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Starmer’s big speech barely moves the betting markets – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    Foxy said:

    Though we would both be kingdoms under the same crown, surely that couldn't be a United Kingdom?

    Just as we wouldn't be a United Kingdom with Canada or Fiji?
    Confusingly, James VI and I called himself ‘King of Great Britain, France and Ireland’ even though ‘Great Britain’ was legally two separate countries (if you don’t believe me check the blurb of the King James Bible).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    Foxy said:

    Surely we are the UK, until Scotland buggers off? Neither Wales nor NI are kingdoms.
    We can call ourselves whatever we like. The United Kingdom (capital U, capital K) only came into existence at the Union with Ireland - immediately prior to that we were in the Kingdom of Great Britain. But the name survived the loss of most of Ireland nevertheless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    edited September 2021
    They say crime doesn't pay, but I make out this woman took a profit of £317,000 from her crime if she has to pay back £120k on theft of £437k

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/fraudster-who-splashed-437-000-she-stole-ordered-to-pay-back-120-000/ar-AAOXOYV?ocid=msedgntp
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    Someone described me as looking like “Gove, with nicer hair” on Monday. Is there any point in continuing?
  • Farooq said:

    Why would anyone who already knows how they're going to vote bother to watch any conference speech?

    Maybe because they're a politics geek?

    Same reason I'll watch Manchester United v Manchester City or Tottenham v Arsenal despite not being a fan of either, because I enjoy football.
  • I took part in this survey and we were shown clips from the speech.
    Won't that depend upon who curated the clips then?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    Any decent restaurant recommendations for central Glasgow?

    Last time I was there I nearly incited a riot after describing the local food as tasting like deep fried shavings from a ped egg.

    This is our favourite. Recommend the celebration menu if you want to splurge.

    https://www.brianmaule.com/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    Pulpstar said:

    They say crime doesn't pay, but I make out this woman took a profit of £317,000 from her crime if she has to pay back £120k on theft of £437k

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/fraudster-who-splashed-437-000-she-stole-ordered-to-pay-back-120-000/ar-AAOXOYV?ocid=msedgntp

    Well, AIUI rather she has spent the £317,000 so there is no way of reclaiming it. She has been ordered to hand over all the money she has.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    Yes it was heartbreaking, and as a parent I can only guess the appalling pain the Mother is going through, particularly in the knowledge that Ms. Everard would have soon become aware of her fate.

    There does seem to be rather a lot of police officers who have ulterior motives for joining the force. On a day when Starmer's keynote speech was quite rightly sidelined by Couzens' pre-sentencing appearance, it might dawn on Starmer that something he should be looking at for a future Labour Government is vastly more rigerous recruitment procedures for police officers.

    And here's one to put the cat amongst the pigeons. The banning of police officers from joining secret organisations whilst in service. No secret dinners on a Tuesday night with Kenny Noye and no secret handshakes with Wally Virgo.
    If you give Scottish police officers the choice of their job or their membership of the masons, there may be an imminent shortage of Scottish police officers.


  • This is our favourite. Recommend the celebration menu if you want to splurge.

    https://www.brianmaule.com/
    Thanks.
  • Won't that depend upon who curated the clips then?
    It was via the medium of the news report as shown on TV, so we got the important soundbites as well as the hecklers and the wider context.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited September 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Someone described me as looking like “Gove, with nicer hair” on Monday. Is there any point in continuing?

    Some small comfort that at least you're not married to La Vine. But then it looks like neither will he be for much longer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    This week’s NEW EUROPEAN: “Crisis? What Crisis?” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1443301659602571267/photo/1
  • Farooq said:

    Why would anyone who already knows how they're going to vote bother to watch any conference speech?

    Why would anyone watch any conference speech? Back in the day, it was because there was nothing else on, apart from Programmes for Schools and Colleges. The only other daytime TV was live cricket, and what fool would schedule a cricket match in England at the end of September? The 70's were hell in many ways.

    Starmer's speech looks like it will generate some positive soundbites for the minority of the electorate who watch the news. It will buy him some more time by hushing his party rivals and party enemies. It will nudge the pinball away from some paths that would be bad for him. It's done what it had to do, maybe all one speech could do. It's a positive step on a long road.
  • Yes it was heartbreaking, and as a parent I can only guess the appalling pain the Mother is going through, particularly in the knowledge that Ms. Everard would have soon become aware of her fate.

    There does seem to be rather a lot of police officers who have ulterior motives for joining the force. On a day when Starmer's keynote speech was quite rightly sidelined by Couzens' pre-sentencing appearance, it might dawn on Starmer that something he should be looking at for a future Labour Government is vastly more rigerous recruitment procedures for police officers.

    And here's one to put the cat amongst the pigeons. The banning of police officers from joining secret organisations whilst in service. No secret dinners on a Tuesday night with Kenny Noye and no secret handshakes with Wally Virgo.
    Recruitment is actually only a small part of it. Anyone can game a recruitment process.

    The organisational culture in day-to-day operation is far more important.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    .

    Won't that depend upon who curated the clips then?
    Won't Johnson be measured in exactly the same way next week, in order to get an accurate picture? Keynote points would be shown.
  • Pulpstar said:

    They say crime doesn't pay, but I make out this woman took a profit of £317,000 from her crime if she has to pay back £120k on theft of £437k

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/fraudster-who-splashed-437-000-she-stole-ordered-to-pay-back-120-000/ar-AAOXOYV?ocid=msedgntp

    There are other ways to recover the difference when she has sufficient assets/income in the future.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    EXCLUSIVE: The Conservatives will host the LGB Alliance at this year's party conference.

    The charity has paid for a stall at the event, igniting a row within the party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-09-29/row-over-lgb-alliance-stand-at-conservative-party-conference
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE: The Conservatives will host the LGB Alliance at this year's party conference.

    The charity has paid for a stall at the event, igniting a row within the party.


    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-09-29/row-over-lgb-alliance-stand-at-conservative-party-conference

    LGB Alliance, was that the group that was criticised because it does not include Transgender?
  • GB number plates no longer valid.

    If you are driving abroad then your GB plates have to be replaced by UK plates.

    At first encounter, I imagined this was the EU playing silly buggers over Brexit but it turns out the government has told the UN we want to be called UK not GB. I had noticed and wondered why so many ministers kept saying UK instead of British recently, and apparently it is part of some grand scheme to do something or other.

    A Department for Transport spokesperson said: "Changing the national identifier from GB to UK symbolises our unity as a nation and is part of a wider move towards using the UK signifier across government.

    "We notified the UN of our intention to make these changes in July, and have been working with the sector to implement the change."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58734265

    Sounds like a wonderful way of reaffirming Tory commitment to the Union in symbolism, while continuing long-standing party tradition of trashing it in substance.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429
    edited September 2021

    Thanks.
    Italian cafes are a feature in Scotland. This is the best. A couple of miles from the city centre, but we are happy to travel from Ayrshire to Coia’s, even though we are only three miles from the most famous Scottish Italian cafe. You may want to book, especially at weekends.

    https://coiascafe.co.uk/
    https://www.nardinis.co.uk/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642

    Sounds like a wonderful way of reaffirming Tory commitment to the Union in symbolism, while continuing long-standing party tradition of trashing it in substance.
    Meh. No country lasts forever. The UK’s been disintegrating for 100 years. It’s done well to last this long.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    Of the tiny minority who watched it.
    What they did is show highlights to a sample of 1330, and compared it with previous similar experiments with first-time leader speeches - he did better (5.9/10) than Corbyn 2015 (5.1), who in turn did better than Johnson 2019 (4.1).

    Which shows the limitations, since Johnson actually won. But although most people won't have seen this speech, it does suggest that he comes across well when people listen to him - and there will be plenty more opportunities for that as we emerge from lockdown. The key finding is probably that 63% agreed with what he had to say, vs. 29% who didn't.

  • Italian cafes are a feature in Scotland. This is the best. A couple of miles from the city centre, but we are happy to travel from Ayrshire to Coia’s, even though we are only three miles from the most famous Scottish Italian cafe. You may want to book, especially at weekends.

    https://coiascafe.co.uk/
    https://www.nardinis.co.uk/
    I have a trip to Glasgow in November, am seeing Blondie, get there on the Thursday and leave Monday.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138

    Sounds like a wonderful way of reaffirming Tory commitment to the Union in symbolism, while continuing long-standing party tradition of trashing it in substance.

    The most vocal opponents appear to be gammons who drive 'classic' cars with permanent GB plates
  • It was via the medium of the news report as shown on TV, so we got the important soundbites as well as the hecklers and the wider context.
    That makes sense thanks. I thought you meant the pollster had curated the clips sorry.
    Scott_xP said:

    This week’s NEW EUROPEAN: “Crisis? What Crisis?” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1443301659602571267/photo/1

    The New European finally gets something right. There's no crisis just a media furore.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The most vocal opponents appear to be gammons who drive 'classic' cars with permanent GB plates
    How much is a sticker going to cost from Halfords?

    Seems an utterly pointless change, but its not exactly going to be the end of the world to slap a sticker on the back of the car.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Man Utd are terrible.
  • What they did is show highlights to a sample of 1330, and compared it with previous similar experiments with first-time leader speeches - he did better (5.9/10) than Corbyn 2015 (5.1), who in turn did better than Johnson 2019 (4.1).

    Which shows the limitations, since Johnson actually won. But although most people won't have seen this speech, it does suggest that he comes across well when people listen to him - and there will be plenty more opportunities for that as we emerge from lockdown. The key finding is probably that 63% agreed with what he had to say, vs. 29% who didn't.

    Worth remembering that, for all his real talents, BoJo is a surprisingly poor live public speaker. He's not done the mythical 10 000 hours of slogging away trying to convince a hostile (and sober) audience.

    Overall, it works for him, but it's noticeable.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    I have a trip to Glasgow in November, am seeing Blondie, get there on the Thursday and leave Monday.
    Enjoy. We saw Blondie at the Hydro the last time they were in Glasgow. Aged well.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Thanks, will check that out.
    Obsession of India if you like Indian.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138

    Italian cafes are a feature in Scotland. This is the best. A couple of miles from the city centre, but we are happy to travel from Ayrshire to Coia’s, even though we are only three miles from the most famous Scottish Italian cafe. You may want to book, especially at weekends.

    https://coiascafe.co.uk/
    https://www.nardinis.co.uk/

    I still mourn Brattisani's
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    IshmaelZ said:

    Obsession of India if you like Indian.

    What about Mother India?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Obsession of India if you like Indian.
    Asian restaurants are a bit of a busman's holiday for me.
  • Enjoy. We saw Blondie at the Hydro the last time they were in Glasgow. Aged well.
    Yup, the warm up is Garbage, I'm going to enjoy this gig.
  • tlg86 said:

    Man Utd are terrible.

    But Ole's at the wheel.
  • The thing about Man Utd is, they always try and walk it in
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Foxy said:

    Though we would both be kingdoms under the same crown, surely that couldn't be a United Kingdom?

    Just as we wouldn't be a United Kingdom with Canada or Fiji?
    Fiji’s been a republic since the 1987 coup.

    As for Aus, Canada, NZ etc, prior to the Statute of Westminster in 1931 they were technically still “colonies” of the UK (the Colonial Laws Validity Act still applied). The Statute specifically stated that the “dominions” as then called, “Queen’s realms” today, were under separate Crowns from that of the UK. So in historic terms, CANZUK+ are all in personal unions under a common monarch, which is constitutionally, if not practically, is the same as the situation betwixt England and Scotland between 1603 and 1707.

    NB, although the entity created by the acts of Union in 1707 was often referred to as “the United Kingdom”, 18th century usage of capitalization was very much a personal choice of the writer, and the concept of an “official name” for a country wasn’t really a thing as those usually get defined in written constitutions which didn’t really get started until the Americans wrote one (though there were earlier ones, such as for the short-lived Corsican state).

    The term “United Kingdom” for the country that today is made up of Great Britain and Northern Ireland was not officially adopted until the Act of Union of 1801.

    That said, Northern Ireland may not be itself a kingdom, but the Queen’s right over it devolves from that of the former Kingdom of Ireland, and that’s why the Irish harp still appears in the royal arms. If that basis had changed, the royal arms would show the arms of Northern Ireland, themselves based on those of the province of Ulster. Mind you, the royal arms and style claimed France until 1802 as well!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459
    tlg86 said:

    Man Utd are terrible.

    Nearly arsenal level...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    What they did is show highlights to a sample of 1330, and compared it with previous similar experiments with first-time leader speeches - he did better (5.9/10) than Corbyn 2015 (5.1), who in turn did better than Johnson 2019 (4.1).

    Which shows the limitations, since Johnson actually won. But although most people won't have seen this speech, it does suggest that he comes across well when people listen to him - and there will be plenty more opportunities for that as we emerge from lockdown. The key finding is probably that 63% agreed with what he had to say, vs. 29% who didn't.

    The key finding for me is that it’s yet another poll that a PB person was asked to take part in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Since Prince Andrew seems to have permanently barricaded himself in Balmoral we may be lumbered with a small part of it in any case.
    Might be a useful negotiating position - keeping him there would be worth a lot.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609

    If you give Scottish police officers the choice of their job or their membership of the masons, there may be an imminent shortage of Scottish police officers.
    Quite possibly not just Scotland. It seems a conflict of interest to me, so in that case so be it.

    Kenny Noye is my poster boy for why such an arrangement is a very bad idea.
  • News Flash - In Seattle, King Co Elections has confirmed that petition calling for recall of Socialist Alternative city councilmember Kshama Sawant have sufficient valid voter signatures to qualify for a special election.

    Date will not be set until the petition is officially certified, but under state law a recall election must be called 45 to 90 days after certification. King Co Elections says they a tentatively planning for a December 7, 2021 special recall election.

    Note that sponsors of the recall deliberately waited to submit signatures until AFTER the deadline for qualifying for the November 2 general election ballot.

    Recall petition access Sawant, who currently represents City Council District 3 of "using city resources to promote a “Tax Amazon” ballot initiative and letting demonstrators into City Hall during protests last June when the building was closed to the public due to COVID-19. Sawant and her supporters have described the recall effort as a conservative attempt to combat her work at City Hall for workers and renters." (Seattle Times)

    Kshama Sawant has been THE stormy petrel of Seattle politics for over a decade, first winning election to the council by defeating an incumbent in 2013.

    BTW, her Socialist Alternative party is a successor to Militant Tendency. Always bugs me when Seattle media call her a Socialist when she is REALLY a Communist of the Trotskyite (or -ist if you prefer) persuasion.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459

    Enjoy. We saw Blondie at the Hydro the last time they were in Glasgow. Aged well.
    Yes, I saw about 5 Yr ago.

    Debbie Harry moves well for a pensioner.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941
    isam said:

    The key finding for me is that it’s yet another poll that a PB person was asked to take part in.
    You sayin' they're not randoms from the internet?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Of course, we'll have to change back when NI buggers off.

    And if Scotland goes too, we'll be left with the rather unappealling EW...........
    That’s why we are changing the brand. If they do then we have the UK & they can’t take it from us 😁😂
  • Foxy said:

    Yes, I saw about 5 Yr ago.

    Debbie Harry moves well for a pensioner.
    Glasgow Kissin' in the USA?
  • Italian cafes are a feature in Scotland. This is the best. A couple of miles from the city centre, but we are happy to travel from Ayrshire to Coia’s, even though we are only three miles from the most famous Scottish Italian cafe. You may want to book, especially at weekends.

    https://coiascafe.co.uk/
    https://www.nardinis.co.uk/
    Gone off Coia’s partly due to the flock of customers’ large, tinted window 4x4s parked up on double yellows on a Thurs-Saturday. Much as I’d like to, not inclined to make sarky remarks to the large, tattooed owners. Tend to go to Celino’s on the Parade now if feeling that way inclined.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,223
    edited September 2021
    isam said:

    The key finding for me is that it’s yet another poll that a PB person was asked to take part in.
    As the pollsters will all tell you I tick the boxes of several hard to reach demographics.

    Opinium also downweight the politically engaged.

    One of the things why Opinium get things right like GE2019 is that they downweight people who say they will vote for a party but disapprove of its leader.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459
    geoffw said:

    You sayin' they're not randoms from the internet?

    Though that doesn't stop polling being accurate. For example @isam always quotes Internet polls on leader qualities.
  • Farooq said:

    Even Shirley Manson is 55. Almost the same age as Boris Johnson.
    Shut up.

    Shirley Manson was my first love.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Barcelona won't even make the Europa League.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941
    Foxy said:

    Though that doesn't stop polling being accurate. For example @isam always quotes Internet polls on leader qualities.
    What makes you think they're accurate?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138

    Shirley Manson was my first love.

    She did some very unpleasant things
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Worth remembering that, for all his real talents, BoJo is a surprisingly poor live public speaker. He's not done the mythical 10 000 hours of slogging away trying to convince a hostile (and sober) audience.

    Overall, it works for him, but it's noticeable.
    Yes, indeed

    When I was compiling my "conference speeches I remember" list (see below for more excitement!) it struck me that I can't remember a single line of a Boris conference speech, not even a joke, I don't think - and he tells pretty good jokes

    What I do remember is the PR and the stunts and the TV shows

    The TV Love Actually rip off advert - superb, one of the best electoral ads I've ever seen

    The interview where he speaks Ancient Greek from the Iliad for five minutes

    HIGNFYou

    Driving through a wall

    Donnez moi un break


    He's often good at the "impromptu" stuff and he can be absolutely brilliant at staged TV, but in general he's a poor speaker, especially at conferences
  • Scott_xP said:

    She did some very unpleasant things
    Are you talking about The Terminator Chronicles?
  • isam said:

    The key finding for me is that it’s yet another poll that a PB person was asked to take part in.
    Yes, probably the online polling panels are contaminated by political partisans, who might also have lied about their demographics in order to be accepted.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Leon said:

    He's often good at the "impromptu" stuff and he can be absolutely brilliant at staged TV, but in general he's a poor speaker, especially at conferences

    I remember him waving a brick.

    I don't remember why
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138

    Are you talking about The Terminator Chronicles?

    Don't Google it. It will put you right off your breakfast.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Scott_xP said:

    I remember him waving a brick.

    I don't remember why
    Likewise

    With Boris it's a series of vivid images that stick in the mind, like a 30 year long cartoon
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459

    Yes, probably the online polling panels are contaminated by political partisans, who might also have lied about their demographics in order to be accepted.
    So which polls do you follow?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    MattW said:

    Is still think it was presented as a funny, idiosyncratic, 'look at these strange little people', amusing story.
    Oh yes, the metro-wotsits do that all the time.
  • Leon said:

    Yes, indeed

    When I was compiling my "conference speeches I remember" list (see below for more excitement!) it struck me that I can't remember a single line of a Boris conference speech, not even a joke, I don't think - and he tells pretty good jokes

    What I do remember is the PR and the stunts and the TV shows

    The TV Love Actually rip off advert - superb, one of the best electoral ads I've ever seen

    The interview where he speaks Ancient Greek from the Iliad for five minutes

    HIGNFYou

    Driving through a wall

    Donnez moi un break


    He's often good at the "impromptu" stuff and he can be absolutely brilliant at staged TV, but in general he's a poor speaker, especially at conferences
    The bit I remember from last year (I think?) was when he made fun of people who used to say wind farms were so bad they "couldn't pull the skin of a rice pudding".

    And of course who said that . . . it could only be one person he was quoting! And then of course every FBPE 🤡 felt they had to share Boris's remarks as a result.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Britain ordered soldiers to start driving fuel tankers to replenish empty pumps, as motorists remained stuck in queues after nearly a week of shortages. That's despite politicians' assurances things were improving
    https://reut.rs/3oxyXiH https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1443313381352644608/video/1
  • Scott_xP said:

    Don't Google it. It will put you right off your breakfast.
    She didn't vote SNP did she?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932
    edited September 2021
    Leon said:

    Yes, indeed

    When I was compiling my "conference speeches I remember" list (see below for more excitement!) it struck me that I can't remember a single line of a Boris conference speech, not even a joke, I don't think - and he tells pretty good jokes

    What I do remember is the PR and the stunts and the TV shows

    The TV Love Actually rip off advert - superb, one of the best electoral ads I've ever seen

    The interview where he speaks Ancient Greek from the Iliad for five minutes

    HIGNFYou

    Driving through a wall

    Donnez moi un break


    He's often good at the "impromptu" stuff and he can be absolutely brilliant at staged TV, but in general he's a poor speaker, especially at conferences
    I remember Boris tripping up as he walked to the mike stand when he won the London mayoralty and saying, 'Ah... Ken's final booby trap!' (or something alike that). I thought it was quite a good ad-lib at the time, but it was probably all completely planned.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    Scott_xP said:

    Britain ordered soldiers to start driving fuel tankers to replenish empty pumps, as motorists remained stuck in queues after nearly a week of shortages. That's despite politicians' assurances things were improving
    https://reut.rs/3oxyXiH https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1443313381352644608/video/1

    Perhaps, just perhaps, the two things might be connected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Anecdata


    A floating voter friend of mine - soft Remain, but hates Remoaners - has texted me

    "Watched a bit of Keir. I like him. He's honest. I'm bored of Boris. I will vote for Keir next time"

    He's in a quasi-marginal and voted Tory in 2019.....
  • tlg86 said:

    Barcelona won't even make the Europa League.

    Barcelona are more fecked than a stepmom on you know where.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/sep/29/real-madrid-can-spend-eight-times-as-much-as-barcelona
  • Foxy said:

    So which polls do you follow?
    I am suspicious of all polls. Online panels are gamed by parties and partisans. Phone polls are badly randomised (see rants passim). Aggressive weighting is used to (attempt to) mask sampling errors. I've some regard for unweighted results, and am intrigued by occasional mass-sampling polls.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Britain ordered soldiers to start driving fuel tankers to replenish empty pumps, as motorists remained stuck in queues after nearly a week of shortages. That's despite politicians' assurances things were improving
    https://reut.rs/3oxyXiH https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1443313381352644608/video/1

    "Despite reassurances things were improving"? Things are improving. Most stations are already back to normal which is precisely why there was never any reason to panic buy.
  • I am suspicious of all polls. Online panels are gamed by parties and partisans. Phone polls are badly randomised (see rants passim). Aggressive weighting is used to (attempt to) mask sampling errors. I've some regard for unweighted results, and am intrigued by occasional mass-sampling polls.
    Dewey! Dewey!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    I remembering Boris tripping up as he walked to the mike stand when he won the London mayoralty and saying, 'Ah... Ken's final booby trap!' (or something alike that). I thought it was quite a good ad-lib at the time, but it was probably all completely planned.
    Yes, again, it is little images and vignettes


    Boris throwing the basketball and somehow scoring from miles away

    Boris stuck on the zipline with the flags

    Boris doing that hand up Feel the Force thing and the cameraman falling over

    Boris in absurd shorts and shirt combo on holiday


    Cartoon images. But in an instagram age, this visual memorability may be a key asset
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    "Despite reassurances things were improving"? Things are improving. Most stations are already back to normal which is precisely why there was never any reason to panic buy.
    I heard the independents had around a quarter they had no fuel, when yesterday it was more than a third. So yes, improving.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153

    GB number plates no longer valid.

    If you are driving abroad then your GB plates have to be replaced by UK plates.

    At first encounter, I imagined this was the EU playing silly buggers over Brexit but it turns out the government has told the UN we want to be called UK not GB. I had noticed and wondered why so many ministers kept saying UK instead of British recently, and apparently it is part of some grand scheme to do something or other.

    A Department for Transport spokesperson said: "Changing the national identifier from GB to UK symbolises our unity as a nation and is part of a wider move towards using the UK signifier across government.

    "We notified the UN of our intention to make these changes in July, and have been working with the sector to implement the change."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58734265

    I'm glad this government is so against gesture politics.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    Off topic

    Hats off to United Airlines who are in the process of firing nearly 600 vaccine dodgers.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941
     
    Leon said:

    Yes, again, it is little images and vignettes


    Boris throwing the basketball and somehow scoring from miles away

    Boris stuck on the zipline with the flags

    Boris doing that hand up Feel the Force thing and the cameraman falling over

    Boris in absurd shorts and shirt combo on holiday


    Cartoon images. But in an instagram age, this visual memorability may be a key asset
    So Scott is right, it's Bozo the clown.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562

    Recruitment is actually only a small part of it. Anyone can game a recruitment process.

    The organisational culture in day-to-day operation is far more important.
    Time to repost this - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/.

    The penultimate paragraph is particularly relevant.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Foxy said:

    Any situation needs risk assessment on its merits. Different situations have different risk and different mitigations.
    Exactly. Let’s tell it as it is.

    There’s far more risk the camera pans and loiters on you front row of leaders conference than in HoC, so got to look your best - not look like a bogroll banditeer.

    Tell me I’m calling it wrong.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459

    I am suspicious of all polls. Online panels are gamed by parties and partisans. Phone polls are badly randomised (see rants passim). Aggressive weighting is used to (attempt to) mask sampling errors. I've some regard for unweighted results, and am intrigued by occasional mass-sampling polls.
    Polling companies know respondents previous responses, so know shifts in opinion.

    I too am dubious about weighting as a compensator for unrandomised samples, but polls are too often correct to invalidate the methodology.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    Our snap poll with @SkyNewsBreak on Starmer's speech is out!

    The verdict - Fairly positive.

    % who think he came across as:
    🔴Cares about ordinary people - 68%
    🔴Competent - 62%
    🔴In touch with people’s concerns - 60%
    🔴Strong - 57%
    🔴Interesting - 41% https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1443278145126342656/photo/1

    That's a very cherry picked set of numbers. You need to include:

    Alive - 44%
    Fragrant - 38%
    Strange haircut - 56%
    Pregnant - 51%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459

    Barcelona are more fecked than a stepmom on you know where.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/sep/29/real-madrid-can-spend-eight-times-as-much-as-barcelona
    That would be the Real Madrid that lost last night to a Moldovan team knocked out last year by Dundalk?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,081
    Off topic, and I’m not sure if anyone else feels the same, but the Sarah everard sentencing is horrifying. The accounts, the timeline.

    And Cressida Dick gets a contract extension?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    gealbhan said:

    Exactly. Let’s tell it as it is.

    There’s far more risk the camera pans and loiters on you front row of leaders conference than in HoC, so got to look your best - not look like a bogroll banditeer.

    Tell me I’m calling it wrong.
    PS I blame Trinny and Susannah for all this bare leg, what exactly was wrong with hose and stockings? And, risk of showing my age, frilly gussets.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,081

    This a million times.

    I have to say I find the emphasis that the Metropolitan Police are putting on Couzens being an “ex” police officer pretty sickening. He was a police officer when he murdered Sarah Everard. More than that, he used that as a key part of his crime.

    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1443292190277570569

    I missed this - but yes..
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941
    Foxy said:

    That would be the Real Madrid that lost last night to a Moldovan team knocked out last year by Dundalk?
    Trans-Dniepr actually.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,459

    Off topic

    Hats off to United Airlines who are in the process of firing nearly 600 vaccine dodgers.

    Presumably because of increased risk to others 🤔
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,429

    "Despite reassurances things were improving"? Things are improving. Most stations are already back to normal which is precisely why there was never any reason to panic buy.
    Oh dear! The media are going to have to find something else to scare the gullible with.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a very cherry picked set of numbers. You need to include:

    Alive - 44%
    Fragrant - 38%
    Strange haircut - 56%
    Pregnant - 51%
    Next James Bond - 72%
    Next Dr Who - 73%
  • Why does Mr Smithson choose the Guardian to anyalse the speech one wonders...
  • lintolinto Posts: 43
    It's interesting about policing, unfortunately it really is a few bad apples, to use that awful phrase.
    The MET are universally disliked by pretty much every other force, their institutional arrogance (a feature of larger metropolitan forces seemingly) causes many of these problems. Strip them of many national focussed roles and either move them to the NCA or regional hubs, possibly.
    How do we change, is a particularly challenging issue, I'd probably give the IOPC greater powers, funding and increase their scrutiny around corruption, I'd wager it would only take 1 or 2 cases to massively move things towards a better place, but keep the pressure on.
    Politicians need to stop being either for or against and work for positive change, listen to the rank and file (not the Federation, a union which fights for its members, as it should, but by definition a very conservative organisation) they have good ideas and recognise where they need to change and how best to achieve it.
    Force forces to adopt best practice, if they don't hold them to account.
    Promote less conservative leaders.
    Fund the criminal justice system at all levels properly.
    That's how I'd start anyway.
  • rcs1000 said:

    That's a very cherry picked set of numbers. You need to include:

    Alive - 44%
    Fragrant - 38%
    Strange haircut - 56%
    Pregnant - 51%
    Has a cervix?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138

    Oh dear! The media are going to have to find something else to scare the gullible with.

    Three more U.K. power suppliers collapse as Energy crisis deepens https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/tally-of-collapsed-u-k-suppliers-rises-as-three-more-fail
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941

    Why does Mr Smithson choose the Guardian to anyalse the speech one wonders...

    Perhaps he likes the exotic spelling.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    You could take Sarah Vine's recommendation of the Ubiquitous Fish? More seriously the Ubiquitous Chip has been providing decent scran in the west end since the 70s and is only a 10 minute cab ride from the centre (call it the U.B. Chip if you want to sound local). The same family also have Stravaigin which is a bit more youth orientated and adventurous, and a bit closer to the centre.

    Edit: checked Stravaigin online and it seems they occasionally have grey squirrel on the menu..
    @TheScreamingEagles

    Stravaigan is superb
This discussion has been closed.