You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
What's app groups are quite a recent phenomena. We're starting to learn about the dangers of posting on social media when you're young (see Ollie Robinson, for example), but this is another area of potential danger. You're part of a group in which some, but not all, members of the group make racist/homophobic/sexist jokes/comments. Are you guilty if you see it and don't report it?
The answer may well be "yes". However, if we do the right thing once, we have to do the right thing every time.
"for allegedly failing to challenge the messages sent by the others."
What fresh hell is this ?
Presumably that's not the criminal element, but gross misconduct. But I reckon the civil service would apply it to their staff. Private companies? Up to them, I guess.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
What's app groups are quite a recent phenomena. We're starting to learn about the dangers of posting on social media when you're young (see Ollie Robinson, for example), but this is another area of potential danger. You're part of a group in which some, but not all, members of the group make racist/homophobic/sexist jokes/comments. Are you guilty if you see it and don't report it?
The answer may well be "yes". However, if we do the right thing once, we have to do the right thing every time.
"for allegedly failing to challenge the messages sent by the others."
What fresh hell is this ?
Presumably that's not the criminal element, but gross misconduct. But I reckon the civil service would apply it to their staff. Private companies? Up to them, I guess.
What's next, sackable to follow Marcherlord or Prison Planet on twitter ?
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
That makes sense although I’d include the “roughly around the same majority” in the 55pc (pedantry).
One other point. Starmer’s problem is that he has to overcome two obstacles, not one, when it comes to persuading people to vote Labour. The first is making people see him personally as a potential PM. On that score, personally, I think he is doing ok - he wouldn’t be great but he wouldn’t be a disaster..
The second is more problematic namely that, even if people accept SKS, they may not accept Labour. I suspect a key problem for SKS is that most ex-Lab voters don’t see him as strong enough to overcome the Rayners, Long-Baileys etc and you run the risk that you think you are voting for SKS and a “moderate” agenda but then the far left take over a la the GLC in 1981/2
What's app groups are quite a recent phenomena. We're starting to learn about the dangers of posting on social media when you're young (see Ollie Robinson, for example), but this is another area of potential danger. You're part of a group in which some, but not all, members of the group make racist/homophobic/sexist jokes/comments. Are you guilty if you see it and don't report it?
The answer may well be "yes". However, if we do the right thing once, we have to do the right thing every time.
"for allegedly failing to challenge the messages sent by the others."
What fresh hell is this ?
Presumably that's not the criminal element, but gross misconduct. But I reckon the civil service would apply it to their staff. Private companies? Up to them, I guess.
What's next, sackable to follow Marcherlord or Prison Planet on twitter ?
My police officer friend is ultra cautious about this stuff. He actually gets a little bit twitchy if we're out an I use a rather derogatory term for a group of people that occupy a lot of his time (I now refer to them as do as you likeys, which I stole from my brother in law).
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
As far as I know they do but Couzens was in plain clothes
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
So why do it at all? And having done it, why bother U-turning on the length of the visas?
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
So why do it at all? And having done it, why bother U-turning on the length of the visas?
A minor concession to the hauliers, something to appease the media? I don’t know. But they clearly aren’t going to use this to solve the fundamental problem. Just look at the tiny number of visas they are offering.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
Boris was chosen as Conservative leader precisely because he peddled fantasies. The government was elected with its big majority precisely because it peddled fantasies. It's hardly going to suddenly start sensible planning. Boris always, every time, ignores reality long after everyone else could see what's coming, and then, finally, u-turns too late to avoid the disaster. Every time.
Oh dear what a fool this idiot from north Yorks police is.
How do such morons actually get these positions in politics? Someone who actually thinks it's acceptable to blame a woman who's been brutally kidnapped, raped and murdered for being too "submissive" would surely be unemployable in "real life"
What is it about politics that means any idiot can get a job?
It recalls the Tory mps who claimed that they wouldn’t have remained in place at Grenfell. Just insensitive.
These morons get to be PCC because they are elected. If they have the correct colour rosette and no criminal record it's a shoe-in.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
What's app groups are quite a recent phenomena. We're starting to learn about the dangers of posting on social media when you're young (see Ollie Robinson, for example), but this is another area of potential danger. You're part of a group in which some, but not all, members of the group make racist/homophobic/sexist jokes/comments. Are you guilty if you see it and don't report it?
The answer may well be "yes". However, if we do the right thing once, we have to do the right thing every time.
"for allegedly failing to challenge the messages sent by the others."
What fresh hell is this ?
Presumably that's not the criminal element, but gross misconduct. But I reckon the civil service would apply it to their staff. Private companies? Up to them, I guess.
I also don't read the article as anyone has been investigated for simply "failing to challenge." It is for that and sending inappropriate messages. Anyways. This is nit-picking. Fact is. Met Officers under criminal investigation are working as Police Officers. Not suspended. Other forces have suspended. Other professions have safeguarding rules whereby suspension would be automatic. Even ones not responsible for upholding the law.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
So why do it at all? And having done it, why bother U-turning on the length of the visas?
It should have been 6 months from the onset
However, by granting 5,000 visas only Starmer immediately called for 100,000 highlighting that labour would reintroduce much more immigration from the EU
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
Yes. He ignores them and dares them to bring down the government.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
That makes sense although I’d include the “roughly around the same majority” in the 55pc (pedantry).
One other point. Starmer’s problem is that he has to overcome two obstacles, not one, when it comes to persuading people to vote Labour. The first is making people see him personally as a potential PM. On that score, personally, I think he is doing ok - he wouldn’t be great but he wouldn’t be a disaster..
The second is more problematic namely that, even if people accept SKS, they may not accept Labour. I suspect a key problem for SKS is that most ex-Lab voters don’t see him as strong enough to overcome the Rayners, Long-Baileys etc and you run the risk that you think you are voting for SKS and a “moderate” agenda but then the far left take over a la the GLC in 1981/2
Good points.
My gut is that the Conservative vote will hold up very well - in aggregate - in 2023/4. They got 43.6% in 2019, and I don't expect that to drop much; maybe they'll lose a percent and a half and end up at around 42%.
Where I think it gets slightly tricky for them is that oppositions get better at tactical voting, the longer a party is in government. (See Scotland for an extreme example of this.)
I think that probably loses them a few seats in England. Plus, of course, the SNP is rampant in Scotland.
Against that, the boundary changes will be helpful to the Conservatives. The question for Boris will be does he go to the country while popular in 2023, or wait until 2024 when there are more favourable boundaries, but also the risk of events.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
Anything over Con 300 and we'd be voting again pretty soon.
What's app groups are quite a recent phenomena. We're starting to learn about the dangers of posting on social media when you're young (see Ollie Robinson, for example), but this is another area of potential danger. You're part of a group in which some, but not all, members of the group make racist/homophobic/sexist jokes/comments. Are you guilty if you see it and don't report it?
The answer may well be "yes". However, if we do the right thing once, we have to do the right thing every time.
"for allegedly failing to challenge the messages sent by the others."
What fresh hell is this ?
Presumably that's not the criminal element, but gross misconduct. But I reckon the civil service would apply it to their staff. Private companies? Up to them, I guess.
I also don't read the article as anyone has been investigated for simply "failing to challenge." It is for that and sending inappropriate messages. Anyways. This is nit-picking. Fact is. Met Officers under criminal investigation are working as Police Officers. Not suspended. Other forces have suspended. Other professions have safeguarding rules whereby suspension would be automatic. Even ones not responsible for upholding the law.
Honest opinion? Deep down the Met think it's being done to keep up appearances.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
Boris was chosen as Conservative leader precisely because he peddled fantasies. The government was elected with its big majority precisely because it peddled fantasies. It's hardly going to suddenly start sensible planning. Boris always, every time, ignores reality long after everyone else could see what's coming, and then, finally, u-turns too late to avoid the disaster. Every time.
I agree. But is also suggests that the senior Civil Service has been effectively neutered, either out of despair, or because all the good people have gone, or because Ministers simply don't listen. In the "old days", governments of all colours would have listened to CS advisers and knocked some of the more bonkers ideas on the head.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
Yes. He ignores them and dares them to bring down the government.
His pop at Sturgeon was one of the more interesting parts of his speech.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
Yes. He ignores them and dares them to bring down the government.
His pop at Sturgeon was one of the more interesting parts of his speech.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
So why do it at all? And having done it, why bother U-turning on the length of the visas?
A minor concession to the hauliers, something to appease the media? I don’t know. But they clearly aren’t going to use this to solve the fundamental problem. Just look at the tiny number of visas they are offering.
Also, I suspect that any visas that are taken will be used by people who do trips all around Europe. It makes coming to the UK that much more convenient. But it won't make you necessarily stay there all the time.
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
So why do it at all? And having done it, why bother U-turning on the length of the visas?
A minor concession to the hauliers, something to appease the media? I don’t know. But they clearly aren’t going to use this to solve the fundamental problem. Just look at the tiny number of visas they are offering.
As Philip said a few days ago, it is probably an appeasing strategy to calm things down a bit in the media.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
Yes. He ignores them and dares them to bring down the government.
I think what is being forgotten is the wider problem of enacting anything to do with England (as opposed the UK with or without NI) in that situation. All the SNP have to do is what they do already and abstain from England-only bills. It's not as if SKS would get very far. Edit: Indyref would be months along - and by then SKS's administration would have fallen for many other reasons.
I'm actually now wondering if this is why Mr Gove is scrapping EVEL. All of a sudden it will become SNP MPs' duty to vote in all divisions and abstaining on England-only laws will be interpreted as allying with the Tories. Or something.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
Yes. He ignores them and dares them to bring down the government.
I think what is being forgotten is the wider problem of enacting anything to do with England. All the SNP have to do is what they do already and abstain from England-only bills. It's not as if SKS would get very far.
I'm actually now wondering if this is why Mr Gove is scrapping EVEL. All of a sudden it will become SNP MPs' duty to vote in all divisions and abstaining on England-only laws will be interpreted as allying with the Tories. Or something.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
Yes. He ignores them and dares them to bring down the government.
I think what is being forgotten is the wider problem of enacting anything to do with England. All the SNP have to do is what they do already and abstain from England-only bills. It's not as if SKS would get very far.
I'm actually now wondering if this is why Mr Gove is scrapping EVEL. All of a sudden it will become SNP MPs' duty to vote in all divisions and abstaining on England-only laws will be interpreted as allying with the Tories. Or something.
Good point.
Not sure I have thought through the Govist strategy - may be overinterpreting. Or he may simpluy be hoping to lay a few English nationalist landmines.
New French poll has Eric Zemmour overtaking any of the candidates for les Republicains
Macron 25% Marine Le Pen 16% Eric Zemmour 15% Xavier Bertrand 14%
The alternative LR candidates do worse: Valérie Pécresse 12% Michel Barnier 11%
Although Les Républicains are supposedly going to choose a single candidate, which would change the dynamics.
That's an opinion poll with just a single LR candidate.
Yes, I realised that after I'd posted, so deleted my comment. Mind you, hypothetical polls like that tend to be unreliable, because respondents favouring one of the candidates don't like to admit that, if it came to it, they would actually vote for one of the alternatives.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
And very short-lived.
Yes, probably, and either way.
The psychology will be very different though. When TM-the-then-PM lost a majority in 2017, she actually increased the vote share compared with 2015. She didn't close that many seats and could cobble together something with the DUP.
For the Conservatives to be around 310 to 320 next time, they've got to lose quite a lot of seats and that will require a fair fall of vote share. They will look like big losers. And they won't find any coalition partners. Labour won't have won, but they'll look like winners.
Trying to hang on really won't be in the Conservatives' interests- they would get crushed six months later. Remember the hate at Brown's "squatting in No 10"? So much so that this is the exception to the "stay out of opposition if you possibly can" theory.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
My tank only takes 35 litres, so I have to run quite low to put 30 quid in (less of an issue recently). Off course it doesn’t put off the determined idiot, but it will stop some, and that might be enough.
Edit: in case @hyfud is reading, it’s my fuel tank, not a panzer...
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
I saw on a youtube video a while ago that US policemen are now playing records from the hit parade as background noise from their phones, which renders them unable to be used on youtube if posted. They just get blocked.
What's app groups are quite a recent phenomena. We're starting to learn about the dangers of posting on social media when you're young (see Ollie Robinson, for example), but this is another area of potential danger. You're part of a group in which some, but not all, members of the group make racist/homophobic/sexist jokes/comments. Are you guilty if you see it and don't report it?
The answer may well be "yes". However, if we do the right thing once, we have to do the right thing every time.
What's app is new yes. Police Officers under active criminal investigation being allowed to carry on working sadly isn't.
Police officers keeping other people under criminal investigation who should not be is an equally significant problem.
Listening to the energy crisis and it is a crisis for many, my wife and I reflected on the 1940 and 1950s living in my wife's case in NE Scotland and I in Berwick where there was no central heating and we just dressed accordingly
Indeed we both laugh at how we used to get dressed under the blankets in bed, and my father used to rise early to light the coal fire to heat the back boiler for our hot water
Indeed coal fires were our main source of heat, indeed my wife as a young girl stumbled into the fire and a friend managed to rescue her quickly and she suffering just a few burns
Maybe we were just more hardy in those days as we knew nothing different but we do remember them
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
I think that's a genuine known unknown ATM. Will the desire to have a centre left alliance which gets Tories out of government trump the problem. And a real problem it is: the UK will have voted for unionist parties overwhelmingly, and Scotland not. Both would have a mandate. Both would face potential disaster if the issue allowed the Tories back in.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
And very short-lived.
Yes, probably, and either way.
The psychology will be very different though. When TM-the-then-PM lost a majority in 2017, she actually increased the vote share compared with 2015. She didn't close that many seats and could cobble together something with the DUP.
For the Conservatives to be around 310 to 320 next time, they've got to lose quite a lot of seats and that will require a fair fall of vote share. They will look like big losers. And they won't find any coalition partners. Labour won't have won, but they'll look like winners.
Trying to hang on really won't be in the Conservatives' interests- they would get crushed six months later. Remember the hate at Brown's "squatting in No 10"? So much so that this is the exception to the "stay out of opposition if you possibly can" theory.
The difference with Brown's squatting is he comprehensively lost the election. He lost by 48 seats and 7.1% of the vote.
If the Tories get most votes and most seats then even if they're not majority winners then they'll not be big losers comparable to Brown. If the Tories find themselves 48 seats behind or anything like it comparable to Brown there isn't going to be a hint of squatting.
You need Boris to lead the Conservatives into the next election. Starmer to lead Labour. The Conservatives to not just lose their majority, but to lose it badly enough that Starmer can (and does) form the next government.
Impossible?
Far from it.
But not a 25% chance either.
I'm normally quite close to you on the betting front but in this case not.
For me, Starmer and Johnson are almost nailed on to lead into the GE, so PM post that is a 2 horse race. This strong view of mine, that neither are going anywhere, is why I lumped on Starmer Next PM at 8 when it was available a few months ago post Hartlepool. I never saw him being unseated by the party before he has his shot, and I never gave much credence to the 'Boris out early and replaced by Rishi' scenario.
Now? Well I price the GE as follows:
Con maj 60% Con min 15% Lab maj 5% Lab min 20%
So, excluding the 'remotes' of either stepping down before the GE, or Johnson winning it and then in due course fighting another with Starmer staying on as LOTO and finally winning that one, which about cancel each other out, I have 25% as being about fair value right now for Starmer Next PM. But I don't truly think he will be so as soon as it goes under 4 I'll probably be laying my position back.
I'm also happy with my £300 to £100 with shrewdball @isam on Starmer being PM after the next GE - a slightly different bet to Next PM. And he's happy with it too, so that's nice, exactly what you want with a bet, just like that final hand in the Cincinnati Kid. Only question is, who's the Steve McQueen and who's the Edward G Robinson? I might look very like the former - cough - but I hope that's where the resemblance ends on this one.
what do you think is the minimum number of seats needed for Cons to form a minority government?
Great question. I'd say if they get over 300 they have a chance. Over 315 and they are favs.
If the Conservatives get 315 seats, I don't believe an alternative government (i.e. one without the Cons) is possible.
Just about is, I'd say. But difficult and quite unlikely.
And very short-lived.
Yes, probably, and either way.
The psychology will be very different though. When TM-the-then-PM lost a majority in 2017, she actually increased the vote share compared with 2015. She didn't close that many seats and could cobble together something with the DUP.
For the Conservatives to be around 310 to 320 next time, they've got to lose quite a lot of seats and that will require a fair fall of vote share. They will look like big losers. And they won't find any coalition partners. Labour won't have won, but they'll look like winners.
Trying to hang on really won't be in the Conservatives' interests- they would get crushed six months later. Remember the hate at Brown's "squatting in No 10"? So much so that this is the exception to the "stay out of opposition if you possibly can" theory.
Hardly. Brown was accused of trying to Squat in No 10 when he had 258 seats, not 310-320
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
Boris was chosen as Conservative leader precisely because he peddled fantasies. The government was elected with its big majority precisely because it peddled fantasies. It's hardly going to suddenly start sensible planning. Boris always, every time, ignores reality long after everyone else could see what's coming, and then, finally, u-turns too late to avoid the disaster. Every time.
The Johnson paradox.
Not only is he great at politics but terrible at government, he's great at politics because he's terrible at government. If he had a grip on reality, he couldn't make the promises that make him popular.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
New French poll has Eric Zemmour overtaking any of the candidates for les Republicains
Macron 25% Marine Le Pen 16% Eric Zemmour 15% Xavier Bertrand 14%
The alternative LR candidates do worse: Valérie Pécresse 12% Michel Barnier 11%
I haven't heard of Eric Zemmour, do we know much about him?
He hasn't even said he's running. But, yes, he's pretty well-known in France.
He said a couple of days ago that it would be seen as a betrayal if he doesn’t run now so I think it’s pretty certain he will be a candidate.
Cheers. Missed that. Someone must prevent 2 non-boomers reaching the run-off again. No younger generation can be trusted. For the sake of the world and the spirit of '68 or some such usual utter bollocks from our elders and betters.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
Boris was chosen as Conservative leader precisely because he peddled fantasies. The government was elected with its big majority precisely because it peddled fantasies. It's hardly going to suddenly start sensible planning. Boris always, every time, ignores reality long after everyone else could see what's coming, and then, finally, u-turns too late to avoid the disaster. Every time.
The Johnson paradox.
Not only is he great at politics but terrible at government, he's great at politics because he's terrible at government. If he had a grip on reality, he couldn't make the promises that make him popular.
And that paradox can't continue indefinitely...
Can it?
As I've said before, I think it will continue up until the time when there's a credible alternative government. Previously I've thought that that will be a long wait, but there were some tentative signs of progress at the Labour conference. Only tentative, though.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
I think that's a genuine known unknown ATM. Will the desire to have a centre left alliance which gets Tories out of government trump the problem. And a real problem it is: the UK will have voted for unionist parties overwhelmingly, and Scotland not. Both would have a mandate. Both would face potential disaster if the issue allowed the Tories back in.
Not just Scotland. One also needs to factor in NI. What if they vote a non-Unionist, pro-referendum majority of MPs?
AFAICS Wales is less likely to do that - but who knows?
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
I think when push and shove come the DUP (Or TUV) will give confidence to the Tories rather than getting into a Lab/SNP/LD arrangement. It's not that they won't back Starmer, more they won't want any sort of arrangement that involves the SNP. Either that or another quick election. So the seat count for Johnson to stay on is below a Tory majority. Also remember SF lowers the effective thresholds for both Tories and Labour.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Aloso people will drive more as a consequence. Also prolonging the crisis.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Aloso people will drive more as a consequence. Also prolonging the crisis.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Around us nothing and they would not need to wait any longer than normal
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Aloso people will drive more as a consequence. Also prolonging the crisis.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
I have not needed to fill up and if I did I have a 600+ mile range
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory majority is a lot better chance than 40%.
Firstly, this is a big seat lead to blow. I mean, it can happen (see 2007), but it's pretty hard to blow an 80 seat majority all in one go. (Plus, of course, the Conservatives probably have a small boost from the boundaries.)
Secondly, it's not like the opposition is kicking the governments butts. I mean, if Starmer was winning byelections from the Conservatives and recording consistent poll leads (like, say, Ed Milliband), then you'd reckon they were in with a chance. But they're not.
Thirdly, the last time we had the government flip (2010), local elections showed the government moribund. The same was true of 1997. This time, the government is gaining council seats.
Now, I agree that Covid has messed up the usual electoral cycle. That's reasonable. I also think Boris is still getting a Brexit "thank you" boost. And it's possible that both those things dissipate to the level where the Conservative majority is imperilled. But it doesn't seem that likely.
To me, the most likely outcome is that the Conservatives lose a little bit of share, and there's a little bit more tactical voting, and the SNP gain some seats, and the Conservatives drop to a 30 or 40 seat majority. But I'm not seeing the seachange necessary for Starmer to end up in Number 10.
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
I saw on a youtube video a while ago that US policemen are now playing records from the hit parade as background noise from their phones, which renders them unable to be used on youtube if posted. They just get blocked.
"the hit parade"? Haven't run across THAT phrase (outside of a golden oldies ad aimed at the super-annuated) for about three decades or thereabouts.
Do you have a source? Considering the issues we have in US with law enforcement, doubt that the "record over my bodycam with copyright soundtrack" is truly a widespread let alone serious issue.
Though no doubt it's been tried. Also no doubt that only a drunken judge would let it slide IF it came to legal proceedings. For one thing, the footage itself would still be admissible in court. With side benefit of documenting (even further) police misconduct.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Isn't the missing 37% a sum of odds of a Tory minority/coalition plus the odds of Labour forming a government but Starmer having previously fallen under a bus?
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Aloso people will drive more as a consequence. Also prolonging the crisis.
Sorry. Just temping to cover for Philip_Thompson. He hasn't appeared to do his shifts. Apparently if CCHQ only paid me £100k to spin their line I would do so.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Crisis almost completely over in my bit of rural Derbyshire. Cheapest filling station in the area had fuel and no queue when I refilled at lunchtime today. My local Morrisons has had fuel every morning this week as I've been driving past on my to work, queues at the start of the week, none now (more than an odd car or two).
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
I saw on a youtube video a while ago that US policemen are now playing records from the hit parade as background noise from their phones, which renders them unable to be used on youtube if posted. They just get blocked.
They don't get blocked. They get demonetized. So, it's a pretty dumb strategy.
Well, it's not taken them long to realise what the rest of us thought was bleeding obvious - that short-term visas ending on Christmas Eve would not seduce many HGV drivers, and would probably not be long enough anyway even if it did attract some.
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
It’s quite clear they aren’t pinning their hopes on this visa scheme. Why make it time limited and capped at such a low number otherwise?
So why do it at all? And having done it, why bother U-turning on the length of the visas?
It should have been 6 months from the onset
However, by granting 5,000 visas only Starmer immediately called for 100,000 highlighting that labour would reintroduce much more immigration from the EU
So they were playing politics with the problem rather than trying to solve it? Surely not, Big G.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Aloso people will drive more as a consequence. Also prolonging the crisis.
Sorry. Just temping to cover for Philip_Thompson. He hasn't appeared to do his shifts. Apparently if CCHQ only paid me £100k to spin their line I would do so.
Actually, I realised I wasn't too sure myself - had been doing some stuff this afternoon so had to update myself what with the assurances from the PBTories on here!
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Aloso people will drive more as a consequence. Also prolonging the crisis.
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
. . . More than 365,000 other Albertans who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 also parked their vote elsewhere or didn't vote at all this time.
The Tories took a whopping 69 per cent of the vote in the province in the 2019 election. In last week's results they dropped 14 points, down to 55 per cent. . . .
The NDP and Liberals gained 7.5 per cent and almost two per cent, respectively. The People's Party of Canada jumped five per cent. The Maverick Party, in its first election, took just over one per cent of the popular vote. . . .
The Conservatives bled support to both sides of the political spectrum. The Liberals, NDP, PPC and Mavericks sucked up 263,000 more collective Alberta votes than in the previous election, while voter turnout fell nearly five percentage points, from 69.2 per cent to 64.5 per cent.
"It seems funny to think that there'd be a lot of Conservative/NDP switchers in Alberta, but it seems that there probably was some movement between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals," said Janet Brown of Janet Brown Opinion Research.
She pointed out that disenchanted Conservative voters are usually more likely to stay home than change their vote, but this election was different.
"[They] might have lost some votes on the far right to the Maverick Party or to the People's Party. I think the bigger concern for Erin O'Toole, though, is probably not the votes that went that way. It's the votes that went to centrist parties, despite his efforts to have a more centrist message."
The drop in support only cost Conservatives three additional seats this election — they hold 30 of 34 seats in Alberta, while the Liberals and NDP each have two — but analysts say it sends a message that what once worked for the party in Alberta may not work anymore.
Question re: policing - do British coppers (bent, tarnished, toxic or none of the above) wear body cameras?
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
I saw on a youtube video a while ago that US policemen are now playing records from the hit parade as background noise from their phones, which renders them unable to be used on youtube if posted. They just get blocked.
They don't get blocked. They get demonetized. So, it's a pretty dumb strategy.
Sky reporting from a Chester service station operating normally subject to a £30 max
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
2 things I don’t get about the £30 max rule
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again? 2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Does it? If you're topping up half a tank at a time, that's not a problem. The issue was that last Friday everyone wanted to fill up. I filled up, but I won't need to again until the end of the month. Eventually we'll get back to normal, though I do feel sorry for the retailers. They're probably going to miss out on shop sales due to people wanting to get in and out as quickly as possible.
What I’m saying is, in aggregate more fuel will be in more fuel tanks as a consequence of the £30 max policy, which seems to now be widespread. So, the crisis is prolonged.
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Crisis almost completely over in my bit of rural Derbyshire. Cheapest filling station in the area had fuel and no queue when I refilled at lunchtime today. My local Morrisons has had fuel every morning this week as I've been driving past on my to work, queues at the start of the week, none now (more than an odd car or two).
Slightly further south, the filling station in Rugeley was shut when I drove past it. However, the Tower Garage in Pye Green has fuel again after being shut for several days. Pye Green Garage itself was, according to the owner, ‘back to normal’ (fuel, no queues, no limits) and she was very glad of it, although one pump was dry of diesel.
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
I think that's a genuine known unknown ATM. Will the desire to have a centre left alliance which gets Tories out of government trump the problem. And a real problem it is: the UK will have voted for unionist parties overwhelmingly, and Scotland not. Both would have a mandate. Both would face potential disaster if the issue allowed the Tories back in.
Not just Scotland. One also needs to factor in NI. What if they vote a non-Unionist, pro-referendum majority of MPs?
AFAICS Wales is less likely to do that - but who knows?
That would require SF and the SDLP to win a majority of NI seats, even the Alliance oppose a border poll now as do the UUP, DUP and TUV of course.
I think when push and shove come the DUP (Or TUV) will give confidence to the Tories rather than getting into a Lab/SNP/LD arrangement. It's not that they won't back Starmer, more they won't want any sort of arrangement that involves the SNP. Either that or another quick election. So the seat count for Johnson to stay on is below a Tory majority. Also remember SF lowers the effective thresholds for both Tories and Labour.
Plus Boris is about to impose direct rule over NI from the UK government as carrot for the DUP when the Unionist parties withdraw from the Stormont executive over the NI protocol Frost wants the EU to remove
Just done my shop at ASDA and the petrol station was basically empty (4/12 pumps occupied at rush hour).
Down to half a tank after filling up left week, so I didn't bother refilling and will fill up next week when its on empty as I'm not a panic buying fool. 😉
OT I don't think the underlying reality of Starmer's chances have changed much. I think this odds change is more of a correction to near where it should have been. I think people have been vastly overestimating the likelihood of Starmer being replaced before an election. Yes, it's still possible, but no, I don't think it'll happen.
I think this is right - his position is more secure and this reflects that.
Agree. SKS's chance of being next PM is calculated thus: There is a nearly 50% chance of the Tories coming below about 320 seats. This puts SKS as next PM (coalition almost certainly, he would need a black swan to win) unless:
Boris was replaced as PM before this happens SKS was replaced before this happens or The Tories manage a coalition, and even if they do SKS still has a chance of being next PM if Boris is still in charge. (The chance of all this is tiny)
Those three contingencies I would put as 10-15% between them. SKS has a 33-40% chance of being next PM.
I’m not sure it is that high. I think one thing such a probability is predicated on is that we see a return to historical norms ie less controversial opposition leader comes in, some of the scared ex-Labour voters come home and that tips over a number of seats. However, there is a strong case for saying Labour’s problems are more structural and that they are less through them than the Conservatives’ equivalent, namely urban professionals. There are likely to be a number of “Labour Till I Die” voters still out there who are literally dying off. Add that to signs the Indian community is moving more Conservative and that Labour’s Muslim voters may be open to a left wing, anti-woke alternative such as Galloway, there is a decent case for saying SKS’ odds should be more like 20-25%.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives increase their majority at the next GE. Not saying it’s a probability but it’s definitely a distinct possibility.
There is definitely a chance - a good chance - that the Conservatives increase their majority at the next election.
It's probably:
20% inc Con majority 55% reduced Con majority (but still majority) 7% only Con minority possible
Something like that...
If you make a CON majority a 75% chance then the 40% on Betfair on that outcome is a good bet
Yes, it's a cracking bet.
If a Tory majority is 40%, Starmer next PM must be higher than 23%.
Tory Majority should be easily odds on in my opinion
5/7.
I think what we should look for is substantial churn. With new boundaries and continuing demographic and social changes it’s not hard to see Labour losing another 40 seats in the north and midlands while advancing in the south, and Wales.
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
. . . More than 365,000 other Albertans who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 also parked their vote elsewhere or didn't vote at all this time.
The Tories took a whopping 69 per cent of the vote in the province in the 2019 election. In last week's results they dropped 14 points, down to 55 per cent. . . .
The NDP and Liberals gained 7.5 per cent and almost two per cent, respectively. The People's Party of Canada jumped five per cent. The Maverick Party, in its first election, took just over one per cent of the popular vote. . . .
The Conservatives bled support to both sides of the political spectrum. The Liberals, NDP, PPC and Mavericks sucked up 263,000 more collective Alberta votes than in the previous election, while voter turnout fell nearly five percentage points, from 69.2 per cent to 64.5 per cent.
"It seems funny to think that there'd be a lot of Conservative/NDP switchers in Alberta, but it seems that there probably was some movement between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals," said Janet Brown of Janet Brown Opinion Research.
She pointed out that disenchanted Conservative voters are usually more likely to stay home than change their vote, but this election was different.
"[They] might have lost some votes on the far right to the Maverick Party or to the People's Party. I think the bigger concern for Erin O'Toole, though, is probably not the votes that went that way. It's the votes that went to centrist parties, despite his efforts to have a more centrist message."
The drop in support only cost Conservatives three additional seats this election — they hold 30 of 34 seats in Alberta, while the Liberals and NDP each have two — but analysts say it sends a message that what once worked for the party in Alberta may not work anymore.
He lost 0.6% nationally, the PPC were up 3% so most of his votes lost were to his right
Can anyone see any way for Starmer to become PM after the next election that doesn't involve doing a deal with the SNP, one that would allow them to hold another independence referendum which would risk the break-up of the UK?
I think that's a genuine known unknown ATM. Will the desire to have a centre left alliance which gets Tories out of government trump the problem. And a real problem it is: the UK will have voted for unionist parties overwhelmingly, and Scotland not. Both would have a mandate. Both would face potential disaster if the issue allowed the Tories back in.
Not just Scotland. One also needs to factor in NI. What if they vote a non-Unionist, pro-referendum majority of MPs?
AFAICS Wales is less likely to do that - but who knows?
That would require SF and the SDLP to win a majority of NI seats, even the Alliance oppose a border poll now as do the UUP, DUP and TUV of course.
There is zero chance of a Plaid majority in Wales
But the Alliance view is that the situation is under advisement and they are prepared to change their minds. So they can't be counted on in the medium to long term, though your 'now' is quite correct.
New French poll has Eric Zemmour overtaking any of the candidates for les Republicains
Macron 25% Marine Le Pen 16% Eric Zemmour 15% Xavier Bertrand 14%
The alternative LR candidates do worse: Valérie Pécresse 12% Michel Barnier 11%
I haven't heard of Eric Zemmour, do we know much about him?
He is a writer and intellectual who is a Gaullist/Bonapartist and anti neo liberal on economics but also Eurosceptic, anti mass immigration, and anti woke and anti humanitarian interventions abroad.
Though I think only Bertrand could beat Macron in the run off
Comments
This government's short-termism and inability to think fairly simple things through is quite something, isn't it?
One other point. Starmer’s problem is that he has to overcome two obstacles, not one, when it comes to persuading people to vote Labour. The first is making people see him personally as a potential PM. On that score, personally, I think he is doing ok - he wouldn’t be great but he wouldn’t be a disaster..
The second is more problematic namely that, even if people accept SKS, they may not accept Labour. I suspect a key problem for SKS is that most ex-Lab voters don’t see him as strong enough to overcome the Rayners, Long-Baileys etc and you run the risk that you think you are voting for SKS and a “moderate” agenda but then the far left take over a la the GLC in 1981/2
And if not, why not?
BTW, re: using cellphones to film arrests, that is pretty common these days on this side of the Pacific (and Atlantic). With the murder of George Floyd the most notable example.
Here in Seattle, filming of arrests by average citizens who happen to be on the scene is almost commonplace. And the police are quickly learning (in some cases the hard way) that it's a BAD idea for them to object let alone interfere.
That said, there is still a risk (as noted down thread) so best to keep your wits and mind your p's & q's IF you decided to film an arrest going down.
She has finally provided an answer to that age-old question: "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"
And now we know.
Bus drivers.
It is for that and sending inappropriate messages.
Anyways. This is nit-picking.
Fact is. Met Officers under criminal investigation are working as Police Officers. Not suspended.
Other forces have suspended.
Other professions have safeguarding rules whereby suspension would be automatic. Even ones not responsible for upholding the law.
However, by granting 5,000 visas only Starmer immediately called for 100,000 highlighting that labour would reintroduce much more immigration from the EU
My gut is that the Conservative vote will hold up very well - in aggregate - in 2023/4. They got 43.6% in 2019, and I don't expect that to drop much; maybe they'll lose a percent and a half and end up at around 42%.
Where I think it gets slightly tricky for them is that oppositions get better at tactical voting, the longer a party is in government. (See Scotland for an extreme example of this.)
I think that probably loses them a few seats in England. Plus, of course, the SNP is rampant in Scotland.
Against that, the boundary changes will be helpful to the Conservatives. The question for Boris will be does he go to the country while popular in 2023, or wait until 2024 when there are more favourable boundaries, but also the risk of events.
Macron 25%
Marine Le Pen 16%
Eric Zemmour 15%
Xavier Bertrand 14%
The alternative LR candidates do worse:
Valérie Pécresse 12%
Michel Barnier 11%
They have also shown a map confirming London and the South East are still experiencing shortages
The media just want to fuel (no pun intended) this issue.
PS: if it's subject to a £30 max, it's not "normally" is it?
I'm actually now wondering if this is why Mr Gove is scrapping EVEL. All of a sudden it will become SNP MPs' duty to vote in all divisions and abstaining on England-only laws will be interpreted as allying with the Tories. Or something.
1. What’s to stop drivers just going-around-again?
2. Doesn’t it encourage people to top up when they’re at half a tank? That’s what I’m doing. If everybody does this, it just prolongs the crisis.
Course. They could come 3rd and 4th.
For the Conservatives to be around 310 to 320 next time, they've got to lose quite a lot of seats and that will require a fair fall of vote share. They will look like big losers. And they won't find any coalition partners. Labour won't have won, but they'll look like winners.
Trying to hang on really won't be in the Conservatives' interests- they would get crushed six months later. Remember the hate at Brown's "squatting in No 10"? So much so that this is the exception to the "stay out of opposition if you possibly can" theory.
Edit: in case @hyfud is reading, it’s my fuel tank, not a panzer...
Indeed we both laugh at how we used to get dressed under the blankets in bed, and my father used to rise early to light the coal fire to heat the back boiler for our hot water
Indeed coal fires were our main source of heat, indeed my wife as a young girl stumbled into the fire and a friend managed to rescue her quickly and she suffering just a few burns
Maybe we were just more hardy in those days as we knew nothing different but we do remember them
If the Tories get most votes and most seats then even if they're not majority winners then they'll not be big losers comparable to Brown. If the Tories find themselves 48 seats behind or anything like it comparable to Brown there isn't going to be a hint of squatting.
Not only is he great at politics but terrible at government, he's great at politics because he's terrible at government. If he had a grip on reality, he couldn't make the promises that make him popular.
And that paradox can't continue indefinitely...
Can it?
Someone must prevent 2 non-boomers reaching the run-off again. No younger generation can be trusted.
For the sake of the world and the spirit of '68 or some such usual utter bollocks from our elders and betters.
AFAICS Wales is less likely to do that - but who knows?
I’m sure the nudge unit (is it still a thing?) would have this figured out.
Also remember SF lowers the effective thresholds for both Tories and Labour.
However if it allows the queuing to end and more people get fuelled it is sensible
The latest from Britain Predicts - if an election was held tomorrow...
CON: 331 MPs (-34)
LAB: 230 (+28)
SNP: 58 (+10)
LDEM: 7 (-4)
Most marginal constituency:
Pudsey (Con 43.9, Lab 43.8)
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1443993184586063876
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1443908791708360719?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1443908791708360719|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/oct/01/business-confidence-falls-petrol-crisis-energy-fuel-pigs-butchers-stock-markets-business-live?page=with3Ablock-6156feb28f089420bc419d7b
Firstly, this is a big seat lead to blow. I mean, it can happen (see 2007), but it's pretty hard to blow an 80 seat majority all in one go. (Plus, of course, the Conservatives probably have a small boost from the boundaries.)
Secondly, it's not like the opposition is kicking the governments butts. I mean, if Starmer was winning byelections from the Conservatives and recording consistent poll leads (like, say, Ed Milliband), then you'd reckon they were in with a chance. But they're not.
Thirdly, the last time we had the government flip (2010), local elections showed the government moribund. The same was true of 1997. This time, the government is gaining council seats.
Now, I agree that Covid has messed up the usual electoral cycle. That's reasonable. I also think Boris is still getting a Brexit "thank you" boost. And it's possible that both those things dissipate to the level where the Conservative majority is imperilled. But it doesn't seem that likely.
To me, the most likely outcome is that the Conservatives lose a little bit of share, and there's a little bit more tactical voting, and the SNP gain some seats, and the Conservatives drop to a 30 or 40 seat majority. But I'm not seeing the seachange necessary for Starmer to end up in Number 10.
Do you have a source? Considering the issues we have in US with law enforcement, doubt that the "record over my bodycam with copyright soundtrack" is truly a widespread let alone serious issue.
Though no doubt it's been tried. Also no doubt that only a drunken judge would let it slide IF it came to legal proceedings. For one thing, the footage itself would still be admissible in court. With side benefit of documenting (even further) police misconduct.
The drop in support cost the Conservatives 3 additional seats in this federal election
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/conservative-vote-alberta-election-1.6194190
. . . More than 365,000 other Albertans who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 also parked their vote elsewhere or didn't vote at all this time.
The Tories took a whopping 69 per cent of the vote in the province in the 2019 election. In last week's results they dropped 14 points, down to 55 per cent. . . .
The NDP and Liberals gained 7.5 per cent and almost two per cent, respectively. The People's Party of Canada jumped five per cent. The Maverick Party, in its first election, took just over one per cent of the popular vote. . . .
The Conservatives bled support to both sides of the political spectrum. The Liberals, NDP, PPC and Mavericks sucked up 263,000 more collective Alberta votes than in the previous election, while voter turnout fell nearly five percentage points, from 69.2 per cent to 64.5 per cent.
"It seems funny to think that there'd be a lot of Conservative/NDP switchers in Alberta, but it seems that there probably was some movement between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals," said Janet Brown of Janet Brown Opinion Research.
She pointed out that disenchanted Conservative voters are usually more likely to stay home than change their vote, but this election was different.
"[They] might have lost some votes on the far right to the Maverick Party or to the People's Party. I think the bigger concern for Erin O'Toole, though, is probably not the votes that went that way. It's the votes that went to centrist parties, despite his efforts to have a more centrist message."
The drop in support only cost Conservatives three additional seats this election — they hold 30 of 34 seats in Alberta, while the Liberals and NDP each have two — but analysts say it sends a message that what once worked for the party in Alberta may not work anymore.
There is zero chance of a Plaid majority in Wales
Down to half a tank after filling up left week, so I didn't bother refilling and will fill up next week when its on empty as I'm not a panic buying fool. 😉
About the only things I am confident of predicting are that (1) the SNP will be the largest party in Scotland (2) Labour will be the largest party in Wales, the Tories having blown their window of opportunity to break through and (3) the Liberal Democrats will win seats only within easy commuter distance of major university cities plus Orkney and Shetland.
Though I think only Bertrand could beat Macron in the run off