Is EdSec Gavin going to be a victim in the re-shuffle? – politicalbetting.com

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

Bollocks. People have always had the possibility of falling on hard times - sometimes due to gambling, sometimes due to job losses, sometimes due to drugs, sometimes due to unexpected bills. Sometimes for issues that are their responsibility, sometimes for very bad luck.

Prior to 2010 one of the most common adverts on TV was for Wonga "payday" loans. So why were people feeling the need to turn to Wonga prior to 2010 and why weren't foodbanks available instead?

The fact that we have charities able to help people if they fall on hard times, instead of Wonga, is an undeniably good thing and shows how far we have come in building a Big Society.

Before that there were pawnbrokers too and doorstep money lending for short term loans both legit and non legit.

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

🤦‍♂️

And yet the Governor of the Bank of England has had to write "please explain" letters six times to explain why CPI was too low since the referendum: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets

Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.

Take it up with the academics.

Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦‍♂️

The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦‍♂️

What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.

*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.

It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.

My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.

You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.

I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.

By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.

Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.

But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.

The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.

That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.

It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.

Currency depreciates - prices of imports rise. That's hardly news - and we know that from just watching the currency markets.

If you then look at the actual figures a better question would be why if Sterling depreciated by 8-10% did prices only increase by 2.9% and not something like the 6% you would expect in that circumstance. Who / what absorbed the rest of the change in import prices.

Philip_Thompson said:

Aslan said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-passports-can-still-help-defeat-winter-wave-no-10-insists-3zv90szj8

Well, that didn't take long. Do Cabinet Ministers talk to each other?

Javid doesn't want a "papers please" culture of checks.

Unless you are trying to vote, of course.

Or get money out of the bank. Or travel internationally. Or other serious activities where proving your identity is important.

Does drinking a vodka redbull with a Jaegerbomb class as a serious activity where proving your identity is important?

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

sarissa said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

🤦‍♂️

And yet the Governor of the Bank of England has had to write "please explain" letters six times to explain why CPI was too low since the referendum: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets

Only one letter to explain why inflation was too high and even then it was only because it exceeded bounds by just 0.1% and immediately came back to within bounds.

Take it up with the academics.

Who were focused on the relative change, and it’s impact on consumers - not whether the Bank of England breached inflation targets. 🤦‍♂️

The relative change aiming to suit their agenda it seems as our problem in recent years has been inflation is too low. If they're saying that problem would have been even worse without Brexit then thank goodness we had Brexit eh? 🤦‍♂️

What they are saying is that Brexit has cost the average household £870 a year*, and I note you do not disagree but simply believe it is not a problem.

*Attributable to depreciation alone, never mind the other costs.

It's 63 pages long with another 7 page appendix of assumptions - so you need time to read all of it.

My first pick up is the assumptions use West Texas crude as the oil price which wouldn't be my go to option for European crude and even then they are missing data for 2018 which they have claimed to extrapolate.

You are welcome to post a full response in the “Journal of Brexit Studies” aka the Daily Express.

I believe all submissions are thoroughly peer-reviewed.

By Laurence Fox and Lord “Beefy” Botham.

Hang on it's an economic paper on which I've already (and merely) questioned a single assumption.

But if the basis of that assumption is wrong how many others have similar flaws.

The key premise - that the Brexit vote triggered a sterling depreciation - is uncontroversial.

That depreciation might lead to an increase in consumer prices also seems - on the face of it - straightforward, but requires much more substantiation, which is what the paper attempts to do.

It’s quite funny watching the Brexiters insist that no, the Emperor is dressed in the finest silk.

Currency depreciates - prices of imports rise. That's hardly news - and we know that from just watching the currency markets.

If you then look at the actual figures a better question would be why if Sterling depreciated by 8-10% did prices only increase by 2.9% and not something like the 6% you would expect in that circumstance. Who / what absorbed the rest of the change in import prices.

Read the report - 29% of household spending is in directly/indirectly imported materials and goods. It is also worth noting that due to the higher share of housing costs in household budgets, London was less affected by this inflation.

Selebian said:

Heh, lol for my gullibility

The original isn't much saner, mind (assuming that version is genuine)
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/08/21/of-all-the-weird-things-in-this-liz-truss-picture-the-framed-dog-photo-is-the-weirdest/

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Friday tube update: ram packed. Fewer masks than I've seen for some time. I'd say 65%.

Edit: did not go to Greggs for lunch or dinner.

You're already hoping it's Friday? Long week ahead of you mate.

NickPalmer said:

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

With my friends who weren't born in the UK, if I banged on as much about it as the media and twatterati do, i think i would find myself uninvited pretty quickly.....

I recently had to fill in a questionnaire about the ethnicity of my children.

Utterly depressing, I was tempted to fill in the box marked other as 'Melting pot of many civilisations and culture.'

Apparently it is essential to capture their ethnicity and the social class of their parents.

For class did you write "None"?

One used to have to enter "race" on US visa applications. A well-known (white) British journalist was refused a visa after putting "human".

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

According to the Guardian there has been a real risk of the NHS being overwhelmed for the past 20 years (well certainly since 2010 for some reason).

A chorus of pro-lockdown papers showing pictures of trolleys in corridors will thereby tilt policy accordingly.

NickPalmer said:

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

With my friends who weren't born in the UK, if I banged on as much about it as the media and twatterati do, i think i would find myself uninvited pretty quickly.....

I recently had to fill in a questionnaire about the ethnicity of my children.

Utterly depressing, I was tempted to fill in the box marked other as 'Melting pot of many civilisations and culture.'

Apparently it is essential to capture their ethnicity and the social class of their parents.

For class did you write "None"?

One used to have to enter "race" on US visa applications. A well-known (white) British journalist was refused a visa after putting "human".

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

In any case, isn't the main benefit of vaxports to nudge the dubious into getting vaccinated (e.g. France)?

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

According to the Guardian there has been a real risk of the NHS being overwhelmed for the past 20 years (well certainly since 2010 for some reason).

A chorus of pro-lockdown papers showing pictures of trolleys in corridors will thereby tilt policy accordingly.

If what we hear from Foxy is true (and there is little reason not to believe him) his hospital (which we can assume is not unique so is similar to others) already has issues and it's early September.

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

isam said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

This is a point I tried to make at the start of the pandemic; if the news provided a breakdown of deaths by disease every day, all the time, things would seem a lot more bleak than they are. Or at least people would be a lot more fearful than they are

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

NickPalmer said:

TOPPING said:

Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.

Yeah? https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/sep/12/emma-raducanu-victory-sparks-debate-over-multiculturalism-in-the-uk

Second most widely-read article today.

TOPPING said:

isam said:

NickPalmer said:

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

With my friends who weren't born in the UK, if I banged on as much about it as the media and twatterati do, i think i would find myself uninvited pretty quickly.....

I recently had to fill in a questionnaire about the ethnicity of my children.

Utterly depressing, I was tempted to fill in the box marked other as 'Melting pot of many civilisations and culture.'

Apparently it is essential to capture their ethnicity and the social class of their parents.

For class did you write "None"?

One used to have to enter "race" on US visa applications. A well-known (white) British journalist was refused a visa after putting "human".

I just had to answer a load of questions on the FA site in order to join an over 35s football team inc Skin colour, religion, gender, am I the same gender as I was at birth, mum and dads occupation when I was 14

Was it multiple choice? What were the options for "skin colour"?

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

This is a point I tried to make at the start of the pandemic; if the news provided a breakdown of deaths by disease every day, all the time, things would seem a lot more bleak than they are. Or at least people would be a lot more fearful than they are

100% agree.

Edit: and my point from the start was that if you put the PM, CMO, CSO on a podium talking to the nation about rock climbing pretty soon rock climbing would be banned.

NickPalmer said:

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

FPPT.
Canada polling. Voting a week today. Average of last 10 polls, final days 8-11 September. So after the French debate, and straddling the English.

Libs 31.9 (-1.2)
Con 31.4 (-2.9)
NDP 18.4 (+2.4)
PPC 7.7 (+6.1)
BQ 6.0 (-1.6)
Green 3.6 (-3.0) Changes with last election.

Trudeau is coming with a late run again. Ironically, though, the Tories are getting greater vote efficiency this time, so may come closer in terms of seats. Indeed, it isn't inconceivable they could get fewer votes, but most seats. A complete turnaround.
PPC continuing to rise on the back of opposition to vaccines, vaxports, climate policies and gun laws. Amongst other things.
Things look much, much better for Justin than a fortnight ago.
Still time for it to change.
Tories heavily trying to convince PPC folk that they won't win a seat (probably) under FPTP.
Logic, mystifyingly, isn't working on them.

Indeed, ironically the Liberals might win the popular vote this time unlike 2019 as the Conservatives have lost more votes to the PPC than the Liberals have lost to the NDP now.

However it will be neck and neck on seats. The Conservatives look to be doing worse in Alberta than last time (albeit still well ahead) but better in Ontario, with the Liberals doing better in Quebec and the NDP doing well in BC. So it could well be a different pattern in each area, with the Conservatives picking up Liberal seats in Ontario and the Liberals gaining BQ seats in Quebec and the NDP gaining seats from the Conservatives and Liberals in BC. The Liberals may also pick up 1 or 2 seats from the 4 they lost in Alberta last time

Yes. The fall in Alberta, down from 64 % to c 50% will cost them only a few seats, as they are still massively ahead. But it accounts for a >1.5% drop in the national vote share.

How reliable are the provincial polls? Properly weighted, or like Scottish subsamples just a bit of the total that happens to live there?

TOPPING said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

This is a point I tried to make at the start of the pandemic; if the news provided a breakdown of deaths by disease every day, all the time, things would seem a lot more bleak than they are. Or at least people would be a lot more fearful than they are

100% agree.

Edit: and my point from the start was that if you put the PM, CMO, CSO on a podium talking to the nation about rock climbing pretty soon rock climbing would be banned.

Anabobazina said:

Picking up on @iSam 's point above, air pollution is a massive killer in the UK (40,000 pa / 110 a day according to this study).

If we published daily deaths related to air pollution, public policy on (electric) cars, road use and vehicle free city centres might be very different.

Hard to imagine we'd still have traffic on Oxford Street, for example.

https://www.rcplondon.ac.uk/projects/outputs/every-breath-we-take-lifelong-impact-air-pollution

NickPalmer said:

TOPPING said:

Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.

Yeah? https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/sep/12/emma-raducanu-victory-sparks-debate-over-multiculturalism-in-the-uk

Second most widely-read article today.

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

In any case, isn't the main benefit of vaxports to nudge the dubious into getting vaccinated (e.g. France)?

Yes, it’s just a Nudge strategy. Hence why Bozza has tried to notionally put it back on the table. The Nudge Unit won’t have been happy with Sajid’s unalloyed cancellation of the idea yesterday.

You don’t need to be Cass Sunstein to know that an on-again, off-again public health policy is counterproductive, destructive, and represents utter incompetence behind scenes.

Oh absolutely – I'm not defending it. The government is an effing shambles.

Gardenwalker said:

In their Brexit delusion, David L and Philip T are increasingly like the proverbial Japanese soldiers still fighting the war in the Filipino jungle.

Sorry, folks.
Hirohito abdicated a while back. Brexit is a crock.

Taz said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote time:

I'm in the office today, and it is much busier than it was 3 weeks ago. Still seats available on the train, so numbers not getting back to normal overall yet - if they ever will.

I popped out to Greggs at lunchtime (as you do). Certain posters may be interested to know that there were a number of HTGs from the nearby college out and about.

HTG ?

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

In any case, isn't the main benefit of vaxports to nudge the dubious into getting vaccinated (e.g. France)?

Yes, it’s just a Nudge strategy. Hence why Bozza has tried to notionally put it back on the table. The Nudge Unit won’t have been happy with Sajid’s unalloyed cancellation of the idea yesterday.

You don’t need to be Cass Sunstein to know that an on-again, off-again public health policy is counterproductive, destructive, and represents utter incompetence behind scenes.

Oh absolutely – I'm not defending it. The government is an effing shambles.

You would be one of my fave posters if it were not for your inexplicable anti-NZ prejudices, hah.

I have no personal issue with NZ! It's just not my cup of tea (too disperse, poor food scene, crap pubs). I loved the landscapes there and enjoyed a holiday there. But I wouldn't want to live there and think it's perennially overrated as a place to live. A mate who has moved there wants to come back!

isam said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

This is a point I tried to make at the start of the pandemic; if the news provided a breakdown of deaths by disease every day, all the time, things would seem a lot more bleak than they are. Or at least people would be a lot more fearful than they are

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

In any case, isn't the main benefit of vaxports to nudge the dubious into getting vaccinated (e.g. France)?

Yes, it’s just a Nudge strategy. Hence why Bozza has tried to notionally put it back on the table. The Nudge Unit won’t have been happy with Sajid’s unalloyed cancellation of the idea yesterday.

You don’t need to be Cass Sunstein to know that an on-again, off-again public health policy is counterproductive, destructive, and represents utter incompetence behind scenes.

Oh absolutely – I'm not defending it. The government is an effing shambles.

You would be one of my fave posters if it were not for your inexplicable anti-NZ prejudices, hah.

I have no personal issue with NZ! It's just not my cup of tea (too disperse, poor food scene, crap pubs). I loved the landscapes there and enjoyed a holiday there. But I wouldn't want to live there and think it's perennially overrated as a place to live. A mate who has moved there wants to come back!

It’s a wonderful place. I’m very privileged to have a NZ passport.

I’ll agree the pubs are diabolical, though.
All seven of them.

I hope to retire there, for 3-6 months a year, when my youngest leaves school.

Ha! It would be nice to avoid the English winter every year, I grant you.

Re: NZ pubs, reminds me of that spoof tweet at the start of pandemic whereby Jacinda said words to effect of: "We will take action. We will close all our schools and offices, and both of our restaurants."

malcolmg said:

Dura_Ace said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Let's hope so.

And Patel.

Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.

The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.

It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has

Who to Trade?

Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.

Has she worked out to use a phone yet?

They are such dummies. Dimmer than a 5 watt bulb.

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:

TOPPING said:

Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.

Yeah? https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/sep/12/emma-raducanu-victory-sparks-debate-over-multiculturalism-in-the-uk

Second most widely-read article today.

Gah!!

OK in which case I'll have to repost this:

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/british-sporting-success-making-us-look-like-dicks-remainers-admit-20210913212016

Perhaps relevant to that article but I'm not going to read it (the Graun's).

I'm old enough to remember when the Daily Mash used to be funny.

malcolmg said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Selebian said:

Heh, lol for my gullibility

The original isn't much saner, mind (assuming that version is genuine)
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/08/21/of-all-the-weird-things-in-this-liz-truss-picture-the-framed-dog-photo-is-the-weirdest/

Original (from Truss's twitter)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECZ02mUWkAAf7R0?format=jpg&name=medium

You mean fake when she saw what a diddy she was.

OldKingCole said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Stuartinromford said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

In any case, isn't the main benefit of vaxports to nudge the dubious into getting vaccinated (e.g. France)?

Yes, it’s just a Nudge strategy. Hence why Bozza has tried to notionally put it back on the table. The Nudge Unit won’t have been happy with Sajid’s unalloyed cancellation of the idea yesterday.

You don’t need to be Cass Sunstein to know that an on-again, off-again public health policy is counterproductive, destructive, and represents utter incompetence behind scenes.

Oh absolutely – I'm not defending it. The government is an effing shambles.

You would be one of my fave posters if it were not for your inexplicable anti-NZ prejudices, hah.

I have no personal issue with NZ! It's just not my cup of tea (too disperse, poor food scene, crap pubs). I loved the landscapes there and enjoyed a holiday there. But I wouldn't want to live there and think it's perennially overrated as a place to live. A mate who has moved there wants to come back!

It’s a wonderful place. I’m very privileged to have a NZ passport.

I’ll agree the pubs are diabolical, though.
All seven of them.

I hope to retire there, for 3-6 months a year, when my youngest leaves school.

Ha! It would be nice to avoid the English winter every year, I grant you.

Re: NZ pubs, reminds me of that spoof tweet at the start of pandemic whereby Jacinda said words to effect of: "We will take action. We will close all our schools and offices, and both of our restaurants."

Some years Mrs C & I had a (very enjoyable) trip to NZ. Met several people of roughly our age then who were spending 6 months in UK, and 6 in NZ.
Not, to my mind a bad idea, although now if I were left alone I'd probably try and spend 3-4 months a year with younger son and family, in Bangkok.
However, as Mrs C is a little younger than me than me, and fitter, the chances of that are very, very low.

FrancisUrquhart said:

So 12-15 year olds with finally get a jab....all that wasted time, when we could have sorted this in the summer holidays.

FrancisUrquhart said:

So 12-15 year olds with finally get a jab....all that wasted time, when we could have sorted this in the summer holidays.

eek said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So 12-15 year olds with finally get a jab....all that wasted time, when we could have sorted this in the summer holidays.

It's an age group that is far easier vaccinated in term time rather than outside it.

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

NickPalmer said:

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

With my friends who weren't born in the UK, if I banged on as much about it as the media and twatterati do, i think i would find myself uninvited pretty quickly.....

I recently had to fill in a questionnaire about the ethnicity of my children.

Utterly depressing, I was tempted to fill in the box marked other as 'Melting pot of many civilisations and culture.'

Apparently it is essential to capture their ethnicity and the social class of their parents.

For class did you write "None"?

One used to have to enter "race" on US visa applications. A well-known (white) British journalist was refused a visa after putting "human".

One of my daughters, when asked to fill in a form like that, included a chunk of the family tree and a detailed statement of her heritage, in handwriting that an ant would read as small, in the margin.

For some reason I was very proud.

All the way back to her/your Romanian great-great-great-grandparents?

Gardensquare said:

maaarsh said:

isam said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Jeez. What planet does Johnson live on. How on earth can bringing in vaccine passports for venues help if he does it later in the winter "if needed" as he is now saying?

They haven't a f*cking clue what they are doing from one hour to the next.

I get it.

Since we're not going for a Zero Covid strategy there's no problem with people going out and catching Covid now. Indeed everyone who does reduces the risk of Covid being caught in the Winter.

If in the Winter there's a risk of the NHS being overwhelemed, that would be the time to introduce restrictions if they're required, not now.

Would you really prefer it and be happier if they were introduced unnecessarily today, just because it was decided they might be useful in the Winter?

If the health service is about (yet again) to be overwhelmed then I predict it will be far more about flu than covid so a covid vaxport will be a waste of time. But anyway it will be lockdowns that are needed and urgently (under the mindset of SAGE and ministers to date) rather than pratting around with having to show papers to get into a pub.

There is a no COVID.

Having reviewed the list of activities which can potentially spread COVID and the list of activities that PBers confidently assert can't possibly cause COVID spread, the intersecting set is empty.

So there is no way for COVID to spread, R is 0. The end.

That said 2018 = 27,000 deaths, 2019 = 30,000 deaths. From flu.

So 100 deaths a day for 300 days. Or 300 deaths a day for 100 days.

Not remembering the daily stats then, however.

This is a point I tried to make at the start of the pandemic; if the news provided a breakdown of deaths by disease every day, all the time, things would seem a lot more bleak than they are. Or at least people would be a lot more fearful than they are

Maybe we should start publishing the stats as percentage rates to give people a better perspective?

Today 0.00015% of the population died from Covid.

incredibly the average person thinks 7% of the population has died from covid equivalent to about 5 million people

IshmaelZ said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:

TOPPING said:

Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.

Yeah? https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/sep/12/emma-raducanu-victory-sparks-debate-over-multiculturalism-in-the-uk

Second most widely-read article today.

Gah!!

OK in which case I'll have to repost this:

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/british-sporting-success-making-us-look-like-dicks-remainers-admit-20210913212016

Perhaps relevant to that article but I'm not going to read it (the Graun's).

I'm old enough to remember when the Daily Mash used to be funny.

It's bloody funny still as witness the above.

Interesting to me is that it is making fun of remainers whereas it has in the past (I don't look at it all the time) made fun of Brexiters. Such as this, one of my favourites (a long time ago so you will find it funny).

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-claims-hius-life-being-ruined-by-immigration-but-cant-explain-how-20170227122932

That is achingly unfunny. Sorry, but there it is. It's like saying I can't be seriously opposed to racism, because as a whitey in West Devon I don't encounter much of it.

There was a funny writer. He left.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/duncan-smith-denies-affair-with-jackal-2013060370602

Malmesbury said:

malcolmg said:

Dura_Ace said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Let's hope so.

And Patel.

Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.

The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.

It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has

Who to Trade?

Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.

Has she worked out to use a phone yet?

They are such dummies. Dimmer than a 5 watt bulb.

Only slightly more (or less stupid) than people who fall for faked photos on the inter webs.

IshmaelZ said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Selebian said:

Heh, lol for my gullibility

The original isn't much saner, mind (assuming that version is genuine)
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/08/21/of-all-the-weird-things-in-this-liz-truss-picture-the-framed-dog-photo-is-the-weirdest/

Original (from Truss's twitter)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECZ02mUWkAAf7R0?format=jpg&name=medium

I don't see that's an improvement except for the phone being right way up. Why the dog guillotine complete with builders bucket for dogs head to fall into? And the strangest thing of all is the fact the utterly weird picture in the frame in the fake version, is for real.

FrancisUrquhart said:

So 12-15 year olds with finally get a jab....all that wasted time, when we could have sorted this in the summer holidays.

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:

TOPPING said:

Nick precisely no one IRL is associating Emma Raducanu and politics.

Yeah? https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/sep/12/emma-raducanu-victory-sparks-debate-over-multiculturalism-in-the-uk

Second most widely-read article today.

Gah!!

OK in which case I'll have to repost this:

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/british-sporting-success-making-us-look-like-dicks-remainers-admit-20210913212016

Perhaps relevant to that article but I'm not going to read it (the Graun's).

I'm old enough to remember when the Daily Mash used to be funny.

It's bloody funny still as witness the above.

Interesting to me is that it is making fun of remainers whereas it has in the past (I don't look at it all the time) made fun of Brexiters. Such as this, one of my favourites (a long time ago so you will find it funny).

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-claims-hius-life-being-ruined-by-immigration-but-cant-explain-how-20170227122932

That's just...... NOT funny

I don't mind the target, although it is a pretty easy one to aim at. Yet it still misses. Doesn't even make me smile

rcs1000 said:

Best Covid vaccine statistic:

https://twitter.com/c4m3lo/status/1437349586499215363

37.4% of all deaths of unvaccinated people are caused by COVID-19
0.8% of all deaths of fully vaccinated people are caused by COVID-19