All polls now have CON leads: LAB’s brief moment in the Sun is over – politicalbetting.com
All polls now have CON leads: LAB’s brief moment in the Sun is over – politicalbetting.com
As conference season begins there’s a new Opinium poll out that has CON back in the lead. This follows the trend of other pollsters that are reporting a little bit of a recovery by the Tories.
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"n this happening came good"
Deeply true, on a profoundly human level
Edit: If so I missed
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1439335902346682375?s=20
https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447
For instance: France did not withdraw its ambassador from Moscow when Putin annexed the Crimea
What a load of petulant, gestural Froggy nonsense. It is all wounded pride, nothing more, nothing less. And they don't seem to realise they make it worse by parading it around
Immense n’importe quoi à Lens où les supporters du Racing envahissent le terrain pour aller en découdre avec les supporters du #Losc HONTEUX
https://twitter.com/francoislaunay/status/1439255904600399878?s=20
https://twitter.com/francoislaunay/status/1439291457152618497?s=20
Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/
When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?
So if Boris and the Tories cannot persuade the Unionists to back them on confidence and supply again, then it is possible Starmer could become PM if they abstain and Starmer gets support from the SNP, the LDs, PC, the SDLP, the Greens and Alliance to become PM
That must be worth something?
Is this evidence of an outlier poll or just one of those things
On current laws, the FTPA, last possible date of GE is 2nd July 2024, so under 3 years.
Only on proposed laws, which fair enough are expected to be in place, could the next GE be as late as 23rd January 2025 - dissolution at 5 years and election 25 days later.
What are the odds on 2025 for the next GE?
This is the key point. As predictors for the result of the next GE, mid-term polls are completely valueless and best ignored, perhaps in favour of clear-eyed surveys of macro-trends (will Labour recover in Scotland? Will the LDs continue to make headway in the Tory shires, etc?)
Or alternatively just hibernate until it looks like Boris feels like going to the country.
The thing I'm trying to get at is this.
Folk have woken up to the nature of the PRC regime. About time too.
But there is ludicrous hyperbole on here about Chinese "threats". These haven't suddenly appeared.
So China has Australia and the Pacific by the economic goolies, and is using its muscle for foreign policy gain?
That's capitalism folks. We did it, the US does it.
They are, first and foremost, interested in the unity of China, and avoidance of domestic chaos. Sure, their idea of China is bigger than most people's. I wouldn't be confident if I were Mongolia. But they aren't going to be invading and annnexing anywhere else any time soon.
Not putting troops overseas is one of the things they learned from the Soviet Union. It is a pointless squandering of lives and treasure.
To avoid unrest, they need to keep the money rolling in, and the people enriched.
That is their aim.
They aren't trying to impose any political system on their neighbours.
They don't want a Greater Pacific Empire. If that were so, why haven't they annexed N Korea? They could have. And they would have got away with it too.
palaceoil pipeline will protect it from Russian aggression as well as an army would?Boris will travel to New York and Washington this week to host a meeting at the UN to galvanise action on climate change ahead of Cop 26
He will then travel to Washington to meet Joe Biden at the White House to discuss climate change and international security
And I assume Raab will take PMQ's !!!!!
'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20
Straight from Yes Minister
At any time they could have chosen to diversify. They chose to keep digging coal and chopping down forests instead.
A shrug of Gallic nonchalance would have been a far better tactic.
The rest of Europe . . . not so much. And "unity" is a myth. That's not Europhobic its a matter of fact.
The floating price just got shit scary.
These companies attract customers in by offering cut-price fixed-term deals, deals which they can no longer afford to honour given wholesale prices have gone through the roof.
Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.
SureStart etc.
Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.
The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
The UK is perfectly happy with the situation however. Edit for clarity, it isn't a UK fiasco. It is an Australian fiasco, and partly an American one as well.
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21
Seems a stretch even for Gove.
He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
F*cking insane levels of claw back.
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
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On my way to university today! Thank you everyone for your support over the last 13 months ☺️♥️
Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.
https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20
French politician speaking on French TV in French, that got translated to English before impressing you
https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1439292733076688900
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuSpZ3_5pTc&ved=2ahUKEwia-PyQxonzAhUR8hQKHUerDa8QFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1dNAvBJLrUrPrk-eF3B5Ml
Not as super confident he'll win as some. There is too much uncertainty around PPC numbers, turnout and regional splits.
Plus motivation. The haters hate him with an unbridled fervour. Yet he's still seen as best PM, and most voters want him to win. Even if very few are passionately in favour.
What Gove should not do is build rabbit hutches all over the Home Counties to pull even more from the north, midlands and seaside towns.
The west of Canada hate him but that has always been the case, even in 2015 when he won a majority Alberta voted strongly for Harper.
If he is re elected it will be Ontario and Quebec again that do it for him.
Personally I would just about prefer O'Toole but could easily live with Trudeau, it is the NDP and the BQ I want to keep out
"Speaker steps in over online threats to female Labour MP Rosie Duffield
Fear forces Rosie Duffield to miss conference"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/speaker-steps-in-over-online-threats-to-female-labour-mp-jnhbrcgv5
Germany does some interesting things in niche areas, but nobody is talking about France, Spain, Italy, etc as "super power" when it comes to this.
There is a reason why Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have big research presences in the UK, plus of course the likes of Deepmind, SecondMind,.etc.
I have maybe naively decided to get back involved in this world....
More seriously, I think organised crime is a massively underappreciated threat to our way of life. You only need to look at southern Italy to understand how it robs a society of the basic building blocks of honesty and trust that it needs to function properly and succeed. And then look at places like El Salvador to understand how it can destroy a society completely.
The French can cope with being humiliated and screwed over by America. Because the USA is much bigger. A superpower. Like China. That’s life. Withdraw the ambassador. It’s a mere gesture but it might sting them
The French can cope with the Australian betrayal (tho it hurts more). The Australians are inferior. A small country with too many kangaroos. Pff! Withdraw the ambassador and try and destabilize their tiny politics
Britain? Brexit Britain? Perfidious Albion? This is their exact rival, and equal. The country next door that constantly infuriates them even as it intrigues them. This stupid foggy island has totally beaten us?? It’s the pain of Sunderland losing to Newcastle. It is a bitter local rivalry. Withdrawing the French ambassador in London would be acknowledging England’s triumph. It is too painful, so instead they resort to cooking metaphors
They don’t need an empire; subservience is fine, I think.
The big pile up of wasted votes was for the Tories in Alberta and the Prairies. Although that looks to have dropped away drastically this time.
Defence Minister Peter Dutton has revealed Australia will consider leasing or buying existing submarines from the United States or United Kingdom in the near future.
@aclennell
https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/1439362850099630081?s=21
Given Elon Musk love of the spectacular, there is something a bit underwhelming just seeing it deploy some parachutes. I want rockets and wings coming out the side and fireworks...and have it land on the back of a moving train.
The French are much less obsessed with us than we are in them, in my experience. It's the Americans that they are obsessed with. That's kind of delusional of course, since the US is far more powerful than they are. But the French are the only country in Europe whose delusions of grandeur match those of the English.
Lefty politics are a sewer, right now