Seat was held by MIG (Middlesbrough Independent Group) after the death of their councillor who had defected from Labour to MIG after her election in 2019.
As you can see, Labour got beaten into 3rd place. Worth noting that the other independents also ran - MICA (Middlesbrough Independent Councillors Association). MIG are the group who held executive posts under independent Mayor Andy Preston until they all quit and made accusations against him. Preston then replaced them with the competing MICA group.
See - it doesn't all have to be Labour and Tory. Instead you have two competing groups of independents fighting like ferrets in a sack.
2020 Biden could run on not being Trump and that was enough. 2024 Biden will have to run on his record in office. Also his brain is clearly a piece of shit now so by 2024 you might as well have a cantaloupe with a hair transplant and Ray-Bans.
As Trump will be in jail, that will ensure the field is clear.
And, TBH, a very good thing, too.
No chance Trump will be in jail.
Even if he's guilty, no Jury will be 12 Democrats (and if it were that'd be grounds for appeal surely). And no MAGA is going to convict.
As Trump said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it.
Even as a non American I find the inability to hold him to account for his attempted coup in January deeply troubling.
The American democratic system is broken and becoming more so. The Republicans claiming fraud in the recall election in California before the votes had even been counted was another sign. One of the major parties in the US is no longer signed up to democratic norms. If they lose they have been cheated even in a deep blue state such as California. There is no acceptance of democratic outcomes. This is not a stable situation and Trump is largely, if not exclusively, responsible.
Yep - the US is in a very, very bad place. It is hard to see how things don't get worse there.
Yep.
There is going to eye popping levels of trouble at next POTUS election.
The fabled constitution just about managed to keep Trump in check and eventually out of office without too much violence.
I can't see it being able to cope a second time.
Really sad to see a major democracy die like this through its own internal cancer.
The Republican decision to upset the balance of the Supreme Court and to make it overtly partisan is the big problem.
Would John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett rather have Donald Trump than a democracy though? They've already got the court, he didn't pass anything interesting to conservatives except tax cuts and everybody knows he's a menace, so what's in it for them?
Roe vs Wade. Once you legalise abortion you can then follow the Texas lead and make a woman's body legal sport for men. Once you do that it isn't that far until women's rights really get rolled back. And if we're doing women that way think what will happen to gays, latinos, blacks?
There are plenty of pro life blacks and latinos and plenty of pro life women too and even some pro life gays.
Texas is also one of the few states, mainly southern, where a majority of voters think abortion should be illegal, so if it becomes more restricted there that is partly a reflection of states rights
"States Rights" exist within a constitutional framework - or should do. A state should not have the right to bring back racial segregation, slavery or in this case the middle ages. Their "shop a slag" law makes women sport for predatory "men".
I would have thought abortion on demand is far more likely to do make women sport for predatory men who can have sex without consequence or risk of her getting pregnant.
Restricting abortion to the first 6 weeks of pregnancy is also hardly the middle ages nor is it slavery. Personally I would leave it a little longer and restrict it after 15-20 weeks rather than the 24 we now have in the UK but Texas can make its own mind up
You're batshit crazy.
Pregnancy tests won't reveal a pregnancy until 4 or 5 weeks in. Many women won't realise they're pregnant until past the six week mark!
Heck the moment of conception is about two weeks in. In week one "of a pregnancy" the woman isn't even pregnant yet since the clock starts at last period, not at moment of conception.
So you're really talking maybe one week of eligibility. If you're lucky. Zero for many women.
And if 50% of Texans wanted blacks to be 2/3rds of a person and enslaved?
Women aren't lucky to control their own bodies, it's their human rights.
The unborn child also has rights, precisely the opposite of slavery
No, they don't. The woman has rights, the foetus has rights when it draws it is born and draws its first breath.
Yes they do and certainly the foetus becomes a living, sentient being well before birth. The only question is what time it does
That is a question much discussed in Special Care Baby Units when I had to do which things. I know I 'helped', in a small way, to 'save' a very premature baby, who never developed fully, and is now a somewhat 'challenged' adult.
So still a living, sentient being then
Where do you put quality of life? I know the grandparents and I know the lad's condition has been a source of considerable worry and concern to his parents and to at least one set of grandparents.
I believe in life, full stop.
Define life, please. And not just the biological one of being able to reproduce.
Human life from the moment a foetus becomes a living, sentient being until death must be protected
Sorry, but what is a 'living, sentient being'?
The age at which a foetus became capable of independent life some years ago was less than now.
And rightly so, the current time limit in the UK is well beyond the European average of 12 weeks let alone the 6 weeks Texas now has.
If we get another Tory majority or there is a Tory government supported by the DUP, I would hope the abortion time limit could be reduced to 12-14 weeks from pregnancy at least
You are, seriously, trying to create a situation where a woman doesn't realise she is pregnant before the cut-off time after which she cannot get an abortion.
I certainly think reducing the abortion time lime to 12 weeks at least as is the average across most of Europe, including in Ireland, should be a priority if we get another Tory majority after the next general election or enough seats to form a Tory government supported by the DUP
Wait a minute you (mis)quoted a Texan poll to support their 6-week limit. What about this British poll:
45% of 2010 Tory voters on that poll wanted to reduce the time limit or ban abortion, only 40% to keep the time limit as now or increase it
So you've found a poll from 2012?
And you have deliberately misinterpreted it to try and make it seem to give the opposite result that it actually gives?
Like I said you are so predictable.
Even the cherry-picked poll you link to from 2012 has:
39% in favour of keeping 24 weeks or increasing to above 24 weeks versus 17% in favour of reducing the limit to below 20 weeks (plus 6% banning abortion altogether)
Amongst *2010 Conservative voters* the figures are almost identical: 40% in favour of keeping 24 weeks or increasing 17% in favour of reducing below 20 weeks (plus 7% banning abortion altogether)
So even your cherrypicked poll shows that even amongst Conservative voters a big majority disagree with you, just like I said earlier.
Yes because it actually asked about the issue ie reducing the 24 weeks timeframe, not a generic poll like yours so is therefore more accurate. I doubt views have changed much since.
38% of 2010 Conservative voters wanted to reduce the time limit below 24 weeks and 7% wanted to ban abortion altogether, making 45% altogether to reduce the limit. Only 40% wanted to keep the limit as is or increase it.
You also deliberately ignored the fact 43% wanted to reduce the limit below 24 weeks or ban abortion altogether.
So most voters and most Tory voters wanted to reduce the abortion time limit below 24 weeks, the only question being how far. The key thing is to get the process under way of cutting the time limit, even cutting from 24 weeks to 22 weeks as most voters want would be a start then the process can start on persuading voters to go further
You said you wanted a Conservative government to reduce the limit to 12 weeks or less. Even your 9 year old cherrypicked poll shows that even among 2010 Conservative voters, you are in a small minority.
You are perfectly entitled to your opinion, but it is very much a minority opinion among Conservative voters and the country, and in the context of you massively misinterpreting (as I have shown) Texan polling on abortion to say that women who need an abortion in Texas should "feel lucky that they are allowed to up to 6 weeks", I think it's worth pointing this out.
BTW your poll is not "more accurate". It is framed in a biased way. These are the options:
Increase limit keep at 24 weeks reduce to 22 weeks reduce to 20 weeks reduce to less than 20 weeks ban abortion altogether
If you have trouble seeing the bias here consider the opposite framing:
Have no upper limit Increase limit to more than 28 weeks Increase limit to 28 weeks Increase limit to 26 weeks Keep limit at 24 weeks Reduce limit to below 24 weeks
Despite this biased framing, there is still a majority (excluding don't knows) in favour of having the limit at 22 weeks or above. And a big majority for having the limit at 20 weeks or above. So for you to pretend that this poll in any way whatsoever shows that a majority of 2010 Conservative voters agree with your position is a barefaced lie.
But keep changing the goalposts!
Reminder: I pointed out that a majority of UK adults and Conservative voters disagreed with your position ("reduce the limit to 12 weeks or less"), you then selectively quoted a poll to try and mislead people. You are shameless.
I want to reduce the abortion limit, reducing it to 22 weeks from the current 24 weeks has the support of most voters and would be the start of that process if we get a Conservative majority again at the next general election or the Conservatives have enough seats to form a government with the DUP.
If that's in the manifesto, that rules me voting Conservative out. One step on THAT road is one step to far.
Bye then, off to the LDs where you belong
It's not even in the manifesto yet, bit hasty to clap him out!
He is an abortion on demand social liberal, not a conservative
Social liberals can still vote Tory, and if the tipping point for them is not party policy why throw away their vote? They can hardly be judged as insufficiently committed to the party if it's not party policy.
I and others will be working to ensure it is party policy for the next general election manifesto, as MPs from across the party from Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt want.
Abortion (like capital punishment, gay marriage etc etc) has always been a matter of conscience for MPs. Are you suggesting that a whip should be applied in any future vote?
In general terms, however I believe there is support across the party to reduce the time limit to 22 weeks from 24.
I would yes prefer it to be a manifesto commitment in 2023/24, whipped if we return to power.
However even if not whipped if the Tories have a majority again or most votes with the DUP I expect it would pass anyway
If I were an MP, I’d support a reduction to 22 weeks but the notion that Tory MPs who disagree should be compelled to vote against their conscience is repulsive.
No it isn't, economic legislation is normally whipped, absolutely no reason that some social legislation cannot also be whipped if there is clear consensus of support for them across most of the party
The reason to not whip such matters like economic policy is they are much more likely to be personal and emotive. Theres no reason you couldn't whip everything as a three line whip - they choose not to act that way because it causes more problems than it solves.
Demanding utter loyalty on all matters is bad party and person management. People aren't robots and they know at some point they will disagree - having some leeway on social matters mollifies everyone.
Having whips purely on economic matters suits libertarians who are economically conservative and socially liberal.
Tough, post Brexit the party's core vote is more working class and socially conservative than it has been for decades and it is about time that was reflected by MPs votes too. Ensuring a mild reduction in the abortion time limit is passed to 22 weeks is just the bare minimum needed as well as bringing in the tighter immigration controls we have done, with the points system for all migrants including those from the EU
So now you’ve upset those who want 12 weeks, and have them campaigning against you. Not to mention all the Catholic groups. Much better to keep the free vote on these things, even if we all have our own opinion on where we draw the line - which I suspect, if we did a survey of PB, would cross party lines.
Edit: not to mention there would be some scandal of a politician being involved in an abortion, in the run up to the vote.
No, they would still vote for it, as 22 weeks is a step in the right direction to 12 weeks and still below the current 24 weeks. Votes could then also be held on 20 weeks and 12 weeks on a free vote basis after though those would be less likely to pass
On this site I can think of many more centre right 2019 Con than centre left 2019 Lab voters who are currently politically homeless and could be tempted to go to the LDs.
If the LDs get wholeheartedly into bed as a leftwing party they're potentiay spurning the largest pool of politically homeless voters.
Even if you dislike Boris, I could imagine eg a Truss/Davey coalition could work well.
Totally agree. I don't see how looking as if you are basically planning to be in a Lab-LD-SNP coalition this far out helps win those Blue Wall home counties seats that Liberals should now be after.
I doubt that there will be a LD-anything coalition. This isn't Davey saying he will prop up Starmer, far from it.
Has he said he won't go into coalition with Labour too? Or just that he won't with the Tories?
The heart bleeds for you economically conservative social liberals, having had your own way for most of the Blair and Cameron years (and you voted for both), you now face a choice between a more left of centre Labour party and an increasingly more socially conservative Conservative party that is economically centrist. You may even have to vote LD or stay at home, heaven forfend!
So a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for the Labour Party then? Is that Davey's game.
What a shame. My current preference would be to vote LD and get an LD/Tory coalition again but if that's not even possible then what's a centre right ex Tory supposed to do?
I'd gently remind you that you're not 'Centre Right'. Not even simply 'Right'. You are off the cliff 'Right '. Way beyond the Farage nut-jobs.
I’m broadly pro-choice on abortion and anti-assisted dying.
I get the sense my position is rather unusual.
I think my morality is strongly influenced by having a younger brother with severe disabilities and thinking through such moral issues in relation to him over a long period of time.
I am, broadly, of the same view as you. Generally pro-choice and generally anti-assisted dying.
It seems that a woman should have full control of her body but at the same time goodness only knows who gets to play god by deeming when a foetus is a person (with rights - the vast majority of foeti [?] would unhindered grow to become people).
Likewise assisted dying. I get that people, say, with MND have chosen this option but the dangers of enshrining it in law to me are many and real.
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You are unbelievable
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You really do talk some shite.
"I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs."
No you wouldn't. A Tory government allowed to do what Tory governments do or a chaotic Labour led one ruining things? You'd back the Tory government every time.
"In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour"
Wipe the foam from your mouth and read this again. For "central belt" seats you mean "seats which would just have elected an SNP MP". So you believe that should the SNP secure the thing that SNP MPs were elected to secure, the people who voted for that thing they have just secured will vote for people against that thing in 2027?
You really need to pull back the focus of things you post about. Preferably to wokeists and communists in Loughton or whatever that you can get sorted.
The main reason they went from SLab to SNP is dislike of New Labour and Tory governments, they certainly did not want the SNP propping up Tory governments.
I will not support indyref2
You surely will if it becomes party policy. Indyref1 was party policy too.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
Question: A Tory leadership election is triggered when 15 per cent of Tory MPs write a letter to the 1922 Committee chairman.
Under the current rules, when is an individual classed as a Tory MP? Is it de facto after a returning officer has announced that they’re the winner of a constituency or is it de jure from when they're sworn in? Indeed, is a Tory leader effectively untouchable between the end of the previous parliament and the start of the next?
A Johnson who can be challenged as soon as he talks to Sturgeon has a very different set of options to a Johnson who cannot and who can present something as a fait accompli.
Between the dissolution of Parliament, and the swearing-in after the subsequent election, there are no MPs.
True, but there are party members who have been elected to become MPs, and a party leader who is busy negotiating with other party leaders. There's nothing to stop the members-to-be of the 1922 group-to-be getting together informally and making their collective views known to Mr J so he is in no doublt about their reaction. Whether it is possible for a party leader to be overthrown on a similar timescale I'm not sure, if he is not willing to step down.
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You are unbelievable
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
You will find BigG on most issues the average Tory voter let alone the average Tory member now has more in common with me than you now matter how much you huff and puff.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
Seat was held by MIG (Middlesbrough Independent Group) after the death of their councillor who had defected from Labour to MIG after her election in 2019.
As you can see, Labour got beaten into 3rd place. Worth noting that the other independents also ran - MICA (Middlesbrough Independent Councillors Association). MIG are the group who held executive posts under independent Mayor Andy Preston until they all quit and made accusations against him. Preston then replaced them with the competing MICA group.
See - it doesn't all have to be Labour and Tory. Instead you have two competing groups of independents fighting like ferrets in a sack.
I've always enjoyed competing Independent groups. Just feels like they've missed the point somewhat.
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You really do talk some shite.
"I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs."
No you wouldn't. A Tory government allowed to do what Tory governments do or a chaotic Labour led one ruining things? You'd back the Tory government every time.
"In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour"
Wipe the foam from your mouth and read this again. For "central belt" seats you mean "seats which would just have elected an SNP MP". So you believe that should the SNP secure the thing that SNP MPs were elected to secure, the people who voted for that thing they have just secured will vote for people against that thing in 2027?
You really need to pull back the focus of things you post about. Preferably to wokeists and communists in Loughton or whatever that you can get sorted.
The main reason they went from SLab to SNP is dislike of New Labour and Tory governments, they certainly did not want the SNP propping up Tory governments.
I will not support indyref2
You surely will if it becomes party policy. Indyref1 was party policy too.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
You're just repeating that generation shite again, admittedly with the creative innovation of adding "it was a big boy that did it and ran away".
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You are unbelievable
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
You will find BigG on most issues the average Tory voter let alone the average Tory member now has more in common with me than you now matter how much you huff and puff
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
Question: A Tory leadership election is triggered when 15 per cent of Tory MPs write a letter to the 1922 Committee chairman.
Under the current rules, when is an individual classed as a Tory MP? Is it de facto after a returning officer has announced that they’re the winner of a constituency or is it de jure from when they're sworn in? Indeed, is a Tory leader effectively untouchable between the end of the previous parliament and the start of the next?
A Johnson who can be challenged as soon as he talks to Sturgeon has a very different set of options to a Johnson who cannot and who can present something as a fait accompli.
Between the dissolution of Parliament, and the swearing-in after the subsequent election, there are no MPs.
True, but there are party members who have been elected to become MPs, and a party leader who is busy negotiating with other party leaders. There's nothing to stop the members-to-be of the 1922 group-to-be getting together informally and making their collective views known to Mr J so he is in no doublt about their reaction. Whether it is possible for a party leader to be overthrown on a similar timescale I'm not sure, if he is not willing to step down.
If the election is on Thursday, the swearings-in usually start on Monday. When there’s enough letters to the ‘22, the vote is usually within 48 hours, as we saw when Mrs May was challenged.
The scariest statistic, from a brief read through the document. “In 2020, 42% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous abortions. The proportion has increased steadily from 34% in 2010”
I am really surprised it is as high as 58%, mothers who would have an abortion.
When you look at the grounds for NHS granting one, it is almost impossible to get an abortion for any reason other than danger to the mother or the unborn child. I reckon damage to mental health must be a big player - I don’t know anyone who has had an abortion for any other reason than it was inconvenient to have a baby, I guess they must have gone private
About 97% are on mental health grounds. You could say this is tantamount to abortion on demand, because if you want an abortion and are instead forced to carry a baby to term it seems obvious it would be mentally distressing, but two doctors have to agree and you have to convince them you would be distressed.
That's right. It's for over 24 weeks where there needs to be exceptional circumstances such as danger to either mother or baby's life.
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You are unbelievable
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
You will find BigG on most issues the average Tory voter let alone the average Tory member now has more in common with me than you now matter how much you huff and puff.
I'm with Alastair. To a lot of people Johnson is repellent. Repellent beyond any normal dislike for a politician.
So what does that say about Starmer if "a lot" of people are repelled by Johnson - yet on most metrics Johnson rates higher?
Boris repels many but also attracts many, it's pointless to talk only of repelling. Starmer doesnt repel many but as yet has struggled to attract as well.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
Hmm you're not in obs-gyn are you ^^;
I reckon that's probably about a million pregnancies.
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
Isn't that devolved to Wales?
(Excellent idea, though, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork scratchings with a rusty cut throat razor. I make it that my costs for my home would go up a little, which I would more then recover when I buy the next place. People in a normal terraced house here would benefit to the tune of 1-2% of average income.)
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
No, they would still vote for it, as 22 weeks is a step in the right direction to 12 weeks and still below the current 24 weeks. Votes could then also be held on 20 weeks and 12 weeks on a free vote basis after though those would be less likely to pass
I see the featured object of your desired everlasting dominion has transferred from Scotland to women's bodies.
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You are unbelievable
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
You will find BigG on most issues the average Tory voter let alone the average Tory member now has more in common with me than you now matter how much you huff and puff
Apart from, you know, The Biggie.
You and they are polls apart (geddit).
BigG was also a Remainer and the comparison was with BigG, so there is no difference between us on Brexit in the sense we both respect the vote the differences are on other issues
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
Isn't that devolved to Wales?
(Excellent idea, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork sratchings with a cut throat razor.)
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
However regardless the future of the union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 and as long as we continue to have a Tory government it will say no.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
Hmm you're not in obs-gyn are you ^^;
I reckon that's probably about a million pregnancies.
Probably in that ball park, but while miscarriages are often tragic, in terms of political debate it is births and deliberate abortions that matter.
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
Isn't that devolved to Wales?
(Excellent idea, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork scratchings with a rusty cut throat razor. I make it that my costs for my home would go up a little, which I would more than recover when I buy the next place.)
Lol do you have the solitary house in Nottinghamshire that would be adversely affected by this ?
Y'all know I'm ex Labour and now a LibDem. So those of you who are neither need to understand the mess out there in opposition parties. In the UK the Tories have made themselves completely alone, with no possible partner after the LD implosion of 2015 and the shitting on the DUP of 2020.
Making a statement that "we will not work with the Tories" is not news. Nobody will work with the Tories again for a long time. But the flip isn't that we will go into coalition with Labour either. C&S is the absolute most I can see the party backing.
The mess is that whilst all agree the Tories are unfit for office they don't know what to do about it or how to go about removing them. Unless Labour win a majority, the kingmakers will be the SNP and the threat of them holding the whip hand was a driving force in the final week of the 2015 election which gave Cameron a majority.
Here is the real question. The Tories fall short. The only deal on the table is from the SNP who are prepared to provide confidence for a minority Tory government in exchange for favourable terms for a referendum.
If you are Boris Johnson, what do you do...?
Incoming denial for post GE agreement between Cons and SNP for Sindyref2 from HYUFD.
There will never be another indyref2 again under a Tory government effectively, if the SNP want one they will have to get a Labour government.
I would demand the Tories go into opposition rather than rely on the SNP as I expect would most Tory MPs.
In any case the SNP would not do any deal with the Tories anyway, it would guarantee their central belt seats go back to Labour
You are unbelievable
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
You will find BigG on most issues the average Tory voter let alone the average Tory member now has more in common with me than you now matter how much you huff and puff
Apart from, you know, The Biggie.
You and they are polls apart (geddit).
BigG was also a Remainer and the comparison was with BigG, so there is no difference between us on Brexit in the sense we both respect the vote the differences are on other issues
Of course but you said "on most issues the average Tory voter...has more in common with" you.
Most perhaps, but not the defining issue of this Conservative government. Which is fine, I respect the fact that you still believe Remain was the right choice but accept the democratic decision that said we left.
But that doesn't make a difference to your political beliefs, which are at odds with those of the Conservative Party (that leaving was a good idea).
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
However it could stay in power with the 8 DUP MPs if they back the Tories again, assuming SF do not take their seats.
What better way to win over our DUP friends than promising to reduce the abortion time limit to 22 weeks for the whole UK as a bonus while Lord Frost continues to work to remove the Irish Sea border?
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
The idea that any party would do a coalition with Boris is off the wall. For the Tories, this is the man who's literally turned untrustworthiness into a virtue.
This is the key point.
He’s betrayed most of his women.
He’s lied to his employers, and to us as voters, over and over
He’s been shown willing to break British law to get his own way.
He’s been willing to break international agreements.
What sane politician could ever do a deal with this man?
If it ever gets super close worth remembering that an absolute majority is not needed even without allies, depending how many SF get. Yes it's only a few less than a majority needed, and itd be weak, but would be enough to cling on for a bit.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
Didn't the LibDems make clear in 2010 that while they might go into coalition with Labour, the price would be replacing Brown? (Not that the maths would have worked).
The idea that any party would do a coalition with Boris is off the wall. For the Tories, this is the man who's literally turned untrustworthiness into a virtue.
This is the key point.
He’s betrayed most of his women.
He’s been shown willing to break British law to get his own way.
He’s been willing to break international agreements.
What sane politician could ever do a deal with this man?
@Foxy's point being that if the Cons were in the position of needing support then Boris would be out.
Which I think is likely in the medium term but perhaps not in the short term and there's a 5-10% chance that Boris would try to tough it out - most successful leader in a generation, etc, etc. And he might well succeed.
In which case absolutely, no sane party leader would go near him.
The idea that any party would do a coalition with Boris is off the wall. For the Tories, this is the man who's literally turned untrustworthiness into a virtue.
This is the key point.
He’s betrayed most of his women.
He’s lied to his employers, and to us as voters, over and over
He’s been shown willing to break British law to get his own way.
He’s been willing to break international agreements.
What sane politician could ever do a deal with this man?
No one trusts Boris but he's still managed to make them need him to win. That is rather impressive if infuriating for many.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
He never fails to surprise
He has had a dreadful time, then he reshuffles his cabinet getting rid of Williamson and demoting Raab, while promoting many women
Then he springs AUKUS on everyone with no leaks or even hints and receives endorsements from Starmer, Blackford, and many others including countries across the Trans Pacific
It is said he is very buoyant and confident and certainly attending the UN next week and the formal signing of the AUKUS agreement will have more camera bulbs flashing
It would be unwise to underestimate him though my preference would either be Rishi or Truss ( yes I do rate her)
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
Hmm you're not in obs-gyn are you ^^;
I reckon that's probably about a million pregnancies.
Probably in that ball park, but while miscarriages are often tragic, in terms of political debate it is births and deliberate abortions that matter.
I'd disagree with your use of "often" here but no matter - on deliberate abortions even at 20% that's a staggering and very sad figure to my mind
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
Didn't the LibDems make clear in 2010 that while they might go into coalition with Labour, the price would be replacing Brown? (Not that the maths would have worked).
Yes, I don't think it tenable to support a PM who has just been rejected. Only the DUP make that mistake!
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
Isn't that devolved to Wales?
(Excellent idea, though, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork scratchings with a rusty cut throat razor. I make it that my costs for my home would go up a little, which I would more then recover when I buy the next place. People in a normal terraced house here would benefit to the tune of 1-2% of average income.)
Stamp duty abolition will feed straight into an equivalent house price rise.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
However regardless the future of the union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 and as long as we continue to have a Tory government it will say no.
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
Hmm you're not in obs-gyn are you ^^;
I reckon that's probably about a million pregnancies.
Probably in that ball park, but while miscarriages are often tragic, in terms of political debate it is births and deliberate abortions that matter.
I'd disagree with your use of "often" here but no matter - on deliberate abortions even at 20% that's a staggering and very sad figure to my mind
A high percentage of miscarriages are very early, often before the woman is aware of more than being a bit late. Later ones are often devastating.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
However regardless the future of the union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 and as long as we continue to have a Tory government it will say no.
Until they say yes
It will say No and on current polls it is Sir Jeffrey Donaldson Boris will need to win over, he will not need Sturgeon or Blackford
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
Didn't the LibDems make clear in 2010 that while they might go into coalition with Labour, the price would be replacing Brown? (Not that the maths would have worked).
Yes, I don't think it tenable to support a PM who has just been rejected. Only the DUP make that mistake!
May wasnt rejected, she led the most popularly supported UK wide party.
It was a failure for her as she went backwards but it gets a but overegged.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
He never fails to surprise
He has had a dreadful time, then he reshuffles his cabinet getting rid of Williamson and demoting Raab, while promoting many women
Then he springs AUKUS on everyone with no leaks or even hints and receives endorsements from Starmer, Blackford, and many others including countries across the Trans Pacific
It is said he is very buoyant and confident and certainly attending the UN next week and the formal signing of the AUKUS agreement will have more camera bulbs flashing
It would be unwise to underestimate him though my preference would either be Rishi or Truss ( yes I do rate her)
Good post Big G.
Apart from my Boris out in two weeks bet I also had/have Raab as next leader so, frankly, there are few on PB who can match my betting abilities.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
Didn't the LibDems make clear in 2010 that while they might go into coalition with Labour, the price would be replacing Brown? (Not that the maths would have worked).
Yes, I don't think it tenable to support a PM who has just been rejected. Only the DUP make that mistake!
May wasnt rejected, she led the most popularly supported UK wide party.
It was a failure for her as she went backwards but it gets a but overegged.
Indeed, the Tories and DUP won most seats, that was a bigger victory for the right in seat terms than Cameron's 2010 win when the Tories and LDs had a majority
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
The estimate seems to be around 250 000 miscarriages per year, most in early pregnancy.
Stillbirths, talking statistically the fourth distinct pregnancy outcome are, thankfully, far lower at around 3 000, but there are also 2 000 deaths in the first month of life from the live births and abortions include around 4 000 that are due to health issues detected in the foetus.
In any case the total number of established pregnancies per year is around the 1.1 million mark.
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
Isn't that devolved to Wales?
(Excellent idea, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork scratchings with a rusty cut throat razor. I make it that my costs for my home would go up a little, which I would more than recover when I buy the next place.)
Lol do you have the solitary house in Nottinghamshire that would be adversely affected by this ?
It's more that that. These are the Council tax bands where I am. In my area of 55k of properties I make it roughly 10-12% that would be modestly worse off.
For people who live alone such as myself it kicks in at a somewhat lower level as I get a 25% discount on Council Tax. Mine is Band D worth around 300-325k.
The % will be somewhat higher in more expensive areas of Notts, which is parts of the S of the county and probably Nottingham, and places where the nobs live such as part of Revenshead.
Overall I think it is a very fair deal, and a good way of very gradual strategic levelling up, which will inflate very low house prices somewhat (& justify investment), and put a bit of downward pressure on expensive ones by increasing the costs modestly.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
However regardless the future of the union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 and as long as we continue to have a Tory government it will say no.
Until they say yes
Which is how long the SNP will be demanding referendums for......
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
Didn't the LibDems make clear in 2010 that while they might go into coalition with Labour, the price would be replacing Brown? (Not that the maths would have worked).
Yes, I don't think it tenable to support a PM who has just been rejected. Only the DUP make that mistake!
May wasnt rejected, she led the most popularly supported UK wide party.
It was a failure for her as she went backwards but it gets a but overegged.
Her post 2017 GE regime was rather ignominious. In retrospect, a change of leadership quickly would probably have been better.
Nothing like as strong as the new measures announced in Italy where, from October 15th, anyone in employment in any organisation will be suspended without pay for failing to be vaccinated.
They have elected to take radical measures to apply a boot to the necks of most refusers. People of working age who won't get jabbed are going to be deprived of their wages, on top of existing regulations that exclude all anti-vaxxers from many venues including gyms and restaurants.
If, as a consequence, they manage to get through the Winter without yet another lockdown disaster and we do not then the Government will have a great deal of explaining to do.
What does that mean? I mean I know it's something to do with the Tavvy but what are the implications?
The previous ruling blocked puberty delaying medication without parents' consent (as it ruled that under 16s were not competent to give their own consent). Therefore it effectively gave parents a veto on puberty blocking (as, by 16, it is generally a bit late).
It's a tricky area, as 'delaying' puberty can also have long term effects - it's not as simple as stop the medication, puberty happens and you end up physically (let alone mentally) the same as if no medication was given. But it still could be preferable to having to choose whether to do more invasive treatment early on.
The overturning brings this back into line with all other medical issues, following Gillick, as Foxy said.
Interestingly, the original argument in this case seems to be that there was poor information and not fully informed consent, which is more an issue in the particuar case than the principle - Tavistock might have made the judgement wrongly on the young person's competence to choose; it doesn't mean that all under 16s would not be competent to choose.
Another day of falling coronavirus cases in England - down a quarter in past 9 days. Even though there are signs of rising infections in school age kids, it's not yet outweighing falls in other ages. If this carries on next week we can probably relax about new school term
2.25 In 2019, 55% of women undergoing abortions had had one or more previous pregnancies that resulted in a live or stillbirth, up from 49% in 2009 (Table 3a.vii). 20% of women had had a previous pregnancy resulting in a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy, up from 15% in 2009.
There are around 200 000 surgical and medical abortions in the UK, and around 630 000 live births. Some miscarriages and still births too, but overall it looks like about a quarter of pregnancies are aborted.
Hmm you're not in obs-gyn are you ^^;
I reckon that's probably about a million pregnancies.
Probably in that ball park, but while miscarriages are often tragic, in terms of political debate it is births and deliberate abortions that matter.
I'd disagree with your use of "often" here but no matter - on deliberate abortions even at 20% that's a staggering and very sad figure to my mind
A high percentage of miscarriages are very early, often before the woman is aware of more than being a bit late. Later ones are often devastating.
My daughter falls into the early category before her first born came along
Anyway, there’s not the slightest chance of the next Conservative manifesto containing a commitment to restrict abortions to 22 weeks or any other level. It might conceivably pledge to have another vote on the matter (like Cameron did over hunting…did that ever happen?) but it will be a free vote as it has always been.
But even that is lower than 5%: I doubt the Prime Minister will want to be reminded on the campaign trail of his relationship with Petronnella Wyatt and his encouraging her….
Brutal - the ONS upper estimate (they estimate a range) of COVID infection in Scotland w/e Sept 11 was nearly 3% of the population, with the lower estimate 2%:
Nothing like as strong as the new measures announced in Italy where, from October 15th, anyone in employment in any organisation will be suspended without pay for failing to be vaccinated.
They have elected to take radical measures to apply a boot to the necks of most refusers. People of working age who won't get jabbed are going to be deprived of their wages, on top of existing regulations that exclude all anti-vaxxers from many venues including gyms and restaurants.
If, as a consequence, they manage to get through the Winter without yet another lockdown disaster and we do not then the Government will have a great deal of explaining to do.
What happens when they hammered by the flu instead?
The LDs can't prop up these Johnson Tories, this is obvious, so they may as well be clear about it. The election is going to be a binary battle between the 2 sides of England; modern v trad, metro v town & country, young v old, graduates v not, etc, ie like the EU referendum and the 2 GEs since. LDs, Lab, Greens make up the 1st block and their mission is to win enough seats (together with the nationalist parties of the other nations) to make Keir Starmer the PM of a minority Labour government. I think they're in with a decent shout but it's going to require some smart tactical voting.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
All politicians break their word. Yes Minister made a distinction between a political promise and a real promise.
Cameron broke his word just as much as Johnson did, for example saying he wouldn't resign if he lost the EU referendum, then resigning a few hours after the result. And Clegg apparently felt, wrongly I think, that Cameron stitched him up over the AV referendum.
But the reason to be in a coalition with somebody, even if you don't trust him, is that it's in his interests to be in a coalition with you. He needs your MPs, and you can always withdraw them if he does anything completely beyond the pale. So I think the question of personal trust is much less important in coalitions than it is on individual election pledges, for example.
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
It does seem a good idea and at a quick calculation I would pay about the same as I do now
Isn't that devolved to Wales?
(Excellent idea, though, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork scratchings with a rusty cut throat razor. I make it that my costs for my home would go up a little, which I would more then recover when I buy the next place. People in a normal terraced house here would benefit to the tune of 1-2% of average income.)
Stamp duty abolition will feed straight into an equivalent house price rise.
I'm not convinced of that.
At the lower end Stamp Duty does not apply, and at the upper end the annual cost of running a house will have increased. Overall it is another distorting tax out of the marketplace
I suppose we could leave it in place for everything say in the Upper Quartile .
I'm with Alastair. To a lot of people Johnson is repellent. Repellent beyond any normal dislike for a politician.
So what does that say about Starmer if "a lot" of people are repelled by Johnson - yet on most metrics Johnson rates higher?
How much Johnson repels people hasn't as far as I know been answered by the polls. My sense is that a majority of voters- including lifetime Tories -wont touch him with a 100 foot pole. This is Marmite with a twist.
Like Trump and other populists he just has too many haters. I can't remember such a polarising figure (mixed with Brexit ) and If 60% vote AGAINST him come what may then he'll lose.
What does that mean? I mean I know it's something to do with the Tavvy but what are the implications?
The previous ruling blocked puberty delaying medication without parents' consent (as it ruled that under 16s were not competent to give their own consent). Therefore it effectively gave parents a veto on puberty blocking (as, by 16, it is generally a bit late).
It's a tricky area, as 'delaying' puberty can also have long term effects - it's not as simple as stop the medication, puberty happens and you end up physically (let alone mentally) the same as if no medication was given. But it still could be preferable to having to choose whether to do more invasive treatment early on.
The overturning brings this back into line with all other medical issues, following Gillick, as Foxy said.
Interestingly, the original argument in this case seems to be that there was poor information and not fully informed consent, which is more an issue in the particuar case than the principle - Tavistock might have made the judgement wrongly on the young person's competence to choose; it doesn't mean that all under 16s would not be competent to choose.
There was a Tory LD government in 2014 not a Tory majority government and it was supposed to be once in a generation
"Once in a generation" is HYUFD chanting "I believe in fairies"
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
However regardless the future of the union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 and as long as we continue to have a Tory government it will say no.
Until they say yes
Which is how long the SNP will be demanding referendums for......
That is true but an optimum time to win indyref2 for the union may present itself and anyway I expect the union to win comfortably post Brexit and covid
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
I think that if Johnson lost his majority, there would be a new leader to negotiate with.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
Yes absolutely but look at the Cons now - flying high why would there be a new leader? Sure the Cons/BJ's numbers are slipping but this is mid-term they should be shocking instead they are bobbing around parity with Lab and still generally 5pts ahead.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
My point is that if Johnson were needing to negotiate a coalition or C and S, he would be doing so because he lost more seats than his current majority. There would be a new Con leader, sure as eggs is eggs. Probably not quickly enough to negotiate though possibly that would be done by an acting leader.
Didn't the LibDems make clear in 2010 that while they might go into coalition with Labour, the price would be replacing Brown? (Not that the maths would have worked).
Yes, I don't think it tenable to support a PM who has just been rejected. Only the DUP make that mistake!
May wasnt rejected, she led the most popularly supported UK wide party.
It was a failure for her as she went backwards but it gets a but overegged.
Her post 2017 GE regime was rather ignominious. In retrospect, a change of leadership quickly would probably have been better.
It might well be so - in fact the torturous nature of those years suggest it is likely to be so - but I confess as frustrating as it was in a strange way I appreciated May sticking it out for so long, even when she had lost complete control.
In effect, if not perhaps intent, she was telling the Tory party that if they truly felt there was someone better placed to lead, or who had a better idea of what to do next, then they were going to have to stand up and be counted and say so. Not just whinge privately or publicly. Not wait for her to make it easy for them. It was the equivalent of telling an opposition leader that it is easy to criticise but harder to come up with ideas. They much vaunted ruthlessness rather disappeared when put to that test.
Anyway, there’s not the slightest chance of the next Conservative manifesto containing a commitment to restrict abortions to 22 weeks or any other level. It might conceivably pledge to have another vote on the matter (like Cameron did over hunting…did that ever happen?) but it will be a free vote as it has always been.
But even that is lower than 5%: I doubt the Prime Minister will want to be reminded on the campaign trail of his relationship with Petronnella Wyatt and his encouraging her….
Given the latest polling average gives a hung parliament with the Tories needing DUP support to stay in power, offering the DUP the carrot of a reduction in the abortion limit from 24 to 22 weeks for the whole UK as well as lots of dosh for NI while Lord Frost works on trying to remove the Irish Sea border with the EU may be the only way Boris stays in No 10.
Boris will easily switch from pro choice social liberal to evangelical pro lifer if it keeps him in power as PM
The idea that any party would do a coalition with Boris is off the wall. For the Tories, this is the man who's literally turned untrustworthiness into a virtue.
I'd agree they may not do a coalition with Boris. But the Lib Dems shouldn't rule out doing a coalition with the Conservatives. And the price they could extract would be the same Clegg tried to extract from Labour. Namely a change in leadership.
Another day of falling coronavirus cases in England - down a quarter in past 9 days. Even though there are signs of rising infections in school age kids, it's not yet outweighing falls in other ages. If this carries on next week we can probably relax about new school term
According to Richard Lister's stats, infections among 10-19 year olds have peaked and are declining rapidly. There is a slight rise in the 0-9 cohort but this doesn't balance out the 10-19s. I accept that 10-19 includes some who are not school age. https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1438553892812427271?s=20
However it could stay in power with the 8 DUP MPs if they back the Tories again, assuming SF do not take their seats.
What better way to win over our DUP friends than promising to reduce the abortion time limit to 22 weeks for the whole UK as a bonus while Lord Frost continues to work to remove the Irish Sea border?
If the Conservatives have 316 seats, then they will remain in Government. No government without them is really possible.
What does that mean? I mean I know it's something to do with the Tavvy but what are the implications?
The previous ruling blocked puberty delaying medication without parents' consent (as it ruled that under 16s were not competent to give their own consent). Therefore it effectively gave parents a veto on puberty blocking (as, by 16, it is generally a bit late).
It's a tricky area, as 'delaying' puberty can also have long term effects - it's not as simple as stop the medication, puberty happens and you end up physically (let alone mentally) the same as if no medication was given. But it still could be preferable to having to choose whether to do more invasive treatment early on.
The overturning brings this back into line with all other medical issues, following Gillick, as Foxy said.
Interestingly, the original argument in this case seems to be that there was poor information and not fully informed consent, which is more an issue in the particuar case than the principle - Tavistock might have made the judgement wrongly on the young person's competence to choose; it doesn't mean that all under 16s would not be competent to choose.
Thanks v much. A super tricky area.
Indeed - I really don't think all under 16s are competent to choose, given how much we don't trust teenagers to do, so am wary of any suggestion the process should be simple and easy once they want to do it, but that issue of demonstrating competence does complicate things.
Part of my view on this comes form a slightly different angle; one which might be non-obvious, or even wrong.
It starts with a statement: we are far too precious about life.
Now that's a crass thing to say, so let me elaborate: there are thousands of people who are suffering terribly, and we keep them alive when many do not want to be alive.
Take the case of French footballer Jean-Pierre Adams. He was in a coma for 39 years before he sadly - but perhaps thankfully - died this month. 39 years, perhaps of torture for him, but also for his friends and family. He had very significant damage to his brain, so even if he had miraculously awoken from his coma, what would his quality of live have been like?
We should also remember the case of Terri Schiavo, a young woman with PVS, over whose life a series of court cases were fought. After she was eventually left to die - seven years after the first court case - an autopsy showed that her brain weighed half that of an equivalent woman of her age.
A few lucky people do awaken from multi-year comas. But such occurrences are rare, and the amount of suffering of patients, relatives and friends is immense.
We need to talk about this, personally, as a society, and as a nation. I am not fond of Dignitas, but part of the issue is that Dignitas has to exist because of the laws in other states.
Personally, I am willing to say that if I am in a long-term coma, or if I am in a state where I have a persistently very low quality of life, am in pain, and cannot do many of the things I love - either through illness, accident, or old age - I would rather reach a happy end that continue the suffering of myself, my family, and friends. even if there is a 1% chance of recovering, I think an end would be best. I wish there was a way I could legally say it without outsiders, religious bigots and others interfering.
How does this connect to abortion? Put simply, many of the people who are pro-life would baulk at any assisted suicide or dignity in death laws. And I think a compassionate, humane society really needs such laws. I do not want to give these people such power over my death if I was in such an unfortunate position.
I agree; I think we should take doctors out of the equation and maybe allow that once all a person's children are adults then if there is unanimity, a parent can be euthanised.
This would have a number of other advantages too. It would allow us to get rid of all the child cruelty laws. No parent would dare abuse their kid, knowing that when they reached 21 (18 is too young), then they would have the power of life or death. It would also encourage parents to be generous with the inheritance early, which would help with the housing crisis in the UK. Finally, of course, it would begin to solve the demopgraphic issues that have so plagued the country.
I realise that there are a small number of downsides to this plan - notably the idea that it might disincentivize becoming a parent, but I'm sure we can come up with solutions to that.
Would it? Parents would ensure they always had at least one kid under 18/21.
Yeah I really don't think that any politician would trust Johnson to form a pact with him. He s&&t the bed with his border in the Irish Sea which no British PM could ever agree to and standing staring business people in the eye saying there will be no checks between NI and GB.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
All politicians break their word. Yes Minister made a distinction between a political promise and a real promise.
Cameron broke his word just as much as Johnson did, for example saying he wouldn't resign if he lost the EU referendum, then resigning a few hours after the result. And Clegg apparently felt, wrongly I think, that Cameron stitched him up over the AV referendum.
But the reason to be in a coalition with somebody, even if you don't trust him, is that it's in his interests to be in a coalition with you. He needs your MPs, and you can always withdraw them if he does anything completely beyond the pale. So I think the question of personal trust is much less important in coalitions than it is on individual election pledges, for example.
Yes I see that. I have many times said why I believe Cameron's fell short of lying so I won't repeat it and yes absolutely if it is a numbers game and you have the numbers you get to decide case by case.
Just that one would surely get the feeling that Boris would walk away from his meeting with you and almost before he was out of earshot would be planning on how to betray you and go back on his word to you. I have no doubt he would find a way.
Part of my view on this comes form a slightly different angle; one which might be non-obvious, or even wrong.
It starts with a statement: we are far too precious about life.
Now that's a crass thing to say, so let me elaborate: there are thousands of people who are suffering terribly, and we keep them alive when many do not want to be alive.
Take the case of French footballer Jean-Pierre Adams. He was in a coma for 39 years before he sadly - but perhaps thankfully - died this month. 39 years, perhaps of torture for him, but also for his friends and family. He had very significant damage to his brain, so even if he had miraculously awoken from his coma, what would his quality of live have been like?
We should also remember the case of Terri Schiavo, a young woman with PVS, over whose life a series of court cases were fought. After she was eventually left to die - seven years after the first court case - an autopsy showed that her brain weighed half that of an equivalent woman of her age.
A few lucky people do awaken from multi-year comas. But such occurrences are rare, and the amount of suffering of patients, relatives and friends is immense.
We need to talk about this, personally, as a society, and as a nation. I am not fond of Dignitas, but part of the issue is that Dignitas has to exist because of the laws in other states.
Personally, I am willing to say that if I am in a long-term coma, or if I am in a state where I have a persistently very low quality of life, am in pain, and cannot do many of the things I love - either through illness, accident, or old age - I would rather reach a happy end that continue the suffering of myself, my family, and friends. even if there is a 1% chance of recovering, I think an end would be best. I wish there was a way I could legally say it without outsiders, religious bigots and others interfering.
How does this connect to abortion? Put simply, many of the people who are pro-life would baulk at any assisted suicide or dignity in death laws. And I think a compassionate, humane society really needs such laws. I do not want to give these people such power over my death if I was in such an unfortunate position.
I agree; I think we should take doctors out of the equation and maybe allow that once all a person's children are adults then if there is unanimity, a parent can be euthanised.
This would have a number of other advantages too. It would allow us to get rid of all the child cruelty laws. No parent would dare abuse their kid, knowing that when they reached 21 (18 is too young), then they would have the power of life or death. It would also encourage parents to be generous with the inheritance early, which would help with the housing crisis in the UK. Finally, of course, it would begin to solve the demopgraphic issues that have so plagued the country.
I realise that there are a small number of downsides to this plan - notably the idea that it might disincentivize becoming a parent, but I'm sure we can come up with solutions to that.
That has to come pretty close to the top of the prize for most nut-job post ever placed on PB. And there have been a few good contenders!
One of the most troubling things for those of us that believe in universal suffrage and free speech is that all nutters have a vote and that they also have the right to demonstrate that it might be best if they were not allowed.
I think RCS is being ironic ... vide Swift A Modest Proposal.
Looking good so far from the return of the super spreading rug rats.
Indeed. Although iSAGE are this afternoon fretting that the Leicestershire school figures are not too good and they started back two weeks earlier than rest of England.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1438844755933282308
IND (Grainge): 34.8% (+34.8)
CON: 30.3% (-9.3)
LAB: 21.7% (-38.7)
IND (Platt): 11.6% (+11.6)
LDEM: 1.3% (+1.3)
IND (Hoban): 0.3% (+0.3)
Seat was held by MIG (Middlesbrough Independent Group) after the death of their councillor who had defected from Labour to MIG after her election in 2019.
As you can see, Labour got beaten into 3rd place. Worth noting that the other independents also ran - MICA (Middlesbrough Independent Councillors Association). MIG are the group who held executive posts under independent Mayor Andy Preston until they all quit and made accusations against him. Preston then replaced them with the competing MICA group.
See - it doesn't all have to be Labour and Tory. Instead you have two competing groups of independents fighting like ferrets in a sack.
It seems that a woman should have full control of her body but at the same time goodness only knows who gets to play god by deeming when a foetus is a person (with rights - the vast majority of foeti [?] would unhindered grow to become people).
Likewise assisted dying. I get that people, say, with MND have chosen this option but the dangers of enshrining it in law to me are many and real.
Who on earth are you to demand anything
You are not unique in that you only have one vote, and no matter your disgraceful attitude to other conservatives you do not own the conservative party
Day by day, week by week, you have become an embarrassment and yes, you can tell me to clear off because I voted Blair twice, but fortunately the conservatives I know in my area and who I have previously campaigned with would send you to Coventry
If Labour come out with this 0.5% levy idea to replace council tax in their manifesto my X will be in the Labour box quicker than @HYUFD can make a u-turn on abortion policy.
You would have to be a special type of stupid to believe anything he said when offering a pact with the political party you lead.
You and they are polls apart (geddit).
You are living in a fantasy
TBF it is about 1 in 1000 from the health / care sector in France.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210916-france-suspends-3-000-unvaccinated-health-workers-without-pay
About 3,000 workers in the health and care sectors have been suspended in France for failing to get vaccinated against COVID-19 before a government deadline, health minister Olivier Véran has announced.
That said, there is no way that the Lib Dems would support the party of Brexit. We want closer economic, social and cultural links with the EU. EEA or similar.
🛒 Supermarkets and restaurants expected to be affected in the coming days
👇 Read the full story from @AdamPayne26
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/beer-and-fizzy-drink-supplies-at-risk-from-co2-shortages
I reckon that's probably about a million pregnancies.
(Excellent idea, though, and Stamp Duty gets abolished too. But our PB one percenters will be squealing like live piglets being turned into pork scratchings with a rusty cut throat razor. I make it that my costs for my home would go up a little, which I would more then recover when I buy the next place. People in a normal terraced house here would benefit to the tune of 1-2% of average income.)
Was the referendum legislated as once in a generation
Was the referendum referred to as once in a generation when the laws creating it were debated
Was the referendum promoted as once in a generation aside from an off the cuff interview comment
Quite simply the referendum was not in any way once in a generation. You either know this and are endlessly lying. Or you are now believing in fairies.
Either way, it is embarrassing for you to keep chanting it with this kind of impotent non-authority.
I just don't see a new leader. And I backed Boris to be out by, er, Sep 2021 god help me.
https://www.facebook.com/ScottishConservatives/videos/they-said-it-was-a-once-in-a-generation-event/2666429930077957/
However regardless the future of the union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 and as long as we continue to have a Tory government it will say no.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fears-of-food-shortages-as-energy-price-rises-force-co2-plants-to-shut-down-w3rwq0g0z?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1631889358
Most perhaps, but not the defining issue of this Conservative government. Which is fine, I respect the fact that you still believe Remain was the right choice but accept the democratic decision that said we left.
But that doesn't make a difference to your political beliefs, which are at odds with those of the Conservative Party (that leaving was a good idea).
Government loses its majority on the latest polls.
CON: 316 MPs (-49)
LAB: 241 (+39)
SNP: 56 (+8)
LDEM: 13 (+2)
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1438877519659294721?s=20
What better way to win over our DUP friends than promising to reduce the abortion time limit to 22 weeks for the whole UK as a bonus while Lord Frost continues to work to remove the Irish Sea border?
5,885 is the combined figure for yesterday and today.
The equivalent two days last week were 13,651
That's a monstrous fall.
He’s betrayed most of his women.
He’s lied to his employers, and to us as voters, over and over
He’s been shown willing to break British law to get his own way.
He’s been willing to break international agreements.
What sane politician could ever do a deal with this man?
The question then becomes one of assessing Competence and Informed Consent in these troubled teenagers, which is quite a minefield to dance through.
Which I think is likely in the medium term but perhaps not in the short term and there's a 5-10% chance that Boris would try to tough it out - most successful leader in a generation, etc, etc. And he might well succeed.
In which case absolutely, no sane party leader would go near him.
He has had a dreadful time, then he reshuffles his cabinet getting rid of Williamson and demoting Raab, while promoting many women
Then he springs AUKUS on everyone with no leaks or even hints and receives endorsements from Starmer, Blackford, and many others including countries across the Trans Pacific
It is said he is very buoyant and confident and certainly attending the UN next week and the formal signing of the AUKUS agreement will have more camera bulbs flashing
It would be unwise to underestimate him though my preference would either be Rishi or Truss ( yes I do rate her)
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1438820215341604868?s=20
It was a failure for her as she went backwards but it gets a but overegged.
Apart from my Boris out in two weeks bet I also had/have Raab as next leader so, frankly, there are few on PB who can match my betting abilities.
Stillbirths, talking statistically the fourth distinct pregnancy outcome are, thankfully, far lower at around 3 000, but there are also
2 000 deaths in the first month of life from the live births and abortions include around
4 000 that are due to health issues detected in the foetus.
In any case the total number of established pregnancies per year is around the 1.1 million mark.
For people who live alone such as myself it kicks in at a somewhat lower level as I get a 25% discount on Council Tax. Mine is Band D worth around 300-325k.
The % will be somewhat higher in more expensive areas of Notts, which is parts of the S of the county and probably Nottingham, and places where the nobs live such as part of Revenshead.
Overall I think it is a very fair deal, and a good way of very gradual strategic levelling up, which will inflate very low house prices somewhat (& justify investment), and put a bit of downward pressure on expensive ones by increasing the costs modestly.
Never mind that - he could be undermining a large part of his vote who think they're supporting a cuddlier version of the Conservatives.
They have elected to take radical measures to apply a boot to the necks of most refusers. People of working age who won't get jabbed are going to be deprived of their wages, on top of existing regulations that exclude all anti-vaxxers from many venues including gyms and restaurants.
If, as a consequence, they manage to get through the Winter without yet another lockdown disaster and we do not then the Government will have a great deal of explaining to do.
It's a tricky area, as 'delaying' puberty can also have long term effects - it's not as simple as stop the medication, puberty happens and you end up physically (let alone mentally) the same as if no medication was given. But it still could be preferable to having to choose whether to do more invasive treatment early on.
The overturning brings this back into line with all other medical issues, following Gillick, as Foxy said.
Interestingly, the original argument in this case seems to be that there was poor information and not fully informed consent, which is more an issue in the particuar case than the principle - Tavistock might have made the judgement wrongly on the young person's competence to choose; it doesn't mean that all under 16s would not be competent to choose.
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1438881983430598658?s=20
But even that is lower than 5%: I doubt the Prime Minister will want to be reminded on the campaign trail of his relationship with Petronnella Wyatt and his encouraging her….
Students strongly endorsed Warwick’s pandemic learning model, lifting it into the top 20 on both our measures of student satisfaction
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1438749928315138057?s=20
Given the performance of the COVID modellers, should have been minus 1,000,000 points.
The LDs can't prop up these Johnson Tories, this is obvious, so they may as well be clear about it. The election is going to be a binary battle between the 2 sides of England; modern v trad, metro v town & country, young v old, graduates v not, etc, ie like the EU referendum and the 2 GEs since. LDs, Lab, Greens make up the 1st block and their mission is to win enough seats (together with the nationalist parties of the other nations) to make Keir Starmer the PM of a minority Labour government. I think they're in with a decent shout but it's going to require some smart tactical voting.
Cameron broke his word just as much as Johnson did, for example saying he wouldn't resign if he lost the EU referendum, then resigning a few hours after the result. And Clegg apparently felt, wrongly I think, that Cameron stitched him up over the AV referendum.
But the reason to be in a coalition with somebody, even if you don't trust him, is that it's in his interests to be in a coalition with you. He needs your MPs, and you can always withdraw them if he does anything completely beyond the pale. So I think the question of personal trust is much less important in coalitions than it is on individual election pledges, for example.
At the lower end Stamp Duty does not apply, and at the upper end the annual cost of running a house will have increased. Overall it is another distorting tax out of the marketplace
I suppose we could leave it in place for everything say in the Upper Quartile
Like Trump and other populists he just has too many haters. I can't remember such a polarising figure (mixed with Brexit ) and If 60% vote AGAINST him come what may then he'll lose.
It is foolish to rule out all options
In effect, if not perhaps intent, she was telling the Tory party that if they truly felt there was someone better placed to lead, or who had a better idea of what to do next, then they were going to have to stand up and be counted and say so. Not just whinge privately or publicly. Not wait for her to make it easy for them. It was the equivalent of telling an opposition leader that it is easy to criticise but harder to come up with ideas. They much vaunted ruthlessness rather disappeared when put to that test.
Boris will easily switch from pro choice social liberal to evangelical pro lifer if it keeps him in power as PM
But the Lib Dems shouldn't rule out doing a coalition with the Conservatives.
And the price they could extract would be the same Clegg tried to extract from Labour. Namely a change in leadership.
I accept that 10-19 includes some who are not school age.
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1438553892812427271?s=20
Just that one would surely get the feeling that Boris would walk away from his meeting with you and almost before he was out of earshot would be planning on how to betray you and go back on his word to you. I have no doubt he would find a way.
Clutching at any passing straw?