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Johnson drops sharply in the August CONHome satisfaction ratings – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 2 in General
imageJohnson drops sharply in the August CONHome satisfaction ratings – politicalbetting.com

Every month we have the Conservative Home satisfaction ratings of cabinet ministers and the big feature of the latest one is the position of the PM. He’s down since last month a massive 36% and has a net satisfaction rating of just 3.4.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    Test
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    1st?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575
    Test
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    eek said:

    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....

    I think Boris will want to outlast Theresa May as PM.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,096
    It is growing awareness of his many and manifest shortcomings. I think he may have enough sense to engineer a withdrawal whilst "still ahead" in his own reckoning. Autumn this year or Spring next year?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....

    I think Boris will want to outlast Theresa May as PM.
    I would love to see the amusement it would cause her if he doesn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    Really slow to the new thread, like the BBC's Olympics coverage......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    With child number 8 or 10 or whatever it is, two toddlers, no money and shit to hit the fan politically with all sorts of tough decisions...if I was Boris, be very tempting to exit stage left to "write" some books and give £100k a pop speeches.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....

    I think Boris will want to outlast Theresa May as PM.
    I would love to see the amusement it would cause her if he doesn't.
    This is why he will want to outlast her, even if it's only by one day.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    eek said:

    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....

    I agree - there is precious little of 2021 left. Notwithstanding that the 3-6th October will allow for a bit of in-person plotting that could precipitate "events", I just don't see it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    Con Home? I thought we didn't pay attention to what they think?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....

    I think Boris will want to outlast Theresa May as PM.
    I would love to see the amusement it would cause her if he doesn't.
    This is why he will want to outlast her, even if it's only by one day.
    After Theresa May, the next symbolic target is Ted Heath.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    With child number 8 or 10 or whatever it is, two toddlers, no money and shit to hit the fan politically with all sorts of tough decisions...if I was Boris, be very tempting to exit stage left to "write" some books and give £100k a pop speeches.

    Even if Boris wants to do that - he is rapidly running out of runway to do that and for everything to be settled before 1/1/2022...

    Which is the other reason why I said 2022 (and probably late 2022) to allow whoever will be the next leader sometime before an October / November 2023 election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    Another useful data viz. We're entering into a phase of the pandemic when the differences in regional COVID rates are going to be persistent and national numbers/solutions won't be representative
    https://t.co/E8FowQS7N0 https://t.co/JGJrTxiieZ
  • Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,232
    If it's pinggate that harmed BoJo's reputation, how has Rishi emerged from exactly the same smelling, if not of roses, at least of rose-scented air freshener?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Nigelb said:

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    It's not real till it has a shit logo.




    Jackspace...
    Is this spaceforce a Trumpian joke?
    Interestingly the comedy SpaceForce seemed to have a bit of an identity problem, in that it seemed very likely it was greenlit on the basis of it being hilarious Trump set up such a thing, and the offscreen president referred to was clearly meant to be Trump, but from time to time the episodes treated the idea through the main character with a bit more seriousness or optimism (a scene with the lead countering an AOC stand in over the budget springs to mind), as if the they couldn't decide whether, joke or not, they should give the idea more dignity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    Switch the kids to state schools.
  • tlg86 said:

    Con Home? I thought we didn't pay attention to what they think?

    We don't, but they help set a narrative for the wider media, which has implications for the betting markets.

    Think of Conhome as the AFTV on the political blogs, no matter how hard you try and avoid it....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    It reminds me of the line from Phoenix nights....you want to be careful Patrick, you only get a bucket and a half...really... that's all i got...

    Clearly not in Boris case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Can't see Boris going this year - 2022 however....

    I think Boris will want to outlast Theresa May as PM.
    I would love to see the amusement it would cause her if he doesn't.
    This is why he will want to outlast her, even if it's only by one day.
    I just cant see him not fighting the next election. Any leader can fight one, even Corbyn fought two and he wasn't even PM.
  • kle4 said:

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    Switch the kids to state schools.
    I don't think the wife will allow that.

    If she looks down on John Lewis I'm not sure she'll be happy sending the crotchfruit to the local bog standard comprehensive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    tlg86 said:

    Con Home? I thought we didn't pay attention to what they think?

    In general we don't. But they can be a useful-ish guide to what (some of) the Tory grass roots are thinking - and if its believed by Tory MPs that can have real-world consequences.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    tlg86 said:

    Con Home? I thought we didn't pay attention to what they think?

    We don't, but they help set a narrative for the wider media, which has implications for the betting markets.

    Think of Conhome as the AFTV on the political blogs, no matter how hard you try and avoid it....
    Do they? Proper opinion polls? Yes. Conhome polls? I can't recall them getting too much press time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    The Tories lead every poll? What other PM can usually say the same midterm.

    Even in the ConHome poll the PM still has a net positive rating even it has dipped at bit so he has secure for now.

    More significant perhaps are the next Tory leader figures in the same survey where Sunak leads comfortably, cementing him as heir apparent

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/08/sunak-leads-our-first-next-tory-leader-survey-in-two-years.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    I've long thought that ratings for parties and people can seem divorced from reality for a long time before things crash, but it is such a stark drop I'm assuming he'll rebound among the target audience.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,594
    kle4 said:

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    Switch the kids to state schools.
    I know hes a rum cove but he wouldn't sink that low
  • Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    Squaresum2 is going to be over the moon with that article! Even I can't defend that as not being anti Tory. You might be in for some flak Mike. Still can't complain about the source.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    Once again we see the evidence as to why he hangs onto toxic Gavin.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,594

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
    I'm just here for the comments - I already know what all the thread writers think and it's hardly surprising there's a high level of repetition given the number needed. Equally not unreasonable to be a little amused at the 'balance'.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you related to SquareSum2?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    maaarsh said:

    kle4 said:

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    Switch the kids to state schools.
    I know hes a rum cove but he wouldn't sink that low
    A rum cove? Is he a blackguard, bounder and cad too?
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Con Home? I thought we didn't pay attention to what they think?

    We don't, but they help set a narrative for the wider media, which has implications for the betting markets.

    Think of Conhome as the AFTV on the political blogs, no matter how hard you try and avoid it....
    Do they? Proper opinion polls? Yes. Conhome polls? I can't recall them getting too much press time.
    Here's the write up in The Times of this poll. They regularly cover ConHome polls, as do others.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/conservatives-back-rishi-sunak-as-boris-johnsons-popularity-slides-2jlzxtcvl
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    edited August 2
    Mr. Eagles, I think that's an astute observation.

    I forget his name, unless it was Lucullus, but there was a prominent latter day* Roman leader who might have became the man of the hour but was met with widespread contempt when he abandoned the politico-military career path to indulge his private passions (nothing dubious, just artistic stuff).

    Personal preferences and needs can often trump the public good or even career advantage, as we saw with Quintus Servilius Caepio at the Battle of Arausio.

    Edited extra bit: *latter day in the Republican sense.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:

    kle4 said:

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    Switch the kids to state schools.
    I know hes a rum cove but he wouldn't sink that low
    A rum cove? Is he a blackguard, bounder and cad too?
    Poor show, however you look at it, what?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,142

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
    Not moaning, just amused, I will submit a thread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    A big drop in a Tory leader's rating on Con Home is newsworthy if say, even if only a blip. It is widely read.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 2
    For people who like betting on things that tie your money up for 9 months..

    The StatsBomb Premier League Season Previews are here!

    First up, Manchester City. @olivermpw_ looks at how the reigning champions are shaping up ahead of Pep Guardiola's sixth season at the helm:

    https://t.co/XEBxcZEpZ8
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    If it's pinggate that harmed BoJo's reputation, how has Rishi emerged from exactly the same smelling, if not of roses, at least of rose-scented air freshener?

    Because Rishi got his backtracking in first...

    Equally Boris has form in the one rule for me another for everyone else which Rishi has not (yet) got.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    Damn it I want to be annoyed by that post, but HYUFD is not wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    I think theres probably more to being a socialist than just that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
    Are there refunds available? How does one apply?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    I think theres probably more to being a socialist than just that.
    You want to raise the tax to spend more and believe most of the economy should be state run yes
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    felix said:

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
    Are there refunds available? How does one apply?
    I think they are willing to refund your entire subscription.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 2
    Spain in the hockey making England footballers look good at penalties....4 attempts, 4 misses.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    Got to say there's a vast yawning chasm regarding Penguin and Oxford and the fifth book of Polybius. The former has 11 pages devoted to it, the latter 80.

    I'm oddly looking forward to blogging about a comparison of the two versions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    Damn it I want to be annoyed by that post, but HYUFD is not wrong.
    Neither are his liberals ;)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,261
    Apologies if this is common knowledge, but I heard another bit of info regarding the shambles at the Euro 2020 final.

    As kick off time approached, fans with tickets were denied entry to the stadium by stewards because "we don't know how many are already inside".

  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714
    kjh said:

    felix said:

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
    Are there refunds available? How does one apply?
    I think they are willing to refund your entire subscription.
    Do I get a bonuis for being a miserable old git?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    eek said:

    If it's pinggate that harmed BoJo's reputation, how has Rishi emerged from exactly the same smelling, if not of roses, at least of rose-scented air freshener?

    Because Rishi got his backtracking in first...

    Equally Boris has form in the one rule for me another for everyone else which Rishi has not (yet) got.
    Hes also been otherwise quiet for awhile, fewer may even have noticed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    maaarsh said:

    kle4 said:

    Two divorces, I think that is what his at least seventh kid? Three of whom are under the age 12, so that's a lot of school fees to fund.

    His current wife has expensive tastes.

    Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised, I'm not sure he can afford to be Prime Minister for much longer.

    Switch the kids to state schools.
    I know hes a rum cove but he wouldn't sink that low
    A rum cove? Is he a blackguard, bounder and cad too?
    Poor show, however you look at it, what?
    I just enjoyed the turn of phrase.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    The EU doesn't particularly care about what EU citizens think of it - that's a National Government problem - so they certainly won't care what Brits think of it. I suspect Mr Worth is missing the larger point.....

    https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1422191899256004609?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 2
    Reports of the imminent death of GB News maybe misplayed....

    https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/chaos-live-can-gb-news-channel-survive-tv-b948773.html

    I still can't see how its viable, but the article suggests it might at least be able to break even.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    We assumed this ‘a harder border will create jobs’ idiocy was a gaffe. It seems it’s about to become SNP policy.

    https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1422194063613247492?s=20
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    What's Amanda Milling done to incur the ConHome wrath? I'd not even heard of her!
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714

    felix said:

    kjh said:

    felix said:

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you moaning once again?

    Perhaps you can submit a thread?

    Or perhaps you would like a refund?
    Are there refunds available? How does one apply?
    I think they are willing to refund your entire subscription.
    Do I get a bonuis for being a miserable old git?
    Sorry, no - there is a quota of miserable old gits and we've exceeded the number of payouts...
    I guess that's the least surprising comment of the millenium!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Sunak's got some decisions to make soon.
    And this time they won't be how much free cash will I give the voters?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575
    edited August 2

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    This is a politics website and l'etat, regrettably, c'est Boris, now and for the foreseeable. You wouldn't like it if all the threads were sks in trouble threads, because they would be sks pm in trouble threads.

    "There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about" - Dick Emery.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750
    edited August 2
    dixiedean said:

    Sunak's got some decisions to make soon.
    And this time they won't be how much free cash will I give the voters?

    Unless he follows the US approach and just continue to borrow, I mean "invest".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    IshmaelZ said:

    Test

    Trace?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,750

    IshmaelZ said:

    Test

    Trace?
    Isolate....
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    edited August 2

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    Are you suggesting that we ignore a story relating to a live betting market. If that upsets you then I'm sure there are other sites you can go to. Try ConHome - sorry they are doing this big as well.

  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,068
    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Popularity within the Tory party/membership/leaning voters is not the same as popularity within the country
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    IshmaelZ said:

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    This is a politics website and l'etat, regrettably, c'est Boris, now and for the foreseeable. You wouldn't like it if all the threads were sks in trouble threads, because they would be sks pm in trouble threads.

    "There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about" - Dick Emery.
    I think you will find it was Oscar Wilde.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,858
    Selebian said:

    What's Amanda Milling done to incur the ConHome wrath? I'd not even heard of her!

    She's party co-chair, so much more visible to the membership than to the general public (even those who are politically switched on).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    Damn it I want to be annoyed by that post, but HYUFD is not wrong.
    IHT doesn't worry me; if I haven't provided my children and grandchildren with enough nous to feather their own nests, I've not done a particularly good job as a parent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403

    dixiedean said:

    Sunak's got some decisions to make soon.
    And this time they won't be how much free cash will I give the voters?

    Unless he follows the US approach and just continue to borrow, I mean "invest".
    He doesn't have the luxury of the US dollar to help with that.
    Nor indeed backbenchers who will silently acquiesce. Most of them are ideological Thatcherites. And most have spent 10 years exhorting austerity.
    Surely they must have believed it?
    Even just a little of part of some of it?
    Surely.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    This is a politics website and l'etat, regrettably, c'est Boris, now and for the foreseeable. You wouldn't like it if all the threads were sks in trouble threads, because they would be sks pm in trouble threads.

    "There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about" - Dick Emery.
    I think you will find it was Oscar Wilde.
    Fish in a barrel...
    Oh, I seee, an attempt at humour? More lessons needed methinks, old bean.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    spudgfsh said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Popularity within the Tory party/membership/leaning voters is not the same as popularity within the country
    Indirectly, I think it is the same, unfortunately. As @HYUFD, @NerysHughes , @maaarsh have already pointed out on this so far short comment thread, the Tories are still ahead in the polls, despite everything.

    Where everything is a hell of a lot.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,635
    .
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    Meanwhile back in the real world, the policy you espouse doesn't work in the way you believe it does.

    In England care costs are taken out of the estate until the estate drops to £27,000 (it is around £50K in Wales) when the state takes over. So sitting on the family property worth say £325,000 means either it needs to be sold to fund care home rental plus care costs, or the costs are supplemented by a loved one over and above annual earnings on the rental of said property, until it is sold.

    So in order to fund my in-law, who couldn't tell you how many children she has, let alone hazard a guess at who the PM may be and how many children he has (yet the LA consider her compos mentis enough not to qualify for any nursing cost assistance) she has to pay funding in full from her pension, and income taxed at 40% for her property to be rented out, any shortfall is covered by me.

    Had she partied on down for the last 40 years with nothing to show for it she would have got to keep her pension to spend (in her case on fags) and the LA would be coughing for the £1000 a week care home costs. Of around 50 residents she is the only fee payer.

    So in summary, by the time any inheritance is due there will be nothing left to inherit. Now I am not criticising that, just saying I don't think your eye catching headline bears scrutiny.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    Because it was an attack on working people's future inheritances. Who's suggesting a rise in IHT or house snatching anyway?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    IshmaelZ said:

    Whats this, a Boris is in trouble thread

    This is a politics website and l'etat, regrettably, c'est Boris, now and for the foreseeable. You wouldn't like it if all the threads were sks in trouble threads, because they would be sks pm in trouble threads.

    "There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about" - Dick Emery.
    I think you will find it was Oscar Wilde.
    Why not Dick Emery? There is only one thing worse than being misquoted, and that is not being quoted.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    "We aren't Chinese and aren't from Taipei." Says indigenous Olympian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/02/taiwans-olympics-victory-over-china-renews-calls-to-scrap-chinese-taipei

    You can see the point. It is analogous to GB competing as "English London."
    Andy Murray, for one wouldn't be gruntled.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,774
    Boris is the best at this one thing - inhabiting and navigating the chaotic world created by his own endless jinking.

    I wavered for a time at the turn of the year, but I think he is very happy as PM and would be prepared to cling on by any means necessary, whether that is by finding excuses to remove the whip from malcontents to game the internal numbers wanting to remove him or by u-turning and losing parts of the UK to increase his nominal majority.

    Not that either of those things look necessary at the moment, but be sure should the need arise and should the timings fit a purpose, that is where Boris would end up. Would such would actions be ultimately self-defeating and ruinous? Perhaps, but as long ultimately is not tomorrow, living to fight another day would win out.

    My tendency is therefore to think the most value is on Boris being around for a while.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
    Hate to ask, but if FF43's (alleged) bitterness really is one of the best rewards of Brexit, was it really worth all the hassle? What are the other top five say, for context? :wink:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,742
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
    Hate to ask, but if FF43's (alleged) bitterness really is one of the best rewards of Brexit, was it really worth all the hassle? What are the other top five say, for context? :wink:
    It's probably spaces 1-3, personally along with the bitterness from other EU supporting fifth columnists.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 297
    Is there a betting market that the next General Election will be AFTER 2024?

    It's now pushing on towards autumn 2021. Supposing covid-19 spawns a succession of virulent variants over the next two or three years? We know already that this Government whilst professing to love freedom in fact likes the opposite: this is a tactic of all oligarchies. Putin is the master at it. Tell people the opposite of the truth and some will fall for it.

    We get to late 2023 and the tories declare that it's too risky to hold an election during the pandemic. The General Election is postponed 'until the time is right.'
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,635
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
    Hate to ask, but if FF43's (alleged) bitterness really is one of the best rewards of Brexit, was it really worth all the hassle? What are the other top five say, for context? :wink:
    It's probably spaces 1-3, personally along with the bitterness from other EU supporting fifth columnists.
    Spite is no way to run a country. Sooner or later the boot will be on the other foot.
    They won! Why are they still so angry?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Boris Johnson says he wants to see a "simple and user friendly" travel traffic light system...

    That user friendly list is now:

    Green
    Green watchlist
    Amber
    Amber watchlist (apparently)
    Amber 'plus'
    Red

    https://twitter.com/thejonnyreilly/status/1422201422578429959
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
    Hate to ask, but if FF43's (alleged) bitterness really is one of the best rewards of Brexit, was it really worth all the hassle? What are the other top five say, for context? :wink:
    It's probably spaces 1-3, personally along with the bitterness from other EU supporting fifth columnists.
    If "remainers" are fifth columnists for the EU are Leavers fifth columnists for Putin? Which would be worse? I think as Brexit is now "done" people trading insults over it just make themselves look a little silly. There are many on both sides of the argument who have done service for their country, and often much more than the people from the opposing side that suggest they are "traitors" perhaps?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,635
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson says he wants to see a "simple and user friendly" travel traffic light system...

    That user friendly list is now:

    Green
    Green watchlist
    Amber
    Amber watchlist (apparently)
    Amber 'plus'
    Red

    https://twitter.com/thejonnyreilly/status/1422201422578429959

    Imagine if that is how traffic signals in the Highway Code operated.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
    Hate to ask, but if FF43's (alleged) bitterness really is one of the best rewards of Brexit, was it really worth all the hassle? What are the other top five say, for context? :wink:
    It's probably spaces 1-3, personally along with the bitterness from other EU supporting fifth columnists.
    Well, I guess if upsetting remainers was a core aim, then it has indeed been a pretty resounding success!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465

    They won! Why are they still so angry?

    Remoaners are insufficiently grateful for the chaos and misery caused.

    When we worship BoZo, all will be well...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited August 2

    .

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the Torygraph as well which we know the party leadership reads. I'm genuinely shocked that this policy is even under consideration. The cost of social care needs to be paid for by the oldies.
    That policy cost the Tories their majority in 2017, it is political suicide, especially as it lost the middle aged vote too who stood to inherit.

    If you are going to raise extra funds for social care NI is the only politically viable way to do so
    No it isn't, the Tories will lose far too many working age voters. The key metric from 2017 vs 2019 was the age of becoming a Tory voter. In 2017 it was 49 and the party lost its majority and n 2019 the age was 37 and you got an 80 seat majority. Push working age voters away again with a rise in NI (a tax only paid by working age people) and that age will rise to over 45 again and the majority goes with it.
    Rubbish, the single most popular Tory policy this millennium was raising the IHT threshold, the most unpopular one the dementia tax. 40 to 60 year olds are the group most likely to benefit from an inheritance which was why the dementia tax was so disastrous, Boris rightly ruled out taking the family home for at home social care in 2019 and got a landslide, May ruled it in and lost her majority.

    The Tory lead was slashed in 2017 after May's dementia tax policy, yet 57% of voters support raising NI to pay for social care and even only 28% of 18 to 24s are opposed
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/conservative-poll-lead-cut-half-dementia-tax-u-turn/
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1417517568257101824?s=20

    Tories have always been about protecting estates and inheritance in the family above all, if you want to tax estates more rather than income then you are a liberal, if you want to tax both a socialist
    Meanwhile back in the real world, the policy you espouse doesn't work in the way you believe it does.

    In England care costs are taken out of the estate until the estate drops to £27,000 (it is around £50K in Wales) when the state takes over. So sitting on the family property worth say £325,000 means either it needs to be sold to fund care home rental plus care costs, or the costs are supplemented by a loved one over and above annual earnings on the rental of said property, until it is sold.

    So in order to fund my in-law, who couldn't tell you how many children she has, let alone hazard a guess at who the PM may be and how many children he has (yet the LA consider her compos mentis enough not to qualify for any nursing cost assistance) she has to pay funding in full from her pension, and income taxed at 40% for her property to be rented out, any shortfall is covered by me.

    Had she partied on down for the last 40 years with nothing to show for it she would have got to keep her pension to spend (in her case on fags) and the LA would be coughing for the £1000 a week care home costs. Of around 50 residents she is the only fee payer.

    So in summary, by the time any inheritance is due there will be nothing left to inherit. Now I am not criticising that, just saying I don't think your eye catching headline bears scrutiny.
    Only in terms of residential care, not at home care.

    It was May proposing to tax the family home to pay for at home care too that cost her her majority
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,226
    edited August 2
    Actually on reading ConHome, which I rarely do, it seems it is a combination of his equivocation over self isolation, his planning proposals which saw such a kick back in C & A with apparently 100+ conservative mps willing to vote it down in the Autumn, and his covid passport policy which incidentally I do support

    Personally, I would be content for him to go today as most of you know I am a great supporter of Rishi, but in truth I do not expect him to go this year but would not rule out 2022, not least as has been mentioned his huge expenses and relatively moderate income, especially for a prime minster.

    While I do have a disagreement with those who have been seriously upset by Brexit, I do hope that the time will come when we can move towards a more friendly relationship, even a trading one, within the EU, but of course I would oppose re-joining and it does seem that is a fairly settled view of the main parties, excluding the SNP

    The polls will be interesting over the coming weeks and months but if opening the economy does succeed and we do get close to herd immunity then that may well be the one thing that may see him extending his period in office, but as others have said that may also depend on his financial needs as he could make a fortune once he stands down

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    The 88% net favourability rating for Liz Truss is as preposterous as the woman herself. A reflection of the Conservative Party and the times we live in, I guess.

    Your bitterness over the UK having an independent trade policy is one of the best rewards of Brexit. Thank you.
    Hate to ask, but if FF43's (alleged) bitterness really is one of the best rewards of Brexit, was it really worth all the hassle? What are the other top five say, for context? :wink:
    It's probably spaces 1-3, personally along with the bitterness from other EU supporting fifth columnists.
    Well, I guess if upsetting remainers was a core aim, then it has indeed been a pretty resounding success!
    I was a remainer. I have moved on. I wish Brexiters would. Imagine if they had lost, the sulking would have been unprecedented.
This discussion has been closed.