ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
I suspect ICM may come a cropper next year because of the assumptions being made about the LibDem vote.Unlike the Tories and Labour I don't think there is much of a 'core'LibDem' vote which is going return home at the last minute. I share Mike's view that many have gone back to Labour - and will stay there!
I suspect ICM may come a cropper next year because of the assumptions being made about the LibDem vote.Unlike the Tories and Labour I don't think there is much of a 'core'LibDem' vote which is going return home at the last minute. I share Mike's view that many have gone back to Labour - and will stay there!
I heard the same thing about ICM coming a cropper last time,
No pollster will be able to get the Cleggasm right etc.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
A lot of those LibDem defectors to Labour are key targets for the apathy campaign and it will be largely successful as that vote winner Miliband is pushed to the fore.
Cameron will follow Callaghan's example and stir up apathy within that group all over the land.
Looking at BBC weather forecast shows rain for rest of day all day Sunday and most of Monday.
Pulpstar careful laying the draw.
Of course weather forecasts can be wrong
I've bailed from the draw lay, "greened up" right now on £10 profit for the match. My hope is today is a washout and the draw price will be even better to lay overnight.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
I suspect ICM may come a cropper next year because of the assumptions being made about the LibDem vote.Unlike the Tories and Labour I don't think there is much of a 'core'LibDem' vote which is going return home at the last minute. I share Mike's view that many have gone back to Labour - and will stay there!
I heard the same thing about ICM coming a cropper last time,
No pollster will be able to get the Cleggasm right etc.
I simply believe that their core vote assumption re-LibDems is wrong.
Mr. Eagles, in that case we have Election 2: Elect Harder.
And who benefits from that? Advantage Tories (as they have more money for another campaign)? Advantage Greens / UKIP (None of the above)? Squeeze on all but Lab / Tory (Need a result - don't waste your vote)? Can see it all come out in the wash with virtually the same result if it is within 6 months.
I suspect ICM may come a cropper next year because of the assumptions being made about the LibDem vote.Unlike the Tories and Labour I don't think there is much of a 'core'LibDem' vote which is going return home at the last minute. I share Mike's view that many have gone back to Labour - and will stay there!
I heard the same thing about ICM coming a cropper last time,
No pollster will be able to get the Cleggasm right etc.
I simply believe that their core vote assumption re-LibDems is wrong.
Would be fun - the amount of hate that the LDs would generate would presumably set off some kind of Book of Revelations type event.
[Oops - 2nd time - I always give myself 3]
I once made a very left wing Labour activist turn a dangerous shade of purple, when I suggested to him that the Lib Dems might be the only constant in Government in this decade.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
[My policy of free harems for all net contributors to the tax system will ensure a landslide.]
I'm not sure I'm misremembering - but wasn't there a mayor who got elected on a platform of free bananas for school children. But that wasn't the best bit - the best was his slogan-
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
Mr. Eagles, no. If there's an unworkable set of numbers for a government then which party will vote against repealing the act, effectively telling the voters they're frightened of another vote?
Plus, without sufficient support no party would get a Queen's Speech through, which would, I think, mean an election.
It's a pretty narrow range for no government to be workable, though. I'd be surprised if it happened, though not with a hung parliament.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
I was disappointed to note that Cleggie hadn't tapped OGH for an ermine collar today. Arguably he has done more for the country than the several has been Cllrs who have been punted upstairs. I see Barry (or whatever his character name was) from Eastenders has been ennobled at the request of Milibland. Once Baldrick gets his peerage we will know that Blackadder has taken over and the HoL more resembles a Gilbert and Sullivan operetta
[My policy of free harems for all net contributors to the tax system will ensure a landslide.]
I'm not sure I'm misremembering - but wasn't there a mayor who got elected on a platform of free bananas for school children. But that wasn't the best bit - the best was his slogan-
Mr. Mark, given the Book of Revelation was almost certainly written under the influence of hallucinogenic mushrooms I wouldn't worry too much about its contents.
Besides, we all know the Flying Spaghetti Monster, may you be touched by His Noodley Appendage, is the true god.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
Again those are UK figures! The GB figure was 44.5% approx.
Still confirms that ICM were the most accurate, other pollsters had them at 51%
I am not claiming that other pollsters were more accurate.My point is simply that ICM were the only pollster in 1997 to understate Labour - in terms of both lead and % vote share.That other pollsters were wildly wrong in the other direction does not contradict that fact.It does,however, lead me to believe that ICM is likely to be somewhat understating Labour - particularly in view of its assumptions re-LibDem core vote returning home on polling day.
So we all have to wait until the End of Days - and only get ONE lousy stinking Revelation?
Poor show.....
Talking about the book of revelation.
THE next player to be given his Test debut by England will be asked whether he wants to take the number 666 or prefers to skip to 667 to avoid a figure identified with the Antichrist or Devil, writes Simon Wilde.
Jos Buttler, above, became England’s 665th Test cricketer when he made his debut at the Ageas Bowl last Sunday and although the squad for this week’s fourth Test contains no uncapped players, James Whitaker, the national selector, has confirmed that when the time comes the decision will be left with the player. The numbers are awarded alphabetically if more than one player makes his debut in the same match.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
Again those are UK figures! The GB figure was 44.5% approx.
Still confirms that ICM were the most accurate, other pollsters had them at 51%
I am not claiming that other pollsters were more accurate.My point is simply that ICM were the only pollster in 1997 to understate Labour - in terms of both lead and % vote share.That other pollsters were wildly wrong in the other direction does not contradict that fact.It does,however, lead me to believe that ICM is likely to be somewhat understating Labour - particularly in view of its assumptions re-LibDem core vote returning home on polling day.
ICM have had 17 years to get a bit closer....
You are looking a bit of a straw-clutcher, if you don't mind me saying.
I was disappointed to note that Cleggie hadn't tapped OGH for an ermine collar today. Arguably he has done more for the country than the several has been Cllrs who have been punted upstairs. I see Barry (or whatever his character name was) from Eastenders has been ennobled at the request of Milibland. Once Baldrick gets his peerage we will know that Blackadder has taken over and the HoL more resembles a Gilbert and Sullivan operetta
Actually a House of Lords in the style of Gilbert and Sullivan would be much preferable to the one we have now. It would be a lot smaller, it would contain no mountebanks and failed politicians, and it would be able to sing nicely. If we had a Lord Chancellor that could manage the Nightmare Song we would be a much better governed country.
P.S. Referring to your earlier post, there are, I am told, some gentlemen who prefer the Widdecombe figure and attitude. Hard to believe I know but I have it on the very best authority.
I'm beginning to loathe the hypocrisy of the left over this Islamic militant stuff. On one side you have ISIS who are murdering and committing genocide against all non-Muslims in Iraq because of a power vacuum left behind by the US/UK invasion and people are rightly calling for Obama and other world leaders to get off their backsides to bomb them. On the other side you have the ideologically similar (identical in that they want to exterminate all non-Muslims) Hamas being bombed by Israel and Israel are the bad guy for retaliating. Again it was Hamas who broke the ceasefire by firing rockets into Israel and yet the news and media make it seem like both sides immediately resumed fighting after the end of the ceasefire.
So when Muslims kill Christians and other non-Muslims the world needs to act, but when Muslims kill Jews the left want us to stand by and allow it and better still, criticise said Jews for defending themselves. I think we have a word for that.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
Again those are UK figures! The GB figure was 44.5% approx.
Still confirms that ICM were the most accurate, other pollsters had them at 51%
I am not claiming that other pollsters were more accurate.My point is simply that ICM were the only pollster in 1997 to understate Labour - in terms of both lead and % vote share.That other pollsters were wildly wrong in the other direction does not contradict that fact.It does,however, lead me to believe that ICM is likely to be somewhat understating Labour - particularly in view of its assumptions re-LibDem core vote returning home on polling day.
It's almost as if you're ignoring ICM's track record since 1997.
1.5% last century isn't a reason to have doubts about them now.
ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
Again those are UK figures! The GB figure was 44.5% approx.
Still confirms that ICM were the most accurate, other pollsters had them at 51%
I am not claiming that other pollsters were more accurate.My point is simply that ICM were the only pollster in 1997 to understate Labour - in terms of both lead and % vote share.That other pollsters were wildly wrong in the other direction does not contradict that fact.It does,however, lead me to believe that ICM is likely to be somewhat understating Labour - particularly in view of its assumptions re-LibDem core vote returning home on polling day.
ICM have had 17 years to get a bit closer....
You are looking a bit of a straw-clutcher, if you don't mind me saying.
I'm sure he'd be making these points if the last ICM had Lab ahead by 8
So we all have to wait until the End of Days - and only get ONE lousy stinking Revelation?
Poor show.....
Talking about the book of revelation.
THE next player to be given his Test debut by England will be asked whether he wants to take the number 666 or prefers to skip to 667 to avoid a figure identified with the Antichrist or Devil, writes Simon Wilde.
Jos Buttler, above, became England’s 665th Test cricketer when he made his debut at the Ageas Bowl last Sunday and although the squad for this week’s fourth Test contains no uncapped players, James Whitaker, the national selector, has confirmed that when the time comes the decision will be left with the player. The numbers are awarded alphabetically if more than one player makes his debut in the same match.
You can't imagine an England cricketer being given such a choice when the likes of Ray Illingworth or Mike Brearley were skippering England.
Mr. Mark, given the Book of Revelation was almost certainly written under the influence of hallucinogenic mushrooms I wouldn't worry too much about its contents.
Besides, we all know the Flying Spaghetti Monster, may you be touched by His Noodley Appendage, is the true god.
It is true the 3rd Horseman of the Apocalypse was carrying an enormo haddock stick as his chosen weapon of mass destruction.
Mr. Easterross, an earlier, more accurate, version has the Four Haddock-Men of the Apocalypse, a clear reference to giant land-walking genetically engineered superfish.
So we all have to wait until the End of Days - and only get ONE lousy stinking Revelation?
Poor show.....
You don't even have to wait until the end of days. You can read the whole thing now, on line. I have always felt that St John of Patmos was off his head when he wrote it (whether on Mr Dancer's mushrooms or otherwise), but there you are. Why the ancient fathers of the Christian faith (of all sects, I believe) decided to hang on to it, and discard other, possibly more powerful, texts I don't know.
I once worked for a boss who was an expert on the Book of Revelation, but to be honest he was as off his head as the author.
@MaxPB I think the difference may be that a few "hotheads" sending rudimentary rockets into Israel, is not a vote by the majority of those in Gazza.
So what would you have Israel do? Islamic extremism must be fought and defeated everywhere, ISIS, Hamas, Al-Qaida are all different heads of the same monster. We must support Israel in their fight against Hamas just as we must support the Kurds in their fight against ISIS and even now Assad in Syria. Islamic extremism represents the largest threat against the free world, and anyone who opposes it deserves our support. Israel is on the front line, they must have our support in defending themselves against Hamas. It is in our interests to see Hamas defeated.
@MaxPB I think the difference may be that a few "hotheads" sending rudimentary rockets into Israel, is not a vote by the majority of those in Gazza.
oh those scallywags over at Hamas, eh?
Some general observations:
1. Irony has eaten itself with Obama (and the UK?) now wading in on the side of the Alawite Assad against the Sunni IS. 2. The Guardian should take a good long look at itself; I couldn't be happier that they have had this (what I hope to be a) wake-up call. 3. This is all good for the Cons and bad for EdM who is in danger of being seen on the side of the bad guys (MB = Hamas = IS) although this in one interpretation could be seen to put Dave on the wrong side of Barack. 4. Can I be (am I?) the first to ask where the chuffing hell Compouter is these days with his droll Basil jokes?
@MaxPB I think the difference may be that a few "hotheads" sending rudimentary rockets into Israel, is not a vote by the majority of those in Gazza.
So what would you have Israel do? Islamic extremism must be fought and defeated everywhere, ISIS, Hamas, Al-Qaida are all different heads of the same monster. We must support Israel in their fight against Hamas just as we must support the Kurds in their fight against ISIS and even now Assad in Syria. Islamic extremism represents the largest threat against the free world, and anyone who opposes it deserves our support. Israel is on the front line, they must have our support in defending themselves against Hamas. It is in our interests to see Hamas defeated.
Personally I would have them stop killing women and children and stick to dealing with Hamas.
@MaxPB Hamas has much the same opinion, the"invaders" must be fought and defeated, and the longer they fight, the more extreme both sides become.
So who is to blame for the civilian deaths, Hamas who put their military hardware in civilian areas and threaten civilians who try to leave, or Israel for bombing said military hardware. Hamas are using civilians as a human shield for actions and that is the atrocity. The western media has fallen for it hook, line and sinker. The deaths of civilians is regrettable, but Hamas is using them as canon fodder and propaganda by actively putting them in harm's way.
Israel is our strategic and ideological ally in the Middle East, cutting support for them would be a disaster. Leaving them to fend off the Islamist threat alone would act against our interests.
I don’t think MaxPB is being entirely fair to the left, although I don’t suppose he’s in anyway way likely to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Israel/Palestine situation has been going on for a long time, and, IIRC, for some time the left was generally sympathetic to the Israelis. However, over the years there has come to be an perception that, as far as the Israelis are concerned anything the Palestinians do is wrong, and further that the US lets them get away with it beause of the importnace of the Jewish lobby in US politics. Now that doesn’t mean to say that this leftist anyway thinks that it s a simple matter of Israelis bad, Palestians good. In particular, as Max points out the recent truce ended because of Hamas’ actions. Israel might just have held off for a while if Hamas hadn’t restarted the rockets. One would have thought that a responsible government in Gaza would have allowed it’s own citizens a chance to recuperate. And there are Palestinian Christians in Gaza, althoiugh not very many. It’s probably a bit easier for them to emigate
I really don’t see any correlation between Western Left and Right and ISIS/Iraq/Kurdistan. ISIS are fundamentalist fanatics pure and simple and somehow they’ve got to be stopped in their tracks. The fact that the situation was originally brought about by the attack on Iraq by the US/UK is sad but in the bigger scheme of things irrelevant; had the war not taken place and Saddam been assassinated 5 or so years ago I suspect we’d see a similar situation to that which exists now.
@MaxPB I think the difference may be that a few "hotheads" sending rudimentary rockets into Israel, is not a vote by the majority of those in Gazza.
oh those scallywags over at Hamas, eh?
Some general observations:
1. Irony has eaten itself with Obama (and the UK?) now wading in on the side of the Alawite Assad against the Sunni IS. 2. The Guardian should take a good long look at itself; I couldn't be happier that they have had this (what I hope to be a) wake-up call. 3. This is all good for the Cons and bad for EdM who is in danger of being seen on the side of the bad guys (MB = Hamas = IS) although this in one interpretation could be seen to put Dave on the wrong side of Barack. 4. Can I be (am I?) the first to ask where the chuffing hell Compouter is these days with his droll Basil jokes?
Mr. Topping,
Compouter was here the other day, but quite late in the evening. Whether he was equipped with his droll Basil jokes, I couldn't say. I always scroll past his contributions.
Whether the international crises are good or bad for our political leaders I would hesitate to guess. Personally, I think Cameron just makes himself look a jerk every time he comments, "I am sincerely concerned that x, y, or z has happened and I think that [insert platitude of choice here]", Miliband alternates between brazen opportunist and complete pillock, and Clegg, well sorry who?
Gaza is a terrorist's paradise. A small densely populated enclave, stacked full of pliant innocents to hide behind, right next to the enemy you want to destroy indiscriminately.
But their final poll had it at 10% That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24% Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
Again those are UK figures! The GB figure was 44.5% approx.
Still confirms that ICM were the most accurate, other pollsters had them at 51% I am not claiming that other pollsters were more accurate.My point is simply that ICM were the only pollster in 1997 to understate Labour - in terms of both lead and % vote share.That other pollsters were wildly wrong in the other direction does not contradict that fact.It does,however, lead me to believe that ICM is likely to be somewhat understating Labour - particularly in view of its assumptions re-LibDem core vote returning home on polling day.
ICM have had 17 years to get a bit closer....
You are looking a bit of a straw-clutcher, if you don't mind me saying.
I'm sure he'd be making these points if the last ICM had Lab ahead by 8''
Look- I will not be voting Labour in 2015 - and have not done so since 1992!.All pollsters have reviewed their methods since the 90s and many are quite new on the scene. ICM was very good on the AV referendum - less so on the 2012 London Mayoral election and if I remember correctly put the Tories ahead of Labour for the Euros.In presenting my genuine view as to how things stand I may have drawn attention to some facts which are unwelcome or had been largely overlooked. I stand by my main point which is that the collapse in the LibDem vote and what is likely to happen to that vote in 2015 has led to ICM making assumptions about those voters which will turn out to be wrong. We can only wait and see!
I don’t think MaxPB is being entirely fair to the left, although I don’t suppose he’s in anyway way likely to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Israel/Palestine situation has been going on for a long time, and, IIRC, for some time the left was generally sympathetic to the Israelis. However, over the years there has come to be an perception that, as far as the Israelis are concerned anything the Palestinians do is wrong, and further that the US lets them get away with it beause of the importnace of the Jewish lobby in US politics. Now that doesn’t mean to say that this leftist anyway thinks that it s a simple matter of Israelis bad, Palestians good. In particular, as Max points out the recent truce ended because of Hamas’ actions. Israel might just have held off for a while if Hamas hadn’t restarted the rockets. One would have thought that a responsible government in Gaza would have allowed it’s own citizens a chance to recuperate. And there are Palestinian Christians in Gaza, althoiugh not very many. It’s probably a bit easier for them to emigate
I really don’t see any correlation between Western Left and Right and ISIS/Iraq/Kurdistan. The latter are fundamentalist fanatics pure and simple and somehow they’ve got to be stopped in their tracks. The fact that the situation was originally brought about by the attack on Iraq by the US/UK is sad but in the bigger scheme of things irrelevant; had the war not taken place and Saddam been assassinated 5 or so years ago I suspect we’d see a similar situation to that which exists now.
That's the hypocrisy though, at the moment to the left Hamas = good but ISIS = bad, the only difference between them is that Hamas are fighting Jews in Israel and ISIS are fighting different non-Muslims in Iraq. They are ideologically aligned otherwise.
@MaxPB Where do you get the idea that the Left thinks Hamas is "good", and Israel is "bad"? Those on the proper "Left" consider both sides are led by idiots. and in some cases, the genuinely insane.
I don’t think MaxPB is being entirely fair to the left, although I don’t suppose he’s in anyway way likely to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Israel/Palestine situation has been going on for a long time, and, IIRC, for some time the left was generally sympathetic to the Israelis. However, over the years there has come to be an perception that, as far as the Israelis are concerned anything the Palestinians do is wrong, and further that the US lets them get away with it beause of the importnace of the Jewish lobby in US politics. Now that doesn’t mean to say that this leftist anyway thinks that it s a simple matter of Israelis bad, Palestians good. In particular, as Max points out the recent truce ended because of Hamas’ actions. Israel might just have held off for a while if Hamas hadn’t restarted the rockets. One would have thought that a responsible government in Gaza would have allowed it’s own citizens a chance to recuperate. And there are Palestinian Christians in Gaza, althoiugh not very many. It’s probably a bit easier for them to emigate
I really don’t see any correlation between Western Left and Right and ISIS/Iraq/Kurdistan. The latter are fundamentalist fanatics pure and simple and somehow they’ve got to be stopped in their tracks. The fact that the situation was originally brought about by the attack on Iraq by the US/UK is sad but in the bigger scheme of things irrelevant; had the war not taken place and Saddam been assassinated 5 or so years ago I suspect we’d see a similar situation to that which exists now.
That's the hypocrisy though, at the moment to the left Hamas = good but ISIS = bad, the only difference between them is that Hamas are fighting Jews in Israel and ISIS are fighting different non-Muslims in Iraq. They are ideologically aligned otherwise.
The other difference, which may seem daft but potentially integrates into the British mentality is thinking about it in terms of Underdog vs Bully. It seems more natural to support the underdog against the bully, but that puts Hamas and ISIS on different sides.
@MaxPB Where do you get the idea that the Left thinks Hamas is "good", and Israel is "bad"? Those on the proper "Left" consider both sides are led by idiots. and in some cases, the genuinely insane.
Quite agree. The appalling thing is that both Hamas and the Israeli government were elected!
@MaxPB Where do you get the idea that the Left thinks Hamas is "good", and Israel is "bad"? Those on the proper "Left" consider both sides are led by idiots. and in some cases, the genuinely insane.
When you get idiots like Miliband hectoring that Israel needs to negotiate with Hamas (rather than the other way around) it is patently clear where the left is on this argument. The left believes Israel to be culpable for the ills of this conflict. How does one negotiate with a group of terrorists that are hellbent on one's own annihilation.
King Cole, hmm. Wasn't that a while ago, and didn't Hamas subsequently threw its rival party's members off of rooftops? Not sure that necessarily speaks of accountability and democracy.
@MaxPB Where do you get the idea that the Left thinks Hamas is "good", and Israel is "bad"? Those on the proper "Left" consider both sides are led by idiots. and in some cases, the genuinely insane.
When you get idiots like Miliband hectoring that Israel needs to negotiate with Hamas (rather than the other way around) it is patently clear where the left is on this argument. The left believes Israel to be culpable for the ills of this conflict. How does one negotiate with a group of terrorists that are hellbent on one's own annihilation.
The Labour party was (and is ) full of pro IRA types - why the surprise ?
@MaxPB "So a non-answer" No, it is a very firm answer. Both sides are to blame equally, and both are acting irrationally.
So your answer to the earlier question of what Israel should do is nothing then? Please explain why Israel are acting irrationally? How would you retaliate against a terrorist organisation using civilians as human shields?
Oh and OKC, when, pray tell, was the last election in Gaza?
@MaxPB Just negotiate, put down the sharp sticks and all the posturing, and talk without fear. The alternative is to continue with more of the same.
So Israel should put down arms and trust that a terrorist organisation in who's founding charter it states that all non-Muslims should be exterminated will follow? What planet do you live on? Hamas don't want to negotiate they want to exterminate all non-Muslims, they are ideologically similar to ISIS who Obama has just ordered air strikes on.
@MaxPB "So a non-answer" No, it is a very firm answer. Both sides are to blame equally, and both are acting irrationally.
So your answer to the earlier question of what Israel should do is nothing then? Please explain why Israel are acting irrationally? How would you retaliate against a terrorist organisation using civilians as human shields?
Oh and OKC, when, pray tell, was the last election in Gaza?
@MaxPB "So a non-answer" No, it is a very firm answer. Both sides are to blame equally, and both are acting irrationally.
So your answer to the earlier question of what Israel should do is nothing then? Please explain why Israel are acting irrationally? How would you retaliate against a terrorist organisation using civilians as human shields?
Oh and OKC, when, pray tell, was the last election in Gaza?
2006, as far as I can see. The situation when the next election was due appears to be confused as a relt of arguments between Fatah and Hamas, and Israeli actions.
Mr Dancer, I hold no brief for Hamas. I was simply pointing out that there are no innocent players in the area.
The people of Gazza watch new settlements being built on land they used to own, while living in a ghetto and under occupation. Israeli leaders don't want peace any more than the nutters in Hamas, everyone else would just like some sanity and stability.
The people of Gazza watch new settlements being built on land they used to own, while living in a ghetto and under occupation. Israeli leaders don't want peace any more than the nutters in Hamas, everyone else would just like some sanity and stability.
The day Israel stops building settlements in the West Bank is the day they genuinely want peace. Unfortunately I don't see the Israelis ever voluntarily giving up their desire for lebensraum.
Delighted to learn the Yanks have bombed an ISIS crowd back to the stone age where they belong. Special forces should be sent in to wipe ISIS out.
So far they've said they're only going to bomb Isis forces when they threaten Erbil or Baghdad (where the US has regional command posts) and air dropping supplies elsewhere like the bods on the mountains.
They don't want to damage Isis because Isis are fighting Assad and Maliki.
Delighted to learn the Yanks have bombed an ISIS crowd back to the stone age where they belong. Special forces should be sent in to wipe ISIS out.
So far they've said they're only going to bomb Isis forces when they threaten Erbil or Baghdad (where the US has regional command posts) and air dropping supplies elsewhere like the bods on the mountains.
They don't want to damage Isis because Isis are fighting Assad and Maliki.
Delighted to learn the Yanks have bombed an ISIS crowd back to the stone age where they belong. Special forces should be sent in to wipe ISIS out.
So far they've said they're only going to bomb Isis forces when they threaten Erbil or Baghdad (where the US has regional command posts) and air dropping supplies elsewhere like the bods on the mountains.
They don't want to damage Isis because Isis are fighting Assad and Maliki.
Oh what a tangled web we weave ...........
I expect it to end with different teams of CIA bods in Langley shooting at each other from behind their desks.
Kiev threatening to block gas transhipments through Ukraine next week. Cutting their own throats and bringing Europe down with them. Time for leadership in Europe, enough is enough, put the neo cons in Washington and their chums in Kiev back in their place. The EU economy is in enough trouble already and winter is on its way.
Ukraine itself is in collapse now, no money, tax rises, no gas, conscription introduced with the East still in rebel hands.
The people of Gazza watch new settlements being built on land they used to own, while living in a ghetto and under occupation. Israeli leaders don't want peace any more than the nutters in Hamas, everyone else would just like some sanity and stability.
That's where Israel's allies must apply pressure, not withdraw arms sales or trade support as has been suggested by many on the left.
Just remember this, Arabs/Muslims who live in Israel have the right to vote, the right to own land and the right to own/run a business without interference from the state. The same cannot be said for non-Muslims in Gaza (or almost any majority Islamic country for that matter).
Comments
Its raining cats and dogs
Looking at BBC weather forecast shows rain for rest of day all day Sunday and most of Monday.
Pulpstar careful laying the draw.
Of course weather forecasts can be wrong
No pollster will be able to get the Cleggasm right etc.
Hung parliament, with no obvious workable coalition.
What happens then?
Grand coalition?
Cameron will follow Callaghan's example and stir up apathy within that group all over the land.
Mr. Eagles, in that case we have Election 2: Elect Harder.
On election day, Labour received 43.2%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997#Results
Now if you want to quibble over 0.2%.......
Would be fun - the amount of hate that the LDs would generate would presumably set off some kind of Book of Revelations type event.
[Oops - 2nd time - I always give myself 3]
My policy of free harems for all net contributors to the tax system will ensure a landslide.
"The country will be "screaming" out for a firm yet fair dictator..... "
Farage stages a beer garden putsch?
Whose special forces?
I'm not sure I'm misremembering - but wasn't there a mayor who got elected on a platform of free bananas for school children. But that wasn't the best bit - the best was his slogan-
Vote Monkey - Get Monkey
Plus, without sufficient support no party would get a Queen's Speech through, which would, I think, mean an election.
It's a pretty narrow range for no government to be workable, though. I'd be surprised if it happened, though not with a hung parliament.
Poor show.....
Besides, we all know the Flying Spaghetti Monster, may you be touched by His Noodley Appendage, is the true god.
THE next player to be given his Test debut by England will be asked whether he wants to take the number 666 or prefers to skip to 667 to avoid a figure identified with the Antichrist or Devil, writes Simon Wilde.
Jos Buttler, above, became England’s 665th Test cricketer when he made his debut at the Ageas Bowl last Sunday and although the squad for this week’s fourth Test contains no uncapped players, James Whitaker, the national selector, has confirmed that when the time comes the decision will be left with the player. The numbers are awarded alphabetically if more than one player makes his debut in the same match.
You are looking a bit of a straw-clutcher, if you don't mind me saying.
P.S. Referring to your earlier post, there are, I am told, some gentlemen who prefer the Widdecombe figure and attitude. Hard to believe I know but I have it on the very best authority.
So when Muslims kill Christians and other non-Muslims the world needs to act, but when Muslims kill Jews the left want us to stand by and allow it and better still, criticise said Jews for defending themselves. I think we have a word for that.
1.5% last century isn't a reason to have doubts about them now.
I think the difference may be that a few "hotheads" sending rudimentary rockets into Israel, is not a vote by the majority of those in Gazza.
I once worked for a boss who was an expert on the Book of Revelation, but to be honest he was as off his head as the author.
Fellow Owl = Top man
Some general observations:
1. Irony has eaten itself with Obama (and the UK?) now wading in on the side of the Alawite Assad against the Sunni IS.
2. The Guardian should take a good long look at itself; I couldn't be happier that they have had this (what I hope to be a) wake-up call.
3. This is all good for the Cons and bad for EdM who is in danger of being seen on the side of the bad guys (MB = Hamas = IS) although this in one interpretation could be seen to put Dave on the wrong side of Barack.
4. Can I be (am I?) the first to ask where the chuffing hell Compouter is these days with his droll Basil jokes?
Crikey, Hamas is now a few hotheads. Delusional post of the week.
Hamas has much the same opinion, the"invaders" must be fought and defeated, and the longer they fight, the more extreme both sides become.
And so it begins..
Most of all the Gazans. They have been used as cannon fodder by Hamas.
Israel is our strategic and ideological ally in the Middle East, cutting support for them would be a disaster. Leaving them to fend off the Islamist threat alone would act against our interests.
Now that doesn’t mean to say that this leftist anyway thinks that it s a simple matter of Israelis bad, Palestians good. In particular, as Max points out the recent truce ended because of Hamas’ actions. Israel might just have held off for a while if Hamas hadn’t restarted the rockets. One would have thought that a responsible government in Gaza would have allowed it’s own citizens a chance to recuperate. And there are Palestinian Christians in Gaza, althoiugh not very many. It’s probably a bit easier for them to emigate
I really don’t see any correlation between Western Left and Right and ISIS/Iraq/Kurdistan. ISIS are fundamentalist fanatics pure and simple and somehow they’ve got to be stopped in their tracks. The fact that the situation was originally brought about by the attack on Iraq by the US/UK is sad but in the bigger scheme of things irrelevant; had the war not taken place and Saddam been assassinated 5 or so years ago I suspect we’d see a similar situation to that which exists now.
Compouter was here the other day, but quite late in the evening. Whether he was equipped with his droll Basil jokes, I couldn't say. I always scroll past his contributions.
Whether the international crises are good or bad for our political leaders I would hesitate to guess. Personally, I think Cameron just makes himself look a jerk every time he comments, "I am sincerely concerned that x, y, or z has happened and I think that [insert platitude of choice here]", Miliband alternates between brazen opportunist and complete pillock, and Clegg, well sorry who?
Semi evolved apes are to blame, unfortunately few political systems encourage the more rational apes.
Your boys are gonna take one hell of a beating. ED IS CRAP.
But their final poll had it at 10%
That is true - but again the only pollster to understate the lead.
They were closer to the actual lead than a lot of the other pollsters, the only other pollster still going from that era, had the Lab lead at 18% and a week before the election had the Lab lead at 24%
Indeed so - but it does not alter the fact that ICM were understating Labour- and probably still are.
Final ICM poll of 1997, forecast Labour to get 43%.
On election day, Labour received 43.2%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997#Results
Now if you want to quibble over 0.2%.......
Again those are UK figures! The GB figure was 44.5% approx.
Still confirms that ICM were the most accurate, other pollsters had them at 51%
I am not claiming that other pollsters were more accurate.My point is simply that ICM were the only pollster in 1997 to understate Labour - in terms of both lead and % vote share.That other pollsters were wildly wrong in the other direction does not contradict that fact.It does,however, lead me to believe that ICM is likely to be somewhat understating Labour - particularly in view of its assumptions re-LibDem core vote returning home on polling day.
ICM have had 17 years to get a bit closer....
You are looking a bit of a straw-clutcher, if you don't mind me saying.
I'm sure he'd be making these points if the last ICM had Lab ahead by 8''
Look- I will not be voting Labour in 2015 - and have not done so since 1992!.All pollsters have reviewed their methods since the 90s and many are quite new on the scene. ICM was very good on the AV referendum - less so on the 2012 London Mayoral election and if I remember correctly put the Tories ahead of Labour for the Euros.In presenting my genuine view as to how things stand I may have drawn attention to some facts which are unwelcome or had been largely overlooked. I stand by my main point which is that the collapse in the LibDem vote and what is likely to happen to that vote in 2015 has led to ICM making assumptions about those voters which will turn out to be wrong. We can only wait and see!
Where do you get the idea that the Left thinks Hamas is "good", and Israel is "bad"?
Those on the proper "Left" consider both sides are led by idiots. and in some cases, the genuinely insane.
"So a non-answer"
No, it is a very firm answer.
Both sides are to blame equally, and both are acting irrationally.
If Hamas could do in Israel what IS is doing in Iraq, they would. In a heart beat.
The people living next door to Israel don;t want their independence, like in Ireland. They don;t want to be part of another country.
They want to take Israeli land, cut Israeli heads off, rape Israeli wives and sell Israeli children as slaves. All of them, until they are all gone.
Talk to Hamas? Who wants to talk to people like that?
Oh and OKC, when, pray tell, was the last election in Gaza?
Just negotiate, put down the sharp sticks and all the posturing, and talk without fear.
The alternative is to continue with more of the same.
Mr Dancer, I hold no brief for Hamas. I was simply pointing out that there are no innocent players in the area.
Nige is standing in Thanet South - Kippers just don't want it out yet..
Polls are always for GB only, not including Northern Ireland.
43.2% was the figure for the whole of the UK. Labour polled 44.4% in GB in 1997.
They don't want to damage Isis because Isis are fighting Assad and Maliki.
Ukraine itself is in collapse now, no money, tax rises, no gas, conscription introduced with the East still in rebel hands.
Trade deficit widens.
Osbornomics fails again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11020813/UK-trade-deficit-widens-in-June.html
Just remember this, Arabs/Muslims who live in Israel have the right to vote, the right to own land and the right to own/run a business without interference from the state. The same cannot be said for non-Muslims in Gaza (or almost any majority Islamic country for that matter).