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The UK vaccination programme nearly 8 months after the first jab – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,900
    edited August 2021

    Is there some secret anti-vaxxer buzz word I should be looking out for?

    Yes...there is plenty in that statement....e.g. well I had COVID before, so I know I can handle it. That pure antivaxxer talk.

    Also, he equates getting vaccinated with potential of reoccurrence / worsen of this condition. The CDC again say this is false.
  • The Offspring drummer Pete Parada claims he has been dropped for not getting COVID vaccinated

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-offspring-drummer-pete-parada-claims-he-has-been-dropped-for-not-getting-covid-vaccinated-12372404

    Being an anti-vaxxer in a band whose lead singer and founding member has a PhD in AIDs research, there is only ever going to be one result.

    As I understand it, he's got a fairly serious long term immune condition, Guillain-Barré syndrome.
    That isn't the issue, that's his reason he gives for him not getting vaccinated, but he has been also spouting off anti-vaxxer stuff.
    Hmm, his statement seems quite fair to me, puts the medical issue front and centre and then makes the broader point about not judging people for private medical issues.

    How this story has been reported is quite interesting in terms of what's been left in and what's been left out.

    See my link, CDC say you should still get vaccinated even with that condition.
    In the link: https://news.sky.com/story/the-offspring-drummer-pete-parada-claims-he-has-been-dropped-for-not-getting-covid-vaccinated-12372404

    I can't even see the letters CDC. Ctrl+F can't.

    I'll check if you've dropped another link and I've missed it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,900
    edited August 2021

    The Offspring drummer Pete Parada claims he has been dropped for not getting COVID vaccinated

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-offspring-drummer-pete-parada-claims-he-has-been-dropped-for-not-getting-covid-vaccinated-12372404

    Being an anti-vaxxer in a band whose lead singer and founding member has a PhD in AIDs research, there is only ever going to be one result.

    As I understand it, he's got a fairly serious long term immune condition, Guillain-Barré syndrome.
    That isn't the issue, that's his reason he gives for him not getting vaccinated, but he has been also spouting off anti-vaxxer stuff.
    Hmm, his statement seems quite fair to me, puts the medical issue front and centre and then makes the broader point about not judging people for private medical issues.

    How this story has been reported is quite interesting in terms of what's been left in and what's been left out.

    See my link, CDC say you should still get vaccinated even with that condition.
    In the link: https://news.sky.com/story/the-offspring-drummer-pete-parada-claims-he-has-been-dropped-for-not-getting-covid-vaccinated-12372404

    I can't even see the letters CDC. Ctrl+F can't.

    I'll check if you've dropped another link and I've missed it.
    Repeat post....

    People who have previously had GBS may receive a COVID-19 vaccine. To date, no cases of GBS have been reported following vaccination in participants in the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/underlying-conditions.html

    So according to the CDC, he should get vaccinated and his talk of the potential his condition might come back / worsen following this is false. 180+ million doses in the US alone of mRNA vaccines, zero issues related to this.

    Gets the big ANTIVAXXER stamp out....

    As I say, the guy who founded the band has a PhD in molecular biology, where he was researching AIDs, he isn't your usual rock star dumb dumb.
  • Is there some secret anti-vaxxer buzz word I should be looking out for?

    It's not a buzzword but a phrase.

    'I like pineapple on pizza.'
    yeah, can't see it.
  • England's team totals since their most recent Test win:

    134
    164
    112
    81
    205
    135
    275
    170-3
    303
    122
    183 - TODAY
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,751

    Is there some secret anti-vaxxer buzz word I should be looking out for?

    Ivermectin
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,597
    Pulpstar said:

    Is there some secret anti-vaxxer buzz word I should be looking out for?

    Ivermectin
    Yep. That's the one...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,900
    edited August 2021

    England's team totals since their most recent Test win:

    134
    164
    112
    81
    205
    135
    275
    170-3
    303
    122
    183 - TODAY

    Good job England bat deep.....at what point do we finally say the likes of Sibley just aren't test match quality.
  • Manchester Met...not an establishment I would have thought would have enough Tories to even form a society.

    https://order-order.com/2021/08/04/tory-university-society-party-chants-for-farage-ends-in-hospitalisation/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886
    Stumps at 18:30, 19:00, or after 10 overs more?
  • Sandpit said:

    Stumps at 18:30, 19:00, or after 10 overs more?

    They might as well just change the rules these days to have the extra 30-60 mins as standard, as nobody gets through the 90 on time anymore.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,900
    edited August 2021
    Germany’s health minister is planning to introduce sweeping measures next month that could considerably restrict the lives of people who do not get a coronavirus vaccine, according to widespread reports.

    The proposed so-called 3G rules would allow only those who had been vaccinated, tested or had recovered from an infection access to many facilities. Restaurants, hotels, hairdressers, sport facilities and large gatherings, both outside and in, are among those he has listed as places that would be out of bounds to those who did not fulfil the criteria.

    3G refers to the German words geimpft (vaccinated), gestestet (tested) and genesen (recovered).

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/tight-restrictions-planned-for-unjabbed-germans-to-avert-new-covid-wave

    Or more simply put, Get Jabbed, or Get out of my restaurant and Get back in your house.
  • That was such a bad review that you would have bet the house on the bowler being Stuart Broad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886
    18:30 it is then.
  • Come on, Indi... er, I mean England!

    :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,900
    edited August 2021

    Germany’s health minister is planning to introduce sweeping measures next month that could considerably restrict the lives of people who do not get a coronavirus vaccine, according to widespread reports.

    The proposed so-called 3G rules would allow only those who had been vaccinated, tested or had recovered from an infection access to many facilities. Restaurants, hotels, hairdressers, sport facilities and large gatherings, both outside and in, are among those he has listed as places that would be out of bounds to those who did not fulfil the criteria.

    3G refers to the German words geimpft (vaccinated), gestestet (tested) and genesen (recovered).

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/tight-restrictions-planned-for-unjabbed-germans-to-avert-new-covid-wave

    Or more simply put, Get Jabbed, or Get out of my restaurant and Get back in your house.

    They missed a trick not making them the 5G rules.
    LOL. Piers Corbyn would have a meltdown (from all the high powered microwaves secretly being beamed out into the public, obviously).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,751
    Sandpit said:

    18:30 it is then.

    India and England are probably the two worst teams for over rates, but have they seriously only got through 78 overs and 4 balls today ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,024
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is there some secret anti-vaxxer buzz word I should be looking out for?

    Ivermectin
    Yep. That's the one...
    On which, a medical friend pointed out this systematic review:

    https://www.cochrane.org/news/ivermectin-preventing-and-treating-covid-19

    'Main authors of the review, Maria Popp and Stephanie Weibel said: “The lack of good quality evidence on efficacy and safety of ivermectin arises from a study pool that consists mainly of small, insufficiently powered RCTs with overall limited quality regarding study design, conduct, and reporting. Current evidence does not support using ivermectin for treating or preventing of COVID-19 unless they are part of well-designed randomized trials.”'

    (but other trials have not finished - still, doesn't look promising)
  • Forget Test Match nonsense, time for some proper cricket....
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484
    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Hard to disagree with Peter Kyle here:

    Offering vaccines to 16-17 year old is too late to make a difference to education when terms starts next month.

    Government have squandered the opportunity summer offered.


    https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1422837146625396736

    I assume Kyle expects HMG to ignore the advice of JCVI who provided an explanation in today's Downing St conference alongside JVT and the head of the MHRA
    You are aware the JCVI are given their terms of reference by the Gov't ?
    Not sure what you are implying to be honest
    The JCVI are marking HMG's homework and HMG are marking the JCVI's marking.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    "As the 2022 and 2024 elections get closer, Biden is in a race to keep public attention on policies and initiatives favorable to the Democratic Party and its candidates against the continuing threat that inflation, crime, urban disorder and illegal immigration — all issues that favor the Republican Party — take center stage."

    "In a politics of fear, the targets of fear become identified with different candidates, and Biden’s fears now seem paramount: Covid, Climate and Chaos."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/opinion/biden-eviction-covid-democrats.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484
    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK recorded 29,312 coronavirus cases in last 24 hours.
    Here’s how we compare to other countries:

    🇬🇧 UK - 29,312

    🇫🇷 FRANCE - 1,996
    🇩🇪 GERMANY - 1,776
    🇪🇸 SPAIN - 4,954
    🇮🇹 ITALY - 3,185

    🇺🇸 USA - 15,081
    🇧🇷 BRAZIL - 20,503
    🇮🇳 INDIA - 30,549
    🇮🇩 INDONESIA - 33,900
    (Data: @who)
    https://twitter.com/mrmikecowan/status/1422939172902514688

    Ummm, are we absolutely sure the numbers for the other countries are correct?
    They aren't...e.g. US 15k....its more like 150k....

    And this is a BBC journalist....f##king morons in the media again.
    There should really be a warning whenever Scott'n'Paste posts.
    More blue on blue action!

    Don't forget Scott is a loyal Cameron Tory.
    Or is a Tory only a Tory these days if they follow the gospel of St. Boris?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    For the vast majority of young people it is, she's just unlucky that her immune system was too slow to fight it off before it entered her lungs.
  • MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484
    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    Maybe they are reluctant to go back to work, where they won't be able/allowed to post on PB all day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    edited August 2021

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
  • felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK recorded 29,312 coronavirus cases in last 24 hours.
    Here’s how we compare to other countries:

    🇬🇧 UK - 29,312

    🇫🇷 FRANCE - 1,996
    🇩🇪 GERMANY - 1,776
    🇪🇸 SPAIN - 4,954
    🇮🇹 ITALY - 3,185

    🇺🇸 USA - 15,081
    🇧🇷 BRAZIL - 20,503
    🇮🇳 INDIA - 30,549
    🇮🇩 INDONESIA - 33,900
    (Data: @who)
    https://twitter.com/mrmikecowan/status/1422939172902514688

    Ummm, are we absolutely sure the numbers for the other countries are correct?
    They aren't...e.g. US 15k....its more like 150k....

    And this is a BBC journalist....f##king morons in the media again.
    There should really be a warning whenever Scott'n'Paste posts.
    More blue on blue action!

    Don't forget Scott is a loyal Cameron Tory.
    Who??
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,471
    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    ...

    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK recorded 29,312 coronavirus cases in last 24 hours.
    Here’s how we compare to other countries:

    🇬🇧 UK - 29,312

    🇫🇷 FRANCE - 1,996
    🇩🇪 GERMANY - 1,776
    🇪🇸 SPAIN - 4,954
    🇮🇹 ITALY - 3,185

    🇺🇸 USA - 15,081
    🇧🇷 BRAZIL - 20,503
    🇮🇳 INDIA - 30,549
    🇮🇩 INDONESIA - 33,900
    (Data: @who)
    https://twitter.com/mrmikecowan/status/1422939172902514688

    Ummm, are we absolutely sure the numbers for the other countries are correct?
    They aren't...e.g. US 15k....its more like 150k....

    And this is a BBC journalist....f##king morons in the media again.
    There should really be a warning whenever Scott'n'Paste posts.
    More blue on blue action!

    Don't forget Scott is a loyal Cameron Tory.
    Or is a Tory only a Tory these days if they follow the gospel of St. Boris?
    Are the Lib Dems the only party that aren't rife with divison?

    As you say, there are a lot of Cameroons at War with Boris
    Obviously Sir Keir's Centrists and the Corbynites
    The Greens I think I heard were split?
    Sturgeon vs Salmond
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Sort of on topic, when I was working, I ran a company with 100 employees, the "one day flu" was very popular,when they wanted a day off, with the comment " a lot of it going round".

    I would not wish any sort of covid on anyone.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK recorded 29,312 coronavirus cases in last 24 hours.
    Here’s how we compare to other countries:

    🇬🇧 UK - 29,312

    🇫🇷 FRANCE - 1,996
    🇩🇪 GERMANY - 1,776
    🇪🇸 SPAIN - 4,954
    🇮🇹 ITALY - 3,185

    🇺🇸 USA - 15,081
    🇧🇷 BRAZIL - 20,503
    🇮🇳 INDIA - 30,549
    🇮🇩 INDONESIA - 33,900
    (Data: @who)
    https://twitter.com/mrmikecowan/status/1422939172902514688

    Ummm, are we absolutely sure the numbers for the other countries are correct?
    They aren't...e.g. US 15k....its more like 150k....

    And this is a BBC journalist....f##king morons in the media again.
    There should really be a warning whenever Scott'n'Paste posts.
    More blue on blue action!

    Don't forget Scott is a loyal Cameron Tory.
    Who??
    Oh yeah, I forgot, airbrushed from history like the Mensheviks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,751
    I've gone through the test....

    India

    11 - 1:02 (122 mins) 25 overs
    1:41 - 3:41 (120 mins) 25.2 overs
    3:58 - 5:24 (86 mins) 15.2 overs

    12.03 overs/hour

    Change of innings (9 mins)

    5:33 - 6:30 13 overs (Rate 13.68)

    13.84 overs/hour required to get a full 90 in in a day.

    Result is 9 overs short (87 overs and 4 balls should have been bowled), 8 overs and 5 balls due to India's rate, England slow by 1 ball.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,851
    Thanks to Pulpstar for the balanced and persuasive header.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,851
    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    Non-dinosaurs thought it wasn't a bug but a feature...

    More seriously, that sounds a great employer I bet she stays with them for ages. My colleague (age 35) feels she's now fully recovered - had 5 days unable to eat and asleep most of the time, then a week incredibly tired, and now just a bit tired and back at work (we told her not to rush but she wanted to).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484
    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    The dinosaurs should have just kept drinking the broth
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    There’s plenty of people who are more productive, working longer hours, have a better work/life balance, and are saving several hundred quid a month - by not spending three or four hours a day trying to get to and from central London.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    I don't doubt it. It's an unsurprisingly selfish attitude from the middle classes who have those marginal benefits to want to inflict social misery on the rest of the country so they can keep them.

    Loads of them will definitely fear the idea of decisions being made in the room a year from now while they sit in splendid isolation at home. I think that's partly why they want to keep everyone home, if no one can go into the office then they know there's no way they can be dragged in. If the office is open eventually people will gravitate towards it and they'll have an absolutely mega case of FOMO as well as being cut out of lunch and pub based decisions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,170
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    29312 cases, 119 deaths.

    Back on an upswing again then

    I'll check when I get home but I think this hews pretty close to my half arsed model.
    No cases by sample date are yet reporting higher than the previous week - that coincidentally last happened for 19/7 vs 12/7. So we are not on an upswing just yet, but I feel like the end of August will likely have slightly higher case rates than now - ticked up a little further by the restart of the Premier League and the likely relaxation of international holiday regulations - and those extra pub and plane opportunities to breathe other peoples' exhalates.
    What I can't fathom is how close we are to something akin to herd immunity, where infection decelerates to low levels.

    92% adult antibodies makes about 70% of the population plus whatever kids have been infected. A lot of that is due to vaccination which, though good at slowing spread and excellent at preventing hospitalisation only represents 50-75% immunity in terms of spread prevention. My best finger in the air guess is that the practical immunity level we have is around 60-70%, based on near full Delta immunity from prior infection and partial immunity from vaccination.

    And depending on the practical R within the UK, herd immunity for Delta should be around the 83-87% level.

    That means a further 14-27% immunity needs to be acquired to allow case rate deceleration in a fully open society, and that range makes a massive difference in how much acceleration is possible in infections before we approach that point, and how far braking distance will overshoot. Vaccinating 16/17 shaves 1-2% off that ultimately, but at, say, a midpoint of 20% further immunity needed, that needs 10% of the population unvaccinated and catching COVID (substantially kids) plus 30% of the already partially counted as immune vaccinated population getting COVID (other combinations are available). In a fully open society the possibility of acceleratimg to 5% of the population getting COVID in a single week en route is not ridiculous if people don't self limit or governments don't restrict some things.

    That amount of infection may still be more than we've had already.

    If anything the sizeable variation in modelling outcomes reflects that the infection, and its possible impact on the health service, is more unpredictable now than even at the beginning, even if there is, thankfully, a much lower ceiling on worst case. But, with open society we would sail closer to that worst case than we were able to do earlier.

    I still favour opening up gently, but it's a risk, and heaven alone knows how much dabbing the brakes will be needed this autumn.
    Cases by specimen date -

    image
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,471

    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    The dinosaurs should have just kept drinking the broth
    Now that's a plan!

    Seriously though these questions are simply enormous, and entirely fascinating.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    You norms inflicted your misery on us for all of human history, and now you can't even take a bit over a year of it being the other way around!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    rpjs said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    You norms inflicted your misery on us for all of human history, and now you can't even take a bit over a year of it being the other way around!
    Err, I never forced you to leave your house. There's 17% of people who want everyone to be forced to stay home forever. I find that quite alarming.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    "All of us animals" have by no means somehow managed to deal with all of the bugsof the past; that is the survivorship bias fallacy in its purest form. 99% of all species ever have gone extinct. The end Permian event wiped out about 95% of marine species and 70% of land species existing at the time. Ironically one clade which has made it all the way through is the dinosaurs. The place is lifting with the buggers. You probably call them birds, but the reason they are there is that their dinosaur ancestors survived the K-T extinction event just as your proto mammalian ones did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,420

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    I'm an introvert, and I wouldn't answer that option to apply for everyone through such a poll.

    I'm an introvert, not a dick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,420

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    Speaking personally my productivity has gone to shit. It's been a year and I still find it too easy to be distracted or dismotivated working from home, in addition to disliking the intrusion into my personal space.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,992
    MaxPB said:


    I don't doubt it. It's an unsurprisingly selfish attitude from the middle classes who have those marginal benefits to want to inflict social misery on the rest of the country so they can keep them.

    Loads of them will definitely fear the idea of decisions being made in the room a year from now while they sit in splendid isolation at home. I think that's partly why they want to keep everyone home, if no one can go into the office then they know there's no way they can be dragged in. If the office is open eventually people will gravitate towards it and they'll have an absolutely mega case of FOMO as well as being cut out of lunch and pub based decisions.

    This old chestnut you keep dragging out to justify your weak argument people should be back in offices.

    Most modern organisations don't function in the way you describe. The notion a small group want to keep everyone WFH so they alone can take the decisions is so absurd I'm surprised it's even taken seriously.

    My organisation (and those with which I deal) are universally either abandoning commercial office space entirely or looking for something that isn't banks of desks all packed together like battery hens - those days are over mercifully.

    The "office" will be a place for collaborative meetings and team working visited at most two days per week - that's what I'm hearing across both the private and public sectors. We are already seeing Councils such as West Berkshire and Cornwall putting up papers looking at reductions of up to 50% in office accommodation - why, because old-fashioned administrative offices are history.

    No one liked them, no one wants them and we've now discovered no one needs them.

    I've heard the equally banal comment on here people prefer air conditioned offices to working at home when it's hot. Perhaps but working at home will be attractive on dark, cold, wet November mornings and especially in the depths of winter.
  • kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    Speaking personally my productivity has gone to shit. It's been a year and I still find it too easy to be distracted or dismotivated working from home, in addition to disliking the intrusion into my personal space.
    One thing I've been good at is compartmentalising, another attribute I have is making sure things are done well before their deadline.

    I've missed my colleagues, I really have, I missed telling them my awesome jokes and puns, which makes them want to kill me.

    As much as I've benefited from working from home I'm not keen to do it full time once everything is ok.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    rpjs said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    You norms inflicted your misery on us for all of human history, and now you can't even take a bit over a year of it being the other way around!
    Err, I never forced you to leave your house. There's 17% of people who want everyone to be forced to stay home forever. I find that quite alarming.
    Yeah, I am overstating the case for lulz, but I think companies that will allow workers the option of full WFH where it makes sense will benefit. The company I work for hopes to re-open our offices in the autumn, but we have already been given the option to choose to permanently WFH of work-from-the-office. Both options will be flexible in that office workers won't have to come in every day, and remote workers won't be excluded from the office at all. They're also reconfiguring the offices to be more flexible workspaces (we were sorely running low on space before COVID), so only office-based workers who need a fixed location (e.g. software devs) will get one, and remote workers who come in for the day will have to hot desk. We aim to keep team cohesion between remote and office based workers by doing regular in-person get togethers, maybe once a half-year or once a quarter, probably as off-sites so everyone can expense the travel.

    I think that that should work pretty well: it gives the people who thrive on office life that option, but with the flexibility that they can WFH up to a couple of days a week if they need to, and it gives those who really resent the commute the option to WFH but can come in if they want or need to now or then.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    I'm an introvert, and I wouldn't answer that option to apply for everyone through such a poll.

    I'm an introvert, not a dick.
    We'll be the judge of that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    edited August 2021
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't doubt it. It's an unsurprisingly selfish attitude from the middle classes who have those marginal benefits to want to inflict social misery on the rest of the country so they can keep them.

    Loads of them will definitely fear the idea of decisions being made in the room a year from now while they sit in splendid isolation at home. I think that's partly why they want to keep everyone home, if no one can go into the office then they know there's no way they can be dragged in. If the office is open eventually people will gravitate towards it and they'll have an absolutely mega case of FOMO as well as being cut out of lunch and pub based decisions.

    This old chestnut you keep dragging out to justify your weak argument people should be back in offices.

    Most modern organisations don't function in the way you describe. The notion a small group want to keep everyone WFH so they alone can take the decisions is so absurd I'm surprised it's even taken seriously.

    My organisation (and those with which I deal) are universally either abandoning commercial office space entirely or looking for something that isn't banks of desks all packed together like battery hens - those days are over mercifully.

    The "office" will be a place for collaborative meetings and team working visited at most two days per week - that's what I'm hearing across both the private and public sectors. We are already seeing Councils such as West Berkshire and Cornwall putting up papers looking at reductions of up to 50% in office accommodation - why, because old-fashioned administrative offices are history.

    No one liked them, no one wants them and we've now discovered no one needs them.

    I've heard the equally banal comment on here people prefer air conditioned offices to working at home when it's hot. Perhaps but working at home will be attractive on dark, cold, wet November mornings and especially in the depths of winter.
    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 734
    I hate people.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,471
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    "All of us animals" have by no means somehow managed to deal with all of the bugsof the past; that is the survivorship bias fallacy in its purest form. 99% of all species ever have gone extinct. The end Permian event wiped out about 95% of marine species and 70% of land species existing at the time. Ironically one clade which has made it all the way through is the dinosaurs. The place is lifting with the buggers. You probably call them birds, but the reason they are there is that their dinosaur ancestors survived the K-T extinction event just as your proto mammalian ones did.
    Yes. You're entirely right. I wasn't thinking big enough.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,761

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    Speaking personally my productivity has gone to shit. It's been a year and I still find it too easy to be distracted or dismotivated working from home, in addition to disliking the intrusion into my personal space.
    One thing I've been good at is compartmentalising, another attribute I have is making sure things are done well before their deadline.

    I've missed my colleagues, I really have, I missed telling them my awesome jokes and puns, which makes them want to kill me.

    As much as I've benefited from working from home I'm not keen to do it full time once everything is ok.
    Why should they want to kill you because they’ve missed your awesome jokes and puns?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,156
    "Pub based decisions" - @MaxPB

    Not sure I like the sound of that. Bankruptcy beckons, moral and financial.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,992
    Evening all :)

    According to someone in Epping, the German election is a "snoozefest" not worthy of our attention.

    Here's the latest Kantar poll:

    Union CDU/CSU: 24% (-9)
    Greens: 22% (+13)
    Social Democrats: 18% (-3)
    Free Democrats: 13% (+2)
    Alternative for Germany: 11% (-2)
    Left: 6% (-3)
    Others 6% (+2)

    Changes since the last Bundestag election in 2017.

    In the last month, a 3% swing from the Union to the Greens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,970
    kjh said:

    isam said:

    ...

    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK recorded 29,312 coronavirus cases in last 24 hours.
    Here’s how we compare to other countries:

    🇬🇧 UK - 29,312

    🇫🇷 FRANCE - 1,996
    🇩🇪 GERMANY - 1,776
    🇪🇸 SPAIN - 4,954
    🇮🇹 ITALY - 3,185

    🇺🇸 USA - 15,081
    🇧🇷 BRAZIL - 20,503
    🇮🇳 INDIA - 30,549
    🇮🇩 INDONESIA - 33,900
    (Data: @who)
    https://twitter.com/mrmikecowan/status/1422939172902514688

    Ummm, are we absolutely sure the numbers for the other countries are correct?
    They aren't...e.g. US 15k....its more like 150k....

    And this is a BBC journalist....f##king morons in the media again.
    There should really be a warning whenever Scott'n'Paste posts.
    More blue on blue action!

    Don't forget Scott is a loyal Cameron Tory.
    Or is a Tory only a Tory these days if they follow the gospel of St. Boris?
    Are the Lib Dems the only party that aren't rife with divison?

    As you say, there are a lot of Cameroons at War with Boris
    Obviously Sir Keir's Centrists and the Corbynites
    The Greens I think I heard were split?
    Sturgeon vs Salmond
    I'm willing to have an argument with another LD if you want. I'll argue with anyone.
    If you can find another one.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880
    I have heard today from a reasonable source that Government departments have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    ZOE are reporting likely around 60,000 cases a day. Anecdotally that fits what I'm encountering.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,840
    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    Coronavirus colds are broadly COVID, but with immunity acquired mostly in early childhood (and even in breast milk) and topped up through life, it means that subsequent doses are almost invariably mild. The evolutionary path is not ever increasing infectiousness, but the ability to evade immunity just enough to keep spreading, and pretty much only in winter. Within a very few years COVID too should meet that fate.

    The possibility that the 1890 pandemic, the worst of that century, was a now well domesticated coronavirus is not one I'm fully convinced by, but it's a fascinating possibility.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    "All of us animals" have by no means somehow managed to deal with all of the bugsof the past; that is the survivorship bias fallacy in its purest form. 99% of all species ever have gone extinct. The end Permian event wiped out about 95% of marine species and 70% of land species existing at the time. Ironically one clade which has made it all the way through is the dinosaurs. The place is lifting with the buggers. You probably call them birds, but the reason they are there is that their dinosaur ancestors survived the K-T extinction event just as your proto mammalian ones did.
    Yes. You're entirely right. I wasn't thinking big enough.
    It is a highly seductive fallacy. I genuinely used to think that maybe the Nazi death camps weren't as bad as they might have been, because all the inmates who wrote books about them survived them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,346
    edited August 2021
    Heathener said:

    I have heard today from a reasonable source that Government departments have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    ZOE are reporting likely around 60,000 cases a day. Anecdotally that fits what I'm encountering.

    No they haven’t.

    No it isn’t.
  • ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    Speaking personally my productivity has gone to shit. It's been a year and I still find it too easy to be distracted or dismotivated working from home, in addition to disliking the intrusion into my personal space.
    One thing I've been good at is compartmentalising, another attribute I have is making sure things are done well before their deadline.

    I've missed my colleagues, I really have, I missed telling them my awesome jokes and puns, which makes them want to kill me.

    As much as I've benefited from working from home I'm not keen to do it full time once everything is ok.
    Why should they want to kill you because they’ve missed your awesome jokes and puns?
    It is more that my jokes make them feel bad for laughing at them.

    “Viagra has instructions: ‘Keep away from children’ – what kind of man do you think I am?”

    and

    “Throwing acid is wrong. In some people’s eyes.”

    I'll not share the Islamophobic ones lest someone emails Mike again to complain about my Islamophobia.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,992
    MaxPB said:


    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.

    The last desperate argument of the reactionary office worker who doesn't realise the world has changed and remote/hybrid working is the way of the future with collaborative decision making no longer needing everyone to be in the same physical space.

    Come and join the rest of us !
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880
    And the DWP have been told to expect lockdown in October.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,413
    edited August 2021
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't doubt it. It's an unsurprisingly selfish attitude from the middle classes who have those marginal benefits to want to inflict social misery on the rest of the country so they can keep them.

    Loads of them will definitely fear the idea of decisions being made in the room a year from now while they sit in splendid isolation at home. I think that's partly why they want to keep everyone home, if no one can go into the office then they know there's no way they can be dragged in. If the office is open eventually people will gravitate towards it and they'll have an absolutely mega case of FOMO as well as being cut out of lunch and pub based decisions.

    This old chestnut you keep dragging out to justify your weak argument people should be back in offices.

    Most modern organisations don't function in the way you describe. The notion a small group want to keep everyone WFH so they alone can take the decisions is so absurd I'm surprised it's even taken seriously.

    My organisation (and those with which I deal) are universally either abandoning commercial office space entirely or looking for something that isn't banks of desks all packed together like battery hens - those days are over mercifully.

    The "office" will be a place for collaborative meetings and team working visited at most two days per week - that's what I'm hearing across both the private and public sectors. We are already seeing Councils such as West Berkshire and Cornwall putting up papers looking at reductions of up to 50% in office accommodation - why, because old-fashioned administrative offices are history.

    No one liked them, no one wants them and we've now discovered no one needs them.

    I've heard the equally banal comment on here people prefer air conditioned offices to working at home when it's hot. Perhaps but working at home will be attractive on dark, cold, wet November mornings and especially in the depths of winter.
    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.
    The vast majority of office workers weren't in the room when decisions were made in the first place.
    They were outside waiting to be told what to do.
    For many it is easier to take orders at home.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,346
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.

    The last desperate argument of the reactionary office worker who doesn't realise the world has changed and remote/hybrid working is the way of the future with collaborative decision making no longer needing everyone to be in the same physical space.

    Come and join the rest of us !
    It’s not the collaborative decision making that’s the issue.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    I have heard today from a reasonable source that Government departments have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    ZOE are reporting likely around 60,000 cases a day. Anecdotally that fits what I'm encountering.

    No they haven’t.

    No it isn’t.
    Vladimir didn't turn up until later in the evening last time.

    In other news, a collared dove (an exceptionally dim species) appears to have decided to lay an egg in one of my window boxes. This isn't going to end well.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,627
    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    According to someone in Epping, the German election is a "snoozefest" not worthy of our attention.

    Here's the latest Kantar poll:

    Union CDU/CSU: 24% (-9)
    Greens: 22% (+13)
    Social Democrats: 18% (-3)
    Free Democrats: 13% (+2)
    Alternative for Germany: 11% (-2)
    Left: 6% (-3)
    Others 6% (+2)

    Changes since the last Bundestag election in 2017.

    In the last month, a 3% swing from the Union to the Greens.

    Laschet appears to be in trouble because he was seen laughing in the background on TV when the President was giving a speech. I still expect him to become chancellor but the Scholz is starting to look like a real value bet (while still a bit of a long shot) if you take personal ratings into account.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880
    pigeon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    I have heard today from a reasonable source that Government departments have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    ZOE are reporting likely around 60,000 cases a day. Anecdotally that fits what I'm encountering.

    No they haven’t.

    No it isn’t.
    Vladimir didn't turn up until later in the evening last time.
    Presumably however amazing Mr Seal thinks he is, he doesn't work for the DWP and he isn't a Government minister.

    Aside from that, it's obvious we're going to have a surge this autumn. The vaccines aren't working as well against the Delta variant as we had hoped. Look at Israel if you wish to ignore the UK. And that's just Delta.
  • Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    It's the new false positives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,761
    pigeon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    I have heard today from a reasonable source that Government departments have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    ZOE are reporting likely around 60,000 cases a day. Anecdotally that fits what I'm encountering.

    No they haven’t.

    No it isn’t.
    Vladimir didn't turn up until later in the evening last time.

    In other news, a collared dove (an exceptionally dim species) appears to have decided to lay an egg in one of my window boxes. This isn't going to end well.
    She must have got her ideas scrambled.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,682
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    Indeed.

    Speaking to my team over the last week about the return to work (we're looking at 2 days in the office and 3 at home a week until February) I have noticed a bit of a split emerging.

    Parents who have long commutes prefer the WFH model, reckon their productivity is improved by not having to wake up at 5am to catch a rammed train.

    I reckon part of that 17% are the ones who have seen some benefits from staying at home for a year.

    Also the money saving angle is something to factor in as well.
    There’s plenty of people who are more productive, working longer hours, have a better work/life balance, and are saving several hundred quid a month - by not spending three or four hours a day trying to get to and from central London.
    Other cities are also available.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,992
    dixiedean said:


    The vast majority of office workers weren't in the room when decisions were made in the first place.
    They were outside waiting to be told what to do.
    For many it is easier to take orders at home.

    I have the sense some rather miss the "work hard play hard" culture of the 1980s office when it was de rigueur to go out drinking most nights with the lads from work.

    The one thing I do notice is lunch - unlike that tribune of the people, @Leon (or SeanT or Martin Day or whatever he calls himself these days), who lunched at The Groucho the other day, I had my lunch in a cafe in the Barking Road.

    Yet I would imagine I'm much more representative of the "metropolitan liberal elite" but there you go.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,346
    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Zoe dropped To 46,906 today. How’s the weather in St Petersburg?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,761

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    Three times this has happened now.

    First it was BA pilots, then it was Holocaust survivors comparing restrictions to the Nazis, now it’s DWP insiders.

    Why do they do this? Does Vladimir Putin have a very small penis or something?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.

    The last desperate argument of the reactionary office worker who doesn't realise the world has changed and remote/hybrid working is the way of the future with collaborative decision making no longer needing everyone to be in the same physical space.

    Come and join the rest of us !
    A year from now we'll know, assuming no more idiotic lockdowns.

    I actually half agree with you tbf and I'm just pushing your buttons because boredom, office space will be rationalised and I think in a lot of cases jobs will be as well over the medium term as a bunch of functionary roles will be merged or binned off entirely because presenteeism will be a lesser factor in performance reviews.

    I think what will happen is that the comfortable middle management will find this will happen to their detriment as their utility is suddenly realised as fairly marginal. My sister has already been asked to trim middle management fat at her employer and she's got buy in from the board to get rid of loads of people who previously benefited from presenteeism but now no longer do so.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,471
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    "All of us animals" have by no means somehow managed to deal with all of the bugsof the past; that is the survivorship bias fallacy in its purest form. 99% of all species ever have gone extinct. The end Permian event wiped out about 95% of marine species and 70% of land species existing at the time. Ironically one clade which has made it all the way through is the dinosaurs. The place is lifting with the buggers. You probably call them birds, but the reason they are there is that their dinosaur ancestors survived the K-T extinction event just as your proto mammalian ones did.
    Yes. You're entirely right. I wasn't thinking big enough.
    It is a highly seductive fallacy. I genuinely used to think that maybe the Nazi death camps weren't as bad as they might have been, because all the inmates who wrote books about them survived them.
    Indeed, I wasn't entirely guilty of falling for it, just mostly.

    To me, it now seems quite likely that we're all blighted by viruses, and also of course boosted by their fellows in our mitochondria. Perhaps (and this is just a nonsense thought) maybe things like aging could be cured by just getting rid of the virus concerned.

    I rather like not knowing, and that's an easy place to find myself, but it's easy to slip into the idea that you know. Less so these days.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,597

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    Certainly numbers have plateaued in my Trust, at about 20% of the February peak. Not going up, but not really going down either.
  • rpjs said:

    MaxPB said:

    rpjs said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    Don't try and inflict that misery on the rest of us. I don't understand that mentality given they are free to not go out.
    You norms inflicted your misery on us for all of human history, and now you can't even take a bit over a year of it being the other way around!
    Err, I never forced you to leave your house. There's 17% of people who want everyone to be forced to stay home forever. I find that quite alarming.
    Yeah, I am overstating the case for lulz, but I think companies that will allow workers the option of full WFH where it makes sense will benefit. The company I work for hopes to re-open our offices in the autumn, but we have already been given the option to choose to permanently WFH of work-from-the-office. Both options will be flexible in that office workers won't have to come in every day, and remote workers won't be excluded from the office at all. They're also reconfiguring the offices to be more flexible workspaces (we were sorely running low on space before COVID), so only office-based workers who need a fixed location (e.g. software devs) will get one, and remote workers who come in for the day will have to hot desk. We aim to keep team cohesion between remote and office based workers by doing regular in-person get togethers, maybe once a half-year or once a quarter, probably as off-sites so everyone can expense the travel.

    I think that that should work pretty well: it gives the people who thrive on office life that option, but with the flexibility that they can WFH up to a couple of days a week if they need to, and it gives those who really resent the commute the option to WFH but can come in if they want or need to now or then.
    Not really clear why programmers need fixed locations but good luck anyway. Perhaps they can write you a good space-booking app, so people (and more importantly teams) can be sure of somewhere to sit when they do come in.

    It is possible many companies will choose the worst of both worlds. I worked for a global megacorp which did something like you describe, and this was pre-covid, but it did not do much for team spirit or company bonding.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,346
    Heathener said:

    And the DWP have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    The Department for Work and Pensions? All of them? What, did they all get an email telling them to expect a lockdown in October? Did anyone reply-all?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    I have heard today from a reasonable source that Government departments have been told to expect lockdown in October.

    ZOE are reporting likely around 60,000 cases a day. Anecdotally that fits what I'm encountering.

    No they haven’t.

    No it isn’t.
    Vladimir didn't turn up until later in the evening last time.

    In other news, a collared dove (an exceptionally dim species) appears to have decided to lay an egg in one of my window boxes. This isn't going to end well.
    She must have got her ideas scrambled.
    The egg is certainly scrambled: it's a long way down from the second floor.

    This has not, however, prevented the bird from making repeated attempts to sit in the window box.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,627
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    Lockdowns are a blunt tool to be used when nothing else will work. Look at the data we have now. Huge case numbers, vastly reduced hospital numbers and deaths. That’s the vaccines. This isn’t going to change in winter. Cases may well go up, schools and unis may drive it a bit, plus more inside mixing, but the horrific link from cases to deaths is severely weakened. Many of those in hospital now are unvaccinated. Vaccines ain’t perfect, but they are amazing and have transformed the situation. I strongly suspect you are a troll telling lies. No idea why.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,203
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    Certainly numbers have plateaued in my Trust, at about 20% of the February peak. Not going up, but not really going down either.
    That the funnel has already equalised is a pretty good sign, IMO. In the previous waves it took a lot longer for that to feed through.

    We'll probably hang about at between R~0.9-1.1 over the next few weeks until we hit herd immunity in late September after schools are back and the booster programme feeds through.
  • Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Well, yes, there is that. Someone in Gov't with foresight has presumably put the suggestion out. But as you say, the right hand doesn't seem to know what the left is doing. And there's Boris flip-flopping on a daily basis.

    On the more general point, I'm certain official stats are currently under-estimating, that people are gung-ho blase about this, that the vaccines are not working as well as we had hoped and that all data considered, we're heading for another wave this autumn. That may be of Delta or it be of a further variant which continues Delta's work of undermining vaccination. Regrettably we are short of herd immunity, as evidenced by the R number which is well above 1.0 at present.

    Now if that's called trolling then it's a very peculiar definition of the term.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,597
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    I expect that every department is working on contingency plans. There is always the possibility that a mutation will bring a vaccine resistant strain, requiring some speedy vaccine engineering.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,880
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    Certainly numbers have plateaued in my Trust, at about 20% of the February peak. Not going up, but not really going down either.
    That the funnel has already equalised is a pretty good sign, IMO. In the previous waves it took a lot longer for that to feed through.

    We'll probably hang about at between R~0.9-1.1 over the next few weeks until we hit herd immunity in late September after schools are back and the booster programme feeds through.
    It's currently 1.1 to 1.4

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate

    We're nowhere near herd immunity
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,627

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    Open to interpret. I think he means the fiasco around the broken parliament trying to frustrate Brexit, but he could perhaps have spoken more clearly...
This discussion has been closed.