I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
That would make sense. I'm waiting for the replay to become available to hear what he said for myself.
I just rewatched on sky news youtube and he definitely says 60%.
Lets hope he just misspoke.
Of course the media haven't pulled him up on it and said are you sure....
It's not any easy number to interpret, though. If the population at risk of hospitalisation are 95%+ double-jabbed (which, roughly speaking, they are), then you'd expect many or most of those now being hospitalised to be double-jabbed.
What we really want to know is what the number is, compared with the number which would have been expected if they were unjabbed. It's very hard to tease this out of the UK figures.
Its the jump that is concerning. Until a week or so ago, 10-15% of cases were fully vaccinated and about same with hospitizations.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
Just over 2/3 of adults in the UK are double vaxxed at the moment. If they are making up 60% of those who are hospitalised then the efficacy of vaccines is significantly less than we thought. 16% is really the top end of what ought to be possible on what we have been told the efficacy of vaccination is. If 2/3 of the population are producing 60% of the cases in hospital then in round terms vaccines don't work.
I think Max's frustration is not really rightly aimed at the member of SAGE and whether they do go running off to the media as soon as they dissent. I think the issue is the media, and their constant need for a story. What better story is there than 'Member of SAGE predicts 100,000 cases' etc. I've always objected to Prince Charles opining on climate science because he is a dimwit, and has not earned a seat at the table.
Broadly speaking, sure, I agree. A lot of media behaviour is terrible. There is a lot of scaremongering. There is a lot of setting up false dichotomies and adversarial positions. I have been in the media a little bit during the pandemic and it's often not left me feeling particularly positive about the media!
(There are exceptions to that. I think the very public airing of the science has made the science better. I think the media are taking science and health journalism a lot more seriously!)
But I'd rather this media than some police state where we can't say anything. I am a liberal and I hold freedoms dear. The freedom of scientists to bitch about govt actions, even those scientists on unpaid advisory committees for the govt, is part of that package of freedoms.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
We're arriving at a crucial juncture on this issue, as with others. If we can get over the worst of the pandemic without sliding back into more cycles of lockdown then there'll be no great clamour to mandate vaccinations. But if the Autumn goes badly, all bets are off.
Under such circumstances one can easily imagine the Government trying to introduce vaxports to as many venues as possible, in order to make the lives of the refusers as difficult as possible.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
Sounds like the battle for Epping Parish Council is hotting up
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
Just over 2/3 of adults in the UK are double vaxxed at the moment. If they are making up 60% of those who are hospitalised then the efficacy of vaccines is significantly less than we thought. 16% is really the top end of what ought to be possible on what we have been told the efficacy of vaccination is. If 2/3 of the population are producing 60% of the cases in hospital then in round terms vaccines don't work.
No because the most at risk have been double jabbed and the least at risk have not been jabbed. Vaccines work and work significantly as shown by the reduction across the whole population.
I wonder what its like when SeanT gets banned and has to regenerate.
Is it like Doctor Who - a burst of energy then a new face/username? Is it like Captain Jack when he actually lies there unbreathing for a few minutes until coming back with a big gasp? Is it like one of the Cylons where they awake on the resurrection ship?
What was he banned for this time? I think I will miss his brand of stupidity. Yes he is an idiot, often expressing obnoxious views, but it is fun needling him. He did mange to be reasonably restrained when I suggested SeanT's books were the poor man's Dan Brown lol.
He was one of the half dozen most intelligent posters on the site. You, to put it mildly, are not.
Oh, so you think you are lol! You are the most arrogant plonkers on this site, with nothing to be arrogant about. You are the only nob on here to have made much of your Oxford PhD., which is probably even less believable than one of SeanT's plotlines, particularly as when you quoted it you got the form wrong. What are you going to do next, do a Trump and claim you have "the highest" IQ lol?
I have interviewed and employed lots of genuine Oxbridge PhD's and some of them are wankers like yourself, so I guess it is possible. On the other hand, more likely that you are a Walter Mitty.
SeanT was fun, and lots of people, even those of us with a very different view thought so. If people see your profile they generally think just think "obnoxious contrarian wanker" .
It wasn't an Oxford PhD. There is no such thing as an Oxford PhD. The post was merely a gag anyway. You have not interviewed lots of Oxford PhDs because there aren't any. You cannot put finger to keyboard without embarrassing yourself and boring everybody else. Why are you even here?
I see that my outing you as a Walter Mitty was correct. My bullshitometer always goes to max each time I see any of your posts that no-one else wants to read.
How did you put it, btw? Dr. Ishmael Z Oxon PhD. (sic)? 😂😂😂😂 I bet you haven't even got an 'ology! "The post was merely a gag anyway 😂😂😂😂
Seriously though, I think you maybe are suffering from a severe case of another malaise: psychological projection, where you accuse others of issues that trouble yourself. Boring people is clearly a major issue for yourself, I don't imagine anyone goes "hey, IshmaelZ's post I must read that, it'll be really informative or funny!". I know I should feel sorry for you really, and I know that I really should, as a nice well brought up boy, be nice to twats, but I have to make an exception for you. Keep taking the tablets Walter. Love and kisses xxxx
£10,000 at evens that I have a PhD from an English university. Happy to put the money in escrow with rcs1000 if you think I'm not good for it
Your choices now: Take the bet Retract and apologise for the slur Say nothing and tacitly admit to a chronic and incurable case of micropenis syndrome
Watcha gonna do?
You really aren't very bright.
You are a really very unpleasant person. You have a lot of issues and I see you are also worried about your penis size. Not a PhD from an Oxford college then? That was "a gag". 😂. Classic Walter Mitty stuff. Pretending to be what you wish you were. We should all feel sorry for you.
I am sure you have probably seen my previous posts, Walter, where I have said I don't bet, I come on here for the politics. I don't need to bet with you, but I feel a little guilty that I am amused I obviously got under your skin.
I have no problem with my level of intelligence, but based upon your posts I guess both my IQ, and definitely my EQ are considerably higher than yours and my level of material success off the scale compared to an angry little saddo such as yourself. I have no need to prove any of it, unlike yourself. Your desire to boast and prove yourself demonstrates your immaturity and general underachievement.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
So you start funding a new political party and you give it £1bn.
How do you fix the immediate problem that this Government is in power until 2023 at the earliest and is going to insist on proof of vaccination before you can do XYZ.
I see that those of us expecting yet another example of Boris dithering and avoiding making a sensible choice until it's too late and the damage has already been done, and then being forced into a half-baked U-turn, are not being disappointed by today's new announcements.
Still, two half-baked U-turns in five minutes is a bonus.
I really am getting confused. What's he done now?
1. Vaccine passports for young'uns wanting to go into nightclubs, with no opportunity of a test as an alternative. But not until end Sept (!!!)
2. Double jabbed plus two weeks 'critical workers' to no longer have to isolate, effective immediately.
Both are U-turns. Both are too late. Both are half-baked. Neither makes much sense because they are so half-baked.
Presumably 1 is just a ruse to encourage people to get vaccinated but will never actually happen.
Indeed, 30 Sep is the end of the summer (actually astronomical Autumn!) and is psychologically an eternity away when the schools are still in.
A massive nudge to get young guns to get their jabs: many won’t be arsed or won’t turn up (late out, forgot, got a better offer). So this is just to incentivise it IMO.
Though if we are going to continue to insist on the 8 week gap, having the second jab by the end of September means doing the first in the next 3 weeks or so, which might be pushing it. And whilst a proportion of da yoot frequent nightclubs, it's a minority, surely?
And the big question is still- if this is a good idea then, why isn't it a good idea now? Except that nobody thought about it 8 weeks ago, when it might have been useful?
Because its summer.
All the concern seems to be about the winter when there's going to be the flu season etc too - so having the virus burnout now, and having it not spread in the winter, is for the best.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
Sounds like the battle for Epping Parish Council is hotting up
Like the Civil War, as summarised in Blackadder:
Fathers fought sons, brothers shouted insults at brothers, and grandmother hurled small lavender bag at grandmother.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
So you start funding a new political party and you give it £1bn.
How do you fix the immediate problem that this Government is in power until 2023 at the earliest and is going to insist on proof of vaccination before you can do XYZ.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
It's just a threat to encourage young people to hit the needle. There's no serious practical prospect of vaxports for nightclubs and the like. That's my take.
My take was the opposite. If this is over, why such clear planning for next winter?
Boris said he doesn’t want to see vaxpass needed to walk up to a bar and buy a beer. Pointedly didn’t rule it out though did he.
The other thing that clearly came across, JVT happy for the nightclub super spreader events to be happening, Vallance against it, very frosty between them all the way through the media conference did you notice?
I think Max's frustration is not really rightly aimed at the member of SAGE and whether they do go running off to the media as soon as they dissent. I think the issue is the media, and their constant need for a story. What better story is there than 'Member of SAGE predicts 100,000 cases' etc. I've always objected to Prince Charles opining on climate science because he is a dimwit, and has not earned a seat at the table.
Broadly speaking, sure, I agree. A lot of media behaviour is terrible. There is a lot of scaremongering. There is a lot of setting up false dichotomies and adversarial positions. I have been in the media a little bit during the pandemic and it's often not left me feeling particularly positive about the media!
(There are exceptions to that. I think the very public airing of the science has made the science better. I think the media are taking science and health journalism a lot more seriously!)
But I'd rather this media than some police state where we can't say anything. I am a liberal and I hold freedoms dear. The freedom of scientists to bitch about govt actions, even those scientists on unpaid advisory committees for the govt, is part of that package of freedoms.
Quit the advisory body and say whatever you want.
Even if on an advisory body it might be acceptable to say certain things other than just what the body says, but I don't think it all unreasonable that you have to be much much more careful about doing so considering the potential impacts of undermining the official position. That's the price of being on it, people are not forced to be on such things.
A question I do not understand the answer to is why is a negative test will not be accepted but two jabs is? We are surely far less likely to be infected by a negative testee than a double jabber.
Is it:
1 To "force" the young to take the vaccine? 2 That LFT test results can easily and deliberately be misreported by the user? 3 Some other reason?
A combination of 1 and 2, I'd say. Though if push comes to shove I'd say the ability of users to falsely report LFT results at will is the most important factor.
Don't know whether it's a data issue, but cases reported do look better than expected.
Vastly better than expected.
rcs might have only been off by a day!
Well, we'll see. I must admit that I hadn't quite expected the rush of people back into nightclubs.
I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that we will need to be go to fairly serious lengths to ensure that people get jabbed. That's the only way to minimise transmission. That means that we need to get secondary school pupils vaccinated asap - and in the same way that they get their BCG vaccinations already. Line up, here it comes.
The stick is long overdue. If the carrot of not dying (or not killing granny) does not persuade people to get jabbed then we need to start making more and more things people like dependent on getting vaccinated.
I do want to hear what you want to say. In SAGE minutes. Your dissent can be recorded there for all time. I don't want to hear it on Channel 4 at 7pm because they think it will take 1% off the government's poll rating or on twitter because the scienctist wants all of the retweets.
I'm reading PB.com comments, so I must want to hear what you want to say too.
Let me tell you some things I don't want to hear. I don't want to hear Katie Hopkins talking on Twitter about flashing hotel staff while she's in quarantine. I don't want to hear Nigel Farage on GB News. But we live in a free country and so they get to talk and I get to choose whether to listen. This is the bit you seem to struggle with. Freedom means Channel 4 News can say stuff and GB News can say stuff and people can tweet.
I do not believe it is destructive to society if I say something that gets recorded in a SAGE sub-committee meeting and then I say the same thing to the media. I really don't see how your world would work. The media could read bits of SAGE minutes out, using an actor to provide a voiceover, like with Gerry Adams in 1988-94. Is that what you want?
Government decision making has reasons to be confidential. Inputs to Government decision making should be open.
I have, I'm sure, missed many other interesting parts of this discussion, but my hand hurts now, so I will go cook supper.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
That's really confusingly worded. Reads a bit like a riddle.
If i am reading this correctly, that still doesn't tell you what proportion are over / under 50. So 43% of over 50 admissions are fully vaccinated, but what proportion of over 50s make up the 750 daily admissions? Or is the 43% of the total of all admissions? Because you can reas it as 34% unvaxxed, 43% fully vaxxed, 100-34-43 are the single dose...
I think everyone calling this a peak is being extremely premature. We've just thrown open the doors to nightclubs and unlimited internal socialising. I think we're going to see cases a over 100k per day by mid-August but not many resulting hospitalisations as they will be concentrated among under 30s.
Indeed. A fair way off the peak IMO. Today's numbers are almost certainly just noise.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
Just over 2/3 of adults in the UK are double vaxxed at the moment. If they are making up 60% of those who are hospitalised then the efficacy of vaccines is significantly less than we thought. 16% is really the top end of what ought to be possible on what we have been told the efficacy of vaccination is. If 2/3 of the population are producing 60% of the cases in hospital then in round terms vaccines don't work.
No because the most at risk have been double jabbed and the least at risk have not been jabbed. Vaccines work and work significantly as shown by the reduction across the whole population.
I am taking that into account (I think). If the efficacy of vaccines was 95% then that 2/3 should produce no more than 3.75% of cases overall but the fact that the double vaxxed is weighted to the elderly and the vulnerable means that it is not the average likelihood but the likelihood for those weighted classes. For 65-74 year olds your likelihood of hospitalisation is 6x the norm so if all the double vaxxed were in that category then you might expect them to be be 3.75% x 6 = 22.5%. Of course by no means all of those double vaxxed are in that category now so 16% is pretty close to the absolute limit if the 95% is correct.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
"We project that roughly half of the hospitalisations and deaths occurring in the summer 2021 are likely to be in vaccinated individuals, depending upon vaccine coverage (Fig. 14). Admissions are projected to be split relatively evenly between the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ year age groups, while deaths are likely to be concentrated in the 75+ age group (Fig. 15). • These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. It is not possible to accurately predict how mobility and contacts will change following the easing of restrictions. We have presented our results in terms of low, medium and high assumptions for mobility, in addition to considering relaxations in the protective measures individuals employ, and these make a considerable difference to the results. • Furthermore, there remains enormous uncertainty in the characteristics of the Delta B.1.617.2 variant (in terms of immune escape and transmissibility) and the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing infection and serious disease. A range of scenarios is presented to cover these different possibilities. "
You're right, I guess it's a function of the vaccinated cohort. Though having scanned that paper (which looks quite good), 60% at this stage is a little higher than I'm comfortable with. I need to ponder the results of that paper a little more: it certainly shows that waning immunity would be very bad news.
I fear that the 60% number will be reported irresponsibly.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
Just over 2/3 of adults in the UK are double vaxxed at the moment. If they are making up 60% of those who are hospitalised then the efficacy of vaccines is significantly less than we thought. 16% is really the top end of what ought to be possible on what we have been told the efficacy of vaccination is. If 2/3 of the population are producing 60% of the cases in hospital then in round terms vaccines don't work.
Yes. So we have the wrong end of the stick here - hopefully and very probably.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
It would have been much quicker and more severe without lockdowns, followed by vaccines.
This is obvious to anyone of average or above average intelligence looking objectively at how things were moving in both April 2020 and January this year. Indeed, arguably moving too slowly made it much more severe than it need to have been, but I doubt if those are the ‘catastrophic policy decisions’ you refer to.
I think you are of roughly average intelligence. But you are clearly not looking at the issue objectively. You want the world to be a certain way, therefore it must be so. Any facts that contradict it must be wrong.
Well, it’s a free country and you’re entitled to that view. Just as the rest of us are entitled to be exasperated that the most aggressive anti-lockdown campaigner is making it more difficult to end lockdown.
As they say in Chicago, don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
From the daily (and rather good) email from Stephen Bush of the Staggers:
"There's an important “but” here, too, which is that amid all the talk of a “pingdemic”, it's easy to forget that the constant threat of being asked to self-isolate by the NHS app isn't a glitch in the system or some strange oversight. It's a feature, not a bug, of England unlocking, and this, coupled with the faster-spreading Delta variant, means a new wave of coronavirus cases. Complaining about a pingdemic is a bit like complaining that your fire alarm has gone off because you've burnt something on the hob: yes, it's a pain, but the problem isn't the fire alarm."
I actually think it is highly likely that the “pingdemic” is actually more linked to the football than increases in cases per se. Because what the football did was cause a massive (largely temporary) increase in the number of people to be in the sort of static longish term contact positions where the app might identify them as needing to self-isolate. Many of the people pinged (being double vaxxed) were quite possibly not at high probability of being infected by their close contacts but they were still pinged.
In more normal times, most people experience fewer random close contacts and they are mostly restricted to smallish regular groups. If those groups contain people who, for whatever reason (job, general approach to precaution taking etc) are more likely to contract Covid they (as a group) may be more likely to have already had it so in normal times the pingdemic would not have happened to the same extent, even with rising cases as they are.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
"We project that roughly half of the hospitalisations and deaths occurring in the summer 2021 are likely to be in vaccinated individuals, depending upon vaccine coverage (Fig. 14). Admissions are projected to be split relatively evenly between the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ year age groups, while deaths are likely to be concentrated in the 75+ age group (Fig. 15). • These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. It is not possible to accurately predict how mobility and contacts will change following the easing of restrictions. We have presented our results in terms of low, medium and high assumptions for mobility, in addition to considering relaxations in the protective measures individuals employ, and these make a considerable difference to the results. • Furthermore, there remains enormous uncertainty in the characteristics of the Delta B.1.617.2 variant (in terms of immune escape and transmissibility) and the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing infection and serious disease. A range of scenarios is presented to cover these different possibilities. "
You're right, I guess it's a function of the vaccinated cohort. Though having scanned that paper (which looks quite good), 60% at this stage is a little higher than I'm comfortable with. I need to ponder the results of that paper a little more: it certainly shows that waning immunity would be very bad news.
I fear that the 60% number will be reported irresponsibly.
--AS
Everything is reported irresponsibly! Which is why this site is so useful, even if it descends into idiocy on rare and brief occasions. Your posts are very much welcomed and appreciated.
Don't know whether it's a data issue, but cases reported do look better than expected.
Vastly better than expected.
rcs might have only been off by a day!
Well, we'll see. I must admit that I hadn't quite expected the rush of people back into nightclubs.
I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that we will need to be go to fairly serious lengths to ensure that people get jabbed. That's the only way to minimise transmission. That means that we need to get secondary school pupils vaccinated asap - and in the same way that they get their BCG vaccinations already. Line up, here it comes.
The stick is long overdue. If the carrot of not dying (or not killing granny) does not persuade people to get jabbed then we need to start making more and more things people like dependent on getting vaccinated.
It's also worth pointing out at this juncture that the British people have shown a tremendous appetite for authoritarian measures, especially when (a) they are frightened and (b) such measures are likely to impinge more significantly on the lives of others than on their own.
Put crudely, vaccine passports are liable to be used on the doors of venues like bars and nightclubs that are not frequently visited by octogenarians, but supermarkets (let alone GP surgeries) will be blissfully exempt.
Be prepared for enormous amounts of howling about structural racism if vaxports come to pass though, bearing in mind that some demographics have a stronger tendency to dig their heels in over getting jabbed than others.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
That would make sense. I'm waiting for the replay to become available to hear what he said for myself.
I just rewatched on sky news youtube and he definitely says 60%.
Lets hope he just misspoke.
Of course the media haven't pulled him up on it and said are you sure....
It's not any easy number to interpret, though. If the population at risk of hospitalisation are 95%+ double-jabbed (which, roughly speaking, they are), then you'd expect many or most of those now being hospitalised to be double-jabbed.
What we really want to know is what the number is, compared with the number which would have been expected if they were unjabbed. It's very hard to tease this out of the UK figures.
I thought we heard recently that the majority of hospital admissions were in the under-45s - which would fit with the majority of hospital admissions being in the unvaccinated population. A sudden switch to 60% of admissions being double-dosed oldies doesn't make much sense at first glance.
If we had this figure in the standard stats on the dashboard then we wouldn't be worrying over someone's pronunciation.
If a population is 95% double-dosed and the vaccine is 90% effective against hospitalisation, then you'd expect close to a 2:1 ratio of admissions to be from the double-dosed. So maybe it is 60%, and it reflects that most of the youngsters have some protection now too?
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
A similar proposal seems to have worked in France to encourage people to get jabbed, it's quite possible that we have simply seen what France has done and thought "we should try that".
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
Sounds like the battle for Epping Parish Council is hotting up
Like the Civil War, as summarised in Blackadder:
Fathers fought sons, brothers shouted insults at brothers, and grandmother hurled small lavender bag at grandmother.
“Don’t call us roundheaded authoritarians scum you cavalier libertarian scum.”
The cheek of scummy libertarian Contrarian calling us authoritarians scum! Let you know contrarian, it’s authoritarians like us, through our civic and moral duty, that saves the country from cavaliers like you just destroying it!
It’s not like the sting in the tail of freedom day is the day freedom died.
I am increasing suspecting that the latest data is showing lower vaccine efficiency hence the nightclub rules and you just can't get away with having an infected unvaccinated person in a big crowd without infecting a reason number of even vaccinated people.
It's rampant in my village and it seemingly makes no difference whether or not you are double jabbed, although the latter have a significantly lesser illness. That said, Sir Patrick Vallance said before that 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated.
Did he say that, I missed that.... are you sure he said fully vaccinated rather than partially vaccinated? Because that's a massive shift, a week or so ago, we were looking at more like 85-90% were not fully vaccinated, same with cases.
That's really bad news. We aren't talking about refuseniks filling up beds.
That seem out of whack with the information.last week, zoe app and what Dr Foxy said yesterday.
I thought he said 16% not 60%. 16% matches up with the 12% from earlier last month and the 15% figure we got a few days ago.
Just over 2/3 of adults in the UK are double vaxxed at the moment. If they are making up 60% of those who are hospitalised then the efficacy of vaccines is significantly less than we thought. 16% is really the top end of what ought to be possible on what we have been told the efficacy of vaccination is. If 2/3 of the population are producing 60% of the cases in hospital then in round terms vaccines don't work.
Yes. So we have the wrong end of the stick here - hopefully and very probably.
@Richard_Nabavi has, thankfully, just produced the right end of the stick upthread.
PB Panic Syndrome makes me want to avoid the site – which I don't want to do because so much of the discourse on here is great.
Don't know whether it's a data issue, but cases reported do look better than expected.
Vastly better than expected.
rcs might have only been off by a day!
Well, we'll see. I must admit that I hadn't quite expected the rush of people back into nightclubs.
I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that we will need to be go to fairly serious lengths to ensure that people get jabbed. That's the only way to minimise transmission. That means that we need to get secondary school pupils vaccinated asap - and in the same way that they get their BCG vaccinations already. Line up, here it comes.
The stick is long overdue. If the carrot of not dying (or not killing granny) does not persuade people to get jabbed then we need to start making more and more things people like dependent on getting vaccinated.
It's also worth pointing out at this juncture that the British people have shown a tremendous appetite for authoritarian measures, especially when (a) they are frightened and (b) such measures are likely to impinge more significantly on the lives of others than on their own.
Put crudely, vaccine passports are liable to be used on the doors of venues like bars and nightclubs that are not frequently visited by octogenarians, but supermarkets (let alone GP surgeries) will be blissfully exempt.
Be prepared for enormous amounts of howling about structural racism if vaxports come to pass though, bearing in mind that some demographics have a stronger tendency to dig their heels in over getting jabbed than others.
Not been a frequenter of nightclubs recently, but my recollection is that for example, Muslims tend to be somewhat underrepresented in them.
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
A similar proposal seems to have worked in France to encourage people to get jabbed, it's quite possible that we have simply seen what France has done and thought "we should try that".
So not everything from France is on the amber plus some red list.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
Accoding to Met Office Radar, a band of heavy storms heading east to west across the South Downs (Sussex). LOTS of lightning, according to the lightning monitor.
Labour is too firmly committed to the metropolitan professional agenda of Never-Open: a mix of happy remote-workers and remote-"workers", plus understandably stressed NHS staff who wish Covid would just be gone. Like Remain, it will guarantee a core of angry support. Like Remain, it does not comprise a majority.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
Bloke who doesn't go to clubs calls for closure of clubs.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
Bloke who doesn't go to clubs calls for closure of clubs.
That's an excellent post from them, they've been really good through the whole crisis, their implied R is calculated almost identically to my formula too.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
Bloke who doesn't go to clubs calls for closure of clubs.
(popes shit in woods)
Quite right. And perhaps bloke that never worked it out anyway. Do tell me though that you are the man that Andrew Neil wishes to be.
That's an excellent post from them, they've been really good through the whole crisis, their implied R is calculated almost identically to my formula too.
We just need to know under 50 / over 50 split of the total now...althougg those figures are from nearly a month ago.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
Is he complaining about vaxports or getting vaccinations though? Vaxports can fuck off frankly I would rather keep my money in my pocket than use one and they need push back against them. I see no reason not to take a voluntary vaccination though and quite happy to be double jabbed.
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I don't think this is a foregone conclusion, fortunately. Two points:
(a) People who are more likely to wet over these sorts of settings (and, if they dare go out at all, would rather have their own table with about twenty feet of empty space around them in all directions,) are liable to skew heavily towards the aged end of the spectrum, who aren't going to be the key demographic for most hostelries
(b) People are also going to be listening a bit less to the experts and making their own judgements from now on, I think. If my trip to the supermarket earlier is anything to go by, for example, the relaxation of the face mask rules in shops has been entirely ignored. OTOH, people who were otherwise inclined to go out and do things they enjoy before today aren't liable to be put off by the good professor and his three C's in any significant numbers.
Labour is too firmly committed to the metropolitan professional agenda of Never-Open: a mix of happy remote-workers and remote-"workers", plus understandably stressed NHS staff who wish Covid would just be gone. Like Remain, it will guarantee a core of angry support. Like Remain, it does not comprise a majority.
I'm sorry - I don't understand most of this.
What is a "metropolitan professional agenda of never open" meant to mean? People who work at home don't want things to stay shut - they want to enjoy life, just not the tedious, stressful, uncomfortable, expensive commute whether by car, rail, bus or whatever.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
Given 64% of Tory voters and 58% of voters overall back Covid vaccine passports good luck with that!
Accoding to Met Office Radar, a band of heavy storms heading east to west across the South Downs (Sussex). LOTS of lightning, according to the lightning monitor.
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
We're sixteen months into this shit and the vaccines are pretty much rolled out now. We need to find a way to live with this.
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
Labour is too firmly committed to the metropolitan professional agenda of Never-Open: a mix of happy remote-workers and remote-"workers", plus understandably stressed NHS staff who wish Covid would just be gone. Like Remain, it will guarantee a core of angry support. Like Remain, it does not comprise a majority.
I'm sorry - I don't understand most of this.
What is a "metropolitan professional agenda of never open" meant to mean? People who work at home don't want things to stay shut - they want to enjoy life, just not the tedious, stressful, uncomfortable, expensive commute whether by car, rail, bus or whatever.
Those days are gone, now, as someone once said.
Their bosses will bring them back in, Whitehall bosses for sure and also a lot of old-fashioned managers (the UK is not short of those).
I am sure I read something the other day about Delta having really high viral shedding (something like x1000 times more in the early stage compared to other variants. If that's the case then chances are a high viral load is going to successfully infect someone who is even double vaccinated.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
To be so confident of inevitable economic collapse at least a government with liquidity issues, what indicators are you monitoring?
I don’t disagree with you that the shock to the economic system of not just shut downs, the expense added to borrowing of the lockdown, but also the reevaluation of work and life makes the economic situation a sort of elephant in the room - there’s post after post on this blog about restrictions and freedoms, but the bigger question is what happens to the economy in the coming years. It needs growth, production. A service economy needs customers, it doesn’t need slack or erratic growth or continued inflation.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
Bloke who doesn't go to clubs calls for closure of clubs.
(popes shit in woods)
It's worse than that, it's bloke who went and had a good time in them in his day saying close them for other people now that his time is passed.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
It's just a threat to encourage young people to hit the needle. There's no serious practical prospect of vaxports for nightclubs and the like. That's my take.
My take was the opposite. If this is over, why such clear planning for next winter?
Boris said he doesn’t want to see vaxpass needed to walk up to a bar and buy a beer. Pointedly didn’t rule it out though did he.
The other thing that clearly came across, JVT happy for the nightclub super spreader events to be happening, Vallance against it, very frosty between them all the way through the media conference did you notice?
I didn't watch but I can believe it. Apparently there is no strong consensus across the big players.
But ok I feel a bet coming on. It's the USP of the site after all.
I say by end 2021 there will NOT be vaxports for nightclubs in England.
Even money, charity or site funds, I will accommodate all comers up to £25 each.
Accoding to Met Office Radar, a band of heavy storms heading east to west across the South Downs (Sussex). LOTS of lightning, according to the lightning monitor.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
I'm going clubbing in Durham at the weekend. I'll report back.
We're sixteen months into this shit and the vaccines are pretty much rolled out now. We need to find a way to live with this.
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
Broadly speaking, yes, I agree - not something I do very often but there you go...
Accoding to Met Office Radar, a band of heavy storms heading east to west across the South Downs (Sussex). LOTS of lightning, according to the lightning monitor.
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
Even at 60% it's comparing a cohort of 16m partially or unvaccinated people to 37m fully vaccinated people with age risk being majority in the latter group. A double jabbed old person probably has about the same individual risk of hospitalisation as an unvaccinated under 30. That's where we're at and will be for at least a couple of years until the 100% vaccine is developed. Ultimately herd immunity may be our only way out for people the vaccine doesn't work perfectly in because we simply can't wait for two more years.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
I'm going clubbing in Durham at the weekend. I'll report back.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
The USA seems to have retained freedom of speech on the pros and cons of the COVID vaccines more effectively than most of Europe, hence one read material like this ... months ago ...
In other words, in 2020-21 the humans are the lab rats.
Lockdown is a disaster and the vaccines are not preventing infections, although they are claimed to reduce the severity. Read the small print you were given before you were jabbed.
Oh, what's that, you weren't given any small print, or you got it after the jab ...? Medical ethics used to require patients to give prior informed consent to any treatment, especially if it carried risks.
Luckily, the number of repurposed generic drugs for COVID is steadily lengthening and they're widely used in developing countries. Some have had less than 10 deaths in 40 years. You'd have to be mad to accept jabs with a roughly 1:30,000 mortality risk.
I don't have time to list all the 100s of URLs but I'm sure if you get COVID despite being jabbed you could get a private 15 min. consultation with Dr T Lawrie, Dr P Kory or Dr P McCullough. Dr Kory is prescribing some of the available drugs to vaccine-injured patients. I'd rather people just studied the evidence and went for the safe cheap treatment in the first place ... if they need it.
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
We're sixteen months into this shit and the vaccines are pretty much rolled out now. We need to find a way to live with this.
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
Well yes, except that our choices have consequences for others when we turn up at casualty and expect treatment ahead of those who have already had their elective treatment deferred.
The way I see this is that those who are double vaxxed are unlikely to get seriously ill or die. Some will require hospitalisation but it is likely to be relatively brief with a favourable outcome.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
The bottom line is that the overwhelming majority of people - and supporters of all parties - do not see Covid and Covid restrictions as a party political issue.
So very few people are going to change their vote based on whatever any party's policies are on Covid restrictions.
Most people think Covid is a bit like murder or theft or fraud - they take it as read that politicians in every party would want to deal with it competently on the basis of evidence - it's not something where political ideology should be relevant.
The only people who do see it as party political are political anoraks and obsessives - of which of course we have a few who post a lot on this site.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
It's just a threat to encourage young people to hit the needle. There's no serious practical prospect of vaxports for nightclubs and the like. That's my take.
My take was the opposite. If this is over, why such clear planning for next winter?
Boris said he doesn’t want to see vaxpass needed to walk up to a bar and buy a beer. Pointedly didn’t rule it out though did he.
The other thing that clearly came across, JVT happy for the nightclub super spreader events to be happening, Vallance against it, very frosty between them all the way through the media conference did you notice?
I didn't watch but I can believe it. Apparently there is no strong consensus across the big players.
But ok I feel a bet coming on. It's the USP of the site after all.
I say by end 2021 there will NOT be vaxports for nightclubs in England.
Even money, charity or site funds, I will accommodate all comers up to £25 each.
Take me to the cleaners!
When you say 'NOT be vaxports for Nightclubs' do you mean:
a) There will be no government mandate for clubs to have them. and most will not be doing it voluntarily
b) There will be no government mandate for clubs to have them. even if some/most will be doing it voluntarily
c) Nightclubs will be closed by government decree again
d) All the nightclubs will have gone out of bissness by then
I think everyone calling this a peak is being extremely premature. We've just thrown open the doors to nightclubs and unlimited internal socialising. I think we're going to see cases a over 100k per day by mid-August but not many resulting hospitalisations as they will be concentrated among under 30s.
Indeed. A fair way off the peak IMO. Today's numbers are almost certainly just noise.
So letting it rip onthe under 30s, some 4 million not jabbed at all, what do we think will happen to them, what indicators should we look at so we know it’s as expected, or better, or worse? What are we calling “not many hospitalisations” or “not many deaths”, or even not many “long covid?”
I think everyone calling this a peak is being extremely premature. We've just thrown open the doors to nightclubs and unlimited internal socialising. I think we're going to see cases a over 100k per day by mid-August but not many resulting hospitalisations as they will be concentrated among under 30s.
Indeed. A fair way off the peak IMO. Today's numbers are almost certainly just noise.
So letting it rip onthe under 30s, some 4 million not jabbed at all, what do we think will happen to them, what indicators should we look at so we know it’s as expected, or better, or worse? What are we calling “not many hospitalisations” or “not many deaths”, or even not many “long covid?”
I mean they could have got them at any time in the last 4 weeks. People have agency.
A question I do not understand the answer to is why is a negative test will not be accepted but two jabs is? We are surely far less likely to be infected by a negative testee than a double jabber.
Is it:
1 To "force" the young to take the vaccine? 2 That LFT test results can easily and deliberately be misreported by the user? 3 Some other reason?
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
We're sixteen months into this shit and the vaccines are pretty much rolled out now. We need to find a way to live with this.
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
Well yes, except that our choices have consequences for others when we turn up at casualty and expect treatment ahead of those who have already had their elective treatment deferred.
The way I see this is that those who are double vaxxed are unlikely to get seriously ill or die. Some will require hospitalisation but it is likely to be relatively brief with a favourable outcome.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
14 ambulances parked outside our ED when I left earlier, unable to offload. 160 patients inside ED.
Earlier in the Commons MPs were joking about the campaigners at Westminster today who were protesting about the lockdown that is no longer in place. In the light of this press conference, perhaps the lockdown alarmism of the fanatics outside parliament might appear slightly less hysterical. Because this was the most downbeat press conference Boris Johnson has hosted, at least since he postponed the move to step 4 of the roadmap, and probably for much longer.
At least when the government postponed step 4 of lockdown easing in England for four weeks, Johnson was reasonably confident of the process being irreversible. Now he is actively planning to curtail a freedom that only became available to clubbers 18 hours ago. He is proposing not just mandatory Covid status certification, something previously ruled out, but a form of Covid status certification (only vaccination would count) that was seen as discriminatory when the idea was first discussed in government. Johnson also refused to rule out mandating these Covid passports for a much wider range of venues. (See 5.39pm.) And Prof Jonathan Van-Tam and Sir Patrick Vallance implied that, if cases are not under control by the end of August, the scientists will be calling for other restrictions to be reimposed.
This was not quite the government hitting the panic button. But it did sound like a government nervously fingering the panic button just to be sure it knows where it is.
I'll repeat something I said the other evening: wait and see what the Government does next when hospital admissions exceed 1,000 per day and then keep rising for a week or two afterwards, if that's what happens. I can see Johnson panicking and starting to reimpose restrictions by the middle of next month, never mind the end.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
I am jabbed. I will never be safer from this damn virus than I am now. But clearly the idea that 'get jabbed and you can be free' is not based on reality. They are not interested in 'free' and nor is HYUFD.
Does anyone seriously think that if the Government had decided against Covid Passports he would not have been on here going on about how right their decision was? He doesn't care what they decide, he just supports whatever it is because it is Tory policy.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
I do think we need to be aware of the immuno-compromised who face a really unpleasant situation. For them, the vaccine may not be an option and they have as much right to be protected as the rest of us.
There's a nasty undercurrent around throwing those not vaccinated to the wolves in terms of healthcare etc. Perhaps but the immuno-compromised deserve better and we need to try harder.
The passport for night clubs by end of September looks to me like it’s targeted on students and freshers week. Threat of no nightlife at Uni will get most of them into the jab clinic pdq.
I'd have nightlubs closed. They're easily the place where infection is almost certain. And I know they sound like fun, but actually I'm not sure I'd miss out if I lost all the time I'd spent in them, and the odd relationships that spun out of that.
I'm going clubbing in Durham at the weekend. I'll report back.
Accoding to Met Office Radar, a band of heavy storms heading east to west across the South Downs (Sussex). LOTS of lightning, according to the lightning monitor.
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
The USA seems to have retained freedom of speech on the pros and cons of the COVID vaccines more effectively than most of Europe, hence one read material like this ... months ago ...
In other words, in 2020-21 the humans are the lab rats.
Lockdown is a disaster and the vaccines are not preventing infections, although they are claimed to reduce the severity. Read the small print you were given before you were jabbed.
Oh, what's that, you weren't given any small print, or you got it after the jab ...? Medical ethics used to require patients to give prior informed consent to any treatment, especially if it carried risks.
Luckily, the number of repurposed generic drugs for COVID is steadily lengthening and they're widely used in developing countries. Some have had less than 10 deaths in 40 years. You'd have to be mad to accept jabs with a roughly 1:30,000 mortality risk.
I don't have time to list all the 100s of URLs but I'm sure if you get COVID despite being jabbed you could get a private 15 min. consultation with Dr T Lawrie, Dr P Kory or Dr P McCullough. Dr Kory is prescribing some of the available drugs to vaccine-injured patients. I'd rather people just studied the evidence and went for the safe cheap treatment in the first place ... if they need it.
I was given about 4 pages of stuff when I was jabbed. You're nuts, best of luck without vaccination against delta 👌👋👋👋
I see the stock market has collapsed. Could Boris Johnson's being recognised as being iredeemably crap have anything to do with it? Losing the Tory lead while he's in charge sounds like free money
So 2 jabs needed for nightclub entry from September, glad to see the PM was reading my posts earlier
And a pub. And a football ground, probably, theatre. Anywhere crowded probably. because the PM refused to rule it out.
Medical apartheid. Checkpoint Charlie Britain.
Get jabbed and then you can be free, if not then you will face quarantine for foreign travel and refusal of entry to nightclubs and other large events. Your choice
No. I have a third choice. I have the choice to fund and vote for a party that will restore my liberty and chuck authoritarian scum like you out of office.
I am not Hyufd’s No. 1 fan on this site.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
I am jabbed. I will never be safer from this damn virus than I am now. But clearly the idea that 'get jabbed and you can be free' is not based on reality. They are not interested in 'free' and nor is HYUFD.
Does anyone seriously think that if the Government had decided against Covid Passports he would not have been on here going on about how right their decision was? He doesn't care what they decide, he just supports whatever it is because it is Tory policy.
Wrong, I was on here earlier and last night advocating Covid passports well before the announcement.
I am a conservative not a libertarian like you and I believe in state power where required to protect others and I am delighted with the new government announcement
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
We're sixteen months into this shit and the vaccines are pretty much rolled out now. We need to find a way to live with this.
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
Well yes, except that our choices have consequences for others when we turn up at casualty and expect treatment ahead of those who have already had their elective treatment deferred.
The way I see this is that those who are double vaxxed are unlikely to get seriously ill or die. Some will require hospitalisation but it is likely to be relatively brief with a favourable outcome.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
14 ambulances parked outside our ED when I left earlier, unable to offload. 160 patients inside ED.
This is not a good time to get ill.
I'm very glad that my stepfather was able to get his cancer treatment in, before this wave took off.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
I do think we need to be aware of the immuno-compromised who face a really unpleasant situation. For them, the vaccine may not be an option and they have as much right to be protected as the rest of us.
There's a nasty undercurrent around throwing those not vaccinated to the wolves in terms of healthcare etc. Perhaps but the immuno-compromised deserve better and we need to try harder.
Whilst I have every sympathy with the restrictions that the immuno-compromised have to put on their lives (my brother is one, with a terminal cancer condition) I cannot accept that all of society must accept serious restrictions on their liberty to protect them. We should help them take precautions. We should deliver food and demand that those in contact are fully vaccinated. But we can't stop living. That is just not possible.
Points to effectiveness against hospitalisation of 91%...
I think 🤔 that is how it works
Yes, something like that. Obviously a full analysis is a lot more complicated than that, because you have to consider whether the jabbed/unjabbed might not be fully representative of the population - they won't be exactly, for example the take-up amongst the most vulnerable is probably higher in each age band, and the take-up of jabs varies by age (and thus prior risk) within those wide bands.
Aren't we back to the March 2020 policy, with what Van Tam has said today?
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation) 2. Crowded settings (with many people around) 3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I feel for your daughter, I really do. But if the double vaccinated are 60% of the people who are so sick that they require hospitalisation we are so far beyond fucked the hospitality industry is the least of our problems.
We're sixteen months into this shit and the vaccines are pretty much rolled out now. We need to find a way to live with this.
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
Well yes, except that our choices have consequences for others when we turn up at casualty and expect treatment ahead of those who have already had their elective treatment deferred.
The way I see this is that those who are double vaxxed are unlikely to get seriously ill or die. Some will require hospitalisation but it is likely to be relatively brief with a favourable outcome.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
Just read the sodding evidence, including the ONS moving average age-adjusted deaths per 100,000.
The figure is broadly level since 2010, with some variation year to year, e.g. 2018-19 (years are June to May) was a very low winter for respiratory deaths, 2019-20 and 2020-21 were higher than average, largely balancing out.
But never let the facts get in the way of a narrative which sells more vaccines and suppresses 25-50 p pills based on safe 40 year old drugs.
It's trebles all round for pharma boards and shareholders. One wonders how much extra as a result will enter the bank accounts of Whitty, Vallance and van Tam, not to mention certain ministers or ex-ministers.
I see the stock market has collapsed. Could Boris Johnson's being recognised as being iredeemably crap have anything to do with it? Losing the Tory lead while he's in charge sounds like free money
Bloody hell, Boris has sent the S&P down by 2%, your insight is incredible.
I see the stock market has collapsed. Could Boris Johnson's being recognised as being iredeemably crap have anything to do with it? Losing the Tory lead while he's in charge sounds like free money
Comments
Under such circumstances one can easily imagine the Government trying to introduce vaxports to as many venues as possible, in order to make the lives of the refusers as difficult as possible.
But on this, he’s bang on and you’re completely wrong.
There is no party that will ‘restore your liberty’ without your being vaccinated. That is the simple tradeoff they have to make to avoid a major social collapse.
Therefore, if you want to end lockdowns, get jabbed.
If you don’t want get jabbed, stop whining about lockdowns.
Your choice.
But could you please spare the rest of us your hypocrisy?
How do you fix the immediate problem that this Government is in power until 2023 at the earliest and is going to insist on proof of vaccination before you can do XYZ.
All the concern seems to be about the winter when there's going to be the flu season etc too - so having the virus burnout now, and having it not spread in the winter, is for the best.
Fathers fought sons, brothers shouted insults at brothers, and grandmother hurled small lavender bag at grandmother.
Boris said he doesn’t want to see vaxpass needed to walk up to a bar and buy a beer. Pointedly didn’t rule it out though did he.
The other thing that clearly came across, JVT happy for the nightclub super spreader events to be happening, Vallance against it, very frosty between them all the way through the media conference did you notice?
Age 50 plus: unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.
Below age 50: 46% unvaccinated but they make up 87% of admissions. 21% of people fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions.
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1417168402075066375
You’ll be saying next that you eat pizza with pineapple while drinking a cider and blackcurrant.
Let me tell you some things I don't want to hear. I don't want to hear Katie Hopkins talking on Twitter about flashing hotel staff while she's in quarantine. I don't want to hear Nigel Farage on GB News. But we live in a free country and so they get to talk and I get to choose whether to listen. This is the bit you seem to struggle with. Freedom means Channel 4 News can say stuff and GB News can say stuff and people can tweet.
I do not believe it is destructive to society if I say something that gets recorded in a SAGE sub-committee meeting and then I say the same thing to the media. I really don't see how your world would work. The media could read bits of SAGE minutes out, using an actor to provide a voiceover, like with Gerry Adams in 1988-94. Is that what you want?
Government decision making has reasons to be confidential. Inputs to Government decision making should be open.
I have, I'm sure, missed many other interesting parts of this discussion, but my hand hurts now, so I will go cook supper.
The social collapse and economic collapse is coming anyway, courtesy of a government that cannot pay its way because of its own catastrophic policy decisions.
If i am reading this correctly, that still doesn't tell you what proportion are over / under 50. So 43% of over 50 admissions are fully vaccinated, but what proportion of over 50s make up the 750 daily admissions? Or is the 43% of the total of all admissions? Because you can reas it as 34% unvaxxed, 43% fully vaxxed, 100-34-43 are the single dose...
🚨| NEW Jonathan Van-Tam advises Brits to try to avoid the "Three Cs", where COVID is most likely to spread:
1. Closed settings (with low ventilation)
2. Crowded settings (with many people around)
3. Close-contact settings (especially with strangers)
This will damage places like pubs just at the moment the government is withdrawing financial support.
Do these vaccines bloody work or not? If they don't why are restrictions being lifted? If they do, why this nonsense?
I can see Daughter's business being damaged all over again ... just when she was beginning to see a way out of the last year's nightmare. Grrr .....
I fear that the 60% number will be reported irresponsibly.
--AS
This is obvious to anyone of average or above average intelligence looking objectively at how things were moving in both April 2020 and January this year. Indeed, arguably moving too slowly made it much more severe than it need to have been, but I doubt if those are the ‘catastrophic policy decisions’ you refer to.
I think you are of roughly average intelligence. But you are clearly not looking at the issue objectively. You want the world to be a certain way, therefore it must be so. Any facts that contradict it must be wrong.
Well, it’s a free country and you’re entitled to that view. Just as the rest of us are entitled to be exasperated that the most aggressive anti-lockdown campaigner is making it more difficult to end lockdown.
As they say in Chicago, don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
In more normal times, most people experience fewer random close contacts and they are mostly restricted to smallish regular groups. If those groups contain people who, for whatever reason (job, general approach to precaution taking etc) are more likely to contract Covid they (as a group) may be more likely to have already had it so in normal times the pingdemic would not have happened to the same extent, even with rising cases as they are.
Put crudely, vaccine passports are liable to be used on the doors of venues like bars and nightclubs that are not frequently visited by octogenarians, but supermarkets (let alone GP surgeries) will be blissfully exempt.
Be prepared for enormous amounts of howling about structural racism if vaxports come to pass though, bearing in mind that some demographics have a stronger tendency to dig their heels in over getting jabbed than others.
If we had this figure in the standard stats on the dashboard then we wouldn't be worrying over someone's pronunciation.
If a population is 95% double-dosed and the vaccine is 90% effective against hospitalisation, then you'd expect close to a 2:1 ratio of admissions to be from the double-dosed. So maybe it is 60%, and it reflects that most of the youngsters have some protection now too?
The cheek of scummy libertarian Contrarian calling us authoritarians scum! Let you know contrarian, it’s authoritarians like us, through our civic and moral duty, that saves the country from cavaliers like you just destroying it!
It’s not like the sting in the tail of freedom day is the day freedom died.
PB Panic Syndrome makes me want to avoid the site – which I don't want to do because so much of the discourse on here is great.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1626672300&zoom=8&lon=-0.36&lat=51.24
(popes shit in woods)
Or do they just get cross?
(a) People who are more likely to wet over these sorts of settings (and, if they dare go out at all, would rather have their own table with about twenty feet of empty space around them in all directions,) are liable to skew heavily towards the aged end of the spectrum, who aren't going to be the key demographic for most hostelries
(b) People are also going to be listening a bit less to the experts and making their own judgements from now on, I think. If my trip to the supermarket earlier is anything to go by, for example, the relaxation of the face mask rules in shops has been entirely ignored. OTOH, people who were otherwise inclined to go out and do things they enjoy before today aren't liable to be put off by the good professor and his three C's in any significant numbers.
What is a "metropolitan professional agenda of never open" meant to mean? People who work at home don't want things to stay shut - they want to enjoy life, just not the tedious, stressful, uncomfortable, expensive commute whether by car, rail, bus or whatever.
Those days are gone, now, as someone once said.
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1417168408823713795?s=20
The virus is going to spread, some people are going to die, some businesses are going to fail. Its absolutely shit but there's no alternative.
If people want to go to bars and restaurants, if people want to go clubbing, then they should. If people want to hide away from crowded, close-contact closed settings then that's their choice too.
We need the freedom to choose and take responsibility for our own lives. Life must go on.
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1415672461111271424?s=19
I don’t disagree with you that the shock to the economic system of not just shut downs, the expense added to borrowing of the lockdown, but also the reevaluation of work and life makes the economic situation a sort of elephant in the room - there’s post after post on this blog about restrictions and freedoms, but the bigger question is what happens to the economy in the coming years. It needs growth, production. A service economy needs customers, it doesn’t need slack or erratic growth or continued inflation.
It looks dodgy to me.
But ok I feel a bet coming on. It's the USP of the site after all.
I say by end 2021 there will NOT be vaxports for nightclubs in England.
Even money, charity or site funds, I will accommodate all comers up to £25 each.
Take me to the cleaners!
F@!King, F&@kwitted, F&@king Motherf&$kers.
We need a revolution. With a lot of unnecessary and way over the top violence thrown in for good measure.
https://trialsitenews.com/did-pfizer-fail-to-perform-industry-standard-animal-testing-prior-to-initiation-of-mrna-clinical-trials/
In other words, in 2020-21 the humans are the lab rats.
Lockdown is a disaster and the vaccines are not preventing infections, although they are claimed to reduce the severity. Read the small print you were given before you were jabbed.
Oh, what's that, you weren't given any small print, or you got it after the jab ...? Medical ethics used to require patients to give prior informed consent to any treatment, especially if it carried risks.
Luckily, the number of repurposed generic drugs for COVID is steadily lengthening and they're widely used in developing countries. Some have had less than 10 deaths in 40 years. You'd have to be mad to accept jabs with a roughly 1:30,000 mortality risk.
I don't have time to list all the 100s of URLs but I'm sure if you get COVID despite being jabbed you could get a private 15 min. consultation with Dr T Lawrie, Dr P Kory or Dr P McCullough. Dr Kory is prescribing some of the available drugs to vaccine-injured patients. I'd rather people just studied the evidence and went for the safe cheap treatment in the first place ... if they need it.
The way I see this is that those who are double vaxxed are unlikely to get seriously ill or die. Some will require hospitalisation but it is likely to be relatively brief with a favourable outcome.
Those who choose not to be vaxxed are much, much more at risk. Roughly 20x as much. If they are young and healthy that means their risk is still not massive but it is significantly more than it would be with vaccinations. It is in our interests to persuade these muppets to get vaccinated. If they don't hell mend them. They can take the risk in dying. Having given them the choice we need to get on with our lives. But because they will turn up in casualty in disproportionate numbers it is in our interests to do what we can persuade them to stop being so stupid.
That should be the thrust of government policy in my opinion.
So very few people are going to change their vote based on whatever any party's policies are on Covid restrictions.
Most people think Covid is a bit like murder or theft or fraud - they take it as read that politicians in every party would want to deal with it competently on the basis of evidence - it's not something where political ideology should be relevant.
The only people who do see it as party political are political anoraks and obsessives - of which of course we have a few who post a lot on this site.
a) There will be no government mandate for clubs to have them. and most will not be doing it voluntarily
b) There will be no government mandate for clubs to have them. even if some/most will be doing it voluntarily
c) Nightclubs will be closed by government decree again
d) All the nightclubs will have gone out of bissness by then
33/16 2.06
43/79 0.55
92% effective against hospitalisation in over 50s
87/46 1.89
9/33 0.27
4/21 0.19
90% under 50s
Points to effectiveness against hospitalisation of 91%...
I think 🤔 that is how it works
14 ambulances parked outside our ED when I left earlier, unable to offload. 160 patients inside ED.
This is not a good time to get ill.
Earlier in the Commons MPs were joking about the campaigners at Westminster today who were protesting about the lockdown that is no longer in place. In the light of this press conference, perhaps the lockdown alarmism of the fanatics outside parliament might appear slightly less hysterical. Because this was the most downbeat press conference Boris Johnson has hosted, at least since he postponed the move to step 4 of the roadmap, and probably for much longer.
At least when the government postponed step 4 of lockdown easing in England for four weeks, Johnson was reasonably confident of the process being irreversible. Now he is actively planning to curtail a freedom that only became available to clubbers 18 hours ago. He is proposing not just mandatory Covid status certification, something previously ruled out, but a form of Covid status certification (only vaccination would count) that was seen as discriminatory when the idea was first discussed in government. Johnson also refused to rule out mandating these Covid passports for a much wider range of venues. (See 5.39pm.) And Prof Jonathan Van-Tam and Sir Patrick Vallance implied that, if cases are not under control by the end of August, the scientists will be calling for other restrictions to be reimposed.
This was not quite the government hitting the panic button. But it did sound like a government nervously fingering the panic button just to be sure it knows where it is.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/19/uk-covid-live-news-england-lifts-most-remaining-restrictions-as-poll-suggests-many-voters-see-it-as-wrong
I'll repeat something I said the other evening: wait and see what the Government does next when hospital admissions exceed 1,000 per day and then keep rising for a week or two afterwards, if that's what happens. I can see Johnson panicking and starting to reimpose restrictions by the middle of next month, never mind the end.
Does anyone seriously think that if the Government had decided against Covid Passports he would not have been on here going on about how right their decision was? He doesn't care what they decide, he just supports whatever it is because it is Tory policy.
There's a nasty undercurrent around throwing those not vaccinated to the wolves in terms of healthcare etc. Perhaps but the immuno-compromised deserve better and we need to try harder.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-07-19&id=1d72be9d-b78d-43c1-bf94-aa376b441b0f&details
I am a conservative not a libertarian like you and I believe in state power where required to protect others and I am delighted with the new government announcement
Foxy, best of luck for the coming storm.
--AS
The figure is broadly level since 2010, with some variation year to year, e.g. 2018-19 (years are June to May) was a very low winter for respiratory deaths, 2019-20 and 2020-21 were higher than average, largely balancing out.
But never let the facts get in the way of a narrative which sells more vaccines and suppresses 25-50 p pills based on safe 40 year old drugs.
It's trebles all round for pharma boards and shareholders. One wonders how much extra as a result will enter the bank accounts of Whitty, Vallance and van Tam, not to mention certain ministers or ex-ministers.