New poll for the Daily Mail has Rishi beating Boris as “Best PM” – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Good morningCicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas must be one of the most blinkered comments to appear on here today
As most of you know I support Rishi and am one of the 58% who want him to succeed Boris this year, but I simply believe it is unrealistic largely as Boris wants to be seen leading COP26 in Glasgow and we are still fighting covid
Boris has taken a hit in the polls and his retention of the absurd Williamson, Patel and Jenrick adds to the fact he is unable to make a sensible decision not helped by the fact he always wants to be liked
Remarkably the conservatives still lead in the polls though that could change but the only opposition showing a sign of improvement are the lib dems, mainly in remain areas, and Labour still wallow by some distance from being considered a viable government
As I said last night the IPCC climate report this week outlining the eye watering sums needed to mitigate climate change will make any government have nightmares and I simply consider GE24 could have most any outcome, though it might be GE230 -
Some young whippersnapper on their phone smirking does my head in.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, it's you.TOPPING said:
Oh No! Have they strapped you in to your seat on a 50% capacity train? How awful.Casino_Royale said:Ah, Captain Thermos is here; that makes me nostalgic.
He spends the whole journey up to Waterloo sitting in a quiet carriage whilst noisly screwing and unscrewing his thermos so he can take regular sips of coffee the whole way.
Woe betide you if you are seated within 2-3 rows of him. It drives you mad like a dripping tap.0 -
And woe betide also anyone in the Quiet Carriage who makes any noise whatsoever above 0.01db. They get a firm ticking off.Pro_Rata said:
The silent passive aggressive opprobrium of 20 other commuters is a beautiful thing. In the days of broadsheets woe betide the commuter who didn't know the regulation way to fold a broadsheet.Casino_Royale said:Ah, Captain Thermos is here; that makes me nostalgic.
He spends the whole journey up to Waterloo sitting in a quiet carriage whilst noisly screwing and unscrewing his thermos so he can take regular sips of coffee the whole way.
Woe betide you if you are seated within 2-3 rows of him. It drives you mad like a dripping tap.
I remember when we went to the Olympics with the kids on one of the special advance tickets that got you into London cheaply before 9am. The Peterborough crew didn't like their train invading one little bit.
Not really like that on the Transpennine trains - not so much Northern friendliness, more that it is a much more mixed group of passengers, so never the sense that commuters rule the roost.0 -
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?0 -
Sell LD seats.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?8 -
NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=202 -
There certainly is a substantial Anyone But Johnson vote in both party and country, but there is a lot of projection onto the enigmatic Sunak. Considering his NHS policy is to end covid funding and squeeze recovery monies, I am rather surprised if that is popular.Philip_Thompson said:
Come on Mike, you know full well that is not the question that was asked.MikeSmithson said:
So just 43% of CON voters want Johnson to stay - 57% don't hardly a vote of confidence except for 'Boris fan boys.isam said:The Tory voters opinions (in brackets on the graphic) are nowhere near as bad as the headline figures, and surely that’s where to look if you’re thinking about betting on whether Boris should be replaced? They prefer him to Rishi
If given a hypothetical forced choice between Boris and Rishi then I might say I think Rishi could do a better job, but I still want Boris to stay. For one thing, I don't know if Boris goes if he will definitely be replaced by Rishi or if he could be replaced by someone worse like Williamson (no sniggering in the back).
If you want to know what percentage of CON voters want Boris to stay then ask that question, don't put up a forced choice between him and another Tory and then claim everyone who doesn't choose him wants him to go.0 -
Is an interesting scenario and far from a long shot. Even during the Cameron years when I was a full fat Cons supporter and activist I did wonder why they couldn't find just one bright northern, state-educated lass/lad to appoint to the No.10 policy unit rather than yet another OE.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
I think where you may well be right is the punters (ie us voters) may not want to choose the sensible, navy blue-coloured deck chair rather than the brightly-coloured one if the whole ship is going down.
The Cons need to appeal to me (I am one of those you correctly identify as most critical of this shambles government having voted for them in 2019).
However, I don't know what Lab stands for. That is always the case with an opposition - don't lay out your policies until polling day minus two weeks. But I would really like something to be getting on with. Plus Lab remains riddled with people I could never vote for.
As for the LDs? Again, tell me something about where you see the UK in five years time and I'll ponder.
Neither Lab nor the LDs have done this so we are stuck with the Cons.4 -
I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.CarlottaVance said:NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
Reality has turned out differently:
A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.
Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html0 -
Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?2
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The other thing is that the things Rishi is probably best known for (furlough and half-price food) are probably out-of-character for most of his political instincts (which look like Thatcherism without the restraints that come from the experience of growing up in Grantham before the War).Foxy said:The polling on Sunak is bizarre in the header. He leads Johnson even in areas of policy where he has expressed no particular view. It looks like projection to me. Also that there are loads of people that really loathe Johnson, which is quite a motivator to GOTV.
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Then what on earth are his lawyers playing at?DavidL said:
I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.StuartDickson said:‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’
… Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.
https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html
This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.
Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.
A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.
Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.
This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.
Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
- “Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.”
If what you say is correct then his ridiculous assertion will achieve only one thing: dragging the whole royal family through the cesspool he is wallowing in.
As I said at the top: this strikes me as being profoundly unwise.
(Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)0 -
As @Philip_Thompson points out, that’s not true. Even if your misread of the question asked were correct, the don’t knows mean it’s not 57%, but 39%MikeSmithson said:
So just 43% of CON voters want Johnson to stay - 57% don't hardly a vote of confidence except for 'Boris fan boys.isam said:The Tory voters opinions (in brackets on the graphic) are nowhere near as bad as the headline figures, and surely that’s where to look if you’re thinking about betting on whether Boris should be replaced? They prefer him to Rishi
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You have to isolate for 5 days in Italy if arriving from the UK, so best to do Greece first and dodge the isolation. From an Italian colleague, who is going back to visit her folks, via Greece.MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
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But this has all come about because Johnson wants to fire "a popular and apparantly competent Chancellor", which is certainly not an indication of "strong government" or " a well done to Boris".DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.0 -
Yeah we're going Italy directly from Greece to avoid their idiotic 5 day quarantine.Foxy said:
You have to isolate for 5 days in Italy if arriving from the UK, so best to do Greece first and dodge the isolation. From an Italian colleague, who is going back to visit her folks, via Greece.MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
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The Tories will buy them...or at least they did in 2015.MaxPB said:
Sell LD seats.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?1 -
Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?0 -
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.0 -
That is usually a golden rule of GE betting, but I have my doubts this time. As Cicero says, Davey has gravitas. If S England gets really fed up with Johnson then Davey looks like a safe custodian of their votes.MaxPB said:
Sell LD seats.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?
If the Lib Dems can’t make hay while the sun is shining, when are they going to do it?0 -
BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371
Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.0 -
All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.
When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.0 -
No. I used to be DecrepitJohnL and after the great whatever-it-was pb infrastructure move, added an er to become @DecrepiterJohnL. John Loony was an OMRLP activist and pb's expert on the kremlinology of left-wing splinter groups.StuartDickson said:
(Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)0 -
They will pop up. Bookies seem to often remove markets at nighttime. I suppose the traders don’t want to risk an unpleasant shock when they switch on their computers.Quincel said:
Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?0 -
Unless he follows the US stated approach to continue to hose money for several more years.Sandpit said:
All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.
When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.0 -
Those boys don't work for peanuts, you know.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371
Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.3 -
He had defected to the Conservatives last I heard.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No. I used to be DecrepitJohnL and after the great whatever-it-was pb infrastructure move, added an er to become @DecrepiterJohnL. John Loony was an OMRLP activist and pb's expert on the kremlinology of left-wing splinter groups.StuartDickson said:
(Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)
Ta for explanation 😊0 -
Splitter groups, shurely?DecrepiterJohnL said:
No. I used to be DecrepitJohnL and after the great whatever-it-was pb infrastructure move, added an er to become @DecrepiterJohnL. John Loony was an OMRLP activist and pb's expert on the kremlinology of left-wing splinter groups.StuartDickson said:
(Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)
I miss JohnLoony. His posts were always good value.3 -
Boris has, IMO, a bigger problem amongst, Tory MPs, Tory members and (legacy) Tory voters, than is fully appreciated outside of the party.
Probably not far off being enough traditional right wing Tory MPs to get a confidence vote, but his problems are wider than in the PCP because of a combination of:
- being too cautious on exiting lockdown
- the distaste for road closures and cycle lanes
- the cost of green policies
- the shift away from traditional fiscal Conservatism
Rishi has also been doing virtual appearances with constituencies - the Zoom equivalent of the rubber chicken circuit - and is seen as the heir apparent.
This poll doesn't surprise me.
3 -
If the over/under is anywhere around 40 seats that's very easy money IMO. Davey just looks like nothing. He is a gaping vacuum of ideas like Starmer. I wish it were otherwise. If Southern England gets sick of Boris then Boris will get booted. Even if he doesn't the Lib Dems don't have the bandwidth to fight 100 bye election campaigns simultaneously.StuartDickson said:
That is usually a golden rule of GE betting, but I have my doubts this time. As Cicero says, Davey has gravitas. If S England gets really fed up with Johnson then Davey looks like a safe custodian of their votes.MaxPB said:
Sell LD seats.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?
If the Lib Dems can’t make hay while the sun is shining, when are they going to do it?2 -
SAS?FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371
Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.0 -
A lot of the other employment in Hereford would also be in quite well paid public sector jobs - medicine, education, admin - providing services to the surrounding area. There aren’t many lower paid jobs to balance them in the city itself so I’m guessing that has a distorting effect too.tlg86 said:
SAS?FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371
Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.
Edit - incidentally if they dropped the ‘city’ requirement I would bet the most affordable place to live would be Llangefni in Anglesey. Pretty much all the jobs there are local council jobs on national pay scales but I doubt if house prices are especially high given the island as a whole has an average wage of around 55% of the UK average.0 -
Same boat.Casino_Royale said:Either this is a great time to lay Rishi, or I should really stop laying Rishi.
0 -
Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
0 -
Ok thanks, it's BA and there's nothing about any LFT written. It just says have proof of vaccination.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Didn't know about that three days before returning test, I guess I better look for a place that does them in Puglia. Thanks.0 -
I certainly expect the Lib Dems to make some hay in Southern England, but more in the region of a dozen new seats than 30. 40.5 is way too high.StuartDickson said:
That is usually a golden rule of GE betting, but I have my doubts this time. As Cicero says, Davey has gravitas. If S England gets really fed up with Johnson then Davey looks like a safe custodian of their votes.MaxPB said:
Sell LD seats.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?
If the Lib Dems can’t make hay while the sun is shining, when are they going to do it?2 -
If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.Sandpit said:
All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.
When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.0 -
Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
0 -
You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.0 -
The current vaccines don't, I imagine work is underway to make a better vaccine which doesgeoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
1 -
Or a combination of vaccine and other treatment therapy.NerysHughes said:
The current vaccines don't, I imagine work is underway to make a better vaccine which doesgeoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
1 -
I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.DavidL said:
I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.DecrepiterJohnL said:
How would Scottish courts have handled it? And what is the age of consent in Scotland? Remember the victim here was 17 at the time of the incidents, which have been denied (although it might be that some denials at least focussed on the under-age part). Can you think of any recent cases in Scotland involving alleged sexual abuse by men in powerful positions?StuartDickson said:‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’
… Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.
https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html
This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.
Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.
A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.
Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.
Doubtless some conspiracy theorists will be disappointed no MI6 assassins are sent to Australia to silence the accuser.
ETA the Mail doubts Andrew has immunity anyway, not being the Queen.
This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.
Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj
Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.
I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
1 -
Yep good point PLFs out and back.Stocky said:
You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.0 -
The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.MattW said:Morning all. Picking my way through the threads
So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?StuartDickson said:Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.
‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
- Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption
… Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”
… Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent
How embarrassing for them.
Internationalist?
Sorry - that's just funny.
As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in.0 -
"Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."another_richard said:
I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.CarlottaVance said:NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
Reality has turned out differently:
A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.
Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html1 -
Perspective/clarification:geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
To provide some wider context to the recent declarations by Andrew Pollard, JCVI chair, I'm retweeting a thread I wrote a few weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1425055618570850304?s=201 -
Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:TOPPING said:
Yep good point PLFs out and back.Stocky said:
You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/1 -
Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....1
-
Surely this is "Lockdown forever" territory?Mortimer said:
Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
0 -
Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.kinabalu said:
"Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."another_richard said:
I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.CarlottaVance said:NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
Reality has turned out differently:
A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.
Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html1 -
This struck me:CarlottaVance said:
Perspective/clarification:geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
To provide some wider context to the recent declarations by Andrew Pollard, JCVI chair, I'm retweeting a thread I wrote a few weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1425055618570850304?s=20
It is not so much anymore a 'duty to others' to get vaccinated but a protection for oneself. There won't be any 'herd immunity wall' to hide behind.
2 -
Even if one treats the pandemic like a war, with a decades-long repayment schedule, there is going to be a reckoning soon.Mortimer said:
If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.Sandpit said:
All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.
When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
The sharp bounce-back is already causing supply and logistics issues, which will quickly turn into inflation. Raw UK GDP numbers are going to be short of the pre-pandemic levels for a while, due to a decline in population and increased working from home, even if it results in quality of life increases.
For all the talk of environmentalism in recent days, most of the proposals come with a masssive cost attached, which is going to be very difficult to sell politically without huge subsidies, and at the same time loss of revenue from things like fuel duties.0 -
Two ways of playing it, I guess.Mortimer said:
If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.Sandpit said:
All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.
When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
One is to try and take over now, and do different things to BoJo (what?) in the hope of it coming good by 2023/4.
The other is to let Boris sit there, sucking up the hate for a couple more years, take over as the new broom six months before the next election.
Depends how much you think Sunakism will be popular, and how much he's a blank page with a good Insta game.0 -
Self-selection bias.Stocky said:
Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.kinabalu said:
"Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."another_richard said:
I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.CarlottaVance said:NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
Reality has turned out differently:
A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.
Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
Any parents paying fees almost certainly care a lot about their kids education.
While that will be true for many state school parents, it will not by any means be true for all or as many.2 -
.
That's not really a surprise, given what we already knew about the common cold coronaviruses.geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
Similarly to flu, it's possible that the elderly/vulnerable will be offered annual vaccinations (though the rates of mutation of the two types of virus are rather different.)
But this is the first time we've ever done such comprehensive mass population wide testing for a respiratory virus, so making comparisons isn't that easy.0 -
Davey doesn't have gravitas - at least not gravitas that we can easily observe. The LibDems are a voiceless party, kept out of the spotlight watching the multiple Tory and Labour factions fight it out plus the Sturgeon vs Salmond circus as a distraction.
I voted for Davey as leader partly because he is authentic and sincere and partly because he wasn't batshit crazy like Layla Moran.
ALL the national parties suffer from a lack of talent. Whilst Sunak is polling well its because he isn't the Clown and has a sensational PR machine to ramp him. If we put him on the spot and say "whats your plan" he will have to triangulate - what Tories want, what red wall Tory voters need, what post Covid & post-Brexit we can afford. He will disappoint all groups.
That is the politicians curse at the moment. There is no consensus (even amongst Brexiteers), there is no money, there is little talent.3 -
They don’t exist, I saw them on oddschecker ages ago but they’re not on the PP site. I think they’ve been left up from the 2019 GE.Quincel said:
Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?1 -
The immediate implied existential threat isn't quite the same.Stocky said:
Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.kinabalu said:
"Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."another_richard said:
I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.CarlottaVance said:NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
Reality has turned out differently:
A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.
Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html2 -
The key problem in private schools won’t on the whole have been parental pressure, it will be that the candidates had much more feedback on their assessed work so their evidence file was effectively coached into them.Philip_Thompson said:
Self-selection bias.Stocky said:
Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.kinabalu said:
"Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."another_richard said:
I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.CarlottaVance said:NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years
SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
Reality has turned out differently:
A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.
Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
Any parents paying fees almost certainly care a lot about their kids education.
While that will be true for many state school parents, it will not by any means be true for all or as many.
And that would be the problem with having solely teacher assessed grades going forward, which is why I’m not in favour of them for all I think the assessment system is a farce.6 -
I mean sure, thats probably how those who are a) perennially frit and or b) wanting to control the populace will use it - but the number of people in category a) is rapidly diminishing, and those in b) don't even have the Celtic fringe in which to take solace now.Malmesbury said:
Surely this is "Lockdown forever" territory?Mortimer said:
Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
The rest of us are back to normal. Haven't worn a mask in over a week (since back from Wales). It is an absolute joy.
0 -
You seem obsessive about the "Anti Boris Agenda". Is your opinion that the whole thing is made up by a hostile press? Unless you are saying this poll and all the other polls are fraudulent then there are a solid group of people - many of whom are Tories, some of whom post on PB - who are part of this "Anti Boris Agenda".squareroot2 said:Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....
0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.
Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.2 -
-
This is you.squareroot2 said:Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....
6 -
the gift that keeps on giving
Ex-Rangers executive Charles Green wins over £6m from Lord Advocate in malicious club fraud prosecution
Details of the settlement came as an eight day hearing to judge the amount of damages was about to take place.
Garry Borland QC for Mr Green said the settlement from Lord Advocate James Wolffe came overnight and that the former Rangers executive was "content to accept it".
He said settlement came in the form of a judicial tender in the amount of £6,393,046 plus Mr Green's legal costs.
It emerged during an earlier hearing that Police Scotland were no longer being sued as part of the action brought by Mr Green. No reasons were given as to why this was the case.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19503046.ex-rangers-executive-charles-green-wins-6m-lord-advocate-malicious-club-fraud-prosecution/
PS: Last two guys got £27M between them , looks like the £100M estimate may well be accurate. Conveyor belt of them making a fortune on the incompetence of the Crown Office. Luckily Scotland is rich and can afford all this largesse along with other payouts by this mob and Government attempted stitch ups.1 -
I've said before that masks plus glasses plus hearing aids are among the most difficult things to untangle in use.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.
Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.2 -
Whatever your politics or perspectives, finances are in a mess and can't just bounce back. Covid is a long-term cost which has exacerbated long-term structural problems in the economy. Add in the supply restrictions and higher costs of short to medium term trade post-Brexit and inflation is a friend we will get to know well.Sandpit said:
Even if one treats the pandemic like a war, with a decades-long repayment schedule, there is going to be a reckoning soon.Mortimer said:
If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.Sandpit said:
All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.DavidL said:Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.
Williamson, not so much.
When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
The sharp bounce-back is already causing supply and logistics issues, which will quickly turn into inflation. Raw UK GDP numbers are going to be short of the pre-pandemic levels for a while, due to a decline in population and increased working from home, even if it results in quality of life increases.
For all the talk of environmentalism in recent days, most of the proposals come with a masssive cost attached, which is going to be very difficult to sell politically without huge subsidies, and at the same time loss of revenue from things like fuel duties.
I do see opportunity with the environment, but thanks to political posturing deliberately hardening attitudes all people want to know is what it costs, not what benefits does it brings. In the past this country used to lead the world in various fields, then we had a period of shit management and communist unions and replaced industry with bankism.
We could lead the world with renewable technologies. We have the scientific and manufacturing skills, we have abundant clean energy we can harness as we perfect tidal and wind tech, and then we can sell globally as world leaders. It means national commitment and investment of the kind that absolutely no Tory PM will commit to because all anyone wants to know is what it costs not what it delivers.5 -
Wasn't SeanT / Leon off to Greece yesterday and he didn't need a test, just proof of vaccination.MaxPB said:
Ok thanks, it's BA and there's nothing about any LFT written. It just says have proof of vaccination.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Didn't know about that three days before returning test, I guess I better look for a place that does them in Puglia. Thanks.0 -
The point is the tories are still well clear in the polls, you would never know this given the threads on this site. This is some achievemment nearly 12 years into Government and Boris must take some credit for that.RochdalePioneers said:
You seem obsessive about the "Anti Boris Agenda". Is your opinion that the whole thing is made up by a hostile press? Unless you are saying this poll and all the other polls are fraudulent then there are a solid group of people - many of whom are Tories, some of whom post on PB - who are part of this "Anti Boris Agenda".squareroot2 said:Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....
I really don't know what OGH will do if the Boris led Tories win the next GE.2 -
Sunak has a tough choice to make.RochdalePioneers said:Davey doesn't have gravitas - at least not gravitas that we can easily observe. The LibDems are a voiceless party, kept out of the spotlight watching the multiple Tory and Labour factions fight it out plus the Sturgeon vs Salmond circus as a distraction.
I voted for Davey as leader partly because he is authentic and sincere and partly because he wasn't batshit crazy like Layla Moran.
ALL the national parties suffer from a lack of talent. Whilst Sunak is polling well its because he isn't the Clown and has a sensational PR machine to ramp him. If we put him on the spot and say "whats your plan" he will have to triangulate - what Tories want, what red wall Tory voters need, what post Covid & post-Brexit we can afford. He will disappoint all groups.
That is the politicians curse at the moment. There is no consensus (even amongst Brexiteers), there is no money, there is little talent.
Waiting for Boris to self immolate and inherit the leadership is probably his best option, but if that takes too long the Chancellor could easily be as unpopular as the PM, given the tough spending choices to come.
I guess it depends on how much of a difference he believes he might make were he in charge sooner. Or how much he believes his own publicity.3 -
Whats the deal with masks in Europe (specifically Italy, France and Greece)? And vax passes? I don't fancy going anywhere that requires either at the moment.Stocky said:
Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:TOPPING said:
Yep good point PLFs out and back.Stocky said:
You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/
0 -
King Cole, you have my sympathy with that. I've got glasses and usually wear a hat (which I'll ditch today) and that's bad enough.1
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I’ll be wearing one tomorrow for a doctor‘s appointment.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.
Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.
That’s the only time I will have worn one in the last three weeks, and nobody has objected.
Morrison’s yesterday about 50% were wearing masks, but only one staff member was.0 -
Was he not getting dropped off at Mont Blanceek said:
Wasn't SeanT / Leon off to Greece yesterday and he didn't need a test, just proof of vaccination.MaxPB said:
Ok thanks, it's BA and there's nothing about any LFT written. It just says have proof of vaccination.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Didn't know about that three days before returning test, I guess I better look for a place that does them in Puglia. Thanks.2 -
Well said - there's just no way to separately assess Sunak on some of those points do it's a classic proxy answer. Still notable, to a degree.Foxy said:The polling on Sunak is bizarre in the header. He leads Johnson even in areas of policy where he has expressed no particular view. It looks like projection to me. Also that there are loads of people that really loathe Johnson, which is quite a motivator to GOTV.
0 -
And the crucial point is that testing for cases is becoming increasingly irrelevant in that situation.geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
2 -
An upstart he appointed to be a yes man when the last one stood up to another guy he'll now pretend not to know because he keeps slagging off Boris's wife.TOPPING said:On topic.
Poor old Boris all he ever wanted to do was be PM without a care in the world and having saved theworldUK from the EU and then the vaccine some beastly upstart seems to be challenging for his position.0 -
I dont wear gloves.. there is no feeling if you wear them.Dura_Ace said:
This is you.squareroot2 said:Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....
9 -
I'm sure iSAGE will enlighten us shortly.Malmesbury said:
Surely this is "Lockdown forever" territory?Mortimer said:
Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.geoffw said:Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
0 -
I was looking to go to both myself, do report back on progress!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
0 -
Went to Portugal and Menorca recently. In both, masks on public transport and expected in shops (but not really enforced) - otherwise optional and not much evidence of mask-wearing when out and about. Overall you see more masks in the UK so I don't see how this can be a reason to not travel abroad.Mortimer said:
Whats the deal with masks in Europe (specifically Italy, France and Greece)? And vax passes? I don't fancy going anywhere that requires either at the moment.Stocky said:
Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:TOPPING said:
Yep good point PLFs out and back.Stocky said:
You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.TOPPING said:
Boy did you miss a thread yesterday!MaxPB said:Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.
You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.
No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/0 -
Fraudulent? No.RochdalePioneers said:
You seem obsessive about the "Anti Boris Agenda". Is your opinion that the whole thing is made up by a hostile press? Unless you are saying this poll and all the other polls are fraudulent then there are a solid group of people - many of whom are Tories, some of whom post on PB - who are part of this "Anti Boris Agenda".squareroot2 said:Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....
Farcical? Yes absolutely.
11 years into the Tory PM's being in Downing Street and the only way to spin a negative story against the popular Tory PM, is to pit him against his even more popular Chancellor.
We all know that if forced choice polls etc were putting Starmer ahead of Boris in the polls then that is what would be dominating the headers, but infuriatingly for some that is not the case. So hence we get barrel scraping by elements of the media like this farcical poll.
At the next election it is not going to be Boris versus Sunak in the polls. They're in the same team. Its like being so desperate for an anti-Man City story that you posit why Gabriel Jesus being in form is bad news for Raheem Sterling.1 -
BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570
Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.2 -
The traditional view of a business which is losing money hand over fist and seems to prosper is that there's dodgy money going in.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570
Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.
Not, of course, saying that's the case here.2 -
That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570
Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.0 -
I saw what you did thereRochdalePioneers said:
The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.MattW said:Morning all. Picking my way through the threads
So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?StuartDickson said:Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.
‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
- Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption
… Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”
… Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent
How embarrassing for them.
Internationalist?
Sorry - that's just funny.
As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in. . BFB are wibbling about Kent being a "permanent lorry park", and I pointed out they are telling fairy stories.
That is a little different from "queues".
Do you have evidence that seriously long queues are occurring "most days" at Dover, now that trade is roughly back to previous levels - which would be BFB being 'close to reality'? Where are these queues?
0 -
Herd immunity is still a useful idea in the COVID context, even if a continuously renewable, stable, lifelong herd immunity like is possible for measles is not what we're looking at.
I still think this wave gets us pretty close to a point-in-time herd immunity by November, where the partial immunity of vaccination and the fuller immunity of infection combine to approach the magic number and make spread hard.
The virus is also getting diminishing returns from greater infectiousness. A variant that takes, say, R0 7 to R0 8 is not only stretching for harder, rarer genetic optimisations, but it then only moves the herd immunity level by a couple of percent. More infectious variants will not outcompete by much and then not for long.
By contrast R 2.5 to R 3.5 in the midst of lockdown was an easy evolution and a no brainer advantage to the virus.
The virus will have to switch, in the UK, to immune escape variants - causing mild but spreadable disease in already immune people. That in itself is the transition from pandemic to seasonal, endemic disease - in the UK at least, and approaching point herd immunity is the trigger point for that.
That's also the point when the focus must switch full force to ending the pandemic phase in the rest of the world.0 -
Hearing aids are the worst, I think.OldKingCole said:
I've said before that masks plus glasses plus hearing aids are among the most difficult things to untangle in use.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.
Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.
My mother keeps losing hers when she demasks.3 -
It is not obvious to me that Mr Sunak, as PM, could escape the consequences of covid economic policy, given how careful he and his team were to publicise his role as CoE enunciating that very policy during the pandemic (for instance, furlough and EOTHO).Nigelb said:
Sunak has a tough choice to make.RochdalePioneers said:Davey doesn't have gravitas - at least not gravitas that we can easily observe. The LibDems are a voiceless party, kept out of the spotlight watching the multiple Tory and Labour factions fight it out plus the Sturgeon vs Salmond circus as a distraction.
I voted for Davey as leader partly because he is authentic and sincere and partly because he wasn't batshit crazy like Layla Moran.
ALL the national parties suffer from a lack of talent. Whilst Sunak is polling well its because he isn't the Clown and has a sensational PR machine to ramp him. If we put him on the spot and say "whats your plan" he will have to triangulate - what Tories want, what red wall Tory voters need, what post Covid & post-Brexit we can afford. He will disappoint all groups.
That is the politicians curse at the moment. There is no consensus (even amongst Brexiteers), there is no money, there is little talent.
Waiting for Boris to self immolate and inherit the leadership is probably his best option, but if that takes too long the Chancellor could easily be as unpopular as the PM, given the tough spending choices to come.
I guess it depends on how much of a difference he believes he might make were he in charge sooner. Or how much he believes his own publicity.
Also, displacing Mr Johnson (even without overtly stabbing him in the back metaphorically speaking) would upset a lot of people in the Tory Party and the country as a whole.0 -
No customs controls inwards, yet, mind. So Brsexit is not fully implemented.MattW said:
I saw what you did there. BFB are wibbling about Kent being a "permanent lorry park", and I pointed out they are telling fairy stories.RochdalePioneers said:
The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.MattW said:Morning all. Picking my way through the threads
So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?StuartDickson said:Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.
‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
- Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption
… Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”
… Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent
How embarrassing for them.
Internationalist?
Sorry - that's just funny.
As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in.
That is a little different from "queues".
Do you have evidence that seriously long queues are occurring "most days" at Dover, now that trade is roughly back to previous levels - which would be BFB being 'close to reality'? Where are these queues?0 -
They were never losing money at insane amounts, they just weren't making money on paper, because they reinvested the profits they were making on physical expansion...also remember AWS is the massive money maker.Philip_Thompson said:
That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570
Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.
My understanding with the food delivery business is barrier to entry is really low and they need to spend insane amounts on advertising to drive business to them rather than the 27 other options. And even if they win the game to become the dominant player, there isn't any more to squeeze out of the restaurants or riders....there is no extra efficiency to be had in the way Amazon introduced robots into the warehouses....and there is an upper bound on how much you can charge before people just get in their car and drive themselves to get it.1 -
@MaxPB
Re your post earlier, you need a negative Covid test (PCR or LFT) taken within 72 hours of your return to the UK.
You can seek a local provider. But what we have done twice - and it has worked perfectly - is ordered little LFT test packs before we left UK and popped them in suitcase. You then organise video session (timed just within 72 hours of your return to UK) with a rep from the provider (Qured) who talks you through the test and watches you do it properly. The call ends and you are instructed to wait 15 minutes for the result to be revealed on the white testing thingy and you then photograph it and send it to Qured. 30 mins or so later you get a certificate of result which is what you need before returning to the UK. It costs about £40 quid. I think this is much easier and more time-efficient than seeking a local provider. Make sure you have good wifi for the video session obvs.2 -
Weren't these the ones that vanished when it was pointed out on PB, and someone had been "nibbling at it"?isam said:
They don’t exist, I saw them on oddschecker ages ago but they’re not on the PP site. I think they’ve been left up from the 2019 GE.Quincel said:
Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.StuartDickson said:
Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.Cicero said:The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.
In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.
Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.
Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.
Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.
The pendulum will be really swinging by then.
Mid-point PP prices:
Con seats 329.5
Lab seats 206.5
SNP seats 47.5
LD seats 40.5
Where’s the value Cicero?0 -
Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570
Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.
I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.
These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.0 -
Amazon were reinvesting their profits in developing the business, rather than returning it to shareholders.Philip_Thompson said:
That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570
Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.
These guys don’t have profits, they have massive losses.0 -
Its sensible to have provisions to deal with traffic issues not because of simply Brexit, but because of the age old rule that the French are revolting. How often do French strikes cause traffic mayhem?MattW said:
I saw what you did thereRochdalePioneers said:
The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.MattW said:Morning all. Picking my way through the threads
So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?StuartDickson said:Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.
‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
- Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption
… Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”
… Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent
How embarrassing for them.
Internationalist?
Sorry - that's just funny.
As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in. . BFB are wibbling about Kent being a "permanent lorry park", and I pointed out they are telling fairy stories.
That is a little different from "queues".
Do you have evidence that seriously long queues are occurring "most days" at Dover, now that trade is roughly back to previous levels - which would be BFB being 'close to reality'? Where are these queues?
It makes sense to have a Plan B ready to put into place at a moment's notice whenever the French cause disruption.0 -
Completely off-topic (though half-on for a few threads back).
First proper day back in office (as in actually in office working, not just for a catch-up) since March 2019. Also first day cycling in since we moved in 2016. 15.1 miles in 1 hour 5 minutes, very pleased with that. I thought I'd manage a steady 10mph at least so was working on up to 90 minutes, actually 13.9 average. On my wife's Halfords hybrid too as the drive train on my bike needs some serious TLC. The journey used to take 45-50 minutes at least by car.
Unfortunately, the showers that I used sometimes when I used to cycle from our old house (4 miles each way) have a big 'out of use' label and a locked door, so I need to do some searching. Private office though, so no one else needs to smell me in the meantime, at least.3 -
Our Schools Infection Survey shows #COVID19 infection rates were lower in the summer term of 2021 than in autumn 2020, with infection rates in June 2021 as follows:
primary pupils = 0.27%
secondary pupils = 0.42%
secondary staff = 0.27%
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1425374260067975172?s=200 -
It might be pleasant to interrupt the current trend in anti-Johnson threaders with something about this:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-be-reinstated-as-labour-mp-under-leftwing-challenge-to-starmer
What's going on under the surface of the Labour Party at the moment? Has Starmer won, or is the battle for the party's soul still ongoing?2 -
Colleague's son has a new British u16 67.5 kg squat record, 152.5 Kg.3
