Categories
The latest Redfield poll looks like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
The latest Redfield poll looks like an outlier – politicalbetting.com
Just looking at the figures in the latest Redfield poll it appears as though it is an outlier. Firstly the CON 43% looks too high compared with other recent surveys and then there is the SNP share. Just 3% is way below what the party achieved at GE2019 and what other polls have been reporting.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The LD share looks also about right, at 10% within the same range of 8-13% of the other pollsters.
The Green share of 6% is also the same as Opinium's.
The difference therefore is as OGH suggests with the Conservatives, who on 43% are higher than any other pollster with Redfield and the SNP who on 3% are lower than any other pollster with Redfield.
However Redfield is also the only poll to be taken fully after the SNP and Green deal which pushed for indyref2 by the end of 2023.
So we need further polls to see if, as Redfield suggests, there has been a significant swing from the SNP to the Scottish Conservatives after Sturgeon's deal with Harvie, perhaps from Unionists who do not want a second referendum for a generation
Its Labour figure that is still all over the shop, anywhere from 30% (meaning Starmer is doing utter shit), to 37% (meaning Starmer is doing ok).
Ducks!
Agencies are reportedly divided on whether the virus - first seen in China - was the result of a natural spillover from animal to human or was caused by a laboratory accident.
A summary of the report is expected to be published in the coming days.
I'm not sure, though that this is going to translate into increased support for labour. Plenty of homeless voters out there, and tory abstainers.
"If he is right on that elemental point, history may just judge his Afghan withdrawal to be “the logical, rational and right decision to make”, as he put it. "
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/24/history-may-just-vindicate-biden-afghanistan/
I had never heard of the Wakhan corridor before reading this.
@UniteSharon
) is the next General Secretary of Unite the union. Results:
Sharon Graham - 46,696
Steve Turner - 41,833
Gerard Coyne - 35,334
One odd thing was the complete absence of bacon which I suspect might have been due to a refrigeration failure overnight meaning all their stock had to be dumped, but I'm guessing.
https://www.premierleague.com/tables
NEW Westminster Voting Intention
Con 41 (=)
Lab 34 (=)
LDM 9 (=)
GRN 4 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Other 7 (=)
20-22 Aug, 2,083 UK adults
(Changes from 13-15 Aug)
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1430451877586604039?s=20
It's the 3 & 4 point leads that look like the outliers....
The lowest poll lead is treated as a resource to analyse Boris’s ratings, the second highest is dismissed as an outlier
The current poll leads are 3%, 7%, 8%, 10, & 11%…. So the average is 8%…& the 10% is the outlier?
How can a poll that’s not even the extreme of the range be an outlier?
Steve Turner as Orthodox leftwinger, backed by the mainstream left.
Sharon Graham as 'interesting', though supported by Socialist Party & SWP.
Gerard Coyne as 'feuding centrist'.
Turner is a former unembarrassed afaics member of the Militant Tendency. Surprising that he is not backed by the Socialist Party, which is the successor of Militant, and has controlled the secretariat of a couple of minor Trades Unions, which tend to pop up in support of crazier student causes sometimes. To me, that is not mainstream.
I expect that all of them would be less petty than McCluskey, and I'll be interested to see if efforts to suborn Labour continue, and what happens to the "bully top managers at their homes" practise.
Question: will Graham lead UNITE to disaffiliate? IMO that would be the best long term outcome for Labour, but that's probably why Nick is Nick, and I'm me.
In other news, the Pope supports Rangers, and bears defecate in the W. C. at Piccadilly Circus.
2 Brexit issues related to import of items covered by 1 and available labour in the UK farming/manufacturing/production process
3 Logistics issues related to Covid, IR35 and Brexit
4 Labour issues related to Covid and Brexit
Nobody involved expects anything other than the problems getting worse. Elements of it significantly so.
Apart from Beckett who withdrew.
She was backed by the Socialist Workers Party and the Socialist Party
Coyne was most pro SKS and he came last despite the backing of Murdoch and the usual suspects in the PLP.
I agree with you she is good news for UNITE members though
I dont think that will mean funding Labour under SKS without Socialism
But lets see, today we should celebrate a woman beating the traditional left and right Candidates
The Tory figure is in the range of + or - 3 percentage points of the true state of affairs.
The SNP figure is subject to greater potential for fluctuation as all its numbers come from 10% or so of the total GB population sampled, so its figure even in national polls is in fact a subset taken from a small sample.
The extraordinary thing, now beginning to defy gravity, is the holding up of the Tory figure.
That would mean Labour having to go out and raise money like any other party of course which I'm sure you'd hate...
One answer is that that's really good for midterm and the only way is up for the Conservatives when swingback kicks in.
The other is that there are an awful lot of consequences due to become real over the next year or two, and the governmental fundamentals (that BoJo is an effective short-term campaigner but a rotten governor who has appointed rotten subordinates and everyone loves BoJo before they hate him) are still against him.
Con 40.75
Lab 33.75
LD 9.42
SNP 4.75
GRN 6
Redfield latest
43 / 33 / 10 / 3 / 6
Absolute deviations
+2.25 / -0.75 / +0.58 / -1.75 / 0
Sum of square of deviations
9.02
Doesn't look like an outlier to me
I was there.
Thank you to everyone for making your voices heard.
We have secured assurances necessary to support our diverse creator community and have suspended the planned October 1 policy change.
OnlyFans stands for inclusion and we will continue to provide a home for all creators.
https://twitter.com/OnlyFans/status/1430499277302816773
So that's me spending the next few days researching more OnlyFans stuff.
Large Tory lead - outlier.
Meanwhile the pessimists are all trying to talk England down...
But I stand by my bet for the end of the year. Labour poll lead.
That's about one government screwup that cuts through from here.
The interesting thing is whether Labour can use that (if/when it happens) to build momentum; I suspect that one of the things holding them back is the sense that they aren't winning, so people withdraw backing, so they don't win...
Similarly, a big part of Johnson's appeal is the "say what you like about him, but he's a WINNER." A bit like Trump in that sense. What happens when such a man stops being a winner?
Lab Conference would be best opportunity IMO
http://wythamtits.com/#intro
Clearly therefore there are some Scots, mainly Unionist, who are prepared to vote SNP to keep a Scottish voice at Westminster, as in 2015 and 2019 but will not vote SNP if they are pushing indyref2 too hard as in 2017
The only caveat being this is the most unusual first two years for an administration since Churchill's first. So usual rules may not apply.
One of her many fine achievements.
Is it Conservative Gvernment policy to delete all Scottish seats from Westminster?
https://twitter.com/IvoHDaalder/status/1430296067225133060
While Biden owns the consequence of his decision, which are now playing out, his critics should own up to the fact that the real alternative would have been a major escalation of a war that most Americans had long come to oppose....
In all seriousness that desperate need to restock is probably what is driving the very acute shortage of drivers.
https://twitter.com/drsanjaygupta/status/1430495851198173190
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58331722
Quite a U-turn.
I have to be in favour of positive discrimination when it comes to such roles as without it the discrimination is always in favour of the bloke. But there has to be a competence bar for candidates...
One of my neighbours has a steel distribution company and he was complaining that he could only get 60-70% of volumes - lots of mills closing down in Asia for maintenance and/or labour shortages
He has stopped supplying new customers and focusing on serving long term partners
I've already set out what is going on. A shortage of ingredients and packaging reducing the ability of manufacturers to physically make stock. A shortage of labour to produce stock even if they have ingredients and packaging. A shortage of drivers and vehicles to transport stock. A shortage of workers generally if pinged / Covid positive.
I see you got there before me.