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New poll for the Daily Mail has Rishi beating Boris as “Best PM” – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,863
    edited August 2021
    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Good morning

    Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas must be one of the most blinkered comments to appear on here today

    As most of you know I support Rishi and am one of the 58% who want him to succeed Boris this year, but I simply believe it is unrealistic largely as Boris wants to be seen leading COP26 in Glasgow and we are still fighting covid

    Boris has taken a hit in the polls and his retention of the absurd Williamson, Patel and Jenrick adds to the fact he is unable to make a sensible decision not helped by the fact he always wants to be liked

    Remarkably the conservatives still lead in the polls though that could change but the only opposition showing a sign of improvement are the lib dems, mainly in remain areas, and Labour still wallow by some distance from being considered a viable government

    As I said last night the IPCC climate report this week outlining the eye watering sums needed to mitigate climate change will make any government have nightmares and I simply consider GE24 could have most any outcome, though it might be GE23
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,001

    TOPPING said:

    Ah, Captain Thermos is here; that makes me nostalgic.

    He spends the whole journey up to Waterloo sitting in a quiet carriage whilst noisly screwing and unscrewing his thermos so he can take regular sips of coffee the whole way.

    Woe betide you if you are seated within 2-3 rows of him. It drives you mad like a dripping tap.

    Oh No! Have they strapped you in to your seat on a 50% capacity train? How awful.
    Ah, it's you.
    Some young whippersnapper on their phone smirking does my head in.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,001
    Pro_Rata said:

    Ah, Captain Thermos is here; that makes me nostalgic.

    He spends the whole journey up to Waterloo sitting in a quiet carriage whilst noisly screwing and unscrewing his thermos so he can take regular sips of coffee the whole way.

    Woe betide you if you are seated within 2-3 rows of him. It drives you mad like a dripping tap.

    The silent passive aggressive opprobrium of 20 other commuters is a beautiful thing. In the days of broadsheets woe betide the commuter who didn't know the regulation way to fold a broadsheet.

    I remember when we went to the Olympics with the kids on one of the special advance tickets that got you into London cheaply before 9am. The Peterborough crew didn't like their train invading one little bit.

    Not really like that on the Transpennine trains - not so much Northern friendliness, more that it is a much more mixed group of passengers, so never the sense that commuters rule the roost.
    And woe betide also anyone in the Quiet Carriage who makes any noise whatsoever above 0.01db. They get a firm ticking off.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,803
    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,766
    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,819
    edited August 2021

    isam said:

    The Tory voters opinions (in brackets on the graphic) are nowhere near as bad as the headline figures, and surely that’s where to look if you’re thinking about betting on whether Boris should be replaced? They prefer him to Rishi

    So just 43% of CON voters want Johnson to stay - 57% don't hardly a vote of confidence except for 'Boris fan boys.
    Come on Mike, you know full well that is not the question that was asked.

    If given a hypothetical forced choice between Boris and Rishi then I might say I think Rishi could do a better job, but I still want Boris to stay. For one thing, I don't know if Boris goes if he will definitely be replaced by Rishi or if he could be replaced by someone worse like Williamson (no sniggering in the back).

    If you want to know what percentage of CON voters want Boris to stay then ask that question, don't put up a forced choice between him and another Tory and then claim everyone who doesn't choose him wants him to go.
    There certainly is a substantial Anyone But Johnson vote in both party and country, but there is a lot of projection onto the enigmatic Sunak. Considering his NHS policy is to end covid funding and squeeze recovery monies, I am rather surprised if that is popular.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,001
    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Is an interesting scenario and far from a long shot. Even during the Cameron years when I was a full fat Cons supporter and activist I did wonder why they couldn't find just one bright northern, state-educated lass/lad to appoint to the No.10 policy unit rather than yet another OE.

    I think where you may well be right is the punters (ie us voters) may not want to choose the sensible, navy blue-coloured deck chair rather than the brightly-coloured one if the whole ship is going down.

    The Cons need to appeal to me (I am one of those you correctly identify as most critical of this shambles government having voted for them in 2019).

    However, I don't know what Lab stands for. That is always the case with an opposition - don't lay out your policies until polling day minus two weeks. But I would really like something to be getting on with. Plus Lab remains riddled with people I could never vote for.

    As for the LDs? Again, tell me something about where you see the UK in five years time and I'll ponder.

    Neither Lab nor the LDs have done this so we are stuck with the Cons.
  • NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,439
    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?
  • Foxy said:

    The polling on Sunak is bizarre in the header. He leads Johnson even in areas of policy where he has expressed no particular view. It looks like projection to me. Also that there are loads of people that really loathe Johnson, which is quite a motivator to GOTV.

    The other thing is that the things Rishi is probably best known for (furlough and half-price food) are probably out-of-character for most of his political instincts (which look like Thatcherism without the restraints that come from the experience of growing up in Grantham before the War).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,803
    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    Then what on earth are his lawyers playing at?

    - “Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.”

    If what you say is correct then his ridiculous assertion will achieve only one thing: dragging the whole royal family through the cesspool he is wallowing in.

    As I said at the top: this strikes me as being profoundly unwise.

    (Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    The Tory voters opinions (in brackets on the graphic) are nowhere near as bad as the headline figures, and surely that’s where to look if you’re thinking about betting on whether Boris should be replaced? They prefer him to Rishi

    So just 43% of CON voters want Johnson to stay - 57% don't hardly a vote of confidence except for 'Boris fan boys.
    As @Philip_Thompson points out, that’s not true. Even if your misread of the question asked were correct, the don’t knows mean it’s not 57%, but 39%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,819
    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    You have to isolate for 5 days in Italy if arriving from the UK, so best to do Greece first and dodge the isolation. From an Italian colleague, who is going back to visit her folks, via Greece.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,719
    .
    DavidL said:

    Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.

    Williamson, not so much.

    But this has all come about because Johnson wants to fire "a popular and apparantly competent Chancellor", which is certainly not an indication of "strong government" or " a well done to Boris".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,439
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    You have to isolate for 5 days in Italy if arriving from the UK, so best to do Greece first and dodge the isolation. From an Italian colleague, who is going back to visit her folks, via Greece.
    Yeah we're going Italy directly from Greece to avoid their idiotic 5 day quarantine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946
    MaxPB said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Sell LD seats.
    The Tories will buy them...or at least they did in 2015.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,001
    edited August 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,803
    MaxPB said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Sell LD seats.
    That is usually a golden rule of GE betting, but I have my doubts this time. As Cicero says, Davey has gravitas. If S England gets really fed up with Johnson then Davey looks like a safe custodian of their votes.

    If the Lib Dems can’t make hay while the sun is shining, when are they going to do it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,514
    edited August 2021
    BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371

    Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,037
    DavidL said:

    Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.

    Williamson, not so much.

    All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.

    When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,445
    edited August 2021


    (Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)

    No. I used to be DecrepitJohnL and after the great whatever-it-was pb infrastructure move, added an er to become @DecrepiterJohnL. John Loony was an OMRLP activist and pb's expert on the kremlinology of left-wing splinter groups.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,803
    Quincel said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.
    They will pop up. Bookies seem to often remove markets at nighttime. I suppose the traders don’t want to risk an unpleasant shock when they switch on their computers.
  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.

    Williamson, not so much.

    All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.

    When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
    Unless he follows the US stated approach to continue to hose money for several more years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,001

    BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371

    Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.

    Those boys don't work for peanuts, you know.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,803


    (Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)

    No. I used to be DecrepitJohnL and after the great whatever-it-was pb infrastructure move, added an er to become @DecrepiterJohnL. John Loony was an OMRLP activist and pb's expert on the kremlinology of left-wing splinter groups.
    He had defected to the Conservatives last I heard.

    Ta for explanation 😊
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946


    (Incidentally, is JohnL John Loony? And where did Herdson get to?)

    No. I used to be DecrepitJohnL and after the great whatever-it-was pb infrastructure move, added an er to become @DecrepiterJohnL. John Loony was an OMRLP activist and pb's expert on the kremlinology of left-wing splinter groups.
    Splitter groups, shurely?

    I miss JohnLoony. His posts were always good value.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,176
    edited August 2021
    Boris has, IMO, a bigger problem amongst, Tory MPs, Tory members and (legacy) Tory voters, than is fully appreciated outside of the party.

    Probably not far off being enough traditional right wing Tory MPs to get a confidence vote, but his problems are wider than in the PCP because of a combination of:

    - being too cautious on exiting lockdown
    - the distaste for road closures and cycle lanes
    - the cost of green policies
    - the shift away from traditional fiscal Conservatism

    Rishi has also been doing virtual appearances with constituencies - the Zoom equivalent of the rubber chicken circuit - and is seen as the heir apparent.

    This poll doesn't surprise me.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,439
    edited August 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Sell LD seats.
    That is usually a golden rule of GE betting, but I have my doubts this time. As Cicero says, Davey has gravitas. If S England gets really fed up with Johnson then Davey looks like a safe custodian of their votes.

    If the Lib Dems can’t make hay while the sun is shining, when are they going to do it?
    If the over/under is anywhere around 40 seats that's very easy money IMO. Davey just looks like nothing. He is a gaping vacuum of ideas like Starmer. I wish it were otherwise. If Southern England gets sick of Boris then Boris will get booted. Even if he doesn't the Lib Dems don't have the bandwidth to fight 100 bye election campaigns simultaneously.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,283

    BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371

    Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.

    SAS?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946
    edited August 2021
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Winchester is now the least affordable UK city to buy a home
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58162371

    Am I missing something, why is the average wage so high in Hereford, even higher than Winchester.

    SAS?
    A lot of the other employment in Hereford would also be in quite well paid public sector jobs - medicine, education, admin - providing services to the surrounding area. There aren’t many lower paid jobs to balance them in the city itself so I’m guessing that has a distorting effect too.

    Edit - incidentally if they dropped the ‘city’ requirement I would bet the most affordable place to live would be Llangefni in Anglesey. Pretty much all the jobs there are local council jobs on national pay scales but I doubt if house prices are especially high given the island as a whole has an average wage of around 55% of the UK average.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,628

    Either this is a great time to lay Rishi, or I should really stop laying Rishi.

    Same boat.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,798
    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,439
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    Ok thanks, it's BA and there's nothing about any LFT written. It just says have proof of vaccination.

    Didn't know about that three days before returning test, I guess I better look for a place that does them in Puglia. Thanks.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    MaxPB said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Sell LD seats.
    That is usually a golden rule of GE betting, but I have my doubts this time. As Cicero says, Davey has gravitas. If S England gets really fed up with Johnson then Davey looks like a safe custodian of their votes.

    If the Lib Dems can’t make hay while the sun is shining, when are they going to do it?
    I certainly expect the Lib Dems to make some hay in Southern England, but more in the region of a dozen new seats than 30. 40.5 is way too high.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,176
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.

    Williamson, not so much.

    All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.

    When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
    If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,176
    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,654
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.

    Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,450
    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    The current vaccines don't, I imagine work is underway to make a better vaccine which does
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,798

    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    The current vaccines don't, I imagine work is underway to make a better vaccine which does
    Or a combination of vaccine and other treatment therapy.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,885
    DavidL said:

    ‘Prince Andrew faces no good choice in Epstein accuser case’

    … Andrew’s team is likely to wage a protracted battle over the U.S. court’s jurisdiction while arguing that their client is entitled to immunity as a member of the royal family.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article253400255.html

    This strikes me as being profoundly unwise. There are shades of Tories breaking Covid rules (Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings, Gove, Hancock, Seely etc): one rule for the plebs but another rule for the entitled.

    Why should teenage girls be protected in law from sexual abuse, sexual assault, rape and sex trafficking, but then when it transpires that the repulsive middle-aged man who allegedly forced her to have sex was a member of a royal family, then… oh well… that’s alright then.

    A lot of people will forgive, or at least look away, when ministers break Covid rules. These are after all busy people doing important jobs. But what that pathetic man is accused of doing is utterly unforgivable. There is zero excuse.

    Luckily the US courts will not swallow such guff. One hates to think how the English courts would have (mis)handled this case.

    How would Scottish courts have handled it? And what is the age of consent in Scotland? Remember the victim here was 17 at the time of the incidents, which have been denied (although it might be that some denials at least focussed on the under-age part). Can you think of any recent cases in Scotland involving alleged sexual abuse by men in powerful positions?

    Doubtless some conspiracy theorists will be disappointed no MI6 assassins are sent to Australia to silence the accuser.

    ETA the Mail doubts Andrew has immunity anyway, not being the Queen.
    I think a problem for the Scottish courts (and quite possibly for the English courts too) is that the age of consent here is 16 and she was 17 when this allegedly happened. That means, in the absence of other coercion, this was not an offence here. IANAE on this but my understanding is that other than under special cases like the EAW for someone to be extradited the offence in the requesting country would normally have to be an offence here too.

    This, of course, is a civil suit so what she will need to prove is that this occurred in the US, specifically in NY. The case has been raised to prevent it being time barred for ever on the expiry of a time limited exemption for claimants who were children at the time of the alleged conduct. I suspect that the jurisdiction dispute will be lengthy.

    Andrew does not benefit from Crown immunity.
    I think Giuffre has had 2 previous out of Court settlements, so that is what I think this may be after. She has been fishing for offers of compensation previously according to eg The Times.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-to-be-sued-by-virginia-giuffre-after-offers-ignored-0fks8wldj

    Not sure how default verdicts would work in this case, were PA not to travel to the USA.

    I tend to think of US Civil cases as anywhere between valid claims and legalised muggings, and no way of telling which is which, as I think 90%+ are settled out of court.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,001
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.

    Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
    Yep good point PLFs out and back.
  • MattW said:

    Morning all. Picking my way through the threads :smiley:

    Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.

    ‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
    - Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption

    … Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”

    … Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent

    So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?

    How embarrassing for them.

    Internationalist?

    Sorry - that's just funny.
    The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.

    As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,628

    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
    "Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,766
    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    Perspective/clarification:

    To provide some wider context to the recent declarations by Andrew Pollard, JCVI chair, I'm retweeting a thread I wrote a few weeks ago.

    https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1425055618570850304?s=20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,654
    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.

    Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
    Yep good point PLFs out and back.
    Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:
    https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited August 2021
    Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,322
    Mortimer said:

    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.
    Surely this is "Lockdown forever" territory?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,654
    edited August 2021
    kinabalu said:

    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
    "Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."
    Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,798

    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    Perspective/clarification:

    To provide some wider context to the recent declarations by Andrew Pollard, JCVI chair, I'm retweeting a thread I wrote a few weeks ago.

    https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1425055618570850304?s=20
    This struck me:
    It is not so much anymore a 'duty to others' to get vaccinated but a protection for oneself. There won't be any 'herd immunity wall' to hide behind.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,037
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.

    Williamson, not so much.

    All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.

    When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
    If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.
    Even if one treats the pandemic like a war, with a decades-long repayment schedule, there is going to be a reckoning soon.

    The sharp bounce-back is already causing supply and logistics issues, which will quickly turn into inflation. Raw UK GDP numbers are going to be short of the pre-pandemic levels for a while, due to a decline in population and increased working from home, even if it results in quality of life increases.

    For all the talk of environmentalism in recent days, most of the proposals come with a masssive cost attached, which is going to be very difficult to sell politically without huge subsidies, and at the same time loss of revenue from things like fuel duties.
  • Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course a slightly different lens would say that a government that has a popular and apparently competent chancellor is a strong government and well done Boris for picking him.

    Williamson, not so much.

    All the Chancellor has been doing for the past 18 months, is hosing borrowed and printed money at the economy during the pandemic.

    When the books have to start balancing again, his ratings are going to be very different.
    If I were, say, the tenant of No 11 at the moment, I think I'd want to move next door before I had to start putting taxes up and before interest rates rise. I suspect Covid has somewhat accelerated the likely departure of Boris.
    Two ways of playing it, I guess.

    One is to try and take over now, and do different things to BoJo (what?) in the hope of it coming good by 2023/4.

    The other is to let Boris sit there, sucking up the hate for a couple more years, take over as the new broom six months before the next election.

    Depends how much you think Sunakism will be popular, and how much he's a blank page with a good Insta game.
  • Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
    "Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."
    Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.
    Self-selection bias.

    Any parents paying fees almost certainly care a lot about their kids education.

    While that will be true for many state school parents, it will not by any means be true for all or as many.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,290
    .
    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    That's not really a surprise, given what we already knew about the common cold coronaviruses.
    Similarly to flu, it's possible that the elderly/vulnerable will be offered annual vaccinations (though the rates of mutation of the two types of virus are rather different.)

    But this is the first time we've ever done such comprehensive mass population wide testing for a respiratory virus, so making comparisons isn't that easy.
  • Davey doesn't have gravitas - at least not gravitas that we can easily observe. The LibDems are a voiceless party, kept out of the spotlight watching the multiple Tory and Labour factions fight it out plus the Sturgeon vs Salmond circus as a distraction.

    I voted for Davey as leader partly because he is authentic and sincere and partly because he wasn't batshit crazy like Layla Moran.

    ALL the national parties suffer from a lack of talent. Whilst Sunak is polling well its because he isn't the Clown and has a sensational PR machine to ramp him. If we put him on the spot and say "whats your plan" he will have to triangulate - what Tories want, what red wall Tory voters need, what post Covid & post-Brexit we can afford. He will disappoint all groups.

    That is the politicians curse at the moment. There is no consensus (even amongst Brexiteers), there is no money, there is little talent.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Quincel said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.
    They don’t exist, I saw them on oddschecker ages ago but they’re not on the PP site. I think they’ve been left up from the 2019 GE.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,290
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    NEW: Lowest proportion of Scotland's poorest students at university for five years

    SNP were shouting loudly that places for the poorest rose by 7% yesterday but not a word that places for the richest rose by 13%.


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1425354048409120768?s=20

    I got the impression last year that those hostile to private schools were the most supportive of grade inflation - presumably because if everyone got As then the private sector differential would end.

    Reality has turned out differently:

    A charity has raised concerns that the coronavirus crisis has widened the gap between independent and state schools after it was revealed that just over 70% of all A-level entries from private schools in England were awarded an A grade or higher this year.

    Analysis of entries by exams regulator Ofqual found that 70.1% of pupils at fee-paying schools achieved the top grades, compared with 44% in 2019, when exams last took place, and 60.8% last year.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/alevel-sutton-trust-robert-halfon-ofqual-government-b950022.html
    "Hear the teachers are doing the A level grades this year. So, not to interfere or anything, but you know those fees we all pay ..."
    Yes (he who pays the piper) but that applies in state schools as well - pressure from parents and league tables.
    The immediate implied existential threat isn't quite the same.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,176

    Mortimer said:

    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.
    Surely this is "Lockdown forever" territory?
    I mean sure, thats probably how those who are a) perennially frit and or b) wanting to control the populace will use it - but the number of people in category a) is rapidly diminishing, and those in b) don't even have the Celtic fringe in which to take solace now.

    The rest of us are back to normal. Haven't worn a mask in over a week (since back from Wales). It is an absolute joy.

  • Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....

    You seem obsessive about the "Anti Boris Agenda". Is your opinion that the whole thing is made up by a hostile press? Unless you are saying this poll and all the other polls are fraudulent then there are a solid group of people - many of whom are Tories, some of whom post on PB - who are part of this "Anti Boris Agenda".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,764
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.

    Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,010
    edited August 2021
    the gift that keeps on giving
    Ex-Rangers executive Charles Green wins over £6m from Lord Advocate in malicious club fraud prosecution
    Details of the settlement came as an eight day hearing to judge the amount of damages was about to take place.

    Garry Borland QC for Mr Green said the settlement from Lord Advocate James Wolffe came overnight and that the former Rangers executive was "content to accept it".

    He said settlement came in the form of a judicial tender in the amount of £6,393,046 plus Mr Green's legal costs.

    It emerged during an earlier hearing that Police Scotland were no longer being sued as part of the action brought by Mr Green. No reasons were given as to why this was the case.
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19503046.ex-rangers-executive-charles-green-wins-6m-lord-advocate-malicious-club-fraud-prosecution/

    PS: Last two guys got £27M between them , looks like the £100M estimate may well be accurate. Conveyor belt of them making a fortune on the incompetence of the Crown Office. Luckily Scotland is rich and can afford all this largesse along with other payouts by this mob and Government attempted stitch ups.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,095

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.

    Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.

    I've said before that masks plus glasses plus hearing aids are among the most difficult things to untangle in use.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,628
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    Ok thanks, it's BA and there's nothing about any LFT written. It just says have proof of vaccination.

    Didn't know about that three days before returning test, I guess I better look for a place that does them in Puglia. Thanks.
    Wasn't SeanT / Leon off to Greece yesterday and he didn't need a test, just proof of vaccination.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,450

    Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....

    You seem obsessive about the "Anti Boris Agenda". Is your opinion that the whole thing is made up by a hostile press? Unless you are saying this poll and all the other polls are fraudulent then there are a solid group of people - many of whom are Tories, some of whom post on PB - who are part of this "Anti Boris Agenda".
    The point is the tories are still well clear in the polls, you would never know this given the threads on this site. This is some achievemment nearly 12 years into Government and Boris must take some credit for that.

    I really don't know what OGH will do if the Boris led Tories win the next GE.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,290

    Davey doesn't have gravitas - at least not gravitas that we can easily observe. The LibDems are a voiceless party, kept out of the spotlight watching the multiple Tory and Labour factions fight it out plus the Sturgeon vs Salmond circus as a distraction.

    I voted for Davey as leader partly because he is authentic and sincere and partly because he wasn't batshit crazy like Layla Moran.

    ALL the national parties suffer from a lack of talent. Whilst Sunak is polling well its because he isn't the Clown and has a sensational PR machine to ramp him. If we put him on the spot and say "whats your plan" he will have to triangulate - what Tories want, what red wall Tory voters need, what post Covid & post-Brexit we can afford. He will disappoint all groups.

    That is the politicians curse at the moment. There is no consensus (even amongst Brexiteers), there is no money, there is little talent.

    Sunak has a tough choice to make.
    Waiting for Boris to self immolate and inherit the leadership is probably his best option, but if that takes too long the Chancellor could easily be as unpopular as the PM, given the tough spending choices to come.

    I guess it depends on how much of a difference he believes he might make were he in charge sooner. Or how much he believes his own publicity.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,176
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.

    Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
    Yep good point PLFs out and back.
    Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:
    https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/
    Whats the deal with masks in Europe (specifically Italy, France and Greece)? And vax passes? I don't fancy going anywhere that requires either at the moment.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,764
    King Cole, you have my sympathy with that. I've got glasses and usually wear a hat (which I'll ditch today) and that's bad enough.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,946

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.

    Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.

    I’ll be wearing one tomorrow for a doctor‘s appointment.

    That’s the only time I will have worn one in the last three weeks, and nobody has objected.

    Morrison’s yesterday about 50% were wearing masks, but only one staff member was.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,010
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    Ok thanks, it's BA and there's nothing about any LFT written. It just says have proof of vaccination.

    Didn't know about that three days before returning test, I guess I better look for a place that does them in Puglia. Thanks.
    Wasn't SeanT / Leon off to Greece yesterday and he didn't need a test, just proof of vaccination.
    Was he not getting dropped off at Mont Blanc
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,202
    Foxy said:

    The polling on Sunak is bizarre in the header. He leads Johnson even in areas of policy where he has expressed no particular view. It looks like projection to me. Also that there are loads of people that really loathe Johnson, which is quite a motivator to GOTV.

    Well said - there's just no way to separately assess Sunak on some of those points do it's a classic proxy answer. Still notable, to a degree.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,555
    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    And the crucial point is that testing for cases is becoming increasingly irrelevant in that situation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,202
    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    Poor old Boris all he ever wanted to do was be PM without a care in the world and having saved the world UK from the EU and then the vaccine some beastly upstart seems to be challenging for his position.

    An upstart he appointed to be a yes man when the last one stood up to another guy he'll now pretend not to know because he keeps slagging off Boris's wife.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,462

    Mortimer said:

    geoffw said:

    Achievement of herd immunity to Covid-19 may be impossible according to Prof Andrew Pollard (Radio 4). Prof Andrew Hayward concurs and says the disease will become endemic. It cannot be eradicated because the vaccines do not prevent infection.

    Nail in the coffin for the lockdowners, now.
    Surely this is "Lockdown forever" territory?
    I'm sure iSAGE will enlighten us shortly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,202
    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    I was looking to go to both myself, do report back on progress!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,654
    Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booked our Greece/Italy trip. We'll be going for 6 weeks, working remotely for three weeks in Kefalonia . From what we can see we're both just getting the Randox day two tests for £48 each. Is there anything else we need to do? There's no advice on arrivals in Greece, it just seems to be turn up with your vaccine status and they'll let you in and Italy seems to be turn up from Europe and don't bother with a test. Are we going to get stuck or sent back?

    Boy did you miss a thread yesterday! :smile:

    I just booked the Randox Day 2 test yesterday as I'm going to Greece later this week.

    You need to show proof of 2x vax to Greece but your carrier might want an LFT so check, plus within three days before you return you need to take an onsite (ie while you're abroad) test and proof of the Day 2 test booking to be able to board the plane back.

    No idea about Italy but suspect it is the test within three days of return and proof of Day 2 test booking.
    You also need to complete the Greek passenger locator form before you leave UK and take evidence.

    Max, we are looking at Kefalonia too. Either there or Croatia. The latter is green so that is safer option.
    Yep good point PLFs out and back.
    Also worth pointing out that post-Brexit everyone should check their passport validity. I did and found that mine and a daughter's were unexpectedly out of date. It's not as straightforward as it may seem. There is a online tool:
    https://check-passport-for-travel-to-europe.homeoffice.gov.uk/
    Whats the deal with masks in Europe (specifically Italy, France and Greece)? And vax passes? I don't fancy going anywhere that requires either at the moment.

    Went to Portugal and Menorca recently. In both, masks on public transport and expected in shops (but not really enforced) - otherwise optional and not much evidence of mask-wearing when out and about. Overall you see more masks in the UK so I don't see how this can be a reason to not travel abroad.
  • Using this poll is a new low imho in the Anti Boris agenda. This firm may have done polls for the Mail before but so what.....

    You seem obsessive about the "Anti Boris Agenda". Is your opinion that the whole thing is made up by a hostile press? Unless you are saying this poll and all the other polls are fraudulent then there are a solid group of people - many of whom are Tories, some of whom post on PB - who are part of this "Anti Boris Agenda".
    Fraudulent? No.

    Farcical? Yes absolutely.

    11 years into the Tory PM's being in Downing Street and the only way to spin a negative story against the popular Tory PM, is to pit him against his even more popular Chancellor.

    We all know that if forced choice polls etc were putting Starmer ahead of Boris in the polls then that is what would be dominating the headers, but infuriatingly for some that is not the case. So hence we get barrel scraping by elements of the media like this farcical poll.

    At the next election it is not going to be Boris versus Sunak in the polls. They're in the same team. Its like being so desperate for an anti-Man City story that you posit why Gabriel Jesus being in form is bad news for Raheem Sterling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,514
    edited August 2021
    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.
  • BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,095
    edited August 2021

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    The traditional view of a business which is losing money hand over fist and seems to prosper is that there's dodgy money going in.

    Not, of course, saying that's the case here.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,885
    edited August 2021

    MattW said:

    Morning all. Picking my way through the threads :smiley:

    Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.

    ‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
    - Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption

    … Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”

    … Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent

    So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?

    How embarrassing for them.

    Internationalist?

    Sorry - that's just funny.
    The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.

    As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in.
    I saw what you did there :smile: . BFB are wibbling about Kent being a "permanent lorry park", and I pointed out they are telling fairy stories.

    That is a little different from "queues".

    Do you have evidence that seriously long queues are occurring "most days" at Dover, now that trade is roughly back to previous levels - which would be BFB being 'close to reality'? Where are these queues?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,988
    Herd immunity is still a useful idea in the COVID context, even if a continuously renewable, stable, lifelong herd immunity like is possible for measles is not what we're looking at.

    I still think this wave gets us pretty close to a point-in-time herd immunity by November, where the partial immunity of vaccination and the fuller immunity of infection combine to approach the magic number and make spread hard.

    The virus is also getting diminishing returns from greater infectiousness. A variant that takes, say, R0 7 to R0 8 is not only stretching for harder, rarer genetic optimisations, but it then only moves the herd immunity level by a couple of percent. More infectious variants will not outcompete by much and then not for long.

    By contrast R 2.5 to R 3.5 in the midst of lockdown was an easy evolution and a no brainer advantage to the virus.

    The virus will have to switch, in the UK, to immune escape variants - causing mild but spreadable disease in already immune people. That in itself is the transition from pandemic to seasonal, endemic disease - in the UK at least, and approaching point herd immunity is the trigger point for that.

    That's also the point when the focus must switch full force to ending the pandemic phase in the rest of the world.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,290

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mortimer, be glad when masks are no more at all.

    Got my second jab today and I'll be wearing one on the assumption it's required, but I really loathe the damned things.

    I've said before that masks plus glasses plus hearing aids are among the most difficult things to untangle in use.
    Hearing aids are the worst, I think.
    My mother keeps losing hers when she demasks.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,779
    Nigelb said:

    Davey doesn't have gravitas - at least not gravitas that we can easily observe. The LibDems are a voiceless party, kept out of the spotlight watching the multiple Tory and Labour factions fight it out plus the Sturgeon vs Salmond circus as a distraction.

    I voted for Davey as leader partly because he is authentic and sincere and partly because he wasn't batshit crazy like Layla Moran.

    ALL the national parties suffer from a lack of talent. Whilst Sunak is polling well its because he isn't the Clown and has a sensational PR machine to ramp him. If we put him on the spot and say "whats your plan" he will have to triangulate - what Tories want, what red wall Tory voters need, what post Covid & post-Brexit we can afford. He will disappoint all groups.

    That is the politicians curse at the moment. There is no consensus (even amongst Brexiteers), there is no money, there is little talent.

    Sunak has a tough choice to make.
    Waiting for Boris to self immolate and inherit the leadership is probably his best option, but if that takes too long the Chancellor could easily be as unpopular as the PM, given the tough spending choices to come.

    I guess it depends on how much of a difference he believes he might make were he in charge sooner. Or how much he believes his own publicity.
    It is not obvious to me that Mr Sunak, as PM, could escape the consequences of covid economic policy, given how careful he and his team were to publicise his role as CoE enunciating that very policy during the pandemic (for instance, furlough and EOTHO).

    Also, displacing Mr Johnson (even without overtly stabbing him in the back metaphorically speaking) would upset a lot of people in the Tory Party and the country as a whole.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,779
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all. Picking my way through the threads :smiley:

    Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.

    ‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
    - Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption

    … Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”

    … Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent

    So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?

    How embarrassing for them.

    Internationalist?

    Sorry - that's just funny.
    The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.

    As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in.
    I saw what you did there. BFB are wibbling about Kent being a "permanent lorry park", and I pointed out they are telling fairy stories.

    That is a little different from "queues".

    Do you have evidence that seriously long queues are occurring "most days" at Dover, now that trade is roughly back to previous levels - which would be BFB being 'close to reality'? Where are these queues?
    No customs controls inwards, yet, mind. So Brsexit is not fully implemented.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,514
    edited August 2021

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.
    They were never losing money at insane amounts, they just weren't making money on paper, because they reinvested the profits they were making on physical expansion...also remember AWS is the massive money maker.

    My understanding with the food delivery business is barrier to entry is really low and they need to spend insane amounts on advertising to drive business to them rather than the 27 other options. And even if they win the game to become the dominant player, there isn't any more to squeeze out of the restaurants or riders....there is no extra efficiency to be had in the way Amazon introduced robots into the warehouses....and there is an upper bound on how much you can charge before people just get in their car and drive themselves to get it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,654
    edited August 2021
    @MaxPB

    Re your post earlier, you need a negative Covid test (PCR or LFT) taken within 72 hours of your return to the UK.

    You can seek a local provider. But what we have done twice - and it has worked perfectly - is ordered little LFT test packs before we left UK and popped them in suitcase. You then organise video session (timed just within 72 hours of your return to UK) with a rep from the provider (Qured) who talks you through the test and watches you do it properly. The call ends and you are instructed to wait 15 minutes for the result to be revealed on the white testing thingy and you then photograph it and send it to Qured. 30 mins or so later you get a certificate of result which is what you need before returning to the UK. It costs about £40 quid. I think this is much easier and more time-efficient than seeking a local provider. Make sure you have good wifi for the video session obvs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,885
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    Cicero said:

    The right wing press is pretty grim reading for Number 10 today. Fury over grade inflation turned full force on the hapless Williamson. Cameron lobbying stories finally surfacing. Nasty polls for Johnson. As in Chesham and Amersham, those most critical of this shambles of a government are those who voted for it in 2019.

    In the end "the economy, stupid" is probably where Conservatives may well decide that Johnson isn´t a Conservative. If that happens then his grip on power will be gone immediately. The problem for GBNI is that the endless soap opera of Tory party leadership challenges is the epitome of Westminster bubble politics: in the end frustration at government failures may vent with "a plague of all your houses" and then no Tory leader looks credible.

    Therefore those who think that Sunak is the 7th cavalry riding to the rescue may well find that this figure who has risen without trace is a straw man at a barn fire. An urbane Wykhamist who married his money is not exactly a firey tribune of the people.

    Wait until the polls get really bad in the late winter. Starmer (and Davey) have gravitas and that may well be what counts as the country faces ever increasing problems from the slow puncture Brexit and the government´s sloppy fiscal incontinence while the economy wallows in post Covid incompetence and inefficiency and the spectre of exploding government debt turns into a crisis.

    Calls to "Get a grip" will move to "Get Lost". Johnson may then be the fall guy, but looking at the cabinet I, for one, see no beginning to their talents. Choosing a Jim Hacker like figure such as Sunak will not alter that.

    The pendulum will be really swinging by then.

    Great post. But, this (supposedly) being a betting blog, your talk of swinging pendulums, exploding government debt, crisis, inefficiency, incompetence, sloppiness, lack of gravitas, slow puncture Brexit and “the economy stupid” turned my thoughts to bookies. As carcasses always bring to mind vultures.

    Mid-point PP prices:

    Con seats 329.5
    Lab seats 206.5
    SNP seats 47.5
    LD seats 40.5

    Where’s the value Cicero?
    Are these odds actually available? I see them on Oddschecker, but they don't seem to actually be there on PP. As MaxPB says, massive value against the LDs otherwise.
    They don’t exist, I saw them on oddschecker ages ago but they’re not on the PP site. I think they’ve been left up from the 2019 GE.
    Weren't these the ones that vanished when it was pointed out on PB, and someone had been "nibbling at it"?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,037

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    Well the original investors got it to the IPO, so they don’t care much any more.

    I still don’t see how a company with ~£150m of revenue can have ~£250m of expenses and be in any way sustainable.

    These delivery and taxi companies are all losing a fortune, trying to build sufficient market share that can’t be taken away by the next new startup of VC money undercutting them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,037

    BBC News - Deliveroo orders double as lockdown habits endure
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58169570

    Double the orders, screwing the restaurants and the riders and still losing money hand over fist. What a crazy business.

    That's what people were saying about Amazon for years, and now its a licence to print money.
    Amazon were reinvesting their profits in developing the business, rather than returning it to shareholders.

    These guys don’t have profits, they have massive losses.
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all. Picking my way through the threads :smiley:

    Transition? Pull the other one. The Brexit Revolution has only just begun.

    ‘Emergency Brexit powers for lorry queues to be made permanent’
    - Exclusive: ministers to make traffic provisions indefinite in expectation of further cross-Channel disruption

    … Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, said: “This is an admission that far from ‘teething problems’, the government expects supply problems from their rushed Brexit deal to continue indefinitely. Shelves are empty and our supply chains are already at breaking point. The government should be seeking improvements to their deal with Europe rather than preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park.”

    … Operation Brock has proved unpopular with residents as a way of managing lorry traffic…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/10/emergency-brexit-powers-for-lorry-queues-to-be-made-permanent

    So the Gina Miller muppet show thinks that a contingency measure for use when necessary is the same as "preparing to make Kent a permanent lorry park"?

    How embarrassing for them.

    Internationalist?

    Sorry - that's just funny.
    The problem with your guffawing at their spokesperson is that they are closer to reality than you are. If the UK and EU implement the UK's exit deal then we are highly likely to see long queues of trucks because that's what you get at (for example) EU / Switzerland crossings where traffic is much lower. Hence the need for the very unpopular truck carparks which have been built at places like Ashford.

    As a fixed border crossing makes queues inevitable, "when necessary" is "most days" unless we build enough big lorry parks to stack them in.
    I saw what you did there :smile: . BFB are wibbling about Kent being a "permanent lorry park", and I pointed out they are telling fairy stories.

    That is a little different from "queues".

    Do you have evidence that seriously long queues are occurring "most days" at Dover, now that trade is roughly back to previous levels - which would be BFB being 'close to reality'? Where are these queues?
    Its sensible to have provisions to deal with traffic issues not because of simply Brexit, but because of the age old rule that the French are revolting. How often do French strikes cause traffic mayhem?

    It makes sense to have a Plan B ready to put into place at a moment's notice whenever the French cause disruption.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,156
    Completely off-topic (though half-on for a few threads back).

    First proper day back in office (as in actually in office working, not just for a catch-up) since March 2019. Also first day cycling in since we moved in 2016. 15.1 miles in 1 hour 5 minutes, very pleased with that. I thought I'd manage a steady 10mph at least so was working on up to 90 minutes, actually 13.9 average. On my wife's Halfords hybrid too as the drive train on my bike needs some serious TLC. The journey used to take 45-50 minutes at least by car.

    Unfortunately, the showers that I used sometimes when I used to cycle from our old house (4 miles each way) have a big 'out of use' label and a locked door, so I need to do some searching. Private office though, so no one else needs to smell me in the meantime, at least.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,766
    edited August 2021
    Our Schools Infection Survey shows #COVID19 infection rates were lower in the summer term of 2021 than in autumn 2020, with infection rates in June 2021 as follows:

    primary pupils = 0.27%
    secondary pupils = 0.42%
    secondary staff = 0.27%


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1425374260067975172?s=20
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,125
    It might be pleasant to interrupt the current trend in anti-Johnson threaders with something about this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/08/jeremy-corbyn-could-be-reinstated-as-labour-mp-under-leftwing-challenge-to-starmer

    What's going on under the surface of the Labour Party at the moment? Has Starmer won, or is the battle for the party's soul still ongoing?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,325
    Colleague's son has a new British u16 67.5 kg squat record, 152.5 Kg.
This discussion has been closed.