Was the CONHome members’ survey the driver of the re-shuffle? – politicalbetting.com

CarlottaVance said:

I'm down wif da youth...

Do you refer to the coming weekend as ‘this weekend’ or ‘next weekend’? The nation is divided, and age is key

All Britons: 'this' 40% / 'next' 56%

18-29 year olds: 61% / 31%
30-39: 51% / 41%
40-49: 47% / 52%
50-59: 27% / 71%
60+: 25% / 70%

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1438454306932510724?s=20

But then again today is Thursday and the question was asked Monday/Tuesday.....

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway after many hours hospital sent Husband home without really doing anything. Told to come back if still not better.

The system's fucked. I was in A&E for 16 hours when I fucked myself in that recent motorbike accident. I couldn't face going back so I cut my cast off with a pneumatic rotary die grinder and made my own splint with thermoplastic off eBay and velcro tape. Got a megaton yield thermonuclear bollocking of Mrs DA for this act of hardy self-reliance.

How's the wrist now ?

Fucked. Still very swollen and painful with almost no grip strength or mobility. Need to do pads and discs on the F80 M3 tomorrow so that'll be a laugh. The new GSX-R has a bidirectional quick shifter so I don't need a clutch hand once I've got it rolling.

Valhalla, I am coming...

Mate, go to the doc

You've got money. Go to a private doc if it speeds things up

You're a highly entertaining poster, with a fine line in insults, swearing and obscure but dazzling mechanical references, it would be a shame if bits of you fell off, and then you snuffed it because of your *toxic masculinity*

Tho if this is all a joke, bravo

You two need to get a room.

Although, since he's effectively a left-wing version of you it does kinda explain the love in.

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Go to a private doc if it speeds things up

NHS not fit for purpose #94: I went to the GP after I bust my hand up and he said it's a suspected fracture and we'll get you and appointment which should take 4-6 weeks and call if you don't hear anything.

Went private was seen the following day, it was operated on and pinned three days after that.

Wouldn't remember which hand it was now, thanks for asking.

Bumrungrad Private Hospital, Bangkok. It's like the Savoy. That's always been my go-to place for SERIOUS THINGS

Not available at the mo, sadly

Cyclefree said:

Fuxsake!

Husband back in hospital again. Tried to swallow a tiny amount of soft white bread soaked in milk and hot water and choked and vomited. Not good. How the hell can a half of walnut do this sort of damage?

And I can't sit with him either. Furness Hospital in special measures. Hope they have a decent ENT doc. Otherwise we'll be heading for Preston.

The Cyclefree family really doesn't need this right now.

Cyclefree said:

Fuxsake!

Husband back in hospital again. Tried to swallow a tiny amount of soft white bread soaked in milk and hot water and choked and vomited. Not good. How the hell can a half of walnut do this sort of damage?

And I can't sit with him either. Furness Hospital in special measures. Hope they have a decent ENT doc. Otherwise we'll be heading for Preston.

The Cyclefree family really doesn't need this right now.

Theuniondivvie said:

malcolmg said:

Did Gove have a sister I wonder.

Apols in advance

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

MaxPB said:

IshmaelZ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MaxPB said:

I do think reality is now dawning on the French of what Brexit really means for the standing of the EU (and by association France).

The UK brought a lot to the EU table and instead of accomodating the world's 5th largest economy, permanent UN security council member and major military power, the EU beancounters decided that losing the UK was a better choice than accomodating us. Now when key global decisions are being made the EU has got no presence, it's not in the room.

I have no love of the continual fracturing of the western alliance, however, it looks set to ramp up. I expect this new agreement will pull Japan, South Korea and India in as associate members fairly soon. I doubt any EU nation will be invited. Ultimately the US will want a very, very tightly closed circle on tech sharing. No single EU country can be trusted to keep the circle closed.

I understand the agreement is to be signed in the US next week with Boris travelling there and India and Japan invited to the ceremony

I really do not think our remainer colleagues have even started to understand what a devastating and profound blow this is, not just to France, but the EU itself

And the BBC may finally wake up to this and cover it

I have no dog in the fight, but why do Leavers think that Look, Brexit fucked up the EU, is a banker of an argument?

It's not an argument so much as it is the reality of "Brexit means Brexit" as the EU kept telling us over "cherry picking" and such. It was always going to cut both ways but loads of remainers and the EU in general had blinded themselves to the reality of downside risks to the EU of Brexit. Not being in the room was pointed out as a huge downside risk to them of leaving, they brushed it off and acted as though the same level of security cooperation would exist. I remember having discussions with people on here about it and the general remain/EU assumption was that the UK would continue to play a full part in the defence of the EU, it was very obviously not going to happen that way.

Now everyone needs to live within that new reality. The UK brought the EU with it when we were members, now we won't.

I have no issue with that. EU membership for me was about the single market, common standards, freedom of movement, shared values. Defence cooperation was and is NATO, and now depending on how it develops AUKUS.

The French will be seething but these things happen. They will have to suck it up (but will no doubt also look for ways to get their own back).

We cannot ignore France however, they are the strongest European military power alongside us within NATO in terms of containing Putin's Russia. They have also played a key role with us in Africa in taking on jihadis.

Yes we can share technologies and enable Australia to have nuclear submarines but at the end of the day it is regional powers in the Far East and Oceania ie not only Australia but Japan and South Korea and maybe India who need to take the lead on containing Xi's China under US leadership. We can provide support but we remain a power in Europe and the Atlantic mainly, since the end of the British Empire we are not a global superpower and since the Hong Kong handover there has been no danger of China threatening British territory directly

Careful, you don't want to go on the record in a "HYUFD Unbellyfeel Brexit" way.

Yes, it's a deal, and stiffing the French is never to be sniffed at, but is it that big a deal? And had it happened in, say, 2011, would it have looked that different?

In 2011 though of course it was Cameron and Sarkozy leading on taking action in Libya to stop a Gaddaffi bloodbath.

The fact is even post Brexit the EU is our largest trading destination for UK exports and France our closest military partner in maintaining security in Europe and Africa, yes we can be global Britain too but that does not mean forgetting our own backyard

They did a grand job in Libya , really improved things big time.

Absolutely they did. Gaddaffi is gone.

You cretinous halfwit the country is wrecked , untold dead and it is back in medieval state. Only an absolute numpty like you could think that carnage is success.

Talking of wrecked countries....

Nicola Sturgeon tells Holyrood there is now "consideration" of "seeking targeted military assistance to help deal with short-term pressure points" in Scotland's crisis-hit ambulance service. Comes after news a 65-year-old man died while enduring a 40-hour wait..

Nicola Sturgeon under pressure at #FMQs to speed up response, after only saying "considering" Army help and her Health Sec saying response details in a statement next Tuesday.
@AnasSarwar: “Urgent action needs to happen today.. we can't wait a week for this government to wake up”...

In response to @AnasSarwar, Nicola Sturgeon gives some more details saying that after #FMQs she's going to her office to work on final details of the request for military assistance for Scotland's ambulance service. So - it's happening.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1438459188032806915?s=20

Your mental block obviously missed the same thing in England or does that not count as you are more caring down there. You are ecstatic about death, doom, gloom and misfortune in Scotland. Not an edifying personality trait.

You mean English health boards had the wit to ask for help when they needed it?

What ever could have stayed the hand of an SNP Health Minister to asking for help from the British Army?

It's a puzzle!

NickPalmer said:

Cookie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Almost 90% of all 16-24 year olds now have Covid antibodies, ONS.

That's good.
I was wondering this morning whether we're due another little surge in a week or two when the universities go back. I'm still presuming we will, but hopefully it won't be massive.

What is the current thinking on how far antibodies protect you, if you are not yet vaccinated?

Pulpstar said:

Lol NFT frontrunning

OpenSea, one of the largest NFT marketplaces, has confirmed that its head of product, Nate Chastain, used insider knowledge to purchase NFTs that he knew were going to be displayed on the front page of OpenSea ahead of general release.

The accusations first arose on Twitter, with one user called ‘Zuwu’ saying that Chastain seems to be selling these pieces “shortly after the front-page-hype spike for profits.”

Yesterday, on September 15, OpenSea published a post confirming Chastain’s actions.

williamglenn said:

EU @JosepBorrellF said the bloc would be "very happy" if the U.K. were interested in joining the EU's efforts to develop a coordinated naval presence in Indo-Pacific.

https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1438482905425195016?s=21

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Gary_Burton said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Linke flirting with relevance.

Deutschland Wählt
@Wahlen_DE
· 4h
BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage YouGov

SPD: 25% (-1)
Union: 20% (-1)
GRÜNE: 15%
AfD: 11% (-1)
FDP: 10%
LINKE: 8% (+2)
FW: 3% (NEU)
Sonstige: 7% (-3)

SPD and Grune and Linke still only gets to 48% though, SPD and Grune and FDP does get to 50%

I think this is an outlier for die Linke but I would be surprised if they poll less than 6% and get less than 3 constituency seats in East Berlin. I would be surprised if they got any constituency elsewhere though (like Leipzig/Dresden etc)

Assuming that FW and Sonstige(others) are not in the final shareout as they are below 5%, then 48 out of 90 will definitely be above 50%, therefore a majority.

I agree about the Linke 8% being an outlier (the other poll on the same day showed them still at 6). But as Gary and Davey say, the sPD is likely to have a choice - Greens plus FDP or Linke. I think Scholz would prefer the FDP, though that might lose some voters on the left. Probably we won't know at once as Scholz will trade off one against the other in negotiations.

On a lighter note, this is what the Greens in Germany want for a sleeper train network. It gets my vote!

Mine too. Some impossibly romantic journeys there. London to Venice. London to Barcelona. London to Naples. Wake up looking at Capri!

Edinburgh to Athens would be the ultimate but they've gotta get up and cross stations in London. Sorry about that

Yes, that's one reason why we need to build a direct link to HS2, so trains from Scotland/northern England can go direct to the continent. That said, I believe Paris suffers from the same issue (I could be wrong, I dare say the PB Train Experts will clarify).

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Philip_Thompson said:

.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Philip_Thompson said:

theProle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said the mandatory vaccination policy was “very unfair” and that about 2,000 of the region’s care home workers faced losing their jobs overnight unless they received their first jab within hours.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/16/england-care-homes-may-be-forced-to-close-as-covid-jab-deadline-looms

King of the North is totally wrong side of the argument on this. It really isn't unfair at all. All adults have now had months to organize getting jabbed, and you have a duty of care to the people you look after.

The reality is that it's going to put a lot of pressure on the sector as those who don't want to be jabbed (probably the main reason now for unjabbed staff in this sector) leave. In other times, this might not have mattered, but with the current state of the jobs market, they will be difficult or expensive to replace.
Choosing between "not enough staff" and "all staff jabbed" is not necessarily clear cut.

Yes it is. These staff are literally dealing with the most vulnerable to the virus. No excuses, get the jab or get out of the sector.

Anyone who wants to keep their job will go get the jab.

The problem is that quite a few of them probably don't particularly want to keep their job and are likely eyeing better paid and less stressful work elsewhere.

That's not a problem.

If that gets the unvaccinated away from the vulnerable then that's a win.

And if they can find a job happy to hire them that makes them happier then good luck to them too.

Good luck answering the "why did you leave your last employer" question at interview if it gets asked though.

More pertinently, the problem is that there is a desperate shortage of care staff at the moment, and nobody wants to do anything to make the situation even worse. I agree that care workers should certainly be vaccinated, but if the choice is between an unvaccinated carer and no carer, then things are less clear cut!

Not for me it's not. I'd rather a vaccinated agency worker be there while recruitment proceeds than an unvaccinated one passing on the virus.

Anyone who knows they're working with the very most vulnerable in society that can't be arsed or doesn't want to get vaccinated can't be a very good carer anyway.

Wouldn't they have to rewrite the terms of employment?

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

EU @JosepBorrellF said the bloc would be "very happy" if the U.K. were interested in joining the EU's efforts to develop a coordinated naval presence in Indo-Pacific.

https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1438482905425195016?s=21

I think that goes into the "thanks, but no thanks" column.

Pulpstar said:

Cyclefree said:

Fuxsake!

Husband back in hospital again. Tried to swallow a tiny amount of soft white bread soaked in milk and hot water and choked and vomited. Not good. How the hell can a half of walnut do this sort of damage?

And I can't sit with him either. Furness Hospital in special measures. Hope they have a decent ENT doc. Otherwise we'll be heading for Preston.

The Cyclefree family really doesn't need this right now.

Is that because of a lingering Covid reg ?

It's the absolute worst one of the lot tbh.

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

EU @JosepBorrellF said the bloc would be "very happy" if the U.K. were interested in joining the EU's efforts to develop a coordinated naval presence in Indo-Pacific.

https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1438482905425195016?s=21

I think that goes into the "thanks, but no thanks" column.

Wasn't it about 24 hours ago we were getting people gleefully pointing out that the UK wasn't even mentioned as an ally (when the US and others were) in their State of the Union speech?

As always, they needed us more than we needed them. Now we're moving on they're realising what they've lost.

IshmaelZ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Philip_Thompson said:

.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Philip_Thompson said:

theProle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said the mandatory vaccination policy was “very unfair” and that about 2,000 of the region’s care home workers faced losing their jobs overnight unless they received their first jab within hours.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/16/england-care-homes-may-be-forced-to-close-as-covid-jab-deadline-looms

King of the North is totally wrong side of the argument on this. It really isn't unfair at all. All adults have now had months to organize getting jabbed, and you have a duty of care to the people you look after.

The reality is that it's going to put a lot of pressure on the sector as those who don't want to be jabbed (probably the main reason now for unjabbed staff in this sector) leave. In other times, this might not have mattered, but with the current state of the jobs market, they will be difficult or expensive to replace.
Choosing between "not enough staff" and "all staff jabbed" is not necessarily clear cut.

Yes it is. These staff are literally dealing with the most vulnerable to the virus. No excuses, get the jab or get out of the sector.

Anyone who wants to keep their job will go get the jab.

The problem is that quite a few of them probably don't particularly want to keep their job and are likely eyeing better paid and less stressful work elsewhere.

That's not a problem.

If that gets the unvaccinated away from the vulnerable then that's a win.

And if they can find a job happy to hire them that makes them happier then good luck to them too.

Good luck answering the "why did you leave your last employer" question at interview if it gets asked though.

More pertinently, the problem is that there is a desperate shortage of care staff at the moment, and nobody wants to do anything to make the situation even worse. I agree that care workers should certainly be vaccinated, but if the choice is between an unvaccinated carer and no carer, then things are less clear cut!

Not for me it's not. I'd rather a vaccinated agency worker be there while recruitment proceeds than an unvaccinated one passing on the virus.

Anyone who knows they're working with the very most vulnerable in society that can't be arsed or doesn't want to get vaccinated can't be a very good carer anyway.

Wouldn't they have to rewrite the terms of employment?

No because the law has been changed which has done that for them. All contracts require the law to be followed so failure to get vaccinated when its a legal requirement is Gross Misconduct and can and should lead to dismissal without notice or compensation.

Your libertarian streak is showing again. Did you put your jackboots on to compose that?

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MaxPB said:

I do think reality is now dawning on the French of what Brexit really means for the standing of the EU (and by association France).

The UK brought a lot to the EU table and instead of accomodating the world's 5th largest economy, permanent UN security council member and major military power, the EU beancounters decided that losing the UK was a better choice than accomodating us. Now when key global decisions are being made the EU has got no presence, it's not in the room.

I have no love of the continual fracturing of the western alliance, however, it looks set to ramp up. I expect this new agreement will pull Japan, South Korea and India in as associate members fairly soon. I doubt any EU nation will be invited. Ultimately the US will want a very, very tightly closed circle on tech sharing. No single EU country can be trusted to keep the circle closed.

I understand the agreement is to be signed in the US next week with Boris travelling there and India and Japan invited to the ceremony

I really do not think our remainer colleagues have even started to understand what a devastating and profound blow this is, not just to France, but the EU itself

And the BBC may finally wake up to this and cover it

Big_G can I just point out that the BBC did cover this last night, and they continue to have it as their lead story on the website.

Are you also upset at all the newspaper front pages who, like the BBC, chose to lead last night with the cabinet reshuffle?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58578976

PS "our remainer colleagues"... Didn't you vote Remain?

This was a live statement by the President of the US, and Prime Ministers of UK and Australia and notified to the media worldwide.

Sky covered it live and have been heavily featuring it but the BBC coverage has been poor

The front pages are very different as they were going to press during the announcement but broadcast media are able to be far more flexible and do 'breaking news' all the time

This announcement has understandably upset EU supporters and those on the left as it has profound implications

LOL 😆

In fact its Labour who for some time now have been warning the British people that it is the Tories who are too close to the Chinese

https://www.fkawdw.nl/en/review/image/his_own_personal_signed_copy

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

It's France's fault. Theory goes that Australia faced with growing Chinese fleet decided to upgrade subs from diesel to nuclear and the French (who were converting their nuclear sub to diesel for the Australians) said "Non". What did they expect? Australia needed nuclear subs - France refused to supply them.

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Yes, one of the things a colleague pointed out this morning is the insistence of France to try and do everything in French as being a sticking point to everything involving them. Even now their bitching an moaning is all in French language media with only a few choice statements being made to English language media.

His point was that any information sharing including the French will inevitably result in everything needing to be in French as well as English and that means translators and widening the circle of who has access to highly classified information which is already an issue for the US wrt what is being shared with Australia.

JosiasJessop said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

It's France's fault. Theory goes that Australia faced with growing Chinese fleet decided to upgrade subs from diesel to nuclear and the French (who were converting their nuclear sub to diesel for the Australians) said "Non". What did they expect? Australia needed nuclear subs - France refused to supply them.

I've not heard anything about Oz wanting to upgrade the French deal to nukes.

JosiasJessop said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

It's France's fault. Theory goes that Australia faced with growing Chinese fleet decided to upgrade subs from diesel to nuclear and the French (who were converting their nuclear sub to diesel for the Australians) said "Non". What did they expect? Australia needed nuclear subs - France refused to supply them.

I've not heard anything about Oz wanting to upgrade the French deal to nukes.

Dura_Ace said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

The reaction has been weird. It's not clear what if anything the UK gets out of this but the tories are going in dry on each other because France got fucked as if that's all it takes to please them.

If you take away the banal political theatre what has actually happened beyond the existing security and defence frameworks? Nothing, except Australia might get SSNs with British bog roll holders 20 years hence.

CarlottaVance said:

Barnier getting stuck in:

https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/2021/09/16/rupture-contrat-de-sous-marins-australie-france-un-mauvais-coup-inacceptable-denonce-michel-barnier-EX7XFDF6IZEQROB5LLI3NZ5274/

AlistairM said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Yes, one of the things a colleague pointed out this morning is the insistence of France to try and do everything in French as being a sticking point to everything involving them. Even now their bitching an moaning is all in French language media with only a few choice statements being made to English language media.

His point was that any information sharing including the French will inevitably result in everything needing to be in French as well as English and that means translators and widening the circle of who has access to highly classified information which is already an issue for the US wrt what is being shared with Australia.

It is interesting how this seems to be very specific to the French. The Germans, for example, seem incredibly relaxed about English being the international language. It is only the French who continue to insist on the use of their own language.

Does this all stem from the fact that for hundreds of years that French was the language of diplomacy and has lost that status?

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

The reaction has been weird. It's not clear what if anything the UK gets out of this but the tories are going in dry on each other because France got fucked as if that's all it takes to please them.

If you take away the banal political theatre what has actually happened beyond the existing security and defence frameworks? Nothing, except Australia might get SSNs with British bog roll holders 20 years hence.

The benefits for the UK are more political, for now.

When Remoaners go on about "isolated Brexit Britain" (and for months this has been a valid attack line) the government can now say, Er, fuck off, we've just signed THE MOST IMPORTANT MILITARY TREATY IN DECADES. Britain is firmly allied with her English speaking cousins, we are allied with the world's most powerful nation, we are trying to contain China while the EU wibbles on about data privacy

And it is not just the Brits who are bigging up this agreement. It is huge news in Australia and the Yanks are saying it is "the most important strategic pivot in generations". And the Chinese are reacting fiercely, as you'd expect

Battle lines are being drawn. Britain has chosen. It is no small thing (even if, as you say, the practical changes are limited in the short term)

ping said:

Canada.

Polls still neck and neck. All the polls seem to be rolling, ie, small sample sizes. Useful to identify a trend, less useful to estimate the current voteshare for betting purposes. Time running out. Election is on the 20th.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

I’m backing con most seats >3/1.

That’s not a betting tip. Current odds are probably about right.

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

The reaction has been weird. It's not clear what if anything the UK gets out of this but the tories are going in dry on each other because France got fucked as if that's all it takes to please them.

If you take away the banal political theatre what has actually happened beyond the existing security and defence frameworks? Nothing, except Australia might get SSNs with British bog roll holders 20 years hence.

The benefits for the UK are more political, for now.

When Remoaners go on about "isolated Brexit Britain" (and for months this has been a valid attack line) the government can now say, Er, fuck off, we've just signed THE MOST IMPORTANT MILITARY TREATY IN DECADES. Britain is firmly allied with her English speaking cousins, we are allied with the world's most powerful nation, we are trying to contain China while the EU wibbles on about data privacy

And it is not just the Brits who are bigging up this agreement. It is huge news in Australia and the Yanks are saying it is "the most important strategic pivot in generations". And the Chinese are reacting fiercely, as you'd expect

Battle lines are being drawn. Britain has chosen. It is no small thing (even if, as you say, the practical changes are limited in the short term)

Almost like we never learn.

We need to have a discussion (which we won't have) about the UK's place in the world, militarily. We seem to think it now has something to do with keeping China contained in the Indo-Pacific region.

Fine.

But if this has been thought through, via position papers, strategic defence reviews, and workshopped by all stakeholders I'll stop posting on PB for 20 mins from 3am-5am on a Sunday morning.

It's just Boris (and potentially the General Staff) grandstanding without any regard for what it means in practice should things turn hot.

Edit: and it doesn't even seem to be that. Just us pushing from the back.

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

The reaction has been weird. It's not clear what if anything the UK gets out of this but the tories are going in dry on each other because France got fucked as if that's all it takes to please them.

If you take away the banal political theatre what has actually happened beyond the existing security and defence frameworks? Nothing, except Australia might get SSNs with British bog roll holders 20 years hence.

The benefits for the UK are more political, for now.

When Remoaners go on about "isolated Brexit Britain" (and for months this has been a valid attack line) the government can now say, Er, fuck off, we've just signed THE MOST IMPORTANT MILITARY TREATY IN DECADES. Britain is firmly allied with her English speaking cousins, we are allied with the world's most powerful nation, we are trying to contain China while the EU wibbles on about data privacy

And it is not just the Brits who are bigging up this agreement. It is huge news in Australia and the Yanks are saying it is "the most important strategic pivot in generations". And the Chinese are reacting fiercely, as you'd expect

Battle lines are being drawn. Britain has chosen. It is no small thing (even if, as you say, the practical changes are limited in the short term)

Unfortunately, this is turning into a massive diplomatic spat about arms procurement, with the US looking either shifty or cack handed. The stuff about a 'New Alliance' (if that's really a thing at all - Boris was hardly shouting about it from the rooftops in the House earlier) is being completely overshadowed. Boris was unwise to drag us into this.

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Gary_Burton said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Linke flirting with relevance.

Deutschland Wählt
@Wahlen_DE
· 4h
BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage YouGov

SPD: 25% (-1)
Union: 20% (-1)
GRÜNE: 15%
AfD: 11% (-1)
FDP: 10%
LINKE: 8% (+2)
FW: 3% (NEU)
Sonstige: 7% (-3)

SPD and Grune and Linke still only gets to 48% though, SPD and Grune and FDP does get to 50%

I think this is an outlier for die Linke but I would be surprised if they poll less than 6% and get less than 3 constituency seats in East Berlin. I would be surprised if they got any constituency elsewhere though (like Leipzig/Dresden etc)

Assuming that FW and Sonstige(others) are not in the final shareout as they are below 5%, then 48 out of 90 will definitely be above 50%, therefore a majority.

I agree about the Linke 8% being an outlier (the other poll on the same day showed them still at 6). But as Gary and Davey say, the sPD is likely to have a choice - Greens plus FDP or Linke. I think Scholz would prefer the FDP, though that might lose some voters on the left. Probably we won't know at once as Scholz will trade off one against the other in negotiations.

On a lighter note, this is what the Greens in Germany want for a sleeper train network. It gets my vote!

Mine too. Some impossibly romantic journeys there. London to Venice. London to Barcelona. London to Naples. Wake up looking at Capri!

Edinburgh to Athens would be the ultimate but they've gotta get up and cross stations in London. Sorry about that

Yes, that's one reason why we need to build a direct link to HS2, so trains from Scotland/northern England can go direct to the continent. That said, I believe Paris suffers from the same issue (I could be wrong, I dare say the PB Train Experts will clarify).

A direct link to HS2 destroys Camden, so no thanks

I am sure there used to be direct Eurostar services from London to Avignon? Maybe I imagined it. Never did that journey

Certainly I have always had to get off at Gard du Nord then head for the next station.....

HYUFD said:

ping said:

Canada.

Polls still neck and neck. All the polls seem to be rolling, ie, small sample sizes. Useful to identify a trend, less useful to estimate the current voteshare for betting purposes. Time running out. Election is on the 20th.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

I’m backing con most seats >3/1.

That’s not a betting tip. Current odds are probably about right.

The latest poll from EKOS has the Liberals and Conservatives tied in the popular vote but the Liberals lead 37% to 32% for the Conservatives in Ontario and the Liberals lead 34% to 28% for the BQ and 22% for the Conservatives in Quebec.

So the Liberals should still win most seats. Though if some of the 8% voting PPC in Ontario at present move back to the Conservatives that could change things
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2021/09/daily-tracking-september-15-2021/

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Lol NFT frontrunning

OpenSea, one of the largest NFT marketplaces, has confirmed that its head of product, Nate Chastain, used insider knowledge to purchase NFTs that he knew were going to be displayed on the front page of OpenSea ahead of general release.

The accusations first arose on Twitter, with one user called ‘Zuwu’ saying that Chastain seems to be selling these pieces “shortly after the front-page-hype spike for profits.”

Yesterday, on September 15, OpenSea published a post confirming Chastain’s actions.

The most ridiculous thing about it, he only made 20 ETH. Which at $3-4k per ETh sounds like a lot of money, until you see how much money OpenSea is making per day. They are making millions and millions, as they take 2.5% of every sale.

The whole NFT market is just one giant MLM scheme, people hype up a project to get other people interested, flip their crap to them, who then try and flip it to somebody...and the top of the chain, then move onto the next bag of shit to flip.

One user has made $15 million out of this so far this year.

I shouldn't complain though, selling shovels to all these idiots has made me a decent chunk of change past few weeks.

The whole thing sounds utterly bonkers.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MaxPB said:

I do think reality is now dawning on the French of what Brexit really means for the standing of the EU (and by association France).

The UK brought a lot to the EU table and instead of accomodating the world's 5th largest economy, permanent UN security council member and major military power, the EU beancounters decided that losing the UK was a better choice than accomodating us. Now when key global decisions are being made the EU has got no presence, it's not in the room.

I have no love of the continual fracturing of the western alliance, however, it looks set to ramp up. I expect this new agreement will pull Japan, South Korea and India in as associate members fairly soon. I doubt any EU nation will be invited. Ultimately the US will want a very, very tightly closed circle on tech sharing. No single EU country can be trusted to keep the circle closed.

I understand the agreement is to be signed in the US next week with Boris travelling there and India and Japan invited to the ceremony

I really do not think our remainer colleagues have even started to understand what a devastating and profound blow this is, not just to France, but the EU itself

And the BBC may finally wake up to this and cover it

Big_G can I just point out that the BBC did cover this last night, and they continue to have it as their lead story on the website.

Are you also upset at all the newspaper front pages who, like the BBC, chose to lead last night with the cabinet reshuffle?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58578976

PS "our remainer colleagues"... Didn't you vote Remain?

This was a live statement by the President of the US, and Prime Ministers of UK and Australia and notified to the media worldwide.

Sky covered it live and have been heavily featuring it but the BBC coverage has been poor

The front pages are very different as they were going to press during the announcement but broadcast media are able to be far more flexible and do 'breaking news' all the time

This announcement has understandably upset EU supporters and those on the left as it has profound implications

LOL 😆

In fact its Labour who for some time now have been warning the British people that it is the Tories who are too close to the Chinese

https://www.fkawdw.nl/en/review/image/his_own_personal_signed_copy

Any idea that that might be the case has been dispelled in one tripartite military treaty to be signed in the US next week

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Gary_Burton said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Linke flirting with relevance.

Deutschland Wählt
@Wahlen_DE
· 4h
BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage YouGov

SPD: 25% (-1)
Union: 20% (-1)
GRÜNE: 15%
AfD: 11% (-1)
FDP: 10%
LINKE: 8% (+2)
FW: 3% (NEU)
Sonstige: 7% (-3)

SPD and Grune and Linke still only gets to 48% though, SPD and Grune and FDP does get to 50%

I think this is an outlier for die Linke but I would be surprised if they poll less than 6% and get less than 3 constituency seats in East Berlin. I would be surprised if they got any constituency elsewhere though (like Leipzig/Dresden etc)

Assuming that FW and Sonstige(others) are not in the final shareout as they are below 5%, then 48 out of 90 will definitely be above 50%, therefore a majority.

I agree about the Linke 8% being an outlier (the other poll on the same day showed them still at 6). But as Gary and Davey say, the sPD is likely to have a choice - Greens plus FDP or Linke. I think Scholz would prefer the FDP, though that might lose some voters on the left. Probably we won't know at once as Scholz will trade off one against the other in negotiations.

On a lighter note, this is what the Greens in Germany want for a sleeper train network. It gets my vote!

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

The reaction has been weird. It's not clear what if anything the UK gets out of this but the tories are going in dry on each other because France got fucked as if that's all it takes to please them.

If you take away the banal political theatre what has actually happened beyond the existing security and defence frameworks? Nothing, except Australia might get SSNs with British bog roll holders 20 years hence.

The benefits for the UK are more political, for now.

When Remoaners go on about "isolated Brexit Britain" (and for months this has been a valid attack line) the government can now say, Er, fuck off, we've just signed THE MOST IMPORTANT MILITARY TREATY IN DECADES. Britain is firmly allied with her English speaking cousins, we are allied with the world's most powerful nation, we are trying to contain China while the EU wibbles on about data privacy

And it is not just the Brits who are bigging up this agreement. It is huge news in Australia and the Yanks are saying it is "the most important strategic pivot in generations". And the Chinese are reacting fiercely, as you'd expect

Battle lines are being drawn. Britain has chosen. It is no small thing (even if, as you say, the practical changes are limited in the short term)

Fine but the US, UK and Australia are not strong enough to contain China alone in Asia, they need Japan, S Korea and India on board as well.

Plus we also need France to help us contain Russia and deal with jihadis in Africa and share intelligence on extremists

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Lol NFT frontrunning

OpenSea, one of the largest NFT marketplaces, has confirmed that its head of product, Nate Chastain, used insider knowledge to purchase NFTs that he knew were going to be displayed on the front page of OpenSea ahead of general release.

The accusations first arose on Twitter, with one user called ‘Zuwu’ saying that Chastain seems to be selling these pieces “shortly after the front-page-hype spike for profits.”

Yesterday, on September 15, OpenSea published a post confirming Chastain’s actions.

The most ridiculous thing about it, he only made 20 ETH. Which at $3-4k per ETh sounds like a lot of money, until you see how much money OpenSea is making per day. They are making millions and millions, as they take 2.5% of every sale.

The whole NFT market is just one giant MLM scheme, people hype up a project to get other people interested, flip their crap to them, who then try and flip it to somebody...and the top of the chain, then move onto the next bag of shit to flip.

One user has made $15 million out of this so far this year.

I shouldn't complain though, selling shovels to all these idiots has made me a decent chunk of change past few weeks.

The whole thing sounds utterly bonkers.

As I have said before, there is something in NFTs and I can see this idea being built upon e.g. all your tickets for a gig / sporting event could be an NFT, then you know you got a real one (especially if you buy it second hand) and when you try to go in the venue know you have got a real one.

Same with high end digital art. I can see there being a shutterstock type site, you get to use whatever you see for your ad / website and the artist automatically gets a royalty. And you can also easily check if somebody is using your art without paying.

HOWEVER....at the moment, 100s of these stupid profile cartoon avatars are trading for $1000s, $10ks, $100k, even $1 millions, and the value swings massively every day.....absolute insanity and some people are going to be left holding the bag and lose a lot of money.

But obviously it has driven up the price of the crypto's that are the main coins for them. One, SOL, went from ~$20 to over $200 in a few weeks.

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

EU still not very chuffed by AUKUS. Particularly Paris

"A diplomatic crisis between Paris and Washington" - Le Monde


https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/09/16/crise-diplomatique-entre-washington-et-paris-au-sujet-des-sous-marins-australiens_6094856_3210.html

Certainly it puts Macron in an unfortunate spot in the run-up to the presidential elections. And certainly a help for Michel Barnier who already has a reputation for being a seasoned international operator and "hard man" when it comes to negotiations. Macron didn't even get to negotiate - just got shafted without a moment's thought by the perfidious Anglo-Saxons.

This whole little episode has been appallingly handled by the US and Australia. If the idea was to give Boris a brief moment in the sun then it worked; if the idea was to forge a new unity amongst the democratic western nations against the Chinese menace, then it's failed staggeringly. I think we can add this to Afghanistan in the list of Biden's foreign-policy blunders. He's catching up Trump, make no mistake.

The reaction has been weird. It's not clear what if anything the UK gets out of this but the tories are going in dry on each other because France got fucked as if that's all it takes to please them.

If you take away the banal political theatre what has actually happened beyond the existing security and defence frameworks? Nothing, except Australia might get SSNs with British bog roll holders 20 years hence.

The benefits for the UK are more political, for now.

When Remoaners go on about "isolated Brexit Britain" (and for months this has been a valid attack line) the government can now say, Er, fuck off, we've just signed THE MOST IMPORTANT MILITARY TREATY IN DECADES. Britain is firmly allied with her English speaking cousins, we are allied with the world's most powerful nation, we are trying to contain China while the EU wibbles on about data privacy

And it is not just the Brits who are bigging up this agreement. It is huge news in Australia and the Yanks are saying it is "the most important strategic pivot in generations". And the Chinese are reacting fiercely, as you'd expect

Battle lines are being drawn. Britain has chosen. It is no small thing (even if, as you say, the practical changes are limited in the short term)

Fine but the US, UK and Australia are not strong enough to contain China alone in Asia, they need Japan, S Korea and India on board as well.

Plus we also need France to help us contain Russia and deal with jihadis in Africa and share intelligence on extremists

That's why they have the QUAD - USA, India, Australia, Japan

America has realised we are now in a Cold War. And we are. China is actively hostile, seeks to diminish the West, divide us all up, and will quite happily send a lethal virus around the world, while sealing it up at home


And so America is saying to its allies: this is it, choose a side, we want to avoid a war, but that means we need deterrence. AUKUS will be the military backbone for deterring China, as NATO was for containing the USSR. I am sure other countries will join in the effort, in different ways

It's a damn shame. A liberal co-operative China would have been a wonderful thing for the world. For homo sapiens. But it's not on offer, not any more, and the new reality is much darker. But it is the reality