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The latest Redfield poll looks like an outlier – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 25 in General
imageThe latest Redfield poll looks like an outlier – politicalbetting.com

Just looking at the figures in the latest Redfield poll it appears as though it is an outlier. Firstly the CON 43% looks too high compared with other recent surveys and then there is the SNP share. Just 3% is way below what the party achieved at GE2019 and what other polls have been reporting.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,599
    2nd
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,599
    On topic - I thought the best approach was to regard all polls as just one data point amongst many?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    edited August 25
    It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

    The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

    The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

    The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

    However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

    So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,320
    Kane tweets he is staying at Spurs
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,199
    edited August 25
    I think its clear the Tories have ticked down from the 42% range to 40-41%, but still remarkedly consistent in those brackets.

    Its Labour figure that is still all over the shop, anywhere from 30% (meaning Starmer is doing utter shit), to 37% (meaning Starmer is doing ok).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,454
    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,199
    A US intelligence report requested by President Biden into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic is inconclusive, US media reports say.

    Agencies are reportedly divided on whether the virus - first seen in China - was the result of a natural spillover from animal to human or was caused by a laboratory accident.

    A summary of the report is expected to be published in the coming days.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    tlg86 said:

    I'm shocked that OGH thinks a favourable poll for the Tories is an outlier.

    OGH is, I think partly correct. Many voters are not happy with Johnson.

    I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,652
    Interesting piece on Afghanistan and Biden. (Trigger warning: it is AEP):


    "If he is right on that elemental point, history may just judge his Afghan withdrawal to be “the logical, rational and right decision to make”, as he put it. "

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/24/history-may-just-vindicate-biden-afghanistan/


    I had never heard of the Wakhan corridor before reading this.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,456

    tlg86 said:

    I'm shocked that OGH thinks a favourable poll for the Tories is an outlier.

    OGH is, I think partly correct. Many voters are not happy with Johnson.

    I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.
    That is a good analysis. I will not vote Tory while The Clown is PM, but I am not sure I am yet ready to vote Labour. There are too many nutjobs in Labour who are an anathema to a large number of things I value. That said, there always have been lot of nutjobs in the Tories and I still used to be a member, though back then they weren't running the party. I actually like Starmer, but I still don't think I can put a cross in the red box at a GE. Yet.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,589
    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,456

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    The remainder of the Trades Unions are still run by the dinosaurs. Sad really. They still are important, but they just remain incapable of growing up.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,456
    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    I don't think grammar schools are the answer. Free independent schools are though. The fact that all the nutjobs in the teaching unions oppose "free schools" mean that no far left teachers would work in them. That would be a pretty good reason to send one's kids to one.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,101

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    If she focuses her Trade Union on representing its members then that is a good thing both for the union and the Labour Party.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,757
    Sainsbury's sitrep. A 3-year-old boy was helpfully pointing out all the empty shelves to his father, and less helpfully trying to scan any barcode that took his fancy regardless of whether they were buying the good in question. Two or three customers without masks took compliance down to around 95 per cent.

    One odd thing was the complete absence of bacon which I suspect might have been due to a refrigeration failure overnight meaning all their stock had to be dumped, but I'm guessing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,182
    Good news for Tottenham and football generally that Harry Kane is staying at White Hart Lane. Man City are a pointless club who cannot be allowed to buy the game.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,925
    I have to disagree with Mike here. It doesn't look too much like an outlier to me. It is at the top end of the Tory leads, but not by much.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 737
    HYUFD said:

    It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

    The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

    The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

    The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

    However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

    So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

    We’ll not know the swing against the SNP and/or Greens until there is a Scotland only poll.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,925

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821

    Interesting piece on Afghanistan and Biden. (Trigger warning: it is AEP):


    "If he is right on that elemental point, history may just judge his Afghan withdrawal to be “the logical, rational and right decision to make”, as he put it. "

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/24/history-may-just-vindicate-biden-afghanistan/


    I had never heard of the Wakhan corridor before reading this.

    I'd seen that bit on the map but had no idea what it was called or why it was part of Afghanistan.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,757

    Good news for Tottenham and football generally that Harry Kane is staying at White Hart Lane. Man City are a pointless club who cannot be allowed to buy the game.

    Spurs are obviously rattled that West Ham top the table. They should end the season now imo.
    https://www.premierleague.com/tables
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,727
    On the shopping front, for the first time since the start of the pandemic we were able to get a big jar of marmite. Presumably this is due to lots of beer being brewed.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    edited August 25
    Good Lord

    The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

    The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

    How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?



  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.




  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    tlg86 said:

    On the shopping front, for the first time since the start of the pandemic we were able to get a big jar of marmite. Presumably this is due to lots of beer being brewed.

    Good news on both fronts, then.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,007

    Good news for Tottenham and football generally that Harry Kane is staying at White Hart Lane. Man City are a pointless club who cannot be allowed to buy the game.

    It's Arsenal who are pointless, isn't it? Still, only two games played.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,007

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Yes, it is; very good news, I think.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,835
    edited August 25

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    I was bemused by @NickPalmer 's categories yesterday.

    Steve Turner as Orthodox leftwinger, backed by the mainstream left.
    Sharon Graham as 'interesting', though supported by Socialist Party & SWP.
    Gerard Coyne as 'feuding centrist'.

    Turner is a former unembarrassed afaics member of the Militant Tendency. Surprising that he is not backed by the Socialist Party, which is the successor of Militant, and has controlled the secretariat of a couple of minor Trades Unions, which tend to pop up in support of crazier student causes sometimes. To me, that is not mainstream.

    I expect that all of them would be less petty than McCluskey, and I'll be interested to see if efforts to suborn Labour continue, and what happens to the "bully top managers at their homes" practise.

    Question: will Graham lead UNITE to disaffiliate? IMO that would be the best long term outcome for Labour, but that's probably why Nick is Nick, and I'm me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,612
    HYUFD said:

    It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

    The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

    The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

    The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

    However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

    So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

    Oh, so a "significant" number of Scottish Unionists have been voting for the SNP? Remarkable if true.

    In other news, the Pope supports Rangers, and bears defecate in the W. C. at Piccadilly Circus.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,101
    Quincel said:

    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.



    1 Global supply issues. Long lead times on staple ingredients and packaging.
    2 Brexit issues related to import of items covered by 1 and available labour in the UK farming/manufacturing/production process
    3 Logistics issues related to Covid, IR35 and Brexit
    4 Labour issues related to Covid and Brexit

    Nobody involved expects anything other than the problems getting worse. Elements of it significantly so.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,589
    edited August 25

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    She was backed by the Socialist Workers Party and the Socialist Party

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,007
    tlg86 said:

    On the shopping front, for the first time since the start of the pandemic we were able to get a big jar of marmite. Presumably this is due to lots of beer being brewed.

    Marmite isn't to everyone's taste, though.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,503

    Good news for Tottenham and football generally that Harry Kane is staying at White Hart Lane. Man City are a pointless club who cannot be allowed to buy the game.

    They have 3 points actually :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,589

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.
    She is right if her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members.

    I dont think that will mean funding Labour under SKS without Socialism


    But lets see, today we should celebrate a woman beating the traditional left and right Candidates
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,460

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.
    Yes, rather agree. I didn't consider voting for Coyne as he is too closely associated with the internal feuding, and really we need to move on from that. Wouldn't have considered Beckett either for the same reason. Graham should be OK for us, unless there's some huge blowup over Labour staff, and with luck will be good for UNITE too. A female UNITE leader makes a nice change.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,399
    Thanks for the article. Isn't the answer fairly clear:

    The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.

    The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.

    The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,714
    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. Isn't the answer fairly clear:

    The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.

    The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.

    The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.

    Isn't 3 too low? The lead is probably somewhere around 6.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,101

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.
    She is right if her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members.

    I dont think that will mean funding Labour under SKS without Socialism


    But lets see, today we should celebrate a woman beating the traditional left and right Candidates
    Labour and the Trade Unions would be better financially separate. That way Unite's money can be spent on Unite members, hotel and conference centres and maintaining Len's lifestyle.

    That would mean Labour having to go out and raise money like any other party of course which I'm sure you'd hate...
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,726
    isam said:

    Good Lord

    The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

    The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

    How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?



    The 'old' definition of an outlier was the 'one you don't like'. Still seems to apply.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,714
    edited August 25
    felix said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord

    The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

    The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

    How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?



    The 'old' definition of an outlier was the 'one you don't like'. Still seems to apply.....
    Huh, that's awfully similar to my approach when deciding on a gold standard. ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528

    tlg86 said:

    I'm shocked that OGH thinks a favourable poll for the Tories is an outlier.

    OGH is, I think partly correct. Many voters are not happy with Johnson.

    I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.
    That is a good analysis. I will not vote Tory while The Clown is PM, but I am not sure I am yet ready to vote Labour. There are too many nutjobs in Labour who are an anathema to a large number of things I value. That said, there always have been lot of nutjobs in the Tories and I still used to be a member, though back then they weren't running the party. I actually like Starmer, but I still don't think I can put a cross in the red box at a GE. Yet.
    Mid-term is normally when people are most tempted....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. Isn't the answer fairly clear:

    The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.

    The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.

    The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.

    Isn't 3 too low? The lead is probably somewhere around 6.
    True lead is about 6 or 7 I reckon; given that you'd expect some individual polls to give leads of 3 and others leads of 10. Question is what you do with that information.

    One answer is that that's really good for midterm and the only way is up for the Conservatives when swingback kicks in.

    The other is that there are an awful lot of consequences due to become real over the next year or two, and the governmental fundamentals (that BoJo is an effective short-term campaigner but a rotten governor who has appointed rotten subordinates and everyone loves BoJo before they hate him) are still against him.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    edited August 25
    …..
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    felix said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord

    The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

    The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

    How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?



    The 'old' definition of an outlier was the 'one you don't like'. Still seems to apply.....
    Yes, I remember that
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,520
    Averages

    Con 40.75
    Lab 33.75
    LD 9.42
    SNP 4.75
    GRN 6

    Redfield latest

    43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

    Absolute deviations

    +2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

    Sum of square of deviations

    9.02

    Doesn't look like an outlier to me
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    India doing an England
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    England are shaping up to be all out for 78
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,575
    felix said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord

    The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

    The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

    How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?



    The 'old' definition of an outlier was the 'one you don't like'. Still seems to apply.....
    Just a shame that the actual elections generally turn out to be outliers, as well.
  • Alistair said:

    England are shaping up to be all out for 78

    A couple of years ago at Headingley England managed to be bowled out for 67 and still won the test match.

    I was there.
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  • TazTaz Posts: 2,477
    Pulpstar said:

    Averages

    Con 40.75
    Lab 33.75
    LD 9.42
    SNP 4.75
    GRN 6

    Redfield latest

    43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

    Absolute deviations

    +2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

    Sum of square of deviations

    9.02

    Doesn't look like an outlier to me

    Narrow Tory lead - polls narrowing

    Large Tory lead - outlier.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    Yes, an outlier. I assess the Con lead at around 6 points. Maybe 7 at a push.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited August 25
    Alistair said:

    England are shaping up to be all out for 78

    Pulpstar said:

    Averages

    Con 40.75
    Lab 33.75
    LD 9.42
    SNP 4.75
    GRN 6

    Redfield latest

    43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

    Absolute deviations

    +2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

    Sum of square of deviations

    9.02

    Doesn't look like an outlier to me

    It is unsuprising that the poll would be represented as such. I actually expected it to be ignored....
    Meanwhile the pessimists are all trying to talk England down...
  • The title is ridiculous, it just is.

    But I stand by my bet for the end of the year. Labour poll lead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    dixiedean said:

    I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

    Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,835
    isam said:

    felix said:

    isam said:

    Good Lord

    The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier

    The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?

    How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?



    The 'old' definition of an outlier was the 'one you don't like'. Still seems to apply.....
    Yes, I remember that
    It's all in the timing of the holiday :smile:
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260

    The title is ridiculous, it just is.

    But I stand by my bet for the end of the year. Labour poll lead.

    To start getting Labour leads in individual polls, the true lead probably needs to be about 4- say 40-36?

    That's about one government screwup that cuts through from here.

    The interesting thing is whether Labour can use that (if/when it happens) to build momentum; I suspect that one of the things holding them back is the sense that they aren't winning, so people withdraw backing, so they don't win...

    Similarly, a big part of Johnson's appeal is the "say what you like about him, but he's a WINNER." A bit like Trump in that sense. What happens when such a man stops being a winner?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Averages

    Con 40.75
    Lab 33.75
    LD 9.42
    SNP 4.75
    GRN 6

    Redfield latest

    43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6

    Absolute deviations

    +2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0

    Sum of square of deviations

    9.02

    Doesn't look like an outlier to me

    Narrow Tory lead - polls narrowing

    Large Tory lead - outlier.
    It just a ‘more popular than the others bounce’
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Would make me grouse
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,589

    The title is ridiculous, it just is.

    But I stand by my bet for the end of the year. Labour poll lead.

    18 weeks to go.

    Lab Conference would be best opportunity IMO
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,612
    Charles said:

    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Would make me grouse
    Or indeed quail.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    Charles said:

    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Would make me grouse
    I'd just snipe....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,612

    Anyhoo, my afternoon work plans have been ruined by OnlyFans.

    Thank you to everyone for making your voices heard.

    We have secured assurances necessary to support our diverse creator community and have suspended the planned October 1 policy change.

    OnlyFans stands for inclusion and we will continue to provide a home for all creators.


    https://twitter.com/OnlyFans/status/1430499277302816773

    So that's me spending the next few days researching more OnlyFans stuff.

    Could be worse. These folk have been looking at tits since before I was born:

    http://wythamtits.com/#intro
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528

    The title is ridiculous, it just is.

    But I stand by my bet for the end of the year. Labour poll lead.

    Honeymoon of a new Labour leader? 😉
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283

    dixiedean said:

    I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

    Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....
    Indeed, when I first came on this site the big thing was swing back pushed by a certain @RodCrosby, a man with some unfortunate views but he knew his polling. Its been quite a number of years but my recollection was that an opposition which was behind the government mid term was pretty much toast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,523
    edited August 25
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

    The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

    The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

    The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

    However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

    So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

    Oh, so a "significant" number of Scottish Unionists have been voting for the SNP? Remarkable if true.

    In other news, the Pope supports Rangers, and bears defecate in the W. C. at Piccadilly Circus.
    The SNP scores at the last 3 UK general elections have been 4.7% in 2015, 3% in 2017 (the same score Redfield has them on now) and 3.9% in 2019.

    Clearly therefore there are some Scots, mainly Unionist, who are prepared to vote SNP to keep a Scottish voice at Westminster, as in 2015 and 2019 but will not vote SNP if they are pushing indyref2 too hard as in 2017
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Quincel said:

    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.



    I detect a persistent lingering smell.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    edited August 25
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

    Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....
    Indeed, when I first came on this site the big thing was swing back pushed by a certain @RodCrosby, a man with some unfortunate views but he knew his polling. Its been quite a number of years but my recollection was that an opposition which was behind the government mid term was pretty much toast.
    Just wait til Sir Keir gets the chance to dazzle people in the flesh!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524

    dixiedean said:

    I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

    Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....
    Indeed they would. And I reckon they are headed for re-election.
    The only caveat being this is the most unusual first two years for an administration since Churchill's first. So usual rules may not apply.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Yes, it is; very good news, I think.
    Where’s she sit in the spectrum of left wing nutter to boring functionary?
  • kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Any discussions about grammar schools need to mention Mrs Thatcher's brilliant role in reducing the number of grammar schools.

    One of her many fine achievements.
  • If Labour gains any seats in 2024 - which fits into my 2015 in reverse possibility - Starmer will in years to come be known as the leader that saved Labour from collapse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,612
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    It does not look like that much of an outlier in terms of the Labour share. The Labour share of 33% with Redfield is actually higher than the 32% Labour are on with Yougov and the 30% they are on with Ipsos Mori in their latest polls.

    The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.

    The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.

    The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.

    However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.

    So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation

    Oh, so a "significant" number of Scottish Unionists have been voting for the SNP? Remarkable if true.

    In other news, the Pope supports Rangers, and bears defecate in the W. C. at Piccadilly Circus.
    The SNP scores at the last 3 UK general elections have been 4.7% in 2015, 3% in 2017 (the same score Redfield has them on now) and 3.9% in 2019.

    Clearly therefore there are some Scots, mainly Unionist, who are prepared to vote SNP to keep a Scottish voice at Westminster, as in 2015 and 2019 but will not vote SNP if they are pushing indyref2 too hard as in 2017
    "Clearly" ... "some" ... "mainly Unionist" ... as if Scottish MPs at Westminster would evaporate?

    Is it Conservative Gvernment policy to delete all Scottish seats from Westminster?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.
    Yes, rather agree. I didn't consider voting for Coyne as he is too closely associated with the internal feuding, and really we need to move on from that. Wouldn't have considered Beckett either for the same reason. Graham should be OK for us, unless there's some huge blowup over Labour staff, and with luck will be good for UNITE too. A female UNITE leader makes a nice change.
    Was Karie Murphy a nice change?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. Isn't the answer fairly clear:

    The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.

    The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.

    The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.

    Isn't 3 too low? The lead is probably somewhere around 6.
    I read that as Tory share of vote is 40 + - 3
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Former US ambassador to NATO.
    https://twitter.com/IvoHDaalder/status/1430296067225133060
    While Biden owns the consequence of his decision, which are now playing out, his critics should own up to the fact that the real alternative would have been a major escalation of a war that most Americans had long come to oppose....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283
    Nigelb said:

    Quincel said:

    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.



    I detect a persistent lingering smell.
    It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

    In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm sure this has been pointed out, but this is entirely consistent with 41 34. Which appears to be where we are at.

    Most Govt's would take that, towards the end of their second year.....
    Indeed they would. And I reckon they are headed for re-election.
    The only caveat being this is the most unusual first two years for an administration since Churchill's first. So usual rules may not apply.
    Indeed. But there have been several opportunities for the Opposition to crucify the Government over aspects of their response in those unusual two years. But they have not pinned it on the Government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    News this morning for the ~14 million who received (the) JNJ Covid-19 vaccine. The company says a small study showed a 9 fold increase in antibodies with a 6 month booster.
    https://twitter.com/drsanjaygupta/status/1430495851198173190
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    6 down
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932

    Charles said:

    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Would make me grouse
    I'd just snipe....
    I’m not going to be able to compete with a twitcher so I’m going to swan off
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,199
    edited August 25
    BBC News - OnlyFans suspends policy change after backlash
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58331722

    Quite a U-turn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Would make me grouse
    I'd just snipe....
    I’m not going to be able to compete with a twitcher so I’m going to swan off
    I knew you would, cock.....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,101
    Charles said:

    CONFIRMED: Sharon Graham (
    @UniteSharon
    ) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:

    Sharon Graham - 46,696
    Steve Turner - 41,833
    Gerard Coyne - 35,334

    Looks like good news for Unite and the Labour party.

    Sharon Graham was the most Anti SKS candidate wasn't she?

    Apart from Beckett who withdrew.

    Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.

    I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
    I think it's good news for Labour because she's made it clear that her focus in on the core business of getting good deals for her members. So, for example, I don't expect her to start spouting off about her views on the situation in the Middle East, or to demand that Labour re-admit Corbyn or Loach, as her predecessor was inclined to do.
    Yes, rather agree. I didn't consider voting for Coyne as he is too closely associated with the internal feuding, and really we need to move on from that. Wouldn't have considered Beckett either for the same reason. Graham should be OK for us, unless there's some huge blowup over Labour staff, and with luck will be good for UNITE too. A female UNITE leader makes a nice change.
    Was Karie Murphy a nice change?
    Or Jennie Formby. The ex-General Secretary of a party who under her stewardship got called out as institutionally anti-semitic and what is her Twitter image? A clenched fist Free Palestine logo.

    I have to be in favour of positive discrimination when it comes to such roles as without it the discrimination is always in favour of the bloke. But there has to be a competence bar for candidates...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    67 for 7
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,320
    67 v 7
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    England with three down by tea?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Quincel said:

    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.



    I detect a persistent lingering smell.
    It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

    In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.
    Although labour shortages see to be everywhere.

    One of my neighbours has a steel distribution company and he was complaining that he could only get 60-70% of volumes - lots of mills closing down in Asia for maintenance and/or labour shortages

    He has stopped supplying new customers and focusing on serving long term partners
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,199
    England will still find a way to screw this up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283

    6 down

    7. Really poor performance by India this.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,101
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Quincel said:

    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.



    I detect a persistent lingering smell.
    It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

    In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.
    What desperate need to restock? When did "a significant part of our retail and distribution economy" shut down?

    I've already set out what is going on. A shortage of ingredients and packaging reducing the ability of manufacturers to physically make stock. A shortage of labour to produce stock even if they have ingredients and packaging. A shortage of drivers and vehicles to transport stock. A shortage of workers generally if pinged / Covid positive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    edited August 25

    Charles said:

    kjh said:

    So who wants a discussion about Grammar schools then?

    Ducks!

    Would make me grouse
    I'd just snipe....
    You would say that, cock.
    I see you got there before me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,283

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Quincel said:

    Finally some data to follow the anecdotes on empty shelves (or lack thereof). Apparently there genuinely are unprecedented supply chain issues in the UK right now. As for why that is: Feel free to argue amongst yourselves, and remember a mix of a few things is more common than a single simple explanation.



    I detect a persistent lingering smell.
    It's almost as if a significant part of our retail and distribution economy had been closed for a substantial period of time and now needs to restock as they open up again. Weird. What on earth could have caused that?

    In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.
    What desperate need to restock? When did "a significant part of our retail and distribution economy" shut down?

    I've already set out what is going on. A shortage of ingredients and packaging reducing the ability of manufacturers to physically make stock. A shortage of labour to produce stock even if they have ingredients and packaging. A shortage of drivers and vehicles to transport stock. A shortage of workers generally if pinged / Covid positive.
    Many of our shops have been shut for months. Many smaller businesses have not been operating. Their stock will presumably be at zero until they open up again. You are looking at it from the perspective of supermarkets but there is a lot more to retail than that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,528
    8 down - subject to review
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    DavidL said:

    6 down

    7. Really poor performance by India this.
    England have shifted the Overton window.
This discussion has been closed.