I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
As apparently its still a topic I have now watched Marr from Sunday. Davey points out that he has no involvement in complaint cases and doesn't know anything about it. Marr is reading out a single line and saying "its true" - fine, in what context?
Davey keeps trying to take this back to the actual issue - how do we detoxify the debate? A "trans man is a man" position is not "so women who disagree can go away" - its needing a debate. As I said the other day society will find a balance that works, as it has over gay marriage.
Making it a debate might detoxify things. As it is some appear to want to swing from our past extremes, not entirely escaped with abuse people will still face, to adopting a 'x is y and there can be no debate on that or policy z in response' which just alienates people who would be allies because most people are accepting and dont want to be dicks about things, and they know it's more complex and nuanced than the 'it must be this very specific way, end of' crowd.
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
You both have had a terrible time and a salutary warning about walnut halves, which coincidentally my wife loves to eat
I shall be more careful. I own a Walnut tree, so do consume quite a few!
So do I. Doesn't produce any nuts though. Any advice on how the prune/manage one?
Interesting. Ours just started "fruiting" (is that the right term?) a few years ago and hasn't stopped since. We get hundreds of nuts. I am told it is quite good to be fairly savage with pruning, but we never have been. I planted it myself and it has been there almost twenty years I guess. I am not sure whether they have to cross pollenate, so maybe to do with you not having others in vicinity perhaps?
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Can't you put a net over it?
A whole tree? With squirrels? It's difficult enough having a METAL mesh on a bird feeder with the little sods around.
Maybe he was referring to the squirrel. It might be easier than the tree.
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
Thanks Cyclefree for your well argued header and to be honest trans is not a subject I comment on normally, but Ed Davey's interview yesterday, when he was asked why a female activist had been banned by the lib dems for 10 years, he had no response.
Today we hear Daisy Cooper is now to refer to breast feeding as chest feeding
The speaker condemns the fact Rosie Duffield is frightened to attend labour's conference and the SNP have published proposed changes to Scots law on this subject
Just why have the left got in this mess and the conservatives are right to keep out of the subject
I very much support Rishi to take over from Boris but I would equally be pleased to see Liz Truss succeed
If I was Labour I would be worried about this. Both Rishi and Liz Truss look very electable in a post-Boris landscape not least because they are so utterly different from him while having pretty strong and positive profiles themselves. First rule of politics - you must define your opponent in your own terms. Labour have failed to do this with either Sunak or Truss.
The next election, of course, will be all about Boris. Given that both Sir Keir and Sir Ed are so extraordinarily lacking in personality, "vision", or anything positive at all, it's difficult to imagine anything other than Boris bulldozing them come the day. What a contrast with Major vs Blair and Ashdown in 97.
Boris will certainly easily win another majority in England, however on current polling probably not in the UK which is why the next election is still too close to call.
Biden was a doddery geriatric and still beat Trump on an anti Trump vote, Hollande was dull as ditchwater but beat Sarkozy in 2012 on an anti Sarkozy vote, Starmer is dull as ditchwater but he gives Labour a chance as he will get the anti Boris vote without having the anti Corbyn votes Labour faced in 2019 for the Tories and LDs.
Boris will almost certainly lead the Tories into the next election, Sunak, Truss, Patel etc would have to wait until after that election to take over either as the next PM or as Leader of the Opposition
'A week is a long time in politics'
Maybe you should hang that in front of your pc
Maybe but the current polling is clear, there would be a hung parliament in the UK if there was an election tomorrow.
The Tories would win most seats again but lose their majority and the DUP and Unionist parties in NI or the SNP and LDs would have the balance of power
The current polling is utterly irrelevant to the future
A week is a long time in politics
If current polling was irrelevant to be fair there would be little point in much of this site
It is useful if the context of where we are in the electoral cycle is factored in, but misleading if it’s raw numbers are fed into an electoral calculator to ascertain what it means in terms of seats.
If a noted sprint finisher is alongside someone who sets off fast but tired in the late stages of a 1500m race with 300m left to race, that doesn’t mean it’s likely to be a close finish.
Weird. Is this weather related, I wonder? Might be worth plotting dewpoint vs change in case numbers (lagged, obvs).
By specimen date none of the recent dates have overtaken the 7 day previous at this point, though there is probably some filling in yet to be done, and 17 & 18/9 are both already at 97% of the 10 & 11/9, which is a higher ratio than of late.
If we trace back when those being tested on 17 & 18/9 were likely to have been infected, it is plausible that the warm spell ending on 10/9 coincides and this does seem to have been the case before.
There may also be switch in transmission context here, e.g. if wider community cases reduce exponentially and English schools cases rise exponentially, the latter would soon become a much bigger part of the overall trajectory. I rather pre-empted Malmesbury's age charts last week, but there do look to be early signs of that now.
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
Well 52% of them voted to Leave the EU and 43% of them voted for that deal in 2019 to get a trade deal with the EU that left the SM and CU and end free movement and do our own trade deals.
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
I cannot believe it is a serious threat, since it would be asking the closest partners to screw themselves over without even fixing the issue France are mad about.
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
In my working life I used occasionally to have to make a liquid form of a solid medication. Not always possible, of course, and many pharmacies would not now have the necessary equipment or ingredients, but it might be worth a try.
He's on co-amoxicillin. He cannot even swallow his own saliva. He tried taking Boots Honey, Lemon and Glycerin linctus but had to give up. Cold water is all he can take. We are hoping that once the antibiotics have done their magic the throat will open up. But if this does not happen .... back to the doc he goes. I worry that something else is going on but the ENT guy did not see anything.
It is very odd and a bit worrying. It seems such a silly thing to have caused all this hoo-ha.
The one good thing that has happened is that yesterday he got to meet Piet Oudolf, the Dutch garden designer, as part of a project, for which there is funding to create some sort of High Line (or similar) in the area on disused railway lines etc. All part of a wider project to showcase the beauty of this area, attract tourists, regenerate etc. Husband is involved in this and I hope to be too - given my interest in all things garden-related. It will be great if it comes off.
Take it he's having the liquid formulation? But I agree with you; TBH, although from miles and miles away, I wonder about some sort of allergic reaction to the nuts. Has he ever had problems with nuts before?
Thanks Cyclefree for your well argued header and to be honest trans is not a subject I comment on normally, but Ed Davey's interview yesterday, when he was asked why a female activist had been banned by the lib dems for 10 years, he had no response.
Today we hear Daisy Cooper is now to refer to breast feeding as chest feeding
The speaker condemns the fact Rosie Duffield is frightened to attend labour's conference and the SNP have published proposed changes to Scots law on this subject
Just why have the left got in this mess and the conservatives are right to keep out of the subject
I very much support Rishi to take over from Boris but I would equally be pleased to see Liz Truss succeed
If I was Labour I would be worried about this. Both Rishi and Liz Truss look very electable in a post-Boris landscape not least because they are so utterly different from him while having pretty strong and positive profiles themselves. First rule of politics - you must define your opponent in your own terms. Labour have failed to do this with either Sunak or Truss.
The next election, of course, will be all about Boris. Given that both Sir Keir and Sir Ed are so extraordinarily lacking in personality, "vision", or anything positive at all, it's difficult to imagine anything other than Boris bulldozing them come the day. What a contrast with Major vs Blair and Ashdown in 97.
Boris will certainly easily win another majority in England, however on current polling probably not in the UK which is why the next election is still too close to call.
Biden was a doddery geriatric and still beat Trump on an anti Trump vote, Hollande was dull as ditchwater but beat Sarkozy in 2012 on an anti Sarkozy vote, Starmer is dull as ditchwater but he gives Labour a chance as he will get the anti Boris vote without having the anti Corbyn votes Labour faced in 2019 for the Tories and LDs.
Boris will almost certainly lead the Tories into the next election, Sunak, Truss, Patel etc would have to wait until after that election to take over either as the next PM or as Leader of the Opposition
'A week is a long time in politics'
Maybe you should hang that in front of your pc
Maybe but the current polling is clear, there would be a hung parliament in the UK if there was an election tomorrow.
The Tories would win most seats again but lose their majority and the DUP and Unionist parties in NI or the SNP and LDs would have the balance of power
The current polling is utterly irrelevant to the future
A week is a long time in politics
If current polling was irrelevant to be fair there would be little point in much of this site
It is useful if the context of where we are in the electoral cycle is factored in, but misleading if it’s raw numbers are fed into an electoral calculator to ascertain what it means in terms of seats.
Hardly, given it is seats which determines our government not votes
A good article, Cyclefree. I don't know why it should be so hard to call out and condemn threats of violence against MPs who are women. You don't get a pass for threatening to kill and rape people by being on the "progressive" side of any debate.
Indeed; it's baffling that all parties but one seem to be a) getting strangely hung up on a very niche issue, and b) siding with the violent lunatics and reality-deniers.
As I am generally an internationalist, was not in favour of Brexit and love taking my holidays in France, I am feeling slightly guilty about how much I am enjoying the French anger lol.
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
MPs who receive threats deserve very public support, not private words of support.
As I am generally an internationalist, was not in favour of Brexit and love taking my holidays in France, I am feeling slightly guilty about how much I am enjoying the French anger lol.
It is possible to both like the French and also find it amusing when they act so very French.
Thanks Cyclefree for your well argued header and to be honest trans is not a subject I comment on normally, but Ed Davey's interview yesterday, when he was asked why a female activist had been banned by the lib dems for 10 years, he had no response.
Today we hear Daisy Cooper is now to refer to breast feeding as chest feeding
The speaker condemns the fact Rosie Duffield is frightened to attend labour's conference and the SNP have published proposed changes to Scots law on this subject
Just why have the left got in this mess and the conservatives are right to keep out of the subject
I very much support Rishi to take over from Boris but I would equally be pleased to see Liz Truss succeed
If I was Labour I would be worried about this. Both Rishi and Liz Truss look very electable in a post-Boris landscape not least because they are so utterly different from him while having pretty strong and positive profiles themselves. First rule of politics - you must define your opponent in your own terms. Labour have failed to do this with either Sunak or Truss.
The next election, of course, will be all about Boris. Given that both Sir Keir and Sir Ed are so extraordinarily lacking in personality, "vision", or anything positive at all, it's difficult to imagine anything other than Boris bulldozing them come the day. What a contrast with Major vs Blair and Ashdown in 97.
Boris will certainly easily win another majority in England, however on current polling probably not in the UK which is why the next election is still too close to call.
Biden was a doddery geriatric and still beat Trump on an anti Trump vote, Hollande was dull as ditchwater but beat Sarkozy in 2012 on an anti Sarkozy vote, Starmer is dull as ditchwater but he gives Labour a chance as he will get the anti Boris vote without having the anti Corbyn votes Labour faced in 2019 for the Tories and LDs.
Boris will almost certainly lead the Tories into the next election, Sunak, Truss, Patel etc would have to wait until after that election to take over either as the next PM or as Leader of the Opposition
'A week is a long time in politics'
Maybe you should hang that in front of your pc
Maybe but the current polling is clear, there would be a hung parliament in the UK if there was an election tomorrow.
The Tories would win most seats again but lose their majority and the DUP and Unionist parties in NI or the SNP and LDs would have the balance of power
The current polling is utterly irrelevant to the future
A week is a long time in politics
If current polling was irrelevant to be fair there would be little point in much of this site
It is useful if the context of where we are in the electoral cycle is factored in, but misleading if it’s raw numbers are fed into an electoral calculator to ascertain what it means in terms of seats.
Hardly, given it is seats which determines our government not votes
If a noted sprint finisher is alongside someone who sets off fast, but tires in the latter stages, of a 1500m race with 300m left to race, that doesn’t mean it’s likely to be a close finish, even if the photo shows them neck and neck
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
You both have had a terrible time and a salutary warning about walnut halves, which coincidentally my wife loves to eat
I shall be more careful. I own a Walnut tree, so do consume quite a few!
So do I. Doesn't produce any nuts though. Any advice on how the prune/manage one?
Interesting. Ours just started "fruiting" (is that the right term?) a few years ago and hasn't stopped since. We get hundreds of nuts. I am told it is quite good to be fairly savage with pruning, but we never have been. I planted it myself and it has been there almost twenty years I guess. I am not sure whether they have to cross pollenate, so maybe to do with you not having others in vicinity perhaps?
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Can't you put a net over it?
A whole tree? With squirrels? It's difficult enough having a METAL mesh on a bird feeder with the little sods around.
Maybe he was referring to the squirrel. It might be easier than the tree.
Once caught a squirrel inside a squirrel-proof bird feeder. It was a young one, so could wriggle through the grating. However, after it had eaten a good few it couldn't get out. Gave me a lot of abuse when I went to try and free it.
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Pah. I have squirrels abounding from branch to branch outside my window and they are a daily delight. I feed them regularly and worry that the birds might take the food first - I see squirrel-proof bird feeders on sale, but I want a bird-proof squirrel-feeder. I do just about understand that some might prefer birds. But how can you prefer to see a pile of inanimate nuts?
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
I don't think he is desperate at all. He doesn't like Brexit and he doesn't particularly want to "get over it" which is his right. I mean, let's face it, you don't exactly have to be in favour of "re-join" not to marvel at how thick the people are in this country that 47% of people DON'T think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved!! There are also 22% of people who still believe in it. Staggering! I need to think of a product or service that relies on people's gullibility: would make a fortune!
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
MPs who receive threats deserve very public support, not private words of support.
Yes, I agree. I said in an earlier post that Starmer should publicly state that he will not tolerate intimidation of party members or MPs by others within the party; diversity of views must be respected, broad church and all that. But he can do that without getting involved in the substantive issue of trans rights.
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
Well 52% of them voted to Leave the EU and 43% of them voted for that deal in 2019 to get a trade deal with the EU that left the SM and CU and end free movement and do our own trade deals.
Beth Rigby just said live at the UN that John Kerry has told her the US will step up to Boris's demands
If Biden has outsourced US environmental policy to Boris/Carrie that might actually be quite a good thing - not least because the Trumpist Right would have an absolute meltdown.
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Pah. I have squirrels abounding from branch to branch outside my window and they are a daily delight. I feed them regularly and worry that the birds might take the food first - I see squirrel-proof bird feeders on sale, but I want a bird-proof squirrel-feeder. I do just about understand that some might prefer birds. But how can you prefer to see a pile of inanimate nuts?
As apparently its still a topic I have now watched Marr from Sunday. Davey points out that he has no involvement in complaint cases and doesn't know anything about it. Marr is reading out a single line and saying "its true" - fine, in what context?
Davey keeps trying to take this back to the actual issue - how do we detoxify the debate? A "trans man is a man" position is not "so women who disagree can go away" - its needing a debate. As I said the other day society will find a balance that works, as it has over gay marriage.
Gay marriage didn't have two valid arguments - no-one really lost out from Gay Marriages being allowed. Yes it may have upset a few people with strongly held believes but it didn't really hurt those who disagreed with it.
The trans debate has a clear issue - trans men wish to self identify as women and use women only venues, women for a lot of valid reasons may not wish men to do so - especially as 1 edge cases for self identified women are sex offenders looking for easier targets / locations. And it doesn't matter if the issue is likely or not, the simple fact it's there creates a big problem for a lot of women.
That isn't a straightforward argument where a simple balance can be created, any decision is going to upset one side or the other.
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
I don't think he is desperate at all. He doesn't like Brexit and he doesn't particularly want to "get over it" which is his right. I mean, let's face it, you don't exactly have to be in favour of "re-join" not to marvel at how thick the people are in this country that 47% of people DON'T think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved!! There are also 22% of people who still believe in it. Staggering! I need to think of a product or service that relies on people's gullibility: would make a fortune!
I actually tend to agree but there is a big leap from thinking brexit caused problems to supporting rejoining
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
MPs who receive threats deserve very public support, not private words of support.
Yes, I agree. I said in an earlier post that Starmer should publicly state that he will not tolerate intimidation of party members or MPs by others within the party; diversity of views must be respected, broad church and all that. But he can do that without getting involved in the substantive issue of trans rights.
The danger for Starmer is if his conference media interviews become dominated by Rosie Duffield and trans rights any message will be lost
Beth Rigby just said live at the UN that John Kerry has told her the US will step up to Boris's demands
If Biden has outsourced US environmental policy to Boris/Carrie that might actually be quite a good thing - not least because the Trumpist Right would have an absolute meltdown.
The Republicans have not always been anti stopping climate change, Bush 41 signed the UN convention on climate change at the 1992 Rio Summit
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
You both have had a terrible time and a salutary warning about walnut halves, which coincidentally my wife loves to eat
I shall be more careful. I own a Walnut tree, so do consume quite a few!
So do I. Doesn't produce any nuts though. Any advice on how the prune/manage one?
Interesting. Ours just started "fruiting" (is that the right term?) a few years ago and hasn't stopped since. We get hundreds of nuts. I am told it is quite good to be fairly savage with pruning, but we never have been. I planted it myself and it has been there almost twenty years I guess. I am not sure whether they have to cross pollenate, so maybe to do with you not having others in vicinity perhaps?
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Can't you put a net over it?
A whole tree? With squirrels? It's difficult enough having a METAL mesh on a bird feeder with the little sods around.
Obviously doesn't apply to the original walnut tree problem, but I have heard that birds are insensitive to Capsaicin and so liberally sprinking chilli powder on nuts can solve the squirrel problem. My wife hasn't permitted me to try this (I probably wasn't serious in suggesting it as I don't really mind our squirrel visitors anyway).
Probably only humane to provide ajacent water/milk for the squirrels, too, until they get the message
Beth Rigby just said live at the UN that John Kerry has told her the US will step up to Boris's demands
If Biden has outsourced US environmental policy to Boris/Carrie that might actually be quite a good thing - not least because the Trumpist Right would have an absolute meltdown.
John Kerry is Biden's special presidential envoy for climate so his comments reflect Biden
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
MPs who receive threats deserve very public support, not private words of support.
Yes, I agree. I said in an earlier post that Starmer should publicly state that he will not tolerate intimidation of party members or MPs by others within the party; diversity of views must be respected, broad church and all that. But he can do that without getting involved in the substantive issue of trans rights.
The danger for Starmer is if his conference media interviews become dominated by Rosie Duffield and trans rights any message will be lost
Which is exactly what I said above. And that's the last thing he wants as Conference approaches.
Beth Rigby just said live at the UN that John Kerry has told her the US will step up to Boris's demands
If Biden has outsourced US environmental policy to Boris/Carrie that might actually be quite a good thing - not least because the Trumpist Right would have an absolute meltdown.
The Republicans have not always been anti stopping climate change, Bush 41 signed the UN convention on climate change at the 1992 Rio Summit
The American Right now regards the Bushes as more or less a crime family.
Beth Rigby just said live at the UN that John Kerry has told her the US will step up to Boris's demands
If Biden has outsourced US environmental policy to Boris/Carrie that might actually be quite a good thing - not least because the Trumpist Right would have an absolute meltdown.
The Republicans have not always been anti stopping climate change, Bush 41 signed the UN convention on climate change at the 1992 Rio Summit
It would appear though that the Trumpites have taken over the Republican Party, so any promises or policies made or espoused by other than the Orange One are null and void
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
Quick rejoin? I don't think anyone more mainstream than Andrew Adonis is talking about that. Don't worry, it's not going to be on the agenda at the next election.
But.
If the polling on what the UK has done recently is right, then we're entering a curious phase. One where the signature policy of the government is broadly regarded as a mistake, as a policy with overall downsides, as one that makes life for British people worse. (And remember how some people were convinced that the vaccine situation would settle the Brexit debate once and for all? Didn't really happen like that.)
Normally, the national conversation in this sort of situation would be about how we can ameliorate the situation, even if it means something of a climbdown on the original policy. So the poll tax had a slice cut off it, followed by replacement with Council Tax a few years later.
But in this case, that's not happening. It's a curious taboo. And it can't just be a fear of... what, exactly? That at some point in the future, voters who maybe aren't even born yet might take the UK in a different direction?
As I am generally an internationalist, was not in favour of Brexit and love taking my holidays in France, I am feeling slightly guilty about how much I am enjoying the French anger lol.
It is possible to both like the French and also find it amusing when they act so very French.
You can cut and paste Scottish for French so easily there...
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
You both have had a terrible time and a salutary warning about walnut halves, which coincidentally my wife loves to eat
I shall be more careful. I own a Walnut tree, so do consume quite a few!
So do I. Doesn't produce any nuts though. Any advice on how the prune/manage one?
Interesting. Ours just started "fruiting" (is that the right term?) a few years ago and hasn't stopped since. We get hundreds of nuts. I am told it is quite good to be fairly savage with pruning, but we never have been. I planted it myself and it has been there almost twenty years I guess. I am not sure whether they have to cross pollenate, so maybe to do with you not having others in vicinity perhaps?
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Can't you put a net over it?
A whole tree? With squirrels? It's difficult enough having a METAL mesh on a bird feeder with the little sods around.
Obviously doesn't apply to the original walnut tree problem, but I have heard that birds are insensitive to Capsaicin and so liberally sprinking chilli powder on nuts can solve the squirrel problem. My wife hasn't permitted me to try this (I probably wasn't serious in suggesting it as I don't really mind our squirrel visitors anyway).
Probably only humane to provide ajacent water/milk for the squirrels, too, until they get the message
I'd salt the water.
Edit: no, not really. But it did cross my mind very briefly.
As apparently its still a topic I have now watched Marr from Sunday. Davey points out that he has no involvement in complaint cases and doesn't know anything about it. Marr is reading out a single line and saying "its true" - fine, in what context?
Davey keeps trying to take this back to the actual issue - how do we detoxify the debate? A "trans man is a man" position is not "so women who disagree can go away" - its needing a debate. As I said the other day society will find a balance that works, as it has over gay marriage.
He needs to address his ultras, with whom the party is too heavily aligned imo.
It will be interesting to see what the LDs in Scotland do on the latest Sturgeon trans legislation.
IMO the LDs are losing some of their liberality. I pointed out on LDV yesterday that Macron's suspension of 3000 Health Workers was rather illiberal, and the response was quite sharp in terms of "right to be treated by a vaccinated worker" - rather than a clash of liberal principles.
Just about to ask about the vanishing of the "10 year banned" individual from LDV, as I would have expected them to be a forum for debate.
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
MPs who receive threats deserve very public support, not private words of support.
Yes, I agree. I said in an earlier post that Starmer should publicly state that he will not tolerate intimidation of party members or MPs by others within the party; diversity of views must be respected, broad church and all that. But he can do that without getting involved in the substantive issue of trans rights.
The danger for Starmer is if his conference media interviews become dominated by Rosie Duffield and trans rights any message will be lost
Starmer was happy enough to sit on his hands in a Shadow Cabinet for three years - as anti-Semitism ran rife in the party all round him. You shouldn't have any expectation of him making a stand on internal nastiness around trans rights.
Sunday and Monday have both been a bit disappointing.
Hopefully, a blip.
I think you need to know the following:
Infection rates amongst the
i) Unvaccinated, not previously infected ii) Vaccinated, not previously infected iii) Unvaxxed, previously infected iv) Vaxxed, previously infected
As infections move people from group i -> iii and ii -> iv; and vaccinations move people from group i -> ii and iii -> iv
You can correctly set up and solve the PDEs to determine what might happen.
If the infection rate in group (iv) is high then obviously it's never going away no matter what you do. I expect most people in the UK are group ii still though.
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
You both have had a terrible time and a salutary warning about walnut halves, which coincidentally my wife loves to eat
I shall be more careful. I own a Walnut tree, so do consume quite a few!
So do I. Doesn't produce any nuts though. Any advice on how the prune/manage one?
Interesting. Ours just started "fruiting" (is that the right term?) a few years ago and hasn't stopped since. We get hundreds of nuts. I am told it is quite good to be fairly savage with pruning, but we never have been. I planted it myself and it has been there almost twenty years I guess. I am not sure whether they have to cross pollenate, so maybe to do with you not having others in vicinity perhaps?
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Just picking up some comments on the topic of my header from previous posts, as relevant here.
@JosiasJessop - "Indeed, there is a tendency to talk of the threat some trans people are to women, e.g. in jail, and then ignore the much greater threats trans people suffer. I posted figures the other day for the number of assaults on trans people in prison, and it's far greater than the other way."
Sorry to repeat this but the threat that concerns women is not, primarily, from people who are genuinely suffering from dysphoria. But from men who will, without any sort of medical diagnosis, claim to be trans and thereby get access. This point keeps being missed but it is key to the concerns.
The number of transwomen killed in the U.K. prior to 2016 was one a year. They were not killed by women Since 2016 there have been no murders of transwomen in the U.K. According to the ONS, the risks of being killed if you are a transwoman are no higher than for the average person. About 188 women are killed in the U.K. every year and the overwhelming majority of them are killed by men.
Now of course this does not mean that the risk is from those medically diagnosed with gender dysphoria. But the whole point of self-ID is not to require any medical diagnosis and this therefore means that any man can claim to be a woman. Given the rate of male violence against women - not just murder - but also sexual assault (look again at those allegedly transpeople in prison and the offences they have committed) this does put women at risk. You cannot tell the difference between a man with a penis who is a sexual predator and a man with a penis who believes he is a woman. So you have to keep both out if you are genuine in wanting to reduce the risk to women.
As for assault, the number of sexual assaults on women by men is far far higher than the number of assaults on transwomen by men, let alone by women.
Husband still unable to swallow. Or eat. Even taking the pills - cut in half - is painful. And now specks of blood, presumably from the injury, are being coughed up.
So he's going to try and get an ENT referral via his GP.
Who knew walnut halves could be so dangerous!
You both have had a terrible time and a salutary warning about walnut halves, which coincidentally my wife loves to eat
I shall be more careful. I own a Walnut tree, so do consume quite a few!
So do I. Doesn't produce any nuts though. Any advice on how the prune/manage one?
Interesting. Ours just started "fruiting" (is that the right term?) a few years ago and hasn't stopped since. We get hundreds of nuts. I am told it is quite good to be fairly savage with pruning, but we never have been. I planted it myself and it has been there almost twenty years I guess. I am not sure whether they have to cross pollenate, so maybe to do with you not having others in vicinity perhaps?
I have an absolutely huge walnut tree (at the base it has a large hollow), that produces enormous amounts of nuts, but I never see any of them, other than the ones the squirrels drop from the tree. The b******ds.
Can't you put a net over it?
A whole tree? With squirrels? It's difficult enough having a METAL mesh on a bird feeder with the little sods around.
Maybe he was referring to the squirrel. It might be easier than the tree.
Logically, yes, he might be. But if they are up in the tree anyway?
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
I don't think he is desperate at all. He doesn't like Brexit and he doesn't particularly want to "get over it" which is his right. I mean, let's face it, you don't exactly have to be in favour of "re-join" not to marvel at how thick the people are in this country that 47% of people DON'T think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved!! There are also 22% of people who still believe in it. Staggering! I need to think of a product or service that relies on people's gullibility: would make a fortune!
I actually tend to agree but there is a big leap from thinking brexit caused problems to supporting rejoining
I think the Brexit debacle was the biggest failure of leadership since Lord Cardigan took a ride on his horse at Balaclava. However, I am not in favour of re-joining, not least because I wouldn't blame the remaining 27 for not wanting us. Those that want to re-join will have to make their case.
Quick rejoin? I don't think anyone more mainstream than Andrew Adonis is talking about that. Don't worry, it's not going to be on the agenda at the next election.
But.
If the polling on what the UK has done recently is right, then we're entering a curious phase. One where the signature policy of the government is broadly regarded as a mistake, as a policy with overall downsides, as one that makes life for British people worse. (And remember how some people were convinced that the vaccine situation would settle the Brexit debate once and for all? Didn't really happen like that.)
Normally, the national conversation in this sort of situation would be about how we can ameliorate the situation, even if it means something of a climbdown on the original policy. So the poll tax had a slice cut off it, followed by replacement with Council Tax a few years later.
But in this case, that's not happening. It's a curious taboo. And it can't just be a fear of... what, exactly? That at some point in the future, voters who maybe aren't even born yet might take the UK in a different direction?
BoZo has already announced he wants to fight the next election on a Brexit platform.
Which is interesting given that his fanbois are convinced nobody wants to talk about it ever again...
Beth Rigby just said live at the UN that John Kerry has told her the US will step up to Boris's demands
If Biden has outsourced US environmental policy to Boris/Carrie that might actually be quite a good thing - not least because the Trumpist Right would have an absolute meltdown.
The Republicans have not always been anti stopping climate change, Bush 41 signed the UN convention on climate change at the 1992 Rio Summit
The American Right now regards the Bushes as more or less a crime family.
For now, if they continue to lose presidential elections they might change their mind.
After all it is only the Bushes who have managed to get over 50% of the popular vote amongst all the GOP presidential candidates since Reagan
Weird. Is this weather related, I wonder? Might be worth plotting dewpoint vs change in case numbers (lagged, obvs).
Spread in schools or uni students starting to go back would be my guess. Its quite a jump week on week, but just have to wait and see.
Might be something, might be nothing.
I can imagine a fair few Uni students getting tested prior to going back/starting. Our little disease spreaders arrive this week (spread out) and start next. Fun times ahead!
From the obituary of Sir Clive Sinclair (Guardian):
"He and Ann divorced in 1985. In 2010 he married Angie Bowness, a former Miss England beauty queen and pole dancer, 34 years his junior, whom he had met at Stringfellows nightclub in 1996; they divorced in 2017."
Possible a compensation for the C5 experience. I saw one once, going past the Co-Op in March. (The town, not the month).
Thanks Cyclefree for your well argued header and to be honest trans is not a subject I comment on normally, but Ed Davey's interview yesterday, when he was asked why a female activist had been banned by the lib dems for 10 years, he had no response.
Today we hear Daisy Cooper is now to refer to breast feeding as chest feeding
The speaker condemns the fact Rosie Duffield is frightened to attend labour's conference and the SNP have published proposed changes to Scots law on this subject
Just why have the left got in this mess and the conservatives are right to keep out of the subject
I very much support Rishi to take over from Boris but I would equally be pleased to see Liz Truss succeed
I don't very much care who leads the Tories so long as they are well away from 10 Downing Street.
I second this. These Tories were elected to do Brexit and kill Corbyn, done and done, plus as it turns out grapple with a pandemic, also done, and there's nothing left now, they're spent. They've become just a vehicle for Boris Johnson, with sole purpose to enable his baleful dominion of posturing, clowning, soundbites, culture war dog-whistle, shallow nationalism, pork barrel, dishonesty and incompetence. They've been in since 2010, too, in one form or another, and that is long enough. It's time for a spell in Opposition. They'd benefit from this and so would we.
Exclusive: @EU_Commission President @vonderleyen reacts to the AUKUS fallout. “One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable,” she tells me. “We want to know what happened and why.”
Full interview airs at 7pCET @CNNi and tonight @PBS (listings vary).
Weird. Is this weather related, I wonder? Might be worth plotting dewpoint vs change in case numbers (lagged, obvs).
Spread in schools or uni students starting to go back would be my guess. Its quite a jump week on week, but just have to wait and see.
Might be something, might be nothing.
I can imagine a fair few Uni students getting tested prior to going back/starting. Our little disease spreaders arrive this week (spread out) and start next. Fun times ahead!
Scotland saw a similar jump just before return tio school, attributed to the same phenomenon. But I do hope it is not a long lasting jump at present, mobile petri dishes or not.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 3h I see #TransWomenAreWomen is trending. Trans women are trans women - biological males living as women. They are not a subset of women.
Adult human females are not cis women. We are not a subset of women. We are not the vagina variant. We are WOMEN.
Thanks Cyclefree for your well argued header and to be honest trans is not a subject I comment on normally, but Ed Davey's interview yesterday, when he was asked why a female activist had been banned by the lib dems for 10 years, he had no response.
Today we hear Daisy Cooper is now to refer to breast feeding as chest feeding
The speaker condemns the fact Rosie Duffield is frightened to attend labour's conference and the SNP have published proposed changes to Scots law on this subject
Just why have the left got in this mess and the conservatives are right to keep out of the subject
I very much support Rishi to take over from Boris but I would equally be pleased to see Liz Truss succeed
I don't very much care who leads the Tories so long as they are well away from 10 Downing Street.
I second this. These Tories were elected to do Brexit and kill Corbyn, done and done, plus as it turns out grapple with a pandemic, also done, and there's nothing left now, they're spent. They've become just a vehicle for Boris Johnson, with sole purpose to enable his baleful dominion of posturing, clowning, soundbites, culture war dog-whistle, shallow nationalism, pork barrel, dishonesty and incompetence. They've been in since 2010, too, in one form or another, and that is long enough. It's time for a spell in Opposition. They'd benefit from this and so would we.
Depends what replaces them, which is what worries me tbh!
On the header, I think Starmer is determined not to get publicly involved in the sensitivities of the 'trans' debate(s). He knows that as soon as he comments, media coverage will focus for days, if not longer, on what he's said, and will open toxic wounds. He wants the focus to be on the 'big' issues, not peripheral (even if important) concerns. So he's avoiding the debate, just as he's avoiding re-opening Brexit wounds. It's probably good politics. I would hope that he reaches out to Rosie Duffield privately. I suspect he's broadly in support of those advocating pro-Trans + safe spaces for women, as is the current situation.
MPs who receive threats deserve very public support, not private words of support.
Yes, I agree. I said in an earlier post that Starmer should publicly state that he will not tolerate intimidation of party members or MPs by others within the party; diversity of views must be respected, broad church and all that. But he can do that without getting involved in the substantive issue of trans rights.
The danger for Starmer is if his conference media interviews become dominated by Rosie Duffield and trans rights any message will be lost
Starmer was happy enough to sit on his hands in a Shadow Cabinet for three years - as anti-Semitism ran rife in the party all round him. You shouldn't have any expectation of him making a stand on internal nastiness around trans rights.
I thought you promised to go away for a while. Spare us these Tory HQ “talking points”.
Weird. Is this weather related, I wonder? Might be worth plotting dewpoint vs change in case numbers (lagged, obvs).
Spread in schools or uni students starting to go back would be my guess. Its quite a jump week on week, but just have to wait and see.
Might be something, might be nothing.
Taking one day's data and comparing it with another day a week ago, is surely silly. Much better to look at the rolling averages.
In isolation absolutely, but the past few days just starting to show hint of this trend, with a couple of days of significant increases i.e. 20%+ on the previous week and you can see the increase in cases in the younger demographic vs older dropping over past week+. I am certainly not screaming panic yet, could well be nothing.
What is clearer is there is definitely no sign covid is going away any time soon, 25-30k daily cases looks like a baseline we should expect.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1 · 3h I see #TransWomenAreWomen is trending. Trans women are trans women - biological males living as women. They are not a subset of women.
Adult human females are not cis women. We are not a subset of women. We are not the vagina variant. We are WOMEN.
#YouCantBeOffendedByTheTruth
She needs a few bearded men to come along now and mansplain feminism to her
Exclusive: @EU_Commission President @vonderleyen reacts to the AUKUS fallout. “One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable,” she tells me. “We want to know what happened and why.”
Full interview airs at 7pCET @CNNi and tonight @PBS (listings vary).
From memory the virus has run into resistance via vaccination with older age groups, and is starting to 'clear out' unvaccinated kids from at least the pool of serological naivety.
Those that want to re-join will have to make their case.
When we are once again the sick man of Europe, which may be by Christmas, the case will make itself.
I think you may be engaging in hyperbole. My guess is we will not be the sick man of Europe, nor will we be the Britain envisioned by the swivel eyed true believers of Brexit. We will probably be somewhere in between.
Exclusive: @EU_Commission President @vonderleyen reacts to the AUKUS fallout. “One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable,” she tells me. “We want to know what happened and why.”
Full interview airs at 7pCET @CNNi and tonight @PBS (listings vary).
From memory the virus has run into resistance via vaccination with older age groups, and is starting to 'clear out' unvaccinated kids from at least the pool of serological naivety.
See below.
The 15-19 group is heading down to join the vaccinated groups with respect to cases. Rates are falling except for those under 14.
Weird. Is this weather related, I wonder? Might be worth plotting dewpoint vs change in case numbers (lagged, obvs).
Spread in schools or uni students starting to go back would be my guess. Its quite a jump week on week, but just have to wait and see.
Might be something, might be nothing.
Taking one day's data and comparing it with another day a week ago, is surely silly. Much better to look at the rolling averages.
In isolation absolutely, but the past few days just starting to show hint of this trend, with a couple of days of significant increases i.e. 20%+ on the previous week and you can see the increase in the yoinger demographic vs older over past week or so. I am certainly not screaming panic yet, could well be nothing.
What is clearer is there is definitely no sign covid is going away any time soon, 25-30k daily cases looks like a baseline we should expect.
The problem with using weekend reporting is that there is variation in the reporting delay. Hence Murder Tuesday when the reporting gets updated......
Those that want to re-join will have to make their case.
When we are once again the sick man of Europe, which may be by Christmas, the case will make itself.
I think you may be engaging in hyperbole. My guess is we will not be the sick man of Europe, nor will we be the Britain envisioned by the swivel eyed true believers of Brexit. We will probably be somewhere in between.
Now now - you mustn't dash his hopes or he'll post another load of fake Covid stats!
Weird. Is this weather related, I wonder? Might be worth plotting dewpoint vs change in case numbers (lagged, obvs).
Spread in schools or uni students starting to go back would be my guess. Its quite a jump week on week, but just have to wait and see.
Might be something, might be nothing.
Taking one day's data and comparing it with another day a week ago, is surely silly. Much better to look at the rolling averages.
In isolation absolutely, but the past few days just starting to show hint of this trend, with a couple of days of significant increases i.e. 20%+ on the previous week and you can see the increase in the yoinger demographic vs older over past week or so. I am certainly not screaming panic yet, could well be nothing.
What is clearer is there is definitely no sign covid is going away any time soon, 25-30k daily cases looks like a baseline we should expect.
The problem with using weekend reporting is that there is variation in the reporting delay. Hence Murder Tuesday when the reporting gets updated......
Yes, as I say, I am not placing a huge amount of weight in it just yet, just saying their might be a hint there of something, at very least covid case levels have stopped dropping.
In response to @kinabalu - "I'd start with this question: What should the balance be between self-ID and medical certification in the process for changing gender?
Then based on the answer to this proceed to 2 more:
- What medical and other resource is required to make the process humane and efficient? - On what grounds should female only activities and spaces be able to exclude transwomen?"
I think this structure can generate a good debate and a good policy for any political party."
This is a not bad approach. And my answer to the first question is this.
- There is nothing to stop any man calling himself a female name or dressing in women's clothes. There is absolutely no reason for the law to get involved at all. - If gender dysphoria is a medical condition, then before someone can claim to suffer from it, there must be a medical diagnosis. We do not permit people to declare themselves suffering any other sort of medical condition without diagnosis. Why should this be an exception? - If transition is the answer to for an individual with this condition - and note that it is often not the answer, especially for children - then once transition has happened, a gender recognition certificate can be given. - The medical and other resources available to those suffering from this condition are very poor. The waiting times are very long indeed. This does cause suffering to people needing help. THIS is where the focus should be - on increasing the resources and reducing waiting times and providing support and help in the interim. It is notable that this is not what the trans activists are campaigning about. - It is not for women to justify why they need female-only spaces. This should be the default assumption. The burden should be the other way around. Are there any circumstances when people born male should be given access to female-only spaces and female-only sports. And my answer is only for those who have fully transitioned (and not even for those in the case of sport, because of the irreversible effects of puberty in a male). - So women have to right to loos, refuges, changing rooms, sport, single sex wards, intimate care being provided by a woman, rape counselling by a woman, female only prisons etc. If they wish to allow a man in, that is their choice not that of the man. In no circumstances should a man or transwoman guilty of offences against women, girls and children be allowed into a female-only space.
Those that want to re-join will have to make their case.
When we are once again the sick man of Europe, which may be by Christmas, the case will make itself.
I think you may be engaging in hyperbole. My guess is we will not be the sick man of Europe, nor will we be the Britain envisioned by the swivel eyed true believers of Brexit. We will probably be somewhere in between.
Now now - you mustn't dash his hopes or he'll post another load of fake Covid stats!
Yes, but I still defend his right to keep reminding everyone that Brexit is a pile of shit. By the way, did you know, Brexit IS a pile of shit!
I cannot believe it is a serious threat, since it would be asking the closest partners to screw themselves over without even fixing the issue France are mad about.
So it's performative.
As if that will bother them , they will put the boot in and deservedly so. They now know how sleekit and creepy the Aussies are and that they lie through their teeth and break promises so why sign up to a deal they are liable to welch on.
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
I'll try again. Think of Brexit as a massive and brave personal decision, like, say, selling your home, buying a derelict new house, with the intention of totally doing it up, because it has great potential
A close relative of mine did this in Cornwall. Found a really grotty rundown six bedroom house being used as temporary shelter for migrant workers. He saw the potential (location, sea views, etc), and bought it; many of us thought he was mad. We continued to think he was mad as the refurb began, the house was so awful his family had to camp in the garden, then slowly expanded as they revamped room after room. SLOWLY
If you'd asked them, six months into the project, as they discovered dry rot in the basement and rats in the attic, whether the move was - so far - net negative or net positive, he and his family would have ruefully admitted: net negative. They were shivering without power, and eating takeaway pizza
Now, five years later, they live in a large, stunning house with a fantastic garden, in a great location, with glorious views of the sea. They probably spent £300k on the house, £300k on the refurb, it must be worth £1.5m now, if not a lot more. They doubled their money, easily, and they adore their house
Brexit is like that. Like buying a shitty house, but seeing the potential. Asking opinions halfway through the move is basically pointless
I don't spend much time chasing up opinion poll results but I believe that current opinion, as measured by reasonable polling companies, is that while Rejoin does not yet have a majority, having left is considered a mistake.
New polling for B4B. 53% think Brexit has created more problems than it has solved. Only 15% think it has solved more problems than it has created.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
I'll try again. Think of Brexit as a massive and brave personal decision, like, say, selling your home, buying a derelict new house, with the intention of totally doing it up, because it has great potential
A close relative of mine did this in Cornwall. Found a really grotty rundown six bedroom house being used as temporary shelter for migrant workers. He saw the potential (location, sea views, etc), and bought it; many of us thought he was mad. We continued to think he was mad as the refurb began, the house was so awful his family had to camp in the garden, then slowly expanded as they revamped room after room. SLOWLY
If you'd asked them, six months into the project, as they discovered dry rot in the basement and rats in the attic, whether the move was - so far - net negative or net positive, he and his family would have ruefully admitted: net negative. They were shivering without power, and eating takeaway pizza
Now, five years later, they live in a large, stunning house with a fantastic garden, in a great location, with glorious views of the sea. They probably spent £300k on the house, £300k on the refurb, it must be worth £1.5m now, if not a lot more. They doubled their money, easily, and they adore their house
Brexit is like that. Like buying a shitty house, but seeing the potential. Asking opinions halfway through the move is basically pointless
Brexit is like buying a perfectly sound house and knocking down a supporting wall to create more space for a “breakfast bar”.
Australia and Germany have signed a declaration of intent about cooperation on military space technology, so it looks like the Germans are giving le strop a Gallic shrug.
Comments
It was just that the two falls we've had since unlockdown have followed warm spells.
Excluding don't-knows, that is a staggering 78% to 22% thinking Brexit has been a net negative. ~AA
https://www.cityam.com/new-poll-53-per-cent-of-uk-thinks-brexit-deal-has-created-more-problems-than-it-solved/
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1439974099510517772?s=21
If a noted sprint finisher is alongside someone who sets off fast but tired in the late stages of a 1500m race with 300m left to race, that doesn’t mean it’s likely to be a close finish.
If we trace back when those being tested on 17 & 18/9 were likely to have been infected, it is plausible that the warm spell ending on 10/9 coincides and this does seem to have been the case before.
There may also be switch in transmission context here, e.g. if wider community cases reduce exponentially and English schools cases rise exponentially, the latter would soon become a much bigger part of the overall trajectory. I rather pre-empted Malmesbury's age charts last week, but there do look to be early signs of that now.
The poll was also by an anti Brexit group
I cannot believe it is a serious threat, since it would be asking the closest partners to screw themselves over without even fixing the issue France are mad about.
So it's performative.
Pah. I have squirrels abounding from branch to branch outside my window and they are a daily delight. I feed them regularly and worry that the birds might take the food first - I see squirrel-proof bird feeders on sale, but I want a bird-proof squirrel-feeder. I do just about understand that some might prefer birds. But how can you prefer to see a pile of inanimate nuts?
Hopefully, a blip.
I refer the (ex) Honourable Gentleman to my previous reply: https://www.survivalsullivan.com/squirrel-recipes/
The trans debate has a clear issue - trans men wish to self identify as women and use women only venues, women for a lot of valid reasons may not wish men to do so - especially as 1 edge cases for self identified women are sex offenders looking for easier targets / locations. And it doesn't matter if the issue is likely or not, the simple fact it's there creates a big problem for a lot of women.
That isn't a straightforward argument where a simple balance can be created, any decision is going to upset one side or the other.
Probably only humane to provide ajacent water/milk for the squirrels, too, until they get the message
Quick rejoin? I don't think anyone more mainstream than Andrew Adonis is talking about that. Don't worry, it's not going to be on the agenda at the next election.
But.
If the polling on what the UK has done recently is right, then we're entering a curious phase. One where the signature policy of the government is broadly regarded as a mistake, as a policy with overall downsides, as one that makes life for British people worse. (And remember how some people were convinced that the vaccine situation would settle the Brexit debate once and for all? Didn't really happen like that.)
Normally, the national conversation in this sort of situation would be about how we can ameliorate the situation, even if it means something of a climbdown on the original policy. So the poll tax had a slice cut off it, followed by replacement with Council Tax a few years later.
But in this case, that's not happening. It's a curious taboo. And it can't just be a fear of... what, exactly? That at some point in the future, voters who maybe aren't even born yet might take the UK in a different direction?
(Take cover......)
Edit: no, not really. But it did cross my mind very briefly.
It will be interesting to see what the LDs in Scotland do on the latest Sturgeon trans legislation.
IMO the LDs are losing some of their liberality. I pointed out on LDV yesterday that Macron's suspension of 3000 Health Workers was rather illiberal, and the response was quite sharp in terms of "right to be treated by a vaccinated worker" - rather than a clash of liberal principles.
Just about to ask about the vanishing of the "10 year banned" individual from LDV, as I would have expected them to be a forum for debate.
Infection rates amongst the
i) Unvaccinated, not previously infected
ii) Vaccinated, not previously infected
iii) Unvaxxed, previously infected
iv) Vaxxed, previously infected
As infections move people from group i -> iii and ii -> iv;
and vaccinations move people from group i -> ii and iii -> iv
You can correctly set up and solve the PDEs to determine what might happen.
If the infection rate in group (iv) is high then obviously it's never going away no matter what you do. I expect most people in the UK are group ii still though.
@JosiasJessop - "Indeed, there is a tendency to talk of the threat some trans people are to women, e.g. in jail, and then ignore the much greater threats trans people suffer. I posted figures the other day for the number of assaults on trans people in prison, and it's far greater than the other way."
Sorry to repeat this but the threat that concerns women is not, primarily, from people who are genuinely suffering from dysphoria. But from men who will, without any sort of medical diagnosis, claim to be trans and thereby get access. This point keeps being missed but it is key to the concerns.
If you want to know the sort of people I am talking about look at this list - of men claiming to be women - and the offences for which they have been convicted. https://twitter.com/historywoman/status/1191453438825181186?s=21
The number of transwomen killed in the U.K. prior to 2016 was one a year. They were not killed by women Since 2016 there have been no murders of transwomen in the U.K. According to the ONS, the risks of being killed if you are a transwoman are no higher than for the average person. About 188 women are killed in the U.K. every year and the overwhelming majority of them are killed by men.
Now of course this does not mean that the risk is from those medically diagnosed with gender dysphoria. But the whole point of self-ID is not to require any medical diagnosis and this therefore means that any man can claim to be a woman. Given the rate of male violence against women - not just murder - but also sexual assault (look again at those allegedly transpeople in prison and the offences they have committed) this does put women at risk. You cannot tell the difference between a man with a penis who is a sexual predator and a man with a penis who believes he is a woman. So you have to keep both out if you are genuine in wanting to reduce the risk to women.
As for assault, the number of sexual assaults on women by men is far far higher than the number of assaults on transwomen by men, let alone by women.
Which is interesting given that his fanbois are convinced nobody wants to talk about it ever again...
After all it is only the Bushes who have managed to get over 50% of the popular vote amongst all the GOP presidential candidates since Reagan
"He and Ann divorced in 1985. In 2010 he married Angie Bowness, a former Miss England beauty queen and pole dancer, 34 years his junior, whom he had met at Stringfellows nightclub in 1996; they divorced in 2017."
Possible a compensation for the C5 experience. I saw one once, going past the Co-Op in March. (The town, not the month).
Full interview airs at 7pCET @CNNi and tonight @PBS (listings vary).
https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1439969457229766662?s=21
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
3h
I see #TransWomenAreWomen is trending.
Trans women are trans women - biological males living as women. They are not a subset of women.
Adult human females are not cis women.
We are not a subset of women.
We are not the vagina variant.
We are WOMEN.
#YouCantBeOffendedByTheTruth
Look at that drop-off....
Looks like the 15-19 are heading down to join the other vaccinated groups.....
Spare us these Tory HQ “talking points”.
What is clearer is there is definitely no sign covid is going away any time soon, 25-30k daily cases looks like a baseline we should expect.
The Australians should just pull out of the EU trade talks.
From memory the virus has run into resistance via vaccination with older age groups, and is starting to 'clear out' unvaccinated kids from at least the pool of serological naivety.
See new Tweets
Conversation
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Westminster Voting Intention (20 Sept):
Conservative 41% (+2)
Labour 35% (–)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
Green 7% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 3% (-2)
Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 13 Sept
Telegraph blog
Item 6 of my GE 2023 Known Unknowns header at start of month:
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/09/03/known-unknowns-the-general-election-2023-4/
And she exudes superficiality and insincerity.
The 15-19 group is heading down to join the vaccinated groups with respect to cases. Rates are falling except for those under 14.
I hope it isn’t astroturfing from our resident Tory apologists.
Then based on the answer to this proceed to 2 more:
- What medical and other resource is required to make the process humane and efficient?
- On what grounds should female only activities and spaces be able to exclude transwomen?"
I think this structure can generate a good debate and a good policy for any political party."
This is a not bad approach. And my answer to the first question is this.
- There is nothing to stop any man calling himself a female name or dressing in women's clothes. There is absolutely no reason for the law to get involved at all.
- If gender dysphoria is a medical condition, then before someone can claim to suffer from it, there must be a medical diagnosis. We do not permit people to declare themselves suffering any other sort of medical condition without diagnosis. Why should this be an exception?
- If transition is the answer to for an individual with this condition - and note that it is often not the answer, especially for children - then once transition has happened, a gender recognition certificate can be given.
- The medical and other resources available to those suffering from this condition are very poor. The waiting times are very long indeed. This does cause suffering to people needing help. THIS is where the focus should be - on increasing the resources and reducing waiting times and providing support and help in the interim. It is notable that this is not what the trans activists are campaigning about.
- It is not for women to justify why they need female-only spaces. This should be the default assumption. The burden should be the other way around. Are there any circumstances when people born male should be given access to female-only spaces and female-only sports. And my answer is only for those who have fully transitioned (and not even for those in the case of sport, because of the irreversible effects of puberty in a male).
- So women have to right to loos, refuges, changing rooms, sport, single sex wards, intimate care being provided by a woman, rape counselling by a woman, female only prisons etc. If they wish to allow a man in, that is their choice not that of the man. In no circumstances should a man or transwoman guilty of offences against women, girls and children be allowed into a female-only space.
So Boris back to majority territory with Redfield at least, albeit with a reduced majority on 2019
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=3&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
A close relative of mine did this in Cornwall. Found a really grotty rundown six bedroom house being used as temporary shelter for migrant workers. He saw the potential (location, sea views, etc), and bought it; many of us thought he was mad. We continued to think he was mad as the refurb began, the house was so awful his family had to camp in the garden, then slowly expanded as they revamped room after room. SLOWLY
If you'd asked them, six months into the project, as they discovered dry rot in the basement and rats in the attic, whether the move was - so far - net negative or net positive, he and his family would have ruefully admitted: net negative. They were shivering without power, and eating takeaway pizza
Now, five years later, they live in a large, stunning house with a fantastic garden, in a great location, with glorious views of the sea. They probably spent £300k on the house, £300k on the refurb, it must be worth £1.5m now, if not a lot more. They doubled their money, easily, and they adore their house
Brexit is like that. Like buying a shitty house, but seeing the potential. Asking opinions halfway through the move is basically pointless
Tenner a month, so what?
and the one after that.
Any energy firm predicting the price of electricity and gas this winter is a fool likely to be losing money.
https://twitter.com/BundeswehrGI/status/1439969260365811712