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New poll for the Daily Mail has Rishi beating Boris as “Best PM” – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 3,119



    Is there any evidence of "Johnson's desperation for a [US] trade deal"? It seems to be something that certain people cling to unthinkingly.

    At the time, of course, it was bandied about as one of the great Brexit benefits. But now that Boris's NI antics have left it dead in the water, and everyone realizes it would have been a bit crap for the UK anyway, Boris seems happy to forget all about it.
    I think that's right, though I'm sure Liz Truss would love it. The problems are (a) Biden would need a new fast-track agreement from Congress for it (otherwise it would get niggled to death in clause-by-clause debate), and that won't happen until after the mid-terms, if then (b) the pressure from NGOs over the relatively minor Australian deal has made it clear that the political cost of a US deal would be enormous. I don't think Boris sees any urgent need to pay it.

    What political,cost ? The govt should do what is best for the country not a handful of unaccountable NGOs who get angry on social media.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,608
    edited August 2021



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Because not luke warm...and taste....

    I personally don't use them and plenty of people use them to get McDonalds (which seems particularly bonkers), but the apps really exploded when they started offering delivery from restaurants (not just takeaways), thus you could then get high quality food delivered (rather than having to sit in the restaurant).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,377
    edited August 2021

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj

    Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.

    I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
    If Prince Andrew chooses not to travel to the United States, and he is not extradited, the press articles indicate that he will take a huge financial punishment. Better than sitting in an American prison, but might mummy refuse to pay his bill?
    He's not poor himself. £50m or so I think is the commonly reported number.

    Though I am not sure how a Civil default verdict would be enforced.
    That is a scenario where the UK ambassador to the United States would be called in for a wee chat. During this chat the Good Friday Agreement will gently be slipped in, and Johnson’s desperation for a trade deal, and where Trident is going to be based, and… the list of useful American thumbscrews is endless. Then, as if by magic, the civil default payment will be made.

    Prince Andrew’s name is dirt now, but it is going to get significantly worse, especially among the decision-makers who matter. They just hate being coerced.
    Is the US establishment really going to throw all that on the bonfire just to assist this lady? I suspect many of them would prefer it if her credibility remained shrouded in some doubt.
    The US establishment and the English establishment share a common goal here: they want to put this shitshow to bed. If Andrew defaults on his financial penalty, the story still has legs and could run for decades. Royal scandals have a tendency to take on a life of their own.
    Plenty of the US establishment had a close relationship with Epstein, from Bill Clinton to Bill Gates, not just Prince Andrew.

    Trump of course met him too. They all have an interest in keeping a lid on it
  • Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    And you can't get an Amazon-like monopoly anyway.
    Whatever you think of them as a business, Amazon did bring something new to customers; the ability to browse every book there is. Outside big (university) cities, that possibly didn't exist before. And books fit nicely in the post.

    For takeaway food... It's nice to have home delivery, but it's coming from the same neighborhood places that were there anyway. It can't really come from further away, or the food will go cold. So outside lockdown, there's an implacable competitor of "go and get it yourself", which limits the possibility for enormous profit.
    But it does provide something new to consumers. The ability to browse every style of restaurant, every menu and pick something that you want - you're not limited to just your usual restaurant or whatever menus you got threw the door.

    Plus the competitor of "go get it yourself" is not that strong a competitor. If it was, that's what people would be doing. People are prepared to pay for delivery.
    These are takeways not restaurants. Big difference
    Both are available on the platforms nowadays.

    People are prepared to pay for delivery either way. Getting to the sweet spot may take time, but if people are prepared to pay more for delivery then there is a profit to be made.
    Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that the amount people are prepared to pay for a delivery doesn't exceed the costs of making that delivery, or not by much. Not enough to justify Uber et al as the next Amazon.

    There are businesses to be had in minicabs and food delivery, sure. But they are both inherently local things in a way that Amazon's retail offer isn't.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,101



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Agreed. Plus: supermarket or Cook* (https://www.cookfood.net) ready meals tend to be better than our local indian or chinese takeaways, with better hygiene and food provenance standards, I suspect.

    (*Other providers too probably - but Cook are consistently good.)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561
    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,932



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,101

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Honestly no. Not going to happen. The core Tory party membership is too right-wing, too subconciously bigoted for that to happen imo.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,366

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    £22 @ 76.49 (Betfair), next PM.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj

    Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.

    I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
    If Prince Andrew chooses not to travel to the United States, and he is not extradited, the press articles indicate that he will take a huge financial punishment. Better than sitting in an American prison, but might mummy refuse to pay his bill?
    He's not poor himself. £50m or so I think is the commonly reported number.

    Though I am not sure how a Civil default verdict would be enforced.
    That is a scenario where the UK ambassador to the United States would be called in for a wee chat. During this chat the Good Friday Agreement will gently be slipped in, and Johnson’s desperation for a trade deal, and where Trident is going to be based, and… the list of useful American thumbscrews is endless. Then, as if by magic, the civil default payment will be made.
    Is there any evidence of "Johnson's desperation for a [US] trade deal"? It seems to be something that certain people cling to unthinkingly.
    The only people talking about it, are those who are vociferously opposed and/or see it as a stick with which to beat the PM over EU or Ireland relations.
    I don't think anything would have to be mentioned specifically. A general concern over the 'sad' deterioration in US-UK relations might well be enough.
    On the other hand, if I were Mrs Sacoolas I'd now be making very sure I had another string or two to pull.
    Sacoolas is protected by the US intelligence services and the US diplomatic corps - neither of whom want to see the precedent of "giving up" one of their own.

    To expect Executive Branch to go to war with a substantial chunk of the rest of the Federal Government is an... interesting hope.
    Yes; likely more than enough.
    One problem I see in looking at other countries is that people assume that the government is a single, uniform, united structure.

    So, for example, they were started when Bill Clinton couldn't get a climate deal past the US Senate. Which had voted 98-0, before he went to the summit, that they wouldn't ratify an agreement that didn't include India and China. When he came back with a treaty that didn't include India and China....

    Another interesting one is China. When China performed an anti-satellite weapon test in a relatively high orbit, people started saying all kinds of nonsense. In fact, what happened was that a faction of the Chinese military performed the test without informing the rest of the government about what they were doing and the risks. When the civilian space people in China pointed out to the rest of the government that the test had risked damage to the International Space Station... Well, the faction in the Chinese military got to stand in a corner for a long long time, considering their sins. And they lost all their toys.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,478

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    I'm not even sure that's a good value loser.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Completely off-topic (though half-on for a few threads back).

    First proper day back in office (as in actually in office working, not just for a catch-up) since March 2019. Also first day cycling in since we moved in 2016. 15.1 miles in 1 hour 5 minutes, very pleased with that. I thought I'd manage a steady 10mph at least so was working on up to 90 minutes, actually 13.9 average. On my wife's Halfords hybrid too as the drive train on my bike needs some serious TLC. The journey used to take 45-50 minutes at least by car.

    Unfortunately, the showers that I used sometimes when I used to cycle from our old house (4 miles each way) have a big 'out of use' label and a locked door, so I need to do some searching. Private office though, so no one else needs to smell me in the meantime, at least.

    We've finally been allowed to use more than one toilet cubicle at work now... Quite what the covid reasons for only using one cubicle of four was, I have no idea. We still have nonsense things like the main campus coffee shot having please clean me notices on them for when you leave. I mean the bigger risk is surely sitting opposite each other talking, not the coffee table. Why has the evidence about fomites not translated into better guidance?
    Our printers/copiers have instructions to wipe down before and after use. Wipes not there, of course, but to be obtained from student services (which doubles as a kind of facilities/reception) and is a reasonably busy multi-occupancy office. I decided to pass.
    I've been on campus a lot over the pandemic, partly as I look after key analytical equipment, so i have been increasing frustrated by the lack of logic applied to covid precautions, at a supposedly science/engineering university. We've still go one way routes in buildings that for the most part are virtually empty (its summer, so no U/G students, just some academic staff and researchers). We can now sit and have coffee inside the cafe, but still have to wear masks in the (empty) corridors. Drives me nuts...
    But without the security theatre, you wouldn't be Doing Something.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,608
    edited August 2021
    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    On topic: You do have to wonder what the mechanism is by which Sunak replaces Johnson. Johnson doesn't seem eager to stand down just two years into being PM (and with much of that time taken up by COVID), and challenging a sitting PM who is anything other than staggeringly unpopular seems hella risky.

    I still strongly suspect that Johnson will remain PM until the next election - which he is favourite to win. That final bit is yet another big incentive for him to fight for the role.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,801

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj

    Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.

    I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
    If Prince Andrew chooses not to travel to the United States, and he is not extradited, the press articles indicate that he will take a huge financial punishment. Better than sitting in an American prison, but might mummy refuse to pay his bill?
    He's not poor himself. £50m or so I think is the commonly reported number.

    Though I am not sure how a Civil default verdict would be enforced.
    That is a scenario where the UK ambassador to the United States would be called in for a wee chat. During this chat the Good Friday Agreement will gently be slipped in, and Johnson’s desperation for a trade deal, and where Trident is going to be based, and… the list of useful American thumbscrews is endless. Then, as if by magic, the civil default payment will be made.

    Prince Andrew’s name is dirt now, but it is going to get significantly worse, especially among the decision-makers who matter. They just hate being coerced.
    Is the US establishment really going to throw all that on the bonfire just to assist this lady? I suspect many of them would prefer it if her credibility remained shrouded in some doubt.
    The US establishment and the English establishment share a common goal here: they want to put this shitshow to bed. If Andrew defaults on his financial penalty, the story still has legs and could run for decades. Royal scandals have a tendency to take on a life of their own.
    In your view, does being Scottish exclude you from the establishment?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Honestly no. Not going to happen. The core Tory party membership is too right-wing, too subconciously bigoted for that to happen imo.
    I was a member for years, and I think you are very wrong on that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443
    Quincel said:

    On topic: You do have to wonder what the mechanism is by which Sunak replaces Johnson. Johnson doesn't seem eager to stand down just two years into being PM (and with much of that time taken up by COVID), and challenging a sitting PM who is anything other than staggeringly unpopular seems hella risky.

    I still strongly suspect that Johnson will remain PM until the next election - which he is favourite to win. That final bit is yet another big incentive for him to fight for the role.

    The mechanism is

    - Either Johnson quits
    - Or a stalking horse candidate gets enough votes etc
    - Sunak runs in the election to replace Johnson

    If Sunak makes a direct challenge, historically, he has very little chance of becoming leader.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,608
    edited August 2021

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    Quiet - you will awake the Angry Crowd. Who insist that no-one has the time or money to cook.

    Do you cook fresh for every meal? I tend to prepare dishes that last a couple of days, have a selection in the fridge etc....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,119

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Someone picked up the Times this morning!

    (TL:DR, she might be Education Secretary in the forthcoming reshuffle)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561
    edited August 2021
    Quincel said:

    On topic: You do have to wonder what the mechanism is by which Sunak replaces Johnson. Johnson doesn't seem eager to stand down just two years into being PM (and with much of that time taken up by COVID), and challenging a sitting PM who is anything other than staggeringly unpopular seems hella risky.

    I still strongly suspect that Johnson will remain PM until the next election - which he is favourite to win. That final bit is yet another big incentive for him to fight for the role.

    Yeah, there's very little chance of Boris going before the next election, and not much chance of him not remaining PM at that election, given Labour's failure to present itself as a credible alternative. So, in the next leader market, one needs to look not just at who might be best placed as successor today (i.e. Sunak), but who might come up on the inside in the intervening four or five years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,353
    2022 Democratic majority in the Senate is around 4/1 on Betfair.
    Value, or not ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561
    Sandpit said:

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Someone picked up the Times this morning!

    (TL:DR, she might be Education Secretary in the forthcoming reshuffle)
    Yes, that was the prompt, but I've been thinking for a while that she's one of the ones to watch.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,119
    edited August 2021

    Sandpit said:

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Someone picked up the Times this morning!

    (TL:DR, she might be Education Secretary in the forthcoming reshuffle)
    Yes, that was the prompt, but I've been thinking for a while that she's one of the ones to watch.
    Definitely one to watch, although more likely to be the leader after next, if the vacancy comes up soon.

    She’s been doing a very good job in the Equalities role.

    50 is a fair price, 25 is too short though.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561
    Sandpit said:

    [snip]
    50 is a fair price, 25 is too short though.

    Yes, agreed.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,464

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    How sad are bookmakers in this Country. Im sure they would let you place £1000 on their rigged blackjack game.
  • Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    How sad are bookmakers in this Country. Im sure they would let you place £1000 on their rigged blackjack game.
    There's a reason for that...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    Nigelb said:

    2022 Democratic majority in the Senate is around 4/1 on Betfair.
    Value, or not ?

    It's an interesting one: The Senate map is actually quite favourable to them, but it's a mid-term election 6 years after a pretty good one (popular vote wise) for them.

    Dems start on 50.5 (for betting purposes), and would fancy a shot at:

    - Pennslyvania
    - Wisconsin
    - North Carolina (a bit tougher)
    - Florida (a fair bit tougher)

    GOP start on 49.5 (for betting purposes) and will fancy their chances at:

    - Arizona (a fair bit tougher, unless they can pass some crazy voter suppression laws)
    - Georgia (could go either way, GOP have already passed voter suppression laws)
    - Nevada (a bit tough given demographics, but winnable)
    - New Hampshire (GOP should be pretty close but many a false dawn for them here of late)

    So it really could go either way. 4/1 probably is value, assuming that Sanders/King count as Democrat for betting purposes.
  • Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Well that depends if it is Mrs U or myself in charge...Mrs U, basically everything is from scratch scratch.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,581
    Sandpit said:

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Someone picked up the Times this morning!

    (TL:DR, she might be Education Secretary in the forthcoming reshuffle)
    Well they certainly need someone who can sit on a toilet the right way around.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    Quincel said:

    On topic: You do have to wonder what the mechanism is by which Sunak replaces Johnson. Johnson doesn't seem eager to stand down just two years into being PM (and with much of that time taken up by COVID), and challenging a sitting PM who is anything other than staggeringly unpopular seems hella risky.

    I still strongly suspect that Johnson will remain PM until the next election - which he is favourite to win. That final bit is yet another big incentive for him to fight for the role.

    The mechanism is

    - Either Johnson quits
    - Or a stalking horse candidate gets enough votes etc
    - Sunak runs in the election to replace Johnson

    If Sunak makes a direct challenge, historically, he has very little chance of becoming leader.
    OK, to be more precise: How likely is each mechanism? Johnson has no reason to quit and every reason to stay, Tory party rules no longer permit stalking horse candidates, and as you say a direct challenge is very unlikely to work.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561
    Quincel said:


    So it really could go either way. 4/1 probably is value, assuming that Sanders/King count as Democrat for betting purposes.

    Caution! They don't, on Betfair:

    Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,581

    Sandpit said:

    [snip]
    50 is a fair price, 25 is too short though.

    Yes, agreed.
    She's more 'leader after next' material imho.
  • When Dave said lobbying was going to be the next big scandal....he obviously missed the bit out about him being front and centre.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9882817/David-Cameron-landed-genomics-giant-Illumina-123m-contract-writing-Hancock.html
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,848
    Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.

    Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
    Yep good point PLFs out and back.
    Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:
    https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/
    Whats the deal with masks in Europe (specifically Italy, France and Greece)? And vax passes? I don't fancy going anywhere that requires either at the moment.

    Went to Portugal and Menorca recently. In both, masks on public transport and expected in shops (but not really enforced) - otherwise optional and not much evidence of mask-wearing when out and about. Overall you see more masks in the UK so I don't see how this can be a reason to not travel abroad.
    To be honest I don't even mind seeing anyone else wearing them (though down here in Dorset I'd say now only 20% of people in shops wearing them, and maybe 35% on trains) - its just the legal compunction. Oh and presumably on the plane too?

    Think I'll stick to England this year.
    That post really surprised me - here in SE Spain mask wearing is pretty much universal unless you're well clear of others outside and very much de rigeur in shops, buses entering bars, restaurants , etc. I've not been in a shop yet where anyone was maskless. To take another example - even in a restaurant the minute you get up for toilet, etc or to leave the mask goes on. It's not enforced as such because everyone does it. Not sure if it's effective in preventing the spread, etc but that is a different issue.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    Quincel said:


    So it really could go either way. 4/1 probably is value, assuming that Sanders/King count as Democrat for betting purposes.

    Caution! They don't, on Betfair:

    Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.
    Interesting. I wouldn't take 4/1 in that case, though given each senate race is a somewhat contingent probability it isn't the worst bet. But Dems needing 3 net gains? I'd want 10/1 at least. It really is close to a perfect result for them.
  • MrEd said:

    Quincel said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.
    Amazon was getting closer to profitability each year though, Deliveroo and Uber Eats (and Uber) are taking bloody ages in actually turning a profit. Amazon made its first profit after 9 years, Uber is already 12 years old.
    Amazon is also, like many of our high tech overlords, operating several more-or-less independent businesses, for instance the bookshop, the platform for other sellers, the cloud computing business and so on. Conglomerates had fallen out of favour in the 80s and 90s when asset-stripping corporate raiders would break them up, yet now they have returned in a new guise.
    Amazon makes its profits on its Cloud and advertising services. Its actual commerce business has low to mid single digit margins.
    Low to single digit margins on billions of revenue still has quite some potential!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,119
    edited August 2021

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Well that depends if it is Mrs U or myself in charge...Mrs U, basically everything is from scratch scratch.
    That sounds familiar! We both married well ;)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:


    So it really could go either way. 4/1 probably is value, assuming that Sanders/King count as Democrat for betting purposes.

    Caution! They don't, on Betfair:

    Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.
    Interesting. I wouldn't take 4/1 in that case, though given each senate race is a somewhat contingent probability it isn't the worst bet. But Dems needing 3 net gains? I'd want 10/1 at least. It really is close to a perfect result for them.
    Yes, 4/1 is too skinny.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,773
    Talking of Deliveroo, I'm happy to say I've never ordered food over the internet, and don't have any plans to do so.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,749



    Is there any evidence of "Johnson's desperation for a [US] trade deal"? It seems to be something that certain people cling to unthinkingly.

    At the time, of course, it was bandied about as one of the great Brexit benefits. But now that Boris's NI antics have left it dead in the water, and everyone realizes it would have been a bit crap for the UK anyway, Boris seems happy to forget all about it.
    I think that's right, though I'm sure Liz Truss would love it. The problems are (a) Biden would need a new fast-track agreement from Congress for it (otherwise it would get niggled to death in clause-by-clause debate), and that won't happen until after the mid-terms, if then (b) the pressure from NGOs over the relatively minor Australian deal has made it clear that the political cost of a US deal would be enormous. I don't think Boris sees any urgent need to pay it.
    Yes, better to have *lots of productive discussions* about a US trade deal, and promise the actual thing after the next election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,119

    When Dave said lobbying was going to be the next big scandal....he obviously missed the bit out about him being front and centre.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9882817/David-Cameron-landed-genomics-giant-Illumina-123m-contract-writing-Hancock.html

    Prophetic words indeed. What on Earth is he thinking? He really doesn’t need the money for which he’s debasing himself.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,848

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Good one - I think it very likely that the Tories will be first to have a black or Asian leader if only to rub the left up!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,353
    MaxPB said:

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    I'm not even sure that's a good value loser.
    Only if it was one of their free bets...
  • Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    And you can't get an Amazon-like monopoly anyway.
    Whatever you think of them as a business, Amazon did bring something new to customers; the ability to browse every book there is. Outside big (university) cities, that possibly didn't exist before. And books fit nicely in the post.

    For takeaway food... It's nice to have home delivery, but it's coming from the same neighborhood places that were there anyway. It can't really come from further away, or the food will go cold. So outside lockdown, there's an implacable competitor of "go and get it yourself", which limits the possibility for enormous profit.
    But it does provide something new to consumers. The ability to browse every style of restaurant, every menu and pick something that you want - you're not limited to just your usual restaurant or whatever menus you got threw the door.

    Plus the competitor of "go get it yourself" is not that strong a competitor. If it was, that's what people would be doing. People are prepared to pay for delivery.
    These are takeways not restaurants. Big difference
    Both are available on the platforms nowadays.

    People are prepared to pay for delivery either way. Getting to the sweet spot may take time, but if people are prepared to pay more for delivery then there is a profit to be made.
    Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that the amount people are prepared to pay for a delivery doesn't exceed the costs of making that delivery, or not by much. Not enough to justify Uber et al as the next Amazon.

    There are businesses to be had in minicabs and food delivery, sure. But they are both inherently local things in a way that Amazon's retail offer isn't.
    How local is local though?

    I've just been on Just Eat to check and there's 157 restaurants that will deliver to me, 40 open right now at before midday on a Wednesday.

    If I was relying on just the takeaways I know about that deliver, I would not have a clue about anything near that many, nor about many that are open to delivery before midday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,923

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Is it puff? No sense in doing otherwise for puff, certainly, at all times. My late mother was a superb baker but always used readymade puff pastry.

    I'm not that great at shortcrust even ... what do you recommend?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    On topic: You do have to wonder what the mechanism is by which Sunak replaces Johnson. Johnson doesn't seem eager to stand down just two years into being PM (and with much of that time taken up by COVID), and challenging a sitting PM who is anything other than staggeringly unpopular seems hella risky.

    I still strongly suspect that Johnson will remain PM until the next election - which he is favourite to win. That final bit is yet another big incentive for him to fight for the role.

    The mechanism is

    - Either Johnson quits
    - Or a stalking horse candidate gets enough votes etc
    - Sunak runs in the election to replace Johnson

    If Sunak makes a direct challenge, historically, he has very little chance of becoming leader.
    OK, to be more precise: How likely is each mechanism? Johnson has no reason to quit and every reason to stay, Tory party rules no longer permit stalking horse candidates, and as you say a direct challenge is very unlikely to work.
    When a sufficiently large number of Conservative MPs want him to go, then Johnson will go. The actual mechanism is a detail at that point. There is no sign of that at the moment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,932
    On the subject of betting, I think Man City are overrated to retain the PL. I reckon Chelsea are stronger than them now and have real momentum under Tuchel (FA Cup loss to the Foxes apart) 6.2 to win on BFx.

    Man City were poor in the Community Shield, and have too many attacking Midfielders, and key players out like KDB. I reckon they won't get going until September. Spurs might well be value this Sunday too at 5.7.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,935
    Foxy said:



    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.

    Mmm, it's all a trade-off between health, cost and time. I keep an eye on weight and have an annual blood and BP test showing nothing concerning, so microwaving works for me. Cooking for myself doesn't appeal much, though I do it now and then for a change or with guests. But Deliveroo for me has the worst of all worlds - I'm sure it's microwaved anyway with low-quality ingredients, and tepid and expensive and delayed too.

    Still not understood why anyone does it! But apparently in New York it's now the norm for most young people - the idea of actually cooking yourself, even with a microwave, seems antique to them, and outsourcing to delivery companies saves worrying about equipping a kitchen at all.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,731
    edited August 2021

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Well that depends if it is Mrs U or myself in charge...Mrs U, basically everything is from scratch scratch.
    I suppose it depends if you actually enjoy cooking. I don't particularly, but I also can't stand ready meals, and I don't fancy takeaways on a regular basis. So I'll happily cook when it's my turn, but I'll take a few short cuts while doing so :smile:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,932

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj

    Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.

    I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
    If Prince Andrew chooses not to travel to the United States, and he is not extradited, the press articles indicate that he will take a huge financial punishment. Better than sitting in an American prison, but might mummy refuse to pay his bill?
    He's not poor himself. £50m or so I think is the commonly reported number.

    Though I am not sure how a Civil default verdict would be enforced.
    That is a scenario where the UK ambassador to the United States would be called in for a wee chat. During this chat the Good Friday Agreement will gently be slipped in, and Johnson’s desperation for a trade deal, and where Trident is going to be based, and… the list of useful American thumbscrews is endless. Then, as if by magic, the civil default payment will be made.

    Prince Andrew’s name is dirt now, but it is going to get significantly worse, especially among the decision-makers who matter. They just hate being coerced.
    Is the US establishment really going to throw all that on the bonfire just to assist this lady? I suspect many of them would prefer it if her credibility remained shrouded in some doubt.
    The US establishment and the English establishment share a common goal here: they want to put this shitshow to bed. If Andrew defaults on his financial penalty, the story still has legs and could run for decades. Royal scandals have a tendency to take on a life of their own.
    In your view, does being Scottish exclude you from the establishment?
    I don't see Biden spending political capital on this unless he responds to a lobby group.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    VC funded taxi firms don't win if we have self driving cars.

    They have no moat.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,165
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Is it puff? No sense in doing otherwise for puff, certainly, at all times. My late mother was a superb baker but always used readymade puff pastry.

    I'm not that great at shortcrust even ... what do you recommend?
    A live-in pastry chef :wink:

    We do shortcrust from scratch - it's easy, saves fridge space, money (probably?) and you can make the amount you need rather than finding something to do with leftovers. Also too scared to do puff pastry though, that comes from the shop (and any leftovers + parmesan = delicious cheese straws)
  • Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Is it puff? No sense in doing otherwise for puff, certainly, at all times. My late mother was a superb baker but always used readymade puff pastry.

    I'm not that great at shortcrust even ... what do you recommend?
    The Sainsbury's stuff does the job for me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,932

    Foxy said:



    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.

    Mmm, it's all a trade-off between health, cost and time. I keep an eye on weight and have an annual blood and BP test showing nothing concerning, so microwaving works for me. Cooking for myself doesn't appeal much, though I do it now and then for a change or with guests. But Deliveroo for me has the worst of all worlds - I'm sure it's microwaved anyway with low-quality ingredients, and tepid and expensive and delayed too.

    Still not understood why anyone does it! But apparently in New York it's now the norm for most young people - the idea of actually cooking yourself, even with a microwave, seems antique to them, and outsourcing to delivery companies saves worrying about equipping a kitchen at all.
    Though in Ancient Rome apparently everyone lived on takeaways!

    A junk food diet, ordered by App from the sofa, and delivered by exploited cyclists while an Internet company rakes off commission seems to pretty much encapsulate what is wrong with modern life to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,377
    edited August 2021
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj

    Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.

    I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
    If Prince Andrew chooses not to travel to the United States, and he is not extradited, the press articles indicate that he will take a huge financial punishment. Better than sitting in an American prison, but might mummy refuse to pay his bill?
    He's not poor himself. £50m or so I think is the commonly reported number.

    Though I am not sure how a Civil default verdict would be enforced.
    That is a scenario where the UK ambassador to the United States would be called in for a wee chat. During this chat the Good Friday Agreement will gently be slipped in, and Johnson’s desperation for a trade deal, and where Trident is going to be based, and… the list of useful American thumbscrews is endless. Then, as if by magic, the civil default payment will be made.

    Prince Andrew’s name is dirt now, but it is going to get significantly worse, especially among the decision-makers who matter. They just hate being coerced.
    Is the US establishment really going to throw all that on the bonfire just to assist this lady? I suspect many of them would prefer it if her credibility remained shrouded in some doubt.
    The US establishment and the English establishment share a common goal here: they want to put this shitshow to bed. If Andrew defaults on his financial penalty, the story still has legs and could run for decades. Royal scandals have a tendency to take on a life of their own.
    In your view, does being Scottish exclude you from the establishment?
    I don't see Biden spending political capital on this unless he responds to a lobby group.
    He is also close to the Clintons. He doesn't want to go too deep into Epstein
    https://deadline.com/2020/11/hillary-clinton-reacts-joe-biden-election-donald-trump-kamala-harris-1234610941/
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/15/jeffrey-epstein-kept-painting-bill-clinton-drag-house/
    https://www.newsweek.com/ghislaine-maxwell-confirms-bill-clinton-jeffrey-epstein-plane-unsealed-documents-1540852
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bill-clinton-jeffrey-epstein-and-ghislaine-maxwell-an-uncomfortable-connection-xsbhcxjkq
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,353
    Quincel said:

    Nigelb said:

    2022 Democratic majority in the Senate is around 4/1 on Betfair.
    Value, or not ?

    It's an interesting one: The Senate map is actually quite favourable to them, but it's a mid-term election 6 years after a pretty good one (popular vote wise) for them.

    Dems start on 50.5 (for betting purposes), and would fancy a shot at:

    - Pennslyvania
    - Wisconsin
    - North Carolina (a bit tougher)
    - Florida (a fair bit tougher)

    GOP start on 49.5 (for betting purposes) and will fancy their chances at:

    - Arizona (a fair bit tougher, unless they can pass some crazy voter suppression laws)
    - Georgia (could go either way, GOP have already passed voter suppression laws)
    - Nevada (a bit tough given demographics, but winnable)
    - New Hampshire (GOP should be pretty close but many a false dawn for them here of late)

    So it really could go either way. 4/1 probably is value, assuming that Sanders/King count as Democrat for betting purposes.
    Yes, forgot that wrinkle.
    Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,366
    edited August 2021

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    And you can't get an Amazon-like monopoly anyway.
    Whatever you think of them as a business, Amazon did bring something new to customers; the ability to browse every book there is. Outside big (university) cities, that possibly didn't exist before. And books fit nicely in the post.

    For takeaway food... It's nice to have home delivery, but it's coming from the same neighborhood places that were there anyway. It can't really come from further away, or the food will go cold. So outside lockdown, there's an implacable competitor of "go and get it yourself", which limits the possibility for enormous profit.
    But it does provide something new to consumers. The ability to browse every style of restaurant, every menu and pick something that you want - you're not limited to just your usual restaurant or whatever menus you got threw the door.

    Plus the competitor of "go get it yourself" is not that strong a competitor. If it was, that's what people would be doing. People are prepared to pay for delivery.
    These are takeways not restaurants. Big difference
    Both are available on the platforms nowadays.

    People are prepared to pay for delivery either way. Getting to the sweet spot may take time, but if people are prepared to pay more for delivery then there is a profit to be made.
    Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that the amount people are prepared to pay for a delivery doesn't exceed the costs of making that delivery, or not by much. Not enough to justify Uber et al as the next Amazon.

    There are businesses to be had in minicabs and food delivery, sure. But they are both inherently local things in a way that Amazon's retail offer isn't.
    How local is local though?

    I've just been on Just Eat to check and there's 157 restaurants that will deliver to me, 40 open right now at before midday on a Wednesday.

    If I was relying on just the takeaways I know about that deliver, I would not have a clue about anything near that many, nor about many that are open to delivery before midday.
    This is highly dependent on where you live, the corresponding figures for my address are 11 and 3.
    The best chinese takeout isn't actually on there.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,741
    edited August 2021

    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:


    So it really could go either way. 4/1 probably is value, assuming that Sanders/King count as Democrat for betting purposes.

    Caution! They don't, on Betfair:

    Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.
    Interesting. I wouldn't take 4/1 in that case, though given each senate race is a somewhat contingent probability it isn't the worst bet. But Dems needing 3 net gains? I'd want 10/1 at least. It really is close to a perfect result for them.
    Yes, 4/1 is too skinny.
    4/1 would be great if they included Sanders / King as democrats would be a decent bet. Without them the Democrats need to win 3 more seats and there are only 3 Republican seats they have any chance.

    That bet is a great example of why the devil is in the actual detail (or at least the actual T&Cs)...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,165
    felix said:

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Good one - I think it very likely that the Tories will be first to have a black or Asian leader if only to rub the left up!
    You fail to account for the possibility of Starmer self-identifying as a black woman :wink:
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.

    Mmm, it's all a trade-off between health, cost and time. I keep an eye on weight and have an annual blood and BP test showing nothing concerning, so microwaving works for me. Cooking for myself doesn't appeal much, though I do it now and then for a change or with guests. But Deliveroo for me has the worst of all worlds - I'm sure it's microwaved anyway with low-quality ingredients, and tepid and expensive and delayed too.

    Still not understood why anyone does it! But apparently in New York it's now the norm for most young people - the idea of actually cooking yourself, even with a microwave, seems antique to them, and outsourcing to delivery companies saves worrying about equipping a kitchen at all.
    Though in Ancient Rome apparently everyone lived on takeaways!

    A junk food diet, ordered by App from the sofa, and delivered by exploited cyclists while an Internet company rakes off commission seems to pretty much encapsulate what is wrong with modern life to me.
    You missed the bit about, even after all that the internet company still loses huge amounts of money on this....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,101

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Honestly no. Not going to happen. The core Tory party membership is too right-wing, too subconciously bigoted for that to happen imo.
    I was a member for years, and I think you are very wrong on that.
    I may be - I hope I am tbh. But I think the key word in your post is 'was'.
  • About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Honestly no. Not going to happen. The core Tory party membership is too right-wing, too subconciously bigoted for that to happen imo.
    I was a member for years, and I think you are very wrong on that.
    I may be - I hope I am tbh. But I think the key word in your post is 'was'.
    I am not right wing or a bigoted member, nor are many thousands to be fair
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    edited August 2021
    eek said:


    The moat was the first choice app that people use and originally the fact they would

    1) own the self driving software
    2) the cost of the cars would be such that others couldn't fund the investment involved.

    But Uber don't do cars. They don't do fleet management or maintenance. They entirely outsource their cars to the drivers, they are thr least efficient minicab firm in the world.

    They get the software and then what? They have to spend millions (billions) on buying the hardware, which has to be tightly integrated to the software. They are in the same position as everyone else is once self driving hits. Which is they have nothing and have to build up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,932

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.

    Mmm, it's all a trade-off between health, cost and time. I keep an eye on weight and have an annual blood and BP test showing nothing concerning, so microwaving works for me. Cooking for myself doesn't appeal much, though I do it now and then for a change or with guests. But Deliveroo for me has the worst of all worlds - I'm sure it's microwaved anyway with low-quality ingredients, and tepid and expensive and delayed too.

    Still not understood why anyone does it! But apparently in New York it's now the norm for most young people - the idea of actually cooking yourself, even with a microwave, seems antique to them, and outsourcing to delivery companies saves worrying about equipping a kitchen at all.
    Though in Ancient Rome apparently everyone lived on takeaways!

    A junk food diet, ordered by App from the sofa, and delivered by exploited cyclists while an Internet company rakes off commission seems to pretty much encapsulate what is wrong with modern life to me.
    You missed the bit about, even after all that the internet company still loses huge amounts of money on this....
    Yes, I am not sure who is gaining. It seems a pretty bad think all round.

    I find a slow cooker works well. Chuck in the veg, some beans, a bit of seasoning, a little meat, etc and leave for 12 hours. Then freeze the leftovers.

    It is quite easy to cook without recipes, apart from baking, which requires fairly careful measuring. Everything else I do by eye and taste.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,932
    edited August 2021

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    And you can't get an Amazon-like monopoly anyway.
    Whatever you think of them as a business, Amazon did bring something new to customers; the ability to browse every book there is. Outside big (university) cities, that possibly didn't exist before. And books fit nicely in the post.

    For takeaway food... It's nice to have home delivery, but it's coming from the same neighborhood places that were there anyway. It can't really come from further away, or the food will go cold. So outside lockdown, there's an implacable competitor of "go and get it yourself", which limits the possibility for enormous profit.
    But it does provide something new to consumers. The ability to browse every style of restaurant, every menu and pick something that you want - you're not limited to just your usual restaurant or whatever menus you got threw the door.

    Plus the competitor of "go get it yourself" is not that strong a competitor. If it was, that's what people would be doing. People are prepared to pay for delivery.
    These are takeways not restaurants. Big difference
    Both are available on the platforms nowadays.

    People are prepared to pay for delivery either way. Getting to the sweet spot may take time, but if people are prepared to pay more for delivery then there is a profit to be made.
    Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that the amount people are prepared to pay for a delivery doesn't exceed the costs of making that delivery, or not by much. Not enough to justify Uber et al as the next Amazon.

    There are businesses to be had in minicabs and food delivery, sure. But they are both inherently local things in a way that Amazon's retail offer isn't.
    How local is local though?

    I've just been on Just Eat to check and there's 157 restaurants that will deliver to me, 40 open right now at before midday on a Wednesday.

    If I was relying on just the takeaways I know about that deliver, I would not have a clue about anything near that many, nor about many that are open to delivery before midday.
    I have 20 out of 71, but the selection is very fast-food orientated.

    9 of 20 are Burger King, McDonalds, Greggs, Asda or a Chip Shop.
  • The modern Conservative Party is not the party that I disagreed with but respected.

    I now understand what people meant about Labour.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    And you can't get an Amazon-like monopoly anyway.
    Whatever you think of them as a business, Amazon did bring something new to customers; the ability to browse every book there is. Outside big (university) cities, that possibly didn't exist before. And books fit nicely in the post.

    For takeaway food... It's nice to have home delivery, but it's coming from the same neighborhood places that were there anyway. It can't really come from further away, or the food will go cold. So outside lockdown, there's an implacable competitor of "go and get it yourself", which limits the possibility for enormous profit.
    But it does provide something new to consumers. The ability to browse every style of restaurant, every menu and pick something that you want - you're not limited to just your usual restaurant or whatever menus you got threw the door.

    Plus the competitor of "go get it yourself" is not that strong a competitor. If it was, that's what people would be doing. People are prepared to pay for delivery.
    These are takeways not restaurants. Big difference
    Both are available on the platforms nowadays.

    People are prepared to pay for delivery either way. Getting to the sweet spot may take time, but if people are prepared to pay more for delivery then there is a profit to be made.
    Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that the amount people are prepared to pay for a delivery doesn't exceed the costs of making that delivery, or not by much. Not enough to justify Uber et al as the next Amazon.

    There are businesses to be had in minicabs and food delivery, sure. But they are both inherently local things in a way that Amazon's retail offer isn't.
    How local is local though?

    I've just been on Just Eat to check and there's 157 restaurants that will deliver to me, 40 open right now at before midday on a Wednesday.

    If I was relying on just the takeaways I know about that deliver, I would not have a clue about anything near that many, nor about many that are open to delivery before midday.
    This is highly dependent on where you live, the corresponding figures for my address are 11 and 3.
    The best chinese takeout isn't actually on there.
    Well then, I presume you're not their target market.

    If having food delivered, I've only ever ordered food for years via Just Eat or Deliveroo (unless I know of a website for whom we're ordering from). Ordering on the phone is worse and I'm quite content to pay marginally more for ordering online than having to speak to people on the phone.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,741
    Alistair said:

    eek said:


    The moat was the first choice app that people use and originally the fact they would

    1) own the self driving software
    2) the cost of the cars would be such that others couldn't fund the investment involved.

    But Uber don't do cars. They don't do fleet management or maintenance. They get the software and then what? They have to spend millions (billions) on buying the hardware, which has to be tightly integrated to the software. They are in the same position as everyone else is once self driving hits. Which is they have nothing and have to build up.
    Not if Uber owns the self driving software and won't let anyone else use it for taxi services.

    Tesla have a very similar deal within their Self Driving T&Cs - if the car is to be used for self drive taxi services, they are insisting on first dibs...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,608
    edited August 2021
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.

    Mmm, it's all a trade-off between health, cost and time. I keep an eye on weight and have an annual blood and BP test showing nothing concerning, so microwaving works for me. Cooking for myself doesn't appeal much, though I do it now and then for a change or with guests. But Deliveroo for me has the worst of all worlds - I'm sure it's microwaved anyway with low-quality ingredients, and tepid and expensive and delayed too.

    Still not understood why anyone does it! But apparently in New York it's now the norm for most young people - the idea of actually cooking yourself, even with a microwave, seems antique to them, and outsourcing to delivery companies saves worrying about equipping a kitchen at all.
    Though in Ancient Rome apparently everyone lived on takeaways!

    A junk food diet, ordered by App from the sofa, and delivered by exploited cyclists while an Internet company rakes off commission seems to pretty much encapsulate what is wrong with modern life to me.
    You missed the bit about, even after all that the internet company still loses huge amounts of money on this....
    Yes, I am not sure who is gaining. It seems a pretty bad think all round.

    I find a slow cooker works well. Chuck in the veg, some beans, a bit of seasoning, a little meat, etc and leave for 12 hours. Then freeze the leftovers.

    It is quite easy to cook without recipes, apart from baking, which requires fairly careful measuring. Everything else I do by eye and taste.
    The only people winning are those that run the adverts / influencers who take the sponsorship $. Because the barrier to entry is so low and there are so many different delivery apps, they all have to spend a massive amount of constant advertising. Apparently, more than basically any other business, if they don't advertise, they immediately start seeing loss of orders / share of the market.

    e.g. In the third quarter of 2020 DoorDash paid $290 million in marketing expenses or 33% of revenues. A healthier rate of marketing spend would be around 10% of sales. In 2019 DoorDash spent 101% of its revenues on marketing in the first quarter, a few months before it passed Grubhub in market share.

    https://www.indigo9digital.com/blog/fooddeliveryappprofitability

    That's business of the mad house.
  • MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
    The taxi / ride share "out" i can sort of see....if we get self driving cars, they win. Big if obviously.

    Food delivery services, you can't cut out the restaurants and self driving cars don't work for them, as a) they won't control those services and b) people want the food deliveried to their door, not have to cone out their flat, down in the lift, out into the street to pick a burger out the back of a self driving vehicle. And there is a fairly low ceiling on what you can charge for a delivery.

    Even if you get a monopoly on this business you can't charge £20 a delivery as nobody will pay it. I personally never use these services as i already think they are really expensive.
    And you can't get an Amazon-like monopoly anyway.
    Whatever you think of them as a business, Amazon did bring something new to customers; the ability to browse every book there is. Outside big (university) cities, that possibly didn't exist before. And books fit nicely in the post.

    For takeaway food... It's nice to have home delivery, but it's coming from the same neighborhood places that were there anyway. It can't really come from further away, or the food will go cold. So outside lockdown, there's an implacable competitor of "go and get it yourself", which limits the possibility for enormous profit.
    But it does provide something new to consumers. The ability to browse every style of restaurant, every menu and pick something that you want - you're not limited to just your usual restaurant or whatever menus you got threw the door.

    Plus the competitor of "go get it yourself" is not that strong a competitor. If it was, that's what people would be doing. People are prepared to pay for delivery.
    These are takeways not restaurants. Big difference
    Both are available on the platforms nowadays.

    People are prepared to pay for delivery either way. Getting to the sweet spot may take time, but if people are prepared to pay more for delivery then there is a profit to be made.
    Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that the amount people are prepared to pay for a delivery doesn't exceed the costs of making that delivery, or not by much. Not enough to justify Uber et al as the next Amazon.

    There are businesses to be had in minicabs and food delivery, sure. But they are both inherently local things in a way that Amazon's retail offer isn't.
    How local is local though?

    I've just been on Just Eat to check and there's 157 restaurants that will deliver to me, 40 open right now at before midday on a Wednesday.

    If I was relying on just the takeaways I know about that deliver, I would not have a clue about anything near that many, nor about many that are open to delivery before midday.
    I have 20 out of 71, but the selection is very fast-food orientated.

    9 of 20 are Burger King, McDonalds, Greggs, Asda or a Chip Shop.
    Makes sense, they're the sort of places likely to be open in the morning. Not many restaurants other than fast food ones are open in the morning before lunch time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,932
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.

    Mmm, it's all a trade-off between health, cost and time. I keep an eye on weight and have an annual blood and BP test showing nothing concerning, so microwaving works for me. Cooking for myself doesn't appeal much, though I do it now and then for a change or with guests. But Deliveroo for me has the worst of all worlds - I'm sure it's microwaved anyway with low-quality ingredients, and tepid and expensive and delayed too.

    Still not understood why anyone does it! But apparently in New York it's now the norm for most young people - the idea of actually cooking yourself, even with a microwave, seems antique to them, and outsourcing to delivery companies saves worrying about equipping a kitchen at all.
    Though in Ancient Rome apparently everyone lived on takeaways!

    A junk food diet, ordered by App from the sofa, and delivered by exploited cyclists while an Internet company rakes off commission seems to pretty much encapsulate what is wrong with modern life to me.
    Fire-regs in Insulae?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,581
    We should pause for a moment and take in that Biden got 19 GOPs senate members to vote for his infrastructure package yesterday.

  • eekeek Posts: 17,741
    edited August 2021
    Is @Gallowgate around?

    I've just seen a post on my linkedIn feed where someone has been a Paralegal at your employer for 3.5 years before finally getting a training contract .

    Doing it in the timeframe you did it was exceedingly good going.
  • We should pause for a moment and take in that Biden got 19 GOPs senate members to vote for his infrastructure package yesterday.

    And Ted Cruz has somehow become the hero of the libertarian left crypto lot....we live in strange times.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561

    About 20 minutes ago, I placed the maximum bet (£6.25!) Ladbrokes would give me on Kemi Badenoch as next Conservative leader, at 50/1. Now 25/1, although you might still be able to get 50/1 elsewhere.

    Honestly no. Not going to happen. The core Tory party membership is too right-wing, too subconciously bigoted for that to happen imo.
    I was a member for years, and I think you are very wrong on that.
    I may be - I hope I am tbh. But I think the key word in your post is 'was'.
    What you have to remember is that, even if there is subconscious bigotry (something by definition unknowable), the party has a long record of making choices which seem to go against the stereotype (plus some which were bang on it, of course!) First Jewish PM. First woman PM. Second woman PM. First Muslim holder of one of the three great offices of state. First Hindu holder of one of the three great offices of state. Second Hindu holder of one of the three great offices of state. First Muslim woman minister to speak from the House of Commons despatch box [Who was that? No Googling!]

    What I think happens here is that the party particularly likes 'outsider' politicians who express or embody its values, perhaps as a rebuff to the accusation that they are bigoted. And that is why I think Kemi Badenoch is one to watch. She also seems to be very good at self-promotion.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 691

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:



    Indeed. I use Deliveroo six times a week, sometimes more. It costs about £5 more than collecting food myself. If I did collect it myself, the cab fare home would be £5, so the whole deal is cost-neutral. But there is a limit to how much more people will pay for convenience. Tbh the bit I've never really understood is how the drivers make enough money to justify getting out of bed but clearly they must do.

    What they are doing of course is demonstrating to the DHSS that they are working, albeit at low pay. Otherwise they would be continually called in and subjected to harangues about finding a job, reskilling and so on.
    Good real-world insight there of the kind that politicians tend to miss, as not many have been in Job Centres.

    Personally I don't get the appeal of takeaways vs popping something in the microwave, unless there's half a dozen of you. If you're on your own or a couple, then getting some microwaveable food with the next shop or home delivery costs about £3 a head, and preparing it takes 5-10 minutes. Why would I want to hang about waiting for someone to turn up with a lukewarm parcel costing two or three times as much?
    Lukewarm junk food doesn't appeal to me much, though I do collect from the Chinese takeaway every other month or so, and a Sikh takeaway about the same.

    I had a Deliveroo from Wagamma when round Fox Jr's a couple of months back. Tepid and lots of single use plastics. Not the way that I want to live.

    I just batch cook and freeze leftovers now. Microwave meals are full of fat, sugar and salt. No way to eat.
    And as we found out with the horse meat scandal, ready meals (even big branded ones) are generally very poor quality ingredients.
    As with everything, the super low priced version comes at... a price.
    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mrs U and I work incredibly long hours (hence why I can be found posting at 4am and then 8-9am), and we still basically cook all our own meals from scratch.
    There are also different levels of "scratch". I'll be making a quiche for tea tonight with fresh ingredients, but I'll be using ready-rolled pastry.
    Is it puff? No sense in doing otherwise for puff, certainly, at all times. My late mother was a superb baker but always used readymade puff pastry.

    I'm not that great at shortcrust even ... what do you recommend?
    The Sainsbury's stuff does the job for me.
    Look for the all-butter stuff, it's just nicer; though it is so easy to make up a batch of shortcrust, and freeze it portioned and rolled, with greaseproof paper between sheets. Invest in a stand mixer, let it do the work - it's not as good as doing it by hand, but you can do a big batch very quickly; just make sure you barely work it enough to get it to a crumb. Err on the side of under-worked. Roll between sheets of greaseproof or clingfilm for ease.

    Roux brothers recipe:

    250 g plain flour
    10g caster sugar
    5g salt

    then, in a well in the middle:

    125 g cold unsalted butter
    1 egg

    (work to a crumb with fingers or machine)

    Then when it is just barely a crumb, dribble in *at most*

    40g cold water

    Add a little bit, wait a moment, and see if it is just sticky enough to come together.

    Ball up, wrap in clingfilm, stick in the fridge for an hour, then portion it up and roll into discs as I said above. Stick between sheets of greasproof, bag and freeze.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,353

    We should pause for a moment and take in that Biden got 19 GOPs senate members to vote for his infrastructure package yesterday.

    Well it wasn't really his infrastructure bill, but yes, it was actually a surprise that this wasn't just Republicans playing time wasting, and then pulling the football.
    A genuine achievement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,353
    edited August 2021
    In related news...

    GOP prays Sinema and Manchin pare back Dems' big spending bill
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/11/gop-sinema-manchin-spending-bill-503338

    Senate Republicans can’t stop Democrats from spending as much as $3.5 trillion more on social priorities like climate change in the coming months. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema can, though, and the GOP lobbying effort is already underway.

    After 19 GOP senators boosted a bipartisan infrastructure plan past a filibuster and onto the House, Republicans are yearning for results from their cooperation with Manchin and Sinema’s effort. Namely, they're hoping to persuade the senior Democratic senators from West Virginia and Arizona to buck their party and shave down the social spending bill by holding out their votes....


    Going to be interesting.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,328
    One for @ydoethur if he is around -

    From the Institute of Government -

    "In conversation with Amanda Spielman,

    Ofsted Chief Inspector

    This event will take place live on

    Tuesday 14 September 2021, 09:30 - 10:15"


    If he wants the form to register, VM me.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,063
    kinabalu said:

    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
    "Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."
    Covid has made those standard thumbs that go on the scales swell up..
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,935
    edited August 2021
    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,749

    We should pause for a moment and take in that Biden got 19 GOPs senate members to vote for his infrastructure package yesterday.

    And Ted Cruz has somehow become the hero of the libertarian left crypto lot....we live in strange times.
    The crypto left consists of like half-a-dozen dudes (plus a couple of ladies who used to be dudes) and none of us sees Ted Cruz as a hero. You work with whatever allies you've got though, since you'll never win a vote on anything with just left-libertarians.

    Our real hero is Ron Wyden.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,063
    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Something that has bugged me for sometime is the fact that Boris supposedly wrote two articles one pro one anti Brexit to decide where he stood. Logically that means he didn't have a firm definite view at that stage. Now I don't know about the rest of you, but as someone who tends to have strong views there are occasions when I am not sure on something and when I'm not sure I may form a view, but I may also be swayed, so the last thing I do is go out campaigning for my current position. Instead I listen to the arguments and play devils advocate.

    I suspect May was in this position re her Remain position.

    It does not come over as honest, but more opportunistic that Boris then took the position he did (Ditto I think for Gove).

    Is not another interpretation that he was waiting for the result (or some crucial vote within the Party) and then publish the corresponding article? Leading from the back, so to speak.

    I can't remember the context of the dual articles, so this may be quite implausible on the logic of the situation.
    I can't remember all the details either, but as he was a leader of the leave campaign this must have been before that obviously.

    When one writes a pro and con list for yourself it is because you don't know what to do, or you think you do but want to convince yourself. It is implausible that you are so muddled that you have no idea beforehand and after doing it you are so convinced by the argument that you want to lead the campaign.

    This argument is either bollocks or your mind is just made up of a spaghetti of thoughts (which with Boris is always possible).
    The other reason to do that is to anticipate your opponent's logic, but on what you say, he had not come to a settled view by then.
    Is BJ capable of a settled view on anything other than a feeling in his watter that this is good for MEEE…?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,932

    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
    Mrs Foxy and I refreshed our repertoire with Hello Fresh box kits a few years ago. They are quite easy instructions have all the odd ingredients and are mostly pretty good. Once you've done those for a while you know how to cook, and can go off piste.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,561

    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
    Clearly we need remedial cookery courses for ex-MPs.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 691

    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
    It's also the way recipes often point you at "making a dish" - whereas what you really want to do for home cooking is make batches of stuff that become your "home made" ready meals.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,960
    I see that Russia is reporting 799 deaths again. This raises the questions, which authoritarian dictatorship has the least accurate Covid death statistics? and, relatedly, which authoritarian dictatorship is most blatantly trolling its own population with inaccurate Covid death statistics?

    Russia is certainly challenging China on the second question now.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,741
    Cyclefree said:

    One for @ydoethur if he is around -

    From the Institute of Government -

    "In conversation with Amanda Spielman,

    Ofsted Chief Inspector

    This event will take place live on

    Tuesday 14 September 2021, 09:30 - 10:15"


    If he wants the form to register, VM me.

    I suspect it's timed for the school term so that no teachers can turn up...
  • kinabalu said:

    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
    "Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."
    Covid has made those standard thumbs that go on the scales swell up..
    Some of the inflation was inevitable- if you have 3 kids who can get an A but are wobbly, you know that one will likely blow up on the day, but there's no real way of telling which, and asking teachers to make that judgement just isn't on.

    But the rest was down to the governments not planning for this eventuality until it was too late. So no real criteria, no real clarity about what would count as evidence. And the smaller the classes, the easier it is to spend more time finding the evidence to justify a higher grade. With the outcomes we've seen.

    So the next questions are how do universities plan admissions for this autumn, how they plan for next autumn (how many offers can they make? what grades do they pitch at?), and linked to that- what will the grade distribution be next summer? None of the options look great, and the current Year 12s have messed-up GCSEs already;

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1425391348388085760?s=19
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,063

    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
    Never boil yer soup! Even tinned stuff.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443

    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
    Clearly we need remedial cookery courses for ex-MPs.
    Try this.

    1) Bag of fresh pasta (250g)
    2) Fresh spinach (250g)
    3) 100g feta cheese
    4) 100g chorizo
    5) 4 eggs
    6) For a bit of fun, ground nutmeg (not essential)

    1) Boil the pasta until just too firm to eat.
    2) Pour off the water (nearly all of it - leave it a bit wet)
    3) In an oven tin, mix the pasta, the spinach, feta and chorizo. Stir it around lots. After a while the heat and water from the pasta will start to wilt the spinach and it will mix in. This takes a few minutes of effort.
    4) Oven to 150c
    5) Make 4 indentations in the pasta/spinach mix. Crack each egg into a bowl, one at a time. Pour each egg into the indentation in the pasta/spinach mix.
    6) 25 minutes in the oven

  • Analysis

    "A total of 1,622 tweets were deleted, according to Twitter. That is roughly one-quarter of one second’s worth of tweets on the site. Ten committed racists (or edgelord dickheads) could send that many tweets in half an hour without being able to touch-type. "

    https://unherd.com/thepost/do-racist-euros-tweets-tell-us-anything-about-the-uk/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,443
    Foxy said:

    pm215 said:


    Each to their own, but I couldn't think anything worse than eating ready meals every day. Cooking really isn't hard nor does it have to be time consuming.

    Mmm, but if you're not used to it and don't have much experience beyond absolute basics it can be a bit daunting. As somebody who never has cooked much I don't have the cupboard full of basic ingredients or the experience and confidence to improvise a meal without following a recipe (at least not one that rises above the level of 'beans on toast' or 'pie and oven chips'...)

    Back in early 2020 when I started WFH I quickly realized that without access to the office canteen I was likely to fall into a diet with too many ready meals. So I signed up with one of these recipe-box companies. I'm definitely paying for the convenience, but it does mean that I don't have to do the work of planning what I'm going to eat and making sure I buy the right stuff in a big supermarket shop -- it cuts it down to literally just the 'do the cooking' part. Not for everybody and not the cheapest approach, but it's worked for me.
    Yes, the threshold to do it at all is underestimated by those who do it regularly - I'd not heard of recipe boxes companies and that sounds a good idea. A friend who does cook nudged me into doing some and offered advice, and we soon ran into exchanges like "You don't have turmeric???" "What is turmeric?", as well as equipment issues like not having baking trays, drainers, ladles, pestles, graters, etc. Also, recipe books are full of jargon which is mysterious to new cooks though perfectly familiar to regular cooks. I can see it could be fun if one really got into it, but the initial investment of time and purchases is, as you say, daunting.

    I always remember a Baxters 2-page advert for two ways of making a soup. One filled an entire page with descriptions of what to get and what to do. The other said "1. Buy a tin of Baxter's soup. 2. Boil it. Leave the rest to us." Convincing.
    Mrs Foxy and I refreshed our repertoire with Hello Fresh box kits a few years ago. They are quite easy instructions have all the odd ingredients and are mostly pretty good. Once you've done those for a while you know how to cook, and can go off piste.
    Yes - try taking a photo of the ingredients in one of these kit meals. Then buy the ingredients yourself and remake. Then start trying variations.....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,860
    Kemi Badenoch ‘lined up to replace Gavin Williamson as education secretary’
  • glwglw Posts: 7,962

    I see that Russia is reporting 799 deaths again. This raises the questions, which authoritarian dictatorship has the least accurate Covid death statistics? and, relatedly, which authoritarian dictatorship is most blatantly trolling its own population with inaccurate Covid death statistics?

    Russia is certainly challenging China on the second question now.

    The thing about Russia is that even though the health authorities put out some fairly dubious stats the Russian statistical authority is reporting excess deaths and attributing them to covid. So unless that changes the numbers will eventually catch up with reality.
This discussion has been closed.