politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We have cross-over with Populus online. CON 36% LAB 35%
CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays
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Winning here!!!!!!!0
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Oh dear all those tweets start to sound bitter and tweetsted!0
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On the day Andrew Cooper gets a peerage!0
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But Mike this is the killer finding
Since the election.
Con no change, UKIP plus 8.0 -
I think we all know the real killer finding - JackW - Ed M will never.....0
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and right on cue Dr Steve Fisher has the Tories moving back above 300 in his forecast today.0
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Much as though I like this poll, it being the silly season, it is probably unreliable. The tories would have a 5 point lead if all the nice Tory people weren't away on holiday.
Did the Tories hold all 3 council seats last night? No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get 2 threads ago to scoll down past the first few comments. I know the LibDems were UKippered in their seat and the Greens held their seat.0 -
Jon Williams @WilliamsJon · 9 mins
.@StateDept confirms #ISIS taken Mosul dam. Threatens entire Tigris plain: could put Mosul under 100 feet of water, Baghdad 16 feet. #Iraq
Jezz H.....0 -
Populus is useful in that it gives actual figures as well as rounded %ages.
So using Table 3, I have tried to look at what proportion of new voters compared with their 2010 votes (retained, gained and lost) each party is getting.
So CONS are getting 12% of their votes from 'new' voters.
LAB are getting 18%
LDs are getting 11%
UKIP are getting >30%
Green are getting >40%
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Lefties appear on hols on pb today... i'm back tho... hoorar.0
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Baxter converging on Jack's ARSE.
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I've added a chart showing the Monday-Friday effect with Populus0
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That assumption about holiday polls doesn't hold any more in the era of tablets and smartphones. What better way of spending the time on a family holiday than filling in an online voting survey!Easterross said:Much as though I like this poll, it being the silly season, it is probably unreliable. The tories would have a 5 point lead if all the nice Tory people weren't away on holiday.
Did the Tories hold all 3 council seats last night? No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get 2 threads ago to scoll down past the first few comments. I know the LibDems were UKippered in their seat and the Greens held their seat.
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If Peter Kellner is right and we apply his adjustment (ie Lab get 25 seats less than UNS) then Con would be ahead on seats even with only a 1% vote lead.0
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For the 1st time I am starting to believe NO might actually win and then up pops someone else I know who stuns me by saying s/he is voting YESJackW said:@Easterross
What is your present assessment of the scale of the NO victory next month ?0 -
Crossover
Ed's calling out of the PM over Gaza was clearly a masterstroke.0 -
You've shouldn't have had two dozen oysters for lunch Mike ..... especially in August.MikeSmithson said:
That assumption about holiday polls doesn't hold any more in the era of tablets and smartphones. What better way of spending the time on a family holiday than filling in an online voting survey!Easterross said:Much as though I like this poll, it being the silly season, it is probably unreliable. The tories would have a 5 point lead if all the nice Tory people weren't away on holiday.
Did the Tories hold all 3 council seats last night? No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get 2 threads ago to scoll down past the first few comments. I know the LibDems were UKippered in their seat and the Greens held their seat.
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Was interesting that Monday's poll was as good as a normal Friday poll.MikeSmithson said:I've added a chart showing the Monday-Friday effect with Populus
Suspect Lab will be back in the lead again next Monday but will it be the normal 5-7% Lab lead or a 1-3% lead?
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Fortunately Alex has some legal advice on this, oh wait.
The economist also rubbished Alex Salmond's threat to walk away from Scotland's share of UK national debt without a currency union, saying such a move would have "repercussions" in Europe.
Other European countries with secessionist movements – such as Spain – may not want to give a debt-free Scotland EU membership for fear of creating a precedent, it was suggested.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11019890/Scottish-independence-Keeping-pound-without-currency-union-would-see-banks-relocate.html0 -
Is this a Warsi departing bounce ?0
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ISIS has already used Iraq’s water supply as a weapon. Earlier this year it seized control of the Falluja Dam, in Anbar Province, and flooded a vast area that sent thousands of refugees fleeing, submerged hundreds of homes and several schools and interrupted the water supply to southern Iraq.Slackbladder said:Jon Williams @WilliamsJon · 9 mins
.@StateDept confirms #ISIS taken Mosul dam. Threatens entire Tigris plain: could put Mosul under 100 feet of water, Baghdad 16 feet. #Iraq
Jezz H.....
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/08/world/middleeast/isis-forces-in-iraq.html?_r=0
Strategically it would make sense for ISIS to blow up the dam, Baghdad will be a very tough nut for them to crack, a flooded Baghdad would be easier pickings with the city in chaos/disarray.0 -
Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?0
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More Populus bullsh*t
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ISIS has already used Iraq’s water supply as a weapon
What on earth is the Iraqi government doing???? Hitler had 4 million heavily armed and extremely well disciplined troops. ISIS are not much more than a thinly spread thuggish rabble driving about in unprotected pick up trucks.
What a tw8t al Maliki is.0 -
You shouldn't worry about that.Easterross said:
For the 1st time I am starting to believe NO might actually win and then up pops someone else I know who stuns me by saying s/he is voting YESJackW said:@Easterross
What is your present assessment of the scale of the NO victory next month ?
Shortly before the 1983 GE a right wing (G Khan Esq type) peer of my acquaint advised me of his absolute certainty that Michael Foot was about to form a landslide government because his wife said she was voting Labour.
Cue uproarious laughter, stern looks, a substantial wager .... and several weeks later a handsome addition to the Mrs JackW Shoe Fund.
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Not quite! Tories polled 37% in 2010 - not 36%.TheScreamingEagles said:But Mike this is the killer finding
Since the election.
Con no change, UKIP plus 8.0 -
There’s a distinct whiff of 'good news’ will not be tolerated about this thread.0
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36.1%justin124 said:
Not quite! Tories polled 37% in 2010 - not 36%.TheScreamingEagles said:But Mike this is the killer finding
Since the election.
Con no change, UKIP plus 8.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/0 -
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london
More importantly the British government couldn't give a tinkers: nor can the the EU much to their eternal disgrace.0 -
That's the UK figure - but pollsters always give us the GB figure. Look at Mike's table!0
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Any idea how much of the Tory figure comes from ex Lib Dems?0
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Wonder what Saddam would have done about ISIS?taffys said:ISIS has already used Iraq’s water supply as a weapon
What on earth is the Iraqi government doing???? Hitler had 4 million heavily armed and extremely well disciplined troops. ISIS are not much more than a thinly spread thuggish rabble driving about in unprotected pick up trucks.
What a tw8t al Maliki is.
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More importantly the British government couldn't give a tinkers
They don;t want to 'inflame muslim community feelings'.0 -
It certainly isn't good news, I need Labour to hold on to it's lead for longer than this for my most profitable outcome to come about ^_~SimonStClare said:There’s a distinct whiff of 'good news’ will not be tolerated about this thread.
OTOH Reviewing the poll's internals doesn't make me overly worried.0 -
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
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Yeah - well - we learned this morning that one of our own has managed to save a whole race of people - cracking open the champers doesn't fell exactly right. What would the White House think?SimonStClare said:There’s a distinct whiff of 'good news’ will not be tolerated about this thread.
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11%woody662 said:Any idea how much of the Tory figure comes from ex Lib Dems?
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a hotline for people to call if they spot one.
So you are quite happy to see the Swastika in Golders Green?0 -
O/T
Today is world cat day. The Brute has celebrated by running a real humdinger 5am meow session from the garden, eating two breakfasts (both with warmed milk), and now snoozing the day away on the sofa.0 -
I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.0
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This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".0 -
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.0 -
Con will get over 300 seats, Labour won't.0
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It's spooky that the gap between Monday and Friday is not only consistent, it's usually EXACTLY the same - a 2, a 4, a 5, and FIVE 3s.0
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They've published itMikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
http://rds.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=426&RPID=10086723520 -
Thanks TSE. 40% for UKIP. So UKIP average for the night goes up to 33.3%TheScreamingEagles said:
They've published itMikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
http://rds.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=426&RPID=1008672352
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I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%MikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?0 -
volcanopete said:
This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".
The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).0 -
It can't be that bad, can it?
What's left of the RAF prepare to leave for #Iraq pic.twitter.com/9oXNFHmQwN
— Jim (@Jim_Watford) August 8, 20140 -
7 votes for the LD is embarrassing isn't it given that you need 10 people to nominate you?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've published itMikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
http://rds.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=426&RPID=10086723520 -
I think you can add 1% to UKIP's Euro results for the AIFE effect. Unless AIFE are turning out for Westminster seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%MikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
Spoiler parties could well be a problem in Thanet South, and could potentially cost Farage the seat there - I can see AIFE running there... but nationally they won't be.0 -
I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%MikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
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Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.justin124 said:I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
Meanwhile I go unrecognised.
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OGH: Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short
........ and the LibDems fitting into three taxis!0 -
@MikeSmithson
Lord Smithson of Arbitrage?0 -
Fortunately for the Tories general elections are on Thursdays.MaxPB said:volcanopete said:This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".
The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).
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kinda misses the point - you want to diss Populus because you don't like the result.MikeK said:
I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%MikeK said:
I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.volcanopete said:
Source of informaion @BritainelectsEasterross said:Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)
Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)
Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)
The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.0 -
Lord Smithson of Arbitrage?
Baron Smithson has a better ring to it, for me.0 -
I don't think Cooper is senile. In fact I am sure he is not.justin124 said:0 -
MikeK said:
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.ThescreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?MikeK said:I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?0 -
A copious peer of the realm it would appear, whatever the title.taffys said:Lord Smithson of Arbitrage?
Baron Smithson has a better ring to it, for me.
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The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).
Fortunately for the Tories general elections are on Thursdays.
Nowadays many postal votes cast the previous weekend too!0 -
Defect to the Tory Party, you know you want too.MikeSmithson said:
Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.justin124 said:I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
Meanwhile I go unrecognised.0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
The Tory party is already full of defects, does it need more?0 -
Oh dear
I suppose it is nothing to worry about?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london/0 -
If we're polling ahead with two different pollsters, including the Gold standard, I think Labour are the ones with the defects, how come Ed is trailing, the out of touch, aristo posho Buller boy?Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
The Tory party is already full of defects, does it need more?0 -
Yes he did - and subsequently joined the Owenite rump before becoming a Tory just before the 92 election. He has been drifting rightwards all the time. When will he join UKIP?MikeSmithson said:
Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.justin124 said:I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
Meanwhile I go unrecognised.0 -
Nearly as bad as the Diane James' predictions on the Newark by-election show, talking about Helmer was going to poll a record UKIP high and UKIP getting 60 MPsPulpstar said:MikeK said:
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.ThescreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?MikeK said:I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?0 -
No Mike Smithson should become a Kipper: he's be an MP in no time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Defect to the Tory Party, you know you want too.MikeSmithson said:
Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.justin124 said:I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
Meanwhile I go unrecognised.
0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
Ignore all polls till you find one that suits?0 -
I see a Mujahideen flag there, but not the ISIS one.isam said:Oh dear
I suppose it is nothing to worry about?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london/
It is still very concerning, nevertheless.0 -
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I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.Pulpstar said:MikeK said:
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.ThescreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?MikeK said:I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
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I'm not ignoring the polls.Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
Ignore all polls till you find one that suits?
I'm generally content with the trend of the polls, Do you want me to post the average of the YouGov's for the last 24 months?
I've said it before, if every pollster bar ICM had the Tories ahead, and ICM had Lab ahead, I'd still trust ICM over all the other pollsters.
isam can confirm, I've put my money where my mouth is when it comes to ICM.0 -
Next time Mike, next time.MikeSmithson said:
Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.justin124 said:I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
Meanwhile I go unrecognised.0 -
3 I reckon. And that is a prediction, not hope.MikeK said:
I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.Pulpstar said:MikeK said:
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.ThescreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?MikeK said:I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?0 -
"Royal Air Force to Drop Relief Supplies to Iraqi Refugees"
It would seem that Crab Air are getting involved in Iraq after all. UK Forces News Network say that the Crabs will not only be dropping supplies but providing refuelling and surveillance missions to support the Septics. That is a big step and I am surprised that HMG has not formally announced it. From no involvement to supportive involvement is a much bigger step than from supportive involvement to using mud movers.
http://forces.tv/00162669
This is all SeanT's doing.0 -
Todays Populus LAB 318 CON 288 LD 17 Other 26
EICIPM Less than 9 months to go0 -
The soufflé is rising nicely. Going to be plating beautifully by next May.....0
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Going to be a hell of a lot of LibDem ex-MP's wanting a peerage next May.peter_from_putney said:
Next time Mike, next time.MikeSmithson said:
Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.justin124 said:I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
Meanwhile I go unrecognised.
0 -
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%0
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BBC now trying to wriggle out of those damning Gaza casualty figures; but oh they cannot bare it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-286881790 -
FPT, I hear that JackW is only going to be treating us to one more outpouring of his McARSE ahead of the real vote.
What's happened - have the other pollsters had a whip-round and given him a bung?0 -
I reckon it'll be all or nothing.Pulpstar said:
3 I reckon. And that is a prediction, not hope.MikeK said:
I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.Pulpstar said:MikeK said:
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.ThescreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?MikeK said:I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
Either zero or 4-5
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28 more than my prediction.MikeK said:
I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.Pulpstar said:MikeK said:
Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.ThescreamingEagles said:
I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%
I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%
Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?MikeK said:I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.
As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
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What a poll! Obviously much better for the Tories.
But what a messy outcome.0 -
Draw is layable at 3-1 in the test now, seeing as the game is miles ahead of schedule (16 wickets by lunch day 2) the rain spooking the market is an opportunity I've taken0
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OGH would tell you that you can't use polling data so far in the past, as methodologies have changed so much.justin124 said:ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
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But their final poll had it at 10%justin124 said:ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
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One hopes that when it comes to the general election people won't let these small factors influence their decision and the result will be based on the policies of each party...MikeSmithson said:
Fortunately for the Tories general elections are on Thursdays.MaxPB said:volcanopete said:This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".
The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).
Good thing it's on Thursday indeed.0 -
@Slackbladder
Methodologies are a "guestumation", and therefore down to an element of chance,
As all posters change methodologies regularly, you are looking at a Grand National, where the "best horse" doesn't always win.0
