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Don’t fear for Keir – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 14 in General
imageDon’t fear for Keir – politicalbetting.com

Bookies will give you just 1/2 on the next election being in 2024, but longer than evens on Starmer being Labour leader that long. That doesn’t add up…

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,144
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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,301
    edited August 14
    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743
    On topic, yes, that seems plausible, even likely, especially since there might be an early election, or Boris might retire.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,301

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    edited August 14

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    Yes, I agree with that. Most English people only notice Scotland when it complains particularly loudly, or demands even more subsidies.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 733

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Lol
  • AslanAslan Posts: 733

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    We are not claiming the Scots have an inferiority complex. I am saying that you do, or you seem to, with your imagined English plots to do down Scotland. Look at our recent Prime Ministers: Gordon Brown is Scottish; David Cameron's family is Scottish; Tony Blair was raised and educated in Scotland. Hardly evidence of an English rejection of Scotland.

    The population of Britain is around 68 million, of whom about five and a half million are Scots. That's smaller than London. In the event of Scottish independence, the remaining UK would still be a peer of Germany, Italy and France. We'd probably hang on to the missiles and security council seat too. I've not heard Nicola Sturgeon claim Polaris for an independent Scotland, though to be fair, I've not been paying attention.

    English voters are not agitating for Scottish independence, or against it. Unless there's a football match, I'm not sure I've heard much discussion of Scotland at all in the past few decades, although I do know older English couples who married in Gretna Green or honeymooned in Fort William. I doubt the average English voter could accurately place Glasgow and Edinburgh on a map. That should be the case for Scottish independence: that England cannot give Scottish affairs the attention they deserve; not that there is plotting to do Scotland down.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,301
    Fishing said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    Yes, I agree with that. Most English people only notice Scotland when it complains particularly loudly, or demands even more subsidies.
    So, we take it that you disagree that the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases and that you will continue to vote Conservative? I’m stunned I tells ya.

    What do you think about Pip’s 40-50 seats? Are the Tories going to lose that many?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,301

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    We are not claiming the Scots have an inferiority complex. I am saying that you do, or you seem to, with your imagined English plots to do down Scotland. Look at our recent Prime Ministers: Gordon Brown is Scottish; David Cameron's family is Scottish; Tony Blair was raised and educated in Scotland. Hardly evidence of an English rejection of Scotland.

    The population of Britain is around 68 million, of whom about five and a half million are Scots. That's smaller than London. In the event of Scottish independence, the remaining UK would still be a peer of Germany, Italy and France. We'd probably hang on to the missiles and security council seat too. I've not heard Nicola Sturgeon claim Polaris for an independent Scotland, though to be fair, I've not been paying attention.

    English voters are not agitating for Scottish independence, or against it. Unless there's a football match, I'm not sure I've heard much discussion of Scotland at all in the past few decades, although I do know older English couples who married in Gretna Green or honeymooned in Fort William. I doubt the average English voter could accurately place Glasgow and Edinburgh on a map. That should be the case for Scottish independence: that England cannot give Scottish affairs the attention they deserve; not that there is plotting to do Scotland down.
    Thank you. A bit clichéd (SeanT is a comic character, not a guru). Revised up to C-
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,301
    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You mean the British government. Scotland has a share in Boris too.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 733

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,721
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    You are wasting your time engaging - he is simply a troll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554
    The contradiction - and possible flaw with the tip - in the article is that the more likely a 2023 election the more likely Starmer doesn’t make it to 2024.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Dickson, I must disagree entirely.

    The UK had already seen substantial rises in support for UKIP/leaving the EU before the 2014 Scottish referendum. Labour's reneging of the Lisbon Treaty referendum was an obvious recent cause.

    Not only that, but Remain ran an absolutely atrocious campaign.

    There are more things in this universe than Scotland and the desire by some for Scotland to leave the UK. It isn't the root cause of everything. It was not the root cause of the UK voting to leave the EU.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743
    Still no Spectator video. Perhaps they spent the entire week's budget on a celebrity guest columnist.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Dickson, I must disagree entirely.

    The UK had already seen substantial rises in support for UKIP/leaving the EU before the 2014 Scottish referendum. Labour's reneging of the Lisbon Treaty referendum was an obvious recent cause.

    Not only that, but Remain ran an absolutely atrocious campaign.

    There are more things in this universe than Scotland and the desire by some for Scotland to leave the UK. It isn't the root cause of everything. It was not the root cause of the UK voting to leave the EU.

    It’s an obsession for a tiny minority but for the majority of Brits it really isn’t something people get hot and bothered about.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    Hi, there is no English government. HTH.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Still no Spectator video. Perhaps they spent the entire week's budget on a celebrity guest columnist.

    Why are you so worked up about it?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,315
    edited August 14

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Dickson, I must disagree entirely.

    The UK had already seen substantial rises in support for UKIP/leaving the EU before the 2014 Scottish referendum. Labour's reneging of the Lisbon Treaty referendum was an obvious recent cause.

    Not only that, but Remain ran an absolutely atrocious campaign.

    There are more things in this universe than Scotland and the desire by some for Scotland to leave the UK. It isn't the root cause of everything. It was not the root cause of the UK voting to leave the EU.

    Very well said

    @Stuart_Dickson just seems consumed with hate for the English as do so many others who have not come to terms with Brexit and ignore the fact 53% in Wales voted brexit and even 38% in Scotland
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743

    Still no Spectator video. Perhaps they spent the entire week's budget on a celebrity guest columnist.

    Why are you so worked up about it?
    I'm not worked up about it. I just noticed again this morning and worked in a weak joke about a well-known PB face writing for them.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    If it became harder for tourists south of the border to visit Scotland and numbers fell that’s only really going to hurt Scotland and it’s tourism economy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    Taz said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    If it became harder for tourists south of the border to visit Scotland and numbers fell that’s only really going to hurt Scotland and it’s tourism economy.
    Financially, I agree, but there's already a sense of limiting horizons, which is only partly due to The Plague. We'd become even more 'Little England'!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,315
    Taz said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    If it became harder for tourists south of the border to visit Scotland and numbers fell that’s only really going to hurt Scotland and it’s tourism economy.
    Imagine my wife and I want to visit our family in the north of Scotland and by the way she is as much a Scot as any of the Nationalists and she was stopped at the border and had to show her passport

    I would also say she condemns the hate filled nationalists who do so much damage to the reputation of the kind and generous people who are Scots
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231

    Taz said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    If it became harder for tourists south of the border to visit Scotland and numbers fell that’s only really going to hurt Scotland and it’s tourism economy.
    Imagine my wife and I want to visit our family in the north of Scotland and by the way she is as much a Scot as any of the Nationalists and she was stopped at the border and had to show her passport

    I would also say she condemns the hate filled nationalists who do so much damage to the reputation of the kind and generous people who are Scots
    One can be kind and generous, welcoming to visitors and also 'nationalist'. That's my experience of visiting the Republic of Ireland.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    I get the sense you haven’t spent much time in England recently. That was the most nonsensical post I’ve read on here in a looong time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,315
    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    A hard border between Berwick and Carlisle would make it more difficult
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    If it became harder for tourists south of the border to visit Scotland and numbers fell that’s only really going to hurt Scotland and it’s tourism economy.
    Imagine my wife and I want to visit our family in the north of Scotland and by the way she is as much a Scot as any of the Nationalists and she was stopped at the border and had to show her passport

    I would also say she condemns the hate filled nationalists who do so much damage to the reputation of the kind and generous people who are Scots
    Talking of hate filled some used Covid as an excuse for blatant anti English sentiment last year. The SNP regime in Edinburgh eventually, after much coaxing, condemned the stunt and the language but it is clear that a sizeable minority of Indy supporters are just driven by anti English bigotry.

    It’s sad.

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/stay-fk-away-convoy-scottish-nationalists-attempt-blockade-english-border-2904148
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    edited August 14
    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,831
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    I would like to upvote this. The only interesting feature of the Sindy question is how to make the currency work but oddly it’s rare to meet a Scottish nationalist who wants to engage on this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    moonshine said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    I would like to upvote this. The only interesting feature of the Sindy question is how to make the currency work but oddly it’s rare to meet a Scottish nationalist who wants to engage on this.
    Given that Leavers brushed aside all questions of potential difficulties around border control, is it surprising?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,554
    moonshine said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    I would like to upvote this. The only interesting feature of the Sindy question is how to make the currency work but oddly it’s rare to meet a Scottish nationalist who wants to engage on this.
    Didn't they notice how successful the Brexiters were by their thorough and comprehensive working through of all the practical consequences of leaving, before we got to vote?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476
    moonshine said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    I would like to upvote this. The only interesting feature of the Sindy question is how to make the currency work but oddly it’s rare to meet a Scottish nationalist who wants to engage on this.
    They seem to think they will be independent by keeping the pound.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,915

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    A hard border between Berwick and Carlisle would make it more difficult
    Project Fear. There will be an electronic "Trusted Sassenach" scheme. Teresa May was working on it but Johnson scrapped it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
    I’ve never been to Ireland (North or South). But I have been to Scotland and Wales many times. They are both quite different to England. But I’m not sure why that would be considered a problem.

    A different currency is the only change that I can think of, but that’s hardly the end of the world.

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743
    Taz said:

    moonshine said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    This is exactly right. Mostly the topic just bores the English. Stay, go, no one cares.
    Great! I look forward to the English government, BBC and Z-list celebs staying neutral during the referendum.
    You're proving my point. The fact they had to resort to such Z-listers is because they couldn't find anyone more important who cared.

    We could actually run a test. This is the most obsessive political blog in the UK. Once this exchange has run its course today, all Scottish nationalists on here can avoid mentioning Scottish independence and we can see how many days it is before there's a debate about Scotland. That will show how much English people care about it. I reckon it will be weeks.
    I would like to upvote this. The only interesting feature of the Sindy question is how to make the currency work but oddly it’s rare to meet a Scottish nationalist who wants to engage on this.
    They seem to think they will be independent by keeping the pound.
    Independence along with the pound sustained Ireland for decades. If Scotland has to choose between the pound and the euro, then in neither case will the central bank be based in Edinburgh. Probably the pound would be the better bet, given how closely our two economies are aligned but perhaps the aim of independence is to allow divergence. Who knows?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    tlg86 said:

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.

    The person most worried about it is BoZo.

    Is he suffering from BDS?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. 86, must disagree. I'd really rather like my country not to be needlessly torn into pieces. Cui bono?

    It'd be bad for Scotland, and for the rest of the UK.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I think that you are over cooking it a bit, but elements of truth in there.

    England is a strange place nowadays, and one divided against itself. I cannot see the Union surviving for much longer.

    On the currency, Indy Scotland should join the Euro, but stay in the CTA. It works for Ireland. Probably need to have direct ferries to the continent again because of the land border to England. There will be teething problems disentangling from the Union, but in the long term better for Scotland to go its own way.

    I have English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish ancestry, so will have some regrets at the end of British identity. I have always been more comfortable as British than English as an identity, but so it goes.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Dr. Foxy, I think that's a really odd perspective.

    I'm not denying the rather sad political polarisation in England, but the idea that Scotland isn't riddled with that too is clearly false. Not sure why you single out one and not the other, seems a little one-sided.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,231
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
    I’ve never been to Ireland (North or South). But I have been to Scotland and Wales many times. They are both quite different to England. But I’m not sure why that would be considered a problem.

    A different currency is the only change that I can think of, but that’s hardly the end of the world.

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
    Actually, that poses quite a good question. Are those who would 'regret' Scotland's departure from the Union mostly Remainers and is that because we regret the loss of a larger whole, or because the world is changing and we don't like the prospect?
    Personally I would have been happy with the constituent parts of the present UK as separate entities within the EU, but I fear now that I won't live long enough to see it, or anything like it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    Dr. Foxy, I think that's a really odd perspective.

    I'm not denying the rather sad political polarisation in England, but the idea that Scotland isn't riddled with that too is clearly false. Not sure why you single out one and not the other, seems a little one-sided.

    Oh Scotland is clearly divided too, but the issue there is Independence vs Unionism. It is a different sort of identity crisis to the English one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    Actually, that poses quite a good question. Are those who would 'regret' Scotland's departure from the Union mostly Remainers and is that because we regret the loss of a larger whole, or because the world is changing and we don't like the prospect?

    The breakup of the Union is a tragedy.

    And a logical consequence of Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    Cant say I'm thrilled my analysis of incels has now formed the basis of your theorizing on England as a nation, but I suppose a creator cannot help in what way people are inspired by things!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
    I’ve never been to Ireland (North or South). But I have been to Scotland and Wales many times. They are both quite different to England. But I’m not sure why that would be considered a problem.

    A different currency is the only change that I can think of, but that’s hardly the end of the world.

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
    Actually, that poses quite a good question. Are those who would 'regret' Scotland's departure from the Union mostly Remainers and is that because we regret the loss of a larger whole, or because the world is changing and we don't like the prospect?
    Personally I would have been happy with the constituent parts of the present UK as separate entities within the EU, but I fear now that I won't live long enough to see it, or anything like it.
    Yes, I think those who would regret Scottish Independence are mostly Remainers, as Remainers are more comfortable with multiple overlaid identities as opposed to one narrowly defined one. There is too that a UK joining the EEA is much more likely than a rump England doing so.

    English Leavers seem to fall into 3 groups:

    1) Tankies like @HYUFD who see Scotland as a colony to be occupied.

    2) Those who couldn't care less about Scotland (or Northern Ireland etc for that matter)

    3) Those who actively want rid, seeing the Celtic nations as a drag financially and politically on England.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,503
    Why don’t we get StuartDickson to front the next Indy campaign and let the English vote on it? Guaranteed vote for Indy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,242

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Dr. Foxy, while not identical, it's beyond my comprehension to assert there aren't similarities between the Scottish divisions over leaving the UK and British divisions over leaving the EU.

    Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.

    I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
    I’ve never been to Ireland (North or South). But I have been to Scotland and Wales many times. They are both quite different to England. But I’m not sure why that would be considered a problem.

    A different currency is the only change that I can think of, but that’s hardly the end of the world.

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
    I find these kind of comments very strange and infuriating. I think it is impossible that people cannot understand that the combination of the UK nations is very meaningful for some others, as it's no different than anyone feeling attachment to any nation or region on this planet. That might be illogical in the sense we are all humans and borders and identity are silly, but the vast majority feel some level of emotion connection with some entity, be it UK, Scotland, Yorkshire or wherever.

    That's such a common feeling that I cannot believe people cannot understand it, and that people would therefore regret the breakup of the nation, even if they would not, even if, I fear, a great many would not.

    I totally get people not caring or seeing it as a big deal. I'd get that if it was a majority. But I dont get the idea it is some confusing mystery that some do care as it's so common and simple. I find that more insulting to people who do care about any national or international identity than an actual insult.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
    I've just come to Ireland by ferry from Holyhead clutching my vaccination certificate and locator forms. I wasn't asked for either, but I was stopped by customs and asked if I had any booze or fags.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769

    Dr. Foxy, while not identical, it's beyond my comprehension to assert there aren't similarities between the Scottish divisions over leaving the UK and British divisions over leaving the EU.

    Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.

    I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.

    Context matters.

    Abroad, in Europe I feel British, but further afield I feel European.
    In Scotland, I feel English. Elsewhere in the U.K. I’m a southerner.

    But fundamentally I’m from Sussex.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.

    That is not a realistic description of our membership of the EU, but is illustrative of how some Scots feel about "Westminster"...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,242
    Women and teachers, take some responsibility!

    https://twitter.com/rainy101/status/1426261117341405191?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
    Its a big political issue of course political wonks are likely to have a view. Though to Sindy's benefit I think it correct not enough in England care enough, not that I see how that helps beyond a 'UK doesn't work for Scotland/Westminster doesn't care' approach, which I imagine they figured out as a message without any help a long time ago.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Scott_xP said:
    Reduced to.posting Guardian tripe... i feel your pain, I really do.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. xP, that's a unique and challenging perspective of reality.

    Who elected Von Der Leyen?

    Scottish constituencies also contribute MPs. Before we had Conservative PMs, we had over a decade of Scottish Chancellors and between three and 13 years of a Scottish premiership (Blair being half-Scottish).

    I get Scots, and others, feeling Westminster is too distant, too focused on London. But the idea it isn't a Parliament represented by MPs that are elected by people all across the UK is palpable nonsense.

    The EU is constantly on the path of more integration. The UK has moved in the opposite direction over the last couple of decades.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    Reduced to.posting Guardian tripe... i feel your pain, I really do.

    WTF are you talking about?

    If you don't like the article, don't read it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Dr. Foxy, while not identical, it's beyond my comprehension to assert there aren't similarities between the Scottish divisions over leaving the UK and British divisions over leaving the EU.

    Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.

    I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.

    They key here is people feel different levels of attachment. Some Scot/Eu only, or Scot/UK/eu or eng/gb eng, eng/uk or eng/eu etc etc.

    Theres no mystery or illogic about a specific combination.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Jonathan said:

    Dr. Foxy, while not identical, it's beyond my comprehension to assert there aren't similarities between the Scottish divisions over leaving the UK and British divisions over leaving the EU.

    Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.

    I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.

    Context matters.

    Abroad, in Europe I feel British, but further afield I feel European.
    In Scotland, I feel English. Elsewhere in the U.K. I’m a southerner.

    But fundamentally I’m from Sussex.
    I agree with all of that . West asussex is much better than East Sussex imho but the cricket team is crap or has been of laye I was born in London so I support Surrey who havent been much better....

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    Mr. xP, that's a unique and challenging perspective of reality.

    The challenge to reality is the continuing myth that our lives were governed by the "unelected bureaucrats" in Brussels.

    Even now that we are out, BoZo and chums are still blaming their failures on Foreign bogy men.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    MD : "Who elected Von Der Leyen?"
    As one of the Elect there was no need for her to be elected.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    Dr. Foxy, while not identical, it's beyond my comprehension to assert there aren't similarities between the Scottish divisions over leaving the UK and British divisions over leaving the EU.

    Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.

    I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.

    Yes, perhaps I should have had a 4th group of sentimentality.

    Disintegration of the UK is a consequence of Brexit though, in part because NI and Scotland wanted to stay in the EU by significant majorities. Not only are they dragged out against their will, but in a form of Brexit that gave no concessions to Scottish voices, symbolising Westminsters lack of interest in the other nations.

    Secondly the arguments to "Take back Control" from rule by an external parliament are at least as valid for Scotland as for Brexit. Nationalism is like Protestantism, fundamentally fissile. Once you have broken away from the main on one issue, then there is no bar to breaking into smaller splinters.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    EXC: Scots wrestling champion had to to leave toddler at airport over Brexit settled status "nightmare" https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-wrestler-leave-toddler-airport-24756076
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    geoffw said:

    MD : "Who elected Von Der Leyen?"
    As one of the Elect there was no need for her to be elected.

    Who elected Claire Fox?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Foxy said:

    Nationalism is like Protestantism, fundamentally fissile. Once you have broken away from the main on one issue, then there is no bar to breaking into smaller splinters.

    Indeed.

    Those who argued for Brexit but against Indy are fundamentally dishonest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. xP, nobody ever claimed the the EU made all our laws. It's also undeniable that EU law has supremacy over the national laws of member states, is it not?

    I'm also not sure why you've put unelected bureaucrats in inverted commas. The only elections I recall were for MEPs, who were able to approve, or reject, laws proposed by the Commission.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769

    Jonathan said:

    Dr. Foxy, while not identical, it's beyond my comprehension to assert there aren't similarities between the Scottish divisions over leaving the UK and British divisions over leaving the EU.

    Also, I don't fall into any of those three pejorative categories you've invented to condemn English leavers as either imperialists, disinterested, or actively pro-Scottish independence. I like the UK. I want it to remain intact.

    I'm entirely comfortable with multiple identities (being a Yorkshireman, Englishman, and Briton). That doesn't mean I *have to* feel European in a cultural sense, or approve of the political and economic integration into the EU which could've, and should've, been handled far better rather than endlessly sucking authority and power from parliaments responsible to national electorates and placing it in the hands of bureaucrats with no loyalty or accountability to anything beyond the EU itself.

    Context matters.

    Abroad, in Europe I feel British, but further afield I feel European.
    In Scotland, I feel English. Elsewhere in the U.K. I’m a southerner.

    But fundamentally I’m from Sussex.
    I agree with all of that . West asussex is much better than East Sussex imho but the cricket team is crap or has been of laye I was born in London so I support Surrey who havent been much better....

    East Sussex has a very different vibe to West Sussex. Also coast vs downland. North vs South of the downs. Drive 20 miles and things can change significantly. Things have changed much in 40 years. Used to be poorer, rougher and wilder.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    edited August 14
    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    MD : "Who elected Von Der Leyen?"
    As one of the Elect there was no need for her to be elected.

    Who elected Claire Fox?
    Does she wield enormous power as head of an international bureaucracy?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    edited August 14
    geoffw said:

    Does she wield enormous power as head of an international bureaucracy?

    She wields more power than the EU President over our laws.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    The only elections I recall were for MEPs, who were able to approve, or reject, laws proposed by the Commission.

    That sounds a lot like democratic accountability.

    How does that compare with the House of Lords?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    edited August 14
    I did not say "Who elected Claire Fox?"
    ok - corrected
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning, fellow political anoraks. The sun is back this morning, although according to the BBC forecast, we can expect cloud cover for most of the day. Up to 14degC already!

    I suspect most people in England would be 'sorry' in a sort of 'oh dear how sad' way if Scotland left the Union, until the consequences started to become evident. Many people like going to Scotland for short, or even long holiday; if that became more difficult then the 'caring' would start.
    Was watching the weather forecast yesterday, and noted that Ireland was barely mentioned, and I think that would be the case for many English residents as far as Scotland was concerned.

    Why would going on holiday to Scotland become more difficult?
    I haven't been to the RoI for quite a few years now, but it was a little more difficult than going from England to Wales or Scotland, and not just because of the sea crossing. I can recall a sense of 'difference'.
    I’ve never been to Ireland (North or South). But I have been to Scotland and Wales many times. They are both quite different to England. But I’m not sure why that would be considered a problem.

    A different currency is the only change that I can think of, but that’s hardly the end of the world.

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
    I find these kind of comments very strange and infuriating. I think it is impossible that people cannot understand that the combination of the UK nations is very meaningful for some others, as it's no different than anyone feeling attachment to any nation or region on this planet. That might be illogical in the sense we are all humans and borders and identity are silly, but the vast majority feel some level of emotion connection with some entity, be it UK, Scotland, Yorkshire or wherever.

    That's such a common feeling that I cannot believe people cannot understand it, and that people would therefore regret the breakup of the nation, even if they would not, even if, I fear, a great many would not.

    I totally get people not caring or seeing it as a big deal. I'd get that if it was a majority. But I dont get the idea it is some confusing mystery that some do care as it's so common and simple. I find that more insulting to people who do care about any national or international identity than an actual insult.
    I’m not saying that people shouldn’t be regretful. As you say, regional and national identities are a strange thing. Truth be told I’m not a very sentimental person, but I get that emotional attachments can be very strong.

    What I object to is the sense that I ought to be regretful about it. I’m a democrat who firmly believes in the principle of self determination. If Scotland wants another referendum, they should have it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    Mr. xP, that's a unique and challenging perspective of reality.

    Who elected Von Der Leyen?

    Scottish constituencies also contribute MPs. Before we had Conservative PMs, we had over a decade of Scottish Chancellors and between three and 13 years of a Scottish premiership (Blair being half-Scottish).

    I get Scots, and others, feeling Westminster is too distant, too focused on London. But the idea it isn't a Parliament represented by MPs that are elected by people all across the UK is palpable nonsense.

    The EU is constantly on the path of more integration. The UK has moved in the opposite direction over the last couple of decades.

    UvdL was chosen by the European Parliament and Commissionrrs. It is not a directly elected post any more than our Prime Minister is.

    Scottish politics has changed in the last decade, and the majority party in Scotland is not a part of any Westminster government. Scots are represented by one or other of two parties in Westminster who scratch around to get 20% of the Scottish vote. That is not a sustainable situation in the long term. It means English hegemony over non devolved matters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    Scott_xP said:

    tlg86 said:

    The idea that English people should somehow be regretful for Scotland going independent is one of the strangest things on political betting. It’s mostly peddled by Remainers, so I guess it’s a symptom of Brexit Derangement Syndrome.

    The person most worried about it is BoZo.

    Is he suffering from BDS?
    It’s a fair point and I’ve noted on here that it’s always worth looking at the divisions between a party and it’s voters. I reckon this is an area where the Tory voters have quite a different outlook to the party. Whether that could become important at an election, I don’t know, but something to keep an eye on.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited August 14
    Scott_xP said:

    Mr. xP, that's a unique and challenging perspective of reality.

    The challenge to reality is the continuing myth that our lives were governed by the "unelected bureaucrats" in Brussels.

    Even now that we are out, BoZo and chums are still blaming their failures on Foreign bogy men.
    and why not.. Blame straight bananas , blame Up your Delors, blame Merkel, Blame von der Lyden, blame Macron.. blame Barnier blame them all because they are all (,not sure Delors is still alive) but blame him.anyway, trying to make our life difficult post Brexit. I supported remain ,but now I say feck the lot of them.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    IanB2 said:

    The contradiction - and possible flaw with the tip - in the article is that the more likely a 2023 election the more likely Starmer doesn’t make it to 2024.

    I might be misunderstanding you, but what is the contradiction of this? I agree that an early election is a risk for Starmer, particularly because one is more likely if the Tories are in a strong position. But I'm not advising for a bet on an early election, so I don't see what this contradicts? Unless you just mean 'The risk' when you say 'The contradiction' and I'm reading too much into your word choice.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Foxy: "Scots are represented by one or other of two parties in Westminster who scratch around to get 20% of the Scottish vote."
    You seem to be unacquainted with the political facts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. W, is that a Holy Roman Empire joke? If so, I approve.

    Dr. Foxy, it's almost as if pro-EU politicians giving no concessions to sceptics even when these were contained within manifestos of major political parties was a dumb move. Or that a pro-EU Parliament repeatedly rejecting every proposal and offering nothing but opposition, pushing the departure in an ever more sceptical/hardline direction, wasn't exactly in line with pro-EU interests.

    Boris Johnson is a moron, but even a pragmatic and intelligent man, faced with the situation of May's deal thrice rejected, would have struggled to find a compromise position. As I said repeatedly, when you have EU-loving MPs marching to vote the same way as Mark Francois, one side is voting stupidly.

    Furthermore, the embedding of political division in Scotland by the creation of Holyrood, made a permanent and naturally deepening gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK due to the ratchet effect of the SNP always able to outbid the other parties on 'standing up for Scotland' by clamouring for more and more powers and difference (because, of course, for the SNP the end goal of leaving is desirable and for the other parties excepting the male angler fish that is the Scottish Green Party it is not).

    That long pre-dated the rise of EU-sceptic sentiment in the UK.

    Also, you're fundamentally wrong about the UK and EU situations being the same. One is a nation state of over three centuries which has democratic elections to determine our lawmakers. The other is a supranational political project which is not democratically accountable yet is at the same time engaged in an endless drive for empire-building and integration, with power shifting from democratic member states to the undemocratic centre. This centralisation of power is also the opposite direction to recent UK moves, which has seen more and more power devolved to the assemblies/parliaments of the constituent nations (excepting the English, of course).

    Mr. xP, the Upper House of the UK cannot propose legislation and it can be overridden. In the EU, however, the elected part of the system cannot propose legislation.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,924

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    I don’t think the consequences for England of the end of the Union have even begun to be thought about in England. But it’s hard to see how they will be positive, at least in the short-term. Internationally, it will be regarded as a humiliating emasculation. That will have consequences on many levels. Not least on the home front, where there will be three main reactions: indifference, regret and fury. The latter will mostly be on the right, which will seek revenge on Scotland through the most punishing of divorces and will go very, very heavy on English nationalism. We will not be a happy country to live in or next door to.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Dr. Foxy, the PM is also an MP, and therefore, on that level at least, directly elected.

    Von Der Leyen was not thus elected.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,743

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
    My opinion on Scottish independence is that most people do not have one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607
    On topic 😀

    I am rather enjoying @Quincel Saturday headers, particularly with their emphasis on political betting!

    I agree that Starmer is very likely to fight the next election. The problem is that election may well be prior to 2024, and instant resignation of unsuccessful leaders after elections has become the norm. Personally, I think this regrettable as parties need some time to reflect before choosing a new leader. There is no need for hasty choices.

    On the one hand Starmer is wooden and unable to clearly communicate any vision for the party or country, and his flat-lining polls evidence that. This makes him unlikely to win enough seats to be next PM. In the less likely situation where the Tories lose their majority though, that lack of ideology and blank canvas is ideal for forming a coalition.

    I think that Starmer would be a far better PM than he is as Leader of the Opposition. Labour could have done far better though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    edited August 14

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    There are three components to England’s mental breakdown, and they are all interrelated:

    - crippling fear of rejection (why do the Scots want to go?)
    - self-hatred (hating foreigners is ultimately an indication of low self-esteem and lack of self-worth)
    - and seeking external causes to rage against (Scotland, France, Germany, China, infectious foreigners etc ad infinitum)

    Brexit was England’s (over-)reaction to the first Scottish independence referendum. It was entirely avoidable, but their fate was sealed when in 2010 Gordon Brown, in a fit of pique, immediately rejected SNP support for a minority Labour government, thus forcing the astonishingly naive Lib Dems into David Cameron’s rose garden/snake pit. The inevitable SNP landslide the following year sealed the process.

    English voters very much do give a toss about Scotland and Scottish independence, not because of Scotland per se, but because of Greater England, otherwise referred to as the United Kingdom: the only thing separating England from the realities of being a modern, normal, average medium-sized country and the global power of her imagination. No Scotland = no Security Council seat, no independent nuclear deterrent and no “special relationship”. English voters do care very, very much about Scotland. Without her they are King Lear bereft of his kingdom.

    Claiming that Scots have an “inferiority complex” - standard patter on this board - is pure psychological projection. It is the English who are wracked in self-doubt and insecurity. Ditto “paranoid”.

    Sentiment? Biscuit tins? Monarch of the Glen? Not the signs of a serious, well thought-out post.

    D-
    I don’t think the consequences for England of the end of the Union have even begun to be thought about in England. But it’s hard to see how they will be positive, at least in the short-term. Internationally, it will be regarded as a humiliating emasculation. That will have consequences on many levels. Not least on the home front, where there will be three main reactions: indifference, regret and fury. The latter will mostly be on the right, which will seek revenge on Scotland through the most punishing of divorces and will go very, very heavy on English nationalism. We will not be a happy country to live in or next door to.

    BiB - that sounds familiar. I can’t imagine where the inspiration for that would come from...

    But in all seriousness, what would a non-punishing divorce look like. How would a nice soft liberal like you handle it? The reality is that any punishment will be self-inflicted.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,534

    Scott_xP said:

    Mr. xP, that's a unique and challenging perspective of reality.

    The challenge to reality is the continuing myth that our lives were governed by the "unelected bureaucrats" in Brussels.

    Even now that we are out, BoZo and chums are still blaming their failures on Foreign bogy men.
    and why not.. Blame straight bananas , blame Up your Delors, blame Merkel, Blame von der Lyden, blame Macron.. blame Barnier blame them all because they are all (,not sure Delors is still alive) but blame him.anyway, trying to make our life difficult post Brexit. I supported remain ,but now I say feck the lot of them.
    We are a third country now. The EU has a lot of stringent rules for third countries, set up when we were in the EU, and we were instrumental in setting them up, so we are probably responsible in even more ways for our own pain. Don't fall for the express/mail hogwash.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,831

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I get the impression Labour are still quite unpopular in working-class areas in the English Midlands where a lot of the marginal seats are located. If that continues, they won't be able to win a majority at the next general election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    The contradiction - and possible flaw with the tip - in the article is that the more likely a 2023 election the more likely Starmer doesn’t make it to 2024.

    I might be misunderstanding you, but what is the contradiction of this? I agree that an early election is a risk for Starmer, particularly because one is more likely if the Tories are in a strong position. But I'm not advising for a bet on an early election, so I don't see what this contradicts? Unless you just mean 'The risk' when you say 'The contradiction' and I'm reading too much into your word choice.
    I think your logic is sound. An election in 2024 is most likely in my opinion.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,242

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
    My opinion on Scottish independence is that most people do not have one.
    Therefore an opinion.
    Good to have someone on who’s able to speak for most people, though ‘am I bovvered’ isn’t always the most convincing argument for not being bothered.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Foxy said:

    On topic 😀

    I am rather enjoying @Quincel Saturday headers, particularly with their emphasis on political betting!

    I agree that Starmer is very likely to fight the next election. The problem is that election may well be prior to 2024, and instant resignation of unsuccessful leaders after elections has become the norm. Personally, I think this regrettable as parties need some time to reflect before choosing a new leader. There is no need for hasty choices.

    On the one hand Starmer is wooden and unable to clearly communicate any vision for the party or country, and his flat-lining polls evidence that. This makes him unlikely to win enough seats to be next PM. In the less likely situation where the Tories lose their majority though, that lack of ideology and blank canvas is ideal for forming a coalition.

    I think that Starmer would be a far better PM than he is as Leader of the Opposition. Labour could have done far better though.

    Many thanks for this! I am trying to make a specific tip every week, though that's not going to be possible forever. I also agree this is much less safe than my normal bets, my natural 'sweet spot' is probably 1/2 bets which I think are more like 80% likely to win. But at longer than evens I do think it is value. There's probably a safer, but lower return, combo of backing Starmer to survive to 2024 and laying next election in 2024 at around 1/2 on Betfair/Smarkets.

    Absolutely agree that if Starmer loses an election in 2023 it is very unlikely he'll be leader for more than a couple of weeks. There's always a small chance he'd remain during the leadership election, which might drag from an autumn election to early 2024 - but he'd probably step down within days and a caretaker leader handle that phase.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,607

    Good, persuasive article Pip.

    My gut feeling is that the Conservatives are going to lose those 40-50 seats you mention.

    Labour really ought to have large VI leads in England at this stage in the electoral cycle, but perhaps the combined effect of the three megashocks - IndyRefs 2014-present, Brexit 2016-present and Covid19 pandemic 2019-present - have created an English immune response to Labour?

    Labour, perhaps unfairly, are widely blamed for the first (eg Johnson calling devolution a "disaster" and Tony Blair's "biggest mistake"); made utter fools of themselves during the second; and have been mute bystanders to the third.

    England has been rejected, felt hurt and sore, turned her back on the world and sulked. The Conservatives put their arms round that nation and comforted and reassured, telling her don’t mind those ungrateful Caledonians, we’ll fix them good and proper; we’ll kick out those dodgy foreigners; and we are the best in the world at fighting foreign pests. All unmitigated nonsense, but England has totally lost the plot in the last decade and the Tories have been their comfort blanket during the mental breakdown.

    But the Tory cure has been much more harmful than the three diseases of rebellious Scots, repulsive Poles and rampaging Chinese virus. The time will come, and probably quite soon, when the English are going to realise that the blanket is no longer comforting them but smothering them.

    I doubt the average English voter gives a toss about Scotland one way or the other. Maybe that should be the rationale for Scottish independence, rather than what looks like a paranoid inferiority complex. We like the Scots but in a sentimental, biscuit tin, Monarch of the Glen way. Perhaps Nicola could use this as the SNP's new slogan: England doesn't know; England doesn't care.
    And yet as we see on here, day in day out, opinions on Scottish Indy are like arseholes, everyone appears to have one. Even you..
    My opinion on Scottish independence is that most people do not have one.
    Perhaps true South of the border, less so north of it!
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 86
    Great article but I don't think the 4 year rationale works for this election cycle. To serve a four year term the Tories would need to go to the country in December again which I can't see anyone wanting. Surely they'd roll it over to the spring of 2024.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    Mr. xP, the Upper House of the UK cannot propose legislation

    Yes it can
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Scott_xP said:

    Mr. xP, that's a unique and challenging perspective of reality.

    The challenge to reality is the continuing myth that our lives were governed by the "unelected bureaucrats" in Brussels.

    Even now that we are out, BoZo and chums are still blaming their failures on Foreign bogy men.
    and why not.. Blame straight bananas , blame Up your Delors, blame Merkel, Blame von der Lyden, blame Macron.. blame Barnier blame them all because they are all (,not sure Delors is still alive) but blame him.anyway, trying to make our life difficult post Brexit. I supported remain ,but now I say feck the lot of them.
    We are a third country now. The EU has a lot of stringent rules for third countries, set up when we were in the EU, and we were instrumental in setting them up, so we are probably responsible in even more ways for our own pain. Don't fall for the express/mail hogwash.
    I am not falling for it, i am just expressing the political reality. Truth and politics are not synonymous
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,624
    Scott_xP said:

    geoffw said:

    MD : "Who elected Von Der Leyen?"
    As one of the Elect there was no need for her to be elected.

    Who elected Claire Fox?
    Boris Johnson. He currently holds the position of sole voter for HoL membership.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    Dr. Foxy, the PM is also an MP, and therefore, on that level at least, directly elected.

    Not always
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