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Our first taste of a packed House of Commons for 17 months – politicalbetting.com

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  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,149

    You can't rely on public opinion being stable on war issues - quite understandably they respond to events, and less understandably they often forget that they previously thought differently.
    True. I think it's because most people will give some kind of yes/no answer to an opinion poll, but will not necessarily have thought much about it, so it's not so much that they have really changed their minds an forgotten/denying that as they moved from no real opinion to a clear opinion. So you get a majority favouring invading Iraq when it's happening say, but a clear majority who say they never favoured invading Iraq. Most of those probably had no strong opinion at the time, but preferred not to say 'don't know' when asked and went largely on the last thing they'd heard/what they thought others' opinions were, even on what was happening - the government were doing it, so presumably it was a good idea.

    (See also lockdowns etc, polling might have been quite different on hypothetical lockdowns pre-Covid and may change a lot five years down the line, say).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:

    Why is Delta so much more contagious than prior #SARSCoV2 variants?
    It achieves membrane fusion far more efficiently and faster

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1427993987009318927

    Alas, this twit won't load for me. Is there a link to a paper/study? Very interested and thanks for posting
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    TimT said:

    Alas, this twit won't load for me. Is there a link to a paper/study? Very interested and thanks for posting
    Here:
    Membrane fusion and immune evasion by the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.17.456689v1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Andy_JS said:

    Mission creep I suppose.
    The conventional wisdom at the time was that the reason that things had gone wrong in Afghanistan was, that

    - The Russians massive military intervention had put everyone in Afghanistan against them
    - After they were defeated - "The West abandoned Afghanistan".
    - Which allowed Osama and chums to roll in.

    So, the conventional wisdom was that the intervention in Afghanistan should be Afghan led (if possible) and followed up with lots of... nation building.

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Nigelb said:

    Two initial conclusions from this...

    1) The House of Lords might be a very useful advisory institution... if anyone took any notice of it.
    2) It's utter shite to claim that no one saw this coming.
    Without large external armed forces permanently in Afghanistan then this was always going to happen. Anyone who "rules" Afghanistan will either be corrupt or madly religious. It will never ever be a place with a decent settled Government operating for the benefit of the population.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287

    Something else - on various Twitter messages etc there are reports that Afghan soldiers were told to stand down by their senior commanders, because there was a peace deal.

    And apparently, Afghan Vice President Saleh has stepped up, put together a force (in conjunction with Ahmad Massoud) and retaken the Charikar area from Taliban.
    Yes, he was on the radio last night, claiming to be the legitimate president of Afghanistan as Ghani had effectively resigned by running away, and saying that he would stay and fight.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    isam said:

    Ah. I am slightly hurt you think that, but I wouldn't have anyway
    I feel bad now. Please forget I ever said anything. We'll ctl alt del with this one and I'll assess things objectively from here based only on what I see.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287

    The conventional wisdom at the time was that the reason that things had gone wrong in Afghanistan was, that

    - The Russians massive military intervention had put everyone in Afghanistan against them
    - After they were defeated - "The West abandoned Afghanistan".
    - Which allowed Osama and chums to roll in.

    So, the conventional wisdom was that the intervention in Afghanistan should be Afghan led (if possible) and followed up with lots of... nation building.

    Warlord led would be more accurate.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,149
    edited August 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    LOL!

    The Lib-Dems: Never knowingly having fewer than two positions at the same time on any subject since 1989! :D
    To be fair, these are two positions at different times, which is more defensible than two positions at the same time for different electorates.

    If the British public really care about this, then presumably we can expect a Lib Dem surge... Although, unlike when Kennedy was against the Iraq war, I doubt many have noticed Davey's (present) position, or indeed noticed Davey at all.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2021
    Completely off topic (I cant understand why people use "OT" as shorthand for that, as it could mean "On topic" as well), last night I did a v boring thing - watched a rerun of a snooker match I had recorded from the previous evening.

    Mark Allen vs Reanna Evans in the British Open. The context of them being former partners who were now on bad terms made it quite enthralling viewing, possibly one of the most tense sporting encounters of all time. Evans refusing his offer of a fist bump at he start set the icy tone
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, he was on the radio last night, claiming to be the legitimate president of Afghanistan as Ghani had effectively resigned by running away, and saying that he would stay and fight.
    Parliament pulled the same 'you've resigned by running away so we're in charge' move in 1689.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    isam said:

    Completely off topic (I cant understand why people use "OT" as shorthand for that, as it could mean "On topic" as well),

    Many forums may be more rigorous about keeping discussion on topic so OT more commonly means off topic.

    Here I use it for on topic...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    kle4 said:

    Parliament pulled the same 'you've resigned by running away so we're in charge' move in 1689.
    Well if he stays and defeats the Taliban, he'll deserve to be the president.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Nigelb said:

    Warlord led would be more accurate.
    "Major-Generals" for a UK context? :-)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,149
    Pulpstar said:

    Well if he stays and defeats the Taliban, he'll deserve to be the president.
    President of Afghanisan? :open_mouth: If he defeats the Taliban, I rather think he should be rewarded, not punished!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Looks like we can expect the percentage vaccinated numbers to drop tomorrow as the UK switches from percent of adult population to percent of 16 and over. From the UK COVID Dashboard:

    "On Thursday 19 August, headline vaccination uptake by report date for the UK and nations will be updated to include ages 16 and 17 in the denominator."
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:

    Here:
    Membrane fusion and immune evasion by the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.17.456689v1
    Thanks
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited August 2021
    With many Taliban leaders claiming various religious authority and titles I'll confess I've never actually understood how senior clerics come to be acknowledged in Islam (though I'm sure its different across different branches).

    Does one just study at a religious school and becomed learned in scripture and law and then start opining on religious matters, and if enough people think it makes sense hey presto you're a mullah/ayatollah?

    What if you then coast on your laurels?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Just saw Bill Nye's book, Indisputable (about evolution), in my daughter's room. And it made me think how our real time tracking of the new COVID variants, with Alpha and Delta serially outcompeting their predecessors, is perfect evidence with which to confront denialists to prove that evolution is real and ongoing
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    Absolutely terrible ratings for Laschet as preferred Chancellor.

    image
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    kle4 said:

    With many Taliban leaders claiming various religious authority and titles I'll confess I've never actually understood how senior clerics come to be acknowledged in Islam (though I'm sure its different across different branches).

    Does one just study at a religious school and becomed learned in scripture and law and then start opining on religious matters, and if enough people think it makes sense hey presto you're a mullah/ayatollah?

    What if you then coast on your laurels?

    Essentially, yes. There's not really an establishment hierarchy in the way that the Roman Catholic church is organised.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 437
    kle4 said:

    Does one just study at a religious school and becomed learned in scripture and law and then start opining on religious matters, and if enough people think it makes sense hey presto you're a mullah/ayatollah?

    That's my understanding, at least to be a mullah in Afghanistan. Historically, you could even drop the "study at a religious school and becomed learned in scripture and law" bit outside cities. Essentially, for hundreds of years, the existing village mullah would have an apprentice, who would gradually start to be treated like a mullah by his villagers, provided they respected him.

    But I would guess it varies. Imagine trying to answer a similar question for Christianity, after all! For example I associate "Ayatollah" with Shia Islam, but I couldn't say with confidence that Sunnis don't use the term too.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,149
    TimT said:

    Just saw Bill Nye's book, Indisputable (about evolution), in my daughter's room. And it made me think how our real time tracking of the new COVID variants, with Alpha and Delta serially outcompeting their predecessors, is perfect evidence with which to confront denialists to prove that evolution is real and ongoing

    It would be, if the denialists had any interest in evidence.

    The alternative 'theories' for how we all came to be can equally be applied to Covid variants, I guess.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422

    Absolutely terrible ratings for Laschet as preferred Chancellor.

    image

    Baerbock is my preference...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Essentially, yes. There's not really an establishment hierarchy in the way that the Roman Catholic church is organised.
    In fairness despite reading plenty on how the ideas affected politics I'm so blinkered I dont really wrap my head around the idea of Presbyterianism churches organise even.

    Were I religious I'd definitely fall in with whatever was the most hierarchical.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kle4 said:

    In fairness despite reading plenty on how the ideas affected politics I'm so blinkered I dont really wrap my head around the idea of Presbyterianism churches organise even.

    Were I religious I'd definitely fall in with whatever was the most hierarchical.
    I think I'd be the opposite, a Quaker.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    This is why it is ridiculous to spend Western blood and cash on these tin pot nations.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KawoonKhamoosh/status/1427907632040398849
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited August 2021

    Absolutely terrible ratings for Laschet as preferred Chancellor.

    image

    Rough numbers, what the heck is wrong with the chap?

    I'm going to take a stab and guess that 'keiner davon' means 'don't know' and not that it is the leader of the grey party.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    Absolutely terrible ratings for Laschet as preferred Chancellor.

    image

    Not surprised. The guy is an idiot and in the back pocket of Germany's worst polluters. It's shocking that a nation as advanced as Germany is still burning surface lignite to keep the lights on.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    GIN1138 said:

    LOL!

    The Lib-Dems: Never knowingly having fewer than two positions at the same time on any subject since 1989! :D
    The idea of anchoring on a number of refugees just show how barmy the debate is. Surely what is relevant is the rules for being able to come here or not. Translators for Western troops, translators' parents and siblings, Afghan national soldiers, people fleeing autocratic rule, university lecturers etc. That is a sensible debate to have.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    I'm wildly late to the party on this one, but...
    Sandpit said:

    “By boat” being the key words there.

    Saying anything else will have the same effect as Merkel’s comments a few years ago, and lead to a mass exodus across Europe. The UK will be taking thousands of refugees from Afghanistan, but we have to do everything we can to stop the Channel boat crossings, which are costing lives and enabling smugglers.
    There is a little bit of a difference. North Africa is just a boat ride away from Europe. You could hop on a trawler at any number of small ports and beaches, and the same day (admittedly a long day), you could wash up on a Greek, Cypriot or Maltese beach.

    Kabul, by contrast, is a 7,500 kilometre trek from the UK. And it requires either crossing the entire lengths of Iran and Turkey, or going through Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Russia... or heading South through Iraq, Jordan and Israel to get to North Africa. The distance scales aren't really comparable.

    This doesn't mean Ms Patel is wrong, it's just that the scale is somewhat difference:

    North Africa is 400 million people a short boat ride from Europe
    Afghanistan is 38 million people a long, long, long walk from Europe
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Aslan said:

    The idea of anchoring on a number of refugees just show how barmy the debate is. Surely what is relevant is the rules for being able to come here or not. Translators for Western troops, translators' parents and siblings, Afghan national soldiers, people fleeing autocratic rule, university lecturers etc. That is a sensible debate to have.
    An upper limit may make sense, were it possible to settle on a clear number that was 'too much' for a nation to handle, but given the issue of how many are usually political, and there are many non-Afghans to consider, that probably is not possible. However, a competition on nations to come up with bigger numbers to look good will at least mean more are able to come.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,855
    edited August 2021
    kle4 said:

    Rough numbers, what the heck is wrong with the chap?

    I'm going to take a stab and guess that 'keiner davon' means 'don't know' and not that it is the leader of the grey party.
    More like "none of the above".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021

    Absolutely terrible ratings for Laschet as preferred Chancellor.

    image

    Blatantly obvious they should have gone with the CSU's Soder, Soder had 40% backing him as preferred Chancellor to 23% for Baerbock and 16% for Scholz back in April.

    However I still expect a Union-SPD-FDP coalition after September and the Union to scrape home with most seats despite losses
    https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Soeder-liegt-gegen-Laschet-haushoch-vorne-article22461779.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    Selebian said:

    It would be, if the denialists had any interest in evidence.

    The alternative 'theories' for how we all came to be can equally be applied to Covid variants, I guess.
    I once read a conversation with a conspiracy theorist who 'believed' that the Argentinians had sunk a British aircraft carrier in the war. Every time a bit of evidence was produced, he would either deny it, or work around it. Eventually he ended up with the US building an Invincible-class carrier to replace the one sunk. And nobody noticed ...

    Sometimes it is pointless to argue with them. Better just to point and laugh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021
    Aslan said:

    This is why it is ridiculous to spend Western blood and cash on these tin pot nations.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KawoonKhamoosh/status/1427907632040398849

    Or just put a warlord in charge not a leftie intellectual like Ghani who is not a war leader and happy to put his leftwing principles to one side if there are millions of dollars on offer
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    I reckon Scholz is popular because he shares his first name with a character in Frozen.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    HYUFD said:

    Blatantly obvious they should have gone with the CSU's Soder, Soder had 40% backing him as preferred Chancellor to 23% for Baerbock and 16% for Scholz back in April.

    However I still expect a Union-SPD-FDP coalition after September and the Union to scrape home with most seats despite losses
    https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Soeder-liegt-gegen-Laschet-haushoch-vorne-article22461779.html
    It's going to be mighty close, given that the latest polling has the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens within just a few percent of each other.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK cases by specimen date

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    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK deaths

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon Scholz is popular because he shares his first name with a character in Frozen.

    Imagine how popular Johnson might be if he hadn't shared a forename with Yeltsin?

    What first name from a fictional character do we think would be most popular for a future Prime Minister?

    Is James too obvious?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    rcs1000 said:

    It's going to be mighty close, given that the latest polling has the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens within just a few percent of each other.

    Yes but none of those 3 want to work with the AfD or Linke, they would rather work with themselves than them.

    So it is mainly a question of whether it is the FDP or the Greens who join another grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD to give it a majority.

    The FDP are unlikely to want to work with the Greens, certainly if the CDU/CSU still have more seats than the SPD so an SPD-Greens-FDP group is unlikely in my view
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    MaxPB said:

    Not surprised. The guy is an idiot and in the back pocket of Germany's worst polluters. It's shocking that a nation as advanced as Germany is still burning surface lignite to keep the lights on.
    While that's true, Germany's CO2 emissions from power gen are finally in retreat:


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    UK R

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    Johnny Mercer going for the jugular on government support for veterans.

    There will be plenty of hot air from a large selection of windbags but it will soon blow over and they will beback to troughing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Age related data

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but none of those 3 want to work with the AfD or Linke, they would rather work with themselves than them.

    So it is mainly a question of whether it is the FDP or the Greens who join another grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD to give it a majority.

    The FDP are unlikely to want to work with the Greens, certainly if the CDU/CSU still have more seats than the SPD so an SPD-Greens-FDP group is unlikely in my view
    Linke and the SPD have been in formal coalitions in state governments for a couple of years now, so I'm not sure the old "no-one will work with the former Communists" line is as true as it was.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    More seriously, Scotland’s deficit


    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    sorry, as I was saying, re the GERS report, what it fundamentally reveals is that the

    HHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAU3UR0W8R8EE PFFFFFF HAHAHA
  • Pulpstar said:

    The Tajiks of the Panshjr valley will be fighting the Pashtun Taliban for some time I think. We're best staying out of it*

    *Doubtless the CIA will be in there somewhere...
    "When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains, and the women come out to cut up what remains, jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains and go to your gawd like a soldier." - Kipling.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rcs1000 said:



    Kabul, by contrast, is a 7,500 kilometre trek from the UK. And it requires either ... or heading South through Iraq, Jordan and Israel to get to North Africa.

    I wholly agree with the substance of what you are saying, but for almost everywhere in Afghanistan, south is Pakistan.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    ‘Scotland’s soaring deficit is no barrier to independence, says minister’


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soaring-deficit-is-no-barrier-to-independence-says-minister?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    “My total loss of life in my recent car crash is no barrier to my bid for Olympic boxing gold, says mouldering corpse in tomb during imaginary conversation with bereaved wife”
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    HYUFD said:

    Or just put a warlord in charge not a leftie intellectual like Ghani who is not a war leader and happy to put his leftwing principles to one side if there are millions of dollars on offer
    You and your warlords.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    “Scotland’s soaring 24% deficit will be covered by recently fled ex Afghan president, says SNP Finance Minister during 18 hour long Ketamine binge”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Linke and the SPD have been in formal coalitions in state governments for a couple of years now, so I'm not sure the old "no-one will work with the former Communists" line is as true as it was.
    Given even SPD-Greens -Linke combined only comes to around 40% compared to about 45% for Union-FDP-AfD combined it is not a viable option anyway and none of the latter 3 will work with Linke. No party at all it seems will work with the AfD so that effectively rules them out
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    Leon said:

    “Scotland’s soaring 24% deficit will be covered by recently fled ex Afghan president, says SNP Finance Minister during 18 hour long Ketamine binge”

    Come on Leon, those stats are compiled by the Scottish Government. We know how much unionist propaganda they spew out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    Leon said:

    More seriously, Scotland’s deficit


    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    sorry, as I was saying, re the GERS report, what it fundamentally reveals is that the

    HHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAU3UR0W8R8EE PFFFFFF HAHAHA

    It's all the fault of the evil English, you know. They've put down the Scots for too long, caused all of Scotland's ills. They made the Scots profit from the slave trade, made them imperialists. They ruined the shipbuilding industry. Every other country: Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, Germany - has learnt from their mistakes. But not England. Oh no.

    (/Dickson mode)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited August 2021
    Something that makes it indisputably clear how far the Afghan conflict has been a proxy cultural and military conflict in the local region, is the distribution of social media posts. By far the lion's share of posts on twitter, and seemingly on Facebook too, are from India and Pakistan. Indians apparently almost uniformly take the horrified view of American and western conservatives, while posters from Pakistan seem to almost universally describe the events in terms of a 'great welcome and peaceful transition' from a lickspittle government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    You and your warlords.
    It is the warlords on the Tajik border still leading resistance to the Taliban long after Ghani and the Afghan army fled
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    ‘Scotland’s soaring deficit is no barrier to independence, says minister’


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soaring-deficit-is-no-barrier-to-independence-says-minister?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    “My total loss of life in my recent car crash is no barrier to my bid for Olympic boxing gold, says mouldering corpse in tomb during imaginary conversation with bereaved wife”

    I suppose technically nothing is a barrier to independence, just to the comfortableness of that independence.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    HYUFD said:

    Or just put a warlord in charge not a leftie intellectual like Ghani who is not a war leader and happy to put his leftwing principles to one side if there are millions of dollars on offer
    Because American backed warlords in the developing world are famously non-corrupt.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    It's all the fault of the evil English, you know. They've put down the Scots for too long, caused all of Scotland's ills. They made the Scots profit from the slave trade, made them imperialists. They ruined the shipbuilding industry. Every other country: Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, Germany - has learnt from their mistakes. But not England. Oh no.

    (/Dickson mode)
    At some point Sturgeon is gonna have to turn around and say Uh, sorry guys, no Indy, not for quite a while, it’s just impossible

    In the face of these astonishing figures, what else can a sane politician do?

    But what happens then? Is that the end of her?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    HYUFD said:

    Given even SPD-Greens -Linke combined only comes to around 40% compared to about 45% for Union-FDP-AfD combined it is not a viable option anyway and none of the latter 3 will work with Linke. No party at all it seems will work with the AfD so that effectively rules them out


    That poll may, of course, be completely wrong.

    But it might also be right. In which case, why would the SPD choose to be junior partner to an unpopular CDU Chancellor?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202

    It's all the fault of the evil English, you know. They've put down the Scots for too long, caused all of Scotland's ills. They made the Scots profit from the slave trade, made them imperialists. They ruined the shipbuilding industry. Every other country: Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, Germany - has learnt from their mistakes. But not England. Oh no.

    (/Dickson mode)
    Having consulted Twitter, it seems that the GERS figures are just a plot so that Scotland's wealth can be drained by England.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Aslan said:

    The idea of anchoring on a number of refugees just show how barmy the debate is. Surely what is relevant is the rules for being able to come here or not. Translators for Western troops, translators' parents and siblings, Afghan national soldiers, people fleeing autocratic rule, university lecturers etc. That is a sensible debate to have.
    Surely 'people fleeing autocratic rule' covers pretty much everyone? And why the separate category for university lecturers?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    kle4 said:

    I suppose technically nothing is a barrier to independence, just to the comfortableness of that independence.
    True. ‘Look, ok, we will be eating moss and small pieces of dung for ten years but we can do it. We can go Indy. The big pieces of dung will be sold to Ireland, obvs’
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    It's all the fault of the evil English, you know. They've put down the Scots for too long, caused all of Scotland's ills. They made the Scots profit from the slave trade, made them imperialists. They ruined the shipbuilding industry. Every other country: Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, Germany - has learnt from their mistakes. But not England. Oh no.

    (/Dickson mode)
    I’ve just been to the Acropolis Museum where they constantly repeat the historical point that the SCOTTISH Lord Elgin, ambassador for the UK, looted all those marbles

    I can only presume the poor Lord did it at gun point, forced by redcoats to go against his every instinct as a true Scotsman
  • Leon said:

    I’ve just been to the Acropolis Museum where they constantly repeat the historical point that the SCOTTISH Lord Elgin, ambassador for the UK, looted all those marbles

    I can only presume the poor Lord did it at gun point, forced by redcoats to go against his every instinct as a true Scotsman
    Have you been to the restaurant ? I had a great meal there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021
    rcs1000 said:



    That poll may, of course, be completely wrong.

    But it might also be right. In which case, why would the SPD choose to be junior partner to an unpopular CDU Chancellor?
    Even on that poll SPD + Greens + Linke only comes to 46%. Union + FDP + AfD comes to 45% so neck and neck and would be an extremely unstable SPD + Greens + Linke government with the Union still with most seats.

    A Union + SPD + FDP government however would come to 56% combined and a Union + SPD + Greens government would come to 54% combined. Both those coalitions would have a comfortable majority in the Bundestag and be far more stable.

    If the SPD does a deal with Linke, previously untouchable the likelihood is the Union would shift to the right in opposition, dump Laschet for Soder and look to do a deal with the AfD in response which Soder has not ruled out as strictly as Merkel and Laschet have. Don't forget the FDP has also accepted AfD support in Berlin already.

    German politics would thus move from centrist consensus to polarisation between left and right
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Leon said:

    I’ve just been to the Acropolis Museum where they constantly repeat the historical point that the SCOTTISH Lord Elgin, ambassador for the UK, looted all those marbles

    I can only presume the poor Lord did it at gun point, forced by redcoats to go against his every instinct as a true Scotsman
    It's much worse than that. The information board says:

    The most severe damage to the monument was caused in 1801-1802, when the Scotch ambassador of England to Constantinople Thomas Bruce, 7th Earl of Elgin, removed the greatest part of the sculptures that also comprised structural members of the temple.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Leon said:

    At some point Sturgeon is gonna have to turn around and say Uh, sorry guys, no Indy, not for quite a while, it’s just impossible

    In the face of these astonishing figures, what else can a sane politician do?

    But what happens then? Is that the end of her?
    Petulant rising wail

    'None of the prolapse inducing, POTUS destroying mayhem I predicted for Afghanistan has come to pass and I'm so BOOOORED'
    Leon said:


    I am willing to do my bit for the cause, and refrain from any remarks relating to Scottish independence until Christmas Day 2021

    I expect you to do the same, though unfortunately this will reduce your already weary output to one or two sad little comments about your past life as a milliner, but we must all make sacrifices

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Leon said:

    True. ‘Look, ok, we will be eating moss and small pieces of dung for ten years but we can do it. We can go Indy. The big pieces of dung will be sold to Ireland, obvs’
    But Scotland will always have a deficit as long as RUK continues to send them more money than they make. There is no disincentive not to run up a massive deficit, because it will be covered by RUK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    tlg86 said:

    It's much worse than that. The information board says:

    The most severe damage to the monument was caused in 1801-1802, when the Scotch ambassador of England to Constantinople Thomas Bruce, 7th Earl of Elgin, removed the greatest part of the sculptures that also comprised structural members of the temple.
    Indeed. Scotch! lol
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    This Is Not the Taliban 2.0
    The group’s claims of having changed are probably more reassuring to those unfamiliar with its history.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/dont-trust-taliban/619790/
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited August 2021
    The Greeks get on with the Scotch, on the whole.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Have you been to the restaurant ? I had a great meal there.
    Had lunch there today! Fabulous food. Going back again
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,923



    Without large external armed forces permanently in Afghanistan then this was always going to happen. Anyone who "rules" Afghanistan will either be corrupt or madly religious. It will never ever be a place with a decent settled Government operating for the benefit of the population.

    Not a serious suggestion, but what if the United States had simply annexed the country and turned it into a territory of the US?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Aslan said:

    Because American backed warlords in the developing world are famously non-corrupt.
    Still better than the Taliban and Al Qaeda and jihadi militants returning and Ghani was obviously corrupt anyway, just weak too
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    The brave people of Britain voted for freedom from dominion by the evil EU, regardless of the costs in lost exports - https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0816/1241101-exports-and-imports-increased-in-june-cso/ - seems a bit odd to think that the Scottish couldn't be persuaded to vote for independence from England on a similar basis.

    And, to be honest, I don't think I'd vote for independence even if a fancy economist demonstrated it would increase prosperity. Some things are more important than money.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited August 2021
    Leon said:

    Had lunch there today! Fabulous food. Going back again
    It's making me hungry just thinking about it again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    The brave people of Britain voted for freedom from dominion by the evil EU, regardless of the costs in lost exports - https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0816/1241101-exports-and-imports-increased-in-june-cso/ - seems a bit odd to think that the Scottish couldn't be persuaded to vote for independence from England on a similar basis.

    And, to be honest, I don't think I'd vote for independence even if a fancy economist demonstrated it would increase prosperity. Some things are more important than money.

    By just 52% to 48% and less than half of UK exports go to the EU, well over half of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK.

    55% of Scots already voted against independence in 2014 for that reason
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Leon said:

    True. ‘Look, ok, we will be eating moss and small pieces of dung for ten years but we can do it. We can go Indy. The big pieces of dung will be sold to Ireland, obvs’
    Although you don't want Sindy to happen - since you value the Union almost more than words can say - you have enormous empathy for its core argument of Sovereignty. This being what made you vote Leave despite having real reservations on the economics.

    You hide the empathy well though. Only the very astute can detect it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Having consulted Twitter, it seems that the GERS figures are just a plot so that Scotland's wealth can be drained by England.
    It's obvious innit?

    I mean, GERS is even named after the pro-UK, Unionist RanGERS football club!

    How can people be so blind?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Cookie said:

    But Scotland will always have a deficit as long as RUK continues to send them more money than they make. There is no disincentive not to run up a massive deficit, because it will be covered by RUK.
    There is quite a disincentive if you simultaneously wish to make a sound fiscal case for Scottish independence. These deficit stats are hallucinatory in their awfulness. The UK is bad enough, but we have our own bank and currency and a credit history several centuries long

    Indy Scotland would be like ‘Indy Cambodia’ in 1975, or ‘Indy Venezuela’ last week
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Not a serious suggestion, but what if the United States had simply annexed the country and turned it into a territory of the US?

    Indeed. It worked so well for France in Algeria
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Leon said:

    There is quite a disincentive if you simultaneously wish to make a sound fiscal case for Scottish independence. These deficit stats are hallucinatory in their awfulness. The UK is bad enough, but we have our own bank and currency and a credit history several centuries long

    Indy Scotland would be like ‘Indy Cambodia’ in 1975, or ‘Indy Venezuela’ last week
    As supportive as I am of any argument bolstering the case for the UK I have a hard time imagining any outcome quite so bad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    HYUFD said:

    Even on that poll SPD + Greens + Linke only comes to 46%. Union + FDP + AfD comes to 45% so neck and neck and would be an extremely unstable SPD + Greens + Linke government with the Union still with most seats.

    A Union + SPD + FDP government however would come to 56% combined and a Union + SPD + Greens government would come to 54% combined. Both those coalitions would have a comfortable majority in the Bundestag and be far more stable.

    If the SPD does a deal with Linke, previously untouchable the likelihood is the Union would shift to the right in opposition, dump Laschet for Soder and look to do a deal with the AfD in response which Soder has not ruled out as strictly as Merkel and Laschet have. Don't forget the FDP has also accepted AfD support in Berlin already.

    German politics would thus move from centrist consensus to polarisation between left and right
    Eh?

    So, in the circumstance I've outlined, the CDU/CSU will enter into a coalition with AfD, even though that doen't get them to a majority in the Bundestag.

    Why would they do that? What possible purpose does an opposition coalition serve?

    Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Leon said:

    Indeed. Scotch! lol
    And also 'of England'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Not a serious suggestion, but what if the United States had simply annexed the country and turned it into a territory of the US?

    Can't get away with that thesedays. Indeed, conquest would be a lot easier if we adopted attitudes of the past about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    kle4 said:

    As supportive as I am of any argument bolstering the case for the UK I have a hard time imagining any outcome quite so bad.
    Insert hyperbole emoji

    It wouldn’t be Venezuela. But fuck. It would be BAD
  • Something that makes it indisputably clear how far the Afghan conflict has been a proxy cultural and military conflict in the local region, is the distribution of social media posts. By far the lion's share of posts on twitter, and seemingly on Facebook too, are from India and Pakistan. Indians apparently almost uniformly take the horrified view of American and western conservatives, while posters from Pakistan seem to almost universally describe the events in terms of a 'great welcome and peaceful transition' from a lickspittle government.

    "Taliban have broken ‘the shackles of slavery,’ says Pakistan PM Imran Khan"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/taliban-pakistan-imran-khan-afghanistan-b1903821.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Scottish Government’s 2021 GERS figures show Scotland’s 8.1% of the UK population:

    - generates 7.9% of UK revenues

    - receives 9.1% of UK public sector spending

    now marvel as Scottish separatists try to spin this as somehow a bad deal …


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1428033492571631622?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    It's making me hungry just thinking about it again.
    It’s one of the most interesting menus I’ve encountered in many months. Genuinely innovative and delicious and not that pricey

    I haven’t had a bad meal in 8 days in Athens. OK I’ve had a lot of Greek salads but a Greek salad done well is a noble thing
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Leon said:

    There is quite a disincentive if you simultaneously wish to make a sound fiscal case for Scottish independence. These deficit stats are hallucinatory in their awfulness. The UK is bad enough, but we have our own bank and currency and a credit history several centuries long

    Indy Scotland would be like ‘Indy Cambodia’ in 1975, or ‘Indy Venezuela’ last week
    Well 1) many Scots simply don't believe these figures (see malcolmg), so they don't provide much of a disincentive to vote Yes, but more importantly 2) A newly independent Scotland would presumably simply start living within its means. Scotland spends more than RUK per head because it can - we give it that money - not because it has to. There'll be a big hit to public spending - it'll be a shock to the subsidy junkies - but it would be able to function. (Assuming there's someone prepared to take on the challenge, of course!) Oh, and 3) it doesn't really matter - these are all problems to be faced *after* independence. The point of the SNP is presumably to get to independence - once there, mission accomplished: the future is somebody else's challenge, surely?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited August 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Eh?

    So, in the circumstance I've outlined, the CDU/CSU will enter into a coalition with AfD, even though that doen't get them to a majority in the Bundestag.

    Why would they do that? What possible purpose does an opposition coalition serve?

    Here's my prediction: if SPD + Green + Linke exceeds 50% of the seats in the Bundestag (which is perhaps a one-in-three shot), then Laschet will not be Chancellor. There is simply no mileage in the SPD propping up an extremely unpopular CDU leader.
    No, I said if SPD did a deal with the Stalinist Linke as well as their traditional coalition allies the Greens to get into government then inevitably the CDU/CSU would move right in opposition to consider a deal with the populist right AfD in response if that was what was needed to get them into government at the election after. The Union's traditional allies the FDP have already done a deal with the AfD in Berlin as I said.


    It does I agree mean Laschet having failed to become Chancellor would also be dumped in opposition by the Union for a more rightwing leader like Soder or Merz
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited August 2021
    Interesting line up description on QT, given usual party labels, but I suppose they'd no other option

    James Cleverly - Conservative
    Lisa Nandy - Labour
    Rory Stewart - Former minister
    Nelufar Hedayat - Journalist
    Mehdi Hasan - Broadcaster


    I also wonder if broadcaster outranks journalist or vice versa.
This discussion has been closed.