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The UK vaccination programme nearly 8 months after the first jab – politicalbetting.com

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  • FossFoss Posts: 567
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.

    The last desperate argument of the reactionary office worker who doesn't realise the world has changed and remote/hybrid working is the way of the future with collaborative decision making no longer needing everyone to be in the same physical space.

    Come and join the rest of us !
    A year from now we'll know, assuming no more idiotic lockdowns.

    I actually half agree with you tbf and I'm just pushing your buttons because boredom, office space will be rationalised and I think in a lot of cases jobs will be as well over the medium term as a bunch of functionary roles will be merged or binned off entirely because presenteeism will be a lesser factor in performance reviews.

    I think what will happen is that the comfortable middle management will find this will happen to their detriment as their utility is suddenly realised as fairly marginal. My sister has already been asked to trim middle management fat at her employer and she's got buy in from the board to get rid of loads of people who previously benefited from presenteeism but now no longer do so.
    Perhaps they'll end up doing something useful and then we can stop hearing about the productivity crisis.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    Certainly numbers have plateaued in my Trust, at about 20% of the February peak. Not going up, but not really going down either.
    That the funnel has already equalised is a pretty good sign, IMO. In the previous waves it took a lot longer for that to feed through.

    We'll probably hang about at between R~0.9-1.1 over the next few weeks until we hit herd immunity in late September after schools are back and the booster programme feeds through.
    Of course, last summer my Trust had only a handful of cases at this point in August!
  • Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    I expect that every department is working on contingency plans. There is always the possibility that a mutation will bring a vaccine resistant strain, requiring some speedy vaccine engineering.
    So are so many businesses.
  • Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    Brexit was a political fiasco from 2017-19.

    That's why the public was so relieved that it was got done.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Well, yes, there is that. Someone in Gov't with foresight has presumably put the suggestion out. But as you say, the right hand doesn't seem to know what the left is doing. And there's Boris flip-flopping on a daily basis.

    On the more general point, I'm certain official stats are currently under-estimating, that people are gung-ho blase about this, that the vaccines are not working as well as we had hoped and that all data considered, we're heading for another wave this autumn. That may be of Delta or it be of a further variant which continues Delta's work of undermining vaccination. Regrettably we are short of herd immunity, as evidenced by the R number which is well above 1.0 at present.

    Now if that's called trolling then it's a very peculiar definition of the term.
    And what is r currents. On cases in the last week it is below 1.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,023

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    And? The politicians didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Well, yes, there is that. Someone in Gov't with foresight has presumably put the suggestion out. But as you say, the right hand doesn't seem to know what the left is doing. And there's Boris flip-flopping on a daily basis.

    On the more general point, I'm certain official stats are currently under-estimating, that people are gung-ho blase about this, that the vaccines are not working as well as we had hoped and that all data considered, we're heading for another wave this autumn. That may be of Delta or it be of a further variant which continues Delta's work of undermining vaccination. Regrettably we are short of herd immunity, as evidenced by the R number which is well above 1.0 at present.

    Now if that's called trolling then it's a very peculiar definition of the term.
    Can you link to the data that provides you with such certainty?
  • Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    Brexit was a political fiasco from 2017-19.

    That's why the public was so relieved that it was got done.
    Here's clearly aiming at his fellow Brexiteers.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    I expect that every department is working on contingency plans. There is always the possibility that a mutation will bring a vaccine resistant strain, requiring some speedy vaccine engineering.
    That would be a dramatic break with recent tradition. It’s not that long ago they were refusing to work on contingency plans in case it encouraged people to think the virus was out of control.

    If, big if, these claims are accurate it’s much more likely to be some mid-ranking pessimist sounding their mouth off.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Well, yes, there is that. Someone in Gov't with foresight has presumably put the suggestion out. But as you say, the right hand doesn't seem to know what the left is doing. And there's Boris flip-flopping on a daily basis.

    On the more general point, I'm certain official stats are currently under-estimating, that people are gung-ho blase about this, that the vaccines are not working as well as we had hoped and that all data considered, we're heading for another wave this autumn. That may be of Delta or it be of a further variant which continues Delta's work of undermining vaccination. Regrettably we are short of herd immunity, as evidenced by the R number which is well above 1.0 at present.

    Now if that's called trolling then it's a very peculiar definition of the term.
    Пожалуйста
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    p.s. by the way it's fantastically infantile as well as incredibly closed-shop to tar any newcomer with a 'troll' brush. I'm interested in politics and happen to be rather concerned by what I'm witnessing about cases at the moment. Two months ago I was optimistic. I'm not any more.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    The bigger issue with that tweet is the supporter of a government led by the most elitist cabinet in decades, and an MP whose party has been in power for over a decade is seeking to pretend Keir Starmer is the decision maker and more elite than the likes of Boris and JRM. Both are nonsense.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    Brexit was a political fiasco from 2017-19.

    That's why the public was so relieved that it was got done.
    Here's clearly aiming at his fellow Brexiteers.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit
    Perpetual revolution against the Four Olds? What could possibly go wrong?
  • CandyCandy Posts: 51
    kinabalu said:



    But what about the point that rich countries are vaccinating young people before much of the poorer world has received supplies for their elderly and high risk?

    We've already started to give away our spare Astrazeneca doses as most people who needed a second jab of AZ have had one:

    See

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-begins-donating-millions-of-covid-19-vaccines-overseas

    817,000 AZ doses to Kenya, which should be enough to cover all their over 65s.

    We're also donating to Indonesia and Jamaica amongst other countries. They started flying out the doses on 28th July.

    All the countries getting the AZ are aware that we've given AZ to about 60% of our adults, so we're not sending them stuff that we wouldn't give to our own citizens.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,023
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/57630566

    This year's Rugby League World Cup, which was due to be held in England in the autumn, will be postponed until 2022 after the withdrawal of defending champions Australia, and New Zealand.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    Heathener said:

    p.s. by the way it's fantastically infantile as well as incredibly closed-shop to tar any newcomer with a 'troll' brush. I'm interested in politics and happen to be rather concerned by what I'm witnessing about cases at the moment. Two months ago I was optimistic. I'm not any more.

    Again, can you point me to the modelling that predicts with such certainty a lockdown in October?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    Brexit was a political fiasco from 2017-19.

    That's why the public was so relieved that it was got done.
    Here's clearly aiming at his fellow Brexiteers.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit
    I love it when a plan comes together.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Actually, whether our new comrade is indeed a comrade or not, last April a mate of mine who worked at National Grid said they had been told to prepare for an October lockdown. And lo it came to pass.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,355
    edited August 2021
    We have just had a swarm of flying ants and the seagulls have gone utterly crazy

    Also a neighbour and her family have just run up the road covered in the ants and fled into their house

    Apparently they intoxicate the seagulls and indeed my daughter has just text to say she has passed two dead gulls on her road having been run over by cars

    And she lives 10 miles from us

    Nature is amazing
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,052
    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    MaxPB said:


    A year from now we'll know, assuming no more idiotic lockdowns.

    I actually half agree with you tbf and I'm just pushing your buttons because boredom, office space will be rationalised and I think in a lot of cases jobs will be as well over the medium term as a bunch of functionary roles will be merged or binned off entirely because presenteeism will be a lesser factor in performance reviews.

    I think what will happen is that the comfortable middle management will find this will happen to their detriment as their utility is suddenly realised as fairly marginal. My sister has already been asked to trim middle management fat at her employer and she's got buy in from the board to get rid of loads of people who previously benefited from presenteeism but now no longer do so.

    You'll have to do a bit better to "push my buttons" but, fair enough.

    I'm going to meet you some of the way because I think you're right there will be a shake-out of some roles. I've already heard a number of Councils saying they are going to have to carry out some fairly stringent reviews of staffing as a result of what has happened and the comment you make about presenteeism is spot on.

    To make a more general point, the last 16 months or so have forced individuals, families, communities, organisations, Governments (indeed, all of us) to focus and think about what really matters and what doesn't. The conclusions will be many and varied but will inform how we move forward in the next decade or so.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Heathener said:

    p.s. by the way it's fantastically infantile as well as incredibly closed-shop to tar any newcomer with a 'troll' brush. I'm interested in politics and happen to be rather concerned by what I'm witnessing about cases at the moment. Two months ago I was optimistic. I'm not any more.

    On the off chance you are genuine, you have the greatest of misfortunes to be exactly mimicking two other posters who arrived and started peddling shit as soon as they appeared. Always FOAF stuff, like the ba pilots, or now dwp. Pretty sure the newspapers would already have such a story as the government is more leaky than an entire allotment of leeks. Stick around, post some intelligent comment and we’ll see. If you make it that far...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651
    Heathener said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October when the government modelling does not indicate that, I have no idea, other to perhaps think a new pb account, immediately setting out to provoke, may just be a troll...
    Certainly numbers have plateaued in my Trust, at about 20% of the February peak. Not going up, but not really going down either.
    That the funnel has already equalised is a pretty good sign, IMO. In the previous waves it took a lot longer for that to feed through.

    We'll probably hang about at between R~0.9-1.1 over the next few weeks until we hit herd immunity in late September after schools are back and the booster programme feeds through.
    It's currently 1.1 to 1.4

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate

    We're nowhere near herd immunity
    That's based on ONS data which runs about two weeks behind the case data. On Friday we'll get an update that will be a look back at what the situation was around July 19th to July 26th.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    Why do you suspect we are heading for problems? You do know that Zoe is currently showing a fall in incidence, right? The reason I’m asking is that making these predictions without evidence is quite serious as they have not insignificant impacts on people’s mental health.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Actually, whether our new comrade is indeed a comrade or not, last April a mate of mine who worked at National Grid said they had been told to prepare for an October lockdown. And lo it came to pass.
    Well, November, but nearly.
  • TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    DougSeal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-daily-coronavirus-data-looks-a-bit-fishy-says-professor-behind-uks-largest-symptom-study-12371076

    Tim Spector and ZOE study suggests the true figure probably nearer 60,000.

    As I said, that fits what I'm seeing (anecdotally). A lot of people are refusing to get tested and a significant number are also refusing to self-isolate.

    Ok I’ll bite. Presumably all those people who are refusing to get tested are refusing to be admitted to hospital and refusing to die too... Basically we’ve moved on from cases. Vaccines mean that the only game in town is hospitalisation and death.
    Quite why you think government departments are being briefed to expect lockdown in October
    Because I was told it by someone on the inside this afternoon. Not trolling. I was intrigued although not wholly surprised.
    You do realise this is a government that decides things day to day based on the reaction to yesterdays press headlines? The idea that they have thought ahead to October is simply absurd!
    Actually, whether our new comrade is indeed a comrade or not, last April a mate of mine who worked at National Grid said they had been told to prepare for an October lockdown. And lo it came to pass.
    Well, November, but nearly.
    Yes I was wondering when it was but he def told me. I might have posted it here at the time.

    But I think whatever happens a lockdown of the type we have previously seen ain't gonna happen. More a series of nudges. At the extreme some restrictions on numbers at events.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Has anything interesting happened today in the world of politics? Been offline until just now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited August 2021
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    According to someone in Epping, the German election is a "snoozefest" not worthy of our attention.

    Here's the latest Kantar poll:

    Union CDU/CSU: 24% (-9)
    Greens: 22% (+13)
    Social Democrats: 18% (-3)
    Free Democrats: 13% (+2)
    Alternative for Germany: 11% (-2)
    Left: 6% (-3)
    Others 6% (+2)

    Changes since the last Bundestag election in 2017.

    In the last month, a 3% swing from the Union to the Greens.

    Still the Greens, SPD and Left do not have the numbers even combined for a majority.

    Still a Union-Green coalition looks the likeliest outcome, there is a slim chance of an SPD-Green-FDP deal but the FDP have too many differences on economic policy with them for that to be likely. At most the FDP might support a coalition between their traditional allies the Union and the Greens to ensure it has a majority.

    Plus I always said the Union would have done far better with Soder than Laschet as their chancellor candidate but that does not change the fact they are still likely to end up in power again in September in another grand coalition, even with losses
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited August 2021
    Heathener said:

    p.s. by the way it's fantastically infantile as well as incredibly closed-shop to tar any newcomer with a 'troll' brush. I'm interested in politics and happen to be rather concerned by what I'm witnessing about cases at the moment. Two months ago I was optimistic. I'm not any more.

    You ain’t shit on PB until you’ve been accused of being a Russian astroturfer or one of SeanT’s multiple identities. Or both.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651
    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    My main reason for wanting majority in office time, personally speaking, is that I want to separate home life from work. I don't mind putting in the odd late night or early start but I do mind being "having my laptop" at all times. I'll be glad when I can leave at my work desk overnight again and only be contactable on work hours or for emergency situations (which are limited now in my role, I actually can't think of a scenario where I'd be called back from a holiday, for example).

    My wife and I were talking about it over the weekend, her office is right next to my new office and the one thing we'd miss about wfh is the lunches/coffees/walks we have together so being able to do that in Liverpool Street will be nice.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Monkeys said:

    I hate people.

    Why?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
    And yet doctors and therapists are doing it as a matter of course.
    Leaking details of the Budget used to be a resigning matter too.
    Things change.
  • dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
    And yet doctors and therapists are doing it as a matter of course.
    Leaking details of the Budget used to be a resigning matter too.
    Things change.
    I know.

    But when you run the Regulatory Affairs department of a banking and financial services company you have to exercise extreme caution in this area.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
  • Well now.

    The chairman of the Conservative Party is using his business partner in a secretive company to help manage party donors and arrange access to Boris Johnson.

    Ben Elliot is already under intense scrutiny over the overlap between his party and business roles as co-founder of Quintessentially, a luxury concierge business. Today it can be revealed that he is using his co-director in another company to conduct political activities.

    Jakob Widecki, his partner at Hod Hill, also holds a previously undisclosed role in Elliot’s team at Conservative headquarters. The Times has also learnt that Elliot uses his Quintessentially email address, rather than a Conservative account, for party business.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-chairmans-business-partner-arranges-access-to-pm-for-donors-9j6fpxhn3
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,947
    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Opinionpolliltis is the diagnosis.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Has anything interesting happened today in the world of politics? Been offline until just now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58091693
  • Rugby League World Cup 2021 set to be postponed until 2022 following withdrawals
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643

    Well now.

    The chairman of the Conservative Party is using his business partner in a secretive company to help manage party donors and arrange access to Boris Johnson.

    Ben Elliot is already under intense scrutiny over the overlap between his party and business roles as co-founder of Quintessentially, a luxury concierge business. Today it can be revealed that he is using his co-director in another company to conduct political activities.

    Jakob Widecki, his partner at Hod Hill, also holds a previously undisclosed role in Elliot’s team at Conservative headquarters. The Times has also learnt that Elliot uses his Quintessentially email address, rather than a Conservative account, for party business.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-chairmans-business-partner-arranges-access-to-pm-for-donors-9j6fpxhn3

    Drenched in sleaze.
  • Rugby League World Cup 2021 set to be postponed until 2022 following withdrawals

    We should withdraw from this winter's Ashes as retaliation.

    This has nothing to do with the fact we will get pummelled in The Ashes this winter.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    HYUFD said:


    Still the Greens, SPD and Left do not have the numbers even combined for a majority.

    Still a Union-Green coalition looks the likeliest outcome, there is a slim chance of an SPD-Green-FDP deal but the FDP have too many differences on economic policy with them for that to be likely. At most the FDP might support a coalition between their traditional allies the Union and the Greens to ensure it has a majority.

    Plus I always said the Union would have done far better with Soder than Laschet as their chancellor candidate but that does not change the fact they are still likely to end up in power again in September in another grand coalition, even with losses

    I certainly agree (and there's plenty of polling evidence) Soder would have been the better candidate electorally for the Union. I saw some polls showing a Soder-led CDU-CSU polling in the mid to high 30s but the fact is for whatever reason the CDU chose Laschet.

    There are seven weeks to go and this is one poll so a huge bucket of salt mixed with caveats required.

    As you say, Lindner has so far ruled out serving in a Green-led Government

    https://kfgo.com/2021/06/20/german-liberal-fdp-rules-out-coalition-with-greens-after-election-bild/

    However, that doesn't necessarily exclude serving in a Government with Green Ministers led by another party. Now, I'm going to propose that while that could be a Government led by the CDU/CSU (how do the latter feel about the Greens?), it could also be a coalition led by the SPD.

    An SPD-led Government, containing both Green and FPD Ministers may not be entirely inconceivable and of course we know what a politician says to gain advantage before the votes are cast and what they do after the votes are cast may not necessarily be identical.

  • theProletheProle Posts: 706
    edited August 2021

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.

    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bite claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say, the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    4h
    JCVI appear to be treating the choice as vaccine vs no vaccine, when the real choice is vaccination vs infection (given infection rates). So if they really want to evaluate risk-benefit they also need to consider the risks of infection, that are far greater than vaccination.



    Seems a good point to me.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
    Every FCA Market Watch has been full of almost nothing else these past few months.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 737
    edited August 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Monkeys said:

    I hate people.

    Why?
    They ask too many questions!

    edit: Well I'm being facetious but I can see why people don't want to return to offices. For a subset of the population, myself included, social interaction is more draining than it is for others, and WFH allows us to do our jobs without the need for as much recovery time. Though I'm not making a moral argument that WFH is superior, just that there's diversity in psychology and some people benefit from it and some lose out.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036

    Well now.

    The chairman of the Conservative Party is using his business partner in a secretive company to help manage party donors and arrange access to Boris Johnson.

    Ben Elliot is already under intense scrutiny over the overlap between his party and business roles as co-founder of Quintessentially, a luxury concierge business. Today it can be revealed that he is using his co-director in another company to conduct political activities.

    Jakob Widecki, his partner at Hod Hill, also holds a previously undisclosed role in Elliot’s team at Conservative headquarters. The Times has also learnt that Elliot uses his Quintessentially email address, rather than a Conservative account, for party business.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-chairmans-business-partner-arranges-access-to-pm-for-donors-9j6fpxhn3

    The Tory party funds itself by selling access to ministers. Everyone knows this, and somehow we seem to have decided that it's fine, when in fact it is corrupt AF. Nothing they could do would shock me anymore, and I don't think these latest allegations will have any electoral impact at all. The Britain that was upset by sleaze doesn't seem to exist anymore.
  • Well now.

    The chairman of the Conservative Party is using his business partner in a secretive company to help manage party donors and arrange access to Boris Johnson.

    Ben Elliot is already under intense scrutiny over the overlap between his party and business roles as co-founder of Quintessentially, a luxury concierge business. Today it can be revealed that he is using his co-director in another company to conduct political activities.

    Jakob Widecki, his partner at Hod Hill, also holds a previously undisclosed role in Elliot’s team at Conservative headquarters. The Times has also learnt that Elliot uses his Quintessentially email address, rather than a Conservative account, for party business.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-chairmans-business-partner-arranges-access-to-pm-for-donors-9j6fpxhn3

    Drenched in sleaze.
    Clearly the people involved ought to shuffle off the stage and never be heard of again.

    They need to be above suspicion, and they're not.

    But unless there's a mechanism to force them to go, they won't go, will they?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    jayfdee said:

    MaxPB said:

    Update from my friend who had serious COVID - she's now able to do light exercise without experiencing shortness of breath. The consultant has said because of her age she will make a 100% recovery and there's no sign of any virus on her lungs or bloodstream. She works for a tech startup and they've offered to pay for a personal trainer for her to aid her recovery over the next three months as well. She's going to be in better shape on the other side of this than when she started 😆

    Good to hear, too many people think it is a minor flu like thing. Good on the employer looking after their people.
    It's quite odd that covid seems so widely disabling. Perhaps colds and flu etc do us much more damage than we suspect. Noone's noticed because everyone gets colds. If we managed to wipe out the cold viruses would that be a good thing, or would it open an evolutionary window to things much worse?

    It's a pretty fantastic thing that all of us animals have somehow managed to have just enough defences to deal with the bugs that undoubtedly have happened in the past. Perhaps though the end of the dinosaurs was a bug?

    Covid is changing the questions.
    "All of us animals" have by no means somehow managed to deal with all of the bugsof the past; that is the survivorship bias fallacy in its purest form. 99% of all species ever have gone extinct. The end Permian event wiped out about 95% of marine species and 70% of land species existing at the time. Ironically one clade which has made it all the way through is the dinosaurs. The place is lifting with the buggers. You probably call them birds, but the reason they are there is that their dinosaur ancestors survived the K-T extinction event just as your proto mammalian ones did.
    Yes. You're entirely right. I wasn't thinking big enough.
    It is a highly seductive fallacy. I genuinely used to think that maybe the Nazi death camps weren't as bad as they might have been, because all the inmates who wrote books about them survived them.
    Indeed. Same (though, obviously, not to the same degree) with, say, RAF Bomber Command, or the U-bootwaffe.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    theProle said:

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.
    If the government persists with this without real democratic consent, as the various deadlines start to bite and actually effect people's lives it's going to become very unpopular.
    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bute claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
    Except global warming and climate change is happening NOW, and perhaps worse than scientists predicted.

    So you’ll need to get used to net zero.
    Before net zero tears *you* a new arsehole.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    edited August 2021

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
    Not just wifi, or the conference call routed through China, or the fact there are unauthorised people looking over your shoulder, such as your teenage daughter's new boyfriend, or indeed your daughter, or that you might print confidential documents that end up in landfill because you have no shredder. And your home router has not been updated in two years; its admin password is easily guessed; your laptop is unpatched and you've downloaded who knows what. You are more susceptible to phishing because you can't check with the colleague next to you. And there's a heatwave due in a week or two, so you will have all the windows open so your confidential calls can be overheard by any passing stranger. I could probably go on but you get the point. At least you are not half-drunk because we all follow the rules about not drinking (or smoking) at work even when WFH.
  • I have the hundreds on in the background and do not know much about the teams or format, but it does seem to be far more exciting than watching England but maybe the most important aspect is the huge number of young children attending and seemingly jumping up and down as the game ebbs and flows
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,357
    edited August 2021
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Still the Greens, SPD and Left do not have the numbers even combined for a majority.

    Still a Union-Green coalition looks the likeliest outcome, there is a slim chance of an SPD-Green-FDP deal but the FDP have too many differences on economic policy with them for that to be likely. At most the FDP might support a coalition between their traditional allies the Union and the Greens to ensure it has a majority.

    Plus I always said the Union would have done far better with Soder than Laschet as their chancellor candidate but that does not change the fact they are still likely to end up in power again in September in another grand coalition, even with losses

    I certainly agree (and there's plenty of polling evidence) Soder would have been the better candidate electorally for the Union. I saw some polls showing a Soder-led CDU-CSU polling in the mid to high 30s but the fact is for whatever reason the CDU chose Laschet.

    There are seven weeks to go and this is one poll so a huge bucket of salt mixed with caveats required.

    As you say, Lindner has so far ruled out serving in a Green-led Government

    https://kfgo.com/2021/06/20/german-liberal-fdp-rules-out-coalition-with-greens-after-election-bild/

    However, that doesn't necessarily exclude serving in a Government with Green Ministers led by another party. Now, I'm going to propose that while that could be a Government led by the CDU/CSU (how do the latter feel about the Greens?), it could also be a coalition led by the SPD.

    An SPD-led Government, containing both Green and FPD Ministers may not be entirely inconceivable and of course we know what a politician says to gain advantage before the votes are cast and what they do after the votes are cast may not necessarily be identical.

    I doubt the Greens would be that happy to join a government where the FDP refused to allow them to implement most of their policies and where despite coming second the 3rd placed SPD provided the chancellor. They would likely prefer to stay in opposition.

    A Union-SPD-FDP deal would be more likely than that
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/57630566

    This year's Rugby League World Cup, which was due to be held in England in the autumn, will be postponed until 2022 after the withdrawal of defending champions Australia, and New Zealand.

    This is quite a big story with political implications. HMG have spent £25 m on this.And given £32 m in loans to clubs. It can be seen as part of the levelling up agenda, the Tories took plenty of RL towns last time. Workington, Whitehaven (Copeland), Barrow, Warrington S, Leigh, Dewsbury, Keighley, Wakefield, etc and have their eyes on a few more.
    But the sport is bust. Especially below SL level.
    There will be much pressure for a bail out.
    Which might not go down well in the blue wall.
    RL is by far and away the worst administered sport in the UK.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    My main reason for wanting majority in office time, personally speaking, is that I want to separate home life from work. I don't mind putting in the odd late night or early start but I do mind being "having my laptop" at all times. I'll be glad when I can leave at my work desk overnight again and only be contactable on work hours or for emergency situations (which are limited now in my role, I actually can't think of a scenario where I'd be called back from a holiday, for example).

    My wife and I were talking about it over the weekend, her office is right next to my new office and the one thing we'd miss about wfh is the lunches/coffees/walks we have together so being able to do that in Liverpool Street will be nice.
    That's an entirely fair and reasonable point and to be fair I know many people who struggle to compartmentalise the home and working lives as you say.

    Some are able to achieve it physically by creating a home "office" or "work space" and that's one way. Others, and I'm one of them, are just able to mentally disengage from work - one of the reasons, I think, for the notion of people working in a different physical space from where they lived was the journey from the one to the other enabled the mental switch from one life to the other to happen.

    There are those who have always "taken their work home". One of the things for which I have been grateful through all this is Mrs Stodge's work life and mine do not in any way coincide. We cannot talk shop as our working lives are so completely different and divergent.
  • TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
    Not just wifi, or the conference call routed through China, or the fact there are unauthorised people looking over your shoulder, such as your teenage daughter's new boyfriend, or indeed your daughter, or that you might print confidential documents that end up in landfill because you have no shredder. And your home router has not been updated in two years; its admin password is easily guessed; your laptop is unpatched and you've downloaded who knows what. You are more susceptible to phishing because you can't check with the colleague next to you. And there's a heatwave due in a week or two, so you will have all the windows open so your confidential calls can be overheard by any passing stranger. I could probably go on but you get the point. At least you are not half-drunk because we all follow the rules about not drinking (or smoking) at work even when WFH.
    Tell me about it.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    One of the big issues for me regarding WFH and impacts many other is the data security/confidentiality element.

    Discussing market sensitive data over your own wifi was considered a no no not so long ago.
    Every FCA Market Watch has been full of almost nothing else these past few months.
    It's why I've given up share dealing myself.

    Caesar's wife must be above suspicion.
  • MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    I have the hundreds on in the background and do not know much about the teams or format, but it does seem to be far more exciting than watching England but maybe the most important aspect is the huge number of young children attending and seemingly jumping up and down as the game ebbs and flows

    I don’t think tomorrow’s test will be exciting. Four medium pacers bowling on a flat pitch against Pujara, Kohli, Rahane and Pant is not going to be pretty.

    Our one chance is four days of rain.

    I was pleased when Smith was fired. Clearly I celebrated too soon.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited August 2021
    However.

    Let's not forget that lockdowns are extremely popular. Rightly or wrongly PB was a huge lockdown supporter in the early days with one or two exceptions. Others haven't been soon quick to see them light.

    What price the govt seeking to boost its popularity in the winter decides on one.

    Keep the people scared and they are easy to govern. Said Confucius. And Dom.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
  • theProle said:

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.

    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bite claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say, the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
    As I mentioned earlier today my energy deal runs out this month and even the best 2 year fix I could find saw my daily unit rate for electricity and gas rise by 50%

    And this is just the start, as from October further rises are on the way

    I really do not think the politicians have even started to understand just how the unimaginable costs involved in their green agenda are going to be paid by the majority of taxpayers
  • OT shopping sitrep. Sainsbury's about a mile away. Many gaps on the shelves. Mini-apples have changed from Gala to Braeburn (South African). Masks down to maybe 95 per cent from 100 per cent among customers though I got the impression it has gone up amongst staff.

    No flaked parmesan. Solid parmesan, grated parmesan and shaved parmesan but no flaked parmesan. And for some reason it is disguised as Parmigiano Reggiano D.O.P. but they mean parmesan.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    theProle said:

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.

    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bite claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say, the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
    As I mentioned earlier today my energy deal runs out this month and even the best 2 year fix I could find saw my daily unit rate for electricity and gas rise by 50%

    And this is just the start, as from October further rises are on the way

    I really do not think the politicians have even started to understand just how the unimaginable costs involved in their green agenda are going to be paid by the majority of taxpayers
    Don't think your rise is green related. There's a worldwide wholesale price issue for this winter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    I hate people.

    Yes, people are annoying and exhausting. With practice it is fairly easy for an introvert to fake extraversion, indeed, I do it for a living. After all extroverts are fairly superficial people and so easy to fool. The key is to build in plenty of time to decompress in solitary activities afterwards, such as walking, gardening, reading or even arguing on PB. It is in those quiet moments that inspiration comes.

    Generally the world is set up to benefit superficial showmen, and this has been a period that has rebalanced things considerably in favour of more thoughtful folk who are happy in their own company. Of course the extroverts resent this, they want their entourages and flunkies back.
    Bit harsh to call all extroverts superficial… even if I did give you a like.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    4h
    JCVI appear to be treating the choice as vaccine vs no vaccine, when the real choice is vaccination vs infection (given infection rates). So if they really want to evaluate risk-benefit they also need to consider the risks of infection, that are far greater than vaccination.



    Seems a good point to me.

    Probably the most sensible she’s ever posted.
  • Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
    Stadiums is also entirely correct:

    noun, plural sta·di·ums, sta·di·a

    https://www.dictionary.com/browse/stadium
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    I think there is a huge difference between the communal watching of England in the euros (TV in homes and pubs, Up to 30 million people) and league footy. 10 premiership games is around 400,000 people mostly outside, plus may 300,000 for the championship plus leagues 1 and 2. There may be some effect, but it won’t be huge, and against a backdrop of no restrictions anywhere (in England).
  • theProle said:

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.

    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bite claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say, the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
    As I mentioned earlier today my energy deal runs out this month and even the best 2 year fix I could find saw my daily unit rate for electricity and gas rise by 50%

    And this is just the start, as from October further rises are on the way

    I really do not think the politicians have even started to understand just how the unimaginable costs involved in their green agenda are going to be paid by the majority of taxpayers
    Don't think your rise is green related. There's a worldwide wholesale price issue for this winter.
    I expect you are correct so when it is, just how much are energy prices going to be

    I am fortunate as I can afford the increases, but very many will struggle to heat their homes
  • The Guy Who Spent $30 Million Building Trump’s Wall Is Looking for Buyers

    When Tommy Fisher heard the call for a big, beautiful wall, he erected a 3-mile fence along the Rio Grande. Now all he needs is someone to buy it back.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-22/trump-border-wall-builder-tommy-fisher-is-looking-for-a-buyer
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited August 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    I hate people.

    Yes, people are annoying and exhausting. With practice it is fairly easy for an introvert to fake extraversion, indeed, I do it for a living. After all extroverts are fairly superficial people and so easy to fool. The key is to build in plenty of time to decompress in solitary activities afterwards, such as walking, gardening, reading or even arguing on PB. It is in those quiet moments that inspiration comes.

    Generally the world is set up to benefit superficial showmen, and this has been a period that has rebalanced things considerably in favour of more thoughtful folk who are happy in their own company. Of course the extroverts resent this, they want their entourages and flunkies back.
    Bit harsh to call all extroverts superficial… even if I did give you a like.
    It's a comfort thing for introverts. Helps them with the FOMO worry. And the envy.
  • MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    And they reopen in Scotland in 12 days time
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Delta about to be another arrow shape??



    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol· 1h

    There's little good news for the US Delta wave, but we may be seeing the peak case growth rate for the top 2 states, Louisiana and Florida
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422989657369808901
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,327
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/57630566

    This year's Rugby League World Cup, which was due to be held in England in the autumn, will be postponed until 2022 after the withdrawal of defending champions Australia, and New Zealand.

    This is quite a big story with political implications. HMG have spent £25 m on this.And given £32 m in loans to clubs. It can be seen as part of the levelling up agenda, the Tories took plenty of RL towns last time. Workington, Whitehaven (Copeland), Barrow, Warrington S, Leigh, Dewsbury, Keighley, Wakefield, etc and have their eyes on a few more.
    But the sport is bust. Especially below SL level.
    There will be much pressure for a bail out.
    Which might not go down well in the blue wall.
    RL is by far and away the worst administered sport in the UK.
    I thought it was only those buggers over the channel who used COVID as a stick to beat us. And to think we gave our antipodean cousins a trade deal for meat exports. Can't the Truss unilaterally rescind it?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,576
    DougSeal said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    4h
    JCVI appear to be treating the choice as vaccine vs no vaccine, when the real choice is vaccination vs infection (given infection rates). So if they really want to evaluate risk-benefit they also need to consider the risks of infection, that are far greater than vaccination.



    Seems a good point to me.

    Probably the most sensible she’s ever posted.
    I think they have explicitly looked at the risks of infection vs vaccination. That’s been the whole issue, they have felt that for this cohort the risk of the vaccine, as tiny as it is, is still worse than the risk of harm from infection. Most calling for them to be vaccinated are concerned about getting the highest number of the population vaccinated, with some concern about long Covid etc.
  • I'm generally against tropical fruit anywhere near pizza, but this does sound tempting..

    @ShowerAbsolute
    The local "good" pizza place is doing this special and, well I'm tempted...


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for WFH people have proved that they can be more productive but I don't think too many firms will move to a totally WFH environment. For all kinds of corporate and related reasons.

    Then again it really doesn't work for some as we have seen on here from some of the comments.

    My main reason for wanting majority in office time, personally speaking, is that I want to separate home life from work. I don't mind putting in the odd late night or early start but I do mind being "having my laptop" at all times. I'll be glad when I can leave at my work desk overnight again and only be contactable on work hours or for emergency situations (which are limited now in my role, I actually can't think of a scenario where I'd be called back from a holiday, for example).

    My wife and I were talking about it over the weekend, her office is right next to my new office and the one thing we'd miss about wfh is the lunches/coffees/walks we have together so being able to do that in Liverpool Street will be nice.
    That's an entirely fair and reasonable point and to be fair I know many people who struggle to compartmentalise the home and working lives as you say.

    Some are able to achieve it physically by creating a home "office" or "work space" and that's one way. Others, and I'm one of them, are just able to mentally disengage from work - one of the reasons, I think, for the notion of people working in a different physical space from where they lived was the journey from the one to the other enabled the mental switch from one life to the other to happen.

    There are those who have always "taken their work home". One of the things for which I have been grateful through all this is Mrs Stodge's work life and mine do not in any way coincide. We cannot talk shop as our working lives are so completely different and divergent.
    It's actually the highest value part of going back to the office for me. I think for my wife too, she's also in an industry that's never really asleep (well we're both in different parts of banking). Being able to just leave the office and switch off is a massive benefit for us and our reopening plan starting up at 3 days per week for anyone who wants it has been a revelation. Mostly it's been the same core group of people who have been coming in since mid-April for the odd day but in the last two weeks we've had quite a few more come on Tuesdays and Fridays.

    It's good that you are unable to talk shop, happily I'm in the same situation, not because we wouldn't be able to but we actually can't because both of us could easily get the other one into serious trouble so we have a very hard rule on shop talk at home - don't do it.

    One of the reasons I don't mind the commute is because it is a bit of a wind down from work to home life. I usually listen to some music or read a book. Plus it only being about 20 minutes on the tube also helps a lot.
  • dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/57630566

    This year's Rugby League World Cup, which was due to be held in England in the autumn, will be postponed until 2022 after the withdrawal of defending champions Australia, and New Zealand.

    This is quite a big story with political implications. HMG have spent £25 m on this.And given £32 m in loans to clubs. It can be seen as part of the levelling up agenda, the Tories took plenty of RL towns last time. Workington, Whitehaven (Copeland), Barrow, Warrington S, Leigh, Dewsbury, Keighley, Wakefield, etc and have their eyes on a few more.
    But the sport is bust. Especially below SL level.
    There will be much pressure for a bail out.
    Which might not go down well in the blue wall.
    RL is by far and away the worst administered sport in the UK.
    Horseracing says hello. And by coincidence has just announced plans to discourage practices around bloodstock sales that are probably illegal anyway.

    Not quite RL but a few years back I was speaking to a director of a well-known services company who exclaimed: it's impossible to do business with horseracing; they're like rugby union used to be!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,057
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
    Grounds
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,769
    Claudia Webb loses Twitter argument.....with herself:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1423008178959171585?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    theProle said:

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.

    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bite claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say, the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
    Nonsense. Climate change can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with. It doesn't feel pity of remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are dead. It certainly isn't going to hesitate or go into retreat on democratic grounds. You have the same problem as contrarian, who is incapable of seeing that ineluctable exigencies are imposed on us by the virus itself whether we like it or not and irrespective of how we vote.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,994
    @Gallowgate good on ya
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
    Stadiums is also entirely correct:

    noun, plural sta·di·ums, sta·di·a

    https://www.dictionary.com/browse/stadium
    Not in the bright new world of Latin lessons mandated by the Spider God, it isn't!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298

    Delta about to be another arrow shape??



    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol· 1h

    There's little good news for the US Delta wave, but we may be seeing the peak case growth rate for the top 2 states, Louisiana and Florida
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422989657369808901

    Delta is a triangle. As any fool knows.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,232

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    And they reopen in Scotland in 12 days time
    It'll be fascinating to see whether or not there's a substantial, reasonably clearly identifiable difference in caseload between Scotland and England that can be pinned on the schools.

    The Scottish Government is determined to keep making secondary school kids wear gags, which have, of course, been ditched in England.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
    Stadiums is also entirely correct:

    noun, plural sta·di·ums, sta·di·a

    https://www.dictionary.com/browse/stadium
    Not in the bright new world of Latin lessons mandated by the Spider God, it isn't!
    We speak English in this country, NOT a dead language like Latin!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    4h
    JCVI appear to be treating the choice as vaccine vs no vaccine, when the real choice is vaccination vs infection (given infection rates). So if they really want to evaluate risk-benefit they also need to consider the risks of infection, that are far greater than vaccination.



    Seems a good point to me.

    Is it? The JCVI analysis compares the risk of getting a vaccination to the risk of getting covid. That's not vaccine vs. no vaccine.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Well now.

    The chairman of the Conservative Party is using his business partner in a secretive company to help manage party donors and arrange access to Boris Johnson.

    Ben Elliot is already under intense scrutiny over the overlap between his party and business roles as co-founder of Quintessentially, a luxury concierge business. Today it can be revealed that he is using his co-director in another company to conduct political activities.

    Jakob Widecki, his partner at Hod Hill, also holds a previously undisclosed role in Elliot’s team at Conservative headquarters. The Times has also learnt that Elliot uses his Quintessentially email address, rather than a Conservative account, for party business.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-chairmans-business-partner-arranges-access-to-pm-for-donors-9j6fpxhn3

    Move along, nothing to see.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 706

    theProle said:

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    I think what he's saying is that Brexit happened as a powerful movement, against the wishes of the majority of politicians because the establishment had spent the last 30 years doing stuff people didn't like and blaming the EU, whilst a cosy concensus of the "mainstream" ensured we never got a vote on it (because if we did they knew they would lose).

    The green idocy is going the same way. People want their gas central heating and their economical diesel cars (even the No10 spokeswoman it seems). They'd quite like cheap electricity. But without their consent (there has never been an election with a credible party against this) the government has promised to take all this stuff away from them.
    If the government persists with this without real democratic consent, as the various deadlines start to bite and actually effect people's lives it's going to become very unpopular.
    If they carry on as they are, setting future targets which are going to be very painful for large chunks of the population, then when they bute claiming they are unchangeable and immutable like some sort of divine decree, net zero is going to become the new Brexit. We'll moan about it for a bit, a pressure group will force the government's hand, and as soon as the people get a real democratic say the silent majority of the population will decide that enough is enough, and will tear the elite a new arsehole - just like happened with Brexit.
    Except global warming and climate change is happening NOW, and perhaps worse than scientists predicted.

    So you’ll need to get used to net zero.
    Before net zero tears *you* a new arsehole.
    I didn't say it wasn't, although I do occasionally wonder if some of the climate modelers have been moonlighting doing the University of Warwick's Covid projections - I'm not sure it's changing as fast as a lot of climate scientists claim.

    The reality is that there is sweet FA we can do about it. We've already done what we can sensibly do to curb emissions, going further and ending up shivering in the cold because we've banned affordable central heating whilst the Chinese are still building coal fire power stations by the dozen is pointless.

    We'd do better to admit that climate change is going to happen, and use 10% of the money we were going to spend on net zero for mitigation works, and let the public keep the other 90%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    17% of people want full "stay home, everything's shut" lockdown back. Wtf is wrong with these people.

    At least 17% of the country are introverts.
    I'm an introvert, and I wouldn't answer that option to apply for everyone through such a poll.

    I'm an introvert, not a dick.
    We'll be the judge of that.
    I shall be on best behaviour.

    Sir.
  • Foxy said:

    Monkeys said:

    I hate people.

    Yes, people are annoying and exhausting. With practice it is fairly easy for an introvert to fake extraversion, indeed, I do it for a living. After all extroverts are fairly superficial people and so easy to fool. The key is to build in plenty of time to decompress in solitary activities afterwards, such as walking, gardening, reading or even arguing on PB. It is in those quiet moments that inspiration comes.

    Generally the world is set up to benefit superficial showmen, and this has been a period that has rebalanced things considerably in favour of more thoughtful folk who are happy in their own company. Of course the extroverts resent this, they want their entourages and flunkies back.
    I do wonder if something like that is why ministers are so desperate for people to return to the office. Not a sleazy being in the pay of Big Sandwich Shop- just that they got to the top by being visible and pressing the flesh, and they simply can't conceive of others succeeding in different ways, or choosing a different path entirely. Sincere, just unimaginative.

    Because for office jobs... even if you accept that there are gains from having the whole team in the same building all the time, they'd have to be damn big gains to counteract the cost of the building, the cost of the travel and the value of the time spend at the mercies of whatever Network Southeast is calling itself these days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited August 2021
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:


    I don't doubt it. It's an unsurprisingly selfish attitude from the middle classes who have those marginal benefits to want to inflict social misery on the rest of the country so they can keep them.

    Loads of them will definitely fear the idea of decisions being made in the room a year from now while they sit in splendid isolation at home. I think that's partly why they want to keep everyone home, if no one can go into the office then they know there's no way they can be dragged in. If the office is open eventually people will gravitate towards it and they'll have an absolutely mega case of FOMO as well as being cut out of lunch and pub based decisions.

    This old chestnut you keep dragging out to justify your weak argument people should be back in offices.

    Most modern organisations don't function in the way you describe. The notion a small group want to keep everyone WFH so they alone can take the decisions is so absurd I'm surprised it's even taken seriously.

    My organisation (and those with which I deal) are universally either abandoning commercial office space entirely or looking for something that isn't banks of desks all packed together like battery hens - those days are over mercifully.

    The "office" will be a place for collaborative meetings and team working visited at most two days per week - that's what I'm hearing across both the private and public sectors. We are already seeing Councils such as West Berkshire and Cornwall putting up papers looking at reductions of up to 50% in office accommodation - why, because old-fashioned administrative offices are history.

    No one liked them, no one wants them and we've now discovered no one needs them.

    I've heard the equally banal comment on here people prefer air conditioned offices to working at home when it's hot. Perhaps but working at home will be attractive on dark, cold, wet November mornings and especially in the depths of winter.
    The last gasp of the antisocial remote worker coming to the realisation that decisions are going to be made in the room.

    Also, I've never said people should do anything. I've said that people will inevitably go back.
    The vast majority of office workers weren't in the room when decisions were made in the first place.
    They were outside waiting to be told what to do.
    For many it is easier to take orders at home.
    I don't like it, but you're totally right about the way things generally work. Most seem content with that, though I think the seniors love it most of all. No need to gather people to receive a dictat.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    ...

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
    Grounds
    There is a podcast I love called "Football Cliches", and their 13th May episode (No69) covers the use of "Stadium/Stadia/Ground" quite comprehensively
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    Wait, Steve Baker just called Brexit a political fiasco.

    Politicians need to level with the public about the scale of change needed in our lives so we don’t have another political fiasco like Brexit


    Brexit was a political fiasco from 2017-19.

    Quite. Political fiasco does not equal the thing itself being a fiasco. For him at any rate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    The death rate has risen 14.5% in the last 7 days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    I'm concerned. I think we're heading for trouble.

    Hospital admissions are down and the death rate will follow.
    I think this is arrogant.

    Today's figure shows a rise in cases. ZOE suggest that the Gov't stats have been underplaying the true figure.

    I suspect we're heading for problems. If I'm wrong then I'll be delighted but I will just note that everytime people arrogantly think this virus is beaten, it has a habit of biting them in the ass. A little more circumspection, grace and humility from you Mr Seal wouldn't go amiss.
    ZOE panicked two weeks ago when the drop in cases started and fudged their data, on the pretext of who their cohort was. Now it’s again showing a decent fall. Cases on Wednesdays are always up, as weekend effects roll through. I am not expecting the cases to fall away rapidly. More likely we will be stuck with substantial cases for a while. But crucially there are no legal restrictions in England and vaccines are making that happen.
    I think that's what's really key here, we're well past the point where the step 4 unlockdown should be visible in cases. That we haven't seen an explosion, just a slowdown in the contraction rate, is actually a huge win. I was on record here saying that 100k per day in mid-late August was plausible based on what we've previously seen in an unrestricted environment. Vaccines are holding the R down to about 1 and we're still adding people into the two dose cohort and all of the infections are pushing people into the acquired immunity cohort.
    The difficulty is that three things happened at pretty much the same time. Stage 4 (you'd expect a faster spread), the end of the Euros (undoing what looks like a biggish temporary peak) and schools closing (which has always slowed the spread down thus far, whatever the mechanism).

    That makes it hard to unpick what's going on. The next tricky bit is what happens when schools reopen; we either have sufficient slack to cope with that, or we don't...
    Football stadiums will be reopening at much the same time, which will complicate things further.
    Errr ... surely stadia.
    Stadiums is also entirely correct:

    noun, plural sta·di·ums, sta·di·a

    https://www.dictionary.com/browse/stadium
    Not in the bright new world of Latin lessons mandated by the Spider God, it isn't!
    We speak English in this country, NOT a dead language like Latin!
    It's an interesting question, though: Latin has been formally incepted into English a great deal, and so has Greek.
    Quite a few plurals in formal English and also technical English derive directly from them. For instance, one writes of stomata in plant leaves (but not the sort of stoma with a colostomy bag - they are stomas plural).

    I tend to use the more conservative grammar, plural, etc., to play safe - for me, 'data' is always a plural word, for instance.
This discussion has been closed.