The latest Redfield poll looks like an outlier – politicalbetting.com

2nd

It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

I think its clear the Tories have ticked down from the 42% range to 40-41%, but still remarkedly consistent in those brackets.

Its Labour figure that is still all over the shop, anywhere from 30% (meaning Starmer is doing utter shit), to 37% (meaning Starmer is doing ok).

tlg86 said:

I'm shocked that OGH thinks a favourable poll for the Tories is an outlier.

OGH is, I think partly correct. Many voters are not happy with Johnson.

I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.

contrarian said:

tlg86 said:

I'm shocked that OGH thinks a favourable poll for the Tories is an outlier.

OGH is, I think partly correct. Many voters are not happy with Johnson.

I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.

That is a good analysis. I will not vote Tory while The Clown is PM, but I am not sure I am yet ready to vote Labour. There are too many nutjobs in Labour who are an anathema to a large number of things I value. That said, there always have been lot of nutjobs in the Tories and I still used to be a member, though back then they weren't running the party. I actually like Starmer, but I still don't think I can put a cross in the red box at a GE. Yet.

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

The remainder of the Trades Unions are still run by the dinosaurs. Sad really. They still are important, but they just remain incapable of growing up.

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

If she focuses her Trade Union on representing its members then that is a good thing both for the union and the Labour Party.

Sainsbury's sitrep. A 3-year-old boy was helpfully pointing out all the empty shelves to his father, and less helpfully trying to scan any barcode that took his fancy regardless of whether they were buying the good in question. Two or three customers without masks took compliance down to around 95 per cent.

One odd thing was the complete absence of bacon which I suspect might have been due to a refrigeration failure overnight meaning all their stock had to be dumped, but I'm guessing.

HYUFD said:

It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

We’ll not know the swing against the SNP and/or Greens until there is a Scotland only poll.

rottenborough said:

Interesting piece on Afghanistan and Biden. (Trigger warning: it is AEP):


"If he is right on that elemental point, history may just judge his Afghan withdrawal to be “the logical, rational and right decision to make”, as he put it. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/24/history-may-just-vindicate-biden-afghanistan/


I had never heard of the Wakhan corridor before reading this.

I'd seen that bit on the map but had no idea what it was called or why it was part of Afghanistan.

Good Lord

The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?

tlg86 said:

On the shopping front, for the first time since the start of the pandemic we were able to get a big jar of marmite. Presumably this is due to lots of beer being brewed.

Good news on both fronts, then.

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

Yes, it is; very good news, I think.

HYUFD said:

It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

Oh, so a "significant" number of Scottish Unionists have been voting for the SNP? Remarkable if true.

In other news, the Pope supports Rangers, and bears defecate in the W. C. at Piccadilly Circus.

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

She was backed by the Socialist Workers Party and the Socialist Party

Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though

tlg86 said:

On the shopping front, for the first time since the start of the pandemic we were able to get a big jar of marmite. Presumably this is due to lots of beer being brewed.

Marmite isn't to everyone's taste, though.

Northern_Al said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though

I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.

Northern_Al said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though

I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.

She is right if her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members.

I dont think that will mean funding Labour under SKS without Socialism


But lets see, today we should celebrate a woman beating the traditional left and right Candidates

Thanks for the article. Isn't the answer fairly clear:

The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.

The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.

The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.

bigjohnowls said:

Northern_Al said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though

I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.

Northern_Al said:

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334

Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though

I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.

She is right if her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members.

I dont think that will mean funding Labour under SKS without Socialism


But lets see, today we should celebrate a woman beating the traditional left and right Candidates

Labour and the Trade Unions would be better financially separate. That way Unite's money can be spent on Unite members, hotel and conference centres and maintaining Len's lifestyle.

That would mean Labour having to go out and raise money like any other party of course which I'm sure you'd hate...

felix said:

isam said:

Good Lord

The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?

The 'old' definition of an outlier was the 'one you don't like'. Still seems to apply.....

Huh, that's awfully similar to my approach when deciding on a gold standard.

Nigel_Foremain said:

contrarian said:

tlg86 said:

I'm shocked that OGH thinks a favourable poll for the Tories is an outlier.

OGH is, I think partly correct. Many voters are not happy with Johnson.

I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.

That is a good analysis. I will not vote Tory while The Clown is PM, but I am not sure I am yet ready to vote Labour. There are too many nutjobs in Labour who are an anathema to a large number of things I value. That said, there always have been lot of nutjobs in the Tories and I still used to be a member, though back then they weren't running the party. I actually like Starmer, but I still don't think I can put a cross in the red box at a GE. Yet.

Mid-term is normally when people are most tempted....

…..

Averages

Con 40.75
Lab 33.75
LD 9.42
SNP 4.75
GRN 6

Redfield latest

43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

Absolute deviations

+2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

Sum of square of deviations

9.02

Doesn't look like an outlier to me

England are shaping up to be all out for 78

Alistair said:

England are shaping up to be all out for 78

A couple of years ago at Headingley England managed to be bowled out for 67 and still won the test match.

I was there.

Pulpstar said:

Averages

Con 40.75
Lab 33.75
LD 9.42
SNP 4.75
GRN 6

Redfield latest

43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

Absolute deviations

+2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

Sum of square of deviations

9.02

Doesn't look like an outlier to me

Narrow Tory lead - polls narrowing

Large Tory lead - outlier.

Alistair said:

England are shaping up to be all out for 78

Pulpstar said:

Averages

Con 40.75
Lab 33.75
LD 9.42
SNP 4.75
GRN 6

Redfield latest

43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

Absolute deviations

+2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

Sum of square of deviations

9.02

Doesn't look like an outlier to me

It is unsuprising that the poll would be represented as such. I actually expected it to be ignored....
Meanwhile the pessimists are all trying to talk England down...

dixiedean said:

I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The title is ridiculous, it just is.

But I stand by my bet for the end of the year. Labour poll lead.

To start getting Labour leads in individual polls, the true lead probably needs to be about 4- say 40-36?

That's about one government screwup that cuts through from here.

The interesting thing is whether Labour can use that (if/when it happens) to build momentum; I suspect that one of the things holding them back is the sense that they aren't winning, so people withdraw backing, so they don't win...

Similarly, a big part of Johnson's appeal is the "say what you like about him, but he's a WINNER." A bit like Trump in that sense. What happens when such a man stops being a winner?

kjh said:

So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

Ducks!

Would make me grouse

Charles said:

kjh said:

So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

Ducks!

Would make me grouse

Or indeed quail.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyhoo, my afternoon work plans have been ruined by OnlyFans.

Thank you to everyone for making your voices heard.

We have secured assurances necessary to support our diverse creator community and have suspended the planned October 1 policy change.

OnlyFans stands for inclusion and we will continue to provide a home for all creators.

https://twitter.com/OnlyFans/status/1430499277302816773

So that's me spending the next few days researching more OnlyFans stuff.

Could be worse. These folk have been looking at tits since before I was born:

http://wythamtits.com/#intro

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....

Indeed, when I first came on this site the big thing was swing back pushed by a certain @RodCrosby, a man with some unfortunate views but he knew his polling. Its been quite a number of years but my recollection was that an opposition which was behind the government mid term was pretty much toast.

Quincel said:

Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.

I detect a persistent lingering smell.

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....

Indeed they would. And I reckon they are headed for re-election.
The only caveat being this is the most unusual first two years for an administration since Churchill's first. So usual rules may not apply.

kjh said:

So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

Ducks!

Any discussions about grammar schools need to mention Mrs Thatcher's brilliant role in reducing the number of grammar schools.

One of her many fine achievements.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

Oh, so a "significant" number of Scottish Unionists have been voting for the SNP? Remarkable if true.

In other news, the Pope supports Rangers, and bears defecate in the W. C. at Piccadilly Circus.

The SNP scores at the last 3 UK general elections have been 4.7% in 2015, 3% in 2017 (the same score Redfield has them on now) and 3.9% in 2019.

Clearly therefore there are some Scots, mainly Unionist, who are prepared to vote SNP to keep a Scottish voice at Westminster, as in 2015 and 2019 but will not vote SNP if they are pushing indyref2 too hard as in 2017

"Clearly" ... "some" ... "mainly Unionist" ... as if Scottish MPs at Westminster would evaporate?

Is it Conservative Gvernment policy to delete all Scottish seats from Westminster?

RobD said:

algarkirk said:

Thanks for the article. Isn't the answer fairly clear:

The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.

The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.

The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.

Isn't 3 too low? The lead is probably somewhere around 6.

I read that as Tory share of vote is 40 + - 3

Nigelb said:

Quincel said:

Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.

I detect a persistent lingering smell.

It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.

News this morning for the ~14 million who received (the) JNJ Covid-19 vaccine. The company says a small study showed a 9 fold increase in antibodies with a 6 month booster.
https://twitter.com/drsanjaygupta/status/1430495851198173190

MarqueeMark said:

Charles said:

kjh said:

So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

Ducks!

Would make me grouse

I'd just snipe....

I’m not going to be able to compete with a twitcher so I’m going to swan off

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Charles said:

kjh said:

So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

Ducks!

Would make me grouse

I'd just snipe....

I’m not going to be able to compete with a twitcher so I’m going to swan off

I knew you would, cock.....

67 for 7

England with three down by tea?

England will still find a way to screw this up.

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Quincel said:

Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.

I detect a persistent lingering smell.

It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.

What desperate need to restock? When did "a significant part of our retail and distribution economy" shut down?

I've already set out what is going on. A shortage of ingredients and packaging reducing the ability of manufacturers to physically make stock. A shortage of labour to produce stock even if they have ingredients and packaging. A shortage of drivers and vehicles to transport stock. A shortage of workers generally if pinged / Covid positive.

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

Quincel said:

Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.

I detect a persistent lingering smell.

It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.

What desperate need to restock? When did "a significant part of our retail and distribution economy" shut down?

I've already set out what is going on. A shortage of ingredients and packaging reducing the ability of manufacturers to physically make stock. A shortage of labour to produce stock even if they have ingredients and packaging. A shortage of drivers and vehicles to transport stock. A shortage of workers generally if pinged / Covid positive.

Many of our shops have been shut for months. Many smaller businesses have not been operating. Their stock will presumably be at zero until they open up again. You are looking at it from the perspective of supermarkets but there is a lot more to retail than that.

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

6 down

7. Really poor performance by India this.

England have shifted the Overton window.