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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We have cross-over with Populus online. CON 36% LAB 35%

SystemSystem Posts: 11,687
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We have cross-over with Populus online. CON 36% LAB 35%

CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays

Read the full story here


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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Winning here!!!!!!!
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Oh dear all those tweets start to sound bitter and tweetsted!
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    On the day Andrew Cooper gets a peerage!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    But Mike this is the killer finding

    Since the election.

    Con no change, UKIP plus 8.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    I think we all know the real killer finding - JackW - Ed M will never.....
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    and right on cue Dr Steve Fisher has the Tories moving back above 300 in his forecast today.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Much as though I like this poll, it being the silly season, it is probably unreliable. The tories would have a 5 point lead if all the nice Tory people weren't away on holiday.

    Did the Tories hold all 3 council seats last night? No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get 2 threads ago to scoll down past the first few comments. I know the LibDems were UKippered in their seat and the Greens held their seat.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    felix said:

    I think we all know the real killer finding - JackW - Ed M will never.....

    Be Prime Minister

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Jon Williams ‏@WilliamsJon · 9 mins
    .@StateDept confirms #ISIS taken Mosul dam. Threatens entire Tigris plain: could put Mosul under 100 feet of water, Baghdad 16 feet. #Iraq

    Jezz H.....
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Populus is useful in that it gives actual figures as well as rounded %ages.

    So using Table 3, I have tried to look at what proportion of new voters compared with their 2010 votes (retained, gained and lost) each party is getting.

    So CONS are getting 12% of their votes from 'new' voters.
    LAB are getting 18%
    LDs are getting 11%
    UKIP are getting >30%
    Green are getting >40%
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Lefties appear on hols on pb today... i'm back tho... hoorar.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Baxter converging on Jack's ARSE.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Easterross

    What is your present assessment of the scale of the NO victory next month ?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've added a chart showing the Monday-Friday effect with Populus
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    Baxter converging on Jack's ARSE.

    Oh .... the indignity of it ....

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Easterross said:

    Much as though I like this poll, it being the silly season, it is probably unreliable. The tories would have a 5 point lead if all the nice Tory people weren't away on holiday.

    Did the Tories hold all 3 council seats last night? No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get 2 threads ago to scoll down past the first few comments. I know the LibDems were UKippered in their seat and the Greens held their seat.

    That assumption about holiday polls doesn't hold any more in the era of tablets and smartphones. What better way of spending the time on a family holiday than filling in an online voting survey!

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    edited August 2014
    If Peter Kellner is right and we apply his adjustment (ie Lab get 25 seats less than UNS) then Con would be ahead on seats even with only a 1% vote lead.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    JackW said:

    @Easterross

    What is your present assessment of the scale of the NO victory next month ?

    For the 1st time I am starting to believe NO might actually win and then up pops someone else I know who stuns me by saying s/he is voting YES
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Crossover

    Ed's calling out of the PM over Gaza was clearly a masterstroke.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeSmithson said:

    Easterross said:

    Much as though I like this poll, it being the silly season, it is probably unreliable. The tories would have a 5 point lead if all the nice Tory people weren't away on holiday.

    Did the Tories hold all 3 council seats last night? No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't get 2 threads ago to scoll down past the first few comments. I know the LibDems were UKippered in their seat and the Greens held their seat.

    That assumption about holiday polls doesn't hold any more in the era of tablets and smartphones. What better way of spending the time on a family holiday than filling in an online voting survey!

    You've shouldn't have had two dozen oysters for lunch Mike ..... especially in August.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited August 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    I've added a chart showing the Monday-Friday effect with Populus

    Was interesting that Monday's poll was as good as a normal Friday poll.

    Suspect Lab will be back in the lead again next Monday but will it be the normal 5-7% Lab lead or a 1-3% lead?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    Fortunately Alex has some legal advice on this, oh wait.

    The economist also rubbished Alex Salmond's threat to walk away from Scotland's share of UK national debt without a currency union, saying such a move would have "repercussions" in Europe.

    Other European countries with secessionist movements – such as Spain – may not want to give a debt-free Scotland EU membership for fear of creating a precedent, it was suggested.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11019890/Scottish-independence-Keeping-pound-without-currency-union-would-see-banks-relocate.html
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is this a Warsi departing bounce ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2014
    Slackbladder said:

    Jon Williams ‏@WilliamsJon · 9 mins
    .@StateDept confirms #ISIS taken Mosul dam. Threatens entire Tigris plain: could put Mosul under 100 feet of water, Baghdad 16 feet. #Iraq

    Jezz H.....

    ISIS has already used Iraq’s water supply as a weapon. Earlier this year it seized control of the Falluja Dam, in Anbar Province, and flooded a vast area that sent thousands of refugees fleeing, submerged hundreds of homes and several schools and interrupted the water supply to southern Iraq.

    Source:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/08/world/middleeast/isis-forces-in-iraq.html?_r=0

    Strategically it would make sense for ISIS to blow up the dam, Baghdad will be a very tough nut for them to crack, a flooded Baghdad would be easier pickings with the city in chaos/disarray.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    More Populus bullsh*t
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ISIS has already used Iraq’s water supply as a weapon

    What on earth is the Iraqi government doing???? Hitler had 4 million heavily armed and extremely well disciplined troops. ISIS are not much more than a thinly spread thuggish rabble driving about in unprotected pick up trucks.

    What a tw8t al Maliki is.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Easterross said:

    JackW said:

    @Easterross

    What is your present assessment of the scale of the NO victory next month ?

    For the 1st time I am starting to believe NO might actually win and then up pops someone else I know who stuns me by saying s/he is voting YES
    You shouldn't worry about that.

    Shortly before the 1983 GE a right wing (G Khan Esq type) peer of my acquaint advised me of his absolute certainty that Michael Foot was about to form a landslide government because his wife said she was voting Labour.

    Cue uproarious laughter, stern looks, a substantial wager .... and several weeks later a handsome addition to the Mrs JackW Shoe Fund.

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    But Mike this is the killer finding

    Since the election.

    Con no change, UKIP plus 8.

    Not quite! Tories polled 37% in 2010 - not 36%.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    There’s a distinct whiff of 'good news’ will not be tolerated about this thread.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    But Mike this is the killer finding

    Since the election.

    Con no change, UKIP plus 8.

    Not quite! Tories polled 37% in 2010 - not 36%.
    36.1%

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london

    More importantly the British government couldn't give a tinkers: nor can the the EU much to their eternal disgrace.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    That's the UK figure - but pollsters always give us the GB figure. Look at Mike's table!
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    woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Any idea how much of the Tory figure comes from ex Lib Dems?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    taffys said:

    ISIS has already used Iraq’s water supply as a weapon

    What on earth is the Iraqi government doing???? Hitler had 4 million heavily armed and extremely well disciplined troops. ISIS are not much more than a thinly spread thuggish rabble driving about in unprotected pick up trucks.

    What a tw8t al Maliki is.

    Wonder what Saddam would have done about ISIS?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    More importantly the British government couldn't give a tinkers

    They don;t want to 'inflame muslim community feelings'.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2014
    SimonStClare said:

    There’s a distinct whiff of 'good news’ will not be tolerated about this thread.

    It certainly isn't good news, I need Labour to hold on to it's lead for longer than this for my most profitable outcome to come about ^_~

    OTOH Reviewing the poll's internals doesn't make me overly worried.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    SimonStClare said:

    There’s a distinct whiff of 'good news’ will not be tolerated about this thread.

    Yeah - well - we learned this morning that one of our own has managed to save a whole race of people - cracking open the champers doesn't fell exactly right. What would the White House think?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    woody662 said:

    Any idea how much of the Tory figure comes from ex Lib Dems?

    11%
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:


    More importantly the British government couldn't give a tinkers: nor can the the EU much to their eternal disgrace.

    I demand a police flag squad - patrolling the streets with a list of verboten flags and a hotline for people to call if they spot one.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    a hotline for people to call if they spot one.

    So you are quite happy to see the Swastika in Golders Green?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    O/T

    Today is world cat day. The Brute has celebrated by running a real humdinger 5am meow session from the garden, eating two breakfasts (both with warmed milk), and now snoozing the day away on the sofa.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    a hotline for people to call if they spot one.

    So you are quite happy to see the Swastika in Golders Green?

    I wouldn't be demanding Cameron call a meeting of Cobra.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
    The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Con will get over 300 seats, Labour won't.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,343
    It's spooky that the gap between Monday and Friday is not only consistent, it's usually EXACTLY the same - a 2, a 4, a 5, and FIVE 3s.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    They've published it

    http://rds.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=426&RPID=1008672352
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    They've published it

    http://rds.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=426&RPID=1008672352
    Thanks TSE. 40% for UKIP. So UKIP average for the night goes up to 33.3%


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    volcanopete said:

    This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
    The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".


    The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It can't be that bad, can it?

    What's left of the RAF prepare to leave for #Iraq pic.twitter.com/9oXNFHmQwN

    — Jim (@Jim_Watford) August 8, 2014
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    WitanWitan Posts: 26
    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    With age and experience comes wisdom.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    They've published it

    http://rds.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=426&RPID=1008672352
    7 votes for the LD is embarrassing isn't it given that you need 10 people to nominate you?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Witan said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    With age and experience comes wisdom.
    And perhaps self-interest and senility.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
    I think you can add 1% to UKIP's Euro results for the AIFE effect. Unless AIFE are turning out for Westminster seats.

    Spoiler parties could well be a problem in Thanet South, and could potentially cost Farage the seat there - I can see AIFE running there... but nationally they won't be.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.

    Meanwhile I go unrecognised.

  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    justin124 said:

    Witan said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    With age and experience comes wisdom.
    And perhaps self-interest and senility.
    I don't know about senility but you need to pee a lot more (I am told)

  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    OGH: Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short

    ........ and the LibDems fitting into three taxis!
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeSmithson
    Lord Smithson of Arbitrage?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MaxPB said:

    volcanopete said:

    This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
    The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".


    The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).
    Fortunately for the Tories general elections are on Thursdays.

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    volcanopete said:

    Easterross said:

    Time for luncheon. Would one of you dear chaps please confirm what happened last night with the 3 Tory defences?

    Source of informaion @Britainelects

    Castle (Worthing) UKIP gain from LibDem.
    UKIP - 36.9% (+21.9)
    CON - 31.5% (+3.4)
    LDEM - 15.7% (-23.2)
    LAB - 12.8% (-5.2)
    GRN - 3.2% (+3.2)

    Warboys and Bury(Huntingdonshire) Con hold.
    CON - 46.5% (+0.2)
    UKIP - 42.2% (+16.1)
    LDEM - 5.9% (-6.9)
    LAB - 5.4% (-9.3)

    Valley (Stroud) result:Green hold.
    GRN - 42.8% (-4.3)
    LAB - 33.8% (+2.3)
    UKIP - 11.2% (+11.2)
    CON - 9.9% (-11.6)
    TUSC - 2.4% (+2.4)

    The Epping Forest seat just says Con hold.
    I don't know why Epping will not publish the full results? Are they frightened that the UKIP total is unusually large.
    As it is on the 3 results published above UKIP got an average of 31.5%.

    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.
    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?
    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.
    kinda misses the point - you want to diss Populus because you don't like the result.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Lord Smithson of Arbitrage?

    Baron Smithson has a better ring to it, for me.
  • Options
    WitanWitan Posts: 26
    justin124 said:

    Witan said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    With age and experience comes wisdom.
    And perhaps self-interest and senility.
    I don't think Cooper is senile. In fact I am sure he is not.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2014
    MikeK said:


    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.

    ThescreamingEagles said:


    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?

    MikeK said:

    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.

    How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?

    How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,124
    taffys said:

    Lord Smithson of Arbitrage?

    Baron Smithson has a better ring to it, for me.

    A copious peer of the realm it would appear, whatever the title.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527



    The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).

    Fortunately for the Tories general elections are on Thursdays.



    Nowadays many postal votes cast the previous weekend too!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    MikeSmithson said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.

    Meanwhile I go unrecognised.

    Defect to the Tory Party, you know you want too.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    The Tory party is already full of defects, does it need more?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    edited August 2014
    Oh dear

    I suppose it is nothing to worry about?

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles
    The Tory party is already full of defects, does it need more?

    If we're polling ahead with two different pollsters, including the Gold standard, I think Labour are the ones with the defects, how come Ed is trailing, the out of touch, aristo posho Buller boy?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MikeSmithson said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.

    Meanwhile I go unrecognised.

    Yes he did - and subsequently joined the Owenite rump before becoming a Tory just before the 92 election. He has been drifting rightwards all the time. When will he join UKIP?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.

    ThescreamingEagles said:


    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?

    MikeK said:

    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.

    How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?

    How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
    Nearly as bad as the Diane James' predictions on the Newark by-election show, talking about Helmer was going to poll a record UKIP high and UKIP getting 60 MPs
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.

    Meanwhile I go unrecognised.

    Defect to the Tory Party, you know you want too.
    No Mike Smithson should become a Kipper: he's be an MP in no time. ;)
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Ignore all polls till you find one that suits?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2014
    isam said:

    Oh dear

    I suppose it is nothing to worry about?

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/the-black-flag-of-isis-is-flying-in-london/

    I see a Mujahideen flag there, but not the ISIS one.

    It is still very concerning, nevertheless.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    US launches Iraq militant air strike

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28709530
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.

    ThescreamingEagles said:


    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?

    MikeK said:

    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.

    How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?

    How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
    I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles
    Ignore all polls till you find one that suits?

    I'm not ignoring the polls.

    I'm generally content with the trend of the polls, Do you want me to post the average of the YouGov's for the last 24 months?

    I've said it before, if every pollster bar ICM had the Tories ahead, and ICM had Lab ahead, I'd still trust ICM over all the other pollsters.

    isam can confirm, I've put my money where my mouth is when it comes to ICM.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    MikeSmithson said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.

    Meanwhile I go unrecognised.

    Next time Mike, next time.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.

    ThescreamingEagles said:


    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?

    MikeK said:

    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.

    How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?

    How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
    I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.
    3 I reckon. And that is a prediction, not hope.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited August 2014
    "Royal Air Force to Drop Relief Supplies to Iraqi Refugees"

    It would seem that Crab Air are getting involved in Iraq after all. UK Forces News Network say that the Crabs will not only be dropping supplies but providing refuelling and surveillance missions to support the Septics. That is a big step and I am surprised that HMG has not formally announced it. From no involvement to supportive involvement is a much bigger step than from supportive involvement to using mud movers.

    http://forces.tv/00162669

    This is all SeanT's doing.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Todays Populus LAB 318 CON 288 LD 17 Other 26

    EICIPM Less than 9 months to go
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    The soufflé is rising nicely. Going to be plating beautifully by next May.....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    edited August 2014
    An ex Ranger's player tweets about Celtic, oh dear

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bug0_9GIEAAyZlA.jpg
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    peter_from_putney said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    justin124 said:

    I note that Andrew Cooper has been made a Tory peer. He started his political journey in the Labour party and campaigned hard for them in East Surrey in 1979.

    Didn't Andrew Cooper have a spell with the SDP as well - but only Dave made him a lord.

    Meanwhile I go unrecognised.

    Next time Mike, next time.
    Going to be a hell of a lot of LibDem ex-MP's wanting a peerage next May.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    BBC now trying to wriggle out of those damning Gaza casualty figures; but oh they cannot bare it.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28688179
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    FPT, I hear that JackW is only going to be treating us to one more outpouring of his McARSE ahead of the real vote.

    What's happened - have the other pollsters had a whip-round and given him a bung?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.

    ThescreamingEagles said:


    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?

    MikeK said:

    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.

    How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?

    How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
    I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.
    3 I reckon. And that is a prediction, not hope.
    I reckon it'll be all or nothing.

    Either zero or 4-5
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats why I still say that pollsters like Populus still haven't got to grips with the rise of UKIP.

    ThescreamingEagles said:


    I note, Populus' final poll on the Euros underestimated UKIP by 2.49%

    I believe your prediction for the Euros had UKIP polling 40%, you overestimated UKIP by 12.5%

    Now tell me, which one has the problem accurately getting UKIP's score right?

    MikeK said:

    I am not a pollster TSE and you know it. So what you just wrote is irrelevant. I make optimistic guesses with no claim to accuracy. If you want accuracy, pay me.

    As it happens I've never claimed 40% for the Euros.

    How on earth can you debunk Populus after writing that your "predictions" and so general posts on anything UKIP related are airy-fairy nonsense ?

    How many seats are you predicting for UKIP again ?
    I am predicting 28 seats for UKIP as of the present time. However it's more a hope than a prediction.
    28 more than my prediction.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Draw is layable at 3-1 in the test now, seeing as the game is miles ahead of schedule (16 wickets by lunch day 2) the rain spooking the market is an opportunity I've taken
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    What a poll! Obviously much better for the Tories.

    But what a messy outcome.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    justin124 said:

    ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%

    OGH would tell you that you can't use polling data so far in the past, as methodologies have changed so much.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,480
    justin124 said:

    ICM was the only pollster to understate the Labour lead in 97. A week before polling day it showed the lead at only 5% - compared with the actual outcome of 13%

    But their final poll had it at 10%
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    MikeSmithson said:

    MaxPB said:

    volcanopete said:

    This change in voting patterns in polling maybe mood related.Assuming most people still think Monday-Friday even if they may not all work Mon-Fri.All that music,hating Mondays,Stormy Mondays and some other good blues,all point to Mondays,in general,being a bummer,whilst as the week progresses to Fridays,the thought of being able to enjoy life,the feelgood factor,is back.As the song goes "The eagle flies on Friday".
    The election is on a Thursday which,therefore,may give the Tories a slight advantage in selling their message of "you have never had it so good".


    The Monday poll is conducted over the weekend and the Friday poll is condected on Wednesday AMD Thursday. Labour profit more from good moods and idealism (weekends) and the Tories profitffrom bad moods and realism (working week).
    Fortunately for the Tories general elections are on Thursdays.

    One hopes that when it comes to the general election people won't let these small factors influence their decision and the result will be based on the policies of each party...

    Good thing it's on Thursday indeed.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Slackbladder
    Methodologies are a "guestumation", and therefore down to an element of chance,
    As all posters change methodologies regularly, you are looking at a Grand National, where the "best horse" doesn't always win.
This discussion has been closed.