Starmer up sharply to become favourite in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Starmer up sharply to become favourite in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Although there has been no polling uplift for LAB since Starmer’s big speech on Wednesday those betting on who will be next PM have edged back to Starmer and he is now clear favourite in the “Next PM” betting.
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Bit harsh. The LotO has to speak to people in homes around the country whoever it is.
Generally, the news do a fair job to all leaders by showing the middle of the road stuff on the news, but only geeks like us watch the whole thing.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election.
Starmer to lead Labour.
The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
» show previous quotes
So people are free to come here without limit if we concrete all over the green belt and most of the English countryside to build all the extra homes for them. A deeply unpopular proposal (and most people don't live within easy reach of AONB and National Parks, especially in London and the Home Counties
Anabob replied:
Back to GCSE Geography class for you!
How about the South Downs, New Forest, Dedham Vale, Broads, Surrey Hills, North Wessex Downs, High Weald, Chilterns, Cotswolds... I mean these are just of the top of my head!
(P.S. I absolutely agree with you about the green belt however!)
TIA
Asking FAF.
Obvs.
While Labour needs to gain 124 seats at the next general election to win an overall majority, Starmer only needs to gain about 55 Tory seats to become PM if the SNP and LDs and PC and SDLP and Alliance and Greens give him confidence and supply.
Of course if the SNP and LDs pick up some Tory seats that 55 seat target is even lower for Starmer
However, I think it's also pretty unlikely that (in that scenario) Johnson ran to 2028.
I blame the voltage fluctuations myself.
Glad we agree on the green belt though
Apple's digital wallet Apple Pay will pay whatever amount is demanded of it, without authorization, if configured for transit mode with a Visa card, and exposed to a hostile contactless reader.
Boffins at the University of Birmingham and the University of Surrey in England have managed to find a way to remove the contactless payment limit on iPhones with Apple Pay and Visa cards if "Express Transit" mode has been enabled.
https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/30/apple_pay_contactless_visa_fraud/
Angus Robertson, SNP 7/2
Kate Forbes, SNP 9/2
John Swinney, SNP 8/1
Humza Yousaf, SNP 12/1
Anas Sarwar, Lab 25/2
Joanna Cherry, SNP 29/2
Keith Brown, SNP 31/2
Douglas Ross, Con 18/1
…
Alex Cole-Hamilton, LD 39/1
Everyone knows it is the variations in fluoridation of the water.
CRM 114 Discriminator - set to "OPE"
One is that Bozza's next campaign is overconfident and bombs as badly as May did in 2017.
Next, things go so wrong for the government that being Boris's successor becomes a poisoned chalice that nobody sensible wants. That sort of kept Major in place between '95 and '97. The flaw with that is that I don't see BoJo having the sense of duty to stay on once everyone starts being nasty to him.
Third is that the equal pulls of Sunak and Truss trying to depose him (sorry, "friends of Sunak and Truss") create a strange equilibrium that stops the Bozzmeister falling.
All possible, I guess. But not 25% possible.
And there's really only one "bad" Radiohead album - Pablo Honey. And that's not actually bad, just immature.
You then have two "middling" Radiohead albums - The Bends and Hail to the Thief. Both have their moments, but both do not reach the heights of some other albums.
Then there are the "great, but not the greatest" albums - The King of Limbs, Amnesiac, A Moon Shaped Pool. Some really cracking songs on those albums: Present Tense, Lotus Flower, and I Might Be Wrong being particularly great examples.
And then you have the Holy Trio: OK Computer, Kid A and In Rainbows. I am particularly fond of the last of these, but you can make a case for any of them to be Radiohead's GOAT.
My faves from those: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbWBRnDK_AE, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXl0F9oF92E, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uYWYWPc9HU, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfQD1QiQ9o4
The Ministry of Defence has published a data strategy that calls on the British armed forces to make better use of its "enduring strategic asset" – by spying on social media and dobbing in dissenters to local councils.
In a move bound to fuel tinfoil hat-wearing conspiracy theorists, the MoD's Data Strategy for Defence document published this week says the military ought to be carrying out "Automated scanning of social media platforms" to detect "change in population sentiment."
"Decision making is enhanced by local surveillance of groups of interest," notes the strategy document, adding that spying on irritated citizens' Facebook rants helps "local authorities" impose "heightened readiness measures".
Nowhere does the document explain why a strategy paper has gone so far off the beaten track that it promotes collecting data the MoD doesn't have and using it for decidedly non-military purposes.
https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/30/mod_data_strategy_social_media_surveillance/
MoD paper at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/data-strategy-for-defence/data-strategy-for-defence
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-infection-rate-global-comparison-johns-hopkins-who-b958154.html
Maybe it was balancing out until the 90s, but our population has grown by over 10 million within a generation and that wasn't slowing down. Now as I've said repeatedly I don't care if we have population growth so long as we have the construction to match it, but we never did which is why house price to earnings ratio when from 3.5x in 2003 before Eastern accession to ~6-7x just a few years later.
Do you think its fair to link the concepts of free movement with free construction? If we aren't going to have one, how can we justify the other?
I'll tell my "friend".
*sticks In Rainbows on Amazon Music as am working*
Edit: *takes off, sadly, give 'em enough rope*
Edit II: after Tommy Gun, obvs.
Always amuses my foreign friends and colleagues the head of UK Statistics Authority can publicly chastise the PM downwards for misusing official stats.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1443932852123484169
The UK is still doing a very high rate of tests per head of population, compared with most other countries.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand-map?tab=table
As Donald Trump observed, the more you test, the more you find.
25% may be a little high as Johnson could go by choice or coup, but I think not. There is a long way to the next GE, so probably fair value at present. It might even work as a trading bet as the GE gets closer.
EDIT: To be fair, I do it because it's easier to say - three syllables as opposed to five.
Plus, I had my second dose in March and they ensuring a six month gap between the second and booster jabs.
It doesn't take a vast amount of tests, or a vast amount of money to do such a survey. And, using established, standard techniques to ensure the samples are balanced, it can give you an accurate (scientifically speaking) estimate of the actual infection levels.
Anyone know why?
What do these other countries mean they won't let us in???
First track (looks: 15 Step) feels like it's been on for 15 years.
Bye all!
This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity.
Not all countries have those facilities/requirements?
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
5h
We've now reached the point where the public are being advised to flag down buses to protect themselves from police officers. And the head of the Metropolitan Police remains in post. How does anyone in authority seriously think this is a sustainable position.
UK (pop 68m)
Cases: +36,480
Deaths: +137
Romania (pop 19m)
Cases: +12,032
Deaths: +176
Look at that steep climb following EU expansion. Which predated interest rate cuts a few years later.
https://bbc.in/3kZ6mAD https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1443929971161018370/video/1
Philip Collins
@PhilipJCollins1
I always love it when Tories finally wake up to problems we've known about for ever and then blithely assume they'll fix them in no time. Amazing naivete.
Mass testing for a virus we're vaccinated against is beyond ridiculous now. Complete waste of money, its time to stop it and get on with our lives.
It is pretty inevitable that the work by euro civil servants being onshored would mean that we need more here. That's even before we start new customs staff etc.
Nearly as much as the inconsistency of St. James' Park, St James Park, and St James's Park.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_James'_Park
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_James_Park_(Exeter)
https://www.royalparks.org.uk/parks/st-jamess-park
All they are doing is testing a sample of the population. Then using standard techniques (familiar from opinion polling, for example) to correct the results to match to the population.
There is no reason that the stats/healthcare authorities in other countries can't do the same thing.
It's not that complex or expensive.
Question - will we be able to "get on with our lives" as a pariah nation where we need to quarantine before being allowed into other nations? Our "high risk" / "extremely high risk" status will become a ball-ache pretty quickly if most of the rest of the world has squashed Covid and we haven't.
And also, what mood exactly do you have to be in to appreciate In Rainbows to the maximum?
And that undercover bus inspectors would pull up a bus driver if he/she did it in front of them (the inspector) and pull them off the job then and there for disciplinary proceedings.
And if you look at the monthly data that verifies it too.
He's doubled vaxxed and symptomless so probably no USA Supreme Court hilarity incoming
Yes we can get on with our lives. "Squashing" Covid is a pipe-dream unless you really mean "stop testing for Covid and declare it squashed".
He may not be outwardly exciting but I saw something yesterday that I hadn't seen before. He has a personality that is engaging and he isn't smug. A nice contrast to Corbyn. He also seemed to me to be honest which is something no one could accuse Johnson of being. The downside is that he's a little bit Tory but nobody's perfect?
Johnson by contrast is becoming more untrustworthy as each day passes. Brexit is disintegrating. People are experiencing for themselves the damage it's causing and it's getting worse. (I myself got a letter yesterday cancelling something '....because of Brexit').
.......and as luck would have it all the architects are there together and in plain sight. They haven't even got the fig leaf of Dominic Cummings.
Either way, worrying.
The UK started by following the pre planed pandemic response, which included isolating the old/venerable until the young/heathy had reached 'heard immunity'. As part of that random testing of the overall public to determine how widespread the virus was and long till heard immunity was priority, where as testing every signal possible cases was not. so the ONS started to do the servery.
In most other places, priority was placed on attempting to find every signal possible cases.
I don't know if its irony but because the government did not have enough testing in March/April/may and was criticised a lot for it, they have since throne recourses at testing, for all the good it has done us.
93.6% in England
91.2% in Wales
91.9% in Northern Ireland
93.3% in Scotland
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies
Might have to wait a few weeks until this all blows over.
Just shows how out of touch whoever wrote it is, probably not used a bus in the last decade yet refers to them casually over something serious.
The suggestion on here of allowing the arrested to whatsapp a photo of the warrant card makes much more sense.
This is because every statistician around the world has realised that the case numbers are, in large measure, not comparable international since the testing levels vary so widely.
Hospitalisations and deaths are used to judge the state of affairs between developed nations.
Which is why the Trumpian scumbags were trying to fiddle with those. Yes, Florida, I am looking at you. As a start....
Wanting Covid to be over and saying so domestically is one thing. Covid really being over and other countries being willing to accept our pretence is another. We could be working harder to get more people vaccinated but won't. Others will.