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Opinium has the Midlands and the North recording the biggest falls in Boris’s approval ratings – pol

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474

    Rather than looking at the changes, look at Opinium’s absolute Boris Johnson net approval ratings this month:

    London +9
    Midlands -7
    South -9
    North -19
    Wales -21
    N Ireland -23
    Scotland -44

    The “Minister for the Union” is doing a fine job… dividing the UK.

    I would have thought a 7 pt drop.in popularity for The Nits would please Boris enormously especially With the Tories gaining ground.
    Yes, but only IF there really is a 7 point drop in SNP VI and a 5 point rise in SCon VI. The chances of that being statistically reliable are remote.

    But he’ll be less pleased with the Yes parties on 56%
    and the BetterTogether2 parties on 44%.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390

    I see the Tories want to publish the telephone numbers and email addresses of policemen and women.

    Reming me, how do the police usually vote?

    Presumably work Numbers and email. I hope the police don’t use their own email for work purposes...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223

    Roger said:

    A little perspective:


    What is the new perspective? I see a figure which is worse than Trump's before he was hammered at the US election and stands at a rather dismal -13.

    PS. Well done taking over the Sunday morning shift from Philip. It's about time they employed a female

    I don't think Boris is going to.encourage his supporters to storm Parliament and trash it.

    Rogerdamus.. never right, talks shite.
    I knew they wouldn't trust a woman to do it alone.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,236

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The current position on vaccinations is about 4th best in the world.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.
    For who?

    Under 18 year olds?

    Or the rest of us? Especially those not vaccinated.

    That’s what the JCVI is grappling with and I don’t envy them their task. Perhaps you can enlighten them?
    The US has been vaccinating the 12-17 range since early April, without obvious issues.

    The evidence is that it is both efficacious and safe.

    Now we've hit a demand wall from adults, we should open up the vaccine for children.
    Worth noting that the MRHA has approved the vaccine for teenagers in the UK on safety and efficacy grounds. It is the JVCI that has not done so, but they can look at wider issues.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,278

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    And Magaluf beaches have excellent 4G these days.

    By the way, I see speculation that Greece and Spain are heading for Amber Plus, thereby threatening nearly 6 million holidays.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-plus-list-france-spain-greece-announcement-b1889926.html?amp
    What is amber plus anyway? Traffic lights have red, amber, green. Amber plus is absurd as creating a five-point scale and starting at 3.5.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    felix said:

    Rather than looking at the changes, look at Opinium’s absolute Boris Johnson net approval ratings this month:

    London +9
    Midlands -7
    South -9
    North -19
    Wales -21
    N Ireland -23
    Scotland -44

    The “Minister for the Union” is doing a fine job… dividing the UK.

    Looks like London is seriously off message. :smiley: Just what you'd expect from a reliable set os sub-samples..
    Shhh!

    Please do not point out flaws in the poll.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    I see the Tories want to publish the telephone numbers and email addresses of policemen and women.

    Reming me, how do the police usually vote?

    I suspect the 0% pay rise will bother them more than letting their work numbers and emails out.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.

    And that was the main point about my earlier post
    Boris starts to look like the tragic figure as old as time, who receives the punishment of getting exactly what he asked for. In his case, being in charge.
    Boris wants to be liked but power brings responsibility and decision making that are not compatible with his desire to be liked
    Johnson has his "hanging and flogging" initiative coming out on Tuesday. Will we see truck loads of RedWall love again then?

    However, Johnson's intervention will have to be pretty punchy after Javid's hard-man Covid tweets..
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    And Magaluf beaches have excellent 4G these days.

    By the way, I see speculation that Greece and Spain are heading for Amber Plus, thereby threatening nearly 6 million holidays.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-plus-list-france-spain-greece-announcement-b1889926.html?amp
    What is amber plus anyway? Traffic lights have red, amber, green. Amber plus is absurd as creating a five-point scale and starting at 3.5.
    Boris can’t do arithmetic. He does classics. Like Carry On Up The Creek.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.

    And that was the main point about my earlier post
    Boris starts to look like the tragic figure as old as time, who receives the punishment of getting exactly what he asked for. In his case, being in charge.
    Boris wants to be liked but power brings responsibility and decision making that are not compatible with his desire to be liked
    It would be fascinating to have true insight into what he’s really thinking, after the political spin and bravado are stripped away. He is when all is said and done, a thinker. And one who is trained in the classics. Even Cummings has noted his private introspection.

    He must have this continual internal tug of war. “What am I doing here! Step away.” Versus “No I deserve a good run at this, once this bad luck is out the way, I’ll show em”. With his highly ambitious wife no doubt feeding the latter.

    His memoirs might be quite a read but only if he can avoid the bear trap that Blair fell into, who seemed to use them solely as an exercise in spinning his own legacy for history.

    The trouble for him I suspect, is that there’s no sign the world will stop spinning faster after covid. If anything this decade is going to be even more difficult to navigate than the last, with rapid changes in technology impacting every aspect of the economy, the rise of an ever more assertive China, climate change and the spillover impact on migration flows, and finally of course the widespread and profound shift in our understanding of humanity’s place in the universe.
  • felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    And Magaluf beaches have excellent 4G these days.

    By the way, I see speculation that Greece and Spain are heading for Amber Plus, thereby threatening nearly 6 million holidays.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-plus-list-france-spain-greece-announcement-b1889926.html?amp
    What is amber plus anyway? Traffic lights have red, amber, green. Amber plus is absurd as creating a five-point scale and starting at 3.5.
    Is it red and amber together which really means green, or amber on its own which really means red unless you're going too fast which then makes it mean green?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,763
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.
    For who?

    Under 18 year olds?

    Or the rest of us? Especially those not vaccinated.

    That’s what the JCVI is grappling with and I don’t envy them their task. Perhaps you can enlighten them?
    The US has been vaccinating the 12-17 range since early April, without obvious issues.

    The evidence is that it is both efficacious and safe.

    Now we've hit a demand wall from adults, we should open up the vaccine for children.
    UAE and Israel also working through 12-17 group with no issues. Seems sensible now, to let kids who want vaccines get them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223

    I partially agree with Felix. I wake up knowing the thread will be bad news about Boris somewhere along the line. If the story is no change in the voting intention by Opinium, contrary to what had been expected, not to mention the no change on the voting intention is an omission that surprises me.



    In truth, I think Boris IS in the shit, and it's because most people are vaccinated and feel safer than they did. No need to hang on to the Govt for support... and furlough is ending.

    The Nat Insurance story is the one that is making the difference imho in voting intention and popularity. Noone likes to.pay more tax.

    Carlotta. Don't look now but your deputy is misfiring.......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,015
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.

    And that was the main point about my earlier post
    Boris starts to look like the tragic figure as old as time, who receives the punishment of getting exactly what he asked for. In his case, being in charge.
    Boris wants to be liked but power brings responsibility and decision making that are not compatible with his desire to be liked
    It would be fascinating to have true insight into what he’s really thinking, after the political spin and bravado are stripped away. He is when all is said and done, a thinker. And one who is trained in the classics. Even Cummings has noted his private introspection.

    He must have this continual internal tug of war. “What am I doing here! Step away.” Versus “No I deserve a good run at this, once this bad luck is out the way, I’ll show em”. With his highly ambitious wife no doubt feeding the latter.

    His memoirs might be quite a read but only if he can avoid the bear trap that Blair fell into, who seemed to use them solely as an exercise in spinning his own legacy for history.

    The trouble for him I suspect, is that there’s no sign the world will stop spinning faster after covid. If anything this decade is going to be even more difficult to navigate than the last, with rapid changes in technology impacting every aspect of the economy, the rise of an ever more assertive China, climate change and the spillover impact on migration flows, and finally of course the widespread and profound shift in our understanding of humanity’s place in the universe.

    Like Cameron, Johnson believes that he should be Prime Minister. That's it.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,562
    rcs1000 said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
    I wondered about that number when it was put up earlier as well.

    It's 45% of the whole population not fully vaccinated - 30% of adults plus all of the children.

    The implication presumably being that we should all stay locked up until all age groups, down to and including babies, have been jabbed twice? Or something.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.

    And that was the main point about my earlier post
    Boris starts to look like the tragic figure as old as time, who receives the punishment of getting exactly what he asked for. In his case, being in charge.
    Boris wants to be liked but power brings responsibility and decision making that are not compatible with his desire to be liked
    It would be fascinating to have true insight into what he’s really thinking, after the political spin and bravado are stripped away. He is when all is said and done, a thinker. And one who is trained in the classics. Even Cummings has noted his private introspection.

    He must have this continual internal tug of war. “What am I doing here! Step away.” Versus “No I deserve a good run at this, once this bad luck is out the way, I’ll show em”. With his highly ambitious wife no doubt feeding the latter.

    His memoirs might be quite a read but only if he can avoid the bear trap that Blair fell into, who seemed to use them solely as an exercise in spinning his own legacy for history.

    The trouble for him I suspect, is that there’s no sign the world will stop spinning faster after covid. If anything this decade is going to be even more difficult to navigate than the last, with rapid changes in technology impacting every aspect of the economy, the rise of an ever more assertive China, climate change and the spillover impact on migration flows, and finally of course the widespread and profound shift in our understanding of humanity’s place in the universe.

    Like Cameron, Johnson believes that he should be Prime Minister. That's it.

    Yes I think that’s right on one level. But Cummings has said that Boris has not infrequently wondered out loud how absurd it is he is in charge. That’s the more interesting level. There’s no doubt 500-600 MPs that think they should be PM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    EXC: A former Tory councillor won £120m emergency contract for PPE whose quality was so doubtful none was used last year

    To date, 0.26% of 120m items ordered have been sent to the NHS

    Yet Steve Dechan was still able to buy a majestic Cotswolds estate

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/638e017c-ecac-11eb-a9f0-ebe3f77d4a7e?shareToken=622b32a8dc9cf2fdda3ad72ffb2d48ce
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,037

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,680
    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478
    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,680
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
    I wondered about that number when it was put up earlier as well.

    It's 45% of the whole population not fully vaccinated - 30% of adults plus all of the children.

    The implication presumably being that we should all stay locked up until all age groups, down to and including babies, have been jabbed twice? Or something.
    why not? They don't work so we could have blitzed schools with teams of vaccinators....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
    I don’t think that’s a good comparison. The Falklands arguably rescued thatcher and enabled the win in 1983. For Johnson, Covid derailed the glories (sic) of ‘getting Brexit done’. He wants to be a politician for the sunlit uplands, not for a two year slug fest of a fight which we are barely winning.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’ve got nearly as many people with two doses (54%) as the EU (56%) and US (56.5%) have with one - and we’ve done that with a longer dosing gap that provides better long term protection.

    https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+(by+dose)&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~European+Union~USA
    Re: the dosing gap is that a permanent benefit?

    What I mean is the total level of protection “fixed” when you have the second jab

    Ie if you have 2 people who get their first jab at the same time (t=0)

    A: t+21 second jab
    B: t+56 second jab

    So at t+100 will they have the same protection or will B always be in a better position?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,015

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.

    It's a trick that comes with less upside each time now, though, as there are real world consequences. Any triggering of Article 16 to rally the faithful will have significant implications across the UK. The one thing he absolutely cannot afford to do is alienate the 55+ demographic that the Tories are so reliant on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,690
    Worth remembering that picking fights with the EU and talking about standing up for Britain (against the EU) were long approaches taken by politicians in opposition when we were members.

    This isn't a new thing, except that it now occurs in office.

    Previously, actions taken in office were then almost uniformly pro-EU, from throwing away half the rebate for nothing to turning up late to renege on a manifesto pledge and sign up to Lisbon.

    As a sidenote, some disagreements are going to happen until the Northern Ireland situation is sorted out. That may be a long time coming.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,642
    Sunak and Johnson's personal attempts to avoid self-isolation will only look half as bad if case numbers continue to fall.


    That's it, that's my only hot take on the matter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Roger said:

    A little perspective:


    What is the new perspective? I see a figure which is worse than Trump's before he was hammered at the US election and stands at a rather dismal -13.

    PS. Well done taking over the Sunday morning shift from Philip. It's about time they employed a female

    I don't think Boris is going to.encourage his supporters to storm Parliament and trash it.

    Rogerdamus.. never right, talks shite.
    We do have our own Q Anon. They had a big protest yesterday, and there was some quite scary stuff being said:

    I can’t believe I’m tweeting this. As an ICU doctor who has given everything they have trying to save lives this makes me want to cry.

    “Get their names, email them to me. At the Nuremberg trial the doctors and nurses stood trial, and they hung”.

    https://t.co/9tZeqru1Vk

    https://twitter.com/sbattrawden/status/1418984363304394762?s=19

    And there was more bat shit craziness too from Icke, Hopkins and Piers Corbyn. Satanic plots and 5g masts etc.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    Exactly. They are primarily looking at the risk/benefit for the children involved. They have sor generally come done against widespread vaccination. Other countries have chosen differently and many in the U.K. think it is wrong too, but they have taken the decision in good faith.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Roger said:

    I partially agree with Felix. I wake up knowing the thread will be bad news about Boris somewhere along the line. If the story is no change in the voting intention by Opinium, contrary to what had been expected, not to mention the no change on the voting intention is an omission that surprises me.



    In truth, I think Boris IS in the shit, and it's because most people are vaccinated and feel safer than they did. No need to hang on to the Govt for support... and furlough is ending.

    The Nat Insurance story is the one that is making the difference imho in voting intention and popularity. Noone likes to.pay more tax.

    Carlotta. Don't look now but your deputy is misfiring.......
    You can try and disguise it as much as you like but everybody knows you read the Guardian and talk shite. You have been talking shite since you first joined PB and getting it wrong time after time has been given "Legend" status on PB.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,914
    If Bo-Jo's goes, and he deserves to, I hope that whoever becomes PM when the dust settles retains one of his good qualities. Pragmatism. He isn't wedded to any unalterable belief despite the evidence against it.

    Most politicians believe in their principles and they are sure of the best way to achieve them. Evidence, when it crops up, is embraced or discarded according to how it fits their cause. Having no principles or deeply held beliefs frees Bo-Jo from the fetters of both discipline or intellectual rigour. But he avoids extremism too. I fear his pragmatism relies on luck and it must eventually end.

    He doesn't go with the evidence because he has the faults of a journalist too - the story is more important. However, his shibboleths are few.

    Thomas Huxley's memorable quote was ... "The great tragedy of science. The slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact." Boris may not have beautiful hypotheses, but he has no anchor in facts either.

    Few people do. Scientists are guilty of embracing beliefs rather than facts; that's why certain theories remain until they topple under the weight of the contradictions they amass. Beware the fanatic, the man certain about their beliefs, the activist even. Their minds are closed.

    At least, the golden rule (do unto others what you would have them do unto you) should reduce the harm. But
    if it was that easy, we'd all be Saints.






  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,790
    edited July 2021
    Very interesting Jade Jones knocked out of the Olympics by an athlete representing the "EOR" which is a composite team of refugees.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The summer holiday impact on finding samples for polls was a product of the period when almost all surveys were carried out by contacting people's landlines. The only firm still doing them is Ipsos MORI and they now have a means of polling people's mobiles.

    I can quite imagine getting back from the beach “sorry honey, I can’t go out. Need to check if YouGov has sent me a poll”
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,691
    Morning all.

    Yay ! A pro-Johnson story :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,763

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
    I don’t think that’s a good comparison. The Falklands arguably rescued thatcher and enabled the win in 1983. For Johnson, Covid derailed the glories (sic) of ‘getting Brexit done’. He wants to be a politician for the sunlit uplands, not for a two year slug fest of a fight which we are barely winning.
    There’s definitely a counterfactual there, that in the absence of a pandemic, the remaining Remoaners and their friends in the media would have been focussed on nothing but Brexit Bad stories for the last seven months.

    Which would probably not have been as good for the government, as the wildly successful vaccination scheme has been in reality.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,823
    Charles said:

    The summer holiday impact on finding samples for polls was a product of the period when almost all surveys were carried out by contacting people's landlines. The only firm still doing them is Ipsos MORI and they now have a means of polling people's mobiles.

    I can quite imagine getting back from the beach “sorry honey, I can’t go out. Need to check if YouGov has sent me a poll”
    And you're not even joking...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478

    Sunak and Johnson's personal attempts to avoid self-isolation will only look half as bad if case numbers continue to fall.


    That's it, that's my only hot take on the matter.

    No, the point isn't about their genius foresight in predicting Covid is over.

    The problem that will remain is there was one rule for them and another, more Draconian rule for the rest of us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War. Expect the anti EU rhetoric to be turned up. There is nothing Populists like more than blaming foreigners for the countries problems.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.

    But BoZo and Frost already claimed victory over the EU.

    Mission Accomplished.

    The greatest deal in history.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/in-a-word-frost-1.4619808
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,823
    CD13 said:

    If Bo-Jo's goes, and he deserves to, I hope that whoever becomes PM when the dust settles retains one of his good qualities. Pragmatism. He isn't wedded to any unalterable belief despite the evidence against it.

    Most politicians believe in their principles and they are sure of the best way to achieve them. Evidence, when it crops up, is embraced or discarded according to how it fits their cause. Having no principles or deeply held beliefs frees Bo-Jo from the fetters of both discipline or intellectual rigour. But he avoids extremism too. I fear his pragmatism relies on luck and it must eventually end.

    He doesn't go with the evidence because he has the faults of a journalist too - the story is more important. However, his shibboleths are few.

    Thomas Huxley's memorable quote was ... "The great tragedy of science. The slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact." Boris may not have beautiful hypotheses, but he has no anchor in facts either.

    Few people do. Scientists are guilty of embracing beliefs rather than facts; that's why certain theories remain until they topple under the weight of the contradictions they amass. Beware the fanatic, the man certain about their beliefs, the activist even. Their minds are closed.

    At least, the golden rule (do unto others what you would have them do unto you) should reduce the harm. But
    if it was that easy, we'd all be Saints.

    There's something in that - I used to hope Trump wouldn't be too bad, since he too didn't seem guided by any fixed ideology. But there's a democratic issue about being completely fancy-free and unpredictable. If people have no idea of the general direction you want to go in, how do they decide whether to vote for you? Purely because they like your rumpled hair and your jokes? If you then introduce a policy that hurts some people but you think oin the national interest, how can you really say you have a mandate for it?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    Exactly. They are primarily looking at the risk/benefit for the children involved. They have sor generally come done against widespread vaccination. Other countries have chosen differently and many in the U.K. think it is wrong too, but they have taken the decision in good faith.
    I don't doubt that they are acting in good faith, but as I understand it the MRHA has approved teenage vaccination on safety/efficacy grounds.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-mhra-concludes-positive-safety-profile-for-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-in-12-to-15-year-olds

    So I do think the JVCI needs to explain the basis that they have not approved it. The JVCI can look at other issues such as logistics, supply, cost efficacy etc, but the MRHA is the body that looks at safety and efficacy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    A post further demonstrating your complete and total inability to grasp reality.

    "Yes Prime Minister" was not a documentary.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,607

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    Difference is that before 2020, the fights were, in a sense, inside the family, and then a discreet fudge was possible and in everyone's interest.

    Now the fights are between completely separate entities, so the dynamics are different and not in a good way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Foxy said:

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War.
    I imagine people will be flocking to see The Forever Purge in cinemas - it's about a corrupt elite being destroyed as they cannot control what they unleashed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited July 2021

    Charles said:

    The summer holiday impact on finding samples for polls was a product of the period when almost all surveys were carried out by contacting people's landlines. The only firm still doing them is Ipsos MORI and they now have a means of polling people's mobiles.

    I can quite imagine getting back from the beach “sorry honey, I can’t go out. Need to check if YouGov has sent me a poll”
    And you're not even joking...
    Most sane people do not fill out You Gov or any other polls whilst on holiday. It goes into the .. can't be arsed I'll look at it when I get back folder by which time you get to.open it.. its too late..and for these holidays it's especially true as people have been locked up. I got a You Gov whilst on holiday and ignored it.

    My Lake District holiday was FAB...and in the circumstances probably one of THE best ever.






  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War.
    I imagine people will be flocking to see The Forever Purge in cinemas - it's about a corrupt elite being destroyed as they cannot control what they unleashed.
    That post could be the work of Eric Cantona.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    A post further demonstrating your complete and total inability to grasp reality.

    "Yes Prime Minister" was not a documentary.
    It might, and call me crazy here, just be possible he was making a joke?

    I assume you too are joking, unless you genuinely believe they think Jim Hacker was a real PM.
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    edited July 2021
    On vaccinations: I'd almost stopped laughing (in a well-meaning way) after hearing that Andrew Wakefield was dating Elle Macpherson, but then I looked in the PB archives for whether the relationship had been mentioned here, found that it had, took in the level of sheer incomprehension (conveying a sense of "What on earth has that guy got?"), and laughed some more!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,607
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    Exactly. They are primarily looking at the risk/benefit for the children involved. They have sor generally come done against widespread vaccination. Other countries have chosen differently and many in the U.K. think it is wrong too, but they have taken the decision in good faith.
    I don't doubt that they are acting in good faith, but as I understand it the MRHA has approved teenage vaccination on safety/efficacy grounds.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-mhra-concludes-positive-safety-profile-for-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-in-12-to-15-year-olds

    So I do think the JVCI needs to explain the basis that they have not approved it. The JVCI can look at other issues such as logistics, supply, cost efficacy etc, but the MRHA is the body that looks at safety and efficacy.
    That goes back to the hideous secrecy of the UK's vaccine delivery schedule. The best guess (Paul Mainwood) seems to be that we currently have enough jabs on tap to vaccinate all adults, but extending the programme to teenagers right now would push demand above supply.

    But we don't know for sure, because we're not being told.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War.
    I imagine people will be flocking to see The Forever Purge in cinemas - it's about a corrupt elite being destroyed as they cannot control what they unleashed.
    That post could be the work of Eric Cantona.
    He's a fan of unsubtle American satirical action films?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Gnud said:

    On vaccinations: I'd almost stopped laughing (in a well-meaning way) after hearing that Andrew Wakefield was dating Elle Macpherson, but then I looked in the PB archives for whether the relationship had been mentioned here, found that it had, took in the level of sheer incomprehension (conveying a sense of "What on earth has that guy got?"), and laughed some more!

    I'm not sure where the humour is found. Incomprehension is because he is a dreadful man.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478
    edited July 2021
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    A post further demonstrating your complete and total inability to grasp reality.

    "Yes Prime Minister" was not a documentary.
    It might, and call me crazy here, just be possible he was making a joke?

    I assume you too are joking, unless you genuinely believe they think Jim Hacker was a real PM.
    Come to think of it, "Yes Minister/Prime Minister" was better steeped in reality that our current political sitcom.

    And as to your first paragraph. Root has humour?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    Difference is that before 2020, the fights were, in a sense, inside the family, and then a discreet fudge was possible and in everyone's interest.

    Now the fights are between completely separate entities, so the dynamics are different and not in a good way.
    Apparently we can negotiate a deal, proclaim it to the world as being The Deal, AND attack said deal and then tear it up less than a year later, and still win the trust of other countries we want to negotiate a deal with.

    America has a massive Irish caucus in Congress. Is very clear that our crapping on the GFA is a Red Line. Yet people still come on here with a straight face insisting that if we tear up our own deal (A16) and crap on the GRA that the US Congress will vote through a preferential trade deal with the UK "because its in their interests".

    Trust is critical. Lose that trust and have your word worth very little and there is no business to be done. Too many Tory voters (and apparently a few PB Clown Apologists) still think Britain Uber Alles so we should be allowed to Do What We Like, hence the idiot thrashing around.

    So they will keep grandstanding. No-one needs to read this deal says IDS and then who knew this deal would do what it does? The rest of the world looks on, scratches its head and backs away slowly. Except for Australia who see a bonza opportunity to get a ludicrous 1-sided deal through cos the Pommie Bastards are too stupid to know what they are doing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    Difference is that before 2020, the fights were, in a sense, inside the family, and then a discreet fudge was possible and in everyone's interest.

    Now the fights are between completely separate entities, so the dynamics are different and not in a good way.
    I can remember some of the more lackwitted leavers, even by their dismal standards, were assuring us that a benefit of Brexit was that British politicians wouldn't be able to blame their problems on the EU.
    That was always silly. Politicians will always blame others and that wasnt going to change.

    But they may find it harder to make the claim in future.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    Some anecdata from Leicester:

    Hospital and ICU numbers stable at around 80, about 20% of the peak. Weekly covid command meetings reinstated and the press gangs out to staff ICU and Medical wards. The August rotation day is 10 days away when all junior staff move units so a lot are on end of contract leave. ED not quite so overflowing as midweek.

    Foxjr2 has survived his superspreader night out in the nightclubs of Leicester with his old schoolmates from universities across the land. He reports that it was a bit of a zoo on Friday night, but got home without the aid of either ambulance or police car, so counts as a success.

    I ran some errands in the city yesterday after work. Considerably busier than previous Saturdays, and variable mask adherence, some shops near 100% others hardly at all. Overall, probably half the rate of before. Not much in the demographic pattern, by age or ethnicity, with a gang of Somali lads wearing them for example, while middle aged folk were not. Lots of pale flesh with bad tattoos on show.
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
    I don’t think that’s a good comparison. The Falklands arguably rescued thatcher and enabled the win in 1983. For Johnson, Covid derailed the glories (sic) of ‘getting Brexit done’. He wants to be a politician for the sunlit uplands, not for a two year slug fest of a fight which we are barely winning.
    No - Thatcher won in 1983 with a reduced voteshare and an even more reduced number of votes because of the SDP operation, not because of the Falklands.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,813
    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,607
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    A post further demonstrating your complete and total inability to grasp reality.

    "Yes Prime Minister" was not a documentary.
    It might, and call me crazy here, just be possible he was making a joke?

    I assume you too are joking, unless you genuinely believe they think Jim Hacker was a real PM.
    I knew Jin Hacker, Jim Hacker was a friend of mine, Boris Johnson is no Jim Hacker.
    The joke about "There have been more unlikely Prime Ministers. I wonder who." is rather less funny after PMBJ.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    A post further demonstrating your complete and total inability to grasp reality.

    "Yes Prime Minister" was not a documentary.
    It might, and call me crazy here, just be possible he was making a joke?

    I assume you too are joking, unless you genuinely believe they think Jim Hacker was a real PM.
    I knew Jin Hacker, Jim Hacker was a friend of mine, Boris Johnson is no Jim Hacker.
    Jim Hacker abandoned a safe employment investment due to baseless political scaremongering whilst a minister, sparked a diplomatic spat with the Soviets to avoid bad press, cast out a political ally after being manipulated into it, and blackmailed a senior official to lie under oath about his (inadvertently) misleading the House.

    The man was a Borisian disgrace :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Gnud said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
    I don’t think that’s a good comparison. The Falklands arguably rescued thatcher and enabled the win in 1983. For Johnson, Covid derailed the glories (sic) of ‘getting Brexit done’. He wants to be a politician for the sunlit uplands, not for a two year slug fest of a fight which we are barely winning.
    No - Thatcher won in 1983 with a reduced voteshare and an even more reduced number of votes because of the SDP operation, not because of the Falklands.

    That’s not the widespread opinion.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2021

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    They didn’t

    They ruled on prioritisation - better return from focusing on recalcitrants - not safety/efficacy

    Edit: also MHRA looks at individual safety/efficacy not at the herd level
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: A former Tory councillor won £120m emergency contract for PPE whose quality was so doubtful none was used last year

    To date, 0.26% of 120m items ordered have been sent to the NHS

    Yet Steve Dechan was still able to buy a majestic Cotswolds estate

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/638e017c-ecac-11eb-a9f0-ebe3f77d4a7e?shareToken=622b32a8dc9cf2fdda3ad72ffb2d48ce

    Nothing to see here. Tender awarded competitively, PPE delivered before the cash, no link between the contractor and the people awarding the contracts.

    No wonder they don't want a public enquiry.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    There is history here. Jim Hacker fought the EU over sausages.Boris is doing it now.
    Difference is that before 2020, the fights were, in a sense, inside the family, and then a discreet fudge was possible and in everyone's interest.

    Now the fights are between completely separate entities, so the dynamics are different and not in a good way.
    No the dynamics are different in a good way now.

    Now the PM knows he is solely accountable to the British electorate and has nowhere to hide with that. No "family" obligations leading to throwing half the rebate away for nothing, or signing Lisbon against the manifesto.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,763

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    JVCI are more like NICE, in that they also need to account for things like the cost of running the programme, and also factor the ‘cost’ of an unexpectedly terrible event occurring during the programme - think of a story similar to Leah Betts, but with the headlines “Killed by Her Vaccine”, and how that might feed into not only the teenagers, but also to the general population if booster does are required.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War.
    I imagine people will be flocking to see The Forever Purge in cinemas - it's about a corrupt elite being destroyed as they cannot control what they unleashed.
    I haven't seen it, my reference was to the classic Sci-fi antiwar novel "The Forever War" in which the earth government keeps a pointless war going against an overhyped enemy partly because it finds it economically useful, and partly out of habit and sunk costs.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

    Which is where the first part of the equation comes in. They worried that if rates of vaccination started going up (because you are jabbing lots of kids) people would lose focus on the difficult to reach adults
  • Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    A little perspective:


    What is the new perspective? I see a figure which is worse than Trump's before he was hammered at the US election and stands at a rather dismal -13.

    PS. Well done taking over the Sunday morning shift from Philip. It's about time they employed a female

    I don't think Boris is going to.encourage his supporters to storm Parliament and trash it.

    Rogerdamus.. never right, talks shite.
    We do have our own Q Anon. They had a big protest yesterday, and there was some quite scary stuff being said:

    I can’t believe I’m tweeting this. As an ICU doctor who has given everything they have trying to save lives this makes me want to cry.

    “Get their names, email them to me. At the Nuremberg trial the doctors and nurses stood trial, and they hung”.

    https://t.co/9tZeqru1Vk

    https://twitter.com/sbattrawden/status/1418984363304394762?s=19

    And there was more bat shit craziness too from Icke, Hopkins and Piers Corbyn. Satanic plots and 5g masts etc.
    I doubt the level of Boris support in that crowd matches the level of Trump support in a US equivalent.

    I'd love to see a poll of them to find out if they're more leave or remain, and whether they're "better educated" than the average thick leaver/tory supporter..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    They didn’t

    They ruled on prioritisation - better return from focusing on recalcitrants - not safety/efficacy

    Edit: also MHRA looks at individual safety/efficacy not at the herd level
    Why the need for 'prioritisation'? We have plenty of vaccines and plenty of capacity.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War.
    I imagine people will be flocking to see The Forever Purge in cinemas - it's about a corrupt elite being destroyed as they cannot control what they unleashed.
    I haven't seen it, my reference was to the classic Sci-fi antiwar novel "The Forever War" in which the earth government keeps a pointless war going against an overhyped enemy partly because it finds it economically useful, and partly out of habit and sunk costs.
    But Eurasia has always been at war with Eastasia
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968

    Gnud said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
    I don’t think that’s a good comparison. The Falklands arguably rescued thatcher and enabled the win in 1983. For Johnson, Covid derailed the glories (sic) of ‘getting Brexit done’. He wants to be a politician for the sunlit uplands, not for a two year slug fest of a fight which we are barely winning.
    No - Thatcher won in 1983 with a reduced voteshare and an even more reduced number of votes because of the SDP operation, not because of the Falklands.

    That’s not the widespread opinion.
    Nor was it how it felt. As I recall it, having been involved, although not as much as in previous elections. There was a very positive air about the Tories, and basically the Alliance was scrapping with Labour for second place.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Bbc up to its old tricks of pretending stuff is live from the olympics. Taekwondo on bbc1 now way behind the bbc website commentary...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    Charles said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

    Which is where the first part of the equation comes in. They worried that if rates of vaccination started going up (because you are jabbing lots of kids) people would lose focus on the difficult to reach adults
    I probably have a different priority to some. I now don’t care if unvaxxed adults are left gasping for breath. I do care if we casually cancel A Levels for the third year running,
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,813
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    They didn’t

    They ruled on prioritisation - better return from focusing on recalcitrants - not safety/efficacy

    Edit: also MHRA looks at individual safety/efficacy not at the herd level
    Well I'm glad if that's the case, but bizarrely everything I have heard in the media - including from members of JCVI - has been on the question of safety and efficacy. Perhaps I ought to hunt out the details directly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
    The MRHA considers efficacy as well as safety. To quote from the MRHA section of the gov.uk website:

    "Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said:
    “We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.

    “We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group.

    “No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met.

    “It will now be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to advise on whether this age group will be vaccinated as part of the deployment programme.”

    Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines said:
    “We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

    “We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,715
    Gnud said:

    Jonathan said:

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Good post. The cycle is set. Every time there is a problem, the government will reach for a battle with the EU.
    The virus is like Thatcher's Falklands of the 80s, except only 350 odd soldiers lost their lives then.
    I don’t think that’s a good comparison. The Falklands arguably rescued thatcher and enabled the win in 1983. For Johnson, Covid derailed the glories (sic) of ‘getting Brexit done’. He wants to be a politician for the sunlit uplands, not for a two year slug fest of a fight which we are barely winning.
    No - Thatcher won in 1983 with a reduced voteshare and an even more reduced number of votes because of the SDP operation, not because of the Falklands.

    The second preferences of SDP voters seem to have been more for Con than Lab, so although they both reduced the Con and Lab vote share they don't seem to be responsible for the size of the Con lead over Lab.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/uk_politics/10/alternative_vote/alternative_vote_june_09_notes.pdf
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

    Which is where the first part of the equation comes in. They worried that if rates of vaccination started going up (because you are jabbing lots of kids) people would lose focus on the difficult to reach adults
    I probably have a different priority to some. I now don’t care if unvaxxed adults are left gasping for breath. I do care if we casually cancel A Levels for the third year running,
    Seems unlikely. Simply changing the rules to allow daily testing for contacts would keep most kids in school with the current level of virus. I hope and think the virus will be much less of an issue in 10 months time.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited July 2021
    For MexicanPete

    You are so wrapped up in your loathing of Boris, and attacking me, you are unable to see a little joke..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
    The MRHA considers efficacy as well as safety. To quote from the MRHA section of the gov.uk website:

    "Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said:
    “We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.

    “We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group.

    “No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met.

    “It will now be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to advise on whether this age group will be vaccinated as part of the deployment programme.”

    Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines said:
    “We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

    “We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
    Yep. But it is still possible for different people to see the same data and draw different conclusions. E.g. Brexit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

    It looks like we can look forward to a University Freshers wave, assuming of course that Universities are teaching in person.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    .

    Johnson cannot stop being Johnson. His ratings will move up and down. The concern for the country - if not the Tories, who are not interested in the country - is that the government is entirely incoherent because Johnson is Johnson. Javid and Sunak are clearly manoeuvring for what they believe is a leadership election that will come sooner rather than later, while we have genuine simpletons in control of education and the Home Office. The challenges are coming thick and fast - and will only intensify come the autumn, when it looks like Lord Frost and his boss are intent on another battle with the EU. We are going to get more divided over the coming period, not less.

    Peston said on Thursday, throughout his career, be that in journalism or in politics, whenever he is on the ropes, Johnson picks fights with the EU. It is his safety net. From his fictional ban of pink sausages to his renegotiation of the NI Protocol, this wizard wheeze serves to secure his tenure in his job and bolster his popularity.
    Yes, Brexit is not Done, it is the Forever War.
    I imagine people will be flocking to see The Forever Purge in cinemas - it's about a corrupt elite being destroyed as they cannot control what they unleashed.
    I haven't seen it, my reference was to the classic Sci-fi antiwar novel "The Forever War" in which the earth government keeps a pointless war going against an overhyped enemy partly because it finds it economically useful, and partly out of habit and sunk costs.
    Yes, a good novel, though I wonder how the section where the protagonist (who is experiencing time differently) finds himself in a period where being gay is near universal and practically mandatory would fly now.

    The sequel Forever Free was terrible. My copy comes with Forever Peace, which is apparently not actually connected.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    Charles said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

    Which is where the first part of the equation comes in. They worried that if rates of vaccination started going up (because you are jabbing lots of kids) people would lose focus on the difficult to reach adults
    "...people would lose focus on the difficult to reach adults"

    Which 'people'?

    Are you just making this up or do you have any evidence this is what actually shaped JCVI thinking? (I note the last published JCVI minutes are from April 2021.)
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
    The MRHA considers efficacy as well as safety. To quote from the MRHA section of the gov.uk website:

    "Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said:
    “We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.

    “We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group.

    “No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met.

    “It will now be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to advise on whether this age group will be vaccinated as part of the deployment programme.”

    Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines said:
    “We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

    “We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
    Are my maths right the if you let delta burn through an unvaxxed secondary school, you’d expect to see between one and two hospitalisations? If so vaxxing secondary schools seems an obvious decision.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
    You do 16-18 year olds when they return to school
    Why wait until then?

    Give them the first dose now and they could have some protection *before* they return to school.
    JCVI view was more valuable to focus on persuading the recalcitrants.

    Also much more efficient and comprehensive to do them all on site in one go
    Well, they could have done that with the first dose before the summer break. But also, I’d rather scoop as many A-level students up now rather than waiting until September, to reduce the chances of schools being arbitrarily shut again next term.

    It looks like we can look forward to a University Freshers wave, assuming of course that Universities are teaching in person.
    We are planning a mixed approach again. Some lecture content will be online, but most tutorials and workshops, plus all practicals will be in person.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    edited July 2021

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
    The MRHA considers efficacy as well as safety. To quote from the MRHA section of the gov.uk website:

    "Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said:
    “We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.

    “We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group.

    “No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met.

    “It will now be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to advise on whether this age group will be vaccinated as part of the deployment programme.”

    Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines said:
    “We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

    “We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
    Yep. But it is still possible for different people to see the same data and draw different conclusions. E.g. Brexit.
    Possibly so. Perhaps it would be nice if the JVCI would let us know what different reasoning they are using.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    They didn’t

    They ruled on prioritisation - better return from focusing on recalcitrants - not safety/efficacy

    Edit: also MHRA looks at individual safety/efficacy not at the herd level
    Why the need for 'prioritisation'? We have plenty of vaccines and plenty of capacity.
    I haven’t been party to their discussion but I suspect it is to do with focusing attention
  • CandyCandy Posts: 51
    edited July 2021



    America has a massive Irish caucus in Congress.

    It's not "massive".

    Here is the list of the Congressional Friends of Ireland:

    http://www.irishnationalcaucus.org/congressional-friends-116th-congress-2019-2021/

    36 members - 5 senators plus 31 congressmen. That's out of a Senate of 100 Senators and 435 in the House of Representatives.

    Their real test will be whether they can prevent Biden (who is supposedly Irish) from completely trashing Ireland's economic model with his global minimum tax. They're not going to waste their political capital on the NI protocol.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
    The MRHA considers efficacy as well as safety. To quote from the MRHA section of the gov.uk website:

    "Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said:
    “We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.

    “We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group.

    “No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met.

    “It will now be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to advise on whether this age group will be vaccinated as part of the deployment programme.”

    Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines said:
    “We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

    “We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
    Yep. But it is still possible for different people to see the same data and draw different conclusions. E.g. Brexit.
    Possibly so. Perhaps it would be nice if the JVCI would let us know what different reasoning they are using.
    I think you are absolutely right on this. Such a crucial decision does need clear explanations, so far lacking. And a useless media that is not asking the right questions (holidays!!!!)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,813

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    The decision by JVCI on vaccinating under 18 was based on their review of science and available data.

    You may disagree - although I’d be interested to know your qualifications - but the decision wasn’t “crass”
    I think the JCVI have stepped outside their remit.

    The MHRA have already approved Pfizer for teenagers on safety and efficacy grounds. This means the appropriate experts have made the risk/benefit judgement. Why is the JCVI having a do-over on that decision?

    The remit of the JCVI is on things like the prioritization order, deciding if boosters for adults would be more useful than vaccinating teenagers, whether it's worth delaying boosters until vaccines tailored to variants are available, whether doing second doses fast is better than spacing them out to make them more effective, etc.

    They shouldn't be throwing shade on decisions made by the MHRA. It's massively irresponsible and an overreach of their responsibilities.

    If they have other reasons why it makes sense not to vaccinate teenagers, then fine, let's hear them, but, "we think the MHRA were wrong," is out of order.
    You have to look at what ‘safe’ means. A 1 in 1,000,000 death would still get the vaccine approved as safe, but if the risk of Covid is lower, you can make the case for not approving use. For U18 there is minimal risk from vaccine and Covid, so it’s not an obvious decision. For the population as a whole it seems a no brainer that We should vaccinate as many as possible.
    In no way have the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation over stepped their mark. Deciding on this is their job. Mhra decides if it’s safe as a vaccines, the jcvi decides if it is justified. I don’t agree with their decision, but it is their decision, unless the government says otherwise.
    The MRHA considers efficacy as well as safety. To quote from the MRHA section of the gov.uk website:

    "Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said:
    “We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.

    “We have in place a comprehensive safety surveillance strategy for monitoring the safety of all UK-approved COVID-19 vaccines and this surveillance will include the 12- to 15-year age group.

    “No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met.

    “It will now be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to advise on whether this age group will be vaccinated as part of the deployment programme.”

    Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines said:
    “We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

    “We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
    Yep. But it is still possible for different people to see the same data and draw different conclusions. E.g. Brexit.
    Which is why generally you have to give the responsibility for a decision to one individual/body, otherwise nothing would get done. This decision was made by the MHRA. it's not for the JCVI to make it again and, according to Charles, they haven't, but have made their decision on entirely different grounds.
This discussion has been closed.