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All polls now have CON leads: LAB’s brief moment in the Sun is over – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 18 in General
imageAll polls now have CON leads: LAB’s brief moment in the Sun is over – politicalbetting.com

As conference season begins there’s a new Opinium poll out that has CON back in the lead. This follows the trend of other pollsters that are reporting a little bit of a recovery by the Tories.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,427
    edited September 18
    As someone who is often quite drunk, I am a fervent admirer of that 2nd point

    "n this happening came good"

    Deeply true, on a profoundly human level
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010
    I think it remains to be seen how much those national trends translate into Scottish losses. I live in a Conservative seat in Aberdeenshire, but my sense locally is that the SNP would need more than just a modest UK swing away from the Conservatives to take it. The sense of "does not apply in Scotland" is still palpable.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,175
    edited September 18
    Do we still do this 'First' thing?

    Edit: If so I missed :)
  • SUNDAY TIMES: Speaker’s anger as extremists terrorise female Labour MP #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1439335902346682375?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,416
    French Minister of Foreign Affairs: “The submarine deal crisis will have repercussions on the future of NATO.”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 18
    Seems like the French football fans have found out about these new plans for world domination...

    Immense n’importe quoi à Lens où les supporters du Racing envahissent le terrain pour aller en découdre avec les supporters du #Losc HONTEUX

    https://twitter.com/francoislaunay/status/1439255904600399878?s=20

    https://twitter.com/francoislaunay/status/1439291457152618497?s=20
  • geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,832
    INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Supermarkets brace for frozen food shortage #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1439338097993527303/photo/1
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,594
    edited September 18

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    I would describe it more in the vein of a master-servant relationship, from my point of view. We have benefitted at times as servants, but we're indentured.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 18
    Gangs are menacing London hospitals - It's only a matter of time before someone is murdered on a ward

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/

    When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    I would describe that more in the vein of a master-servant relationship, from my point of view. We have benefitted at times as servants, but we're indentured.
    Meaningless rhetoric
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,594
    edited September 18
    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    I would describe that more in the vein of a master-servant relationship, from my point of view. We have benefitted at times as servants, but we're indentured.
    Meaningless rhetoric
    It's not rhetorical, simply a calculus of power and brute force, and the implications of that for a relationship. Highly unequal relationships are often unhealthy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    edited September 18
    All polls show the Tories ahead and winning most seats again but most yes also show a hung parliament with the DUP (or on current Stormont polling if it transfers to Westminster the UUP and TUV) having the balance of power.

    So if Boris and the Tories cannot persuade the Unionists to back them on confidence and supply again, then it is possible Starmer could become PM if they abstain and Starmer gets support from the SNP, the LDs, PC, the SDLP, the Greens and Alliance to become PM
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,954

    French Minister of Foreign Affairs: “The submarine deal crisis will have repercussions on the future of NATO.”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447

    France has effectively been out of NATO for 43 years since it was founded (1966 - 2009) and in it for only 29 years (1949 - 1966 & 2009 - 2021). I am not sure they are as important as they think they are.
    When it comes to SELF-importance, on the other hand, they are undisputed world champions ...
  • Leon said:

    French Minister of Foreign Affairs: “The submarine deal crisis will have repercussions on the future of NATO.”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447

    It's just been pointed out on Twitter how rarely France "withdraws ambassadors"

    For instance: France did not withdraw its ambassador from Moscow when Putin annexed the Crimea

    What a load of petulant, gestural Froggy nonsense. It is all wounded pride, nothing more, nothing less. And they don't seem to realise they make it worse by parading it around
    But @Roger and @kinabalu are so impressed by their wit.

    That must be worth something?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598

    Gangs are menacing London hospitals - It's only a matter of time before someone is murdered on a ward

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/

    When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?

    Jeez. Bleak. Reads like a lost script from The Wire.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 18

    Gangs are menacing London hospitals - It's only a matter of time before someone is murdered on a ward

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/

    When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?

    Jeez. Bleak. Reads like a lost script from The Wire.
    Its a good job that the top bod in the MET fills everybody full of confidence....
  • On topic I noticed Yougov that gave labour the lead suddenly reversed it to +6 for the conservatives giving them a 3% lead

    Is this evidence of an outlier poll or just one of those things
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968

    French Minister of Foreign Affairs: “The submarine deal crisis will have repercussions on the future of NATO.”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447

    France has effectively been out of NATO for 43 years since it was founded (1966 - 2009) and in it for only 29 years (1949 - 1966 & 2009 - 2021). I am not sure they are as important as they think they are.
    If the US remains committed to keeping a substantial troop presence in Europe they are not so important, if not France are vital in order for NATO to be able to contain Putin
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,682
    Is Wikipedia's understanding correct:

    On current laws, the FTPA, last possible date of GE is 2nd July 2024, so under 3 years.

    Only on proposed laws, which fair enough are expected to be in place, could the next GE be as late as 23rd January 2025 - dissolution at 5 years and election 25 days later.

    What are the odds on 2025 for the next GE? :)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,954
    "Of course the final date for the election is more than three years away and Johnson is giving himself the right to decide when the election shall be without the constraints of the Fixed Term Parliament Act."

    This is the key point. As predictors for the result of the next GE, mid-term polls are completely valueless and best ignored, perhaps in favour of clear-eyed surveys of macro-trends (will Labour recover in Scotland? Will the LDs continue to make headway in the Tory shires, etc?)

    Or alternatively just hibernate until it looks like Boris feels like going to the country.
  • Farooq said:

    I think it remains to be seen how much those national trends translate into Scottish losses. I live in a Conservative seat in Aberdeenshire, but my sense locally is that the SNP would need more than just a modest UK swing away from the Conservatives to take it. The sense of "does not apply in Scotland" is still palpable.

    Farooq said:

    I think it remains to be seen how much those national trends translate into Scottish losses. I live in a Conservative seat in Aberdeenshire, but my sense locally is that the SNP would need more than just a modest UK swing away from the Conservatives to take it. The sense of "does not apply in Scotland" is still palpable.

    Am I the only one that expects Labour to pick up seats from the SNP at the next GE? I expect the SNP not to have moved forward on an Indyref and for Alba to pick up enough votes to split the SNP vote. Also Labour may realise they need policies other than anti Independence and will therefore win back some of their previous voters.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394

    French Minister of Foreign Affairs: “The submarine deal crisis will have repercussions on the future of NATO.”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447

    Indeed. This guy keeps nailing it. You can see why he's got where he has.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,954
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Wikipedia's understanding correct:

    On current laws, the FTPA, last possible date of GE is 2nd July 2024, so under 3 years.

    Only on proposed laws, which fair enough are expected to be in place, could the next GE be as late as 23rd January 2025 - dissolution at 5 years and election 25 days later.

    What are the odds on 2025 for the next GE? :)

    Probably closely correlated to the odds of the Conservaties being heavily behind in the polls throughout 2023 and 2024!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,723
    FPT. Last thought on the PRC.

    The thing I'm trying to get at is this.
    Folk have woken up to the nature of the PRC regime. About time too.
    But there is ludicrous hyperbole on here about Chinese "threats". These haven't suddenly appeared.
    So China has Australia and the Pacific by the economic goolies, and is using its muscle for foreign policy gain?
    That's capitalism folks. We did it, the US does it.
    They are, first and foremost, interested in the unity of China, and avoidance of domestic chaos. Sure, their idea of China is bigger than most people's. I wouldn't be confident if I were Mongolia. But they aren't going to be invading and annnexing anywhere else any time soon.
    Not putting troops overseas is one of the things they learned from the Soviet Union. It is a pointless squandering of lives and treasure.
    To avoid unrest, they need to keep the money rolling in, and the people enriched.
    That is their aim.
    They aren't trying to impose any political system on their neighbours.
    They don't want a Greater Pacific Empire. If that were so, why haven't they annexed N Korea? They could have. And they would have got away with it too.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010
    dixiedean said:

    The thing I'm trying to get at is this.
    Folk have woken up to the nature of the PRC regime. About time too.
    But there is ludicrous hyperbole on here about Chinese "threats". These haven't suddenly appeared.
    So China has Australia and the Pacific by the economic goolies, and is using its muscle for foreign policy gain?
    That's capitalism folks. We did it, the US does it.
    They are, first and foremost, interested in the unity of China, and avoidance of domestic chaos. Sure, their idea of China is bigger than most people's. I wouldn't be confident if I were Mongolia. But they aren't going to be invading and annnexing anywhere else any time soon.
    Not putting troops overseas is one of the things they learned from the Soviet Union. It is a pointless squandering of lives and treasure.
    To avoid unrest, they need to keep the money rolling in, and the people enriched.
    That is their aim.
    They aren't trying to impose any political system on their neighbours.
    They don't want a Greater Pacific Empire. If that were so, why haven't they annexed N Korea? They could have. And they would have got away with it too.

    From previous thread.

    This is as close to my thinking as I'm likely to hear from another person, so +1.
    Just a minor quibble: leveraging intense economic dominance is not capitalism. That's a function of globalisation and is a very strong argument for diversification so nobody is overly dependent on any one country as a supplier or customer.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,682
    Fishing said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is Wikipedia's understanding correct:

    On current laws, the FTPA, last possible date of GE is 2nd July 2024, so under 3 years.

    Only on proposed laws, which fair enough are expected to be in place, could the next GE be as late as 23rd January 2025 - dissolution at 5 years and election 25 days later.

    What are the odds on 2025 for the next GE? :)

    Probably closely correlated to the odds of the Conservaties being heavily behind in the polls throughout 2023 and 2024!
    Tbf, oddschecker has most companies quoting odds for '2024 or later'.
  • Does Germany think its Putin palace oil pipeline will protect it from Russian aggression as well as an army would?
  • Breaking

    Boris will travel to New York and Washington this week to host a meeting at the UN to galvanise action on climate change ahead of Cop 26

    He will then travel to Washington to meet Joe Biden at the White House to discuss climate change and international security

    And I assume Raab will take PMQ's !!!!!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010

    Farooq said:

    I think it remains to be seen how much those national trends translate into Scottish losses. I live in a Conservative seat in Aberdeenshire, but my sense locally is that the SNP would need more than just a modest UK swing away from the Conservatives to take it. The sense of "does not apply in Scotland" is still palpable.

    Farooq said:

    I think it remains to be seen how much those national trends translate into Scottish losses. I live in a Conservative seat in Aberdeenshire, but my sense locally is that the SNP would need more than just a modest UK swing away from the Conservatives to take it. The sense of "does not apply in Scotland" is still palpable.

    Am I the only one that expects Labour to pick up seats from the SNP at the next GE? I expect the SNP not to have moved forward on an Indyref and for Alba to pick up enough votes to split the SNP vote. Also Labour may realise they need policies other than anti Independence and will therefore win back some of their previous voters.
    I'm not expecting a lot of that, but you might be right.
    Problem is Scottish Labour has been in a right state for years now. There is a certain level of decoupling from the UK-wide swings in Scotland, so even if Labour are picking up well in England, I'd expect it to be damped in Scotland. Same with Conservative losses.

    It's difficult to get your head around how different Scotland is, electorally. Corbyn got 32% across the UK and that was regarded as a disaster. The Scottish Conservatives got 25% and that was a relative triumph (albeit lower than 2017).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,394

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    Oh dear. The europhobia spilleth over. Mask not so much slipping now as completely whipped off! Thank goodness I'm immune. Others should be careful though. Two metres.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,870
    On the whole I think China will be somewhat content with the way the Australian subs fiasco is playing out. They won't want Australia to have nuclear subs but as they weren't going to get the submarines until at least the 2030s anyway these will be pushed further to the right into Neverland. In the meantime the French/Australian Pacific security arrangement has been torpedoed without the pretend non target of these measures having to fire a shot.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,497
    edited September 18
    Why are all these small energy companies going bust?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,682
    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    That's you done HY - local government has been abolished ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,723
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    The thing I'm trying to get at is this.
    Folk have woken up to the nature of the PRC regime. About time too.
    But there is ludicrous hyperbole on here about Chinese "threats". These haven't suddenly appeared.
    So China has Australia and the Pacific by the economic goolies, and is using its muscle for foreign policy gain?
    That's capitalism folks. We did it, the US does it.
    They are, first and foremost, interested in the unity of China, and avoidance of domestic chaos. Sure, their idea of China is bigger than most people's. I wouldn't be confident if I were Mongolia. But they aren't going to be invading and annnexing anywhere else any time soon.
    Not putting troops overseas is one of the things they learned from the Soviet Union. It is a pointless squandering of lives and treasure.
    To avoid unrest, they need to keep the money rolling in, and the people enriched.
    That is their aim.
    They aren't trying to impose any political system on their neighbours.
    They don't want a Greater Pacific Empire. If that were so, why haven't they annexed N Korea? They could have. And they would have got away with it too.

    From previous thread.

    This is as close to my thinking as I'm likely to hear from another person, so +1.
    Just a minor quibble: leveraging intense economic dominance is not capitalism. That's a function of globalisation and is a very strong argument for diversification so nobody is overly dependent on any one country as a supplier or customer.
    Well yes. I didn't notice Australia moaning when they avoided any recession of any kind during this century, even after the GFC, due to the huge demand for their primary resources from the PRC.
    At any time they could have chosen to diversify. They chose to keep digging coal and chopping down forests instead.
  • FF43 said:

    On the whole I think China will be somewhat content with the way the Australian subs fiasco is playing out. They won't want Australia to have nuclear subs but as they weren't going to get the submarines until at least the 2030s anyway these will be pushed further to the right into Neverland. In the meantime the French/Australian Pacific security arrangement has been torpedoed without the pretend non target of these measures having to fire a shot.

    It has already been said that the US may supply a sub to be based in Perth and even one of our subs from Barrow could be deployed
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377
    Leon said:

    French Minister of Foreign Affairs: “The submarine deal crisis will have repercussions on the future of NATO.”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1439298901882941447

    It's just been pointed out on Twitter how rarely France "withdraws ambassadors"

    For instance: France did not withdraw its ambassador from Moscow when Putin annexed the Crimea

    What a load of petulant, gestural Froggy nonsense. It is all wounded pride, nothing more, nothing less. And they don't seem to realise they make it worse by parading it around
    Indeed. It's a diplomatic variant of the Streisand effect.

    A shrug of Gallic nonchalance would have been a far better tactic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    That's you done HY - local government has been abolished ;)
    I am a councillor for Levelling Up apparently instead
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 183

    Why are all these small energy companies going bust?

    Sold fixed price contracts to customers and now can’t pay the elevated spot prices, presumably.
  • kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    Oh dear. The europhobia spilleth over. Mask not so much slipping now as completely whipped off! Thank goodness I'm immune. Others should be careful though. Two metres.
    Don't take the piss. There's nothing Europhobic in knowing full well that the USA and the UK (and France when they can be bothered) are the real powers of NATO.

    The rest of Europe . . . not so much. And "unity" is a myth. That's not Europhobic its a matter of fact.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598

    Why are all these small energy companies going bust?

    One of our peers said it was because it was the Northern Rock model: sell at a fixed price, buy on the floating, open market.

    The floating price just got shit scary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377

    Why are all these small energy companies going bust?

    I should have thought that was obvious:

    These companies attract customers in by offering cut-price fixed-term deals, deals which they can no longer afford to honour given wholesale prices have gone through the roof.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,949

    Why are all these small energy companies going bust?

    Have not hedged on wholesale energy prices. Now paying a load more than they are selling it for. Never a position of strength.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,236
    FF43 said:

    On the whole I think China will be somewhat content with the way the Australian subs fiasco is playing out. They won't want Australia to have nuclear subs but as they weren't going to get the submarines until at least the 2030s anyway these will be pushed further to the right into Neverland. In the meantime the French/Australian Pacific security arrangement has been torpedoed without the pretend non target of these measures having to fire a shot.

    The French probably think it’s a fiasco. The rest, probably not.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,358

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    Oh god, please don't call it the "Special Relationship". Even Boris hates that term.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377
    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    That's your government you are mocking, just saying.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598
    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,682
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    That's you done HY - local government has been abolished ;)
    I am a councillor for Levelling Up apparently instead
    You know, if you're serious about levelling up on PB, you're going to have to work out the impeccable logic by which we end up invading the entire Hispanosphere.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    I expect they'll offer a few assisted places at Eton and assume that will do the job.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    I expect they'll offer a few assisted places at Eton and assume that will do the job.
    Latin in Comprehensives
  • HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    I expect they'll offer a few assisted places at Eton and assume that will do the job.
    Latin in Comprehensives
    The sine qua non of levelling up, surely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,377

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
    Not in itself, but what is your solution?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
    I'll wager Gove gets nowhere near the poverty reduction in the North that Blair/Brown managed.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,870
    edited September 18
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    On the whole I think China will be somewhat content with the way the Australian subs fiasco is playing out. They won't want Australia to have nuclear subs but as they weren't going to get the submarines until at least the 2030s anyway these will be pushed further to the right into Neverland. In the meantime the French/Australian Pacific security arrangement has been torpedoed without the pretend non target of these measures having to fire a shot.

    The French probably think it’s a fiasco. The rest, probably not.
    Disagree. China probably thinks it's a fiasco and many Australians on the record think so too. I don't think the US is paying attention one way or the other frankly.

    The UK is perfectly happy with the situation however. Edit for clarity, it isn't a UK fiasco. It is an Australian fiasco, and partly an American one as well.
  • Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21
  • HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
    Not in itself, but what is your solution?
    Mine isn't the governments. Mine is slashing taxes on the poorest in society from over 75% so that people get to keep more of their own money and can have opportunities to work hard, progress and move up with their lives rather than being dependent upon the State.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    I expect they'll offer a few assisted places at Eton and assume that will do the job.
    Latin in Comprehensives
    Can someone explain how Gove can solve the housing mess (a 4-d chess problem that has defeated dozens of cabinet ministers) and also organize trying to work out what the feck 'levelling up' means?

    Seems a stretch even for Gove.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    I expect they'll offer a few assisted places at Eton and assume that will do the job.
    Latin in Comprehensives
    The sine qua non of levelling up, surely.
    The UC online forms will all be in latin from 2025.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010
    edited September 18

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
    Not in itself, but what is your solution?
    Mine isn't the governments. Mine is slashing taxes on the poorest in society from over 75% so that people get to keep more of their own money and can have opportunities to work hard, progress and move up with their lives rather than being dependent upon the State.
    When you free people from dependence on the state, some flourish and some die.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,236
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    On the whole I think China will be somewhat content with the way the Australian subs fiasco is playing out. They won't want Australia to have nuclear subs but as they weren't going to get the submarines until at least the 2030s anyway these will be pushed further to the right into Neverland. In the meantime the French/Australian Pacific security arrangement has been torpedoed without the pretend non target of these measures having to fire a shot.

    The French probably think it’s a fiasco. The rest, probably not.
    Disagree. China probably thinks it's a fiasco and many Australians on the record think so too. I don't think the US is paying attention one way or the other frankly.

    The UK is perfectly happy with the situation however. Edit for clarity, it isn't a UK fiasco. It is an Australian fiasco, and partly an American one as well.
    The original contract sounded like a fiasco, they wouldn’t do something like this if there wasn’t a serious problem. And China might view Australia getting a considerable advancement in technology a fiasco, but it’s probably not the fiasco you had in mind.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
    Not in itself, but what is your solution?
    Mine isn't the governments. Mine is slashing taxes on the poorest in society from over 75% so that people get to keep more of their own money and can have opportunities to work hard, progress and move up with their lives rather than being dependent upon the State.
    When you free people from dependence on the state, some flourish and some die.
    I'd still have support available from the State, I'd just have a ladder available where those who can are encouraged to work and flourish and be better off. Instead of taking the ladder away which is done at the moment with 75%+ tax rates.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    Spending tons of money isn't the solution.
    Not in itself, but what is your solution?
    Mine isn't the governments. Mine is slashing taxes on the poorest in society from over 75% so that people get to keep more of their own money and can have opportunities to work hard, progress and move up with their lives rather than being dependent upon the State.
    No argument from me over the benefit/tax trap. Needs fixing.

    F*cking insane levels of claw back.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 1,010
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    Plus he speaks French
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    I should point out my sister met him at the D Day celebrations she was participating in a few years ago and found him very charismatic in person
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,598

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    12h
    On my way to university today! Thank you everyone for your support over the last 13 months ☺️♥️
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    Plus he speaks French
    Yes, also pivotal in Quebec
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,490
    The EU doesn't have a single university ranked in the World's top twenty....

    Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.


    https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,723
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    He is a heavyweight who gives off the impression of being a bit of a lightweight. This is a dangerous combination.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuSpZ3_5pTc&ved=2ahUKEwia-PyQxonzAhUR8hQKHUerDa8QFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1dNAvBJLrUrPrk-eF3B5Ml

    Not as super confident he'll win as some. There is too much uncertainty around PPC numbers, turnout and regional splits.
    Plus motivation. The haters hate him with an unbridled fervour. Yet he's still seen as best PM, and most voters want him to win. Even if very few are passionately in favour.
  • @kinabalu

    French politician speaking on French TV in French, that got translated to English before impressing you

    https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1439292733076688900
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,236

    The EU doesn't have a single university ranked in the World's top twenty....

    Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.


    https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20

    Just a hunch, but I think they cover those topics in the top twenty universities.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hold the front page

    'The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government will become the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities'
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1439341124439707655?s=20

    Straight from Yes Minister

    Desperate.

    Blair spent inordinate amounts of time on inequality, poverty, child poverty, distressed communities, social cohesion and so on. Tons of money. Tons of time. Tons of ministerial focus. Delivery units. The whole caboodle.

    SureStart etc.

    Even with all that it was bloody hard to do.

    The Tories shredded the whole lot under Cameron. Gove will have no idea how to start again.
    I expect they'll offer a few assisted places at Eton and assume that will do the job.
    Latin in Comprehensives
    Can someone explain how Gove can solve the housing mess (a 4-d chess problem that has defeated dozens of cabinet ministers) and also organize trying to work out what the feck 'levelling up' means?

    Seems a stretch even for Gove.
    Gove should refurbish old dwellings and build new houses, and perhaps even new towns, up north. This would provide jobs and incomers would stimulate new economic activity. A virtuous circle. Levelling up and new housing!

    What Gove should not do is build rabbit hutches all over the Home Counties to pull even more from the north, midlands and seaside towns.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    edited September 18
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    He is a heavyweight who gives off the impression of being a bit of a lightweight. This is a dangerous combination.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuSpZ3_5pTc&ved=2ahUKEwia-PyQxonzAhUR8hQKHUerDa8QFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1dNAvBJLrUrPrk-eF3B5Ml

    Not as super confident he'll win as some. There is too much uncertainty around PPC numbers, turnout and regional splits.
    Plus motivation. The haters hate him with an unbridled fervour. Yet he's still seen as best PM, and most voters want him to win. Even if very few are passionately in favour.
    He is tough but no intellectual.

    The west of Canada hate him but that has always been the case, even in 2015 when he won a majority Alberta voted strongly for Harper.

    If he is re elected it will be Ontario and Quebec again that do it for him.

    Personally I would just about prefer O'Toole but could easily live with Trudeau, it is the NDP and the BQ I want to keep out
  • The EU doesn't have a single university ranked in the World's top twenty....

    Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.


    https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20

    PMSL 😂
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439

    On topic I noticed Yougov that gave labour the lead suddenly reversed it to +6 for the conservatives giving them a 3% lead

    Is this evidence of an outlier poll or just one of those things

    The Labour lead was an outlier.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,723
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    Plus he speaks French
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Maybe not just a pretty face (or bad caller of GEs)

    https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1439346791724593156?s=21

    Trudeau has actually had a relatively good campaign despite suggestions to the contrary, I expect him to win most seats again on Monday even if he still falls short of the majority he called the election to try and get.

    He is no heavyweight but it is undeniable he is likeable with lots of charisma and that is pivotal to winning elections
    Plus he speaks French
    As a first language. So, more correct to say plus he speaks English.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439
    Totally unacceptable that this should happen to Labour MP for Canterbury Rosie Duffield.

    "Speaker steps in over online threats to female Labour MP Rosie Duffield
    Fear forces Rosie Duffield to miss conference"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/speaker-steps-in-over-online-threats-to-female-labour-mp-jnhbrcgv5
  • Gangs are menacing London hospitals - It's only a matter of time before someone is murdered on a ward

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/

    When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?

    Jeez. Bleak. Reads like a lost script from The Wire.
    Its a good job that the top bod in the MET fills everybody full of confidence....
    Gangs in hospitals and indeed, on the streets. Even more worrying than Cressida Dick running the Met is that the real answer probably lies with Dominic Raab who needs to clear the two or three year backlog in the courts. And drugs should be either decriminalised or deglamorised – we should not have senior politicians queueing up to confess their misspent adulthood or being photographed with cocaine, let alone celebrities. And in the spirit of Elliot Ness, use HMRC (and not just UWOs) to target those at the top.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 18

    The EU doesn't have a single university ranked in the World's top twenty....

    Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.


    https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20

    When it comes to AI / ML....its US, UK, and Canada who produce the bulk of the best academic work. China are extremely quick to understand it, copy and we will not know the full extent of their advances as they are careful what they publish.

    Germany does some interesting things in niche areas, but nobody is talking about France, Spain, Italy, etc as "super power" when it comes to this.

    There is a reason why Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have big research presences in the UK, plus of course the likes of Deepmind, SecondMind,.etc.
  • Gangs are menacing London hospitals - It's only a matter of time before someone is murdered on a ward

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/

    When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?

    Jeez. Bleak. Reads like a lost script from The Wire.
    Its a good job that the top bod in the MET fills everybody full of confidence....
    Gangs in hospitals and indeed, on the streets. Even more worrying than Cressida Dick running the Met is that the real answer probably lies with Dominic Raab who needs to clear the two or three year backlog in the courts. And drugs should be either decriminalised or deglamorised – we should not have senior politicians queueing up to confess their misspent adulthood or being photographed with cocaine, let alone celebrities. And in the spirit of Elliot Ness, use HMRC (and not just UWOs) to target those at the top.
    On this I can completely 100% agree with you.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,439
    The Canadian Liberals are very strong in the 4 biggest cities of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Ottawa. It'll be interesting to see to what extent they pile up votes in those places, which of course won't help in a FPTP system.
  • .

    The EU doesn't have a single university ranked in the World's top twenty....

    Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.


    https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20

    When it comes to AI / ML....its US, UK, and Canada who produce the bulk of the best academic work. China are extremely quick to understand it, copy and we will not know the full extent of their advances as they are careful what they publish.

    Germany does some interesting things in niche areas, but nobody is talking about France, Spain, Italy, etc as "super power" when it comes to this.

    There is a reason why Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have big research presences in the UK, plus of course the likes of Deepmind, SecondMind,.etc.
    That is good but HMG should be slightly worried that any half-way promising British success is immediately bought by an American company.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,968
    edited September 18
    Andy_JS said:

    The Canadian Liberals are very strong in the 4 biggest cities of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Ottawa. It'll be interesting to see to what extent they pile up votes in those places, which of course won't help in a FPTP system.

    It is more the NDP who are strong in Vancouver though yes the Toronto and Montreal suburbs will be key, however Trudeau won enough key swing seats in Ontario and Quebec to win in 2015 and 2019 and on current polling will do so again
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 18

    .

    The EU doesn't have a single university ranked in the World's top twenty....

    Sorry but your tweet is a reflection of the over militarization of the US foreign policy. Most of the major issues of today and tomorrow are not military: Climate change, trade, artificial intelligence, cyberspace etc. In all these fields, the EU is a superpower.


    https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1439314000714604552?s=20

    When it comes to AI / ML....its US, UK, and Canada who produce the bulk of the best academic work. China are extremely quick to understand it, copy and we will not know the full extent of their advances as they are careful what they publish.

    Germany does some interesting things in niche areas, but nobody is talking about France, Spain, Italy, etc as "super power" when it comes to this.

    There is a reason why Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have big research presences in the UK, plus of course the likes of Deepmind, SecondMind,.etc.
    That is good but HMG should be slightly worried that any half-way promising British success is immediately bought by an American company.
    I would say a bigger issue is UK very poor at turning all this research into companies in the first place. I see so many good ideas that could be monetarised and often failure to do so, where as the US incredibly good at this.

    I have maybe naively decided to get back involved in this world....
  • CatMan said:

    geoffw said:

    The Indo-Pacific isn't really the key for Russia, and has never been historically. What he will be interested in is any NATO incoherence in Eurasia, from eastern europe to the caucuses.

    What's changed in NATO other than that the French are peeved? They're still in NATO as are the US and the UK, and for that matter most Eastern European countries in Russia's 'near abroad'.

    That depends on the French and then subsequently European response. If France regards it a statement against military co-operation, trust and resource-sharing, you can be sure it will affect NATO.
    The 💪 in NATO is in AUKUS.

    What floppy discs do you think will be lost from NATO? The frogs have had a hokey-cokey relationship with NATO all along and most of the rest of Europe is shielding behind us and US not contributing.
    Because of German reticence, France is the still key organising European military and diplomatic power. It matters largely because of France's role in both the EU and NATO.
    France have always been semi-detached from NATO, this is nothing new. Plenty of history with de Gaulle and "Jupiter" loves to tread in his footsteps.

    France may be the main European military within the EU, but not the main European figure in NATO. There is a reason the President of the United States knows to call London before Paris - and a close alignment between Washington and London is the last thing either Moscow or Beijing wants.
    The main thing that they want is disunity between different parts of the West. Britain is now marginalised from the Continent, and if France wants to alter the architecture, it will have the ear of Germany and its nascent Mediterranean Union too.
    "Unity" within the Continent is over-rated, it always has been.

    Unity within the Special Relationship means more than the entire rest of the Continent combined.
    Oh god, please don't call it the "Special Relationship". Even Boris hates that term.
    Yes I think it's the only thing that Johnson has ever said that I agreed with.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Totally unacceptable that this should happen to Labour MP for Canterbury Rosie Duffield.

    "Speaker steps in over online threats to female Labour MP Rosie Duffield
    Fear forces Rosie Duffield to miss conference"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/speaker-steps-in-over-online-threats-to-female-labour-mp-jnhbrcgv5

    Also unacceptable is that Starmer has been publicly silent. Is he afraid of upsetting those who are targeting her?
    He was afraid to stand up to antisemites when Corbyn was leader. Why bother getting some moral fibre now?
  • Gangs are menacing London hospitals - It's only a matter of time before someone is murdered on a ward

    https://unherd.com/2021/09/gangs-are-menacing-london-hospitals/

    When are the government going to start to focus on this issue?

    Jeez. Bleak. Reads like a lost script from The Wire.
    Its a good job that the top bod in the MET fills everybody full of confidence....
    Gangs in hospitals and indeed, on the streets. Even more worrying than Cressida Dick running the Met is that the real answer probably lies with Dominic Raab who needs to clear the two or three year backlog in the courts. And drugs should be either decriminalised or deglamorised – we should not have senior politicians queueing up to confess their misspent adulthood or being photographed with cocaine, let alone celebrities. And in the spirit of Elliot Ness, use HMRC (and not just UWOs) to target those at the top.
    I don't know, I would have thought that the idea of people like Gove doing coke can only make it less appealing.
    More seriously, I think organised crime is a massively underappreciated threat to our way of life. You only need to look at southern Italy to understand how it robs a society of the basic building blocks of honesty and trust that it needs to function properly and succeed. And then look at places like El Salvador to understand how it can destroy a society completely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226
    dixiedean said:

    FPT. Last thought on the PRC.

    The thing I'm trying to get at is this.
    Folk have woken up to the nature of the PRC regime. About time too.
    But there is ludicrous hyperbole on here about Chinese "threats". These haven't suddenly appeared.
    So China has Australia and the Pacific by the economic goolies, and is using its muscle for foreign policy gain?
    That's capitalism folks. We did it, the US does it.
    They are, first and foremost, interested in the unity of China, and avoidance of domestic chaos. Sure, their idea of China is bigger than most people's. I wouldn't be confident if I were Mongolia. But they aren't going to be invading and annnexing anywhere else any time soon.
    Not putting troops overseas is one of the things they learned from the Soviet Union. It is a pointless squandering of lives and treasure.
    To avoid unrest, they need to keep the money rolling in, and the people enriched.
    That is their aim.
    They aren't trying to impose any political system on their neighbours.
    They don't want a Greater Pacific Empire. If that were so, why haven't they annexed N Korea? They could have. And they would have got away with it too.

    A buffer zone has served them well for over half a century.

    They don’t need an empire; subservience is fine, I think.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,723
    Andy_JS said:

    The Canadian Liberals are very strong in the 4 biggest cities of Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Ottawa. It'll be interesting to see to what extent they pile up votes in those places, which of course won't help in a FPTP system.

    They didn't last time. Not having as many safe seats is part of the reason their vote is more efficient. And 11 of 24 in Vancouver. 8 Tories, 4 NDP and one indy. So, no better than rest of the nation really in Van.
    The big pile up of wasted votes was for the Tories in Alberta and the Prairies. Although that looks to have dropped away drastically this time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,226

    Why are all these small energy companies going bust?

    Sold long, bought short.
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