Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
I think that's a genuine known unknown ATM. Will the desire to have a centre left alliance which gets Tories out of government trump the problem. And a real problem it is: the UK will have voted for unionist parties overwhelmingly, and Scotland not. Both would have a mandate. Both would face potential disaster if the issue allowed the Tories back in.
Not just Scotland. One also needs to factor in NI. What if they vote a non-Unionist, pro-referendum majority of MPs?
AFAICS Wales is less likely to do that - but who knows?
That would require SF and the SDLP to win a majority of NI seats, even the Alliance oppose a border poll now as do the UUP, DUP and TUV of course.
There is zero chance of a Plaid majority in Wales
But the Alliance view is that the situation is under advisement and they are prepared to change their minds. So they can't be counted on in the medium to long term, though your 'now' is quite correct.
The Alliance's only seat, North Down, leans Unionist and was UUP so they are not going to push for one anytime soon.
In any case the UUP is more likely to gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone at the next election from SF than any other seats changing hands in NI under FPTP
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
And very short-lived.
Yes, probably, and either way.
The psychology will be very different though. When TM-the-then-PM lost a majority in 2017, she actually increased the vote share compared with 2015. She didn't close that many seats and could cobble together something with the DUP.
For the Conservatives to be around 310 to 320 next time, they've got to lose quite a lot of seats and that will require a fair fall of vote share. They will look like big losers. And they won't find any coalition partners. Labour won't have won, but they'll look like winners.
Trying to hang on really won't be in the Conservatives' interests- they would get crushed six months later. Remember the hate at Brown's "squatting in No 10"? So much so that this is the exception to the "stay out of opposition if you possibly can" theory.
Hardly. Brown was accused of trying to Squat in No 10 when he had 258 seats, not 310-320
It was a silly accusation anyway. Until it was clear who would replace him, if anyone, he was doing nothing wrong staying put and seeing if a way could be found to stay on.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
And very short-lived.
Yes, probably, and either way.
The psychology will be very different though. When TM-the-then-PM lost a majority in 2017, she actually increased the vote share compared with 2015. She didn't close that many seats and could cobble together something with the DUP.
For the Conservatives to be around 310 to 320 next time, they've got to lose quite a lot of seats and that will require a fair fall of vote share. They will look like big losers. And they won't find any coalition partners. Labour won't have won, but they'll look like winners.
Trying to hang on really won't be in the Conservatives' interests- they would get crushed six months later. Remember the hate at Brown's "squatting in No 10"? So much so that this is the exception to the "stay out of opposition if you possibly can" theory.
Hardly. Brown was accused of trying to Squat in No 10 when he had 258 seats, not 310-320
It was a silly accusation anyway. Until it was clear who would replace him, if anyone, he was doing nothing wrong staying put and seeing if a way could be found to stay on.
Yes but trying to sign the UK up to a Eurozone bailout after he'd lost the election was very, very dodgy.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
Probably about right, and probably a punishment for the Conservatives fitting the crime.
A majority of about ten forces the Conservatives to keep going, but there is no way that Johnson, Sunak, Truss or any of them would have the skills to manage a micro-majority like that.
Quite amusing, if only one could watch from another country.
Previously it was known the incidents had been reported to police, but the fact officers knew his name but did not realise he was a serving Met policeman - which MailOnline can reveal today - will be seen as fresh evidence he could have been exposed as a sexual predator before he went on to kidnap, rape and strangle the 33-year-old.
How would the police know who Couzens was unless they knew him personally? Something very odd about this.
Probably about right, and probably a punishment for the Conservatives fitting the crime.
A majority of about ten forces the Conservatives to keep going, but there is no way that Johnson, Sunak, Truss or any of them would have the skills to manage a micro-majority like that.
Quite amusing, if only one could watch from another country.
Boris would probably get out a year or 2 after having won a second election even if more narrowly on that result and go off and make millions on the lecture circuit, and let Rishi be John Major 1993-1997 to his Thatcher.
Tory conference next week in Manchester. I get why Call Me Dave wanted to head to places like Manchester but why is Boris bothering? Either head for the red wall you've conquered or stay in the south where you are welcomed. Birmingham. Stoke. Teesside (where the main man Matt Vickers can feed the PM a parmo). Not Manchester.
It is better than holding it in Brighton to be fair
Historically there was an issue with sufficiently large conference facilities
North Sea link interconnectoy is now operational, which is 700 MW of power now, rising to 1.4 GW of hydro electricity from Norway by next March.
Will have some impact, but not enough to significantly reduce use of gas in power stations on its own, I think. Water elec storage for the national grid by keeping Norway's lakes fuller
When wind generation in the UK will be high but energy demand low, extra renewable power will be exported from the UK to Norway and conserve water in Norway's reservoirs, according to the statement. However, when demand is high in the UK but wind generation is low, hydropower from Norway will be imported.
Cordi O'Hara, President of National Grid Ventures, said that it is "an exciting day for National Grid and an important step as we look to diversify and decarbonise the UK's electricity supply".
"North Sea Link is a truly remarkable feat of engineering. We had to go through mountains, fjords and across the North Sea to make this happen. But as we look forward to COP26, Noth Sea Link is also a great example of two countries working together to maximise renewable energy resources for mutual benefit," he added.
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
The who whom thing really isn't difficult. Who corresponds to they, whom to them. So whoever they are, or whomever them are. Which sounds better?
. . . More than 365,000 other Albertans who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 also parked their vote elsewhere or didn't vote at all this time.
The Tories took a whopping 69 per cent of the vote in the province in the 2019 election. In last week's results they dropped 14 points, down to 55 per cent. . . .
The NDP and Liberals gained 7.5 per cent and almost two per cent, respectively. The People's Party of Canada jumped five per cent. The Maverick Party, in its first election, took just over one per cent of the popular vote. . . .
The Conservatives bled support to both sides of the political spectrum. The Liberals, NDP, PPC and Mavericks sucked up 263,000 more collective Alberta votes than in the previous election, while voter turnout fell nearly five percentage points, from 69.2 per cent to 64.5 per cent.
"It seems funny to think that there'd be a lot of Conservative/NDP switchers in Alberta, but it seems that there probably was some movement between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals," said Janet Brown of Janet Brown Opinion Research.
She pointed out that disenchanted Conservative voters are usually more likely to stay home than change their vote, but this election was different.
"[They] might have lost some votes on the far right to the Maverick Party or to the People's Party. I think the bigger concern for Erin O'Toole, though, is probably not the votes that went that way. It's the votes that went to centrist parties, despite his efforts to have a more centrist message."
The drop in support only cost Conservatives three additional seats this election — they hold 30 of 34 seats in Alberta, while the Liberals and NDP each have two — but analysts say it sends a message that what once worked for the party in Alberta may not work anymore.
He lost 0.6% nationally, the PPC were up 3% so most of his votes lost were to his right
Of course the article is restricted to just the Wild Rose Province.
Your point is nevertheless valid, in Alberta and elsewhere. But the point the story makes, is that votes lost by Tories to Dippers & Grits were at least as consequential to the outcome - esp re: seats won or lost - this election, and perhaps even more so in the not-so-distant future. Even as O'Toole did his semi-level best to present a moderate image & platform specifically targeted at these voters.
Probably about right, and probably a punishment for the Conservatives fitting the crime.
A majority of about ten forces the Conservatives to keep going, but there is no way that Johnson, Sunak, Truss or any of them would have the skills to manage a micro-majority like that.
Quite amusing, if only one could watch from another country.
Nonsense. If major and may could do it anybody can.
North Sea link interconnectoy is now operational, which is 700 MW of power now, rising to 1.4 GW of hydro electricity from Norway by next March.
Will have some impact, but not enough to significantly reduce use of gas in power stations on its own, I think. Water elec storage for the national grid by keeping Norway's lakes fuller
When wind generation in the UK will be high but energy demand low, extra renewable power will be exported from the UK to Norway and conserve water in Norway's reservoirs, according to the statement. However, when demand is high in the UK but wind generation is low, hydropower from Norway will be imported.
Cordi O'Hara, President of National Grid Ventures, said that it is "an exciting day for National Grid and an important step as we look to diversify and decarbonise the UK's electricity supply".
"North Sea Link is a truly remarkable feat of engineering. We had to go through mountains, fjords and across the North Sea to make this happen. But as we look forward to COP26, Noth Sea Link is also a great example of two countries working together to maximise renewable energy resources for mutual benefit," he added.
looks like 2% of our energy already this fine October evening
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
The who whom thing really isn't difficult. Who corresponds to they, whom to them. So whoever they are, or whomever them are. Witch sounds better?
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
The who whom thing really isn't difficult. Who corresponds to they, whom to them. So whoever they are, or whomever them are. Which sounds better?
Okay, so correct to "(whomever them are)"! Are you happy now?
EDIT - yet another example of spell-check (or is it spell-cheque? spell-czech?) leaving yet another quasi-innocent PBer in the linguistic lurch!
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
Probably about right, and probably a punishment for the Conservatives fitting the crime.
A majority of about ten forces the Conservatives to keep going, but there is no way that Johnson, Sunak, Truss or any of them would have the skills to manage a micro-majority like that.
Quite amusing, if only one could watch from another country.
Nonsense. If major and may could do it anybody can.
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
The who whom thing really isn't difficult. Who corresponds to they, whom to them. So whoever they are, or whomever them are. Which sounds better?
Okay, so correct to "(whomever them are)"! Are you happy now?
The UoW also believes the USA will endure 1,230,000 excess "C19" deaths by the end of 2021, making this pandemic twice as bad as Spanish flu, in the US
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week when Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
If 1.23 million Americans die of Covid by the end of 2021, that's 0.3% of the population
Romania is one of the worst. 170,000 excess deaths are predicted by end 2021, out of a population of 19 million. Almost one in a hundred Romanians will die
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
This write up of an abuse of power last year by two members of the Lancashire Police - https://barry-walsh.co.uk/lockdown-blues/ - is, though I say so myself, pretty prescient.
It shows that even having two police officers present is not going to help - if one misbehaves and the other stands by and does nothing.
Just seen a docu on C4 about overconsumption of sugary drinks (particularly Coke) in Mexico. Then right now it's the Bake-Off, just happened to be sponsored by... Ribena!!
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
I think Mandelbrot was the 'Dome Czar'.
I still have an unwrapped, untouched commemorative Dome tee shirt bought from the Millennium Dome souvenir shop. I went with a friend (got a free ticket!) and we both agreed the experience was so damnably shite we should buy something as a souvenir, in the hope that in decades to come these items would be valuable, as people remembered the embarrassing, world class mediocrity of it all
Sadly, people just want to forget. So the shirt sits in my cupboards, unsold and unloved
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
I think Mandelbrot was the 'Dome Czar'.
I still have an unwrapped, untouched commemorative Dome tee shirt bought from the Millennium Dome souvenir shop. I went with a friend (got a free ticket!) and we both agreed the experience was so damnably shite we should buy something as a souvenir, in the hope that in decades to come these items would be valuable, as people remembered the embarrassing, world class mediocrity of it all
Sadly, people just want to forget. So the shirt sits in my cupboards, unsold and unloved
Why don’t you wear it as an ironic retro statement
If 1.23 million Americans die of Covid by the end of 2021, that's 0.3% of the population
Romania is one of the worst. 170,000 excess deaths are predicted by end 2021, out of a population of 19 million. Almost one in a hundred Romanians will die
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
I think Mandelbrot was the 'Dome Czar'.
I still have an unwrapped, untouched commemorative Dome tee shirt bought from the Millennium Dome souvenir shop. I went with a friend (got a free ticket!) and we both agreed the experience was so damnably shite we should buy something as a souvenir, in the hope that in decades to come these items would be valuable, as people remembered the embarrassing, world class mediocrity of it all
Sadly, people just want to forget. So the shirt sits in my cupboards, unsold and unloved
You could wear it. You know, to keep warm. Like I wear my 2014 indyref T-shirts and my 2019 Cosmonauts echibition T-shirt and innumerable scientific conference T-shirts around the house and in the garden.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
I think Mandelbrot was the 'Dome Czar'.
Blair's former flatmate Lord Falconer was Minister for the Dome from 1998, taking over from Mandelson.
It was Heseltine's idea, ended up being a New Labour project so inevitably reflected that, even the Queen had to be dragged along on Millennium Eve when I am sure she would rather have been at Sandringham
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
I think Mandelbrot was the 'Dome Czar'.
I still have an unwrapped, untouched commemorative Dome tee shirt bought from the Millennium Dome souvenir shop. I went with a friend (got a free ticket!) and we both agreed the experience was so damnably shite we should buy something as a souvenir, in the hope that in decades to come these items would be valuable, as people remembered the embarrassing, world class mediocrity of it all
Sadly, people just want to forget. So the shirt sits in my cupboards, unsold and unloved
Why don’t you wear it as an ironic retro statement
It will be my gardening tee-shirt, when I finally retire to my little allotment in the sun. That's the plan
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
Russia has even fewer double jabbed than Romania, just 29%.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I had understood that the east was largely depopulated and was being filled by Chinese spreading northwards
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory majority is a lot better chance than 40%.
Firstly, this is a big seat lead to blow. I mean, it can happen (see 2007), but it's pretty hard to blow an 80 seat majority all in one go. (Plus, of course, the Conservatives probably have a small boost from the boundaries.)
Secondly, it's not like the opposition is kicking the governments butts. I mean, if Starmer was winning byelections from the Conservatives and recording consistent poll leads (like, say, Ed Milliband), then you'd reckon they were in with a chance. But they're not.
Thirdly, the last time we had the government flip (2010), local elections showed the government moribund. The same was true of 1997. This time, the government is gaining council seats.
Now, I agree that Covid has messed up the usual electoral cycle. That's reasonable. I also think Boris is still getting a Brexit "thank you" boost. And it's possible that both those things dissipate to the level where the Conservative majority is imperilled. But it doesn't seem that likely.
To me, the most likely outcome is that the Conservatives lose a little bit of share, and there's a little bit more tactical voting, and the SNP gain some seats, and the Conservatives drop to a 30 or 40 seat majority. But I'm not seeing the seachange necessary for Starmer to end up in Number 10.
A completely reasonable argument with which I don't agree.
With the number of unknowns between now and an election, and old friends lurking like inflation (especially), there are no reasons for significantly differentiating between a Tory majority (325/6+) seats and the other outcome (325/4-) seats.
All it takes is Lab to take 35 seats, LDs 10 and SNP 3 off the Tories. This is doable without Labour being lead by Pericles; it simply requires a bit of "time for a change" sentiment.
The Tories have no friends, so if they go below viability they won't survive. The centre left will not be forgiven if it missed the chance of government, despite the obvious questions.
Therefore the probabilities of a non Tory government and SKS PM are high. About 40%.
Probabilities and predictions are different things. I predict a Tory win next time. By how much I have no idea. Somewhere between 1 and 120 I should think.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
What do you think is the chance that Boris will blow the recover enough to hurt his Red Wall support?
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
In a week were Starmer did well (the Labour Party-not so much) and there has been chaos in the supply chain, Johnson's performance has been more self-assured than it has been for a while. The war on immigrant labour is an absolute winner as is the rhetoric around big, big pay rises for English workers without a downside. An added bonus is a remarkably high number of voters believe the fuel crisis is the work of the last Labour Government. That being the case, stagflation can surely be put at the door of Gordon Brown.
The mind boggles.
I blame the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury for the Millennium Dome.
No that was entirely the Blair Government, nothing to do with Michael Heseltine either. For those of us who went it really wasn't bad, but the fourth estate didn't like it, so a failure it was.
I went, it really WAS that bad. Mortifyingly awful
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
You see, your woke tat was Remainer culture.
I have to say that I quite enjoyed my day at the Dome. Highlights being the pair of legs, and the show. A long time ago, I can barely remember anymore details.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
I thought that one of the silver linings of the Plague was that it had decimated all need for and interest in suit wearing. Are you absolutely sure that it is necessary?
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
Ask your tailor if you can borrow a suit carrier?
*ducks*
Have got two proper suit carriers, neither of which are plane-friendly as huuuuge.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
No.
Gas production is now rising again (albeit slowly) and that will accelerate as drilling increases in the US.
US electricity demand is also now falling as temperatures drop.
And there are three or four big LNG projects that are coming on stream in the next four to six months.
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
Do you have any evidence for this impending metastasis or are you just trying to freak everyone out?
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
Buy a suit (or two) at your destination. OR spring for airfare for your tailor so they'll be on the spot to bespoke you!
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
Yet where are the highest global birthrates? Africa. So in gdp terms it may actually be global growth is less in the Far East than in Africa over the rest of the century, even if the Far East obviously gets a far higher gdp per capita than Africa.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
A unified Korea will sort it out though.
At this rate North Korea will simply invade the south, and advance unimpeded against the South Korean army of 13 soldiers, consisting of two ex-K Pop bands and the guy that did Gangnam Style
Drove to Banbury today with my full tank of fuel. Still about 250 miles left. Have to admit I was slightly startled by the number of service stations with no fuel according to motorway signing. Absolutely nothing like that in Scotland.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory majority is a lot better chance than 40%.
Firstly, this is a big seat lead to blow. I mean, it can happen (see 2007), but it's pretty hard to blow an 80 seat majority all in one go. (Plus, of course, the Conservatives probably have a small boost from the boundaries.)
Secondly, it's not like the opposition is kicking the governments butts. I mean, if Starmer was winning byelections from the Conservatives and recording consistent poll leads (like, say, Ed Milliband), then you'd reckon they were in with a chance. But they're not.
Thirdly, the last time we had the government flip (2010), local elections showed the government moribund. The same was true of 1997. This time, the government is gaining council seats.
Now, I agree that Covid has messed up the usual electoral cycle. That's reasonable. I also think Boris is still getting a Brexit "thank you" boost. And it's possible that both those things dissipate to the level where the Conservative majority is imperilled. But it doesn't seem that likely.
To me, the most likely outcome is that the Conservatives lose a little bit of share, and there's a little bit more tactical voting, and the SNP gain some seats, and the Conservatives drop to a 30 or 40 seat majority. But I'm not seeing the seachange necessary for Starmer to end up in Number 10.
A completely reasonable argument with which I don't agree.
With the number of unknowns between now and an election, and old friends lurking like inflation (especially), there are no reasons for significantly differentiating between a Tory majority (325/6+) seats and the other outcome (325/4-) seats.
All it takes is Lab to take 35 seats, LDs 10 and SNP 3 off the Tories. This is doable without Labour being lead by Pericles; it simply requires a bit of "time for a change" sentiment.
The Tories have no friends, so if they go below viability they won't survive. The centre left will not be forgiven if it missed the chance of government, despite the obvious questions.
Therefore the probabilities of a non Tory government and SKS PM are high. About 40%.
Probabilities and predictions are different things. I predict a Tory win next time. By how much I have no idea. Somewhere between 1 and 120 I should think.
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
Do you have any evidence for this impending metastasis or are you just trying to freak everyone out?
Asking for a bipolar friend
Absolutely none at all. I'm just reverting (momentarily) to the "assume the worst, because that's what usually happens" approach to these things.
In point of fact I'm feeling fairly optimistic that things might be a little rocky but we'll all be fine in the end.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
Ask your tailor if you can borrow a suit carrier?
*ducks*
Have got two proper suit carriers, neither of which are plane-friendly as huuuuge.
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
Nah. We have global warming. We will all be out in T shirts and shorts in mid December.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
A unified Korea will sort it out though.
At this rate North Korea will simply invade the south, and advance unimpeded against the South Korean army of 13 soldiers, consisting of two ex-K Pop bands and the guy that did Gangnam Style
...Merck (NYSE: MRK), known as MSD outside the United States and Canada, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics today announced that molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801), an investigational oral antiviral medicine, significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death at a planned interim analysis of the Phase 3 MOVe-OUT trial in at risk, non-hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. At the interim analysis, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%; 7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377); p=0.0012. Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo. At the recommendation of an independent Data Monitoring Committee and in consultation with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), recruitment into the study is being stopped early due to these positive results. Merck plans to submit an application for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. FDA as soon as possible based on these findings and plans to submit marketing applications to other regulatory bodies worldwide...
Indeed. The USA has ordered 10 million courses it appears, at a cost of $1.7 billion.
Merck says they will do a cheaper version for other markets.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
Is it though? This is a country which claims it is "full". They haven't lived 6 years in Yung He.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
I thought that one of the silver linings of the Plague was that it had decimated all need for and interest in suit wearing. Are you absolutely sure that it is necessary?
Am going to two trade expos in a week. At the first one I meet both clients for the first time. Nice suit definitely needed and frankly feels great actually having the use for one.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
A unified Korea will sort it out though.
At this rate North Korea will simply invade the south, and advance unimpeded against the South Korean army of 13 soldiers, consisting of two ex-K Pop bands and the guy that did Gangnam Style
North Korea is not vastly higher at 1.9 children per woman
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
This would be good news if the fall was not going to be dwarfed by the increase in population in Africa.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
Yet where are the highest global birthrates? Africa. So in gdp terms it may actually be global growth is less in the Far East than in Africa over the rest of the century, even if the Far East obviously gets a far higher gdp per capita than Africa
Even in Africa birth rates are beginning to drop, in some places very fast
The 21st century might be the century when the global population of humans begins to fall
With robots and automation, ultimately, that might not be a problem, indeed it could be a good thing
You only have to go to a country like Egypt - population 104,000,000 - to realise that they have simply too many people. Egypt's optimum population, given its size and the area of fertile land, should be about a third of that at most?
Cairo has gone from poor but busy city with some lush attractive areas and even nice parks and boulevards, to an absolute shit-hole, in my lifetime. Too Many People
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
No.
Gas production is now rising again (albeit slowly) and that will accelerate as drilling increases in the US.
US electricity demand is also now falling as temperatures drop.
And there are three or four big LNG projects that are coming on stream in the next four to six months.
OTOH are the Americans going to export to us? No. Are these amazing new projects going to magically bail us out before the Winter rolls up? No.
But as I just replied to @Leon, my previous remarks were a mere passing moment of catastrophism, and I imagine that everything will probably turn out fine in the end...
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
Buy a suit (or two) at your destination. OR spring for airfare for your tailor so they'll be on the spot to bespoke you!
Something yours truly has done in the past, is roll up a suit (jacket & pants separately) and then either get it pressed at destination OR just steam out the wrinkles (via the shower) in the bathroom.
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
I thought that one of the silver linings of the Plague was that it had decimated all need for and interest in suit wearing. Are you absolutely sure that it is necessary?
Am going to two trade expos in a week. At the first one I meet both clients for the first time. Nice suit definitely needed and frankly feels great actually having the use for one.
I have started wearing suits once again at work, dapper ties and proper shoes again.
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
Do you have any evidence for this impending metastasis or are you just trying to freak everyone out?
Asking for a bipolar friend
Absolutely none at all. I'm just reverting (momentarily) to the "assume the worst, because that's what usually happens" approach to these things.
In point of fact I'm feeling fairly optimistic that things might be a little rocky but we'll all be fine in the end.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
I appreciate that low birth rates have difficult issues around who creates the wealth and who looks after the old but on one level falling birth rates are surely a very good thing for the planet and therefore the future of the human race.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
A unified Korea will sort it out though.
At this rate North Korea will simply invade the south, and advance unimpeded against the South Korean army of 13 soldiers, consisting of two ex-K Pop bands and the guy that did Gangnam Style
I didn't say how Korea would unify!
You were recommending a book the other week that praised North Korea's economic success.
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
A unified Korea will sort it out though.
At this rate North Korea will simply invade the south, and advance unimpeded against the South Korean army of 13 soldiers, consisting of two ex-K Pop bands and the guy that did Gangnam Style
North Korea is not vastly higher at 1.9 children per woman
Surely that is a very transphobic form of measurement. Isn’t it?
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
I appreciate that low birth rates have difficult issues around who creates the wealth and who looks after the old but on one level falling birth rates are surely a very good thing for the planet and therefore the future of the human race.
Fewer humans is, indeed, probably a good thing (even for humans, certainly for the rest of the living planet)
The problem is adjusting, and also, how we cope with so many oldsters. We either need some new drugs that revive the crumblies and cure dementia, or we need a huge plague that simply wipes out 1bn people over 70
Watching reports of massive gas shortages and price spikes this Winter with some concern.
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
No.
Gas production is now rising again (albeit slowly) and that will accelerate as drilling increases in the US.
US electricity demand is also now falling as temperatures drop.
And there are three or four big LNG projects that are coming on stream in the next four to six months.
OTOH are the Americans going to export to us? No. Are these amazing new projects going to magically bail us out before the Winter rolls up? No.
But as I just replied to @Leon, my previous remarks were a mere passing moment of catastrophism, and I imagine that everything will probably turn out fine in the end...
The Uni of Washington has updated its Covid model, with handy tabs enabling you to toggle between Reported and Excess deaths
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
In a country with a fertility rate in 2018 estimated to be 1.6 born per woman, that level of death must be a worry. The latest numbers since then show the problem to have got worse:
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
I've recently been reading about the plunging birth rates in East Asia. They are extraordinary
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
Yet where are the highest global birthrates? Africa. So in gdp terms it may actually be global growth is less in the Far East than in Africa over the rest of the century, even if the Far East obviously gets a far higher gdp per capita than Africa
Even in Africa birth rates are beginning to drop, in some places very fast
The 21st century might be the century when the global population of humans begins to fall
With robots and automation, ultimately, that might not be a problem, indeed it could be a good thing
You only have to go to a country like Egypt - population 104,000,000 - to realise that they have simply too many people. Egypt's optimum population, given its size and the area of fertile land, should be about a third of that at most?
Cairo has gone from poor but busy city with some lush attractive areas and even nice parks and boulevards, to an absolute shit-hole, in my lifetime. Too Many People
Africa also has young religious populations who believe in big families and supporting their elderly.
There will still be a lot of poverty there as you say unless they advance technologically like the west and Far East which by itself reduces the need for more workers but the sheer scale of their population increase will see them also get a big rise in gdp
Evening all! Entirely off-topic, what is the best way to fly with a suit? I have found a couple of videos showing how to fold a jacket inside out and fol with the trousers into a suitcase, alternately a thin suit carrier as a carry-on sat on top of bags in the overhead bins. Never needed to fly a suit so curious if people have a tried and tested method.
Wear it.
Have certainly considered that. As I have to wear it for three days straight at the other end do I want a 4th day in it?
I thought that one of the silver linings of the Plague was that it had decimated all need for and interest in suit wearing. Are you absolutely sure that it is necessary?
Am going to two trade expos in a week. At the first one I meet both clients for the first time. Nice suit definitely needed and frankly feels great actually having the use for one.
I have started wearing suits once again at work, dapper ties and proper shoes again.
After wearing pajamas for a year it feels great.
Indeed. A combination of lockdown, middle age and a spell on happy pills means I didn't fit in previous suits so had to go shopping. Was great! All hail the waistcoat for disguising covid belly!
Comments
In any case the UUP is more likely to gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone at the next election from SF than any other seats changing hands in NI under FPTP
If everybody here is significantly worse off, he may be a goner.
A majority of about ten forces the Conservatives to keep going, but there is no way that Johnson, Sunak, Truss or any of them would have the skills to manage a micro-majority like that.
Quite amusing, if only one could watch from another country.
Previously it was known the incidents had been reported to police, but the fact officers knew his name but did not realise he was a serving Met policeman - which MailOnline can reveal today - will be seen as fresh evidence he could have been exposed as a sexual predator before he went on to kidnap, rape and strangle the 33-year-old.
How would the police know who Couzens was unless they knew him personally? Something very odd about this.
North Sea link interconnectoy is now operational, which is 700 MW of power now, rising to 1.4 GW of hydro electricity from Norway by next March.
Will have some impact, but not enough to significantly reduce use of gas in power stations on its own, I think. Water elec storage for the national grid by keeping Norway's lakes fuller
https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/01/north-sea-link-world-s-longest-undersea-power-cable-linking-norway-and-uk-is-now-operation
When wind generation in the UK will be high but energy demand low, extra renewable power will be exported from the UK to Norway and conserve water in Norway's reservoirs, according to the statement. However, when demand is high in the UK but wind generation is low, hydropower from Norway will be imported.
Cordi O'Hara, President of National Grid Ventures, said that it is "an exciting day for National Grid and an important step as we look to diversify and decarbonise the UK's electricity supply".
"North Sea Link is a truly remarkable feat of engineering. We had to go through mountains, fjords and across the North Sea to make this happen. But as we look forward to COP26, Noth Sea Link is also a great example of two countries working together to maximise renewable energy resources for mutual benefit," he added.
Yet London has roughly the fewest cases and deaths, as well
I guess so many here have had either the vax OR the pox there is nowhere for the virus to go? Which is a positive sign
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
> Last month the ISLE OF MAN conducted its 2021 general election for the House of Keys, the lower house of Tynwald the oldest parliament in the world, under writs issued by the Lord of Man - in this case a Woman, Her Majesty the Queen. IoMers voted to fill 24 seats, the top two from each of 12 constituencies being elected. A record number of women were elected, and four sitting ministers were defeated.
> On October 13 the island of ST. HELENA holds general election for 12 of 15 seats on the Legislative Council; the other 3 are held ex officio, chosen by at-large plurality, with Saints entitled to casting up to a dozen votes.
> On November 4 the FAULKLAND ISLANDS holds general election for 8 seats on the Legislative Assembly, divided between two constituencies, Stanley (5 seats) and Camp (3 seats). In both, Loyal Sheep-shaggers (and disloyal ones as well?) cast as many votes as their are seats, with the top 5 or 3 as the case may be winning election.
They say (whomever they are) that in the 21st century, the sun seldom rises on what's left of the British Empire!
Oh...
The government says nearly 200 military tanker personnel (100 of them drivers) will begin fuel deliveries from Monday
https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1444006361944178689
Red pants over a blue all in one
https://usesthis.com/interviews/simon.wistow/
Your point is nevertheless valid, in Alberta and elsewhere. But the point the story makes, is that votes lost by Tories to Dippers & Grits were at least as consequential to the outcome - esp re: seats won or lost - this election, and perhaps even more so in the not-so-distant future. Even as O'Toole did his semi-level best to present a moderate image & platform specifically targeted at these voters.
EDIT - yet another example of spell-check (or is it spell-cheque? spell-czech?) leaving yet another quasi-innocent PBer in the linguistic lurch!
The UK seems to be one of the few countries where these totals are similar, which I guess is to our credit, tho our totals are still pretty high. However if you look at actual excess deaths, nor reported deaths, in the rest of Europe, plenty of countries are close to us, and certainly higher per capita
Some of the data is quite startling (IF it is accurate). Russia has a reported death total of 208,000 on Worldometer. The UoW thinks the reported Russian C19 death total is closer to 450,000
And the UoW thinks the excess death rate, in Russia, is right now 1.2 MILLION
https://covid19.healthdata.org/russian-federation
The mind boggles.
Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
·
1h
Both the PM and Burnham on Marr sofa this sunday from Manc. Team Keir wont like that
Romania is one of the worst. 170,000 excess deaths are predicted by end 2021, out of a population of 19 million. Almost one in a hundred Romanians will die
A pretty nasty pandemic, probably worth finding out if it came from a lab. Or if it was engineered to be extra-virulent
And it cost, what, £600m? For that price we could have had our own Hubble Space Telescope, giving us deep insights into the universe
Instead we got a dirty great tent full of Woke Tat
I understand it is now a pretty good venue, however; and the area around is revived, from what it was
It shows that even having two police officers present is not going to help - if one misbehaves and the other stands by and does nothing.
Just seen a docu on C4 about overconsumption of sugary drinks (particularly Coke) in Mexico. Then right now it's the Bake-Off, just happened to be sponsored by... Ribena!!
Sadly, people just want to forget. So the shirt sits in my cupboards, unsold and unloved
https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/28/romania-reports-new-record-for-covid-19-cases-amid-slow-vaccination-rates
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
It was Heseltine's idea, ended up being a New Labour project so inevitably reflected that, even the Queen had to be dragged along on Millennium Eve when I am sure she would rather have been at Sandringham
In 2021 the birthrate is 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
In 2020 the birthrate was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
In 2019 the birthrate was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.
Those spaces in Russia keep getting bigger.
The housing is cheap though
The one thing is that the data for some/most countries heavily lagged.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
With the number of unknowns between now and an election, and old friends lurking like inflation (especially), there are no reasons for significantly differentiating between a Tory majority (325/6+) seats and the other outcome (325/4-) seats.
All it takes is Lab to take 35 seats, LDs 10 and SNP 3 off the Tories. This is doable without Labour being lead by Pericles; it simply requires a bit of "time for a change" sentiment.
The Tories have no friends, so if they go below viability they won't survive. The centre left will not be forgiven if it missed the chance of government, despite the obvious questions.
Therefore the probabilities of a non Tory government and SKS PM are high. About 40%.
Probabilities and predictions are different things. I predict a Tory win next time. By how much I have no idea. Somewhere between 1 and 120 I should think.
*ducks*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBi5RezWSaI
Japan has a birth rate of 1.36
Taiwan has a birth rate of 1.07
South Korea, incredibly, has a birth rate of 0.84
This must be the lowest birth rate of any developed nation in modern history
Of course the west has a problem with low birth rates, too, but we tend to have higher immigration, which offsets this to an extent
In 2020 South Korea's population began to decline and unless they can reverse this plummeting birth rate their population will halve in 30-40 years, and of course become much older. It's a massive crisis waiting to happen. China is also in the same boat, just further behind in terms of disaster
Is it possible that, the Government having smashed the economy and racked up vast debts in its desperate efforts to save old people from Covid, the country will find itself unable to obtain (or afford) enough fuel this Winter and everyone who has been rescued from disease at colossal expense will simply be killed off by the cold instead?
Alas, the Plague disaster may not truly be over, it may simply be about to metastasise into something different but even more lethal. Aren't we lucky?
https://www.cityam.com/breaking-eu-puts-trade-talks-with-australia-on-hold-after-48bn-submarine-row/
Good morning, Emmanuel. Have you got a really, really good way for us to punch ourselves in the face?
Gas production is now rising again (albeit slowly) and that will accelerate as drilling increases in the US.
US electricity demand is also now falling as temperatures drop.
And there are three or four big LNG projects that are coming on stream in the next four to six months.
Asking for a bipolar friend
India too has a bigger birthrate than China
In point of fact I'm feeling fairly optimistic that things might be a little rocky but we'll all be fine in the end.
Probably.
The 21st century might be the century when the global population of humans begins to fall
With robots and automation, ultimately, that might not be a problem, indeed it could be a good thing
You only have to go to a country like Egypt - population 104,000,000 - to realise that they have simply too many people. Egypt's optimum population, given its size and the area of fertile land, should be about a third of that at most?
Cairo has gone from poor but busy city with some lush attractive areas and even nice parks and boulevards, to an absolute shit-hole, in my lifetime. Too Many People
But as I just replied to @Leon, my previous remarks were a mere passing moment of catastrophism, and I imagine that everything will probably turn out fine in the end...
After wearing pajamas for a year it feels great.
Yes, I hope it is disproved soon
The problem is adjusting, and also, how we cope with so many oldsters. We either need some new drugs that revive the crumblies and cure dementia, or we need a huge plague that simply wipes out 1bn people over 70
Nice try, Wuhan, but no bullseye. Have another go
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate
Africa also has young religious populations who believe in big families and supporting their elderly.
There will still be a lot of poverty there as you say unless they advance technologically like the west and Far East which by itself reduces the need for more workers but the sheer scale of their population increase will see them also get a big rise in gdp