Is EdSec Gavin going to be a victim in the re-shuffle? – politicalbetting.com

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

@eek have you seen the original source on the calculations here: https://debtcamel.co.uk/earning-to-replace-uc-cut/

It matches what I have calculated here in the past, the marginal tax on someone on UC paying Tax and NI is 75%. For someone to earn £20 extra requires earning gross £79.50 extra. 🤬

And this is before the government's increase in tax rates just announced. And furthermore its without including Employers NI either.

I've not had a chance as I'm still trying to work out why the paper @Gardenwalker is fixated by uses assumptions that are fundamentally wrong (i.e. west texas crude as a substitute for Brent when the prices are known to no longer correlate due to the shale oil boom of 2017-19).

Fixated?

Yet you are the one sniffing around the assumptions and citing the “shale oil boom” for why the Brexit vote couldn’t possibly - oh no - have generated some inflation for consumers.

I just find it very strange why they don't use the world's go to standard product which is Brent Oil for their oil price assumptions.

The fact they don't screams out to me as dubious and that brings everything else into question.

My other posts also ask why the cost is only 2.9% when currency changes showed a 10% change in my purchasing power while I was working in Europe.

So they simultaneously underestimate and overestimate inflation? Ok.

Where did I say that?

I'm starting to think you are either a windup merchant or have very poor reading comprehension skills.

It is the implication of the “biases” you claim to have identified.

One of which seems to be based on your personal experience of purchasing power in 2016…

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dean, decade and a half, at least, if not two decades. They began, I believe, during the boom.

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

StuartDickson said:

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

BlancheLivermore said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Kerrringgghhhhh....

BBC News - Raducanu: US Open champion celebrated in China for her heritage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58541314

For all the talk about her Romanian ancestry, it's her Chinese heritage that could be problematic for her, if you know what I mean.

Is there news from the Romanian press?

She couldn't have done it if she'd been born in Romania..
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/ctp-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-nu-se-nastea-in-canada-era-foarte-putin-probabil-sa-fie-unde-este-astazi-3732158

British presenter Adil Ray says "If you play in a tennis final, you are British, if you are a waitress, you are Romanian"
https://www.libertatea.ro/sport/mesaj-controversat-al-unui-prezentator-britanic-despre-emma-raducanu-daca-joci-intr-o-finala-de-tenis-esti-britanica-daca-esti-chelnerita-esti-romanca-3731036

I'm shocked that GMB is trying to stir up controversy.

But she's clearly not Romanian.
She was born in Canada and moved to the UK when she was small. A pedant might have it that she is Canadian, but most people would accept that she is British. She grew up here.
Romanian doesn't come into it.
My mother is Scottish. Does that make me Scottish? Of course not. I grew up in England.

Conservative ministers think you should have a vote in the next independence referendum:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/let-scots-in-whole-of-uk-vote-on-independence-boris-johnson-is-urged-8d09pdxcl

Blood and soil Tories. Who’d’ve thunk it?

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

eek said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just go for depressing - as given that we are supposed to have a benefit system that is fit for purpose they only exist because of market / government failure

My one concern is the unknown question of does the existence of food banks create additional demand for food banks.

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

FPPT.
Canada polling. Voting a week today. Average of last 10 polls, final days 8-11 September. So after the French debate, and straddling the English.

Libs 31.9 (-1.2)
Con 31.4 (-2.9)
NDP 18.4 (+2.4)
PPC 7.7 (+6.1)
BQ 6.0 (-1.6)
Green 3.6 (-3.0) Changes with last election.

Trudeau is coming with a late run again. Ironically, though, the Tories are getting greater vote efficiency this time, so may come closer in terms of seats. Indeed, it isn't inconceivable they could get fewer votes, but most seats. A complete turnaround.
PPC continuing to rise on the back of opposition to vaccines, vaxports, climate policies and gun laws. Amongst other things.
Things look much, much better for Justin than a fortnight ago.
Still time for it to change.
Tories heavily trying to convince PPC folk that they won't win a seat (probably) under FPTP.
Logic, mystifyingly, isn't working on them.

Indeed, ironically the Liberals might win the popular vote this time unlike 2019 as the Conservatives have lost more votes to the PPC than the Liberals have lost to the NDP now.

However it will be neck and neck on seats. The Conservatives look to be doing worse in Alberta than last time (albeit still well ahead) but better in Ontario, with the Liberals doing better in Quebec and the NDP doing well in BC. So it could well be a different pattern in each area, with the Conservatives picking up Liberal seats in Ontario and the Liberals gaining BQ seats in Quebec and the NDP gaining seats from the Conservatives and Liberals in BC. The Liberals may also pick up 1 or 2 seats from the 4 they lost in Alberta last time

Yes. The fall in Alberta, down from 64 % to c 50% will cost them only a few seats, as they are still massively ahead. But it accounts for a >1.5% drop in the national vote share.

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

northern_monkey said:

One in the eye for the doomsters and gloomsters:

Brexit triumph as crown stamp FINALLY returns to pint glasses after 15 years

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489841/brexit-news-european-commission-pint-glasses-eu-latest

I genuinely hadn’t realised it had gone.

Stark_Dawning said:

northern_monkey said:

One in the eye for the doomsters and gloomsters:

Brexit triumph as crown stamp FINALLY returns to pint glasses after 15 years

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489841/brexit-news-european-commission-pint-glasses-eu-latest

I genuinely hadn’t realised it had gone.

I doubt anyone else realized it had gone either, including Farage and (until a few days ago) the inventor of this wheeze. Throughout the entire Brexit kerfuffle - the return of blue passports, multi-coloured fire extinguishers etc. - I don't recall the symbol on pint glasses being mentioned once.

Northern_Al said:

HYUFD said:

New 2022 French presidential election poll

1st round

Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Bertrand 16%
Melenchon 11%

2nd round

Macron 54%
Le Pen 46%


https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1437336958502592512?s=20

Goodwin will be disappointed by the second round figures.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selebian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selebian said:

Dura_Ace said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Let's hope so.

And Patel.

Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.

The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.

It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has

Who to Trade?

Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.

Has she worked out to use a phone yet?

Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.

Liz Truss.

https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152

Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.

To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?

Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.

eek said:

Stark_Dawning said:

northern_monkey said:

One in the eye for the doomsters and gloomsters:

Brexit triumph as crown stamp FINALLY returns to pint glasses after 15 years

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489841/brexit-news-european-commission-pint-glasses-eu-latest

I genuinely hadn’t realised it had gone.

I doubt anyone else realized it had gone either, including Farage and (until a few days ago) the inventor of this wheeze. Throughout the entire Brexit kerfuffle - the return of blue passports, multi-coloured fire extinguishers etc. - I don't recall the symbol on pint glasses being mentioned once.

multi-coloured fire extinguishers? I thought they were colour coded for a reason (i.e. pick the appropriate extinguisher for the type / source of fire).

Philip_Thompson said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

Bollocks. People have always had the possibility of falling on hard times - sometimes due to gambling, sometimes due to job losses, sometimes due to drugs, sometimes due to unexpected bills. Sometimes for issues that are their responsibility, sometimes for very bad luck.

Prior to 2010 one of the most common adverts on TV was for Wonga "payday" loans. So why were people feeling the need to turn to Wonga prior to 2010 and why weren't foodbanks available instead?

The fact that we have charities able to help people if they fall on hard times, instead of Wonga, is an undeniably good thing and shows how far we have come in building a Big Society.

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selebian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selebian said:

Dura_Ace said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Let's hope so.

And Patel.

Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.

The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.

It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has

Who to Trade?

Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.

Has she worked out to use a phone yet?

Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.

Liz Truss.

https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152

Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.

To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?

Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.

They all look bloody stupid standing like that. Less of a power pose and more of "I'm standing like a small child who's forgotten how to walk" pose.

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

tlg86 said:

Daily politics is going talk about Emma Raducanu and immigration.

tlg86 said:

Daily politics is going talk about Emma Raducanu and immigration.

HYUFD said:

New 2022 French presidential election poll

1st round

Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Bertrand 16%
Melenchon 11%

2nd round

Macron 54%
Le Pen 46%


https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1437336958502592512?s=20

Stark_Dawning said:

eek said:

Stark_Dawning said:

northern_monkey said:

One in the eye for the doomsters and gloomsters:

Brexit triumph as crown stamp FINALLY returns to pint glasses after 15 years

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489841/brexit-news-european-commission-pint-glasses-eu-latest

I genuinely hadn’t realised it had gone.

I doubt anyone else realized it had gone either, including Farage and (until a few days ago) the inventor of this wheeze. Throughout the entire Brexit kerfuffle - the return of blue passports, multi-coloured fire extinguishers etc. - I don't recall the symbol on pint glasses being mentioned once.

multi-coloured fire extinguishers? I thought they were colour coded for a reason (i.e. pick the appropriate extinguisher for the type / source of fire).

Yes, but the EU was going to make them all red as that is easier to see in a smoke-filled room.

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

Bollocks. People have always had the possibility of falling on hard times - sometimes due to gambling, sometimes due to job losses, sometimes due to drugs, sometimes due to unexpected bills. Sometimes for issues that are their responsibility, sometimes for very bad luck.

Prior to 2010 one of the most common adverts on TV was for Wonga "payday" loans. So why were people feeling the need to turn to Wonga prior to 2010 and why weren't foodbanks available instead?

The fact that we have charities able to help people if they fall on hard times, instead of Wonga, is an undeniably good thing and shows how far we have come in building a Big Society.

I knew you’d say something like that! It’s fine, we just see these things very differently in this regard.

I need to peel myself away from this site, why I bother indulging in pointless, futile discussions with anonymous randoms is beyond me. It’s not like I’ve got the stamina and endurance for it, I lose interest too quickly.

Difficult to do so though.

Theuniondivvie said:

algarkirk said:

Northern_Al said:

HYUFD said:

New 2022 French presidential election poll

1st round

Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Bertrand 16%
Melenchon 11%

2nd round

Macron 54%
Le Pen 46%


https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1437336958502592512?s=20

Goodwin will be disappointed by the second round figures.

Is the determination to get ludicrous digs in at Matthew Goodwin for a good reason or just because he is the only centre right moderate academic whose name people can remember?

It's cos he's a right wing academic who constantly wrangles data to support his populist political outlook and deletes his own tweets when subsequent events make him look like a dick.

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selebian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selebian said:

Dura_Ace said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Let's hope so.

And Patel.

Williamson is a loyalist so I doubt it, removing Patel would also make her a focal point for rightwing opposition to the government on the backbenches.

The only move I expect is Raab to Justice with Truss becoming Foreign Secretary.

It is possible Gove gets a promotion too though as he is competent whatever other problems he has

Who to Trade?

Keep Truss doing it and bring it within the FCDO.

Has she worked out to use a phone yet?

Who is that in the photo in the photo (if you get what I mean - the photo on the table text to Truss) doing a Tory power stance? I can see it's not Javid, this time, but can't work out whether it's Truss.

Liz Truss.

https://twitter.com/jamin2g/status/1127608175149105152

Oh lord, this really is bizarre-o-land.

To do one ill advised photoshoot could be unfortunate.
To do another and feature the photo from the first in the second.... Well, it starts to look a teeny bit careless/odd, doesn't it?

Personally I like to think it is a game amongst Tory MPs, started by George.

They all look bloody stupid standing like that. Less of a power pose and more of "I'm standing like a small child who's forgotten how to walk" pose.

I've long suspected management consultants, behavioural specialists and coaches who advise on things like pose etc, are just making shit up to see what they can get people to do, no matter how stupid.

Blackadder III ruined power poses forever when Prince George was being coached by actors on how to stand.

Edit: Ah, I see Taz got in their first.

algarkirk said:

Northern_Al said:

HYUFD said:

New 2022 French presidential election poll

1st round

Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Bertrand 16%
Melenchon 11%

2nd round

Macron 54%
Le Pen 46%


https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1437336958502592512?s=20

Goodwin will be disappointed by the second round figures.

Is the determination to get ludicrous digs in at Matthew Goodwin for a good reason or just because he is the only centre right moderate academic whose name people can remember?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Of course our Emma is British. She speaks with the same posh southern English accent as all our tennis players do. Because they are the only type that the LTA promote.

Andy Murray says hello!

Taz said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

Bollocks. People have always had the possibility of falling on hard times - sometimes due to gambling, sometimes due to job losses, sometimes due to drugs, sometimes due to unexpected bills. Sometimes for issues that are their responsibility, sometimes for very bad luck.

Prior to 2010 one of the most common adverts on TV was for Wonga "payday" loans. So why were people feeling the need to turn to Wonga prior to 2010 and why weren't foodbanks available instead?

The fact that we have charities able to help people if they fall on hard times, instead of Wonga, is an undeniably good thing and shows how far we have come in building a Big Society.

I knew you’d say something like that! It’s fine, we just see these things very differently in this regard.

I need to peel myself away from this site, why I bother indulging in pointless, futile discussions with anonymous randoms is beyond me. It’s not like I’ve got the stamina and endurance for it, I lose interest too quickly.

Difficult to do so though.

How is he an anonymous random when he uses his own name in discussions, I don’t always agree with him but in this he has made a point worthy of consideration.

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Of course our Emma is British. She speaks with the same posh southern English accent as all our tennis players do. Because they are the only type that the LTA promote.

Andy Murray says hello!

And Emma says "bună ziua"?

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

Bollocks. People have always had the possibility of falling on hard times - sometimes due to gambling, sometimes due to job losses, sometimes due to drugs, sometimes due to unexpected bills. Sometimes for issues that are their responsibility, sometimes for very bad luck.

Prior to 2010 one of the most common adverts on TV was for Wonga "payday" loans. So why were people feeling the need to turn to Wonga prior to 2010 and why weren't foodbanks available instead?

The fact that we have charities able to help people if they fall on hard times, instead of Wonga, is an undeniably good thing and shows how far we have come in building a Big Society.

Before that there were pawnbrokers too and doorstep money lending for short term loans both legit and non legit.

Exactly, there could always be people hitting hard times.

The bad thing is that pre-2010 then there were ridiculous regulations preventing food banks from being referred to, meaning people turned to Wonga, or Loan Sharks, or Pawnbrokers or worse.

That people are turning to Food Banks instead of Loan Sharks surely is the most successful element of the Big Society Cameron was elected to create. It should be celebrated to the rafters as an entirely good thing.

Stark_Dawning said:

northern_monkey said:

One in the eye for the doomsters and gloomsters:

Brexit triumph as crown stamp FINALLY returns to pint glasses after 15 years

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489841/brexit-news-european-commission-pint-glasses-eu-latest

I genuinely hadn’t realised it had gone.

I doubt anyone else realized it had gone either, including Farage and (until a few days ago) the inventor of this wheeze. Throughout the entire Brexit kerfuffle - the return of blue passports, multi-coloured fire extinguishers etc. - I don't recall the symbol on pint glasses being mentioned once.

FrancisUrquhart said:

With my friends who weren't born in the UK, if I banged on as much about it as the media and twatterati do, i think i would find myself uninvited pretty quickly.....

northern_monkey said:

Taz said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

northern_monkey said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

Cicero said:

Malmesbury said:

Gardenwalker said:

Northern_Al said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Gardenwalker said:

New research just published in the International Economic Review.

The decline in sterling due to Brexit raised consumer prices 2.9%, costing the average household £870 a year.

https://twitter.com/thom_sampson/status/1437317032391872514?s=21

So the average household spends £30k on consumer items per year ?

It also boosted wealth creators and led to a drop in the trade deficit.

So I suppose it depends on who you have sympathy with - wealth creators or wealth consumers.

Brexit “boosted wealth creators”.

LOL.

You’ve never met a wealth creator before, have you?

I work in manufacturing.

So yes I have.

Of course you do.

Why would you doubt that ?

I've mentioned it many times over the years and its not an uncommon sector to work in for middle aged blokes in Yorkshire.

Several other PBers work in manufacturing as well.

That's probably why UK productivity is so low - manufacturers spending too much time on PB.

One of the known issues for U.K. productivity is poor management capability compared to OECD peers.

The problem is largely that management is a skill that people are supposed to find lying around in the street or something. Most MBAs don't seem to teach useful skills in actual management. Cutting costs in a way that won't blow back on you until you escape to the next job is a moronic, but common trait.

The Uk has several structural problems:

1) low productivity, which derives from a variety of other issues, including, but not limited to, poor management, low skills, low investment, short term capital management, weak infrastructure.
2) Planning policy combined with very concentrated land ownership which is a major contributor to expensive, low quality housing, often in the wrong place. It is a disadvantage that the UK is, compared to say France, quite densely populated, but the cost differential per Km of high speed rail, for example, should not be of the order of 20x more
3) Financial system offers little to no support to SMEs, and availablity of start up capital from banks is zero.
4) Entrepreneurship is increasingly tied up in red tape and there are several tax and other disincentives to self employment.
5) Personal debt levels is at crisis levels, even small interest rate rises could trigger collapse, Government debt is a real problem.
6) Major issues in health and social care- much discussed here
7) Internationally weak school age education levels- PISA rankings are mediocre, even while elite Universities are generally good.

The problem is that these long term problems have not been addressed for decades and now the combination of Covid and Brexit is set to deliver a serious inflation shock.

BoE is forecasting 4% inflation, Q1/2 but that is based on no rise in food prices and falling Utility bills (but already we are seeing 40% gas and electicity rises being signalled for next month) and that means a £300-400 average hit per household. Meanwhile the Ni increase costs an average of 250, meanwhile Brexit red tape and shortages could see 10-15% food inflation. So we are not looking at 4% but more like 7%. Also note that Bailey is not regarded in the financial markets as a particularly heavyweight figure- too close to the government- and so his policies will not get a clear run. He is being set up to be the fall guy, but it will be too late, by the time he is writing his letters, then there will be a full blown Sterling crisis on us. The BoE need to tighten in line with the Fed and that means that any Covid recovery will be dead by mid year and the Uk could be facing a real return to the 70s: Stagflation.

In the end "its the economy stupid". So Im sure other people here laughed a little when Johnson said he wanted to be in power longer than Thatcher. Well, The political consequences of the inflation/interest shock will be severe and I would be bearing this in mind in any betting over the next 12-18 months.

Excellent, excellent post.

Should be a thread header.

I am not quite as gloomy as you in terms of predictions, but your main points are totally bang-on.

I would add that UC is being cut against this backdrop, too.

I can foresee a large increase in food banks over the next few months especially late October.

It is entertaining and depressing in equal measure when new Tory MPs in red wall areas ignore food banks as if they don't exist and there are no problems for their constituents. And even worse when they pay attention and start claiming credit for them - "there weren't all these food banks under Labour" was one line uttered.

Its clearly hard for some commentators to accept just how broken the economy is.

Food banks are simultaneously one of the most wonderful and most depressing things about the past decade in this country.

I would just say wonderful. Its charity and the idea that charity is depressing is absurd.

The idea that nobody ever had issues in the past is a nonsense, the only thing is that the support the food banks offer were never there in the past.

The idea that there is still a need for charity so people eat properly is absurd and obscene. Charity’s good for raising money for a dog’s home. The fact that we need charities to feed people, clothe people and raise money for hospitals and the like is a sad indictment of how selfish we are as a species and how screwed out priorities are.

Because good people will contribute again and again and selfish bastards never do.

You won’t agree with any of that, I know.

Not that it’ll ever change.

Bollocks. People have always had the possibility of falling on hard times - sometimes due to gambling, sometimes due to job losses, sometimes due to drugs, sometimes due to unexpected bills. Sometimes for issues that are their responsibility, sometimes for very bad luck.

Prior to 2010 one of the most common adverts on TV was for Wonga "payday" loans. So why were people feeling the need to turn to Wonga prior to 2010 and why weren't foodbanks available instead?

The fact that we have charities able to help people if they fall on hard times, instead of Wonga, is an undeniably good thing and shows how far we have come in building a Big Society.

I knew you’d say something like that! It’s fine, we just see these things very differently in this regard.

I need to peel myself away from this site, why I bother indulging in pointless, futile discussions with anonymous randoms is beyond me. It’s not like I’ve got the stamina and endurance for it, I lose interest too quickly.

Difficult to do so though.

How is he an anonymous random when he uses his own name in discussions, I don’t always agree with him but in this he has made a point worthy of consideration.

Well, yes, if you assume his real name is indeed PT. But no reason to suppose it isn't. Didn't mean anonymous random derogatively. Most posters are, me included obvs, and we're all very random.

I'm glad use of payday loans has fallen. If that is because more people are using foodbanks then, yes, foodbanks are doing a Good Thing in that regard.

But it's obscene that there is still a need for either of them. In a world of an abundance of food, food banks should be obsolete. They probably never will be. Because we are a selfish species. That's why we are so successful as a species, and why we're ruining the planet.

Cyclefree said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-passports-can-still-help-defeat-winter-wave-no-10-insists-3zv90szj8

Well, that didn't take long. Do Cabinet Ministers talk to each other?

Taz said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote time:

I'm in the office today, and it is much busier than it was 3 weeks ago. Still seats available on the train, so numbers not getting back to normal overall yet - if they ever will.

I popped out to Greggs at lunchtime (as you do). Certain posters may be interested to know that there were a number of HTGs from the nearby college out and about.

HTG ?

Foxy said:

Taz said:

SandyRentool said:

Anecdote time:

I'm in the office today, and it is much busier than it was 3 weeks ago. Still seats available on the train, so numbers not getting back to normal overall yet - if they ever will.

I popped out to Greggs at lunchtime (as you do). Certain posters may be interested to know that there were a number of HTGs from the nearby college out and about.

HTG ?

Hot Teenage Girls.

An interest of some posters and some senior Royals.

Theuniondivvie said:

algarkirk said:

Northern_Al said:

HYUFD said:

New 2022 French presidential election poll

1st round

Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Bertrand 16%
Melenchon 11%

2nd round

Macron 54%
Le Pen 46%


https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1437336958502592512?s=20

Goodwin will be disappointed by the second round figures.

Is the determination to get ludicrous digs in at Matthew Goodwin for a good reason or just because he is the only centre right moderate academic whose name people can remember?

It's cos he's a right wing academic who constantly wrangles data to support his populist political outlook and deletes his own tweets when subsequent events make him look like a dick.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, knotty. The exchange rate is the same it was 5 years ago. Preceding this, the pound was stronger but that was part of a spike (in December 2008 it was down to 1.04 during the financial crisis trough). There's been a general declining trend from highs of around 1.67 in 2000.

It probably did cause some depreciation but not a staggering amount. Supply chain problems and COVID directly (linked, of course) have been more dramatic.