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How Starmer could become PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,643
edited August 2021 in General
imageHow Starmer could become PM – politicalbetting.com

One of the things we sometimes ignore when a new poll comes out is how the party shares compare with the last general election and from that we can compute “swing”.

Read the full story here

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  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Second like Starmer.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,480
    edited August 2021
    I am of the opinion that anything could happen in GE 24 but in the same poll the Johnson v Starmer scores show Starmer along way behind on the important issues

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427319404895916033?s=19
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited August 2021
    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,748
    edited August 2021
    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Boris has hardly done himself any favours with the way he has dealt with Northern Ireland on Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,539
    Taliban playing bumper cars, I think it is the most surreal image we can see of the conflict in #Afghanistan and the fall of #Kabul
    https://twitter.com/EsteveGirbes01/status/1427380079429144583
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,430
    My belief remains that Boris will not run again if there is a risk of defeat, so Starmer will not be the next Prime Minister – whichever Conservative minister replaces Boris will.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    Carnyx said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Test

    OldKingCole said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Z, aye, I forgot the copyright stuff probably meant there'd be a free version somewhere. Still, 72p isn't the end of the world.

    King Cole, it's one of the things I find fascinating, just how basic items being made easily has utterly transformed the world. Videos on rope-making and books like Jeffrey L. Singman's The Middle Ages (Everyday Life) highlight an unspoken but enormous gulf between modern times and the distant past. Things just cost a fortune. The average person in the 13th century, say, only had two full sets of clothes. But labour was incredibly cheap.

    It does make me smile, remembering of the Milibandit youth tweeting from his iPad about his poverty.

    I read somewhere that up until about 1935 or so your average 14thC British peasant could have been fast forwarded to the 20thC and been able to work on a farm, since many, if not most of the implements used to have been familiar. Threshing machines would have been the only exceptions.

    Interestingly it was about then that my farmer grandfather was, apparently, persuaded to buy his first tractor.
    Even in the 70s and 80s when I was growing up on a farm there were a lot of jobs that would have been the same, except the pitchforks had metal tines rather than wood. I’m not sure that there was a huge difference between the educational standards of a 14th century peasant and those of some of the people in the town I grew up in either…
    The differences, I take it, would have been especially in animal breeds and plant cultivars, and the use of imported fertiliser rather than home grown middens?
    The plough shapes would have been a revelation to the medievals.....
    And steel rather than wood (and a bit of iron) for the business end, I presume, and Clydesdales or shires rather than oxen. But the basic point is there - the work would have been essentially the same.
    The shapes were much more efficient - the medieval plough were massively limited by the load they put on the animals pulling them. The more modern designs gave deeper *and* easier ploughing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    edited August 2021
    Minutes from Cobra

    The 15.30 entry has several spelling errors should read comin days, shittin, dehumanisin,
    g's were added in error

    https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1427168880057888774/photo/1
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Unimpressed by Biden. Unimpressed by Starmer.

    Since we appear to be reliving the worst bits of the 1970's, worth noting that Fred Emery's very good 5-part documentary on Watergate is on iPlayer. Well worth watching.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    - “… it is hard to see the Tories holding onto their GE2019 vote share north of the border based on Redfield’s SNP GB vote share of 5% compared with the 4% at GE2019. My guess is that half the current SCON seat total of 6 would be at risk if the election went according to this poll.”

    Yes Mike, that looks about right. If you pump the R&W figures into Baxter you get:

    SNP 55 seats (+7)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLab 1 seat (nc)
    SLD 0 seats (-4)

    However, that is hardly news. No, the most important Redfield finding was in fact this:

    - “Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, who do you think best embodies the following characteristics:”

    Is in good physical and mental health
    Starmer 37%
    Johnson 27%
    DK 36%
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,693
    I hope PM Starmer will appoint Matt Western MP as Minister for Nimbyism. There's an overwhelming democratic mandate to keep Coventry's huddled masses out of Leamington:

    https://leamingtonobserver.co.uk/news/appeal-win-is-dark-day-for-democracy-says-warwick-and-leamington-mp/
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    We must discuss tactical voting, which we have now seen in two by-elections
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,999
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    Doubt he'll beat Corbyn's 2017 performance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,480
    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    My belief remains that Boris will not run again if there is a risk of defeat, so Starmer will not be the next Prime Minister – whichever Conservative minister replaces Boris will.

    That’s my thinking too. The Tories will swap him out, or he’ll stand down himself, if an election defeat looks likely.

    The fascinating (!) thing would be what happens if we get a very hung Parliament, with the Tories on 300-ish seats. The sensible thing for Starmer to do in that position, is to keep the Tories in power, rather than be in hock to minor and nationalist parties in power, when a second election will follow quickly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,027
    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,166
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    The 7-day lockdown extends to the Coromandel peninsula where they know the individual went on Aug 13 and 14. The authorities are three days behind and face a big task trying to trace all the possible contacts.

    At least in NZ it's a possibility.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,120
    StuartDickson said:

    - “… it is hard to see the Tories holding onto their GE2019 vote share north of the border based on Redfield’s SNP GB vote share of 5% compared with the 4% at GE2019. My guess is that half the current SCON seat total of 6 would be at risk if the election went according to this poll.”

    Yes Mike, that looks about right. If you pump the R&W figures into Baxter you get:

    SNP 55 seats (+7)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLab 1 seat (nc)
    SLD 0 seats (-4)

    However, that is hardly news. No, the most important Redfield finding was in fact this:

    - “Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, who do you think best embodies the following characteristics:”

    Is in good physical and mental health
    Starmer 37%
    Johnson 27%
    DK 36%

    Worth noting that 3 of the 4 LibDem seats in Scotland are safe as houses: Orkney & Shetland, NE Fife and Edinburgh W. And they held the equivalent seats at Holyrood in May very comfortably.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,027
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    What are they going to do when they finally have to open their borders and they get plenty of cases?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,480
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    What are they going to do when they finally have to open their borders and they get plenty of cases?
    Apparently only when they have fully vaccinated the population

    If you are a Kiwi abroad wanting to return home you cannot do so before February 22
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,120
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    Agree with the latter point. It will all depend on whether, if the political situation deteriorates, the Tories are ruthless enough to remove Boris and replace with Rishi. Sunak is their Get Out of Jail Card and would surely be a very strong favourite to beat Starmer given their respective polling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,027
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    What are they going to do when they finally have to open their borders and they get plenty of cases?
    Apparently only when they have fully vaccinated the population

    If you are a Kiwi abroad wanting to return home you cannot do so before February 22
    The thing is even if / when fully vaxxed, they are still going to get plenty of cases. It will be interesting if they can move past it or they will continue to shut everything down.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Bland, but not causing offence, doesn't win anything.

    There are plenty of social democratic policies that he could advocate out there. He needs to pick up a bundle of them.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,120
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    Stuart, I have a sense that urban and rural Scotland are slowly drifting apart so far as politics are concerned. It's why I think the ScotTories may do better in actual seat returns than the bare figures indicate. The council elections next year will be very interesting in indicating regional trends.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Bland, but not causing offence, doesn't win anything.

    There are plenty of social democratic policies that he could advocate out there. He needs to pick up a bundle of them.
    It worked for Biden
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,523
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    What Starmer has done so far is a long way from sufficient.

    But getting to a position where swing voters aren't going out of their way to vote against him (which definitely happened to Corbyn in 2019) is a necessary first step.

    Critically, it's given him permission to be heard; whether he can use that space well remains to be seen.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Burgessian said:

    StuartDickson said:

    - “… it is hard to see the Tories holding onto their GE2019 vote share north of the border based on Redfield’s SNP GB vote share of 5% compared with the 4% at GE2019. My guess is that half the current SCON seat total of 6 would be at risk if the election went according to this poll.”

    Yes Mike, that looks about right. If you pump the R&W figures into Baxter you get:

    SNP 55 seats (+7)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLab 1 seat (nc)
    SLD 0 seats (-4)

    However, that is hardly news. No, the most important Redfield finding was in fact this:

    - “Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, who do you think best embodies the following characteristics:”

    Is in good physical and mental health
    Starmer 37%
    Johnson 27%
    DK 36%

    Worth noting that 3 of the 4 LibDem seats in Scotland are safe as houses: Orkney & Shetland, NE Fife and Edinburgh W. And they held the equivalent seats at Holyrood in May very comfortably.
    “Safe as houses”?

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    SLD seats have generally been considered safe when they have good, competent, hard-working, popular constituency MPs. None of those seats have that. And in one the MP is a horror show.

    However, more worrying for those 3 SLD MPs is tactical unwind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    What are they going to do when they finally have to open their borders and they get plenty of cases?
    Apparently only when they have fully vaccinated the population

    If you are a Kiwi abroad wanting to return home you cannot do so before February 22
    The thing is even if / when fully vaxxed, they are still going to get plenty of cases. It will be interesting if they can move past it or they will continue to shut everything down.
    See Iceland, for a country with some similarities.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,480
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    What are they going to do when they finally have to open their borders and they get plenty of cases?
    Apparently only when they have fully vaccinated the population

    If you are a Kiwi abroad wanting to return home you cannot do so before February 22
    The thing is even if / when fully vaxxed, they are still going to get plenty of cases. It will be interesting if they can move past it or they will continue to shut everything down.
    I am very pleased that my eldest son left NZ in 2015 and is now in Canada, as our chances of seeing each other or my wife and I visiting NZ in the foreseeable future is nil
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    SKS will never get anywhere near that IMO or as close as Corbyn was to being PM in GE 2017 (see Forde report for why we didnt get PM Jezza)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,430
    edited August 2021
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Bland, but not causing offence, doesn't win anything.

    There are plenty of social democratic policies that he could advocate out there. He needs to pick up a bundle of them.
    It worked for Biden
    1) Biden has an extremely long track record as an effective, coalition building politician.
    2) And winning elections.
    3) He presented a very considerable policy platform at the last election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,539
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html

    Classic selective editing:
    'They're just chanting death to America, but they seem friendly at the same time,' she said. 'It's utterly bizarre.

    And it wasn't a burka.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    SKS will never get anywhere near that IMO or as close as Corbyn was to being PM in GE 2017 (see Forde report for why we didnt get PM Jezza)
    Corbyn was nowhere close to being PM in 2017
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,480
    Burgessian said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    Stuart, I have a sense that urban and rural Scotland are slowly drifting apart so far as politics are concerned. It's why I think the ScotTories may do better in actual seat returns than the bare figures indicate. The council elections next year will be very interesting in indicating regional trends.
    I have a real sense that the border region, parts of NE Scotland, Northern Scotland and the Orkneys and Shetlands will be very responsive to the lib dem - conservative pact against independence no matter protestations from the nationalists
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,748
    edited August 2021
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    It makes no difference to the conclusion that the DUP would have the balance of power even on the precise Scottish numbers (just 53 SNP MPs rather than the 55 I gave).

    However if you really want to be pedantic on those numbers the SNP would pick up Moray, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories but the Tories would hold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and Banff and Buchan.

    SLab would hold Edinburgh South and the SNP would pick up Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and Fife NE from the LDs but the LDs would hold Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,027
    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,938
    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    He's strongly disliked by 2 groups. The Corbynite Left, as you say, and also a certain type of chippy Hard Leaver for whom he epitomizes the (imaginary but vividly real for them) Metropolitan Professional Remainer Class who tried to steal their Brexit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Burgessian said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    Stuart, I have a sense that urban and rural Scotland are slowly drifting apart so far as politics are concerned. It's why I think the ScotTories may do better in actual seat returns than the bare figures indicate. The council elections next year will be very interesting in indicating regional trends.
    You are correct that vote concentration is crucial in FPTP elections. However, I’m not sure how useful the locals are going to be: they’re done under STV and analysing the resulting boorach is often meaningless.

    As for your urban/rural theory: what are you basing that on? The Tory vote in urban Scotland seems to be holding up very well, which would contraindicate a rural surge.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    New Zealand announce a 7 day lockdown in Auckland and 3 day throughout NZ on discovery of 1 delta variant covid in Auckland

    That’s bonkers, but I guess they’ve just seen Australia fail to contain an outbreak of Delta. It’s now or never for the Kiwis.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    It makes no difference to the conclusion that the DUP would have the balance of power even on the precise Scottish numbers.

    However if you really want to be pedantic on those numbers the SNP would pick up Moray, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories but the Tories would hold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and Banff and Buchan.

    SLab would hold Edinburgh South and the SNP would pick up Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and Fife NE from the LDs but the LDs would hold Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland
    All fascinating. But please answer my question:

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I wonder if Starmer is more popular than Ed M
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html

    Classic selective editing:
    'They're just chanting death to America, but they seem friendly at the same time,' she said. 'It's utterly bizarre.

    And it wasn't a burka.
    PJ O'Rourke recounted being present at a Hezbollah rally, in Lebanon in the 80s. A young chap, in between chanting "Death To America" was asking him about the pros and cons of which American university to study dentistry at.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,748
    edited August 2021
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    It makes no difference to the conclusion that the DUP would have the balance of power even on the precise Scottish numbers.

    However if you really want to be pedantic on those numbers the SNP would pick up Moray, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Dumfries and Galloway from the Tories but the Tories would hold Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and Banff and Buchan.

    SLab would hold Edinburgh South and the SNP would pick up Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and Fife NE from the LDs but the LDs would hold Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland
    All fascinating. But please answer my question:

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    We elect a UK government, only Scottish numbers as part of the UK numbers are relevant not alone.

    Scottish numbers alone are only relevant for devolved Holyrood elections
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
    Interestingly, his opponents on the ultra-left in the Labour party are trying to use his time in DPP to make him out to be some kind of heartless oppressor of the poor/minorities.

    There is only one area in the DPP thing that could really hurt him - but I don't think that he would have been stupid enough to be connected to it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    edited August 2021
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    There’s so many jokes there to be made, about both the Luftwaffe and the A400M - but seriously Germany, what the hell?

    Your name’s not on the list, so we’re not taking you, as even the Americans are cramming them in?

    Apparently there were supposed to be more diplomats and Germans on the flight, but they didn’t want to wait for them all to get to the airport!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    The good news is that the Labour membership is increasingly becoming more centrist and less radical, which can only be good news for Starmer going forward.

    He will walk it in any potential leadership election and any issues that may come up at Conference will be rendered irrelevant.

    Now he just needs to work on that speech
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
    Interestingly, his opponents on the ultra-left in the Labour party are trying to use his time in DPP to make him out to be some kind of heartless oppressor of the poor/minorities.

    There is only one area in the DPP thing that could really hurt him - but I don't think that he would have been stupid enough to be connected to it.
    The “Rotherham problem”, or Jimmy Savile?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,938
    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Bland, but not causing offence, doesn't win anything.

    There are plenty of social democratic policies that he could advocate out there. He needs to pick up a bundle of them.
    It worked for Biden
    1) Biden has an extremely long track record as an effective, coalition building politician.
    2) And winning elections.
    3) He presented a very considerable policy platform at the last election.
    And it was a binary choice between him and something beyond the pale.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,027
    Where everybody moved during the pandemic in the US

    https://youtu.be/Y3DEpThhyeY

    Be interesting to see the same for the UK.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,120
    StuartDickson said:

    Burgessian said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest Redfield voteshares of Tories 40%, Labour 36%, LDs 10% and SNP 5%, Greens 5% and Ref 3% gives Tories 317, Labour 246, SNP 55 and LDs 9.

    So the Tories short by 9 of a majority but still largest party and still with more seats than Labour, the SNP, the LDs, the Greens and PC combined.

    So it would really depend what the DUP decided to do and whether Jeffrey Donaldson was willing to make Starmer PM rather than Boris or not eg to accept or not closer alignment to the SM and CU for the whole UK with Starmer to remove the Irish Sea border

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1427299142666174465?s=20
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=36&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23.6&SCOTLAB=19.2&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.3&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Where are you getting those figures from?

    Scotnat 47.5%
    Scotcon 23.6%
    Scotlab 19.2%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 1.5%
    Scotreform 0.3%
    Stuart, I have a sense that urban and rural Scotland are slowly drifting apart so far as politics are concerned. It's why I think the ScotTories may do better in actual seat returns than the bare figures indicate. The council elections next year will be very interesting in indicating regional trends.
    You are correct that vote concentration is crucial in FPTP elections. However, I’m not sure how useful the locals are going to be: they’re done under STV and analysing the resulting boorach is often meaningless.

    As for your urban/rural theory: what are you basing that on? The Tory vote in urban Scotland seems to be holding up very well, which would contraindicate a rural surge.
    Based on performance in NE Scotland with strong trend particularly in Aberdeenshire and picking up extra seat in Highlands in May. Decline in Lothian, losing seat. Seem to be doing better with older demographic, as per rest of UK.

    Perhaps it depends what you mean by urban? Large cities - Edinburgh/Glasgow with students etc, not so good. Smaller settlements rather better?

    On the locals, you just need to look at the first prefs to get a pretty good impression. The Tory surge in the 2017 locals prefigured the gain of 12 Westminster seats a few weeks later.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Bland, but not causing offence, doesn't win anything.

    There are plenty of social democratic policies that he could advocate out there. He needs to pick up a bundle of them.
    It worked for Biden
    1) Biden has an extremely long track record as an effective, coalition building politician.
    2) And winning elections.
    3) He presented a very considerable policy platform at the last election.
    And it was a binary choice between him and something beyond the pale.
    Yes - but that alone wasn't enough. Otherwise Trump would have succeeded in painting him as an "extremist" or a front for "extremists", if he had tried to run as a blank slate.

    He had an actual policy platform and pitched that.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    He's strongly disliked by 2 groups. The Corbynite Left, as you say, and also a certain type of chippy Hard Leaver for whom he epitomizes the (imaginary but vividly real for them) Metropolitan Professional Remainer Class who tried to steal their Brexit.
    But the critical thing is the perception of the Labour Party not just its leader. To get a majority that needs to be transformed or the Tories utterly self-destruct and things go very badly wrong in next few years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,938
    Malmesbury said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Bland, but not causing offence, doesn't win anything.

    There are plenty of social democratic policies that he could advocate out there. He needs to pick up a bundle of them.
    It worked for Biden
    1) Biden has an extremely long track record as an effective, coalition building politician.
    2) And winning elections.
    3) He presented a very considerable policy platform at the last election.
    And it was a binary choice between him and something beyond the pale.
    Yes - but that alone wasn't enough. Otherwise Trump would have succeeded in painting him as an "extremist" or a front for "extremists", if he had tried to run as a blank slate.

    He had an actual policy platform and pitched that.
    Yes, I agree with your 3 points. Just adding a 4th.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    .
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Where everybody moved during the pandemic in the US

    https://youtu.be/Y3DEpThhyeY

    Be interesting to see the same for the UK.

    So the anecdata from Joe Rogan and his guests, of many people leaving LA and NY for Miami and Austin, turned out to be pretty much correct.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,801
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    There’s so many jokes there to be made, about both the Luftwaffe and the A400M - but seriously Germany, what the hell?

    The A400M is quite reliable in Crab Air's hands. They generate about 65% of the fleet for operations which is stunningly good by military standards. C-130 struggles to break 50% these days. It would have been the perfect 'stratactical' lifter for the UK if they didn't already have C-17 and C-130.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,938
    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    He's strongly disliked by 2 groups. The Corbynite Left, as you say, and also a certain type of chippy Hard Leaver for whom he epitomizes the (imaginary but vividly real for them) Metropolitan Professional Remainer Class who tried to steal their Brexit.
    But the critical thing is the perception of the Labour Party not just its leader. To get a majority that needs to be transformed or the Tories utterly self-destruct and things go very badly wrong in next few years.
    Transformed as in 'safe with money' and 'love Britain', you mean?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,039
    bigjohnowls said:

    Minutes from Cobra

    The 15.30 entry has several spelling errors should read comin days, shittin, dehumanisin,
    g's were added in error

    https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1427168880057888774/photo/1

    That's just sad rather than funny.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,699
    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    That will be something he has in common with Corbyn then
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,534
    Tragic brief video of an Afghan clinging on to that plane in the air. Pretty distressing. Be warned


    https://twitter.com/nhn_newhorizon/status/1427468827487621122?s=21
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Mexicanpete said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    That will be something he has in common with Corbyn then
    I think you're wrong Pete. Only time will tell
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,011
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    Could Reuters be a better source than your random tweet? Merkel anticipates having to evacuate up to 10,000 Afghans with German connections:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/merkel-says-germany-must-focus-its-afghan-rescue-mission-2021-08-16/
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Leon said:

    Tragic brief video of an Afghan clinging on to that plane in the air. Pretty distressing. Be warned


    https://twitter.com/nhn_newhorizon/status/1427468827487621122?s=21

    It's fake apparently
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,430
    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
    Interestingly, his opponents on the ultra-left in the Labour party are trying to use his time in DPP to make him out to be some kind of heartless oppressor of the poor/minorities.

    There is only one area in the DPP thing that could really hurt him - but I don't think that he would have been stupid enough to be connected to it.
    The “Rotherham problem”, or Jimmy Savile?
    It does not really matter if Starmer was involved or not. If the suggestion is made on social media, under the radar, who will even know to refute it?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    He's strongly disliked by 2 groups. The Corbynite Left, as you say, and also a certain type of chippy Hard Leaver for whom he epitomizes the (imaginary but vividly real for them) Metropolitan Professional Remainer Class who tried to steal their Brexit.
    But the critical thing is the perception of the Labour Party not just its leader. To get a majority that needs to be transformed or the Tories utterly self-destruct and things go very badly wrong in next few years.
    There is just about no chance that LAB can win a majority. The loss of Scotland makes that almost impossible. The best for Starmer is a hung parliament with the Tories unable to find support
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,011
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
    Interestingly, his opponents on the ultra-left in the Labour party are trying to use his time in DPP to make him out to be some kind of heartless oppressor of the poor/minorities.

    There is only one area in the DPP thing that could really hurt him - but I don't think that he would have been stupid enough to be connected to it.
    The “Rotherham problem”, or Jimmy Savile?
    It does not really matter if Starmer was involved or not. If the suggestion is made on social media, under the radar, who will even know to refute it?
    Unlike you to be so cynical. I think it does actually matter whether Starmer was involved or not. It would be nice to focus on the truth.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    StuartDickson said:

    - “… it is hard to see the Tories holding onto their GE2019 vote share north of the border based on Redfield’s SNP GB vote share of 5% compared with the 4% at GE2019. My guess is that half the current SCON seat total of 6 would be at risk if the election went according to this poll.”

    Yes Mike, that looks about right. If you pump the R&W figures into Baxter you get:

    SNP 55 seats (+7)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLab 1 seat (nc)
    SLD 0 seats (-4)

    However, that is hardly news. No, the most important Redfield finding was in fact this:

    - “Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, who do you think best embodies the following characteristics:”

    Is in good physical and mental health
    Starmer 37%
    Johnson 27%
    DK 36%

    The LDs would manage at least 2 seats in Scotland.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,430
    edited August 2021
    OT my support bubble has phoned in sick – oddly, our American colleagues used to say called *out* sick – so this week's masks-and-gaps report from Sainsbury's is postponed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,534
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Leon said:

    Tragic brief video of an Afghan clinging on to that plane in the air. Pretty distressing. Be warned


    https://twitter.com/nhn_newhorizon/status/1427468827487621122?s=21

    It's fake apparently
    I apologise if it is, but the comments below imply that it’s real - I checked. Who knows.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    SKS will never get anywhere near that IMO or as close as Corbyn was to being PM in GE 2017 (see Forde report for why we didnt get PM Jezza)
    Corbyn polled 41% in 2017 on a GB basis.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,408
    Cyclefree said:

    Unimpressed by Biden. Unimpressed by Starmer.

    Since we appear to be reliving the worst bits of the 1970's, worth noting that Fred Emery's very good 5-part documentary on Watergate is on iPlayer. Well worth watching.

    Washington Behind Closed Doors was also brilliant.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,938
    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html

    Classic selective editing:
    'They're just chanting death to America, but they seem friendly at the same time,' she said. 'It's utterly bizarre.

    And it wasn't a burka.
    PJ O'Rourke recounted being present at a Hezbollah rally, in Lebanon in the 80s. A young chap, in between chanting "Death To America" was asking him about the pros and cons of which American university to study dentistry at.
    Good one - but one does wonder how many of these type of stories from professional humorists are true.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    I am a bit surprised we don't hear more about Lebanon, which is without a functional government and continues to deteriorate. Currently widespread blackouts and internet outages. Inflation is at 157% and unemployment estiamted at 40%.

    This is a country with a complicated relationship with Shia extremism but generally speaking a willing ally in the fight against (Sunni-dominated) Islamic extremism.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,832
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    Fifth time I think that that’s been posted on here. Interesting to ponder on why it caresses the PB G-spot so sweetly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,408
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html

    We'll be having mostly peaceful stonings before long.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,699
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    That will be something he has in common with Corbyn then
    I think you're wrong Pete. Only time will tell
    Much water to flow under the bridge between now and next GE. I am still not convinced that the booming economy that keeps being lauded on here will last the distance.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kinabalu said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    He's strongly disliked by 2 groups. The Corbynite Left, as you say, and also a certain type of chippy Hard Leaver for whom he epitomizes the (imaginary but vividly real for them) Metropolitan Professional Remainer Class who tried to steal their Brexit.
    But the critical thing is the perception of the Labour Party not just its leader. To get a majority that needs to be transformed or the Tories utterly self-destruct and things go very badly wrong in next few years.
    Transformed as in 'safe with money' and 'love Britain', you mean?
    A bit of that (I'll ignore the sarcastic phrasing) and ditching any hint of supporting various off-putting flavours Wokery and cancel culture.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,534
    Biden’s speech gets absolutely roasted here. Called a total ‘liar’ by some army vet who sounds highly convincing and well-informed. Ouch

    https://twitter.com/whitneyleerob/status/1427386966685913092?s=21
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,555
    Government plans to resettle refugees directly from refugee camps, just as it did with Syrians. Expect 30-50k over the next couple of years at least. I think the government really needs to start dealing with the chancers arriving in Dover.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html

    Classic selective editing:
    'They're just chanting death to America, but they seem friendly at the same time,' she said. 'It's utterly bizarre.

    And it wasn't a burka.
    PJ O'Rourke recounted being present at a Hezbollah rally, in Lebanon in the 80s. A young chap, in between chanting "Death To America" was asking him about the pros and cons of which American university to study dentistry at.
    Good one - but one does wonder how many of these type of stories from professional humorists are true.
    I met a couple of people at university in the UK, who would have fit the profile. "Death To The West, but first I need to go to Cocktail night - 2-for-1 on Thursdays at the Union..."
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,430
    Northern_Al said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
    Interestingly, his opponents on the ultra-left in the Labour party are trying to use his time in DPP to make him out to be some kind of heartless oppressor of the poor/minorities.

    There is only one area in the DPP thing that could really hurt him - but I don't think that he would have been stupid enough to be connected to it.
    The “Rotherham problem”, or Jimmy Savile?
    It does not really matter if Starmer was involved or not. If the suggestion is made on social media, under the radar, who will even know to refute it?
    Unlike you to be so cynical. I think it does actually matter whether Starmer was involved or not. It would be nice to focus on the truth.
    Lots of things should matter: few things do. I expect CCHQ's fact-checking service will give them a clean bill of health.

    Twitter accuses Tories of misleading public with 'factcheck' foray
    Dominic Raab defends rebranding account during debate and adds: ‘no one gives a toss’
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/20/twitter-accuses-tories-of-misleading-public-in-factcheck-row
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    StuartDickson said:

    - “… it is hard to see the Tories holding onto their GE2019 vote share north of the border based on Redfield’s SNP GB vote share of 5% compared with the 4% at GE2019. My guess is that half the current SCON seat total of 6 would be at risk if the election went according to this poll.”

    Yes Mike, that looks about right. If you pump the R&W figures into Baxter you get:

    SNP 55 seats (+7)
    SCon 3 seats (-3)
    SLab 1 seat (nc)
    SLD 0 seats (-4)

    However, that is hardly news. No, the most important Redfield finding was in fact this:

    - “Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, who do you think best embodies the following characteristics:”

    Is in good physical and mental health
    Starmer 37%
    Johnson 27%
    DK 36%

    The LDs would manage at least 2 seats in Scotland.
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    The good news is that the Labour membership is increasingly becoming more centrist and less radical, which can only be good news for Starmer going forward.

    He will walk it in any potential leadership election and any issues that may come up at Conference will be rendered irrelevant.

    Now he just needs to work on that speech

    That does not follow if he becomes perceived as an electoral dud lacking basic political 'nous'. By now he would be under very serious threat had Labour lost Batley & Spen last month. Labour's narrow win there owed nothing to Starmer - and everything to Hancock and the absence of a Green candidate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,541
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I am a bit surprised we don't hear more about Lebanon, which is without a functional government and continues to deteriorate. Currently widespread blackouts and internet outages. Inflation is at 157% and unemployment estiamted at 40%.

    This is a country with a complicated relationship with Shia extremism but generally speaking a willing ally in the fight against (Sunni-dominated) Islamic extremism.

    Because the Lebanese don't have a photogenic war on at the moment. A country quietly crumbling isn't as fun as lots of dead people in the streets.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,534
    This is pure anecdata but all my American friends who have expressed an opinion - and they are 100% anti-Trump, generally liberal - say they are ‘ashamed’ by the Afghan situation. That’s their word

    Perhaps more interestingly, they are starting the conversation. eg ‘Are you watching the news from Afghanistan?’

    This must hurt Biden? But my friends might be unrepresentative
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,027
    edited August 2021
    Northern_Al said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    Could Reuters be a better source than your random tweet? Merkel anticipates having to evacuate up to 10,000 Afghans with German connections:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/merkel-says-germany-must-focus-its-afghan-rescue-mission-2021-08-16/
    "Random tweet"... that's a journalist with Bild talking about a featured story in the newspaper.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,832
    Northern_Al said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    Could Reuters be a better source than your random tweet? Merkel anticipates having to evacuate up to 10,000 Afghans with German connections:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/merkel-says-germany-must-focus-its-afghan-rescue-mission-2021-08-16/
    Come now, Germany taking in 270k Afghan refugees since 2001 is naught but shallow virtue signalling compared to the authentic, hearty 56k that the UK took in the same period. I’m sure this is similar flimflam from Merkel.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,801
    MaxPB said:

    I think the government really needs to start dealing with the chancers arriving in Dover.

    It's so utterly beyond their collective abilities in imagination, resolve and diplomacy that they may as well not bother. Which they're not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tonight, the A400M of the German Luftwaffe evacuated 7 people from Kabul.
    Yes, you read that correctly. SEVEN.
    Those 7 were at the airport and on the official embassy-list to be flown out.
    My heart breaks for those who helped our army for years and are now being left behind.

    https://twitter.com/JeannePlaumann/status/1427389030694629377?s=19

    There’s so many jokes there to be made, about both the Luftwaffe and the A400M - but seriously Germany, what the hell?

    The A400M is quite reliable in Crab Air's hands. They generate about 65% of the fleet for operations which is stunningly good by military standards. C-130 struggles to break 50% these days. It would have been the perfect 'stratactical' lifter for the UK if they didn't already have C-17 and C-130.
    The C-17 that we only got because the 400M was so late that we had a huge hole in capability, and turned out to be a much better fit for the requirement, than the plane that couldn’t work out if it was supposed to a Hercules or a Globemaster, but was more expensive and less capable than either?

    We only got them, because otherwise some hapless SoS would have had to plead the Treasury to write off the development costs, for which we were already deep in the hole.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,011
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Northern_Al said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    I concede.

    But this a much better starting point than Corbyn, Ed M
    Jeremy Corbyn went quickly from loved in 2017 to hated in 2019 and CCHQ will be hoping – and certainly planning – to effect the same transformation on the current leader. Soon after Starmer was elected, there were a number of posts here and elsewhere blaming his time as DPP for failure to prosecute or pursue various ne'er-do-wells and these may have been trial runs.
    Interestingly, his opponents on the ultra-left in the Labour party are trying to use his time in DPP to make him out to be some kind of heartless oppressor of the poor/minorities.

    There is only one area in the DPP thing that could really hurt him - but I don't think that he would have been stupid enough to be connected to it.
    The “Rotherham problem”, or Jimmy Savile?
    It does not really matter if Starmer was involved or not. If the suggestion is made on social media, under the radar, who will even know to refute it?
    Unlike you to be so cynical. I think it does actually matter whether Starmer was involved or not. It would be nice to focus on the truth.
    Lots of things should matter: few things do. I expect CCHQ's fact-checking service will give them a clean bill of health.

    Twitter accuses Tories of misleading public with 'factcheck' foray
    Dominic Raab defends rebranding account during debate and adds: ‘no one gives a toss’
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/20/twitter-accuses-tories-of-misleading-public-in-factcheck-row
    Yes, I know. I'm old-fashioned and naive, I guess. I'd rather follow Michelle Obama's edict, though: when they go low, we should go high.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,430
    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Classic CNN....mostly peaceful protests again...

    CNN reporter dons burka to report on Taliban fighters in Kabul and says they 'seem friendly' despite chanting 'Death to America' and telling her to stand aside because she's a woman

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9899213/Bari-Weiss-hammers-Ted-Cruz-criticizing-CNN-reporter-Kabul-said-Taliban-friendly.html

    Classic selective editing:
    'They're just chanting death to America, but they seem friendly at the same time,' she said. 'It's utterly bizarre.

    And it wasn't a burka.
    PJ O'Rourke recounted being present at a Hezbollah rally, in Lebanon in the 80s. A young chap, in between chanting "Death To America" was asking him about the pros and cons of which American university to study dentistry at.
    Good one - but one does wonder how many of these type of stories from professional humorists are true.
    I dimly recall a similar story. Attendance on demos was "expected" – a bit like some terrorist funerals in 1970s Northern Ireland, or how middle-of-the-road protestors carry SWP placards (because only the SWP provides them).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,555
    Leon said:

    This is pure anecdata but all my American friends who have expressed an opinion - and they are 100% anti-Trump, generally liberal - say they are ‘ashamed’ by the Afghan situation. That’s their word

    Perhaps more interestingly, they are starting the conversation. eg ‘Are you watching the news from Afghanistan?’

    This must hurt Biden? But my friends might be unrepresentative

    I think the manner of the withdrawal that has put Americans at risk is what will hurt him the most. Extending the withdrawal timeframe by an extra month to continue getting thousands of people out of the country would have been a no cost option but he chose to push the withdrawal date up and that has had pretty awful consequences with people now trapped and the US government hoping that the Taliban won't execute or ransom them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,938
    Leon said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Leon said:

    Tragic brief video of an Afghan clinging on to that plane in the air. Pretty distressing. Be warned


    https://twitter.com/nhn_newhorizon/status/1427468827487621122?s=21

    It's fake apparently
    I apologise if it is, but the comments below imply that it’s real - I checked. Who knows.
    Oh look, it's Mr Provocative with his HUGE sense of mischievous black humour who got all upset about somebody posting "The Boys are Back in Town" in ref to the Taliban.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthofStoke said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I think Starmer will perform significantly better than most think and has a good chance at being PM of a minority Government. My view is he would be a lot better at that than LOTO

    He will not get anywhere near office so we will never know.
    He's a lot more popular than Corbyn
    I would rather suggest that he isn't as aggressively unpopular as Corbyn was, with a large chunk of the electorate.

    Outside of a portion of Maomentum, Starmer isn't disliked, from what I can see in polling.

    He needs to come up with a pitch as to why people should vote *for* him, though.
    He's strongly disliked by 2 groups. The Corbynite Left, as you say, and also a certain type of chippy Hard Leaver for whom he epitomizes the (imaginary but vividly real for them) Metropolitan Professional Remainer Class who tried to steal their Brexit.
    But the critical thing is the perception of the Labour Party not just its leader. To get a majority that needs to be transformed or the Tories utterly self-destruct and things go very badly wrong in next few years.
    There is just about no chance that LAB can win a majority. The loss of Scotland makes that almost impossible. The best for Starmer is a hung parliament with the Tories unable to find support
    I do strongly suspect though that if the polls in 2023/2024 are similar - or better for Labour - than the last two Redfield & Wilton polls, Labour will recover somewhat in Scotland to the extent of at least matching its 2017 result there. Many voters who plump for the SNP for Holyrood would switch back to Labour at Westminster to defeat the Tories across GB.
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