currencies don't introduce that much red tape. Indeed, these days - with contactless payments replacing cash, and with incredibly low cost transfers - it's pretty negligible.

    Where firms have have issues (historically) is when they order from a company in country X, and then that country's currency appreciated, and what looked like a great deal now looks pretty awful. And while this is rarely a problem for big companies, that have treasury departments that can do hedging, it is an issue for smaller firms. Indeed, if I wasn't really busy, it would be very interesting to look at creating a business that did easy hedging for smaller companies.

    I would be very interested to know if the Eurozone did boost inter-Eurozone trade. Did the single currency mean that Germans were more likely to buy from Italians and Spaniards from the Dutch?
    I've experienced this on recent trips to the continent. Contactless payment is now ubiquitous, so you don't really notice that you are using a different currency. It is frictionless

    In four weeks of European travel I had to use cash once, for a taxi in Switzerland, requiring me to go to an actual ATM and get out weird "Swiss Francs". I doubt that cab driver will get much business if he continues insisting on cash

    For individuals, the hassle of different currencies has gone (apart from the FOREX rate obvs)

    I'm not sure we've yet understood the many ramifications of the End of Cash
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,314
    Leon said:

    I don't know who this "Sean" guy he is but he sounds amazing. Witty, wise and provocative. I for one wish he'd post a lot more
    He is overrated Leon, honestly. :smiley:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    TimT said:

    And, in fact, the UN does have such powers over most nations. Chapter 7 UNSCRs are binding on all Member States. The UK and other P5 have the power of veto within the Council, so I suppose it is true, but only with the proviso 'over the UK/French/Russian/Chinese/US'.
    In practise the UN is fairly toothless - unless you are way, way down the international pecking order.

    - Iraq invades Kuwait. UN sanctions war.
    - If China invades Taiwan, there may or may not be a resolution (which will be vetoed by China) that may or may not say "play nice, children, please".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    I would actually say that a lot of fundamental research needed to be done. A crash program would have just... crashed into the obstacles faster. There is a fair amount of combined fundamental science and engineering to be worked out before you get a break-even tomak.

    To get one that actually generates net power is even more work.

    I am not convinced that throwing money at it will increase the rate of progress.
    The new German W-7X stellarator is an example. The use of weird configurations to keep plasma more stable than in Tokamaks has been known for decades. Designing one has required massive amounts of computer processing power.

    (All AFAICR; might be wrong...)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,675



    Brenda from Bristol would not be happy with a 2022 election. Two years early with a majority of 80 - you've got to be kidding!

    BJ would need a jolly good excuse to go in 2022, and even if he found/invented one it could easily backfire.


    Other than needing a mandate to go war with France there's not going to be an election in 2022 so Brenda's safe. ;)

    2023 is the year methinks. June 1st/June 8th or possibly October 5th look strong possibilities.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,314

    Given the site's anthing or one but Noris stance, I am interested to speculate how an appalling poll for Labour might be spun on a future thread as somehow good for Starmer.

    Anyone care what form this premise might be expounded ? I suspect the poll will be ignored.

    You seemed to have moved on from complaining about all the biased articles to the bias in ones that haven't been written yet.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Leon said:

    I've experienced this on recent trips to the continent. Contactless payment is now ubiquitous, so you don't really notice that you are using a different currency. It is frictionless

    In four weeks of European travel I had to use cash once, for a taxi in Switzerland, requiring me to go to an actual ATM and get out weird "Swiss Francs". I doubt that cab driver will get much business if he continues insisting on cash

    For individuals, the hassle of different currencies has gone (apart from the FOREX rate obvs)

    I'm not sure we've yet understood the many ramifications of the End of Cash
    One ramification will be people switching to the new banks most of who don't add a 3% charge on foreign transactions.

    I use First Direct while in the UK. Once I'm heading abroad money is shifted to Revolut, Monzo and Starling (all three as I've had problems in the past with them in weird places).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Scotland Act seems to think otherwise; s 29 says what it *cannot* do and implies that anything else, it can.

    What it can't do is things that relate to reserved matters. The union is a reserved matter and it seems to me a referendum relates to the Union whether it's advisory or not. But so what? S 29 says an Act is "not law" if it relates to a reserved matter, it doesn't say it's otherwise wrong or ultra vires. So if the Parliament votes for a referendum and holds one, there's no sanction.
    Injunction. Ultimately 'Misconduct in public office'. This won't fly.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021

    Given the site's anthing or one but Noris stance, I am interested to speculate how an appalling poll for Labour might be spun on a future thread as somehow good for Starmer.

    Anyone care what form this premise might be expounded ? I suspect the poll will be ignored.

    The only pollster that has Sir Keir ahead in either gross positive, or net satisfaction, leader ratings is Opinium, who have him trailing on GP but leading on NS, and their NS seem to be the only leader ratings that are used.

    Here are the 8 pollsters on wiki's leadership approval page, with their last GP and NS scores - Boris leads by 9.8 GP and 5.3 Net on average



  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Leon said:

    I've experienced this on recent trips to the continent. Contactless payment is now ubiquitous, so you don't really notice that you are using a different currency. It is frictionless

    In four weeks of European travel I had to use cash once, for a taxi in Switzerland, requiring me to go to an actual ATM and get out weird "Swiss Francs". I doubt that cab driver will get much business if he continues insisting on cash

    For individuals, the hassle of different currencies has gone (apart from the FOREX rate obvs)

    I'm not sure we've yet understood the many ramifications of the End of Cash
    I’ve been to Sweden several times in recent years since joining a Swedish-based company. I have never seen, let alone touched, a Swedish kroner note or coin.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    In practise the UN is fairly toothless - unless you are way, way down the international pecking order.

    - Iraq invades Kuwait. UN sanctions war.
    - If China invades Taiwan, there may or may not be a resolution (which will be vetoed by China) that may or may not say "play nice, children, please".
    Indeed, but I was thinking more of UNSCR 1540 (2004), which is not an enforcement action a la Iraq, but imposes a vast array of legal and enforcement requirements upon national governments pertaining to the actions of their citizens and all those private and legal entities operating in territories under their jurisdiction and control as they relate to terrorism.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    TimT said:

    My own disillusionment with the EU began when I realized that the principle of subsidiarity was not really respected at all and would never be as it is at odds with the human nature of (EC) bureaucrats. Subsidiarity was and is the way to square the circle on national vs EU sovereignty. Without it, I go for national sovereignty.
    Too too true

    I remember when "subsidiarity" was paraded before us, as the answer to the EU's Federalising urges, and a salve for British euroscepticism. What a load of nonsense. The strange clumsiness of the word (derived from Catholic doctrine?) was a clue.

    I cannot think of a single significant example of "subsidiarity" in operation. I cannot think of one notable power that the EU handed back to member states

    British EU membership was always a rearguard action against Ever Closer Union, and generally a series of defeats, with the odd minor stalemate

    The EU is still going the same road, so Brexit in some form would have happened eventually. The later we left it, the more painful it was going to be

    We should have quasi Brexited in the 1990s, after a referendum on Maastricht or Lisbon. Much less traumatic. Some kind of semi detachment within the Single Market would have been the likely result. But the europhiles knew best.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    The new German W-7X stellarator is an example. The use of weird configurations to keep plasma more stable than in Tokamaks has been known for decades. Designing one has required massive amounts of computer processing power.

    (All AFAICR; might be wrong...)
    We are still a few decades away from being able to simulate high intensity magnetic fields and their reactions with particles to the point that we can design this stuff in a computer and see if it works.

    I remember a very good thread on this on the Polywell discussion board - someone worked out how many decades it would take to get a result from a simulation at a sufficient resolution.

    It was one of the those problems where the answer was to wait for more compute power, since super computers are getting faster at such a rate that before your slow simulation was done, the latest super would run it for you in 10 minutes....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    rpjs said:

    Except that under the Localism Act local authorities in England can apply for and be granted a general power of competence that allows them to spend public funds on any purpose that they deem beneficial to their community that is not specifically forbidden by law.

    Northern Ireland and Wales have enacted similar provisions for their local authorities. It does not make sense that the devolved administrations would have the power to grant such general power of competence to their lower tiers but not possess it themselves.
    All the powers you describe are ultimately creations of statute. If the Scottish parliament has a power to allow Argyll and Bute to put up public telescopes that does not give it the power to act ultra vires itself.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited October 2021
    rpjs said:

    I’ve been to Sweden several times in recent years since joining a Swedish-based company. I have never seen, let alone touched, a Swedish kroner note or coin.
    Two years ago when in Bulgaria weekly I used to get £100 or so out of a cash point at Sofia airport every 6 weeks or so.

    It was what I needed to pay for the taxi from there to the hotel for that period of time. Beyond that the only cash I spent was the occasional drink from the vending machine.

    And remember this is Bulgaria which is way make backward than anywhere else and where you did need cash for taxis as my colleague complained about weekly and usually then needed to borrow cash off me.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    The Orwell article on nationalism that was shared earlier was *really* excellent. Everybody on here should read it - and probably reflect on how we're all guilty of some of the logical fallacies he identifies.

    Have you read

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/

    Orwell's problem, I'm afraid, is he just wasn't very bright. Lots of what he says is true, but in that essay he fails to detect in himself the exact thing he is on about. GKC bad, because Orwell is not a Catholic; Celtic nationalism bad but bloody hell look at this: "One symptom of it is the delusion that Eire, Scotland or even Wales could preserve its independence unaided and owes nothing to British protection." Scott Alexander at least recognises his own liability to outgroupism.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    No you're confusing it I'm afraid. The Scotland Act (as amended) specifies what can't be done, rather than what is allowed. As such anything not forbidden is permitted applies.

    There is an argument that an independence referendum is forbidden as it relates to the union [which is reserved and thus forbidden] but there is a counter-argument that as per Miller a referendum is purely advisory and therefore does not relate to the union. Sounds perverse, but could be right legally.
    I never understood all the criticism of the SC in its judgement by the Leave side when the Article 50 ruling just made clear that any government can’t remove the rights of its citizens without MPs voting on it . The disgraceful treatment of the original 3 judges in the lower court by the right wing press totally ignored that if the government had won the case in future a minister could use Henry Vlll powers to remove citizens rights at the stroke of a pen . The Enemies of the People disgusting headline was utterly despicable given the judges in effect should have been lauded for protecting the same people !
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    Leon said:

    I've experienced this on recent trips to the continent. Contactless payment is now ubiquitous, so you don't really notice that you are using a different currency. It is frictionless

    In four weeks of European travel I had to use cash once, for a taxi in Switzerland, requiring me to go to an actual ATM and get out weird "Swiss Francs". I doubt that cab driver will get much business if he continues insisting on cash

    For individuals, the hassle of different currencies has gone (apart from the FOREX rate obvs)

    I'm not sure we've yet understood the many ramifications of the End of Cash
    The issue is not immediate transactions - that is pretty much frictionless now.

    The problem is you set a price on day X, and are scheduled to pay on day Y. At that point you start purchasing swaps...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    TimT said:

    My own disillusionment with the EU began when I realized that the principle of subsidiarity was not really respected at all and would never be as it is at odds with the human nature of (EC) bureaucrats. Subsidiarity was and is the way to square the circle on national vs EU sovereignty. Without it, I go for national sovereignty.
    "Subsidiarity" is indeed derived from Catholic theology


    "The development of the concept of subsidiarity has roots in the natural law philosophy of Thomas Aquinas, and was mediated by the social scientific theories of Luigi Taparelli, SJ, in his 1840–43 natural law treatise on the human person in society.[2] In that work, Taparelli established the criteria of just social order, which he referred to as "hypotactical right" and which came to be termed subsidiarity following German influences.[3]

    "The term subsidiarity as employed in Catholic social thought was inspired by the teaching of Wilhelm Emmanuel von Ketteler, who served as Bishop of Mainz in the mid- to late 19th century.[4] It is most well-known, however, from its subsequent incorporation into Pope Pius XI’s encyclical Quadragesimo anno. "

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidiarity_(Catholicism)


    Just another way the EU was essentially alien to us
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    I don't know who this "Sean" guy he is but he sounds amazing. Witty, wise and provocative. I for one wish he'd post a lot more
    I seek to emulate his idiosyncratic style exactly to keep the feeling of his presence alive. I leave it to others to say how well I've managed, but I think it's pretty close.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Same as trading with any market anywhere in the world. Want access for your products? You have to be compliant with their laws.
    The point of the single market is that a product compliant for the domestic German market is compliant for every other country in the single market.

    Of course if we want to export to Germany we have to comply with German laws, but the point at issue is whether German products are free to enter the British market while compliant only with German laws, or if there might be British laws that they have to be compliant with.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited October 2021

    The issue is not immediate transactions - that is pretty much frictionless now.

    The problem is you set a price on day X, and are scheduled to pay on day Y. At that point you start purchasing swaps...
    The current bane of my life is VAT payments where the exchange rate has moved between the day of invoice and the day of payment.

    AI systems runs correctly and then just quits screaming whenever it encounters such an example (which it does daily).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    IshmaelZ said:

    Have you read

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/

    Orwell's problem, I'm afraid, is he just wasn't very bright. Lots of what he says is true, but in that essay he fails to detect in himself the exact thing he is on about. GKC bad, because Orwell is not a Catholic; Celtic nationalism bad but bloody hell look at this: "One symptom of it is the delusion that Eire, Scotland or even Wales could preserve its independence unaided and owes nothing to British protection." Scott Alexander at least recognises his own liability to outgroupism.
    First the Beatles are crap, now Orwell is "not very bright"?

  • Leon said:

    Too too true

    I remember when "subsidiarity" was paraded before us, as the answer to the EU's Federalising urges, and a salve for British euroscepticism. What a load of nonsense. The strange clumsiness of the word (derived from Catholic doctrine?) was a clue.

    I cannot think of a single significant example of "subsidiarity" in operation. I cannot think of one notable power that the EU handed back to member states

    British EU membership was always a rearguard action against Ever Closer Union, and generally a series of defeats, with the odd minor stalemate

    The EU is still going the same road, so Brexit in some form would have happened eventually. The later we left it, the more painful it was going to be

    We should have quasi Brexited in the 1990s, after a referendum on Maastricht or Lisbon. Much less traumatic. Some kind of semi detachment within the Single Market would have been the likely result. But the europhiles knew best.....
    "You can't buck the market"

    The voters didn't want Maastricht.
    The voters didn't want Lisbon.

    Eventually the voters took back control.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    edited October 2021
    nico679 said:

    I never understood all the criticism of the SC in its judgement by the Leave side when the Article 50 ruling just made clear that any government can’t remove the rights of its citizens without MPs voting on it . The disgraceful treatment of the original 3 judges in the lower court by the right wing press totally ignored that if the government had won the case in future a minister could use Henry Vlll powers to remove citizens rights at the stroke of a pen . The Enemies of the People disgusting headline was utterly despicable given the judges in effect should have been lauded for protecting the same people !
    It was a dispiriting time. I was still on the leave train at the time, and it seemed completely appropriate that parliament was sovereign on that matter. And while parliament did then spend years tying itself in knots with some seeking to reverse the whole business one way or another, as the vote on Article 50 showed there was no danger to that approach as it passed overwhelmingly.

    There was some similar fudged thinking with performative outrage about the Queen acceding to Boris's prorogation request. I was to believe people outraged about her doing it as he asked for it actually wanted her to have the real (not just theoretical) ability to reject the wishes of the PM and/or Parliament?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    "Subsidiarity" is indeed derived from Catholic theology


    "The development of the concept of subsidiarity has roots in the natural law philosophy of Thomas Aquinas, and was mediated by the social scientific theories of Luigi Taparelli, SJ, in his 1840–43 natural law treatise on the human person in society.[2] In that work, Taparelli established the criteria of just social order, which he referred to as "hypotactical right" and which came to be termed subsidiarity following German influences.[3]

    "The term subsidiarity as employed in Catholic social thought was inspired by the teaching of Wilhelm Emmanuel von Ketteler, who served as Bishop of Mainz in the mid- to late 19th century.[4] It is most well-known, however, from its subsequent incorporation into Pope Pius XI’s encyclical Quadragesimo anno. "

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidiarity_(Catholicism)


    Just another way the EU was essentially alien to us
    Forcing Catholicism on an essentially Protestant country. No wonder ... :hushed:
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,928
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    First the Beatles are crap, now Orwell is "not very bright"?

    Wait till you hear what he says about The Monkees and Jeffrey Archer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    eek said:

    Two years ago when in Bulgaria weekly I used to get £100 or so out of a cash point at Sofia airport every 6 weeks or so.

    It was what I needed to pay for the taxi from there to the hotel for that period of time. Beyond that the only money I spent was the occasional drink from the vending machine.
    Four unexpected consequences of the End of Cash:

    1 It gets much harder to evade or cheat the taxman. My local Moldovan car wash is still clinging on to cash (I wonder why) but the others are reluctantly succumbing to the contactless machine

    2 Tipping. We've discussed this before. But what will happen to tipping in a tipping mad culture like, say, the USA? If no one carries dollar bills barkeepers will have to be given a proper wage. Finally

    3 Homeless people. They are already going crazy. Begging doesn't work any more

    4. Street performers. The end of busking
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:

    Injunction. Ultimately 'Misconduct in public office'. This won't fly.

    Well, OK, if you think the Scotland Act confers specific and limited vires which the Parliament cannot act ultra where does it do that? Contrast the lga 1972 which exhaustively lists the functions of a la.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    algarkirk said:

    All the powers you describe are ultimately creations of statute. If the Scottish parliament has a power to allow Argyll and Bute to put up public telescopes that does not give it the power to act ultra vires itself.

    Agreed, but I am arguing with the position that Scotland’s powers fall into the “everything is permitted that is not specifically forbidden” category, rather than the reverse which indeed was the case for all bodies in the UK below Parliament prior to the early part of this century.

    I found a Parliamentary briefing paper that describes the general power of competence broadly as allowing local authorities to do “anything an individual can do”. As an individual I can ask anyone whether Scotland should be an independent state, so why can’t the Scottish government?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    The point of the single market is that a product compliant for the domestic German market is compliant for every other country in the single market.

    Of course if we want to export to Germany we have to comply with German laws, but the point at issue is whether German products are free to enter the British market while compliant only with German laws, or if there might be British laws that they have to be compliant with.
    Except that these days, almost all free trade agreements prohibit using product standards as non-tariff barriers, *and* increasingly everyone's local standards bodies just rewrite those from the ISO.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    The UK COVID dashboard has updated its vaccine uptake graphic, but in a way that makes it inherently understate the rate of uptake in those eligible, in that the denominator is now the 12+ population, whereas not all 12-16 year-olds are eligible.

    It is almost as though someone is intent on keeping uptake figures low - i.e. <90% for 1 dose and <80% for double-dosed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,912
    rcs1000 said:

    So true.

    The writer of Animal Farm, of 1984, of The Road to Wigan Pier, of Down & Out in London and Paris, of Homage to Catalonia, was clearly a borderline idiot.

    I doubt he could even tie his own shoelaces.
    1984 is arguably the most influential novel of all time. It actually gets more profound as the decades pass, and the concepts it conjured become more resonant. "Thoughtcrime" - who knew it would become a an actual thing: in the West
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Leon said:

    Four unexpected consequences of the End of Cash:

    1 It gets much harder to evade or cheat the taxman. My local Moldovan car wash is still clinging on to cash (I wonder why) but the others are reluctantly succumbing to the contactless machine

    2 Tipping. We've discussed this before. But what will happen to tipping in a tipping mad culture like, say, the USA? If no one carries dollar bills barkeepers will have to be given a proper wage. Finally

    3 Homeless people. They are already going crazy. Begging doesn't work any more

    4. Street performers. The end of busking
    I rarely carry cash here in the US, but when I do it’s because I expect to be tipping. That said, almost all tipping contexts here can be added to the card charge, but I prefer to tip in cash to ensure the recipient gets it.

    As to busking, my wife teaches at a language school and she was told by her Chinese students that buskers in China show QR codes that you scan and tip them through.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    edited October 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Different currencies don't introduce that much red tape. Indeed, these days - with contactless payments replacing cash, and with incredibly low cost transfers - it's pretty negligible.

    Where firms have have issues (historically) is when they order from a company in country X, and then that country's currency appreciated, and what looked like a great deal now looks pretty awful. And while this is rarely a problem for big companies, that have treasury departments that can do hedging, it is an issue for smaller firms. Indeed, if I wasn't really busy, it would be very interesting to look at creating a business that did easy hedging for smaller companies.

    I would be very interested to know if the Eurozone did boost inter-Eurozone trade. Did the single currency mean that Germans were more likely to buy from Italians and Spaniards from the Dutch?
    Imagine there's only one currency. It isn't hard to do. No need for hedging or conversion. No FX desks too. Imagine all the traders doing something more worthwhile, you oo oo oo oo, you may say I'm a ...

    Interesting question as to whether the single currency boosted trade and wealth creation in the EZ. If it didn't I see little point in it unless one believes it was a devious tool to advance a Federal Europe.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Leon said:

    Four unexpected consequences of the End of Cash:

    1 It gets much harder to evade or cheat the taxman. My local Moldovan car wash is still clinging on to cash (I wonder why) but the others are reluctantly succumbing to the contactless machine

    2 Tipping. We've discussed this before. But what will happen to tipping in a tipping mad culture like, say, the USA? If no one carries dollar bills barkeepers will have to be given a proper wage. Finally

    3 Homeless people. They are already going crazy. Begging doesn't work any more

    4. Street performers. The end of busking
    1) taxi drivers saw their pay increase by more than any other sector of the economy since 2010 (guess why)
    4) A lot of buskers have card machines set at a small amount, it's not perfect but better than nothing.
This discussion has been closed.