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One Current Leader. And One Future One? – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Cyclefree said:

    No - pills.

    No allergies before. He did have a bad reaction to the anti-tetanus injection as a child.

    Needs further investigation. But as of now he can sip a bit of water.
    That like is for the "sip a bit of water".
    Very best wishes. And don't forget to look after yourself too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    dixiedean said:

    Last call on Canada. 60-40 for Liberals most seats. A bit more bearish than most.
    BUT. Also a 20% chance of a Liberal majority, if the marginal turnout is good, and votes fall in the right places.
    Smarkets 21/5 for Tory most seats is a super value bet.
    The only thing which would really shock me is a Tory majority. Cannot for the life of me see how that happens.
    On a personal note, and I've tried to be objective. Come on NDP! Don't falter as usual. Jagmeet Singh is a super candidate, and whoever wins needs to be aware there is a large bloc of voters on the Left who never get anywhere near power.
    Although the PPC may well be the story.

    I can never understand why the Liberals and NDP don't consider going into coalition government.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,928
    edited September 2021

    Some day you may get it right AUKUS, not AUUKUS
    Let's call the whole thing off! But anyway, naughty old Phillip Thompson was tricking me with old front pages. But I'm probably still right.
  • Hmm. Uncle Joe's tone seems to prove what I suspected all along: AUUKUS was more about pleasing the US arms sector and getting influence over the Australian military than any particular love of Boris.
    Which is a good thing for the UK.

    The last and creepiest thing you want is for an arrangement to be due to transient and potentially lame duck leader's "love" for each other.

    Instead Biden and Boris are both professional enough to know that the USA and the UK are extremely close allies and are willing to set aside any ridiculous nonsense that gets people excited on Twitter.

    Some people fallaciously thought that either Boris or Brexit had torched Britain's relationship with the White House. That's now comprehensively been shown to be pure BDS.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    What a whiny self-serving whinge.

    As RCS wrote earlier today they could have hedged their energy prices at a quarter of today's prices on 26/03/20

    If they failed to do so, that's not Kwarteng's responsibility.
    If I were Kwasi I''d be furious with the bloody idiot government who designed such a system.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    TP last posted once in January 2020 and before that post his last posts were in November 2019.

    I wonder if anything happened around then that changed the way he approaches discussing politics? 🤔
    Lol, yes.

    Canada:(credit viewcode)

    SOME HANDY LINKS
    * Live election results from Elections Canada[2]
    * Election prediction from Andy_JS: don't know if kosher.[3]
    * Live election results from Global News[4][5]

    INTERESTING STATS
    * Postal votes. Canada allows voting by mail. As of Sunday, 1,262,617 postal vote kits (aka special ballot kits) and 923,832 had been returned.[1]
    * Advanced voting. Canada allows voting in person in advance. In-person voting at advance polls was higher than the last election in 2019, with approximately 5,780,000 votes cast from Sept. 10-13.[1]

    Notes
    * [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-day-things-to-watch-1.6181856
    * [2] https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
    * [3] https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
    * [4] https://globalnews.ca/news/8164886/live-canada-election-results-2021-real-time-results-federal-election/
    * [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FplSFOFX_dw

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    Stocky said:

    I agree with nearly all of that.

    Where you say "my answer is only for those who have fully transitioned" sounds like you are defining some female spaces as being for those without a penis, i.e. that is the defining factor rather than being female (gender) or female (sex).
    I would not be bothered by a Jan Morris using the ladies loo. But I know some women are.

  • dixiedean said:

    If I were Kwasi I''d be furious with the bloody idiot government who designed such a system.
    The government didn't design these companies business models.

    Competent businesses paid to hedge their costs and they've got no issue now. Incompetent ones didn't and they're going out of business. That happens, bad businesses can go bust, that's not a flaw in the system.
  • Let's call the whole thing off! But anyway, naughty old Phillip Thompson was tricking me with old front pages. But I'm probably still right.
    Not sure who Phillip is. Maybe someone related to this fictional AUUKUS you keep writing about Staark?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Cyclefree said:

    I would not be bothered by a Jan Morris using the ladies loo. But I know some women are.

    I be terrified if dead people started using public restrooms, so I'm completely with you on this.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402
    Farooq said:

    The British people ratified that, 67%-33%
    Yes, then spent 40 years complaining about it.
  • Not sure who Phillip is. Maybe someone related to this fictional AUUKUS you keep writing about Staark?
    I got the 'p' in 'Thompson' right! Which I did actually look down the thread to check.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Andy_JS said:

    I can never understand why the Liberals and NDP don't consider going into coalition government.
    It's simply not part of the political culture, though it has happened. Either Federally or Provincially. They are very used to, and comfortable with, minority governments. And informal co-operation on an ad hoc basis.
    I guess that is because, even though they have our system, the Provincially massively devolved nature of the country, and its sheer size, has made majorities much less common than here.
    With Scotland, and the LD experience of the Coalition, maybe that is something we have coming soon?
  • Farooq said:

    Such as "look, a French guy is speaking French! He should speak English!" 🤷‍♂
    Good post, otherwise.
    Considering I said that the French minister speaking in French was something you should expect from French ministers, I'm not sure why you directed that to me as an otherwise?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    The first seat to watch in Canada will probably be Labrador where the Cons need a 5.7% swing to win. Target list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10HM1hzw6iFJDOPlYlLuK3nTgEtT0omaCdB1I5dTbhz8/edit#gid=0
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    Lol, yes.

    Canada:(credit viewcode)

    SOME HANDY LINKS
    * Live election results from Elections Canada[2]
    * Election prediction from Andy_JS: don't know if kosher.[3]
    * Live election results from Global News[4][5]

    INTERESTING STATS
    * Postal votes. Canada allows voting by mail. As of Sunday, 1,262,617 postal vote kits (aka special ballot kits) and 923,832 had been returned.[1]
    * Advanced voting. Canada allows voting in person in advance. In-person voting at advance polls was higher than the last election in 2019, with approximately 5,780,000 votes cast from Sept. 10-13.[1]

    Notes
    * [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-day-things-to-watch-1.6181856
    * [2] https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
    * [3] https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
    * [4] https://globalnews.ca/news/8164886/live-canada-election-results-2021-real-time-results-federal-election/
    * [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FplSFOFX_dw

    On (3). Yes it is kosher. It is Eric Grenier, the Canadian John Curtice.
    Tying 2 topics together. He didn't use English till age 18. You wouldn't know.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Apologies for getting TissuePrice and DoubleCarpet mixed up.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,290
    philiph said:

    This is fun.
    Mine is getting alarming close to equidistant to the year my company began, 1879. Another 8 years to go!
    I'm in no danger of that - my company dates back to 1803!
  • Andy_JS said:

    The first seat to watch in Canada will probably be Labrador where the Cons need a 5.7% swing to win. Target list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10HM1hzw6iFJDOPlYlLuK3nTgEtT0omaCdB1I5dTbhz8/edit#gid=0

    Thank you.

    Any idea what time we might start to get results? Is it worth staying up for?
  • I had a great first in-person meeting with UK Foreign Secretary @trussliz to discuss shared priorities, from Iran and Afghanistan to a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1440073070694129664?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Andy_JS said:

    The first seat to watch in Canada will probably be Labrador where the Cons need a 5.7% swing to win. Target list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10HM1hzw6iFJDOPlYlLuK3nTgEtT0omaCdB1I5dTbhz8/edit#gid=0

    You do God's work sometimes Andy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,284
    Andy_JS said:

    Apologies for getting TissuePrice and DoubleCarpet mixed up.

    Off to ConHome with you.

    ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    edited September 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Mmm. Like whenever I mention the truly shocking level of sustained abuse that (say) Diane Abbot received for years and everyone says well, you know, public eye, and anyway it's cos she's a bit thick and can't do numbers, so what can you expect.

    But Rosie Duffield gets a bit of online stick and - ooo - it's front page of the Sunday Times, and all over the Murdoch press, and it's the most TERRIBLE thing ever, and it just shows how HORRIBLE and IRRATIONAL all these weirdo lefty trans people are, how they Cheers thanks. I'd argue for the default the other way. Inclusion unless there's a good reason otherwise. I'm not sure about self-ID but whatever you do, self-ID is at the heart of it since only the person truly knows how they feel. It's in place in several countries without serious problems, I believe. We aren't cutting edge radical on this, not at all.

    Great header anyway. I might try and see if I can write one putting the alternative (and less popular on here!) view.

    Couple of things I'd like to ask you now if you have the time and inclination:

    Do you know any transpeople?

    Harking back to Mrs May's proposed GRA reforms, can you remember if you were passionately opposed to them at the time, or is this an issue you've plunged a lot more into in the last year or so?

    Re the real practical harm to women if transwomen can self-ID and share their facilities/spaces. If - IF - you could be convinced that it'd be immeasurably less than the harm caused to transwomen if they can't, would this influence your view at all?

    I ask this because I detect a strong theological strand to some of the GC feminist argument inc yours, ie that maybe it's not, deep down and fundamentally, about being massively scared about perverts pretending to be women in order to access and harm them, but more a profound objection to womanhood being divorced from biology, a feeling that the whole notion of being a woman is being in some way dissed if those born male can legally become one without going through a heavy mental and physical medical process - Would that, if you're honest, be what actually fires you up about this matter?
    Let me answer you.

    1. I fundamentally disagree with you on the default assumption. Of course you would say that it should be the other way because your assumption is that men should get what they want and women have to argue for exceptions. I say: let's start with what women want for a change.

    2. Yes I know trans people. And one who thought he was - as an adolescent - but realised he was gay instead. I have been strongly influenced by my detailed discussions on this topic by the wife of a transwoman.

    3. I was opposed to Mrs May's reforms at the time. I thought then - and think now - that self-ID is an absolute disaster. A no-no. A red line. If dysphoria is a medical condition then diagnosis is essential before any legal changes affecting other people can take place.

    4. I do not see what harm is caused to transwomen who retain male bodies using male facilities. The harm or risk of harm to women by having male bodies in their facilities is - and always will be - greater. When male violence against women stops then we can stop worrying about men being in female spaces.

    6. I am fired up about this issue because of the risk of violence - having been a victim of it myself. I do not think men have any real understanding deep down in their bones of either how widespread male violence against women is nor how primeval the female fear of it is. But I do also feel that there is a reality to womanhood which is linked to our biology and the experiences that flow from that which is being trivialised and dismissed. Being a woman is about more than wearing a dress and high heels and make up and even cutting your penis off. Women - our realities, our lives, our experiences - are being ignored. Men are ignoring us, are telling us that they know better than we do what being a woman is (you are, lovely as you are, doing it yourself) and then accusing us of all sorts of crimes when we don't agree.

    So, yes, it is existential, for me. This - more than any other single issue - will determine my vote.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Andy_JS said:

    The first seat to watch in Canada will probably be Labrador where the Cons need a 5.7% swing to win. Target list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10HM1hzw6iFJDOPlYlLuK3nTgEtT0omaCdB1I5dTbhz8/edit#gid=0

    What the heck constituency name is this?!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Vancouver—Sunshine_Coast—Sea_to_Sky_Country
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    https://twitter.com/eurobriefing/status/1440019586599067654

    The UK’s strategic realignment was not inevitable. It is to a large extent the result of how the EU conducted the Brexit talks. The EU leadership never missed an opportunity to criticise Brexit. Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council, aligned himself to the second referendum campaign in the UK.

    The second mistake, even worse than the first, was the intent to force the EU’s regulatory system on the UK as a price for a free trade deal. At no point did the EU even consider what kind of strategic relationship it wanted with the UK after Brexit. The EU let anger over Brexit get in the way over rational decision-making.

    The enormous cost of this stupidity is slowly becoming apparent. The UK will not flood the EU with cheap goods, as France had feared. The UK’s strategy is more subtle. It will gradually cut off from European security policy. It will also cut off from the GDPR data protection regime and financial regulation. The UK has invested more into artificial intelligence than any EU member states. It is a permanent member of the UN security council and the G7. What on earth was the EU thinking?

    And no, Biden is not going intervene on the EU’s behalf in the current standoff over Northern Ireland. EU leaders have always underestimated Boris Johnson. And they always overestimated Joe Biden. A bad combination.

    ….

    Over time, I would expect Nato to wither, and the transatlantic link to weaken. The EU talks about strategic autonomy, but underestimates the size and, more importantly, the nature of the task. That would require a federal political union, with a federal foreign policy and European defence force, both independent of member states. To fund it, such a federal union would require tax raising and debt issuing powers. The UK’s inevitable strategic realignment is making that task even harder because the UK used to play a critical part in European security, one that Germany will not fill.

    The adult version of strategic autonomy is a very serious undertaking, for which the EU is not equipped. The collective failure to understand Biden’s foreign policy and the need for an alliance with the UK is telling us that the venture has no hope of succeeding.

    There's a lot of truth in that analysis: basically, you reap what you sow.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Andy_JS said:

    The first seat to watch in Canada will probably be Labrador where the Cons need a 5.7% swing to win. Target list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10HM1hzw6iFJDOPlYlLuK3nTgEtT0omaCdB1I5dTbhz8/edit#gid=0

    Thanks for that. There are 17 seats to be won with a 2% swing, though not all from Libs. 15 more with a further 2%.
    Given the huge drop in Tory support in Alberta (rampant Covid, ICU's full), which will cost a small handful of losses at most, almost all polls point to a Lib-Con overall swing in the rest of the nation as a whole.
    This is why I'm more bearish than most on a Liberal minority. It only takes a small polling fail, particularly in Ontario, and especially in the 905 (suburban Toronto), for a sizeable number of ridings to fall.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,675
    Wondering if the Canadian election is worth staying up for?

    Do they have an exit poll?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    GIN1138 said:

    Wondering if the Canadian election is worth staying up for?

    Do they have an exit poll?

    They don't. Remember, results will probably be declared in Newfoundland, before BC has finished voting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Worth watching Eric Grenier's live vlog on YouTube IMO. He's the Peter Snow of Canadian politics.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvEcB_3s6vA
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    GIN1138 said:

    Wondering if the Canadian election is worth staying up for?

    Do they have an exit poll?

    They don't usually have an exit poll and I can't see any sign of one this time. I'm staying up for a while to see how it goes in Quebec and Ontario.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    kle4 said:

    What the heck constituency name is this?!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Vancouver—Sunshine_Coast—Sea_to_Sky_Country
    It's even better when you click on it:

    West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, which is not to be confused with West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

    Because who could possibly get those two electoral districts confused by their names.

  • Andy_JS said:

    They don't usually have an exit poll and I can't see any sign of one this time. I'm staying up for a while to see how it goes in Quebec and Ontario.
    Those 2 combined pretty much determine the election don't they? Since the other provinces are either so much smaller, or simply lacking in marginals (like Alberta).

    Any idea what time we'd need to stay up for to get a feel for the results in those provinces?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    Thank you.

    Any idea what time we might start to get results? Is it worth staying up for?
    Polls close in Ontario in 2 hours. This is 123 of the 338 ridings, and will, as always, determine the winner. Their counting is not dissimilar to ours. But they won't count postal ballots till tomorrow.
    It is probably better to get up early. If it is a clear winner, then it will be apparent in the hellish small hours. If not, later.
    The regions don't swing together. So Party A doing very well in the early results from the Atlantic, doesn't automatically translate to Party A winning.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    Andy_JS said:

    They don't usually have an exit poll and I can't see any sign of one this time. I'm staying up for a while to see how it goes in Quebec and Ontario.
    Lots of ridiculous coverage on Global - "X is ahead by 9 votes out of 100" - "no, now it's swung and they're 2 behind".
  • kle4 said:

    What the heck constituency name is this?!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Vancouver—Sunshine_Coast—Sea_to_Sky_Country
    You should see some of the German ones....

    Brandenburg an der Havel – Potsdam-Mittelmark I – Havelland III – Teltow-Fläming I
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    edited September 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    It's even better when you click on it:

    West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, which is not to be confused with West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

    Because who could possibly get those two electoral districts confused by their names.

    In fairness. One is a Federal riding, the other a Provincial one.
    And anyways, I'm in favour.
    Not Makerfield. South Wigan-Sun-to Slag Heap-And a Massive Borstal Country. Why not?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    Nova Scotia vote count so far:

    Con +12.8
    Lib -4.3
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Andy_JS said:

    Worth watching Eric Grenier's live vlog on YouTube IMO. He's the Peter Snow of Canadian politics.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvEcB_3s6vA

    Just watching this. Now there is a native French speaker with decent English. Justin Trudeau makes two!!
    Disclaimer. I thought I was reasonably proficient at French till I was transplanted to a Canadian High School 3 000 miles from the nearest Francophone bit.
    I wasn't.
  • Must be weird voting when you already know some of the results.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    MikeL said:

    Nova Scotia vote count so far:

    Con +12.8
    Lib -4.3

    It's difficult to say what's happening at the moment. Conservatives doing well in some places but not others.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited September 2021
    Atlantic Canada (32 seats):

    Last GE - Con won 4 seats

    Today latest - Con leading in 8 seats
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    MikeL said:

    Nova Scotia vote count so far:

    Con +12.8
    Lib -4.3

    Yup.
    Nova Scotia just had a Provincial election which resulted in an upset Tory win. Another reason I was not so sure of a Liberal win.
    O'Toole's strategy was pure catnip for the Atlantic. An area Trudeau had swept in 2015. And did super well in 2019 too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Eric Grenier: doesn't look like a Liberal majority, but Conservatives may not be doing well enough to get most seats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,675
    This thread has gone the same way as Justin's career tomorrow morning perhaps...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    Anyways. I'm off to my Chesterfield. Later hosers, eh!
  • Flood of results starts at 2.30 am BST as Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta close
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    rcs1000 said:

    It's even better when you click on it:

    West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, which is not to be confused with West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

    Because who could possibly get those two electoral districts confused by their names.

    The Sea to Sky Highway is of course an iconic road in Canada linking Vancouver to Whistler and is a fantastic journey especially as on it you know you are heading for an amazing time in Whistler.

    Like calling a district wherein it runs the Route 66 District or similar.
This discussion has been closed.