Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Opinium has the Midlands and the North recording the biggest falls in Boris’s approval ratings – pol

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 25 in General
imageOpinium has the Midlands and the North recording the biggest falls in Boris’s approval ratings – politicalbetting.com

Overnight we have the latest Opinium poll for the Observer which includes the regular approval ratings. The chart takes the latest numbers by region and shows the changes since the firm’s May 13th poll when the PM’s “vaccine bounce” was at its peak.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,907
    Test
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692
    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 855
    Bluff and bluster are all very well, but they can only take you so far. It may be the summer holiday season, but have people really gone away from home as much as usual? People were always going to see through "Boris" sooner or later. What the country needs now is a real prime minister. Please....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    Boris is becoming less popular in the Midlands and North, according to the header bar chart. Are the red wallers still waiting to be levelled up?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    edited July 25
    The Sunday Express front page lead is Boris's plan to blitz crime, which apparently involves victims being allocated a named police officer. It will be interesting to see if there is anything new here or if it is just dead cat reannouncements of existing policy.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57958278
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    The Olympics is not going well, with Andy Murray and Jade Jones out.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,651
    Magnificent dawn here.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    The polling was not taken "in the middle of the summer holiday season" unless you are referring to Etonians. State schools mostly broke up this Friday, after this polling was completed.

    The straw clutching by some pb tories tells me an awful lot about how precarious they really think their position is. If they wrote that they expected a mid-term slump at some point but believed Boris would nevertheless turn it around for the election then I'd pay more attention. The outright denial of plain facts is dissembling.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    What were the corresponding voting intention changes in the Midlands and the North?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    edited July 25
    I partially agree with Felix. I wake up knowing the thread will be bad news about Boris somewhere along the line. If the story is no change in the voting intention by Opinium, contrary to what had been expected, not to mention the no change on the voting intention is an omission that surprises me.



    In truth, I think Boris IS in the shit, and it's because most people are vaccinated and feel safer than they did. No need to hang on to the Govt for support... and furlough is ending.

    The Nat Insurance story is the one that is making the difference imho in voting intention and popularity. Noone likes to.pay more tax.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    Britain provides such a case study for two reasons. One is that Delta arrived early. The other is that a speedy vaccination campaign means the country has offered two jabs to all of the most vulnerable, and at least one to all adults. Nearly 95% of over-65s in England have been vaccinated, compared with 80% of that age group in America and fewer still in the European Union. As a result of this and better treatment for those who fall ill, the British case-fatality rate has fallen sharply. Many countries will not have caught up by the time the Delta variant takes off, so in this sense Britain provides a best-case scenario.

    https://amp.economist.com/britain/2021/07/20/britain-tests-the-limits-of-mass-vaccination?__twitter_impression=true
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 648
    Ten seconds reviewing the relevant Wikipedia page confirms that Johnson's leadership ratings have tanked before, following a similar pattern to the Tories' ebbing and flowing poll lead. They were consistently bad through the Autumn and much of the Winter, corresponding neatly with the period when the Lab/Con margin was tight and Labour was recording some leads.

    His position is, therefore, recoverable. Whether it will recover later is anybody's guess. But there's no particular reason at this stage to believe that a great mass of his erstwhile supporters have seen through the man, or fallen out of love with him, or whatever. It may simply be, and I know this might be a controversial suggestion, that Boris Johnson isn't the Pied Piper and the new fraction of the Tory electoral coalition aren't bewitched, mindless followers under his spell, but that the relationship is transactional.

    The Government is seen to be doing poorly at the moment so its position softens; should the Plague crisis finally abate by September, and the more doom-laden predictions be proven false, then it may pull ahead again. The only constant is that people get far too excited by opinion polls. Labour was ahead in them for almost the entirety of the 2010-2015 Parliament; Theresa May was recording 20pt leads less than a month out from GE2017. Look what happened next.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    The polling was not taken "in the middle of the summer holiday season" unless you are referring to Etonians. State schools mostly broke up this Friday, after this polling was completed.

    The straw clutching by some pb tories tells me an awful lot about how precarious they really think their position is. If they wrote that they expected a mid-term slump at some point but believed Boris would nevertheless turn it around for the election then I'd pay more attention. The outright denial of plain facts is dissembling.
    When I was in.the Lake district in mid July, there were lots of kids about. They can't all be private school. For starters there were no exams AFAIK so school will have finished weeks previously to official tem end for lots of kids.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    Good morning

    I do not think there can be any doubt after the last 10 days of shambles from Boris that his poll ratings are falling and to be fair it is only in this period that we have seen such a dramatic change

    I would attribute it to several causes including his misstep over his initial isolation, the public's fear of any lifting of lockdown, but singularly the chaos over pinging double vaccinated to isolate when apparently on the 16th August this requirement disappears. It is incomprehensible and ridiculous.

    It has caused the obvious knock on to tens of thousands in isolation unnecessarily, many more deleting the app, and shortages in delivery to supermarkets that provides very real evidence to the public of the failure of this policy

    However, I doubt in the short term it will have much affect on Boris's tenure as there are only three ways he can be replaced and there are no signs any of these are relevant just now.

    1) Conservative mps decide he has to go
    2) There is a GE
    3) He decides to go himself

    In an ideal world I would be delighted to see Rishi takeover today, but that is for the future and I would just suggest caution to those who are desperate for Boris to go, as I do not see his successor largely changing anything on covid, brexit, or the economy

    Indeed, if the evidence seen in the daily figures continues to show a fall in infections and death rates and we enter herd immunity the picture for Boris could just as easily charge again

    And It is not as if there is a competent opposition waiting in the wings to take over
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    The polling was not taken "in the middle of the summer holiday season" unless you are referring to Etonians. State schools mostly broke up this Friday, after this polling was completed.

    The straw clutching by some pb tories tells me an awful lot about how precarious they really think their position is. If they wrote that they expected a mid-term slump at some point but believed Boris would nevertheless turn it around for the election then I'd pay more attention. The outright denial of plain facts is dissembling.
    When I was in.the Lake district in mid July, there were lots of kids about. They can't all be private school. For starters there were no exams AFAIK so school will have finished weeks previously to official tem end for lots of kids.
    Our schools broke up on Friday 16th July
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,805
    pigeon said:

    Ten seconds reviewing the relevant Wikipedia page confirms that Johnson's leadership ratings have tanked before, following a similar pattern to the Tories' ebbing and flowing poll lead. They were consistently bad through the Autumn and much of the Winter, corresponding neatly with the period when the Lab/Con margin was tight and Labour was recording some leads.

    The detail of what people thinknk about Johnson from Opinium:



    My reaction to the 4th graph: People think he has principles?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,557

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start. It was always the case that other countries would catch up. Logically it couldn’t be any other way.


  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 25

    Good morning


    And It is not as if there is a competent opposition waiting in the wings to take over

    Good morning.

    Some of your post I agree with but this last remark is careless.

    Whatever you think of Keir Starmer (uncharismatic, dour, unnecessarily anti-Corbynite, too pro-EU etc. etc) incompetent is not a fair charge. He's very competent.

    That doesn't necessarily mean he would make a better PM than Johnson, although I'm sure he would, but he's perfectly 'competent.'

    I suspect it will take time for Labour support to grow, but grow it will. I think we vastly underestimate the poisonous effect that Jeremy Corbyn had on vast swathes of sensible middle Britain. I still encounter people who mention Corbyn and who could not, ever, vote for Labour whilst he was in charge. The fan club will never get this but he was a walking deadly nightshade. A thoroughly nasty piece of anti-semitic, misogynist, shit who caused untold damage to the Labour Party.

    For the tories to tank properly in the polls will not just take their own popularity to ebb. It requires the opposition parties to rise too. The LibDems are (evidentially) rising again. The SNP are doing their usual stuff north of the border and Labour in Wales are in good fettle. It's Labour in England (and Scotland) where the issues lie. Until they begin to rebuild support properly Boris Johnson's Government will continue to perform better in the overall voting intention figures than his (un)popularity would suggest.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’ve got nearly as many people with two doses (54%) as the EU (56%) and US (56.5%) have with one - and we’ve done that with a longer dosing gap that provides better long term protection.

    https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+(by+dose)&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~European+Union~USA
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    An utterly complacent post. If we were over 80% of vaccinated I'd accept, but we're nowhere near that level.

    45% of British citizens are unvaccinated. That's a disaster in the making if we don't get our act together. Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.

    We began well but I'm afraid the Government took its eye off the ball and thought we'd done enough because we had vaccinated the most vulnerable. This ignored the fact that the virus can rip through the remaining population if they're not vaccinated.

    You just wait until a mutation properly side-steps the vaccines which has to be a very real possibility this autumn/winter.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    Good morning


    And It is not as if there is a competent opposition waiting in the wings to take over

    Good morning.

    Some of your post I agree with but this last remark is careless.

    Whatever you think of Keir Starmer (uncharismatic, dour, unnecessarily anti-Corbynite, too pro-EU etc. etc) incompetent is not a fair charge. He's very competent.

    That doesn't necessarily mean he would make a better PM than Johnson, although I'm sure he would, but he's perfectly 'competent.'

    I suspect it will take time for Labour support to grow, but grow it will. I think we vastly underestimate the poisonous effect that Jeremy Corbyn had on vast swathes of sensible middle Britain. I still encounter people who mention Corbyn and who could not, ever, vote for Labour whilst he was in charge. The fan club will never get this but he was a walking deadly nightshade. A thoroughly nasty piece of anti-semitic, misogynist, shit who caused untold damage to the Labour Party.

    For the tories to tank properly in the polls will not just take their own popularity to ebb. It requires the opposition parties to rise too. The LibDems are (evidentially) rising again. The SNP are doing their usual stuff north of the border and Labour in Wales are in good fettle. It's Labour in England (and Scotland) where the issues lie. Until they begin to rebuild support properly Boris Johnson's Government will continue to perform better in the overall voting intention figures than his (un)popularity would suggest.
    I would not disagree with much of that but even this last week Starmer was against vaccine passports then reversed within hours
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’ve got nearly as many people with two doses (54%) as the EU (56%) and US (56.5%) have with one - and we’ve done that with a longer dosing gap that provides better long term protection.
    You're not great at comprehending trends, are you? :smiley:

    The EU is fast catching up. Countries such as Spain will be overtaking us soon.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    An utterly complacent post. If we were over 80% of vaccinated I'd accept, but we're nowhere near that level.

    45% of British citizens are unvaccinated. That's a disaster in the making if we don't get our act together. Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.

    We began well but I'm afraid the Government took its eye off the ball and thought we'd done enough because we had vaccinated the most vulnerable. This ignored the fact that the virus can rip through the remaining population if they're not vaccinated.

    You just wait until a mutation properly side-steps the vaccines which has to be a very real possibility this autumn/winter.
    For clarification does your 45% of British Citizens unvaccinated include all children and babies and where is Sage advice to vaccinate all children
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    edited July 25

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.
    For who?

    Under 18 year olds?

    Or the rest of us? Especially those not vaccinated.

    That’s what the JCVI is grappling with and I don’t envy them their task. Perhaps you can enlighten them?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    The polling was not taken "in the middle of the summer holiday season" unless you are referring to Etonians. State schools mostly broke up this Friday, after this polling was completed.

    The straw clutching by some pb tories tells me an awful lot about how precarious they really think their position is. If they wrote that they expected a mid-term slump at some point but believed Boris would nevertheless turn it around for the election then I'd pay more attention. The outright denial of plain facts is dissembling.
    Lol. I'm only repeating what has been said on here many times in the past. The fact that the actual opinium poll doesn't get mentioned tells a much bigger story than the movements in Johson's personal ratings. No-one expects the polls to remain the same at all times. Nor has anyone denied the selected details of some recent polls. it is the selection which is always the most interesting.and the assumption that once any change occurs that's the next election over.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    You don't need to leave your home to have a break from politics.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,557

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Ten seconds reviewing the relevant Wikipedia page confirms that Johnson's leadership ratings have tanked before, following a similar pattern to the Tories' ebbing and flowing poll lead. They were consistently bad through the Autumn and much of the Winter, corresponding neatly with the period when the Lab/Con margin was tight and Labour was recording some leads.

    The detail of what people thinknk about Johnson from Opinium:



    My reaction to the 4th graph: People think he has principles?
    People who haven't met him, which is lots of people. And the realisation that BoJo is utterly hollow, a chameleon who will say anything, believe anything, to ingratiate and crawl closer to the big chair, is a pretty drastic one. So people reasonably wait until the evidence is really strong. And nobody likes to think they've been conned.

    It's not an original insight, but BoJo has trained himself to make a great first impression. Good political skill that one, and the only difference about Boris is how utterly brilliant he is at it. But he makes a terrible third impression.
    Hopefully the sheen is coming off but I fear we’ve been here before.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Actually, it's not quite fair to say Johnson is too stupid to realise. I think he and those around him DO realise the precarious position we're in which is why they are now issuing after-the-horse-has-bolted threats such as 'Jabs required for nightclubs' and 'you can only attend the Premier League if you've been jabbed.'

    The Government realise that the vaccination situation here is not going well and they're trying to bribe and coerce the remaining chunk to get jabbed.

    Not vaccinating under-18's is a significant problem.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    Actually, it's not quite fair to say Johnson is too stupid to realise. I think he and those around him DO realise the precarious position we're in which is why they are now issuing after-the-horse-has-bolted threats such as 'Jabs required for nightclubs' and 'you can only attend the Premier League if you've been jabbed.'

    The Government realise that the vaccination situation here is not going well and they're trying to bribe and coerce the remaining chunk to get jabbed.

    Not vaccinating under-18's is a significant problem.

    No government can vaccinate under 18s if Sage do not recommend it

    In view of your assertions can you provide Sage's official stance on this
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568
    Apparently there's always a level down from rock bottom.
    Was there a special q for Scots: whit de ye think of that f****** lying, useless w***** noo?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited July 25
    I wonder if it’s because lockdown has always been rather less strict in those areas due to the different economy, but at the same time restrictions out with lockdown are more irksome. In the South, a higher proportion of people work in offices and white collar roles. Easy to do over Zoom and quite comfortable for them. They can take breaks when they like and life is more relaxed. In the Midlands in particular, the backbone of the economy is manufacturing and engineering. You can’t make a car from home.

    Therefore, the delays in releasing restrictions - face masks, distancing, out of hours leisure - do have much more negative consequences for those areas than for the south.

    That’s pure speculation of course but it might be a point to consider.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    Apparently there's always a level down from rock bottom.
    Was there a special q for Scots: whit de ye think of that f****** lying, useless w***** noo?

    I think we know the answer to that one but maybe the SNP will face some real questions of their own from Scotland’s Police
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited July 25

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,423

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Ten seconds reviewing the relevant Wikipedia page confirms that Johnson's leadership ratings have tanked before, following a similar pattern to the Tories' ebbing and flowing poll lead. They were consistently bad through the Autumn and much of the Winter, corresponding neatly with the period when the Lab/Con margin was tight and Labour was recording some leads.

    The detail of what people thinknk about Johnson from Opinium:



    My reaction to the 4th graph: People think he has principles?
    People who haven't met him, which is lots of people. And the realisation that BoJo is utterly hollow, a chameleon who will say anything, believe anything, to ingratiate and crawl closer to the big chair, is a pretty drastic one. So people reasonably wait until the evidence is really strong. And nobody likes to think they've been conned.

    It's not an original insight, but BoJo has trained himself to make a great first impression. Good political skill that one, and the only difference about Boris is how utterly brilliant he is at it. But he makes a terrible third impression.
    Good morning everybody.
    Re our colleague from Romford's last comment, I seem to recall several people here who have spent time with him, or met him more than once for for more than a quick greeting, are were not looking for advancement, said something very similar.

    'The more that he spoke of his honour, the faster we counted the spoons' or similar applied.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,907
    edited July 25
    The summer holiday impact on finding samples for polls was a product of the period when almost all surveys were carried out by contacting people's landlines. The only firm still doing them is Ipsos MORI and they now have a means of polling people's mobiles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    Actually, it's not quite fair to say Johnson is too stupid to realise. I think he and those around him DO realise the precarious position we're in which is why they are now issuing after-the-horse-has-bolted threats such as 'Jabs required for nightclubs' and 'you can only attend the Premier League if you've been jabbed.'

    The Government realise that the vaccination situation here is not going well and they're trying to bribe and coerce the remaining chunk to get jabbed.

    Not vaccinating under-18's is a significant problem.

    No government can vaccinate under 18s if Sage do not recommend it

    In view of your assertions can you provide Sage's official stance on this
    Not SAGE - who can only advise (and, let us not forget, have often given bad advice). It’s the JCVI.

    The government could overrule them but it would have to have a good reason to do so.

    I would say the time to vaccinate would be if they decided to withdraw the permission for unjabbed Under-18s to avoid isolating.

    Otherwise, given the timeframes and the opportunity cost of vaccines that could be redirected to those in more need I can see why they’re hesitant.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    edited July 25
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    You don't need to leave your home to have a break from politics.
    You do need to leave your home to be out when the pollsters call. ETA this was usually thought to hurt Conservative ratings as wealthier voters took longer holidays abroad.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    So, now we have a thread not just on sub-samples, but on changes in sub-samples. An incandescent ScreamingEagles will be telling us the Margin of Error in such calculations and spend the entire thread angrily slandering the author.

    Or maybe not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    ydoethur said:

    Actually, it's not quite fair to say Johnson is too stupid to realise. I think he and those around him DO realise the precarious position we're in which is why they are now issuing after-the-horse-has-bolted threats such as 'Jabs required for nightclubs' and 'you can only attend the Premier League if you've been jabbed.'

    The Government realise that the vaccination situation here is not going well and they're trying to bribe and coerce the remaining chunk to get jabbed.

    Not vaccinating under-18's is a significant problem.

    No government can vaccinate under 18s if Sage do not recommend it

    In view of your assertions can you provide Sage's official stance on this
    Not SAGE - who can only advise (and, let us not forget, have often given bad advice). It’s the JCVI.

    The government could overrule them but it would have to have a good reason to do so.

    I would say the time to vaccinate would be if they decided to withdraw the permission for unjabbed Under-18s to avoid isolating.

    Otherwise, given the timeframes and the opportunity cost of vaccines that could be redirected to those in more need I can see why they’re hesitant.
    Thank you for your clarification
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited July 25

    The summer holiday impact on finding samples for polls was a product of the period when almost all surveys were carried out by contacting people's landlines. The only firm still doing them is Ipsos MORI and they now have a means of polling people's mobiles.

    why bother? Mobiles don’t get a vote :smile:

    Before I’m banned for being cheeky, it was nice knowing you.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK.

    Is this the same WHO that criticised the UK plan to extend the gap between doses in whats turned out to be a "good idea"? If you're going to appeal to authority better check their credibility first.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’ve got nearly as many people with two doses (54%) as the EU (56%) and US (56.5%) have with one - and we’ve done that with a longer dosing gap that provides better long term protection.
    You're not great at comprehending trends, are you? :smiley:

    The EU is fast catching up. Countries such as Spain will be overtaking us soon.
    When do you expect the EU to overtake us?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    You don't need to leave your home to have a break from politics.
    You do need to leave your home to be out when the pollsters call. ETA this was usually thought to hurt Conservative ratings as wealthier voters took longer holidays abroad.
    We do not get any cold callers including pollsters in our neighbourhood watch area
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    edited July 25
    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start. It was always the case that other countries would catch up. Logically it couldn’t be any other way.


    Don't expect Crafty Cockney to look at things in the round. Leopards don't change their spots.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489



    Not vaccinating under-18's is a significant problem.

    For whom?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start. It was always the case that other countries would catch up. Logically it couldn’t be any other way.


    Don't expect Crafty Cockney to look at things in the round. Leopards don't change their spots.
    I can’t quite square having 68% vaccinated with 45% unvaccinated. By all means say 32%, but at least be accurate when wibbling away.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,999

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’ve got nearly as many people with two doses (54%) as the EU (56%) and US (56.5%) have with one - and we’ve done that with a longer dosing gap that provides better long term protection.
    You're not great at comprehending trends, are you? :smiley:

    The EU is fast catching up. Countries such as Spain will be overtaking us soon.
    Worth remembering that the EU average includes a huge split where the Iron Curtain was- for all sorts of reasons, that needs sorting.
    But it's not that long ago that suggesting that France, Germany et al would be as little as ten weeks behind the UK marked one out as either an insane optimist or an agent of Brussels or both. It has to be fair to say that the UK has underperformed on things like assertive outreach to the reluctant; our early success seems to have bred complacency.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,557
    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    Thinking about the way the thread is written , it would have been a far more interesting thread had it juxtaposed the voting intention figures v the slump in popularity.That is an interesting thing to discuss.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833
    And if he means 45% not double vaccinated then he should look at the protection offered against hospitalisation and death for just one shot, e.g. for AZ. Hint - it’s good...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,648
    The risk of an under 18 becoming seriously ill from Covid, even the delta variant, is infinitesimally small. The risk of them having a significant adverse reaction to the vaccine is similarly small but can you ethically justify giving them the vaccine in light of that risk and the miniscule reward (for them)? I think its a genuinely difficult question. There is an argument that under 18s will form a reservoir of the virus infecting those stupid enough not to be vaccinated and thus exposing them to harm but the prescribing doctor needs to be satisfied it is in the patients interests.

    I think that we will probably look to offer to vaccinate 16-18 year old's who are old enough to make an informed choice. My son had his first vaccine whilst still 17 so to some extent this is happening already. I doubt we will look to vaccinate those younger than that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631
    edited July 25
    The French Farce is working up the news, with suggestions that a significant number of Cabinet members don’t support the policy and that Shapps wasn’t even in the room when the decision was taken. It is also suggested that the vaccine resistance stats regarding the Beta variant weren’t properly understood, nor was that many of the cases in the French data are actually in its overseas territories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181
    edited July 25
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    That’s good news. If China’s puppets the WHO are opposed that suggests Johnson is for once making a good call.
    As I say above, it’s not the WHO. @Cocky_cockney often makes good points, but in this case he has confused the WHO with Cosplay SAGE and The Citizens.
    Bugger. That’s disappointing. Although truthfully, that lot being opposed is also a good sign.

    However, the key target should be those 11% of unvaxxed adults, plus getting second doses into the arms of the 20% or so who have had only one jab.

    Once that is done, and boosters if necessary, then it will be time to take stock of where to go next.

    I have to say, personally I probably would have vaccinated under 18s. But it was a marginal call. If they are abolishing the isolation requirement for under 18s, it becomes an even more marginal call.

    Arguably the best reason for doing it is that then jabs could be administered to Year 8s in school from hereafter if we did, which would be simpler and quicker than GP centres. But that does presuppose the vaccine effect lasts for decades, and we’re seeing signs it may not.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Opinium has the SNP and SLab recording the biggest falls in voting intention

    (+/- change from Opinium/Observer 8-9 July)

    SNP 50% (-7)
    SCon 33% (+5)
    SLab 7% (-2)
    SLD 4% (+2)
    SGP 2% (-1)
    oth 4% (+2)

    Anybody care to point out any flaws?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.
    For who?

    Under 18 year olds?

    Or the rest of us? Especially those not vaccinated.

    That’s what the JCVI is grappling with and I don’t envy them their task. Perhaps you can enlighten them?
    The US has been vaccinating the 12-17 range since early April, without obvious issues.

    The evidence is that it is both efficacious and safe.

    Now we've hit a demand wall from adults, we should open up the vaccine for children.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    A little perspective:


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 29,568
    IanB2 said:

    The French Farce is working up the news, with suggestions that a significant number of Cabinet members don’t support the policy and that Shapps wasn’t even in the room when the decision was taken. It is also suggested that the vaccine resistance stats regarding the Beta variant weren’t properly understood, nor was that many of the cases in the French data are actually in its overseas territories.

    Saj getting the blame, let's hope he's not cowering from these accusations. He can't say he wasn't already au fait with No10's shit spreading inclinations.



  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833
    rcs1000 said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
    I think he is saying one jab = unvaccinated. Obviously bollocks, but to some extent that has been the message in recent weeks with delta.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,181

    IanB2 said:

    The French Farce is working up the news, with suggestions that a significant number of Cabinet members don’t support the policy and that Shapps wasn’t even in the room when the decision was taken. It is also suggested that the vaccine resistance stats regarding the Beta variant weren’t properly understood, nor was that many of the cases in the French data are actually in its overseas territories.

    Saj getting the blame, let's hope he's not cowering from these accusations. He can't say he wasn't already au fait with No10's shit spreading inclinations.



    He won’t be too unhappy at the suggestion he has enormous influence over the PM.

    Rishi Sunak might be, of course.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.
    For who?

    Under 18 year olds?

    Or the rest of us? Especially those not vaccinated.

    That’s what the JCVI is grappling with and I don’t envy them their task. Perhaps you can enlighten them?
    The US has been vaccinating the 12-17 range since early April, without obvious issues.
    Not entirely:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    The polling was not taken "in the middle of the summer holiday season" unless you are referring to Etonians. State schools mostly broke up this Friday, after this polling was completed.

    The straw clutching by some pb tories tells me an awful lot about how precarious they really think their position is. If they wrote that they expected a mid-term slump at some point but believed Boris would nevertheless turn it around for the election then I'd pay more attention. The outright denial of plain facts is dissembling.
    When I was in.the Lake district in mid July, there were lots of kids about. They can't all be private school. For starters there were no exams AFAIK so school will have finished weeks previously to official tem end for lots of kids.
    Our schools broke up on Friday 16th July
    I think it's probably about 50/50 between the 16th and the 22nd/23rd.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,198
    edited July 25
    DavidL said:

    The risk of an under 18 becoming seriously ill from Covid, even the delta variant, is infinitesimally small. The risk of them having a significant adverse reaction to the vaccine is similarly small but can you ethically justify giving them the vaccine in light of that risk and the miniscule reward (for them)? I think its a genuinely difficult question. There is an argument that under 18s will form a reservoir of the virus infecting those stupid enough not to be vaccinated and thus exposing them to harm but the prescribing doctor needs to be satisfied it is in the patients interests.

    I think that we will probably look to offer to vaccinate 16-18 year old's who are old enough to make an informed choice. My son had his first vaccine whilst still 17 so to some extent this is happening already. I doubt we will look to vaccinate those younger than that.

    The ethics are not much different from any vaccination. There is a small risk to the person being vaccinated but we do it, even to young children, for the common good, that is to protect not themselves but others. In most cases they enjoy the benefits of herd immunity provided everyone else is vaccinated. The benefit is to the community including those more susceptible to harm from the disease (any disease) such as unvaccinated babies and infants, and granny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    We're not in a good shape on vaccinations though. We were, but we're not now. The number of jabs administered daily has slowed to a dribble and we're fast being overtaken by other countries.

    30% of British adults have not had both jabs and we know that under 18's can spread covid so the decision not to vaccinate them is crass.

    45% of British citizens are not vaccinated. We are a petri dish for mutations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=GBR

    We’re fast being overtaken in daily rates of vaccinations because we got off to such a flying start.
    Not vaccinating under-18's is an incredibly dangerous policy.
    For who?

    Under 18 year olds?

    Or the rest of us? Especially those not vaccinated.

    That’s what the JCVI is grappling with and I don’t envy them their task. Perhaps you can enlighten them?
    The US has been vaccinating the 12-17 range since early April, without obvious issues.
    Not entirely:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html
    Sure, but myocarditis is a common effect of exercising when you have a cold or any other infection. Basically, don't do strenuous exercise in the 48 hours following a covid jab, because it's just like having a cold.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,720
    DavidL said:

    The risk of an under 18 becoming seriously ill from Covid, even the delta variant, is infinitesimally small. The risk of them having a significant adverse reaction to the vaccine is similarly small but can you ethically justify giving them the vaccine in light of that risk and the miniscule reward (for them)? I think its a genuinely difficult question. There is an argument that under 18s will form a reservoir of the virus infecting those stupid enough not to be vaccinated and thus exposing them to harm but the prescribing doctor needs to be satisfied it is in the patients interests.

    I think that we will probably look to offer to vaccinate 16-18 year old's who are old enough to make an informed choice. My son had his first vaccine whilst still 17 so to some extent this is happening already. I doubt we will look to vaccinate those younger than that.

    It's not infinitesimally small. It's small, but not that small.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    Rather than looking at the changes, look at Opinium’s absolute Boris Johnson net approval ratings this month:

    London +9
    Midlands -7
    South -9
    North -19
    Wales -21
    N Ireland -23
    Scotland -44

    The “Minister for the Union” is doing a fine job… dividing the UK.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,601

    rcs1000 said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
    I think he is saying one jab = unvaccinated. Obviously bollocks, but to some extent that has been the message in recent weeks with delta.
    One shot is still good enough to stop delta causing hospitalisation and death innit.

    Why is Mr Cockney so sure of a vaccine “side stepping” variant? Has he not read about the relative immutability of SARS-COV2 and the molecular modelling indicating that the virus is headed down an evolutionary dead end? Or the fact that we’re about to launch the booster programme, probably unnecessarily, just in case?

    As others have said, WHO is a corrupted busted flush. One of the few good things Trump did was call attention to that.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447

    A little perspective:


    You will struggle to get any real sense of perspective on here at the moment..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,949
    Good morning, everyone.

    Ah, the WHO. Who ignored Taiwan's warnings, believed China's lies, criticised the UK's prolonged intervals (which turned out to be correct).

    The moves here may be wrong or right but the word of the WHO weighs more lightly than it should because they've harmed their own reputations by their previous actions and statements.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    Opinium has the SNP and SLab recording the biggest falls in voting intention

    (+/- change from Opinium/Observer 8-9 July)

    SNP 50% (-7)
    SCon 33% (+5)
    SLab 7% (-2)
    SLD 4% (+2)
    SGP 2% (-1)
    oth 4% (+2)

    Anybody care to point out any flaws?

    Sub-samples which are off message don't count?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    Not many voters incommunicado on Magaluf beaches this year.
    And Magaluf beaches have excellent 4G these days.

    By the way, I see speculation that Greece and Spain are heading for Amber Plus, thereby threatening nearly 6 million holidays.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/amber-plus-list-france-spain-greece-announcement-b1889926.html?amp
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631
    Cummings's critique is filtering through, despite almost everyone apparently having been vaccinated against the Cummings virus.

    Montgomerie was very critical on LBC yesterday, and also reporting anecdotally that everyone inside Number Ten is now worrying about the PM's failings. Westminster Hour on R4 yesterday had a review of the year and also contained criticism of the PM from Fraser Nelson, as well as all of the political commentators interviewed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447

    Rather than looking at the changes, look at Opinium’s absolute Boris Johnson net approval ratings this month:

    London +9
    Midlands -7
    South -9
    North -19
    Wales -21
    N Ireland -23
    Scotland -44

    The “Minister for the Union” is doing a fine job… dividing the UK.

    I would have thought a 7 pt drop.in popularity for The Nits would please Boris enormously especially With the Tories gaining ground.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631

    rcs1000 said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
    I think he is saying one jab = unvaccinated. Obviously bollocks, but to some extent that has been the message in recent weeks with delta.
    Odd given that we were the ones who stressed that the first dose gives the majority of the protection, as justification for our long-gap rollout.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    felix said:

    Opinium has the SNP and SLab recording the biggest falls in voting intention

    (+/- change from Opinium/Observer 8-9 July)

    SNP 50% (-7)
    SCon 33% (+5)
    SLab 7% (-2)
    SLD 4% (+2)
    SGP 2% (-1)
    oth 4% (+2)

    Anybody care to point out any flaws?

    Sub-samples which are off message don't count?
    Bingo!

    It’s a sign of age. Now that I’m entering the autumn years I forgot the first rule of PB Club: nasty nats are always wrong, even when they’re not.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    Rather than looking at the changes, look at Opinium’s absolute Boris Johnson net approval ratings this month:

    London +9
    Midlands -7
    South -9
    North -19
    Wales -21
    N Ireland -23
    Scotland -44

    The “Minister for the Union” is doing a fine job… dividing the UK.

    Looks like London is seriously off message. :smiley: Just what you'd expect from a reliable set os sub-samples..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    edited July 25
    Crown Office in Scotland fit for purpose?

    Buried amongst the words regarding the missing £600k and the investigation into its whereabouts, are some reports that should concern every single person that wants a fair and just legal system in Scotland

    https://twitter.com/Iain_L/status/1419180210407280643?s=20

    Police and Prosecutors accused of criminality in Rangers case

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1419033731663282177?s=20
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,833
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    And I'd remind the pb tory crowing cheerleaders that the World Health Organisation have issued a stark warning about what's happening in the UK. The point here is that because we have 45% of the population unvaccinated and YET are fully unlocking we are creating the perfect conditions for this virus to mutate and side-step vaccines. The UK is a threat to the world. That's not me, that's WHO.

    We're making a huge mistake that could have global consequences. Johnson is too stupid and too idle to realise this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

    45% of the population unvaccinated?
    I think he is saying one jab = unvaccinated. Obviously bollocks, but to some extent that has been the message in recent weeks with delta.
    Odd given that we were the ones who stressed that the first dose gives the majority of the protection, as justification for our long-gap rollout.
    There is evidence that best protection for delta relies on two doses. Doesn’t mean one dose is useless, far from it, but hence the emphasis on getting 2nd jabs done in 8 weeks, rather than 12. I think without delta we’d have seen cases collapse and stuck at 12 week dosing. Deltas infectiousnous has been that blip in the road that you fear but hope doesn’t happen as we come out of this.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    A little perspective:


    You will struggle to get any real sense of perspective on here at the moment..
    Indeed - yesterday was truly groundhog day with the announcement that the vaccine bounce was over....again...and...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,631
    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    felix said:

    A little perspective:


    You will struggle to get any real sense of perspective on here at the moment..
    Indeed - yesterday was truly groundhog day with the announcement that the vaccine bounce was over....again...and...
    It won't be long before there is a "Demon eyes" campaign against Boris... you heard it here first 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    Also we are in the middle of the summer holiday season when polls are not always very reliable. Not to mention the 8 point no change polling lead for the Tories from Opinium. Oops I just did, :smiley:

    The polling was not taken "in the middle of the summer holiday season" unless you are referring to Etonians. State schools mostly broke up this Friday, after this polling was completed.

    The straw clutching by some pb tories tells me an awful lot about how precarious they really think their position is. If they wrote that they expected a mid-term slump at some point but believed Boris would nevertheless turn it around for the election then I'd pay more attention. The outright denial of plain facts is dissembling.
    When I was in.the Lake district in mid July, there were lots of kids about. They can't all be private school. For starters there were no exams AFAIK so school will have finished weeks previously to official tem end for lots of kids.
    Our schools broke up on Friday 16th July
    I think it's probably about 50/50 between the 16th and the 22nd/23rd.
    Maybe because ours are in Wales ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,423

    Crown Office in Scotland fit for purpose?

    Buried amongst the words regarding the missing £600k and the investigation into its whereabouts, are some reports that should concern every single person that wants a fair and just legal system in Scotland

    https://twitter.com/Iain_L/status/1419180210407280643?s=20

    Police and Prosecutors accused of criminality in Rangers case

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1419033731663282177?s=20

    All political careers end in failure, or so 'tis said.

    Is it St Nicola's turn?

    I'll be sad if she does crash and burn; I always thought she was grossly maligned in some quarters for things she was doing well.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    IanB2 said:

    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.

    And that was the main point about my earlier post
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,471
    Talk about overuse of VAR in football look at the taekwando now! Come on GB!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489

    Crown Office in Scotland fit for purpose?

    Buried amongst the words regarding the missing £600k and the investigation into its whereabouts, are some reports that should concern every single person that wants a fair and just legal system in Scotland

    https://twitter.com/Iain_L/status/1419180210407280643?s=20

    Police and Prosecutors accused of criminality in Rangers case

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1419033731663282177?s=20

    All political careers end in failure, or so 'tis said.

    Is it St Nicola's turn?

    I'll be sad if she does crash and burn; I always thought she was grossly maligned in some quarters for things she was doing well.
    She is without a doubt certainly one of the if not the most skilful politicians in the UK today. But persuasive and empathetic communication cannot indefinitely substitute for substance and policy, and Mr Gravity is bound to come calling sooner or later. If it turns out to be Mr Plod, that will be quite a turn up for the books.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,741
    edited July 25

    A little perspective:


    What is the new perspective? I see a figure which is worse than Trump's before he was hammered at the US election and stands at a rather dismal -13.

    PS. Well done taking over the Sunday morning shift from Philip. It's about time they employed a female

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 44,967
    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hodges:

    It shouldn't need an adviser to tell the Prime Minister he can't tell his people to isolate when pinged, then try to dodge isolation himself.

    It shouldn't need an expert to explain there is a case to be made for Covid passports and a case to be made against Covid passports but no case for jumping frantically between the two.

    No committee of officials should be required to get him to see what every man, woman and child in the country can see: that unless people are released from their pingdemic prison, the nation's businesses and services will grind to a halt.

    These are the basics. And the PM cannot subcontract them.

    And that was the main point about my earlier post
    Boris starts to look like the tragic figure as old as time, who receives the punishment of getting exactly what he asked for. In his case, being in charge.
    Boris wants to be liked but power brings responsibility and decision making that are not compatible with his desire to be liked
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    Thought provoking piece on the Spectator(s):

    https://www.geoffmulgan.com/post/spectators-v-doers-the-challenge-for-the-uk-s-ruling-clique

    While it may overstate it's case, certainly food for thought.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,209
    I see the Tories want to publish the telephone numbers and email addresses of policemen and women.

    Reming me, how do the police usually vote?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,489
    Roger said:

    A little perspective:


    I see a figure which is worse than Trump's before he was hammered at the US election and stands at a rather dismal -13.
    Starmer is Biden? Huge if true.....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,447
    Roger said:

    A little perspective:


    What is the new perspective? I see a figure which is worse than Trump's before he was hammered at the US election and stands at a rather dismal -13.

    PS. Well done taking over the Sunday morning shift from Philip. It's about time they employed a female

    I don't think Boris is going to.encourage his supporters to storm Parliament and trash it.

    Rogerdamus.. never right, talks shite.
This discussion has been closed.