Categories
Options
Meeks and Rentoul argue over Davey’s “No deals with CON” – politicalbetting.com
Meeks and Rentoul argue over Davey’s “No deals with CON” – politicalbetting.com
This is a complete misreading. For the foreseeable future, there is no way on earth the Lib Dems can share power with the Conservatives. Labour probably have more common ground with the Conservatives now than the Lib Dems do. https://t.co/tWM7kiFWN3
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Boris will need another majority or DUP support to stay PM
Second thoughts, the DUP stupid enough to do that.
Meeks is wrong, as usual.
What determines a possible coalition is the arithmetic.
So, you should never rule anything out before an election.
What a shame. My current preference would be to vote LD and get an LD/Tory coalition again but if that's not even possible then what's a centre right ex Tory supposed to do?
Ruling out centre right voters who'd be happy to see the LDs potentially moderating the Tory Party seems premature.
Bad news for Labour this.
"Geoff Marshall
@geofftech
Ok, NEW TUBE MAP. What i genuinely can't figure out is who or why though that the "Brewers Droop" was needed. i've changed nothing else here except straighten it out so that there's no curve, and there's plenty of space for it to fit as a straight line. So why curve it?"
https://twitter.com/geofftech/status/1438517847756472333
In the next election there's going to most likely be a larger pool of people who voted Tory in 2019 but are now disappointed, than Labour but are now disappointed (and willing to vote LD).
I would yes prefer it to be a manifesto commitment in 2023/24, whipped if we return to power.
However even if not whipped if the Tories have a majority again or most votes with the DUP I expect it would pass anyway
In these Con/LD marginals most of them can only be won if there is a swing away from the Cons. Each Con voter who goes LD is worth 2 Lab voters doing so.
Not scaring the horses on either side seems logical.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Much better to stick with that philosophy, and allow a free vote on a number of options. 24w, 20w, 12w etc.
Putting anything like what you suggest in a manifesto would be an brave change...
For him better that gamble than gambling on the Union. If he lost then a referendum if it happened would not be his fault.
I think this more detached approach would help them maintain a distinct identity if a hung Parliament occurs, and avoid putting off too many voters from either side.
If the LDs get wholeheartedly into bed as a leftwing party they're potentiay spurning the largest pool of politically homeless voters.
Even if you dislike Boris, I could imagine eg a Truss/Davey coalition could work well.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/17/general-milley-cannot-undermine-civilian-authority-the-us-is-not-a-military-junta
Part of my view on this comes form a slightly different angle; one which might be non-obvious, or even wrong.
It starts with a statement: we are far too precious about life.
Now that's a crass thing to say, so let me elaborate: there are thousands of people who are suffering terribly, and we keep them alive when many do not want to be alive.
Take the case of French footballer Jean-Pierre Adams. He was in a coma for 39 years before he sadly - but perhaps thankfully - died this month. 39 years, perhaps of torture for him, but also for his friends and family. He had very significant damage to his brain, so even if he had miraculously awoken from his coma, what would his quality of live have been like?
We should also remember the case of Terri Schiavo, a young woman with PVS, over whose life a series of court cases were fought. After she was eventually left to die - seven years after the first court case - an autopsy showed that her brain weighed half that of an equivalent woman of her age.
A few lucky people do awaken from multi-year comas. But such occurrences are rare, and the amount of suffering of patients, relatives and friends is immense.
We need to talk about this, personally, as a society, and as a nation. I am not fond of Dignitas, but part of the issue is that Dignitas has to exist because of the laws in other states.
Personally, I am willing to say that if I am in a long-term coma, or if I am in a state where I have a persistently very low quality of life, am in pain, and cannot do many of the things I love - either through illness, accident, or old age - I would rather reach a happy end that continue the suffering of myself, my family, and friends. even if there is a 1% chance of recovering, I think an end would be best. I wish there was a way I could legally say it without outsiders, religious bigots and others interfering.
How does this connect to abortion? Put simply, many of the people who are pro-life would baulk at any assisted suicide or dignity in death laws. And I think a compassionate, humane society really needs such laws. I do not want to give these people such power over my death if I was in such an unfortunate position.
(1): https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/feb/27/jean-pierre-adams-footballer-coma
Of course, that's also probably the cause of this. That background probably makes Davey a bit suspect to those on the Left of the LibDem party.
So why would a man who does not care for the union suddenly care for the union?
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
Besides reject the proposal and he's out. Go for it and he's got the potential to stay on and be the PM who saved the Union. And even if the Scots go, he'll have had a long time in office and David Lloyd George is highly rated as a PM despite agreeing to Irish independence.
This would have a number of other advantages too. It would allow us to get rid of all the child cruelty laws. No parent would dare abuse their kid, knowing that when they reached 21 (18 is too young), then they would have the power of life or death. It would also encourage parents to be generous with the inheritance early, which would help with the housing crisis in the UK. Finally, of course, it would begin to solve the demopgraphic issues that have so plagued the country.
I realise that there are a small number of downsides to this plan - notably the idea that it might disincentivize becoming a parent, but I'm sure we can come up with solutions to that.
The average conservative voter is now more socially conservative than the voters for any Tory government since the Thatcher years, indeed arguably more so as the party now wins more working class social conservatives and fewer middle class liberals than she did.
No reason some of that social conservatism cannot be reflected in government policy beyond Brexit
Of course, if the Tories have 310 seats any alternative government is going to have a pretty hard time of it, especially on English matters.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/abortion-statistics-for-england-and-wales-2020/abortion-statistics-england-and-wales-2020
The scariest statistic, from a brief read through the document.
“In 2020, 42% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous abortions. The proportion has increased steadily from 34% in 2010”
However, there are the rarer cases where someone cannot give consent, e.g. people in PVS or a coma. These cases are simpler, in a way, but also much more morally complex. It's just my view that keeping someone alive in that state is akin to torture.
Demanding utter loyalty on all matters is bad party and person management. People aren't robots and they know at some point they will disagree - having some leeway on social matters mollifies everyone.
"I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs."
No you wouldn't. A Tory government allowed to do what Tory governments do or a chaotic Labour led one ruining things? You'd back the Tory government every time.
"In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour"
Wipe the foam from your mouth and read this again. For "central belt" seats you mean "seats which would just have elected an SNP MP". So you believe that should the SNP secure the thing that SNP MPs were elected to secure, the people who voted for that thing they have just secured will vote for people against that thing in 2027?
You really need to pull back the focus of things you post about. Preferably to wokeists and communists in Loughton or whatever that you can get sorted.
A number of 2010 LD voters did so to see the back of Labour, but I suspect there were as many, at least, tactical Labourites and left of centre LDs who were enraged at jumping into bed with the Cons.
This time, if they were to throw their hand in with Brexit Tories (of which Truss and Sunak are well on board) they would be done for forever.
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous
pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii).
20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic
pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
"In 2016, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or
more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 47% in 2006"
From (PDF):
https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/abortion-stats-2016-commentary-with-tables.pdf
Looks like that was the same in 2019 (PDF):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891405/abortion-statistics-commentary-2019.pdf
When you look at the grounds for NHS granting one, it is almost impossible to get an abortion for any reason other than danger to the mother or the unborn child. I reckon damage to mental health must be a big player - I don’t know anyone who has had an abortion for any other reason than it was inconvenient to have a baby, I guess they must have gone private
Tough, post Brexit the party's core vote is more working class and socially conservative than it has been for decades and it is about time that was reflected by MPs votes too. Ensuring a mild reduction in the abortion time limit is passed to 22 weeks is just the bare minimum needed as well as bringing in the tighter immigration controls we have done, with the points system for all migrants including those from the EU
I get the sense my position is rather unusual.
I think my morality is strongly influenced by having a younger brother with severe disabilities and thinking through such moral issues in relation to him over a long period of time.
I will not support indyref2
If theres support for it they wont need to whip, and by saying it will be free the party wont put off those who might oppose a change from voting for the party in the first place.
Sometimes going easier on matters helps you achieve the goal. Put people off voting Tory by talk of whipping such votes and you might not get enough MPs to do it!
This time round a Scottish Unionist would have the choice of voting LD or Slab - so there is some threat to SCUP seats.
In England, not so sure - it is more a matter of keeping Labour out than anythijng else.
And don't try to claim otherwise as you have explicitly stated many times that you accept other policies that you rejected hours earlier when it becomes party policy.
Edit: not to mention there would be some scandal of a politician being involved in an abortion, in the run up to the vote.
Under the current rules, when is an individual classed as a Tory MP? Is it de facto after a returning officer has announced that they’re the winner of a constituency or is it de jure from when they're sworn in? Indeed, is a Tory leader effectively untouchable between the end of the previous parliament and the start of the next?
A Johnson who can be challenged as soon as he talks to Sturgeon has a very different set of options to a Johnson who cannot and who can present something as a fait accompli.
And the miscarriage /parent groups overlap as do the miscarriage/ childless griups so its hard to draw any sort of conclusions from this data. Its a bit like the "most cases of Covid are amongst the vaccinated" misleading truism in countries with high vaccination rates.
- Hoping to see a LD/Labour coalition (LD tempering some of Brown's more undesirable characteristics)
- To express support for the party, in what I thought was a safe Labour seat
On the second, although more of a natural LD supporter - voted for them in 2005 in a seat they took from Labour and I was even briefly a member around that time, possibly in 2001 too although I honestly cannot remember - I would have likely voted tactically for Labour had I realised it was about to turn into a Lab-Con marginal.
Having said that, I wasn't horrified by either Cameron or the coalition. The main reason I voted Lab in 2015 was because I thought an EU ref might be a bad idea (I was pissed off with LD over the tuition fees debacle and by then, lived in a seat that was more obviously Lab v Con, although not very marginal).
One of the most troubling things for those of us that believe in universal suffrage and free speech is that all nutters have a vote and that they also have the right to demonstrate that it might be best if they were not allowed.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1438844755933282308
IND (Grainge): 34.8% (+34.8)
CON: 30.3% (-9.3)
LAB: 21.7% (-38.7)
IND (Platt): 11.6% (+11.6)
LDEM: 1.3% (+1.3)
IND (Hoban): 0.3% (+0.3)
Seat was held by MIG (Middlesbrough Independent Group) after the death of their councillor who had defected from Labour to MIG after her election in 2019.
As you can see, Labour got beaten into 3rd place. Worth noting that the other independents also ran - MICA (Middlesbrough Independent Councillors Association). MIG are the group who held executive posts under independent Mayor Andy Preston until they all quit and made accusations against him. Preston then replaced them with the competing MICA group.
See - it doesn't all have to be Labour and Tory. Instead you have two competing groups of independents fighting like ferrets in a sack.