Our first taste of a packed House of Commons for 17 months – politicalbetting.com
Our first taste of a packed House of Commons for 17 months – politicalbetting.com
This morning’s emergency debate on Afghanistan is the first time that we have seen a largely packed House of Commons since the first lockdown came into force in March last year and it has been a big reminder of how abnormal politics has been.
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What would the vote be on
Meanwhile Biden's approval rating has plunged to just 46%
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-approval-drops-lowest-level-this-year-after-taliban-takeover-2021-08-17/
More to the point if it's true then are we as a nation looking to triple/quadruple the defence budget? I doubt it.
It is a fiction. We are trying to make ourselves feel better.
There are several to blame.
1. The politicians at the time (2006) who wanted to go in.
2. The Generals who agreed and set out a wholly unrealistic plan - under-resourced and under-equipped.
The only group that comes out well is the soldiers, sailors and (I suppose !!!) airmen whose stubborn courage and commitment did much to mask the shocking decisions at the theatre and strategic level.
For most of the campaign and in the hotspot outposts we were just a self-licking lollipop.
Of course interested to hear @Dura's view.
https://twitter.com/colinphoenix/status/1427939545161601026?s=21
The question we need to ask ourselves is do we head in with them in the first place next time they fancy another foreign adventure, not whether or not we come out when they do - it'd be the geopolitics of the madhouse to not follow them out when they leave anywhere.
Should we follow Russia in on their Syrian sojourn, or the French and Germans into - well that issue never really arises...
There was a real sense of the House v HMG.
Exactly
As Russia showed in the early 80's you cannot win a war in Afghanistan, you can have 100,000s of troops there keeping a form of peace but.that cannot be a long term solution. I have seen much criticism everywhere of the withdrawal but no ideas for a decent future for Afghanistan.
The lack of defence against the Taliban from a well funded and resourced Afghan Army just showed that there heart was not in it.
For the government it knows this is a catastrophe, and taking the hits in the chamber is the least it can do.
Jeez.
There can be a vote. The @HouseofCommons cannot amend this motion to commit to something but MPs can force a division (vote) to demonstrate whether or not the govt has the support of the House. MPs who feel like @Tobias_Ellwood could then express their view. Lets see at 5pm...
And yet the forces would not be happy. They were very glad to see it go. Not worth training someone if he or she is going to sod off in 2 years after entry (3 years for RN I think it was, but I may be wrong).
Edit: I do know (?) you are being ironic - but it is worth considering all the same in the current discussion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13473534.amp
Not seen Blair on TV recently.
After that, the UK could have done what France did and organise evacuation from July, not scrambling to do it now.
So far as the Conservative Party is concerned this episode has destroyed any lingering hopes that Raab may have had of reaching the top of the greasy pole and reduced any slack that members may have been prepared to grant Boris in the future. Antagonising traditional Tory supporters who have a lot of respect for people like Tugendhat and Mercer is not a good look.
Sunak 2/1
Gove 8/1
Hunt 16/1
Javid 16/1
Raab 16/1
Patel 20/1
Dowden 33/1
Truss 33/1
Tugendhat 33/1
Mordaunt 35/1
55 bar
If there was an EU army (ha!), would it want to fight in Afghanistan, and would it be effective? I'm guessing not.
https://twitter.com/RuthFox01/status/1427945817759957001?s=20
Tweet from: Director of @HansardSociety
There’s a lot of criticism of Parliament’s #Afghanistan debate recall - of the too little, too late, what’s the point variety. But a lot of this criticism fails to reflect Parliament's purpose and range of functions.....
Today the reputation of politicians is rarely built solely on the basis of their command of the @UKHouseofCommons chamber. But perform badly - fail to rise to the occasion - and reputations can be badly damaged.
The debate is an opportunity for MPs - and the wider public here and internationally - to get some clarity - or not - about the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, about the UK govt's response to the humanitarian situation, and for refugee asylum plans.....
Our model is far from perfect but because of this recall the Prime Minister has to come before MPs and account for his govt’s policy. I haven't seen much evidence of other parliament’s in coalition nations involved in Afghanistan holding their govt's to account this week.
https://twitter.com/RuthFox01/status/1427928965570777090?s=20
https://youtu.be/ABhZQ_VRbsQ
Veterans support? The government could and should do a shit lot more.
But why is the debate now and not months/years ago?
What a cluster ...
"US troops turned away Dutch embassy workers and translators despite being cleared for evacuation and having an aircraft waiting for them on the tarmac
"It's awful. Many were there at the gates of the airport with their families," Sigrid Kaag, the Dutch foreign minister, told the Dutch news agency ANP.
The Netherlands aims to get up to 1,000 local embassy workers, translators and their families out of the country.
Kaag said U.S. armed forces securing the airport did not allow any Afghans to enter the gates even if they had the right credentials.
The military aircraft, which was operated by the Dutch together with other northern European countries and was only on the runway for about half an hour, left Kabul without any people destined for the Netherlands. "
But the disadvantage is the disproportionate impact on the poor and non-criminal of society (the powerful can evade, or get cushy numbers, and the criminals get rejected).
The only time you might need conscription is if you are at war with an enemy with a huge number of troops itself eg in WW2 when we needed it to fight Nazi Germany or if we ever went to war with Russia or China which is unlikely
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9904031/Afghanistan-evacuation-Chaos-Kabul-airport-women-beg-troops-help.htmlhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9904067/Life-moderate-Taliban-Fighters-tar-car-thief-tie-truck.html
I know a few comrades who saw plenty of contact at Tarin Kowt and Helmand. My impression from them was that it was a slow motion Basra with unreliable allies in the local forces, where the objectives became diffuse and taking casualties was a severely career limiting move for any CO. There were the usual issues that are endemic to any lengthy overseas deployment of British forces of inadequate equipment, etc. There simply was no strategy beyond being there even though there was little to be achieved because withdrawal, as we have seen, is politically difficult.
Yesterday somebody asked me if I were (subjunctive mood, statement contrary to fact) bitter about my involvement given the tragic outcome. I had to answer frankly that I was not. At the time, although I did not realise it, I was I at my mental and physical peak as an aviator. I was surrounded by a formidable team of warriors on the USN VF squadron with which I was exchanged and the whole experience was just incredible.
If the USA is unable to work multilaterally, then that signals the end of the golden period for USA dominance. It cannot act unilaterally without consequence any longer.
With financial genius like this you'd have thought they'd be falling over themselves to gain a foothold.
NEW: Kate Forbes says the record £36bn deficit is "not an obstacle" to independence.
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1427954463562772485?s=20
Kate Forbes: record deficits 'strengthens' case for independence
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1427955563044954115?s=20
If you are a government whip are you now trying to get one of the new pliant MPs to stand up and say some vacuous shit in favour of Raab doing bugger all from his beach towel until it was too late?
For me, the interesting thing is how long Nicola hangs on, and how resilient the SNP vote will be after she departs.
https://order-order.com/2021/08/18/tugendhat-applauded-for-emotional-speech-on-afghanistan/
One of the positive things being advocated by Brexiteers is the proposed CANZUK group. It will do sod all to replace trade lost locally, but strategically it could be an alternative to an America-led world where America first really means shitkickers first and try to stop half of America from voting.
My time ended a while before yours and was not kinetic a la Iraq and Afghan. But absolutely - people join HMF not just to ski/mountaineer/play rugby. They join to soldier and to do what you are paid to do. I loved my time whether in Cancun on a break from Belize or patrolling over the cuds in Co Fermanagh, etc, when it was quite busy in the Six Counties.
That said the govt does need to help those who have been badly affected whether physically or mentally, and "The Generals" (some friends) were nearly criminally culpable for their use it or lose it glory land grab when the politicians asked.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9901167/British-student-21-shares-video-aboard-RAF-military-plane.html
Keep people cooped up for months on end and when they are let out they go a bit bonkers.
https://twitter.com/yorkshirepost/status/1427958097432219656?s=20